[HN Gopher] Did the early medieval era ever take place?
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Did the early medieval era ever take place?
        
       Author : memorable
       Score  : 260 points
       Date   : 2022-07-06 05:37 UTC (17 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (jonn.substack.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (jonn.substack.com)
        
       | AlphaGeekZulu wrote:
       | [...]You can buy a copy from all good bookshops, and also a bad
       | one.[...]
       | 
       | This is brilliant!
        
       | charles_f wrote:
       | > It only works if you focus solely on western Europe, where the
       | decline of Rome left a nasty gap in the records. Elsewhere - in
       | Tang China, Abbasid Persia and in the rest of the Islamic world,
       | which only developed in the seventh century - history continued
       | apace.
       | 
       | Sounds to me like Europe moved at a relativistically faster speed
       | than the rest of the world which accounts for the missing time.
       | People in the 1500s just didn't have the tools to explain it yet.
        
       | vintermann wrote:
       | > no conspiracy theory has yet emerged arguing that the Empire
       | never really fell at all
       | 
       | The author needs to become familiar with the works of Philip K.
       | Dick. Maybe more of a religious epiphany than a conspiracy
       | theory, but he's famous for saying "the Empire never ended".
        
         | permo-w wrote:
         | well it is true that there is a central power in Rome, set up
         | by Romans, exerting huge influence across the world. whether
         | it's accurate to describe it as an empire is another matter
        
           | Cthulhu_ wrote:
           | It's not as overt as it used to be - and I don't think it's a
           | singular empire anymore either - but there are still Powers
           | That Be everywhere, vying for control and influence across
           | multiple dimensions - military supremacy, economy,
           | information, etc.
        
             | indigochill wrote:
             | But that's been going on since at least ancient Egypt so we
             | might as well say the Egyptian Empire never ended if that's
             | your standard.
        
               | throwaway_4747 wrote:
               | Well technically not the Egyptians, but they were a huge
               | part of it in their culture. All one needs to do is look
               | into Mystery Babylon and the Illumined ones. Very deep
               | rabbit hole and is very interesting to learn about.
        
               | vintermann wrote:
               | I think Philip K. Dick would have been quite OK with the
               | suggestion that the Empire which never ended was also the
               | Egyptian one.
        
       | brundolf wrote:
       | I have to think part of what makes conspiracy theories take off
       | is that they're _fun_. This one was so much fun to think about,
       | that we could 've been so wrong about something so big, that it
       | was right under our noses
       | 
       | Not unlike creepypasta; injecting some mystery and wonder into
       | what can otherwise be a bland, even bleak world, where it feels
       | like everything's been explained away already
        
       | verisimi wrote:
       | > What if those authorities were wrong? What if they were lying,
       | even? Can we be sure? Can we ever truly know?
       | 
       | > Well: yes, we can. The Phantom Time Hypothesis is nonsense.
       | 
       | Hmm. I disagree that we can know. We might hypothesise that this
       | is the case, we might evaluate some evidence to better than other
       | evidence. But "knowing" is hard - we can only know very few
       | things.
       | 
       | In my view, we can only say we know those facts in the world that
       | we have personally experienced. The rest is hearsay. If you read
       | something from a book, or even several books, or even a TV
       | program, none of those can confirm the truth of a fact.
        
       | retrac wrote:
       | Slightly related, correlating different ancient calendars that
       | weren't ever explicitly lined up at the time in historical
       | records is a delightful, if esoteric topic. While there may not
       | be any missing time from recent European history, it's a lot
       | hazier if you go even further back.
       | 
       | For example, Mesopotamia laid dead for 3000 years before being
       | rediscovered. Their civilizations were long gone when the Greeks
       | and Romans started leaving written texts. Akkad and Sumeria were
       | rediscovered anew in the early 20th century, even more completely
       | anew than Ancient Egypt had been a century before that. Along
       | with that came uncertainty of the dates and calendars. Even
       | today, we are still not sure of the dating of Old Babylon, let
       | alone the first cities of Sumeria another thousand years before
       | that. Today there are three competing interpretations, attempts
       | to to align the day-by-day written records (often not overlapping
       | from varying locations) with a constant chronology. Was Hammurabi
       | born in 1810 BC, 1760 BC, 1830 BC? We have exact dates given for
       | when he did things. But we don't know what those refer to!
       | Similar ambiguities exist for Ancient Egypt. [1]
       | 
       | That's not the case with the Mayan long calendar! They were
       | diligent astronomers, more so than the Babylonians, if we go by
       | what records they left of observed events. The body of evidence
       | over the last ~30 years has mounted to become nearly irrefutable.
       | There's only one possible concordance that fits, and it fits the
       | date exactly. To the point it's safe to say it's historical fact
       | that Pakal the Great was born 9.8.9.13.0 8 Ahaw 13 Pop (19 March
       | 603 AD), acceded to the throne 9.9.2.4.8 5 Lamat 1 Mol (26 July
       | 615) and died 9.12.11.5.18 6 Etz'nab 11 Yax (26 August 683).
       | 
       | [1]
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronology_of_the_ancient_Near...
        
       | kennywinker wrote:
       | One thing I know about conspiracies is it's exceedingly hard to
       | talk about them without spreading them. To that effect, I now
       | believe the early medieval period is a hoax.
        
         | throwaway378037 wrote:
         | I'm not saying it was a hoax. But have you ever actually SEEN
         | an "early medieval period"? Thought not.
        
           | kennywinker wrote:
           | Clearly invented by big theme restaurant to sell more dinner
           | theatre.
        
             | rendall wrote:
             | Those of us in the know call this powerful, shadowy cabal
             | Big Theme Resta.
        
             | optimalsolver wrote:
             | Cable Guy flashbacks.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | wrp wrote:
         | I sense an effect in need of a name: _Any discussion of a
         | conspiracy theory, no matter how critical, only serves to
         | spread belief in it._
        
           | jacquesm wrote:
           | That's called the Winkler effect after the great conspiracy
           | spreader of the 21st century, Kenny Winkler.
           | 
           | See wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winkler_Effect
        
             | whitesilhouette wrote:
             | Page does not exist?
        
               | jacquesm wrote:
               | Definitely not getting a 404.
        
           | TremendousJudge wrote:
           | A memetic hazard?
        
           | Cthulhu_ wrote:
           | Conspiracy theories are a conspiracy to keep people
           | distracted from the TRUTH.
        
             | NoGravitas wrote:
             | This, but unironically. For example, "antisemitism is the
             | socialism of fools"[1]. People believing antisemitic
             | conspiracy theories that purport to explain why their lives
             | suck is very good at preventing them from learning about
             | the actual political economy of why their lives suck.
             | Everyone knowing the actual processes that create class
             | oppression would make it possible to change things. So
             | conspiracy theories are actually very useful for
             | maintaining the status quo.
             | 
             | [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antisemitism_is_the_soci
             | alism_...
        
         | Tepix wrote:
         | I believe that your theory is true and thus we're doomed to
         | spread conspiracy theories ad nauseam.
        
           | abirch wrote:
           | Yes, I can't get the conspiracy theory that Michael Jordan
           | was betting on basketball games, got caught, but suspending
           | him out would have hurt basketball so he played baseball to
           | serve out his sentence.
           | 
           | It doesn't make sense as he should have been banned outright
           | but the theory has infected my brain.
        
       | dietrichepp wrote:
       | The "phantom time hypothesis" is a central point in one of the
       | better Twilight Zone (1985--or 1688, depending on who you
       | believe) episodes, called Paladin of the Lost Hour. Written by
       | Harlan Ellison, starring Danny Kaye and Glynn Turman. In this
       | story, precisely one hour was lost during the switch to the
       | Gregorian calendar.
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paladin_of_the_Lost_Hour
       | 
       | You can find it on YouTube.
        
         | verisimi wrote:
         | You found the lost hour on YT? Well done!!
        
           | drewzero1 wrote:
           | I've had lots of lost hours on YouTube, but not many of them
           | (directly) involved the twilight zone.
        
       | JPLeRouzic wrote:
       | A few years ago I took biology courses at the local university.
       | One emeritus professor told us that nothing happened in medicine
       | between antiquity and the 1500' when smart guys (from his French
       | hometown) taught the world the marvels of anatomy.
       | 
       | I asked what he thought of what happened in the Arabic and
       | Iranian regions during that time, he replied: _Nothing
       | significant_.
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicine_in_the_medieval_Islam...
        
         | kspacewalk2 wrote:
         | >I asked what he thought of what happened in the Arabic and
         | Iranian regions during that time, he replied: Nothing
         | significant.
         | 
         | >https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicine_in_the_medieval_Islam..
         | .
         | 
         | I mean... based on that article alone, that seems to be
         | substantially true, if overly harsh? Half of it are
         | "discoveries" which were lost or disregarded and had to be "re-
         | discovered", and IMO those are not discoveries at all since
         | they change or affect nothing. The Book of Optics seems to be
         | the only notable exception in that contributions section.
        
           | ineedasername wrote:
           | There is a difference to be made between specific discoveries
           | and overall progress as a world civilization.
           | 
           | It seems strange to say that nothing was discovered simply
           | because it didn't have a lasting impact. It may be accurate
           | to say the Western world hadn't discovered it, or learned of
           | that discover by others, or that the discovery was lost, but
           | not that it wasn't actually discovered.
           | 
           | It's the pinnacle of "Not Invented Here"
           | 
           | Discovery and influence or impact simply aren't the same
           | things.
        
           | gilleain wrote:
           | How were they lost or rediscovered?
           | 
           | "Muhammad ibn Zakariya al-Razi (Latinized: Rhazes) (born 865)
           | was one of the most versatile scientists of the Islamic
           | Golden Age ... Many of his books were translated into Latin,
           | and he remained one of the undisputed authorities in European
           | medicine well into the 17th century."
           | 
           | "Ibn Sina, more commonly known in west as Avicenna was a
           | Persian polymath and physician of the tenth and eleventh
           | centuries. He was known for his scientific works, but
           | especially his writing on medicine."
           | 
           | "Ibn Butlan, ... was an Arab physician who was active in
           | Baghdad during the Islamic Golden Age.[64] He is known as an
           | author of the Taqwim al-Sihhah (The Maintenance of Health
           | tqwym lSH@), in the West, best known under its Latinized
           | translation, Tacuinum Sanitatis (sometimes Taccuinum
           | Sanitatis)."
           | 
           | More than this, a lot of the scholarship in the Islamic world
           | preserved discoveries by the Greeks:
           | 
           | "Galen is one of the most famous scholars and physicians of
           | classical antiquity. Today, the original texts of some of his
           | works, and details of his biography, are lost, and are only
           | known to us because they were translated into Arabic"
           | 
           | Or did the Greeks not 'actually' discover anything, either?
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | Not to neglect Al-Haytham, inventor of science itself, as
             | presented in his book, Optics.
        
           | ch4s3 wrote:
           | This seems incorrect. The idea of pharmacology as a separate
           | discipline and profession comes from the Islamic golden
           | age[1]. Optics lead to the microscope, so that's pretty big.
           | The work in translating and preserving Greek medical works
           | was mostly undertaken during the Islamic golden age. The
           | Ottomans pioneered clean water as a source of health and the
           | regulation of medicine as a profession.
           | 
           | [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5723183/#:~:
           | tex....
        
           | belugacat wrote:
           | > substantially true, if overly harsh
           | 
           | That tracks with the professor being French.
        
           | tshaddox wrote:
           | > Half of it are "discoveries" which were lost or disregarded
           | and had to be "re-discovered", and IMO those are not
           | discoveries at all since they change or affect nothing.
           | 
           | Surely the relevant consideration should be how much the
           | discovery affected people at the time, not whether the
           | discovery was eventually lost and needed to be re-discovered.
           | Consider that all discoveries we have made could eventually
           | be lost. It certainly doesn't diminish the historical
           | significance of the discovery of penicillin if that discovery
           | is lost in the population bottleneck caused by the 2095 A.I.
           | War and only re-discovered 100 years after that.
        
         | willis936 wrote:
         | The simple narrative taught in every history class is
         | demonstrably false and pedagogically classist.
         | 
         | https://youtu.be/oDQXFNWuZj8
        
           | mtmail wrote:
           | Video shows a comedian playing piano and singing to a sock.
           | Am I missing an important point?
        
             | aaaronic wrote:
             | But the sock puppet sings exactly the quoted line...
        
         | throw0101a wrote:
         | > _I asked what he thought of what happened in the Arabic and
         | Iranian regions during that time, he replied:_ Nothing
         | significant.
         | 
         | If a tree in falls in the forest, and no hears it, does it
         | really matter?
         | 
         | There were many curious minds that made useful discoveries, but
         | by ~1200 CE the general zeitgeist was to discourage scientific
         | inquiries:
         | 
         | *
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Incoherence_of_the_Philoso...
         | 
         | Further, I don't think there was a 'critical mass' of people
         | exploring and exchanging ideas (either because of a too-small
         | population, or difficulties in communication), and so if you
         | did _just happen_ to make discoveries... there was no one to
         | tell, and your book simply languished on a shelf somewhere
         | unnoticed, as from your link:
         | 
         | > _Ibn al-Nafis discovered that the blood in the right
         | ventricle of the heart is instead carried to the left by way of
         | the lungs.[70] This discovery was one of the first descriptions
         | of the pulmonary circulation,[70] although his writings on the
         | subject were only rediscovered in the 20th century,[71] and it
         | was William Harvey 's later independent discovery which brought
         | it to general attention.[72]_
         | 
         | If a tree in falls in the forest, and no hears it, does it
         | really matter?
        
           | blowski wrote:
           | If a tree falls in the forest, but no Europeans / Christians
           | heard it, does it really matter?
           | 
           | Yes. Yes it does.
        
             | throw0101a wrote:
             | Really? So Ibn al-Nafis discovered pulmonary circulation
             | first:
             | 
             | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicine_in_the_medieval_Is
             | lam...
             | 
             | What difference did his discovery make in the development
             | of medicine? Who built on it? Which therapies were
             | invented? If his writings sat on a shelf, read by no one,
             | why did they matter?
             | 
             | Contrast that with the various works from the Muslim world
             | on optics that did contribute the building of understanding
             | in the greater world.
        
               | blowski wrote:
               | You link a page that mentions maybe 100 significant
               | medieval Islamic researchers and innovations that had a
               | huge impact on the world of medicine. But you pick out
               | the only one described as having "limited impact on
               | contemporaries" as evidence that it was all a waste of
               | time?
        
           | mrwnmonm wrote:
           | My God, some things never die.
           | 
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJ_YDx2mtF0
           | 
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0rXaQzc0KA
        
             | elsjaako wrote:
             | What do you mean with "some things never die"?
             | 
             | The first video I didn't watch fully (because it's 50 min
             | long), but seems to be an analysis of Al-Ghazali's work in
             | general. Are we supposed to make our own links to the point
             | your parent poster was making? Maybe you can provide a
             | timestamp for the relevant part?
             | 
             | The second one is just an argument for the existence of
             | god, and I don't see what it has to do with this argument.
        
               | mrwnmonm wrote:
               | The OP was saying "but by ~1200 CE the general zeitgeist
               | was to discourage scientific inquiries," and that was
               | something an old orientalist said about Al-Ghazali, that
               | Muslims Scholars dismissed because it is nonsense. But
               | thanks God it came from a Western scholar (because the
               | west never listens), Frank Griffel has two important
               | books about this, and one of them focuses on Al Ghazali,
               | that discusses that book in a more rational (not a
               | classic orientalist hateful way), and it is not just
               | Frank, that theory isn't accepted anymore.
               | 
               | The second link I find to be a little bit ironic, is that
               | one of the top Christian American scholars borrow a good
               | argument to respond to atheists "IN THAT BOOK" that his
               | civilization (in the colonial days) used against Muslims.
               | (Of course, all respect to him to be honest about the
               | source)
               | 
               | Muslim Philosophers were using Greek philosophy to deny
               | some things in Islam, and Al-Ghazali proved they were
               | wrong. These attacks happened from all sides all the
               | time, most people are not aware of that.
               | 
               | But what do you think Muslims should feel about that
               | accusation?
               | 
               | As I said in another comment, Europe had already won in
               | empirical science, why do they need to spread these kind
               | of lies?
        
           | Cthulhu_ wrote:
           | > If a tree in falls in the forest, and no hears it, does it
           | really matter?
           | 
           | But people DID hear it, just not in big parts of Europe where
           | most of "our" history is taught / comes from. It's very
           | eurocentric to assume that just because "we" didn't hear
           | about it, it didn't exist. Civilization was miles ahead
           | outside of Europe for a long time.
        
             | libraryatnight wrote:
             | Is it a case here that "we" just didn't hear about it, or
             | that the impact of the knowledge never made it outside the
             | community/region. Did it matter to the people living it?
             | Seems like absolutely yes. Did it endure beyond that
             | community or region? Maybe they do not mean "insignificant"
             | altogether and simply mean insignificant within the context
             | of the ideas and knowledge that endured and were built upon
             | to arrive where we are?
             | 
             | I'm genuinely curious as I feel like this touches on
             | something broader. I think about this with literature and
             | poetry. There's a wonderful effect as you read through time
             | where there are various dialogues happening. People sort of
             | reacting to each other and speaking across generations and
             | cultures. Ginsberg reads differently when you understand
             | his relationship with the Greek epics and other poets
             | before him. I guess my point is, and I may have bungled it
             | spectacularly and just get told I'm an ass, something might
             | not be insignificant unless evaluated as part of a larger
             | context and historic dialog.
             | 
             | edit: removed my ignorant line about the book of optics.
        
               | gilleain wrote:
               | > The wiki seems to indicate not except the book of
               | optics?
               | 
               | Not sure how you reached that conclusion. Perhaps it
               | would be helpful to search for 'Latin' in that wiki page.
               | There's a reason why so many of these Islamic figures had
               | Latinised names - Muhammad ibn Zakariya al-Razi ->
               | 'Rhazes' or Ibn al-Haytham -> 'Al-hazen'. Their works, as
               | with other scholars, were translated into Latin so that
               | they could be read in Europe.
               | 
               | There's a reason why the word 'Algorithm' starts with
               | 'Al' - the etymology comes from the name 'Muhammad ibn
               | Musa al-Khwarizmi'.
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algorithm#History
        
               | libraryatnight wrote:
               | Yeah that's a bad read on my part - sorry for that.
               | Removed that bit :) And thank you for the information!
        
             | throw0101a wrote:
             | > _Civilization was miles ahead outside of Europe for a
             | long time._
             | 
             | Yes, and what happened to it? It withered after
             | flourishing. Almost all of discoveries made anywhere else
             | in the world were _meaningless_ because they ended up not
             | changing anything.
             | 
             | Astronomy was practiced in all the major civilizations. The
             | telescope _just happened_ to be invented in Europe in
             | ~1600, and it brought to Mughal India and Imperial China
             | (and spread by  'osmosis' to the Ottomans): _they were not
             | interested in it_.
             | 
             | Certain _individuals_ took it up, but _as a whole_ those
             | other societies disregarded it.
        
               | robonerd wrote:
               | > _Certain individuals took it up, but as a whole those
               | other societies disregarded it._
               | 
               | Just like today? How many people today own a telescope?
               | It's a niche tool useful to some but irrelevant to most.
        
             | jacquesm wrote:
             | Indeed, and if not for the Enlightenment it would still be.
             | That's what made room for science on a much larger scale
             | and in contradiction with lots of things that were
             | considered established knowledge than ever before. The
             | power of science is such that a resource poor part of the
             | world managed to overtake the rest in many ways in a couple
             | of centuries.
        
               | NoGravitas wrote:
               | Not only resource-poor, but also a cultural backwater
               | burdened with a kind of religious extremism foreign to
               | much of the rest of the world.
        
               | mgaunard wrote:
               | Did you conveniently ignore Islam?
        
               | jacquesm wrote:
               | Cultural backwater right up to that point, and religious
               | extremist right up to that point. Many countries/regions
               | never went through such a phase and that is what allowed
               | Europe to do what it did, it essentially leapfrogged from
               | the dark ages to modernity in an extremely short span of
               | time while elsewhere not much changed. It also enabled a
               | period of expansionism and engendered some of the worst
               | atrocities committed by mankind today, but the scientific
               | and cultural progress can not be denied.
        
               | ROTMetro wrote:
               | Why do you add the 'today' caveat? I think you again need
               | to add an asterix to 'some of the worst atrocities
               | committed' to instead be commonly recorded or the 'if the
               | tree fell' analogy. What did the sacrifice culture of the
               | Aztecs require to be sustained? Many many peoples of
               | Europe were wiped from the earth (Old Prussians as an
               | easy example). It wasn't about killing non-Europeans as
               | Europeans were just as happy to genocide Europeans. How
               | many many black slaves on whole went to China/East but
               | because they used castration a permanent population was
               | never established. Did this result in more or less
               | suffering than slavery on the eastern seaboard of the
               | Americas? Don't forget for a thousand years before
               | Europeans went international slave hunting Europeans were
               | the hunted (to the point they have mythical an anti-Santa
               | that slave hunts for little European boys and girls). How
               | many struggles like the Sioux almost genociding the Crow
               | happened in the Americas that we don't know about? We
               | have the same principle as being discussed happen in
               | history discussions, only they are used to make European
               | violence look like an outlier that it might not have
               | been.
        
               | jacquesm wrote:
               | Because I don't think we've seen the worst yet.
        
             | Balero wrote:
             | "If a tree falls in someone else's forest, and I don't hear
             | it, do I even care." I think sums it a bit more accurately.
        
             | makomk wrote:
             | I'm pretty sure the point of the comment that you're
             | replying to is that, even in the non-European parts of the
             | world where things like this were discovered, those
             | discoveries were lost and forgotten and the significance of
             | those discoveries only became obvious after they were
             | rediscovered in Europe once society was structured in a way
             | that lead to people communicating and building on them.
        
         | mrwnmonm wrote:
         | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18822953/
        
           | kspacewalk2 wrote:
           | What else of that calibre?
        
             | mcguire wrote:
             | To disprove a universally quantified statement, only a
             | single counter-example is necessary.
        
             | mrwnmonm wrote:
             | You are missing the point, I am not trying to say that
             | Muslims achieved more in empirical science than Europe, I
             | would be an idiot to suggest that. I am saying, it is
             | pathetic for a winner to feel the need to say a lot of
             | nonsensical stuff about other people.
        
         | tick_tock_tick wrote:
         | That's harsh, I don't know much on the subject but I assume
         | Wikipedia is missing a lot or at-least glosses over it? It
         | almost seems impossible they'd have accomplished so little in
         | that field.
        
       | chx wrote:
       | > for example, a coalition of rulers around the turn of the
       | second millennium - Pope Sylvester II, Holy Roman Emperor Otto
       | III and Byzantine Emperor Constantine V, say - who conspired to
       | fix the calendar
       | 
       | Aside from the nations the author already mentioned we have the
       | Korchak culture (sixth and seventh century) and later the Szeligi
       | culture (situated in roughly present day Ukraine and Poland,
       | respectively) and faking an archeological culture is fairly
       | impossible even today. Yes there were quite a few others in the
       | "early Slavs" era and area but I mention these two because of the
       | amount of findings we have for them.
        
       | Taylor_OD wrote:
       | This is one of my favorite stupid conspiracies and one that a lot
       | of people havnt heard of.
        
       | Joker_vD wrote:
       | Ha, amateurs. Look at the work of a _professional_ (that is, he
       | made it his source of income) conspiracy theorist:
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_chronology_(Fomenko)
        
         | the_only_law wrote:
         | > The conspiracy theory further proposes that world history
         | prior to AD 1600 has been widely falsified to suit the
         | interests of a number of different conspirators including the
         | Vatican, the Holy Roman Empire, and the Russian House of
         | Romanov, all working to obscure the "true" history of the world
         | centered around a global empire called the "Russian Horde".
         | 
         | Sounds like he just played too much eu4.
        
         | stackbutterflow wrote:
         | That's actually what I thought the article was about. Odd that
         | there wasn't any mention of it.
        
         | golergka wrote:
         | He is actually a quite well-known and professional
         | mathematician. Too bad it's not what he's known for anymore.
        
         | andrewla wrote:
         | Some of the New Chronology is delightfully whacky. In
         | particular I love the idea of historical events documented by
         | independent sources result in appearing to be two or more
         | events that cause the timeline to be expanded. One example is
         | that Suleiman the Magnificent and Solomon were the same person,
         | just documented from two different perspectives. And thus the
         | Hagia Sofia and Solomon's Temple are the same building.
         | 
         | His criticisms of radiocarbon dating are interesting (while not
         | completely supportive of his hypothesis). But it is an
         | interesting rabbit hole to dig into; the relationship between
         | radiocarbon dating and dendrochronology, and the attempt to get
         | an accurate historical record of carbon isotopic composition
         | over the last couple of thousand years is a surprisingly
         | difficult problem, and in many cases has circular dependencies
         | on known ages of artifacts.
        
           | mike_hearn wrote:
           | Yeah, this stuff is whacky but really fun to read about. Even
           | though most of it is surely wrong it leads to all sorts of
           | fascinating rabbit holes.
           | 
           | I wrote a three part series where I summarize some of the
           | more interesting pseudo-history theories that are out there:
           | 
           | https://blog.plan99.net/meta-historical-conspiracies-
           | part-1-...
           | 
           | https://blog.plan99.net/meta-historical-conspiracies-
           | part-2-...
           | 
           | https://blog.plan99.net/meta-historical-conspiracies-
           | part-3-...
           | 
           | PTH doesn't really make an appearance because it's actually
           | one of the less interesting theories. I don't believe these,
           | but the facts the authors bring up to argue for their
           | position are always interesting to learn about. Part 3
           | discusses some of the issues with 'scientific' dating methods
           | and covers the circularity problem you discuss.
        
         | Semiapies wrote:
         | Beat me to it; the New Chronology is wonderfully bonkers.
        
           | NoGravitas wrote:
           | Related, but Tartaria is another fun rabbit hole to wander
           | down.
        
             | Semiapies wrote:
             | Oh, wow. That is...a Hell of a thing. Thanks for the tip!
        
       | lukeqsee wrote:
       | Clever presentation of the basics of how conspiracy theories
       | begin, are substantiated, and then can (often) be refuted by
       | zooming out and regaining a little perspective.
        
         | blowski wrote:
         | Foucault's Pendulum by Umberto Eco is a fantastic novel for
         | doing this. You find yourself sucked right into the conspiracy,
         | only for him to then reveal the facts that destroy it.
         | 
         | There's a subplot on how the number of letters in a document
         | proves the Templars possession of the Holy Grail. A character
         | then shows how a random shopping list follows a similar
         | pattern.
        
           | tsimionescu wrote:
           | One of the most memorable lines from the novel for me was
           | something along the lines of "if you lend too much credence
           | to symbolism, you end up believing the male penis is only
           | there as a phallic symbol" (said by the main character's
           | girlfriend, if I remember correctly).
           | 
           | It's also fun to read Umberto Eco's take on Dan Brown and his
           | Da Vinci's Code. Eco was joking that he feels he should get
           | some credit for the whole thing, as Dan Brown is so clearly
           | just a character from Foucault's Pendulum.
        
           | abnercoimbre wrote:
           | Aw man, this should have had a spoiler warning. Could be a
           | good feature for HN.
        
           | InitialLastName wrote:
           | Save yourself a step and read the Illuminatus! trilogy first.
           | 
           | There's a clear lineage of bonkers conspiracy theories
           | getting more popularly approachable from Illuminatus! to
           | Foucault's Pendulum to Dan Brown.
        
             | blowski wrote:
             | The Illuminatus trilogy is pretty avant garde in style,
             | whereas Foucault's Pendulum is fairly standard prose.
             | Really depends on what type of book you want.
        
               | InitialLastName wrote:
               | Yes, and Foucault's pendulum is very literary research
               | oriented (long expositions of guys surfing their
               | zettelkasten), where Dan Brown's books are standard pop
               | fiction action fare.
               | 
               | Every 15 years or so, we get a new, more popularly
               | approachable entry in the "Templars/Illuminati are real"
               | mystery thriller genre. We're about due another one, but
               | I'll bet I missed it because it's in the Young Adult
               | Fiction section.
        
         | corsac wrote:
         | > can (often) be refuted by zooming out and regaining a little
         | perspective.
         | 
         | I think this is exactly why it is so maddeningly hard to engage
         | critically with those who espouse these theories - they keep an
         | 'authoritative' death-grip on the frame.
        
       | rado wrote:
       | Cool movie idea.
        
       | ideamotor wrote:
       | "no conspiracy theory has yet emerged arguing that the Empire
       | never really fell at all"
       | 
       | Really, no Philip K Dick VALIS mention? The book that repeats
       | "the empire never ended" and argues that much of the time between
       | now and the was "false?"
       | 
       | See also: https://philipdick.com/resources/miscellaneous/the-
       | religious....
        
         | Finnucane wrote:
         | Clearly this guy has not seen the pink beam of light.
        
         | bpiche wrote:
         | When I read it it didn't seem like it argued that the time
         | between now and then was 'false'. VALIS argues that the time
         | and events between now and then are constantly being
         | 'laminated' (PKD's term) onto the long now. Iirc Horselover Fat
         | develops the ability to see the layers of history laminated
         | onto the present and concludes that the Empire never ended.
         | Caveat lector, I haven't read the other two books in the VALIS
         | trilogy.
        
         | gpderetta wrote:
         | first thing that came to my mind as well. The missing time is
         | also on-topic.
        
         | x86x87 wrote:
         | PKD does not argue that the actual roman empire did not fell.
         | It's most around the idea of the empire and the existence of an
         | entity that continuously makes our life miserable. Keeping us
         | closed in a metaphorical black iron prison. From that POV the
         | empire never ended - even worse: nowadays we have multiple
         | flavours of it.
        
         | jrumbut wrote:
         | Tongue firmly planted in cheek but...
         | 
         | There's a guy in Rome still holding one of the Roman emperors'
         | titles, pontifex maximus (held by some of them anyway).
         | 
         | Meanwhile, there's a powerful army marching all over the world
         | with an eagle standard and a commander-in-chief who recognizes
         | the Roman guy's authority in some matters but not others. He's
         | trying to deal with rising food and oil prices while organizing
         | resistance to an invader from the east and warding off a
         | domestic usurper.
         | 
         | When did the Roman empire fall again?
        
           | Perceval wrote:
           | https://twitter.com/publicanthony/status/1542922977481728000
        
       | dncornholio wrote:
       | I reckon there were people who lived under different empires and
       | kings, who did not notice one thing.
        
       | corsac wrote:
       | > It takes a bunch of 'facts' - some of which are accurate but
       | entirely explicable, some of which are just plain wrong - and
       | knits them together into an ostensibly compelling narrative.
       | 
       | I feel a need to add that conspiracy theorists deserve no
       | grudging credit for "ingeniously" pulling this off, any more than
       | sociopaths deserve credit for "ingeniously" manipulating people.
       | With little enough intellectual integrity, any dope can do it.
       | 
       | As an off-topic aside, did you know that the Wuchang Uprising (a
       | key 1911 anti-Qing rebellion in _Wuhan_ ) had a coronavirus on
       | its flag?[0] It's worth asking why the media never reported on
       | it, and what shadowy Tongmenghui revolutionaries are behind the
       | events of the past few years.
       | 
       | [0]
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuchang_Uprising#/media/File:C...
        
         | headsoup wrote:
         | If we find out that one of the lab technicians in Wuhan that
         | handled the viruses was a blood descendant of the Wuchang,
         | well... :D
        
       | midislack wrote:
       | Conspiracy theories like this are great fun. They also cause
       | certain people to pop out of the woodwork and reveal themselves
       | in interesting ways. If you're fishing for certain kinds of deep
       | sea critters there is no better bait.
        
       | kochikame wrote:
       | Well, I mean, in the sense that basically all historical ages are
       | invented by people long after that time and would not have been
       | recognized as such by the people who lived through it, then, no.
       | 
       | The early moderns didn't know they were in early modernity. The
       | fall of the Roman Empire was constructed as a narrative long
       | after the facts became clear. We don't know what age we are
       | living in right now that will someday be named by future
       | historians (probably as the "last bit before the climate went
       | tits up" or words to that effect)
        
         | NoGravitas wrote:
         | Imagine thinking there will be future historians.
         | 
         | The crows will have an interesting time explaining the
         | worldwide ash horizon in the soil a million years from now,
         | though.
        
         | int_19h wrote:
         | For more on how what we _now_ term  "the fall of the empire"
         | manifested itself to common citizens at the time:
         | 
         | https://acoup.blog/category/collections/fall-of-rome/
        
         | closedloop129 wrote:
         | >The Late Latin adjective modernus, a derivation from the
         | adverb modo "presently, just now", is attested from the 5th
         | century, at first in the context of distinguishing the
         | Christian era from the pagan era. In the 6th century,
         | Cassiodorus appears to have been the first writer to use
         | modernus "modern" regularly to refer to his own age.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modernity#Etymology
        
         | bryanrasmussen wrote:
         | >"last bit before the climate went tits up"
         | 
         | indeed, Great tits could be wiped out by climate change in the
         | near future https://nypost.com/2020/11/11/great-tits-could-be-
         | wiped-out-... (first line: We mean the birds, dirtbags.)
        
         | permo-w wrote:
         | the Victorians could have made a fairly safe bet that they were
         | living in the era of Victoria
        
       | samatman wrote:
       | > _no conspiracy theory has yet emerged arguing that the Empire
       | never really fell at all_
       | 
       | "To fight the Empire is to be infected by its derangement [...]
       | Whoever defeats the Empire becomes the Empire; it proliferates
       | like a virus [...] thereby it becomes its enemies [...] the
       | Empire never ended." --Philip K. Dick aka Horselover Fat
       | 
       | Seriously, if the author is into weird conspiratorial thinking,
       | the late work of PKD is a must.
        
       | toast0 wrote:
       | Time began January 1, 1970 UTC. Anything before then didn't
       | really happen.
        
         | bhaak wrote:
         | Time is signed though so time actually began at
         | 1901-12-13T20:45:52Z.
        
           | kevin_thibedeau wrote:
           | Unless your time oracle is NTP in which case time is unsigned
           | starting in 1900.
        
           | aidenn0 wrote:
           | On some systems errno is not set by a failed call to time()
           | in which case the only way to check for an error is if the
           | returned value is (time_t)-1 which makes it impossible to
           | unambiguously represent 1 second before the epoch.
        
           | bregma wrote:
           | Time is not guaranteed to be signed. W Hat you have there is
           | undefined behaviour.
        
             | fluoridation wrote:
             | Surely it's unspecified behavior, at worst.
        
               | bregma wrote:
               | The signedness of time_t is unspecified. If you rely on
               | it being signed and overflowing so it goes back to before
               | January 01, 1970, well, that's living on the edge....
        
             | Karellen wrote:
             | It's probably more likely to be _implementation-defined
             | behaviour_ (as with the signedness of  'char') rather than
             | _undefined behaviour_.
             | 
             | The third alternative being _unspecified behaviour_ - see
             | comp.lang.c FAQ 11.33 for more info:
             | https://c-faq.com/ansi/undef.html
        
         | mrwnmonm wrote:
         | You have to find this joke on HN :)
        
         | blowski wrote:
         | And will end 19 January 2038 03:14:07 UTC.
        
           | Dylan16807 wrote:
           | If there is nothing outside that range, then what do you do
           | with 0x80000000? Reject it outright?
        
             | blowski wrote:
             | Send it to the very fires of hell from whence it came. Or
             | use 64 bits to store timestamps.
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | Well, 64 bit timestamps also have that number...
        
               | Tepix wrote:
               | Which number? 2038? Because that's what you are replying
               | to.
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | 0x80000000, the number I asked what to do about, if it's
               | neither in the past nor in the future (along with all
               | other numbers between it and 0xFFFFFFFF). 0x80000000 is
               | the number they said to send to hell "or" use 64 bits to
               | store.
               | 
               | But storing it in 64 bits still leaves you with the same
               | number waiting for interpretation. (Possibly two numbers
               | depending on sign extension settings.) So do you still
               | need to send it to hell, or what happens differently?
        
               | cercatrova wrote:
               | Nit, whence already means "from where," saying from
               | whence is saying "from from where"
        
               | blowski wrote:
               | https://www.worldwidewords.org/qa/qa-fro2.htm
               | 
               | > I will lift up mine eyes unto the hills, from whence
               | cometh my help. (Psalm 121:1)
               | 
               | If the idiom is correct enough for the King James Bible,
               | it's good enough for me as a Hacker News comment.
        
               | samatman wrote:
               | Johnson's Dictionary called 'from whence' "A vi[c]ious
               | mode of speech", so this is a very old argument!
        
               | blowski wrote:
               | I normally try to irritate pedants, that criticise
               | everything, by finding more not less mistakes, such as
               | lots of prepositions to end my sentences with.
        
               | cercatrova wrote:
               | Another nit, there was never a mistake with ending
               | sentences with prepositions, it comes from Latin where
               | you can't do that but John Dryden in the 1600s wanted to
               | bring that to English, but no one really cared.
               | 
               | Ironic, isn't it? (I say this jokingly, I get your
               | irritation with pedants, sometimes I feel the same way.)
        
               | cercatrova wrote:
               | It's not good enough for me though, won't you think of
               | your poor reader? /s
        
               | shakna wrote:
               | With that argument coming from the 13th Century, I'd say
               | that the democratic nature of English has killed it. So
               | to be more pedantic, the 'from' is optional. Not
               | required, but neither is it wrong.
        
               | Tepix wrote:
               | 64bit? Not so fast! We could just add a flag to signify
               | "time after 2038" and "time before 1901". That would give
               | us another 68 years into the future and the past. Doesn't
               | that seeme like a great solution? /s
        
               | fendy3002 wrote:
               | Ha, make it multiplicative, so each number is 68 years.
        
               | xorcist wrote:
               | Ah! The infamous 33 bit timestamps!
        
               | kuschku wrote:
               | Ahhh, the good old IPv4+ solution
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | Have you seen how ext4 stores timestamps?
               | 
               | They borrowed 2 bits off the nanoseconds field to do
               | basically that.
        
               | mgaunard wrote:
               | People usually use 64-bit timestamps, but for higher
               | resolution.
               | 
               | For example, nanoseconds. That's about up to 2500 or so?
        
           | twic wrote:
           | No, we'll just to back to the start and live through the
           | 1970s again.
        
             | blowski wrote:
             | Makes me think of the TV show Life on Mars.
        
             | CSMastermind wrote:
             | I've been consuming a lot of older American pop culture
             | recently and one thing that struck me was the vast
             | difference in tone the 70s had.
             | 
             | As a child of 90s (technically born in the 80s) I had a
             | sense of the differences between 80s culture and 90s
             | culture. I also mentally had some sense that the 50s were a
             | different time, but my brain lumped the 60s and 70s
             | together.
             | 
             | But going back and reading books, watching TV shows, and
             | listening to music from both eras there's a notable and
             | stark contrast between the two decades.
             | 
             | Frankly I have to say that the 70s are far and away my
             | least favorite era of American popular culture. It doesn't
             | fit my tastes at all, to the point where it almost feels
             | like a 'lost decade' to me.
             | 
             | In short, I'd dread having to live through it if we were to
             | revert.
        
               | mgaunard wrote:
               | I have about the same age as you (maybe a bit older) yet
               | I don't share any of those feelings.
               | 
               | If anything 70s music is some of my favourite.
        
             | loudmax wrote:
             | Looking forward to seeing Led Zeppelin concert. That's if
             | my parents will allow me go.
        
       | draw_down wrote:
        
       | antognini wrote:
       | The point about the Gregorian calendar being off by only 10 days
       | instead of the expected 13 is especially interesting because it's
       | easy to see how you could regard it as a sort of "smoking gun" of
       | the Phantom Time Hypothesis. The supposed lack of archaeological
       | evidence is suggestive, but can be pretty easily dismissed with
       | "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence." But here you
       | have a prediction that about 300 years are missing and this would
       | directly explain the observed discrepancy in the drift of the
       | calendar.
       | 
       | As the author points out the problem is resolved because the
       | Gregorian calendar reform only intended to reset the calendar
       | back to the time of the Council of Nicaea, not the date when the
       | Julian calendar was originally adopted.
       | 
       | It's a neat example of how a theory's smoking gun can sometimes
       | have an entirely unrelated explanation and a warning that even
       | when you think you've found conclusive proof, it's important to
       | keep digging.
        
         | jack_pp wrote:
         | Absence of evidence actually is (weak) evidence of absence.
         | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mnS2WYLCGJP2kQkRn/absence-of...
        
           | marcosdumay wrote:
           | > (weak)
           | 
           | It's actually as strong as your expectation of the evidence
           | being there. If you are absolute sure of the evidence, look,
           | and don't find anything, this is very strong evidence of the
           | absence.
           | 
           | But well, on this case the absence is quite expected too.
        
           | alxlaz wrote:
           | There is no absence of evidence, not by a long shot. There
           | are fewer written records in the traditional sense (books,
           | letters, legal documents concerning things like transfer of
           | property) but there is no shortage of inscriptions on various
           | sorts of things, for example -- not to mention every other
           | kind of historical evidence and, of course, the fact that
           | some aspects of early medieval Western chronology can be
           | cross-checked against contemporary sources in North Africa
           | and the Middle East. We call it "the Dark Age" by comparison
           | with, say, Late Antiquity, but even so, we have vastly more
           | evidence about what happened in this age in Western Europe
           | than we have about what happened in various ages of Antiquity
           | all over the place, and no one thins those were made up.
           | 
           | As for the article you linked to, that kind of probabilistic
           | approach sort of works for recent events. Applying it to
           | things that happened a long time ago, where the presence or
           | absence of evidence is correlated with a whole lot of other
           | things, from court historians making shit up to cows tripping
           | up over a lamp light and burning whole cities, is a pretty
           | futile exercise.
        
             | groffee wrote:
             | > There are fewer written records in the traditional sense
             | 
             | But still more written than you could ever hope to read in
             | your lifetime.
        
           | croes wrote:
           | Is there such thing as weak evidence?
        
             | dalbasal wrote:
             | Sort of.. at least there is in the scientific tradition.
             | 
             | Your theory predicting reality is generally weak evidence.
             | It opens your theory to invalidation if the prediction
             | fails, but does not rule out hypothetical alternative
             | theories that also make the same prediction.
        
               | samatman wrote:
               | Theories aren't evidence at all, what could you mean by
               | this?
        
               | pessimizer wrote:
               | A particular theory is a glue potentially connecting some
               | number of observations. The observations + theory are
               | evidence.
               | 
               | The reason that a messy pool of blood on the floor is
               | evidence of violence is the theory that the blood came
               | out of a person in a messy way.
        
             | jstanley wrote:
             | Evidence that irrefutably proves something is very strong
             | evidence.
             | 
             | Evidence that kind of points towards something, but
             | inconclusively, is weak evidence.
             | 
             | For example, if 100 witnesses saw the accused murder the
             | victim, and they're all credible, and they tell
             | corroborating stories, that's pretty strong evidence.
             | 
             | If 1 person thinks he saw the accused murder the victim,
             | from the other side of a car park, but he has bad eyesight
             | anyway and it was dark and raining, then that's weak
             | evidence. It's not _nothing_ , it's still _evidence_ , but
             | it is weak.
        
             | golergka wrote:
             | If you're bayesian.
        
               | rootsudo wrote:
               | Wouldn't that mean the quantity vs quality of
               | conspiracies though?
        
             | samatman wrote:
             | This seems to be equivalent to asking if there is any such
             | thing as strength of evidence at all, and so yes, of
             | course. The evidence that 100mg of cyanide will kill you is
             | very strong, the evidence that seed oils cause inflammation
             | is weak, even though there's a lot of it.
        
         | kmeisthax wrote:
         | For me, the thing that kills the theory for me is the idea
         | that, _in the middle of western Europe being about as
         | politically stable and integrated as modern Afghanistan_ , all
         | the warlords pillaging the country to kill each other were able
         | to not only unanimously agree on "let's change the year to a
         | nice round number", but were also able to coordinate this
         | without leaving _any_ historical records of it.
         | 
         | Here's the thing about conspiracies: they have a shelf life.
         | The amount of time you can keep a conspiracy secret is bounded
         | by the number of conspirators, how well you can get them to
         | shut up, and how long it has been since the conspiracy
         | occurred. You can take a secret only you know to your grave,
         | but work in a group of ten and _someone_ will confess before
         | their death. Bring in hundreds or thousands and the conspiracy
         | will be blown open accidentally before you can even execute on
         | it.
         | 
         | Now think of how many people had to cooperate to change
         | something as simple and fundamental as the passage of recorded
         | history. Hell, forget the fact that these were all angry,
         | violent warlords; just think of how many scribes, monks, and
         | bureaucrats would all have to remember to write 1000 instead of
         | 736 whenever they wrote a date. It only takes one slip-up to
         | reveal the fraud to archaeologists in the far future, even if
         | they all agreed that they wanted to live in the nice round-
         | number millennium. And nobody would be trying to protect
         | against that because nobody would be thinking, "how do we hide
         | this from 21st century archaeologists trying to discover our
         | time crimes?"
        
           | User23 wrote:
           | > Here's the thing about conspiracies: they have a shelf
           | life. The amount of time you can keep a conspiracy secret is
           | bounded by the number of conspirators, how well you can get
           | them to shut up, and how long it has been since the
           | conspiracy occurred. You can take a secret only you know to
           | your grave, but work in a group of ten and someone will
           | confess before their death.
           | 
           | As you effectively prove, any long running conspiracy must
           | have tools to discredit defectors. I'm willing to bet dollars
           | to donuts that if, hypothetically, some WEF flunky went on
           | twitter and started posting about a global depopulation
           | conspiracy, that the prestige media would either ignore or
           | deny ("debunk") it and any alternative sources would be
           | smeared and delegitimized somehow.
           | 
           | One possible tool for discrediting tales of one's real
           | conspiracy would be spreading stories of various fake
           | conspiracies and then lumping them all together as nonsense.
        
             | synu wrote:
             | This only works as long as the defectors have no evidence,
             | right? That seems like it would be harder to guarantee.
        
               | User23 wrote:
               | So long as the defectors have no _credible_ evidence.
               | Evidence and people both are observably fairly easily
               | discredited for the majority of the population.
        
               | synu wrote:
               | Isn't that a good thing? I can deliver a bunch of non-
               | credible evidence for basically anything I make up. It's
               | unfortunate if a person is blowing a whistle on something
               | real but can't actually prove it, but the alternative is
               | just believing whatever fits your biases. You end up with
               | those alternative news sites where everyone just believes
               | everything they hear and there are vast interconnected
               | conspiracies running everything.
        
               | ospzfmbbzr wrote:
               | Non-credible is totally subjective. You are always taking
               | someones word unless you check for yourself. Who do you
               | believe? It's not the alternative it's the way things
               | are.
               | 
               | Evidence to the contrary doesn't discredit anything in
               | the minds of most people... They are more likely to
               | simply attack the person putting forth the evidence for
               | causing them cognitive dissonance migraines.
        
               | synu wrote:
               | Credibility of evidence is not totally subjective. I (and
               | you, and anyone) can personally prove in a variety of
               | ways that the earth is not flat, but still many people
               | believe there is a conspiracy that the earth is round.
               | 
               | Of course they all tell each other that all facts are
               | subjective anyway and wouldn't it be cool and interesting
               | if you were in on a big secret and everyone else except
               | you and your new friends were sheep.. oh and by the way
               | did you know that it's actually lizard people who started
               | the idea that the earth was round? Doesn't that feel
               | right and would explain why your life hasn't turned out
               | the way you wanted? And so on.
               | 
               | In this case I'm explicitly talking about making up non-
               | credible evidence. If everything is subjective then
               | whatever I made up is as good as anything else, I just
               | need to tune it to your biases to make it feel as truthy
               | as possible. But if you believe me then you'll start to
               | have problems when you need things to actually be true
               | (like running a space program or military for example).
        
               | ospzfmbbzr wrote:
               | Or no ability to speak -- like Neo.
        
             | ospzfmbbzr wrote:
             | Muddy the waters... then you label anyone who notices as a
             | water purist, and tell the dumb ones that the water purists
             | are the ones who muddied the waters.
        
             | kmeisthax wrote:
             | The problem with conspiracy _theories_ is that they tend to
             | be less useful as a way to sus out actual abuses of power
             | and more useful as an ink blot test. People see what they
             | _want_ to see, because humans are creatures of fiction that
             | can 't stand the thought of living in an objective reality
             | where coincidences are just coincidences and the most
             | boring explanation is probably true.
             | 
             | The World Economic Forum is just a bog-standard capitalist
             | outfit. Their more out-there views are not particularly
             | divorced from the rentier capitalism of the New Gilded Age.
             | To be unambiguous about it, that means a heady mix of
             | international megacorporations, uncensored corporate
             | speech[0], copyright maximalism, and the Brussels
             | Effect[1]. The Occam's Razor explanation for the WEF is
             | that greedy corporations that want to maximize profits are
             | going to be greedy and profit-maximizing - in other words,
             | it's the "capitalist agenda".
             | 
             | But if you have particular kinds of brainworms[2], you're
             | going to ignore the greed that you don't want to talk about
             | and start making up reasons for their actions wholly
             | unrelated to what they actually think. For example, if you
             | think white people are being "replaced", then you'll look
             | past the obvious explanation and into the fringes of the
             | ink blots, and come back thinking that the WEF was created
             | by the powerless to oppress the powerful with... power they
             | don't have.
             | 
             | In cases where conspiracies have _actually_ tried to
             | discredit defectors, it usually fails. In fact, it fails so
             | hard that it becomes a meme, like  "Russia denies" or "I
             | did not have sexual relations[3] with that woman". Most
             | actual conspiracies are just not that well thought out[4]
             | enough for this to work, while the people writing the
             | conspiracy theories are actually _overthinking_ things.
             | 
             | What _actually_ kills conspiracy theories is conflicting
             | information - i.e. the conspiracy theory not actually
             | lining up with reality. There will always be people who
             | still buy it, though, because conspiracy theories that are
             | not true always substitute veracity with narrative
             | salience. In fact, sometimes being widely known to be false
             | _benefits_ the conspiracy theory, because now you can work
             | the debunking of obvious lies into your conspiracy
             | narrative and make it more salient than ever. And there 's
             | no actual conspiracy on the debunking side, either. You are
             | not being smeared by the media because they're all in on
             | trying to hide the truth - remember, coordination leaves
             | evidence. You are being smeared by the media because you
             | are on the side of narrative fiction.
             | 
             | [0] Sometimes complained about under the banner of "money
             | is not speech"
             | 
             | [1] The process by which treaties agreed to by rich
             | countries tie the hands of non-party countries by way of
             | tolerance.
             | 
             | [2] Typically the "50s red scare" strain of anticommunism
             | 
             | [3] it's only sex if the balls are touching - Bill Clinton
             | 
             | [4] Reason being that being in a position of power gives
             | you symptoms of brain damage. In order to implement a
             | successful conspiracy you need power, and that power will
             | blunt your reasoning over time.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | zmgsabst wrote:
               | > One possible tool for discrediting tales of one's real
               | conspiracy would be spreading stories of various fake
               | conspiracies and then lumping them all together as
               | nonsense.
               | 
               | To which you replied with a strawman:
               | 
               | > For example, if you think white people are being
               | "replaced", then you'll look past the obvious explanation
               | and into the fringes of the ink blots, and come back
               | thinking that the WEF was created by the powerless to
               | oppress the powerful with... power they don't have.
               | 
               | ...in a very detailed comment trying to portray the WEF
               | as not a cabal subverting democracy with oligarchical
               | acts.
               | 
               | I think it's interesting that your comment can be
               | understood as what the GP was discussing in action.
        
               | tsimionescu wrote:
               | > ...in a very detailed comment trying to portray the WEF
               | as not a cabal subverting democracy with oligarchical
               | acts.
               | 
               | I'm not sure how you got that from GP's comment, but they
               | were saying the exact opposite about the WEF: it is just
               | a way for greedy corporations to maximize profit by co-
               | opting governments and international institutions to do
               | their bidding. That's what they meant by "corporate free
               | speech" and the Brussels effect.
        
               | zmgsabst wrote:
               | > it is just a way for greedy corporations to maximize
               | profit by co-opting governments and international
               | institutions to do their bidding
               | 
               | Except we know that's not true, eg, in the case of
               | pushing DIE which has catastrophically reduced profits in
               | Disney, WarnerMedia, and Netflix. And more broadly ESG
               | scores, which have led to the ridiculous virtue signaling
               | we see.
               | 
               | The "boring" explanation is that it's a cabal by the
               | people involved to implement their vision -- not that
               | there's some magic corporation that's always maximizing
               | its value through its drone agents. That's just as much a
               | fiction as anything else.
               | 
               | To portray the WEF as "those greedy corporations!"
               | minimizes the nature of what people there are doing by
               | creating fictional entities who are the _real_ actors.
        
               | kmeisthax wrote:
               | Rich people pushing a liberal agenda are still rich
               | people. The "capitalist agenda" I mentioned in my prior
               | comment still applies and supersedes the virtue
               | signaling.
               | 
               | For example, Bill Gates, the EU, and the MPAA all stepped
               | in to tell President Biden to get lost when he proposed
               | suspending COVID-19 vaccine patents. They worked
               | tirelessly to water down and chip away at every WHO
               | vaccine program that might have meant them either having
               | to negotiate a rate or not enforce patents in certain
               | countries. If this was just about pushing a liberal or
               | left-ish agenda at the _expense_ of profits, they would
               | have just licensed the patents at zero cost to anyone in
               | Africa with an mRNA printer[0], and then lobby the
               | government to suspend patent protection so the laggards
               | couldn 't get a competitive advantage with a proprietary
               | vaccine.
               | 
               | Things like ESG scores are offered because people don't
               | want to invest in oil companies and investment brokers
               | can make more money if they offer that option to people
               | who would otherwise not have invested in the stock
               | market. This is free-market capitalism working "as
               | intended" - people see the long-term risks of bad
               | environmental management and divest themselves from it.
               | 
               | I have no idea what "DIE" means or how it has
               | catastrophically hurt Disney profits.
               | 
               | [0] (aggressively pirated grunge metal plays in the
               | background)
               | 
               | You wouldn't steal a car. You wouldn't steal a handbag.
               | 
               | Downloading COVID-19 vaccines is stealing.
        
               | User23 wrote:
               | > humans are creatures of fiction that can't stand the
               | thought of living in an objective reality where
               | coincidences are just coincidences and the most boring
               | explanation is probably true.
               | 
               | Alternately, they can't stand living in an objective
               | reality where powerful people are systematically up to
               | bad things and they're helpless to do anything about it.
               | Given the response to the comment you're replying to,
               | even the possibility that there might be any kind of
               | conspiracies is displeasing to many.
               | 
               | As for the most boring explanation probably being true,
               | well that would be a terrible heuristic to use for any of
               | the hard sciences. I don't see why it would be the case
               | for the considerably more complex and chaotic social
               | sciences.
               | 
               | > The World Economic Forum is just a bog-standard
               | capitalist outfit.
               | 
               | That's certainly what the prestige media will tell you!
               | In any event I just tossed it out there as an example.
               | 
               | > Typically the "50s red scare" strain of anticommunism
               | 
               | You may want to pick another example, given that there
               | were in fact communist sympathizers in the State
               | Department at the time.
        
               | XorNot wrote:
               | Sympathisers aren't implicitly traitors, and the idea
               | that there was going to be one global communism, with
               | power centred in Moscow was thoroughly discredited by
               | history since.
        
               | User23 wrote:
               | You're giving a wonderful example of the phenomenon I'm
               | discussing. You learned, probably in grade school, about
               | McCarthyism and whatnot and now you're ironclad convinced
               | the whole thing was a paranoid fantasy conspiracy theory
               | or if there is any truth to it at all that it was
               | insignificant. Meanwhile, there are a large number of
               | known communist traitors and spies from the era[1] and
               | probably many more that weren't discovered. It's been the
               | better part of three decades since the Venona Papers were
               | declassified. This is ironclad history[2].
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Eastern_Bloc_ag
               | ents_in...
               | 
               | [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Americans_in_th
               | e_Venon...
        
           | ornxka wrote:
           | >I know the resurrection is a fact, and Watergate proved it
           | to me. How? Because 12 men testified they had seen Jesus
           | raised from the dead, then they proclaimed that truth for 40
           | years, never once denying it. Every one was beaten, tortured,
           | stoned and put in prison. They would not have endured that if
           | it weren't true. Watergate embroiled 12 of the most powerful
           | men in the world-and they couldn't keep a lie for three
           | weeks. You're telling me 12 apostles could keep a lie for 40
           | years? Absolutely impossible.
           | 
           | - Charles Colson, advisor to Richard Nixon during the
           | Watergate scandal
        
             | zionic wrote:
        
               | kmeisthax wrote:
               | ...and Chelsea Manning, and Julian Assange, and Mark
               | Klein, and Leslie Cauley, and Russ Tice, and Clare Short,
               | and[0][1]...
               | 
               | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_surveillance_dis
               | closure...
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_surveillance_dis
               | closure...
        
               | int_19h wrote:
               | Why leak it more than once, though? At this point, the
               | facts are already well-established. It's just that we as
               | a society apparently just don't care enough to hold our
               | rulers accountable (with torches and pitchforks if
               | necessary).
        
               | labster wrote:
               | Nah, it leaks. Besides the big leaks like Chelsea
               | Manning, there are constant small leaks: things like
               | anonymous sources to the papers, and via Congressmembers
               | (who collectively leak like a sieve). A lot of that is
               | intentional.
        
               | connicpu wrote:
               | I think the perspective the people involved have matters
               | a lot. If you just view what you're doing as your normal
               | job, you don't even need to lie about what's going on,
               | you just don't even talk about it because it's a mundane
               | detail. When you conspire to do something everyone
               | involved knows is illegal and wrong, your guilt weighs
               | more heavily and you start slipping.
        
             | MisterBastahrd wrote:
             | And that's why Jim Jones was truly God. Man got 900 people
             | to literally drink the kool-aid.
        
               | InitialLastName wrote:
               | > kool-aid.
               | 
               | You say literally, but the Kraft Heinz company would like
               | you to know that it definitely also might have been
               | Flavor Aid.
        
               | MisterBastahrd wrote:
               | Makes sense. Socialists ain't got enough money for
               | koolaid.
        
             | lisper wrote:
             | Hard to tell if you or Charles Colson is/was being serious,
             | but for the benefit of the many, many people who actually
             | do believe this: there is not a single account of an
             | apostle dying for their beliefs that was written by someone
             | who 1) was contemporaneous with the apostles and 2) put
             | their name to the account. All of the supposed first-hand
             | accounts are anonymous.
        
             | upwardbound wrote:
             | There's a fringe hypothesis that historical Jesus (the
             | human person behind the legends) survived crucifixion,
             | perhaps aided by secretly-sympathetic guards, and was in a
             | near-coma for 3 days in the tomb but then returned to
             | alertness and was helped out of the tomb (perhaps by
             | sympathetic guards).
             | 
             | The Roman official who ordered Jesus' execution didn't
             | really want him dead, so perhaps he gave off-the-books
             | instructions to the guards that "if this person were to
             | miraculously survive being crucified, and escaped his tomb
             | in a few days, well there's nothing you could have done to
             | stop a miracle. His tomb that of course is temperate and
             | happens to have water supplies inside. There's nothing you
             | could have done. Wink wink."
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pilate%27s_court
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swoon_hypothesis#Supporting_a
             | r...
             | 
             | "It was uncommon for a crucified healthy adult to die in
             | the time described by the Gospels; the Gospel of Mark
             | reports that Jesus was crucified at nine in the morning and
             | died at three in the afternoon, or six hours after the
             | crucifixion. ... The average time of suffering before death
             | by crucifixion is claimed by some to have been observed to
             | be 2-4 days. ... Modern scholarship has also cast some
             | doubt on the generally agreed depiction of Jesus being
             | nailed to a cross, as opposed to the more common method of
             | having a victim's hands and feet being tied to a cross."
             | 
             | If dying normally took 2-4 days, it's possible that a
             | sympathetic guard could have declared him dead after only 6
             | hours on the cross (maybe after he first fell unconscious)
             | and then transferred him to the tomb in the hopes that he
             | might recover in the remaining 1.5-3.5 days, perhaps
             | moistening his lips in the process.
             | 
             | If Jesus were tied to the cross rather than nailed to it,
             | there's really not any plausible thing that could have
             | killed him in just 6 hours of mild to moderate blood loss +
             | heat exhaustion. It's much more plausible that he would
             | have fallen unconscious while maintaining a heartbeat and
             | weak breathing.
             | 
             | I used to be Christian and am now more of an agnostic who
             | wants to believe in a benevolent God, and it would be
             | really cool if something like this did happen. Maybe Jesus
             | was just a person but a good one who tried to do good and
             | got lucky through some series of events like this.
             | 
             | I recently unfortunately had a loved one who went through
             | the dying process in hospice care, and it was horrifying to
             | watch, but it took multiple days, about 5 days, and 6 hours
             | just isn't plausible. 6 hours on the cross + a recovery
             | from near-death three days later in a cool tomb makes a lot
             | of sense if someone gave him water on the way to the tomb.
             | Or maybe the tomb had a hidden supply of water in it, like
             | a puddle big enough to drink.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_Jesus
        
               | BrandoElFollito wrote:
               | > who wants to believe in a benevolent God
               | 
               | What would be a benevolent God, in the context of our
               | history and present? (wars, torture, floods, famine, ...)
               | 
               | (I am myself an atheist, curious of what drives people to
               | believe in a deity)
        
           | starwind wrote:
           | > Here's the thing about conspiracies: they have a shelf
           | life. The amount of time you can keep a conspiracy secret is
           | bounded by the number of conspirators, how well you can get
           | them to shut up, and how long it has been since the
           | conspiracy occurred. You can take a secret only you know to
           | your grave, but work in a group of ten and someone will
           | confess before their death. Bring in hundreds or thousands
           | and the conspiracy will be blown open accidentally before you
           | can even execute on it.
           | 
           | That's what they want you think!
        
             | kmeisthax wrote:
             | If someone has the means to compel the silence of millions
             | then we're not talking about a conspiracy anymore. We're
             | talking about the SCP Foundation. The conspiracy will grow
             | to encompass the entire planet, after which there will be
             | no one to hide the conspiracy from[0].
             | 
             | [0] https://scp-wiki.wikidot.com/everyone-knows
        
           | t_mann wrote:
           | Fyi, someone actually built a formal model to demonstrate
           | that large conspiracies are probabilistically doomed to get
           | exposed:
           | 
           | https://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2016/0127/Can-
           | mathematics-...
           | 
           | However, the model makes a few simplifying assumptions, eg a
           | single leak is sufficient to expose the conspiracy, and I
           | think it also doesn't cover mortality. A conspiracy that
           | wasn't exposed up until the death of all in the know would
           | probably be considered as succesful by the model. I think
           | it's fair to assume that the probability of getting exposed
           | at least significantly drops at that point.
        
             | kmeisthax wrote:
             | This is specifically the mathematical model I'm
             | referencing, I should probably save this so I remember what
             | to cite next time.
             | 
             | While there probably are conspiracies that would take
             | multiple leaks to fully expose, one thing to note is that
             | leaks tend to be correlated with one another. Newsworthy
             | reporting on conspiracy leaks inspires copycat leaks[0] -
             | either to get one's fifteen minutes of fame or to jump ship
             | before the prosecutions come about.
             | 
             | A conspiracy that is "successful" in the sense that it was
             | taken to the grave can still get exposed, though. Sure, the
             | members of the conspiracy can't leak it themselves, but
             | they also can no longer destroy any physical evidence or
             | information they left behind. So that evidence could itself
             | be considered a conspirator that cannot die and will
             | eventually leak.
             | 
             | [0] This also applies to school shootings.
        
           | dehrmann wrote:
           | > Bring in hundreds or thousands and the conspiracy will be
           | blown open accidentally
           | 
           | There's still a credibility issue. There are a lot of people
           | who claim to have worked for the government and have direct
           | knowledge of extraterrestrials. They mostly come across as
           | crazy, but this might also be what a conspiracy looks like.
           | Even when people expose it, they just look crazy and are
           | easily dismissed.
        
         | 2-718-281-828 wrote:
         | > being off by only 10 days instead of the expected 13
         | 
         | Doesn't that account for 3 mystery days per year? The Gregorian
         | calendar was introduced 1582. That's not even 500 years. Makes
         | 500y * 3d/y = 1500d is about 4.5 years.
         | 
         | How does this explain "about 300 missing years"?
        
           | simiones wrote:
           | The Julian calendar is wrong by ~1 day/128 years compared to
           | the true solar year, not 1 day per year. So 3 days => ~390
           | years.
           | 
           | And the computation goes like this:
           | 
           | 1. Julian calendar was created in ~45 CE.
           | 
           | 2. Gregorian calendar was created in ~1582 CE.
           | 
           | 3. To bring Gregorian time back in line with Julian time, you
           | would have needed to subtract (1582-45) / 128 ~= 13 days.
           | However, they only subtracted 10 days.
           | 
           | Wrong conclusion: they were actually in the year 1285, not
           | 1582.
           | 
           | Correct conclusion: they were not trying to bring Gregorian
           | time back in line with Julian time, but with a later time,
           | that of the Nicean Council in ~325 CE.
        
             | TechBro8615 wrote:
             | > Wrong conclusion: they were actually in the year 1285,
             | not 1582.
             | 
             | I read the whole article and I did not understand this part
             | describing the premise of the conspiracy.
             | 
             | Is the suggestion of the conspiracy that they essentially
             | made a transposition error between 1285 and 1582 while
             | fixing a relatively minor skew of a few days?
        
               | simiones wrote:
               | No, the conspiracy suggests that the leaders of the major
               | powers in Europe in the year 700-and-something conspired
               | to simply start calling it the year 1000 for the prestige
               | value, without recording this decision anywhere.
               | Essentially it's like we all agreed tomorrow to start
               | calling next year 2300 instead of 2023 (but theoretically
               | slightly more plausible in a time before centralized
               | calendars and computing).
               | 
               | Later historians simply took the official date for
               | granted - so the people in Pope Gregory's time believed
               | they were living in the year 1582, but, unbenknownst to
               | them, only 1285 years had passed since the year 1CE. The
               | real date was reflected in their astronomical
               | calculations, leading to the 10 day correction instead of
               | a 13-day one.
               | 
               | Of course, this is all absurd for all the reasons listed
               | in the article, and others.
        
               | mike_hearn wrote:
               | It's not that absurd to believe mistakes could have been
               | made there. The BC/AD system was invented centuries after
               | Christ and only started to become actually known around
               | the 730s:
               | 
               |  _The addition of the B.C. component happened two
               | centuries after Dionysius, when the Venerable Bede of
               | Northumbria published his "Ecclesiastical History of the
               | English People" in 731, wrote Antonia Gransden, who was a
               | reader in history at the University of Nottingham, in her
               | book "Historical Writing in England: c. 500 to c. 1307"
               | (Routledge, 1997). The work brought the A.D. system to
               | the attention of more people and expanded it to include
               | years before A.D. 1. Prior years were numbered to count
               | backward to indicate the number of years an event had
               | occurred "before Christ" or "B.C.
               | 
               | The B.C./A.D. system became more popular in the ninth
               | century after Holy Roman Emperor Charlemagne adopted the
               | system for dating acts of government throughout Europe."_
               | 
               | https://www.livescience.com/45510-anno-domini.html
               | 
               | Before the adoption of this system dating was rather
               | chaotic, with dates usually being recorded as "year X of
               | the reign of so-and-so". To line dates up and synchronize
               | them on a timeline was difficult, and synchronization of
               | European, Islamic, Greek and Roman history wasn't even
               | attempted until the 16th century (Scaliger's De
               | Emendatione Temporum).
        
               | mcguire wrote:
               | Mistakes, yes. 300 years? No. 300 years, including the
               | Carolingian Dynasty, the expansion of Islam (i.e. The
               | Battle of Tours), the Norse expansion (eventually leading
               | to the domination of Europe by a bunch of guys named
               | Norman)? Nope, no so much. And that's before you start
               | looking at Islamic, Indian, and Asian data.
               | 
               | And then there's radiometric dating and dendrochronology,
               | which are chaotic in their own right, but 300 years? Nah.
               | 
               | Weirdly, I was just reading Lynn White's _Medieval
               | technology and social change_ (1966), discussing the
               | introduction of the stirrup and the heavy plow (as
               | opposed to the scratch plow), both of which happened in
               | this period. There 's little in the way of good dates,
               | but some very big changes such as the move from
               | individual family subsistence farms to large, ridge-and-
               | furrow strips and Charles Martel's redistribution of
               | church lands to his followers, introducing true heavy
               | cavalry and the feudal system. (Note: may be a bit out of
               | date with modern research.)
        
               | drewzero1 wrote:
               | In some ways, it might be easier to pull off with
               | centralized digital calendars, as long as the powers-
               | that-be have access to commonly-used NTP servers. (Which
               | could certainly accelerate the Y2038 problem!)
        
               | TechBro8615 wrote:
               | Globally centralized timekeeping could certainly make for
               | an interesting premise to a dystopian sci-fi novel. Time
               | really does fly when the Fed controls the NTP root nodes.
        
         | Archelaos wrote:
         | This. But even what the article agrees with is wrong: "It only
         | works if you focus solely on western Europe, where the decline
         | of Rome left a nasty gap in the records." -- There is not
         | really a gap. We have fewer records, but still covering a lot.
         | They may not be autographs, but that is not very different from
         | the situation with antiquity. And when it comes to supporting
         | chronology, numismatics is probably the best evidence. It would
         | be impossible for a forger of history to bury hundreds of
         | thousands of matching coins all over Europe.
        
         | prox wrote:
         | I have always found the history around the Holy Roman Emperor
         | interesting, with prince electors :
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holy_Roman_Emperor as a basis of
         | continuing the Roman Empire in the west.
         | 
         | As it is I think we know little what happened to aristocratic
         | families at the end of the Empire as well.
        
           | tomatocracy wrote:
           | I rather like Gibbon's argument that the Ottoman empire was
           | effectively the continuation of the Byzantine/Eastern Roman
           | empire - by that line of thinking the ultimate surviving
           | descendant of the Roman Empire fought in the First World War.
        
             | simiones wrote:
             | It's also fun to note that one of the first leaders of the
             | Russian empire married one of the last Byzantine princesses
             | - thus taking the title of Caesar (Tsar).
        
               | neaden wrote:
               | Yeah Moscow sometimes referred to as Third Rome by people
               | who view it as the continuation. The Holy Roman Empire
               | would have of course differed as the Kaiser (also Caesar
               | derived) similarly counted himself as the continuation of
               | the Roman Empire.
        
               | vt85 wrote:
               | And since when Tsar is Byzantine title? :)))
        
               | int_19h wrote:
               | Tsar is a contraction of Caesar as pronounced in Slavic
               | languages. The corresponding Byzantine title was
               | Basileus, and while the word itself is unrelated, the
               | title correspondence was very well established at the
               | time (much like the use of "emperor" for Chinese and
               | Japanese rulers, even though the titles in those
               | languages are not etymologically related, either).
        
           | bhaak wrote:
           | We know so little that there is no verified unbroken lineage
           | between anybody from Antiquity to the Middle Ages.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Descent_from_antiquity
        
             | walnutclosefarm wrote:
             | And what we do know, doesn't necessarily mean what those
             | searching for descent from antiquity think it means. All
             | tracing of such descent assumes that pregnancies involved
             | known paternity, whereas we know that in general, there is
             | a lot of error in recorded paternities (one of the more
             | interesting side effects of DNA sequencing, both in
             | consumer offerings, and in medical and official use, is
             | demonstration that far more children are not the children
             | of their named or assumed father than was suspected). Add
             | to that, the fact that you could potentially have, say,
             | Charlemagne in your direct line of descent, and still have
             | none of his genetic material in your makeup. This is so
             | because at the remove of Charlemagne, you're 48, give or
             | take a few, generations, removed from the trillions of
             | leaves on your family tree, but you get roughly 1/2^-n of
             | your DNA from an nth generation progenitor and have only
             | 2^36th or so base pairs of DNA in your entire genome. So,
             | Charlemagne can be your umpty-great grandfather, and yet
             | you in be in no genetic sense, a descendent of Charlemagne.
             | 
             | In other words, past a dozen or so generations, any data
             | we've got on bloodlines has a lousy signal to noise ratio
             | for proving direct descent.
        
               | jlawson wrote:
               | Non-genetic descent is actually much stronger than that
               | even.
               | 
               | When genes are sexually recombined, they don't recombine
               | randomly per-base pair, they're cut and recombined in big
               | strips. The chromosomes actually only 'snip' in a small
               | number of places.
               | 
               | This means that after a relatively small number of
               | generations, it's quite easy to have no genes at all from
               | one of your ancestors.
               | 
               | I don't recall the exact numbers but it's something like
               | 8-12 generations where you start having serious numbers
               | of ancestors with no genetic connection.
        
               | walnutclosefarm wrote:
               | Of course. Absent recombination, you'd start having
               | ancestors dropping out after only 5 generations. With
               | recombination, it's a few more. I didn't make the
               | argument that way, because when I have in the past, I get
               | a bunch of "yeah, but ..." rebuttal. In addition to the
               | complicated nature of recombination, there is the
               | additional complication that when you get back 6 to 8 or
               | more generations, the same progenitors generally start
               | appearing in multiple branches of your family tree -
               | sometimes in many, many branches. But it is nevertheless
               | the most correct. We all probably have great, great,
               | great, great, great, great grandparents from whom we have
               | no genetic inheritance at all. Add a couple more greats,
               | and it's a near certainty.
        
               | OkayPhysicist wrote:
               | Matrilineal or patrilineal lines give you much stronger
               | signals than that, though, thanks to mitochondrial and
               | Y-chromosome DNA respectively.
        
               | tsimionescu wrote:
               | Sure, but unbroken patrilineal or matrilineal lines of
               | descent are rather improbable over such long times - any
               | family that had only sons or only daughters breaks the
               | line, and that's not particularly uncommon. Add some
               | infidelity into the mix and it becomes even harder to
               | believe.
        
               | walnutclosefarm wrote:
               | I don't see how. Sure, if you had mitochondrial DNA from
               | your long-dead male ancestors, you could suss out your
               | true patrilineal line of descent, but it's extremely
               | unlikely that such data is available. You might be able
               | to get it by inference by analyzing the fanned-out
               | descendents of a relatively recent putative paternal
               | ancestor - back 8 or maybe ten generations, but even
               | that's unusual. And, if you're targeting a specific
               | ancestor, it requires an unbroken line of paternal
               | descent - as soon as your path to, say, Henry VIII goes
               | through a female descendent, at any generation, you've
               | lost the Y chromosome relationship. Same argument applies
               | with the sex roles reversed for females and mitchondrial
               | inheritance. At ten generations back, you've got 1024
               | grandmother leaves on your tree. Only one of them is your
               | mother's mother's .. mother's mother. At 20 generations
               | (say, 500 years, so the actual age of Henry VIII), you've
               | got a million grandmother or grandfather leaves on your
               | tree, and only one is purely matrilineal, and one purely
               | patrilineal. (That doesn't mean, of course, that you've
               | got a million distinct grand^20 fathers - it'll be way
               | less than that, because the some men will appear on many
               | different leaves, and the same for mothers. But the odds
               | that the path you claim to Henry VII is purely maternal
               | or purely paternal are still very small.
        
             | ginko wrote:
             | Meanwhile there's people alive today who claim main line
             | descent from Confucius who lived in the 5th century BC.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kung_Tsui-chang
        
               | peter303 wrote:
               | Genealogists have worked out most American Presidents 800
               | years or so. A couple interesting facts include (1) about
               | everyone one of them is at least 10th cousin to every
               | other one and (2) a large fraction descend from King John
               | of England. Probability suggests that after a millennium
               | that that someone becomes a super-ancestor, i.e. everyone
               | is descended from them, or no one is descended from them.
               | Very little middle ground. (A lot of northwest European
               | Americans probably have the same statistics as
               | Presidents.)
        
               | bhaak wrote:
               | We lost a lot of historical records between late
               | antiquity and the early middle ages. Most devastating for
               | Italy was probably the Gothic War.
               | 
               | Then the records that were in Constantinople were also
               | lost, not only by the fall of Constantinople itself but
               | also by the sacking of it by Christian crusaders.
               | 
               | Lots of records that could have shown such a descent are
               | lost.
               | 
               | Now Confucius was an important historical figure.
               | 
               | It's not surprising that he is one of the few cases where
               | an uninterrupted descent could be true. If Jesus or
               | Caesar had a family line run into modern times or if the
               | Papacy was hereditary, we might have such a line for
               | Western civilization as well.
        
               | JamesSwift wrote:
               | China also has kept a fairly robust set of records
               | compared to the rest of the world.
        
               | stackbutterflow wrote:
               | Would be hard for Jesus, given he didn't exist.
        
               | tsimionescu wrote:
               | That is an extremely fringe belief, in disagreement with
               | most scholars of antiquity.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | But the gradient is positive.
        
               | bhaak wrote:
               | What's that supposed to mean?
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | In 1900, no historians thought Jesus was like Moses,
               | Abraham, and Adam, made up from whole cloth. In 2000,
               | some did. Today, more.
               | 
               | The scenario as I understand it is that Paul's writing
               | came first. But to get a congregation to pay attention
               | they found they had to invent a corporeal Jesus to have
               | said their things, then apostles to have heard them, then
               | a bio for where and when, and finally gospels to tell it
               | in.
               | 
               | For those who object that such a thing wasn't done,
               | consider Moses and, really, all of Genesis and Exodus.
               | Iliad. Thor'n'Loki. It was not just done, but positively
               | demanded.
        
               | option_key wrote:
               | True, but that's because history as a discipline has
               | incredibly low standard of evidence. They collectively
               | decided that since reliable evidence is often very
               | difficult to produce, they will settle for what they can
               | get. A lot of antique or even medieval historical figures
               | are known from a single sentence in some chronicle
               | written 100 years after their death.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Even the most ardent Christian biblical scholars admit
               | the overwhelming majority of writings claimed to be 1st
               | century are much later forgeries. They have picked out a
               | few scraps they have not been able to prove were forged,
               | and based everything on those.
               | 
               | But the most favored bit of positive evidence is a single
               | paragraph that everybody agrees was badly doctored up.
               | They have "reconstructed" what they think the original
               | must have actually said. But the text before and after it
               | would flow neatly one to the next without it.
               | 
               | Next best is a line in Paul where he mentions somebody is
               | Jesus's brother.
        
               | tsimionescu wrote:
               | That would make it unknowable whether he existed, it
               | would not mean we have reason to believe he didn't.
               | 
               | This is not like physics where it's natural to assume
               | something didn't exist if the proof for its existence is
               | not strong enough.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Only because a lot of people want to believe.
               | 
               | We are all confident Adam, Noah, and Moses were made up,
               | with none of the proof positive that you are demanding
               | for this one case.
        
               | scott_s wrote:
               | I don't think it is a fringe belief. I have not heard of
               | such a consensus among "most scholars of antiquity." What
               | are you basing that on? A discussion I heard in the past
               | few years which mentions that is an open question is
               | here: https://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/the-
               | evidence-f...
        
               | thaumasiotes wrote:
               | China also has a continuous literary tradition between
               | that time and now, so the claims are plausible.
               | 
               | I'm actually more impressed that the old Chinese imperial
               | families are still around:
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Zhao
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Zhu
               | 
               | In what I would think of as the "standard model" of
               | history, one of the highest priorities for a new king is
               | eliminating everyone who might theoretically be related
               | to the old king.
        
               | vkazanov wrote:
               | Yeah.. even the last Chinese emperor wasn't executed,
               | despite the endless civil war and his cooperation with
               | Japanese.
        
               | peter303 wrote:
               | Japanese emperors back to 600 BCE.
        
               | jl6 wrote:
               | What does "main line" mean in this context?
        
               | prox wrote:
               | I would assume father > son descent, so oldest son is
               | usually the main inheritor.
        
               | abirch wrote:
               | Depth First Search for heirs.
        
               | JasonFruit wrote:
               | That sounds like an elevator pitch.
        
             | Spooky23 wrote:
             | These were totally different systems between the Roman era
             | (or eras) and the catholic Western European system of
             | nobility.
             | 
             | Even at the peak of the empire, it wasn't like driving
             | around in a modern nation state, there were all sorts of
             | associated kingdoms and tribes within the borders you see
             | in history books. In many ways the empire was like a
             | franchise with local governors wielding varying power and
             | independence.
             | 
             | As the empire declined, association with that state became
             | less relevant, so they dropped the pageantry of being the
             | great grandson of Marcus Whomeveritus. As the petty kings
             | and nobility started consolidating and emerging as
             | "legitimate" in a system, the "mists of antiquity" served
             | to launder that your background descended from an usurper
             | governor, tax farmer, or barbarian warlord.
        
       | erdaniels wrote:
       | So kind of like going from version 4 to 6
        
       | bsedlm wrote:
       | > no conspiracy theory has yet emerged arguing that the Empire
       | never really fell at all, and that everywhere from Carlisle to
       | Cairo is still secretly being run by an emperor hidden somewhere
       | under Rome. Which is a pity, because that would be brilliant.
       | 
       | it's mere occulted knowledge. Philip K. Dick says so in his
       | exegesis. "the empire never ended"
       | 
       | additionally, the empire, which could also be regarded as an
       | ideology or even an instutional tradition of hiding knowledge (to
       | construct authority and wield it as power) has a deeply ingrained
       | habit of erasing and rewriting history
       | 
       | to the point that this author is doing the bidding of this
       | occulted (and possibly nonexistent) cult of occulting (i.e.
       | hiding and mystery making) ideological/institutional force; he's
       | rationalizing and backing the claim "conspiracies are silly
       | nonesense, mkay? nothing to see but fools and buffoons".
        
       | blowski wrote:
       | The Julian Calendar would _now_ be 13 days behind the Gregorian
       | calendar. But 400 years ago, it was only 10 days behind. If only
       | all conspiracy theories were so easy to refute.
        
       | leto_ii wrote:
       | TLDR: yes it did, there's no phantom time; check with the
       | Chinese, Persians, Byzantines etc.
        
       | aaron695 wrote:
        
       | RivieraKid wrote:
       | Am I the only one who thinks that the "ethics" part of philosophy
       | is kind of trivial? The only part of philosophy which took me a
       | long time to form a clear opinion on was the hard problem of
       | consciousness and related topics.
        
         | golergka wrote:
         | You're definitely not the only one, but most people who share
         | this opinion didn't study ethics well enough. Its a field full
         | of complicated contradictions.
        
         | acoard wrote:
         | As a philosophy major who was never particularly interested in
         | ethics, I certainly don't think it's trivial. If you trivial as
         | in "clearly obvious" then I certainly disagree. But let me try
         | and charitably interpret your position.
         | 
         | I do think that in practice the different ethical systems don't
         | produce wildly different outcomes, from utilitarianism to
         | deontology to even virtue ethics. Of course, in the realm of
         | thought experiments they can be widely different. But in the
         | real world, the hardest thing is to be moral (i.e. do the right
         | thing) rather than defining your ethics (having a clear code).
         | In practice, the "evil"/conflict/strive in the world I see is
         | due to selfishness or amorality, not disagreements between
         | utilitarians and kantians. Is this what you're getting at? That
         | the distinctions between the different ethical systems collapse
         | into similar practical situations? That being a "good person"
         | is more important than the particular ethical code you follow?
         | (That's my take, basically).
         | 
         | I'll also say that I found meta-ethics incredibly illuminating.
         | It essentially builds up a language to discuss different
         | ethical systems and makes conversations around them way easier.
         | 
         | Big up on consciousness and philosophy of mind though. I also
         | found philosophy of science fascinating. And shoutout to
         | Hobbes! He would have loved HN, he was such a contrarian.
        
           | RivieraKid wrote:
           | My main point is that ethics is subjective, there's no
           | correct answer to ethical problems, it boils down to how
           | people feel. See also my other comment.
           | 
           | I absolutely agree that in the real world it's mainly about
           | being a good person, not about being a particular type of a
           | good person.
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | You are in luck: there is no problem of consciousness.
        
         | charles_f wrote:
         | There is a lot to it in the grey area. Don't kill, don't steal,
         | don't cheat, don't eat baby seals, don't touch my grandma, that
         | is trivial. The complex bit is for everything that's less of a
         | drastic decision.
         | 
         | Is it ethical to let a coworker make a mistake you saw so they
         | can learn, at the cost of project progress, or is it ethical to
         | help them and make sure you deliver what was promised to your
         | stakeholders on time? What if you don't like the co-worker?
         | What if you dont like stakeholders?
         | 
         | Is it ethical to slack off at work if you need that for your
         | mental safety? Or is it theft?
         | 
         | And so on. Tons of little decisions that are not about life and
         | death, but still very much about ethics, and that are not
         | trivial at all.
        
           | RivieraKid wrote:
           | My view is that ethics is subjective, it boils down to how
           | people feel. They often have various ethical systems and
           | rules built on those feelings (or on axioms which feel
           | right).
        
             | mcguire wrote:
             | That is true of all of philosophy (he says, at the risk of
             | his Junior Philosopher's Secret Decoder Ring). The
             | interesting part is the systems you build (hopefully using
             | logic) around it.
        
       | stillsut wrote:
       | Could we find a tree we know was planted in say 300 AD, then
       | count the tree rings in its trunk? Or some kind of river that
       | floods yearly and leaves a discrete layer of sediment?
        
         | mcguire wrote:
         | That's dendrochronology, and it is used to date wooden objects.
         | The problems are that you only get an age (the tree was N years
         | old at the time this object was created), and that you only get
         | a slice of the tree (you can only see the subset of rings that
         | are visible in the wooden beam supporting the house).
         | 
         | You can compare ring widths, assuming you have wood from the
         | same climatic area, and use that as a standard candle to date
         | objects reasonably well.
        
       | drewcoo wrote:
       | > This lack of records led some later scholars to give the years
       | after the Roman collapse the now deeply unfashionable label 'the
       | Dark Ages', to reflect the fact they literally couldn't see what
       | was going on.
       | 
       | That is entirely crap. They're called the dark ages because some
       | humanists, full of themselves, started calling themselves the
       | enlightenment and what came directly before their era "dark."
       | Kids those days, am I right?
       | 
       | https://www.medievalists.net/2014/02/why-the-middle-ages-are...
        
         | Veen wrote:
         | The dark ages were supposed dark in contrast to the earlier
         | classical period, not the post-renaissance period. The
         | enlightenment happened several centuries after the term was
         | first used, and has nothing to do with medieval humanists.
        
         | jkingsbery wrote:
         | As the link you provided indicates, it's a bit more complicated
         | than that. But generally, yes, people would benefit from
         | understanding more about Medieval History, and how our
         | conceptions about it are shaped by Renaissance, Protestant and
         | Enlightenment writers all used the Medieval period as a
         | punching bag.
        
         | nl wrote:
         | >> This lack of records led some later scholars to give the
         | years after the Roman collapse the now deeply unfashionable
         | label 'the Dark Ages',
         | 
         | > That is entirely crap.
         | 
         | It's absolutely not crap.
         | 
         | Wikipedia says (referring the quote used in your link):
         | 
         |  _The concept of a "Dark Age" originated in the 1330s with the
         | Italian scholar Petrarch, who regarded the post-Roman centuries
         | as "dark" compared to the "light" of classical antiquity. The
         | term employs traditional light-versus-darkness imagery to
         | contrast the era's "darkness" (lack of records) with earlier
         | and later periods of "light" (abundance of records)._
         | 
         | I'd emphasize the "lack of records" here. It's absolutely true
         | to say that _some_ scholars use that as a reason to label it
         | the dark ages.
         | 
         | > They're called the dark ages because some humanists, full of
         | themselves, started calling themselves the enlightenment
         | 
         | I'd note that Petrarch (quoted in the link you posted!) was
         | talking about the times he lived in himself as dark, and was
         | far from claiming to be any sort of enlightenment.
        
           | origin_path wrote:
           | Petrarch pretty clearly was not using the word "dark" to mean
           | lack of information if he considered the year in which he
           | lived to also be "dark". Did he explicitly state he was
           | talking about abundance of historical records anywhere, or is
           | that something that was projected onto his writings later?
           | 
           | Renaissance humanists were famous for considering the Roman
           | Empire to be the peak of sophistication and all things cool.
           | They were also famous for going to great lengths to recover
           | supposedly lost works of Roman literature, which were often
           | found in obscure places. It seems quite unlikely those people
           | would have been using the word "light" to mean abundance of
           | literature given the difficulty they had in obtaining said
           | literature.
        
           | stackbutterflow wrote:
           | The "Dark Ages" is a thing in English mostly. In other
           | languages and countries there's no such thing. It's simply
           | the middle age or early middle age. I've noticed it affects
           | how English speakers see this period of history.
        
         | blowski wrote:
         | It depends on who you think coined the term "dark ages".
         | 
         | Protestants did indeed write of a dark age of ignorance, but
         | that comment came 200 years after the Catholic Baronius wrote
         | of a "lack of writers" producing a dark age.
        
       | mynameismonkey wrote:
       | >no conspiracy theory has yet emerged arguing that the Empire
       | never really fell at all, and that everywhere from Carlisle to
       | Cairo is still secretly being run by an emperor hidden somewhere
       | under Rome. Which is a pity, because that would be brilliant.
       | 
       | The Empire Never Ended:
       | 
       | https://1library.net/article/empire-ended-philosophy-science...
        
       | age_bronze wrote:
       | Here's a real historical inconsistency:
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missing_years_%28Jewish_calend...
       | 
       | I dislike the framing of some inconsistencies as "conspiracy
       | theory". Mistakes can and will happen, it's an argument of
       | emotion to frame an inconsistency as a "conspiracy theory". Just
       | because one possible explanation is that people colluded
       | intentionally and conspiratorially doesn't rule out all the other
       | more plausible explanations that something really is wrong.
       | 
       | It's also bad epistemology. Literally everything can be explained
       | as a conspiracy, so the fact the the only explanation you can
       | think of to an inconsistency is "people colluded" reflect more on
       | you than on the problem. Historical records can and will be
       | inaccurate.
       | 
       | Some people's epistemological metric goes haywire from those two
       | words. People write inaccurate stuff all the time. It's literally
       | just papers. Other civilizations are other clocks and there are
       | very few historical evidence to synchronize those clocks,
       | especially when the travel time of news and people in those times
       | was extremely slow. Lack of international news also means loss of
       | synchronization.
       | 
       | If the invocation of the words "conspiracy theory" in any way
       | repels you from exploring inconsistencies with an open mind, the
       | problem is with your emotional reasoning. If you believe this
       | guy, something like the missing years could never have happened.
       | It clearly happened, and I am sure there was no conspiracy behind
       | it. Two words, "conspiracy theory", entirely shifted your
       | internal model of the world emotionally, when epistemologically,
       | it shouldn't change your opinion into either direction. The
       | existence of an extremely unlikely explanation is completely
       | equivalent to just no explanation. "Conspiracy theory" is purely
       | an appeal to emotion. Someone claimed A, and a guy told you
       | Conspiracy=>A therefore ~A. Only an emotional human would process
       | this useless information in any way.
        
       | NiceWayToDoIT wrote:
       | We live in very advance simulation that is optimizing in such
       | way, so that when ever we find out it is overlord hoax - it
       | increase historical details :D
        
         | jacquesm wrote:
         | Douglas Adams beat you to that one by a couple of decades.
         | 
         | "There is a theory which states that if ever anyone discovers
         | exactly what the Universe is for and why it is here, it will
         | instantly disappear and be replaced by something even more
         | bizarre and inexplicable. There is another theory which states
         | that this has already happened."
        
       | FeepingCreature wrote:
       | Reminds me of Scott's The Pyramid and the Garden
       | https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/11/05/the-pyramid-and-the-ga... ,
       | about how many bits of freedom you need to get a conspiracy
       | theory like the Pyramid of Giza encoding the speed of light.
        
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