[HN Gopher] El Salvador Made Bitcoin a National Currency. The Be...
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       El Salvador Made Bitcoin a National Currency. The Bet Isn't Paying
       Off
        
       Author : jaredwiener
       Score  : 24 points
       Date   : 2022-07-05 19:30 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nytimes.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nytimes.com)
        
       | upsidesinclude wrote:
       | There is no loss on an asset until it is sold.
       | 
       | They have not realized a loss other than for accounting, which
       | may benefit their debt positions.
       | 
       | Bitcoin is responding exactly like it has in the past, it also
       | represents a better ~one year return than most investments. Now
       | is a time to buy additional amounts as $13k-20k is the
       | anticipated low range during the next 'slump' year
        
         | jasonlaramburu wrote:
         | >$13k-20k is the anticipated low range during the next 'slump'
         | year
         | 
         | What is the basis for this assessment? At least with a stock
         | you can point to the underlying performance of the company.
         | What factors affect BTC price other than sentiment?
        
         | Ferrotin wrote:
         | It's a liquid asset, so that's a false distinction.
        
       | boc wrote:
       | How do we actually know that El Salvador is buying BTC when they
       | say they are? Is there a government wallet that we can see to
       | confirm the presence of the national BTC reserve? I have a
       | suspicion that the announced purchases aren't aligned with actual
       | purchases, especially since we've seen that relatively small
       | volumes of buying/selling will move the BTC market by thousands
       | of dollars.
        
         | impulser_ wrote:
         | They don't buy on the open market like a normal person would.
         | They buy from Coinbase or other large exchanges off market.
         | Much like how large stock deals are done.
        
           | duskwuff wrote:
           | > They don't buy on the open market like a normal person
           | would. They buy from Coinbase or other large exchanges off
           | market.
           | 
           | If they were being responsible about it (or, at least, as
           | responsible as any government speculating in cryptocurrency
           | could be), they would.
           | 
           | But, according to Bukele himself [1], these purchases are
           | made from an app on Bukele's personal mobile phone. I
           | wouldn't be surprised at all if they were buying through an
           | over-the-counter exchange.
           | 
           | [1]:
           | https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1467333081505976323
        
             | mike00632 wrote:
             | The government of a sovereign nation is expending its
             | treasury all through one person's cell phone?! Wild times
             | we live in.
        
       | mikhael28 wrote:
       | Price is going to go down some more too. As the economy slowly
       | but surely enters recession, and low net worth HOLDers sell their
       | BTC to pay rent, the price will continue to go down. This system
       | only works if people pump money into the system, not out of it.
        
         | sec400 wrote:
         | Those sure are a lot of predictions stated as fact.
        
           | NicoJuicy wrote:
           | It's already a ~ bank run. Not sure what could reverse that
           | trend.
           | 
           | Some discussion on eg.
           | https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5403254.0
        
           | panaffa wrote:
           | Agreed
        
           | mikhael28 wrote:
           | It's not an unreasonable scenario. But yes, some 50/50 coin
           | flip assumptions have been made.
        
           | mirntyfirty wrote:
           | I see very little incentives for the current "coin" holders
           | and future potential "coin" holders to maintain a seemingly
           | high "asset" price on btc.
           | 
           | I'm open to a convincing argument otherwise but most of what
           | I've observed is hand wavy and requires a religious leap of
           | faith and conversion.
        
       | boxmonster wrote:
       | I was told there would be volcano powered Bitcoin mines
        
       | BitwiseFool wrote:
       | >"So far, Mr. Bukele's trades have cost the country an estimated
       | $63 million in lost value, according to estimates last week by
       | the magazine Disruptive, published by Francisco Gavidia
       | University in San Salvador."
       | 
       | A significant sum for any individual, but how impactful actually
       | is this for a nation state like El Salvador? Not to blindly
       | defend Bitcoin, but it seems like a tropical storm would inflict
       | just as much, if not more, financial loss than this decision.
       | And, it remains to be seen if this position will pay off in the
       | long run.
        
         | panaffa wrote:
         | Not a big deal at all. These are long term reserve assets. They
         | will not be sold perhaps forever.
        
         | azekai wrote:
         | "Not to blindly defend Bitcoin, but it seems like a tropical
         | storm would inflict just as much, if not more, financial loss
         | than this decision."
         | 
         | I know you are just theorizing here, but c'mon. By embracing
         | Bitcoin they did as much damage to their nation as if a
         | _hurricane_ had hit? That seems like an incredibly poor choice
         | for the people who are ostensibly in charge of keeping their
         | nation safe and stable.
        
           | BitwiseFool wrote:
           | I was trying to put the loss in perspective, namely that this
           | loss, while bad, is still an amount that El Salvador will be
           | able to reasonably recover from. Not that I sensed there was
           | doom and gloom about the situation, but this isn't the kind
           | of large loss that will financially bog down El Salvador for
           | the next decade or more.
        
             | upsidesinclude wrote:
             | There is no loss on an asset until it is sold.
             | 
             | They have not realized a loss other than for accounting,
             | which may benefit their debt positions.
             | 
             | Bitcoin is responding exactly like it has in the past, it
             | also represents a better ~one year return than most
             | investments. Now is a time to buy additional amounts as
             | $13k-20k is the anticipated low range during the next
             | 'slump' year
        
             | xur17 wrote:
             | I wonder how much of this was a marketing play by El
             | Salvador. As a result of making Bitcoin a National
             | Currency, they've had their name in the news quite a few
             | times, they've had more tourists than normal
             | (cryptocurrency enthusiasts visiting, etc), and they've
             | likely had increased investment in their country.
        
           | jiriknesl wrote:
           | In comparison with the hurricane, Bitcoin is going to fix
           | itself (or at least it always did). And projected -$63M
           | damage can be +$200M very easily. I think that the linked
           | article will not age well. Practicly no article of this kind
           | since the Bitcoin creation did.
        
             | mike00632 wrote:
             | "very easily"
        
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       (page generated 2022-07-05 23:02 UTC)