[HN Gopher] MIT researchers propose Brazil-sized fleet of "space...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       MIT researchers propose Brazil-sized fleet of "space bubbles" to
       cool the Earth
        
       Author : excalibur
       Score  : 155 points
       Date   : 2022-06-29 16:36 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.freethink.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.freethink.com)
        
       | charliea0 wrote:
       | Seems like the key consideration is the mass of the bubbles. If
       | they are light enough then this could be feasible.
        
         | charliea0 wrote:
         | By comparison, direct air capture of CO2 costs something like
         | $600/ton. At 40 billion tons of global CO2 emitted per year it
         | could cost 24 trillion per year to remove current emissions.
         | 
         | That said, I would bet there's better economies of scale /
         | ability to innovate lower cost zero-carbon energy sources with
         | direct air capture rather than a giant space project.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | And, removing carbon delays global catastrophe, while space
           | bubbles bring it sooner.
        
         | charliea0 wrote:
         | My napkin math is that a bubble with a shadow the size of
         | Brazil and made out of graphene weighing 0.77 mg per square
         | meter would weigh about 25 million kg. Using multiple smaller
         | bubbles could reduce this by at most a factor of four.
         | 
         | At a cost of $1,000-$10,000 per kg it seems possible to get
         | this to space with a total cost on the order of hundreds of
         | billions of dollars.
         | 
         | You could do a estimate of the graphene itself but I think the
         | cost would be similar.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | Disaster is disaster, however much money you save.
           | 
           | Civilization collapse is cheapest of all, but has perhaps
           | undesired side effects.
           | 
           | Every bit of money and attention spent on this or any other
           | "shade the earth" scheme just brings collapse nearer.
        
       | eloff wrote:
       | This is a solution for climate change that's been tossed around
       | for a while in various forms.
       | 
       | I think it may just be one of the most viable thanks to SpaceX
       | bringing down the cost of space launch. With starship this might
       | just be one of the cheapest solutions. Certainty cheaper than
       | building seawalls around all our coastal cities - something that
       | no reduction in emissions will save us from now.
       | 
       | To be clear, we have to reduce emissions, but it's obvious now to
       | me that it will be too little, too late. We'll need something
       | more radical as well. Currently emissions are still increasing
       | and the rate of emissions is even accelerating still. We're
       | pretty fucked overa long time span.
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | Each dollar spent on window dressing is a dollar that cannot be
         | spent on the actual problem.
         | 
         | But disaster comes on just as fast, however much you make it
         | look like it is not.
         | 
         | Blocking sunlight, by whatever means, is a disastrously bad
         | idea.
        
       | cletus wrote:
       | Eventually we're going to have to reduce the sunlight hitting the
       | Earth because the Sun is getting ~6% hotter every billion years
       | [1]. The Earth is set to become uninhabitable in ~1.6 billion
       | years [2] because of it.
       | 
       | Here's what I think will actually make sense: put space orbitals
       | and power collectors at the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point (roughly
       | 1.5M km from Earth). This is readily accessible in terms of
       | planetary distances, will involve minimal communication delay
       | with Earth and if you build enough of them you can reduce the
       | solar output hitting the Earth however much you want with little
       | to no visible impact from Earth.
       | 
       | [1]: https://usm.maine.edu/planet/sun-getting-hotter-if-so-why-
       | wi...
       | 
       | [2]: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/weve-
       | got-15-billio...
        
         | philipswood wrote:
         | Why does everyone want these at L1?
         | 
         | The first time I saw the plans for the Starlink fleet I started
         | wondering if you could use a fleet of satellites to manage
         | incoming solar radiation:
         | 
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18474244
         | 
         | Maybe more an idea for a science fiction novel than a serious
         | plan, but I like the sound of it.
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | Great, do that a million years from now, instead of distracting
         | us from work to prevent imminent global catastrophe.
        
       | artingent wrote:
       | Given that we've already crossed the point-of-no-return, I think
       | some form of geo-engineering is the only way to prevent rising
       | sea-levels, inhabitable conditions and human extinction. But I
       | hope there's a way to do some sort of controlled experimentation
       | first before committing to a "solution" and statements like this
       | aren't very comforting: "Once those aerosols were released,
       | though, we wouldn't have a straightforward way to recapture them
       | if the plan didn't work or had unforeseen negative consequences."
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | nothrowaways wrote:
       | Cool. A big umbrella for earth !
        
       | myshpa wrote:
       | Maybe we should stop searching for solutions in outer space and
       | look for solutions already existing and proven. Plants "geo-
       | engineered" the planet once and could do it again.
       | 
       | Animal husbandry is one of the main culprits of global warming,
       | pandemics, deforestation, ocean pollution, world hunger,
       | destruction of ecosystems, continuous extinctions, and much more.
       | That's the fact.
       | 
       | With stopping "the burning machine" and also "the killing
       | machine", we could reforest most of our agriculture lands (more
       | than double our forested lands) and solve all this problems in
       | one go.
       | 
       | It's THE HACK we need.
       | 
       | https://climatehealers.org/the-science/animal-agriculture-po...
       | 
       | tldr: https://climatehealers.org/wp-
       | content/uploads/2021/09/Climat...
       | 
       | P.S. If you live in Europe and would like to support two days old
       | initiative "End the Slaughter Age" to transfer animal ag.
       | subsidies to alt-protein (plant-based & cultivated meat/dairy),
       | read more & sign at
       | https://eci.ec.europa.eu/025/public/#/screen/home and
       | https://www.endtheslaughterage.eu/
        
       | undert0wn wrote:
       | Why not add solar cells and capture energy to power satellites or
       | other space vehicles?
        
       | adamredwoods wrote:
       | Curious, I couldn't find any information on how to make bubbles
       | in space. I assume it will need compressed gas from Earth? Did
       | they determine how much gas? The actual MIT website is fancy, but
       | lacks specifics.
        
         | undersuit wrote:
         | A gas will fill the container it is in. The pressure of these
         | bubbles would be very low, maybe just enough to counter the
         | gravity of the balloon.
        
         | intrasight wrote:
         | I had pitched a similar idea here on HN a few years ago, and
         | have recently done some more design. Rather than "bubbles", I
         | would have a robot go capture metallic asteroids, and use them
         | as the raw material to build a sun screen. I personally cannot
         | think of any viable alternative to building some kind of sun
         | screen at L1.
         | 
         | My new design envisions a robot spider which basically weaves a
         | web.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | A disastrously bad idea by any other means remains a
           | disastrously bad idea.
        
             | intrasight wrote:
             | Alternative?
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Build out renewables. Displace fossil fuel burning.
               | Unblock capital for building out renewables. Stop
               | subsidizing fossil fuel extraction. Tax fossil fuel
               | extraction _and_ burning, and use the money to subsidize
               | build-out. Outlaw fossil fuel burning where taxes would
               | not suffice.
        
       | stuaxo wrote:
       | Amazing how what we will consider so we don't give up fossil
       | fuels.
        
         | cbozeman wrote:
         | Fossil fuels aren't going to be given up even remotely soon.
         | They'll still be in use a century from now... because the
         | alternative is pre-civilization, and nobody's going to go for
         | that. Nobody. Billionaires are definitely not giving up their
         | private jets, their 300 foot yachts filled with Russian whores,
         | and their 15,000 square foot mansions that show just how grand
         | and powerful they are.
         | 
         |  _Normal_ people aren 't giving up their 70 degree indoor air
         | conditioning in the middle of Florida, Texas, or California
         | summers of 100+ degrees, either. You know what else us normal
         | people aren't going to give up? Going to the store and getting
         | a ribeye steak.
         | 
         | Technology is going to have to come up with solutions that we
         | can live with, and we're going to have to accept some of the
         | negatives of climate change. Period, end of story. Rich people
         | aren't going to voluntarily suffer. And most of the Western
         | world is "rich".
        
         | spockz wrote:
         | At this point it isn't about giving up fossil fuels anymore and
         | more about acting to revert the damage already done. We appear
         | to already be to late to prevent the 1.5degree global warming
         | and even 2.5 which could cause a runaway effect. The only
         | viable option is to let less energy hit the earth.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | Making "less energy hit the earth" brings on disaster just
           | that much more quickly.
        
         | baggy_trough wrote:
         | That is because giving up fossil fuels is very difficult.
        
           | dredmorbius wrote:
           | "How did you give up fossil fuels?"
           | 
           | "Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly."
        
             | baggy_trough wrote:
             | A fossil fuels bankruptcy is not in the cards.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Collapse of civilization will sharply reduce CO2 output,
               | with some side effects.
        
               | baggy_trough wrote:
               | Yes it would, but that's not in the cards either.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | It is, if not very deliberately prevented. Distraction
               | from what must be done only brings disaster nearer.
        
               | baggy_trough wrote:
               | I believe that is very unlikely indeed.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Disaster is always the easiest course. If you don't
               | believe it, just shut your eyes driving on the freeway.
               | Please.
        
               | baggy_trough wrote:
               | I'd love to know the mechanism because I just don't see
               | that. And leave out the death wishes if you are capable.
        
       | parkingrift wrote:
       | Planet scale geoengineering that may or may not be possible with
       | existing or near technology.
       | 
       | Or
       | 
       | Just blast sulfur, calcium carbonate, or some other particles
       | into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight. Elon Musk could do
       | this by himself. Single digit billions with technology we've
       | perfected decades ago.
       | 
       | Waiting patiently for a a majority of people to realize it's the
       | only realistic path to buy us enough time to transition to
       | renewables.
        
         | status200 wrote:
         | The article mentions the fatal flaw with the particle
         | technique, but may I request your source that leads you to
         | believe that we have "perfected" deploying particles in our
         | atmosphere on a global scale?
         | 
         | Also, please don't give Elon any ideas, he already has enough
         | futile showboats.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | It utterly fails to mention the fatal flaw of both schemes.
           | Neither addresses the problem, which then carries on until
           | the ocean ecosystem, thence civilization, collapses.
        
         | oifjsidjf wrote:
         | It's scary how little you think about the unintended
         | consequences of messing with a complex system like that.
         | 
         | This truly is horrible reductionism ala "it will be fine,
         | NOTHING will go wrong, TRUST me".
        
         | ElijahLynn wrote:
         | The article address that a bit, bubbles are safer and
         | reversible if needed. The particle injection is not reversible.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | Bubbles are not safe. Reversing it partway is far worse than
           | not starting. Even starting would be disastrous, to the exact
           | extent it distracted from doing something that works.
           | 
           | We know what works: cut CO2 emission. Nothing else does.
        
         | jimmygrapes wrote:
         | Blocking or reflecting sunlight does not seem like a great path
         | forward for wind or solar energy, considering that both require
         | that sunlight that's being blocked. Hydroelectric, nuclear,
         | geothermal, maybe. Until we get a nice little ice age and the
         | water freezes too much. Maybe a better solution here would be
         | to just accept that civilization as we know it needs to adapt
         | rather than forcing the entire planetary ecosphere to adapt
         | around us.
        
       | PeterStuer wrote:
       | I always said climate change would not do us in as the 'Geo-
       | engineering' zealots would beat it to the punch for the price of
       | a few publications and a fistful of VC spin-out capital.
        
       | GrumpyNl wrote:
       | What could possibly go wrong?
        
         | ElijahLynn wrote:
         | The article suggests that the bubbles are reversible if
         | something does go wrong, and one of the safer options out there
         | for reducing the amount of energy that is being captured by the
         | atmosphere. It seems pretty hopeful to me, which is what we
         | need right now. The climate trauma is intense these days. This
         | is hope.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | Reversing it at that point would make things radically worse.
        
         | btbuildem wrote:
         | Human civilization could collapse to the point where we lose
         | space exploration, then we're stuck with some space bubbles
         | limiting how much sunlight the planet gets. As effects of
         | climate change wear off, we are slowly plunged into an eternal,
         | global ice age. All life on earth is exterminated, save for
         | some most resilient microorganisms.
        
           | marshray wrote:
           | Make them so that they automatically pop after a time unless
           | they regularly receive a command from earth.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | On the plus side, even attempting it guarantees civilization
           | collapse. So there's that.
        
           | NortySpock wrote:
           | The proposed location for this space bubble system, Earth-Sun
           | Lagrange Point 1, is gravitationally unstable.
           | 
           | Any device located there must actively maintain its location
           | , using calculated thruster firings, generally on the order
           | of months, or it will drift out of position in less than a
           | year.
           | 
           | So we're safe from that scenario. If the satellite loses
           | power, it will just drift out of our line of site of the sun.
           | No intervention required.
           | 
           | Other active spacecraft located at L1: NOAA's DSCOVR climate
           | observatory, and NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer
           | 
           | Edited to add a visualization of the ACE spacecraft L1 orbit:
           | https://izw1.caltech.edu/ACE/ASC/DATA/browse-
           | html/gse_color....
        
       | mrfusion wrote:
       | We should consider using this on Venus or mercury.
        
         | hotpotamus wrote:
         | It's been considered
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtTLj0E9ODc
        
       | malikNF wrote:
       | I think the only reason this idea is getting posted all over the
       | internet is because someone at MIT decided to propose this. Whole
       | thing sounds like someone trying to fix a badly written, buggy,
       | slow program by adding more ram.
       | 
       | We need to fix the root of the problem, we need to find
       | sustainable alternatives to energy production, protect natural
       | ecosystems, find sustainable ways to make use of resources, not
       | put some god damn sunroof over our heads and get an extension on
       | dealing with this problem.
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | Yes: creating shade instead of removing carbon means the ocean
         | ecosystem collapses, and access to protein for a billion+
         | people vanishes. Among other things.
         | 
         | We cannot "do both" because money is fungible. Spending on a
         | space boondoggle means not spending those dollars on PV and
         | wind generating capacity that displaces fossil combustion.
        
         | avgcorrection wrote:
         | We need both since climate change has already advanced too much
         | for comfort.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | lesstyzing wrote:
         | Why can't we do both? We clearly need more time so why not try
         | to get it if we can while still also trying to deal with the
         | root causes?
        
       | zwilliamson wrote:
       | Termination Shock by Neal Stephenson covers this topic well via
       | some insightful sci-fi story telling. I think his concept of a
       | sulfur cannon(s) is more realistic and likely to be implemented
       | in near future.
        
         | jpindar wrote:
         | It's also a fail-safe solution since we could stop sending up
         | more sulfur as soon as any unintended consequences were
         | noticed.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | It would bring global climate catastrophe that much closer.
           | 
           | And, the moment you stop, things get much worse much faster.
        
       | robbomacrae wrote:
       | I don't see anywhere in the article what they would do about
       | micrometeoroids?
       | 
       | At what rate would they expect bubbles to get punctured? Would
       | those punctures result in movements as the trapped gas escapes?
       | 
       | The JSTW at L2 has already been hit by 4 as of June 11th [0]. Are
       | we expecting fewer at L1?
       | 
       | [0]:
       | https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2022/06/11/th...
        
       | brokencode wrote:
       | What happens if you set this up and then something (like a comet
       | or asteroid) suddenly knocks those bubbles out of L1?
       | 
       | I assume that Earth would heat up more rapidly than ever in human
       | history. This would be especially bad if we keep on emitting vast
       | quantities of greenhouse gasses in the meantime.
       | 
       | Seems like a misguided idea to me, and one which wouldn't solve
       | the root cause of our climate problems.
        
         | troutwine wrote:
         | In a crisis the name of the game is triage: solve enough
         | incidental problems to buy yourself time to deal with
         | systematic issues. This proposal, ignoring whether it's
         | suitable or not, appears to be squarely in triage territory.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | No, it is strictly disastrous. There is no possible desirable
           | outcome.
           | 
           | Unless you really like the idea of ocean ecosystem collapse.
        
             | troutwine wrote:
             | I think you might be responding to something I didn't
             | write. I was trying to draw attention to the distinction
             | between triage and the projects that go into triage versus
             | work that addresses issues systematically. The GP's comment
             | correctly noted that the idea under discussion doesn't
             | necessarily address the systematic problem at hand, which
             | is true, but that doesn't mean that triage is not valuable.
             | I also specifically said that the proposed bubbles in space
             | idea may or may not be viable; it's irrelevant to the point
             | I was making.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | A "triage" response that makes the situation strictly
               | worse is no triage at all. It is just more harm piled on
               | top.
        
               | troutwine wrote:
               | Right, well, like I said the merits of this particular
               | idea are outside the scope of what I was trying to get
               | at.
        
       | civilized wrote:
       | I understand people's concerns about this, but I think we need to
       | get real here.
       | 
       | This is what the world's yearly CO2 emissions look like:
       | https://www.statista.com/statistics/276629/global-co2-emissi...
       | 
       | For us to not fry the planet, this graph needs to start going
       | down. _Fast._ And it needs to go into _negative_ territory.
       | 
       | Now look at what's happening in the world today. Russia invades
       | Ukraine. Gas and oil supplies get disrupted. Now inflation is
       | running rampant, the people of the developed world are angry, and
       | their leaders are desperately looking for fossil fuels to keep
       | their economies moving. They're decommissioning nuclear plants
       | and bringing _coal_ plants back online. Biden wants to kill the
       | gas tax to keep from getting swamped in November. Meanwhile,
       | China and India are being flooded with cheap Russian oil.
       | 
       | Does this sound like a world that is moving in the right
       | direction to imminently push that emissions curve way down?
       | 
       | Pie-in-the-sky moralizing about what humanity _should_ do does
       | not keep the planet from frying. Let 's consider other options
       | and accept some risk in exchange for the opportunity to avoid a
       | looming, inevitable catastrophe.
        
         | sjtindell wrote:
         | There is no centralized way to drive that change on the needed
         | scale. Most humans don't even view what we're doing in
         | civilization as shared project, let alone agree that this is
         | required to protect it. I think they fundamentally lack the
         | abstract thinking required. They won't change until they feel
         | the pain themselves. A poor fit for an abstract, not quite
         | "here yet" problem. In the United States we can't even get them
         | to agree it's a problem at all. But I think once we are
         | collectively feeling the pain, solutions will be swift and
         | surprising.
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | Your "other option" means certain disaster, sooner.
         | 
         | We already know what to do: build out renewables. Tax and
         | otherwise cut burning fossil fuels. Renewables are already
         | radically cheaper than any energy source ever devised, so the
         | faster they are built out, the cheaper it gets.
         | 
         | Anything else is a dangerous distraction. Any big enough
         | distraction is disastrous.
        
           | civilized wrote:
           | > Your "other option" means certain disaster, sooner.
           | 
           | I see no evidence or reason to believe this at all, let alone
           | with such extreme certitude. Shouldn't we try harder to have
           | a realistic scientific assessment?
           | 
           | > We already know what to do
           | 
           | But it's not happening and it isn't going to happen. That
           | means your plan doesn't work. That means that, however well-
           | intentioned you are, your plan is do nothing and fry the
           | planet.
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | It _is_ happening, just not fast enough. Renewables are
             | already cheaper than anything else. Building out more saves
             | money. Only social inertia slows it. Distraction adds to
             | inertia.
             | 
             | Doing things to increase inertia makes things worse.
             | Distracting people with pies in skies makes things worse.
             | 
             | The planet fries, regardless, if CO2 is not brought down.
             | Fooling around with anything that does not brings
             | catastrophe nearer.
        
               | civilized wrote:
               | > Only social inertia slows it. Distraction adds to
               | inertia.
               | 
               | I don't buy the armchair social psychology here. People
               | think they are much, much better at predicting how the
               | population will react to things than they actually are.
               | This led to a lot of terrible decisions during the
               | pandemic, like telling people masks don't work on the
               | baseless folk theory that wearing masks would cause
               | people to take more risks. That theory, by the way, was
               | very similar to the one you're advancing with such
               | certitude.
               | 
               | We are moving too slowly to avert potentially
               | catastrophic climate change. The armchair theory that,
               | somehow, not buying more time with geoengineering will
               | somehow... I don't know, somehow cause people to be more
               | focused and move faster?... is barely believable even as
               | a folk theory, but on top of that, is very clearly not
               | coming to pass. Look around at what's happening in the
               | world.
               | 
               | We need to get real.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Getting real means displacing CO2 production.
               | 
               | Anything that fails to displace CO2 production is, at
               | best, wankage. Anything that steals capital from
               | displacing CO2 production is much worse.
        
               | civilized wrote:
               | You're just layering folk theory upon folk theory with
               | baseless, utter confidence. This is not the sort of
               | problem we can just bluff our way through with gut
               | feelings. We need to consider the options in a
               | comprehensive, systematic, thoughtful, scientific
               | fashion.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | A comprehensive, systematic, thoughtful, scientific
               | fashion that _displaces CO2-emitting processes_.
               | 
               | Fail to displace CO2 emission, and it is all just so much
               | hot air.
        
         | cmarschner wrote:
         | Guess what happens if they decide to build that fleet of space
         | bubbles: Hooray we can just continue what we were doing. Let's
         | burn more oil! Let's build bigger cars! Party!
        
           | theptip wrote:
           | I always find this viewpoint perplexing. Isn't continuing to
           | do the things we want to do a good thing?
           | 
           | These things are not bad in and of themselves, they are bad
           | because of their externalities.
           | 
           | If we can find a way to offset the negative effects of
           | burning coal, that's great; it means poor countries can spend
           | more GDP on healthcare and education, and less on upgrading
           | to clean power.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | Yes. Even imagining it would work brings disaster closer.
        
           | lukeplato wrote:
           | Or we develop a way to regulate incoming sunlight while
           | continuing the (slow) migration off fossil fuels and
           | developing better carbon capture tech
        
           | dorgo wrote:
           | Global warming is the primary, if not the only, reason for an
           | expensive transition to renewables. If global warming is
           | stopped/reversed then there is no reason to not to burn more
           | oil, is there? I don't like it, but I won't argue against
           | fossil fuels with abstract moral reasons.
        
           | civilized wrote:
           | Cynicism feels wise but sometimes it isn't.
        
       | cebu wrote:
       | How comparable was getting an mRNA vaccine to market in a year to
       | these type of geoengineering moonshots?
        
       | LinuxBender wrote:
       | What impact might this have on astronomers both professional and
       | amateur? _Thinking about recent Starlink complaints_
        
         | tgv wrote:
         | Most probably don't look at the Sun. And TBH, if it would be a
         | really great idea, I wouldn't care about astronomy.
        
       | citizenpaul wrote:
       | I cannot believe that there is not a single critical comment yet
       | from supposed logical HN programmers.
       | 
       | Maybe we don't know how to engineer the earth and we should just
       | focus on terrestrial efforts before we die from HUBRIS of
       | something this drastic.
       | 
       | jeeze.... that don't look up movie had it right.
        
         | mhh__ wrote:
         | You can't read very well then. I see at least a few with a time
         | stamp older than yours
        
         | s1artibartfast wrote:
         | Terrestrial efforts are just as drastic if not more. What makes
         | this hubris but not those?
        
       | ttiurani wrote:
       | Reminder that the problem isn't just "too much GHG", but crossing
       | most planetary boundaries[1] at the same time.
       | 
       | I get why MIT has done the research, but this publicity is poised
       | to create yet another distraction and delay necessary actions. We
       | have to stop focusing on the symptoms and have the courage to go
       | after the root causes.
       | 
       | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planetary_boundaries
        
         | conductr wrote:
         | What if you think that collective human courage is not even
         | feasible? I'd venture to say it's naive to even believe we're
         | able to restrict ourselves to the magnitude required. Even if
         | one country found a solution, they'd have no control to exert
         | it on other countries and it would almost certainly come with
         | massive switching costs or limitations. Humans have too many
         | tribal motives and politics to support a single cause like
         | this.
        
           | philosopher1234 wrote:
           | yes restraint against structures is impossible, but if you
           | change the structures to be still beneficial for humans and
           | sustainable, thus not requiring restraint, youre good
        
             | conductr wrote:
             | That's not really a strategy or even a tactic. It's a
             | dream. Meanwhile, the clock is ticking.
        
         | jahnu wrote:
         | Not to mention the effects on our ability to think as CO2 goes
         | up.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | Fortunately that is already evidently nil, in aggregate.
        
         | hiidrew wrote:
         | Thanks for sharing this wiki article, I found it fascinating to
         | skim.
        
         | kbenson wrote:
         | > this publicity is poised to create yet another distraction
         | and delay necessary actions.
         | 
         | More knowledge and options are always better. It's up to the
         | people we've chosen to lead us to actually choose an option and
         | follow through, and I don't think one more option there is
         | really what's preventing that.
         | 
         | Preventing more options from being presented is just a way to
         | attempt to control the populace by restricting information.
         | Necessary action won't be taken unless there's strong
         | leadership willing to make it a priority, and there's already
         | enough options on the table that whether none or 100 new ones
         | pop up, it makes no functional difference to getting started
         | seriously, but it does possibly allow for a better option to be
         | chosen when we do.
        
           | runarberg wrote:
           | > It's up to the people we've chosen to lead us to actually
           | choose an option and follow through
           | 
           | So far this strategy has consistently lead to complete and
           | resounding inaction. The stronger the leadership the more
           | likely we are in actually going in the opposite direction
           | (see e.g. Businaro in Brazil or Trump in the USA).
           | 
           | More options have also shown to be a major distraction at
           | best and actively damaging at worst. Take carbon offsets as
           | an example of an option which actively hinders climate
           | action.
           | 
           | What climate justice activists have consistently been calling
           | for since at least COP 15 in Copenhagen 2009 is International
           | agreements, carbon tax, and green infrastructure. There has
           | always been fierce resistance from polluters in any of these
           | three items, and so far the political class has consistently
           | cited with the polluters. Then they use distraction policies
           | with questionable results (like cap-and-trade, carbon offsets
           | or magic bubbles) as an excuse not to enact proven policies.
        
           | guhidalg wrote:
           | More options is too simple. I hope you agree there is a
           | difference between "Humans cause climate change, we need to
           | get rid of humans" and "Humans cause climate change, we need
           | to reduce human impact to the planet". Presenting the first
           | one is an option that wastes everyone's time.
        
             | henearkr wrote:
             | Just for the sake of contradicting you, we (all the Humans)
             | could move outside of the biosphere, e.g. on the Moon or
             | Mars. That would completely remove our influence on the
             | biosphere, the atmosphere, the oceans...
             | 
             | However that would request so much Earth resources to
             | launch everybody and everything (and thus would
             | definitively destroy the biosphere in the process), that it
             | is just not feasible.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Exactly: a distraction, so strictly worse than not
               | hearing it.
        
               | henearkr wrote:
               | Yes, but there may be a benefit to launch _a part_ of the
               | Human world outside of the biosphere, e.g. the most
               | polluting industries.
               | 
               | It is worth thinking whether it is a good thing or not
               | that a very risky industry (for which an accident could
               | be really disastrous) can take place on the Moon.
               | 
               | We can also launch a bare minimum, and then let
               | _automated builder robots_ unroll the industry from local
               | resources (e.g. lunar silicates, other metals,...).
               | 
               | This can be how huge photovoltaic grids could be built on
               | the Moon, for example.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Maybe do that _after_ global catastrophe had been
               | averted.
        
               | henearkr wrote:
               | Of course we cannot rely on that, because photovoltaic
               | facilities built by builder robots would take too much
               | time to be of any relevance for the current crisis.
               | 
               | If it is launched now we may be able to use it a few
               | decades later.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | If it is launched now instead of building out renewables
               | as fast as we possibly can, civilization collapses, and
               | then it never happens.
        
           | ckastner wrote:
           | > _More knowledge and options are always better._
           | 
           | That's not even true in theory. Given a simple problem A,
           | when adding more options, at some point, choosing among the
           | options requires more effort than solving the simple problem,
           | if only by brute force. There's a reason why RDBMS sometimes
           | skip indexes.
           | 
           | And in practice, GP is right: with humans, too many options
           | eventually only distract from the problem.
        
             | SapporoChris wrote:
             | Well illustrated by Munroe as always. https://xkcd.com/309/
        
             | ragle wrote:
             | > Given a simple problem A, when adding more options, at
             | some point, choosing among the options requires more effort
             | than solving the simple problem, if only by brute force.
             | 
             | Hick's Law, more or less:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hick%27s_law
        
             | niclo wrote:
             | But you are considering an increase only in options without
             | the increase in knowledge to better evaluate options parent
             | is suggesting, and you are putting the constraint that only
             | single option at time may be adopted while in reality
             | multiple may work in parallel/together just fine.
        
             | kbenson wrote:
             | > Given a simple problem A, when adding more options, at
             | some point, choosing among the options requires more effort
             | than solving the simple problem
             | 
             | Only if you require that every option must be assessed. You
             | can always choose a random subset, or the first X entries,
             | as use those as the solution space. Additional solutions
             | provide for additional strategies in choosing a solution,
             | but at any time you can ignore additional solutions and
             | treat them as if they don't exist.
             | 
             | > And in practice, GP is right: with humans, too many
             | options eventually only distract from the problem.
             | 
             | The whole point of government is to provide a structure
             | such that decisions like this can be made be reducing the
             | set of people that needs to reach consensus to a manageable
             | about. Those people can choose to accept or ignore any
             | solution presented, and call on whatever expertise they
             | need to make that decision.
             | 
             | The whole idea of there being too many solutions only makes
             | sense when you you apply it towards the general public and
             | people whose job _isn 't_ to make such a decision or be
             | domain experts. Since those people aren't the ones actually
             | making the decision, providing too many solutions to the
             | problem to them is a non-issue, and for the actual decision
             | makers and domain experts they have on call, additional
             | solutions are beneficial.
             | 
             | Whether you or I are getting overwhelmed with the possible
             | solutions is irrelevant. We aren't ultimately the ones that
             | will decide what action to take (at least directly), and we
             | aren't the domain experts advising those that will decide
             | the plans (or present the ultimately small set of options
             | that are valid). At least I don't think so, unless you're a
             | domain expert, but even then, your role would just be to
             | provide advice (or if you're a politician in charge of
             | making this decision, but that's even less likely).
        
               | dllthomas wrote:
               | If you're choosing a random subset, then new worse
               | options may crowd out existing better options, so it
               | remains the case that more options isn't always better.
        
               | roughly wrote:
               | > Only if you require that every option must be assessed.
               | You can always choose a random subset, or the first X
               | entries, as use those as the solution space. Additional
               | solutions provide for additional strategies in choosing a
               | solution, but at any time you can ignore additional
               | solutions and treat them as if they don't exist.
               | 
               | This presumes that options are of equal value, or at the
               | least that there are more than N actual viable solutions,
               | where N is sufficient to ensure whatever sample size
               | you're using includes one of the viable ones. "Ignoring
               | additional solutions" presupposes that you know which
               | solutions you should ignore and still requires some form
               | of assessment of the solution space.
               | 
               | As for the rest - while indeed it is the job of
               | government to structure these decisions, recent history
               | suggests that the opinions of the broader public still
               | play a role in those decisions, that decisions are rarely
               | made based purely off their technical merits, and that
               | snake-oil salesmen can still do measurable harm to
               | decision-making in representative governments.
        
               | kbenson wrote:
               | > This presumes that options are of equal value, or at
               | the least that there are more than N actual viable
               | solutions, where N is sufficient to ensure whatever
               | sample size you're using includes one of the viable ones.
               | 
               | That _that_ presumes we 're looking through ideas
               | sequentially and thus are actually limited with the
               | number of choices we're generally presented with, when
               | really it's more akin to mapreduce when assessed at the
               | level of leadership and domain experts. Between billions
               | of people and thousands of domain experts, I don' think
               | we're actually reaching any real limits, given the
               | logarithmic nature of filtering good ideas in this way.
               | What that means is that in effect there's a pool of
               | solutions already filtered for viability and usefulness
               | to choose from.
               | 
               | All we're doing by entertaining the idea that we should
               | stop looking for and presenting solutions is giving
               | people an excuse to prevent ideas they don't agree with
               | from being spread to others. The whole idea of one person
               | thinking that because they think an idea doesn't have
               | merit that others shouldn't see it is itself harmful.
               | 
               | > while indeed it is the job of government to structure
               | these decisions, recent history suggests that the
               | opinions of the broader public still play a role in those
               | decisions, that decisions are rarely made based purely
               | off their technical merits, and that snake-oil salesmen
               | can still do measurable harm to decision-making in
               | representative governments.
               | 
               | There are many possible reasons why we don't see progress
               | from our leaders on certain issues. I'm not convinced
               | that there being 1000 possible solutions is any worse
               | than there being 10. I suspect that the same forces that
               | prevent progress work the same in both cases, and if
               | we're talking about less than 10 possible solutions, then
               | I think we haven't examined the problem well enough. In
               | any case, I don't think the problem of there being too
               | many solutions and too much information is as obviously
               | the problem as others are presenting it, and would want
               | to see a real argument presented and defended before I
               | would accept it at face value. That's not because I'm
               | trying to be overly argumentative, just that as I noted,
               | I just don't think it's as obvious a conclusion as others
               | seem to.
        
               | joe_the_user wrote:
               | _Only if you require that every option must be assessed._
               | 
               | The point is putting a given option into the public eye
               | results in the assessment process being activated.
               | 
               |  _...but at any time you can ignore additional solutions
               | and treat them as if they don 't exist_
               | 
               | Scientists in the lab can do this, should do this and not
               | publish half-baked solutions. Randos reading these ideas
               | can't do this given they don't have technical knowledge
               | to sort them.
               | 
               |  _The whole idea of there being too many solutions only
               | makes sense when you you apply it towards the general
               | public and people whose job isn 't to make such a
               | decision or be domain experts._
               | 
               | We live in a democratic society. If you can bs to some
               | number of average people, they may elect people who go
               | with the bs and force bs decisions. Especially when doing
               | nothing, despite disastrous consequences, serves the
               | interests of powerful. This is happening, this is the
               | mess we're in. It's frustrating people putting forward a
               | delusional idea of the decision process around these
               | event. That also doesn't help. IE, no, the decisions
               | haven't been and won't be made by unbiased, non-partisan
               | actors but rather they have been made by political forces
               | in a highly partisan and self-interested fashion. That's
               | why we're facing catastrophe (that there's a large fire
               | burning a bit North West of me doesn't help my mood
               | here).
        
         | sokoloff wrote:
         | It's a matter of framing the problem.
         | 
         | If the cause of climate change is heat gain from the sun being
         | higher than cooling via radiation to space, then GHG reduction
         | works by changing the second part, and partially blocking
         | insolation works by changing the first.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | ... and brings global catastrophe via ocean ecosystem
           | collapse nearer. No. Just no.
        
         | mrtweetyhack wrote:
        
         | atwood22 wrote:
         | Whether or not crossing planetary boundaries is a problem is a
         | matter of debate, not a settled fact. If we can treat the side-
         | effects of human disruption on the planet, then why is that not
         | sufficient?
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | Because disaster comes on at the same rate as before, but now
           | you are not doing anything about it.
        
       | OliverJones wrote:
       | 'Cmon. "MIT" didn't propose this. A group of researchers
       | affiliated with the Institute proposed this.
       | 
       | It's an idea. Not a budget request. Let's not blow it out of
       | proportion.
        
         | akira2501 wrote:
         | The space is already filled with ideas and zero action. It's
         | annoying that people affiliated with the university are using
         | it's name to capture journalists and simply put yet another
         | incomplete idea out there.
         | 
         | If this is truly a "life and death" situation as some people
         | cast it, then this is less than useless behavior and is
         | probably an actively malicious plan to just make money off the
         | whole morass.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | Yes. A pernicious distraction. We know what must be done.
           | Distractions slow or prevent that.
        
       | kokanator wrote:
       | Not the first time MIT has proposed pushing a cloud of debris
       | into orbit:
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_West_Ford
        
       | cirrus3 wrote:
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | TedShiller wrote:
       | What could possibly go wrong?
        
       | salimmadjd wrote:
       | We spent $6 trillion on the "War on terror" [0]
       | 
       | We do know we've had mini ice age as a result of "Grand Solar
       | Minimum" [1] (in addition to volcanic activities) which means
       | reducing the solar output does reduce surface heat.
       | 
       | At this point we need to really focus on taking action an
       | approaching this from many facets. As cutting of greenhouse gases
       | alone will not work. It requires the entire globe (at least the
       | G20) countries to invest in such endeavors.
       | 
       | [0] https://www.businessinsider.com/us-taxpayers-
       | spent-8000-each...
       | 
       | [1] https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2953/there-is-
       | no-i...
        
         | joe_the_user wrote:
         | _At this point we need to really focus on taking action an
         | approaching this from many facets._
         | 
         | Right now, we're effectively lying about how much action we're
         | taking in just one facet. Adding "many facets" just allows
         | those who fail to make hard choices to hide their bullshit in
         | more places. Only once there are strong controls on carbon
         | emissions could doing other things make sense - not just
         | because carbon emissions are the source of the problem but also
         | if we allow geoenigeering to be done to the standard of "carbon
         | credits" and other worthless hokum, it too will be hokum. We
         | need something - a popular political movement, strong
         | institutions, a coalition leaders, something - that force this
         | stuff 'cause the failure is now and visible.
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | Anything that is not cutting CO2 input to the atmosphere brings
         | global climate catastrophe, civilization collapse, and mass
         | extinction nearer.
         | 
         | Dressing up temperature helps not at all, but makes it look
         | like something is being done as it steals capital from doing
         | anything actually useful.
        
       | excalibur wrote:
       | I hate to burst their bubble, but it's unclear how they intend to
       | keep their bubbles from bursting prematurely. They could easily
       | be popped by space debris, or solar flares, or projectiles
       | launched by a rogue state, or just because that's what bubbles
       | do.
        
         | sholladay wrote:
         | Looks like they are optimizing for having the ability to easily
         | destroy the solar shield if, for example, the cooling effect is
         | greater than intended. I think that's a wise precaution. If the
         | bubbles can also be produced easily, which seems plausible,
         | then perhaps losing some of them to harsh conditions won't be
         | such a big deal. With reusable rockets becoming a thing,
         | replacing them could become more cost effective and simpler as
         | time goes on.
        
         | dtx1 wrote:
         | Build a bubble machine that constantly replaces popped bubbles
        
           | nomel wrote:
           | I wonder if they could use a material that would "dry" or
           | "freeze" in the shape of the bubble. Maybe harden from the
           | UV.
           | 
           | If the James Webb telescope gives a reasonable indication for
           | the amount of stuff floating around these Lagrange points, it
           | would be popped around once per month [1]!
           | 
           | 1. Four hits after 5 months:
           | https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2022/06/james-
           | we...
        
         | jsty wrote:
         | Perhaps it's as simple as "blow another one" - since they
         | propose constructing them in space one might keep the
         | construction mechanism nearby to replace any that are
         | prematurely popped
        
         | beanjuice wrote:
         | Space debris, solar flares, and rogue states are issues that
         | would impact other solar-shield type solutions (unlike
         | popping).
         | 
         | What the bubbles do address immediately is the manufacture of
         | something in space with a high planar surface area compared to
         | the volume and density (for getting it into space).
        
         | dr_orpheus wrote:
         | They are proposing putting the bubbles out at the Earth-Sun L1
         | point which is far outside where most of our current satellites
         | are. Space debris is not really a concern there and I wouldn't
         | put projectiles launched by a rogue state up there (there's
         | plenty of closer things they would want to hit first).
         | 
         | There are plenty of inflatable space-based structures that have
         | been proposed and some number of them tested (large inflatable
         | antennas, inflatable elements to increase drag and bring space
         | debris in, inflatable space habitats).
         | 
         | Granted, nothing is even within a few orders of magnitude of
         | what they are proposing building so there are certainly still
         | technical challenges.
         | 
         | Edit: Another technical challenge is the L1 lagrange point is
         | not a stable point, so the bubbles will require some sort of
         | control system (i.e. thrusters) to perform small orbit
         | adjustments and remain in that spot.
        
           | yupper32 wrote:
           | I agree that space debris isn't too much of a concern if they
           | have a very large grid of these bubbles. A percentage popping
           | over a decade will be calculated in.
           | 
           | But L1 doesn't mean it won't get hit. James Webb has already
           | been hit at its point in space.
        
       | piyh wrote:
       | Reducing sunlight to slow warming seems like the most desperate
       | move with unintended consequences. The planet has evolved for
       | billions of years with a constant amount of sunlight. Greenhouse
       | gas sequestering is the most direct reaction to a Greenhouse gas
       | problem.
        
         | staticassertion wrote:
         | One of the main claimed benefits is that this is easily
         | reversible, if it goes badly.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | If it goes badly, reversing it makes it _even worse_.
           | 
           | And going badly is guaranteed, because CO2 would continue on
           | up, and the ocean ecosystem would collapse. There are quite
           | dramatic fossil records of such events.
           | 
           | But civilization would collapse first, so there is that.
        
         | daenz wrote:
         | Not to mention one of the risks that they mention seems pretty
         | disastrous:
         | 
         | >One of the most serious potential risks of solar
         | geoengineering is termination shock. If we were to use solar
         | geoengineering to suppress global temperatures, but we didn't
         | do anything about CO2 emissions, and if for some reason you
         | were to stop suddenly, all of the solar geoengineering, then
         | those temperatures would suddenly spike back up. And that would
         | mean that human and natural systems had less time to adapt to
         | the new conditions.
         | 
         | So if it works for awhile, and then for some reason stops
         | working, we end up shocking every system on earth. I appreciate
         | that the scientists are hammering "we need more research" but I
         | don't think we are capable of identifying all of the
         | catastrophic failure modes.
        
           | TSiege wrote:
           | I think this argument really suffers from the fact that
           | aerosols from the burning of fossil fuels is currently
           | suppressing the full amount of warming we should be
           | experiencing given the composition of the atmosphere. In
           | other words, we're already masking some of the warming and as
           | we move globally off coal we're going to see warming spike.
           | 
           | Source: https://insideclimatenews.org/news/15092021/global-
           | warming-j...
        
             | daenz wrote:
             | It sounds like you're making an argument for slowly
             | decreasing the aerosols from fossil fuels, so that we avoid
             | the risk of termination shock, rather than an argument for
             | adding more risk to termination shock by adding space
             | bubbles.
        
               | TSiege wrote:
               | My point is that we will have to do some sort of solar
               | management given the fact that we are currently doing it
               | without even putting any thought into it.
               | 
               | Arguably we are currently experiencing a "termination
               | shock" given the move away from coal and other fossil
               | fuels to clean energy. But honestly I don't even
               | understand what "termination shock" really means. Does it
               | matter if removing aerosols happens over the course of a
               | decade or a century when the rise itself is the issue,
               | not the speed of which it happens. 10 years or 100 years
               | is too soon for any ecosystem or species.
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | False. Soot increases solar absorption. Cutting coal has
             | multiple desirable effects.
        
         | ominous_prime wrote:
         | Except it hasn't. Solar irradiance has steadily increased over
         | _billions of years_ , and fluctuates regularly with the solar
         | cycle. I'm not saying that this couldn't have unexpected
         | consequences, but you can't start from the premise that solar
         | irradiance has always been constant.
        
           | treeman79 wrote:
           | It also changes with snow cover. More snow means more
           | reflection, meaning cooler temperatures. A reason the Earth
           | spends such long periods in ice ages. We are still coming out
           | of the last one.
        
             | throwaway5752 wrote:
             | The net solar flux hasn't changed. What you are talking
             | about is increased albedo in specific areas. This is
             | lowering solar flux globally. How will this effect
             | agriculture? Plant life? Ocean life in twilight zones?
             | 
             | This is radically dangerous, and is only being proposed
             | because we refuse let extractive industries die or change
             | our lifestyles even slightly.
        
               | blooalien wrote:
               | > "This is radically dangerous, and is only being
               | proposed because we refuse let extractive industries die
               | or change our lifestyles even slightly."
               | 
               | So much exactly this... I hear people talk so much about
               | how intelligent and adaptive humans are, and how we're
               | sure to survive almost anything because of that
               | adaptability and intelligence, but then comes time to
               | change something small to _actually adapt_ to a _big deal
               | situation_ (like climate change for one example among
               | many) and nearly all of humanity bands together to _fight
               | against_ even the tiniest change in how we do things,
               | because apparently  "the way it's always been done" is by
               | far the best (even when it's _provably_ wrong or bad). I
               | truly hate humanity at this point because of this (among
               | many other quite valid reasons I won 't go into here).
               | The Universe will be a better place when we're all gone.
        
           | dkn wrote:
           | From the perspective of users of solar energy on Earth,
           | wouldn't an increase over billions of years appear constant?
           | My intuition tells me that evolution is much faster than
           | that, and any fluctuations due to solar cycle dynamics would
           | already be mitigated as expected by the same process, if it
           | is indeed so regular.
        
             | ominous_prime wrote:
             | What I was getting as is that you can't start with a false
             | claim to make a convincing argument. I didn't see what the
             | expected reduction is from the MIT research, but if it
             | falls within known effects of the solar cycle, Milankovitch
             | cycles, and recorded volcanic activity it's less risky than
             | stating that it's a change that the earth has never seen.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Even attempting it is disastrous, either way.
               | 
               | The only winning move is to shut down every attempt at
               | such distraction. We know what we must do. The only thing
               | remaining is to do that.
        
               | lukeplato wrote:
               | Not my area of expertise, can you please share reasoning
               | as to why reflecting sunlight is disastrous. also please
               | share evidence that attempting multiple strategies is
               | guaranteed to lead to failure or is even
               | probabilistically worse than only relying on current
               | trends of attempting to decrease co2 emissions
        
             | s1artibartfast wrote:
             | Solar variation is pretty significant and fast.
             | Milankovitch cycles are upwards of 10% solar radiation
             | change as fast as 5 or 10k years.
             | 
             | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles
        
           | mritchie712 wrote:
           | how long did it take to change in the past though? Seems this
           | would cause the change to occur quickly vs. over millions of
           | years.
        
             | s1artibartfast wrote:
             | 10-15 % change in radiation over 10k years is pretty common
             | for earth.
        
             | runarberg wrote:
             | Nuclear winters occur somewhat regularly in earth's
             | history, usually after a very large volcano erupted but
             | also sometimes after a large asteroid strikes. Unless I'm
             | mistaken the last such natural nuclear winter was after the
             | Pinatubo eruption in 1991, which caused a small but
             | significant global cooling effect of 0.5@C between 1991 and
             | 1993.
             | 
             | Volcanoes of the same scale happen around every 50 to 100
             | years, but larger ones with more sever global cooling
             | effects happen every 1000 or so years. Every 50 000 years
             | we can expect a mega-colossal super volcano. The Youngest
             | Toba eruption over 70 kya caused a nuclear winter for over
             | 5 years with an accompanying cooling which lasted possibly
             | for another 1000 years.
             | 
             | Even though these events are natural and happen regularly,
             | they are usually devastating for the life on earth, usually
             | with several species going extinct as a result. There are
             | theories that the Toba eruption almost wiped out all of the
             | human races and created a "bottleneck" in our evolution.
             | 
             | So evidence suggests that a quick dimming event range from
             | being insignificant to catastrophic for the life on earth.
             | There is for sure a reason for caution here.
        
           | oneoff786 wrote:
           | That seems on par with claiming global warming is no big deal
           | because the earth has been warmer or cooler at some point in
           | the past. Those billions of years are irrelevant.
        
         | TSiege wrote:
         | RE "constant amount of sunlight", this is actually untrue. The
         | suns energy output is increasing roughly 10% per billion years.
         | So it's actually never been stronger. It also means that we
         | have much less habitable time on earth than we thought
        
           | zaik wrote:
           | > 10% per billion years
           | 
           | So it's about 0.000029% more since humans have evolved?
        
             | treeman79 wrote:
             | Sea has risen 100 meters in last 20,000 year.
        
           | function_seven wrote:
           | An annual sunlight increase of 0.00000001 % is close enough
           | to "constant" to make no difference. And I didn't even bother
           | with compounding, so the real number is even smaller. It's
           | dwarfed by other solar cycles, and those are dwarfed by the
           | near-doubling of CO2 in our atmosphere.
           | 
           | I'm not automatically against geo-engineering approaches, but
           | we _do_ need to consider them desperate moves compared to the
           | reduction of the GHGs
        
         | shallichange wrote:
        
         | pastor_bob wrote:
         | Solar luminosity goes up 1% every 100 million years roughly.
        
         | Zigurd wrote:
         | Geoengineering in general is a high risk. But one aspect of
         | this form of geoengineering, unlike pumping something into the
         | atmosphere, is that it can be reversed quickly.
        
           | rootusrootus wrote:
           | > unlike pumping something into the atmosphere, is that it
           | can be reversed quickly
           | 
           | Isn't that a fundamental claim made by those who support
           | pumping sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere, however?
           | That if you stop pumping, it quickly degrades and the
           | atmosphere returns to baseline?
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | No, it means that temperature shoots up even faster than
             | before. Meanwhile, the distraction from fixing the root
             | cause brings disaster earlier.
        
         | shagie wrote:
         | We _did_ do that experiment once before. We grounded the entire
         | US air fleet following 9 /11.
         | 
         | https://globalnews.ca/news/2934513/empty-skies-after-911-set...
         | 
         | https://www.wired.com/2002/05/hot-on-the-contrails-of-weathe...
         | 
         | https://edition.cnn.com/2002/TECH/science/08/07/contrails.cl...
         | 
         | https://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_...
         | 
         | > NARRATOR: For 15 years Travis had been researching an
         | apparently obscure topic, whether the vapour trails left by
         | aircraft were having a significant effect on the climate. In
         | the aftermath of 9/11 the entire US fleet was grounded, and
         | Travis finally had a chance to find out.
         | 
         | > ...
         | 
         | > DR DAVID TRAVIS: We found that the change in temperature
         | range during those three days was just over one degrees C. And
         | you have to realise that from a layman's perspective that
         | doesn't sound like much, but from a climate perspective that is
         | huge.
         | 
         | > NARRATOR: One degree in just three days no one had ever seen
         | such a big climatic change happen so fast. This was a new kind
         | of climate change. Scientists call it Global Dimming. Two years
         | ago most of them had never even heard of it, yet now they
         | believe it may mean all their predictions about the future of
         | our climate could be wrong. The trail that would lead to the
         | discovery of Global Dimming began 40 years ago, in Israel with
         | the work of a young English immigrant called Gerry Stanhill. A
         | trained biologist, Gerry got a job helping to design irrigation
         | schemes. His task was to measure how strongly the sun shone
         | over Israel.
         | 
         | The thing with contrails (and we can turn it up by running
         | rich) is that we have seen that we can turn this on (and off)
         | relatively fast (days).
         | 
         | --
         | 
         | Further reading: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_dimming
        
         | javajosh wrote:
         | Indeed. The amount of photosynthesis going on is proportional
         | to inbound sunlight. So you might be able to reduce the
         | temperature of the planet in this way but you will also reduce
         | the amount of photosynthesis happening.
        
           | manmal wrote:
           | If the bubbles can be coated, then the filtered spectrum can
           | be influenced. Eg if 20-300Thz is filtered out, then we only
           | lose heat that's probably not really useful to plants.
        
             | javajosh wrote:
             | Yes, this would be ideal (although I've rarely seen light
             | measured like that - isn't wavelength almost always used?)
             | If you could have a bandpass filter allowing in ~400-700nm
             | light that would be kind of awesome - definitely a have-
             | your-cake-and-eat-it-too moment. (of course with our luck
             | there will be some process we need that we don't know about
             | that requires the rest of the spectrum too)
        
           | UncleOxidant wrote:
           | And with less photosynthesis happening, less CO2 is being
           | absorbed from the atmosphere.
        
           | s1artibartfast wrote:
           | Is it? This assumes the the vast majority of plant growth is
           | limited by sunlight, not nutrients, water, or anything else.
        
           | Melatonic wrote:
           | Depends where you reduce it though. Theres not a ton of
           | photosynthesis happening in the middle of the REALLY brutal
           | deserts and reducing some sunlight would also reduce the heat
           | and maybe increase plant life and photosynthesis. Thats
           | assuming you can control it that granularly though.
        
             | guelo wrote:
             | A shield at Langrangian L1 can't be very selective, it
             | would basically shade the whole planet.
        
       | vfclists wrote:
       | The usual expensive boondoggles most of these shill organizations
       | pretending to be think tanks and expert institutions come up
       | with.
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | Yes. Even promoting the idea brings global catastrophe nearer,
         | as it distracts from what we already know we must do.
        
       | credabablity wrote:
        
       | lukev wrote:
       | This is a radical and somewhat risky plan. But I think we should
       | fully explore it.
       | 
       | The _best_ plan, Plan A, would be drastically and immediately
       | decarbonize and cut CO2 emissions globally.
       | 
       | However, we have ample evidence that that is not going to happen,
       | or at least not fast enough. This is a tremendously difficult
       | problem because it requires a supermajority of actors to agree on
       | a course of action, despite some game-theoretic reasons not to.
       | Without a dramatic geopolitical shift, it's simply not going to
       | happen.
       | 
       | Geoengineering is Plan B, strictly inferior to plan A. But it has
       | the advantage that one sufficiently wealthy state or actor can do
       | it unilaterally, meaning there is a non-zero chance of it
       | actually happening.
       | 
       | Right now I am pessimistic enough about Plan A that I expect Plan
       | B may be necessary if we want to avoid the horrors of a +4.5c
       | climate change. And I sincerely hope someone eventually has the
       | balls to do it (after a massive amount of scientific due
       | diligence to mitigate risks like termination shock.)
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | Plan A + Plan B is strictly worse than Plan A, however much
         | success Plan A has. Anything with Plan B in means certain
         | catastrophe.
         | 
         | But promoting Plan B demonstrably generates enough sick
         | fascination to distract from determination to make Plan A work.
        
         | baggy_trough wrote:
         | Your Plan A is not the best plan because it ignores human
         | nature and is consequently unrealistic, as you recognize. The
         | best plan should be achievable.
        
         | LudwigNagasena wrote:
         | So you think that the obstacles in front of the worldwide de-
         | industrialization stem only from game-theoretic reasons and
         | have nothing to do with massive economic consequences that will
         | disturb the welfare of all people on Earth including precarious
         | populations?
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | Worldwide transition from extractive to renewable energy
           | would bring on prosperity like nothing else you can imagine.
        
             | LudwigNagasena wrote:
             | > drastically and immediately
        
       | sandbx wrote:
       | if it could act like shutters and open and close it would be very
       | useful to controlling the climate for humans
        
       | samiam_iam wrote:
       | problem solved. moving on.
        
       | kosyblysk666 wrote:
        
       | tacticaldev wrote:
       | Did they not see the Matrix Movie(s)?!
        
       | cuteboy19 wrote:
       | It might probably be more productive to cover the Sahara desert
       | in mirrors
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | That would be radically cheaper, but equally disastrous.
        
       | taylorius wrote:
       | I read that reforesting large areas would help reduce the CO2,
       | which makes sense. Is that considered a viable plan these days?
       | (At first glance it seems a less risky strategy than blocking out
       | the sun with a load of space bubbles.
        
         | Skunkleton wrote:
         | Correct me if I am wrong here: trees are part of the regular
         | carbon cycle. They don't live very long on a geological scale,
         | and when they die their carbon is repurposed. The big issue is
         | that we are taking a ton of carbon that was effectively
         | sequestered and releasing it into the atmosphere. There is no
         | known biological mechanism to resequester that volume of
         | carbon.
        
         | lalaland1125 wrote:
         | Reforesting doesn't take that much CO2 out of the system long-
         | term.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | Short-term is good if we are also doing something about long-
           | term.
           | 
           | If by the time the new trees fall and rot, we have stopped
           | burning coal, then they won't matter.
        
         | jpindar wrote:
         | It would help, but maybe not enough. Humanity isn't the only
         | reason the planet isn't covered in trees, they just don't grow
         | in many places such as deserts, mountaintops, etc.
        
         | dredmorbius wrote:
         | Forestry is amongst the land-use mitigations which are
         | discussed in the IPCC AR6 WG III report.
         | 
         | See page 84 of the Technical Summary, "TS. 5.6 Agriculture,
         | forestry and other land uses, and food systems"
         | 
         | https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg3/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_FinalDraft_...
         | 
         | Keep in mind that _net emissions_ is the concern, and simply
         | _stopping ongoing deforestation_ would contribute much. The
         | total Agriculture, Forestry, and other Land Uses (AFOLU) sector
         | accounts 13--21% of present greenhouse gas emissions (2010--
         | 2019), and could absorb about 1 /3 of total human emissions.
         | 
         | So yes, forestry, _among other land uses_ is a _partial_ and
         | probably _necessary_ but not _sufficient_ mitigation.
        
       | natch wrote:
       | How do they plan to deal with small bits of rock that tend to be
       | out there hurtling at high speed on various trajectories?
        
       | tuyguntn wrote:
       | So, instead of fixing the problem, we are introducing temporary
       | patch? As usual "temporary" becomes permanent.
       | 
       | I wish this solution won't be implemented
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | It could not be permanent, as civilization would collapse
         | shortly after.
        
       | marcodiego wrote:
       | Russia tried to opposite of it in the 90's: orbited a mirror to
       | warm Siberia:
       | https://www.nytimes.com/1993/01/12/science/russians-to-test-...
        
       | cs702 wrote:
       | Interesting, but the title borders on _linkbait_ , making it
       | sound as if an important institution, MIT, is formally proposing
       | launching a giant fleet of bubbles into space. Nothing of the
       | sort is happening. The reality is much less newsworthy, much more
       | mundane: A group of researchers at MIT is exploring a radical new
       | technology to cool the earth. In other words, this was an
       | ordinary day at MIT.
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | More ordinary than you know: ignorant half-measures, half
         | thought through, but promoted already.
         | 
         | Fewer ordinary days at MIT would be a plus. A few days of
         | actually thinking beyond hare-brained scheming would improve
         | MIT and its graduates.
        
       | seltzered_ wrote:
       | Somewhat related on the geoengineering front, see
       | https://www.meer.org/global (via
       | https://jembendell.com/2022/03/31/where-wisdom-and-geoengine... )
        
       | ParksNet wrote:
       | Excess CO2, and the impacts on human cognition from it, are the
       | great threat to civilization. We need geoengineering to strip CO2
       | out of the atmosphere. Iron seeding* and global Carbon Taxes seem
       | like the best options.
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_fertilization
        
         | tjr225 wrote:
        
         | gravypod wrote:
         | Cody's lab has a great video on this topic. This would also, in
         | thousands of years, create new deposits of oil.
        
         | pastor_bob wrote:
         | the rich will be able to afford CO2 scrubbers for their
         | airtight houses. Way cheaper
        
           | ParksNet wrote:
           | Indoor CO2 scrubbers (even just to separate CO2 from inside
           | air and exhaust it outside) would be a great technology right
           | now, since it would allow us to reduce ventilation
           | requirements and thus save on heating/cooling costs.
        
           | easytiger wrote:
           | Are you suggesting that the general atmospheric co2 will be
           | so high air will be unbreathable?
        
             | pastor_bob wrote:
             | They can rise high enough that general indoor levels (which
             | are usually higher) will be high enough to cause constant
             | cognition problems
        
               | easytiger wrote:
               | Modern building techniques and energy efficient designs
               | can ensure that anyway. Regardless of external co2
               | levels.
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | Civilization will collapse first, so no.
        
           | john-radio wrote:
           | It doesn't really matter if it's in your house or not; the
           | problem is global warming that's caused by the greenhouse
           | effect that's caused by the CO2 in the upper atmostphere. I
           | like the cut of your gib though.
        
       | pastor_bob wrote:
       | What is the benefit of a bubble over a super thin reflective
       | sheet?
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | Civilization collapses either way, so that is a wash.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | kristov wrote:
       | It does assume we will be capable of popping these bubbles if we
       | need to. We can not guarantee we will retain the capability to go
       | into space. It would be better perhaps to engineer it so it
       | naturally falls out of its location after some X years.
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | Since it would bring on global catastrophe and civilizational
         | collapse, spaceflight would end too.
         | 
         | Fortunately, it would collapse and blow away before long.
         | Unfortunately, that would make things even worse, for a while.
        
         | NegativeLatency wrote:
         | Seems like simulating a volcano eruption would be preferable to
         | shooting stuff into space. It will naturally decay in a
         | predictable amount of time, and you don't end up wasting energy
         | on as many launch vehicles and creating space debris.
        
       | lifeisstillgood wrote:
       | Actions like this, (or sprinkling iron fillings in the ocean to
       | breed carbon-fixing cyanobacteria or aluminium dust in the
       | atmosphere to reflect back sunlight) are all valid geo-
       | engineering _and all can look like aggressive military / eco-
       | system attacks_ even if you are only mildly paranoid.
       | 
       | The issue is not having MIT do it, but the Russians and chinese
       | and indians and Jakarta and Alberta and ...
       | 
       | The UN would be a good place to put a geo-engineering shared
       | facility where all these ideas are experimentally tested, with
       | scientists from dozens of countries so they can go home with
       | accurate models and say "yeah nah, that's not an attack".
       | 
       | And while we are at it we can set up panels on reducing car use,
       | better routing of airplanes to avoid contrails (see recent
       | podcast from freakonomics).
       | 
       | We have the answers - but there is no single solution - just
       | intelligent long term society wide changes that are not sexy or
       | populist and won't pay off for decades. We might struggle to find
       | politicians
        
         | titanomachy wrote:
         | Wow, I was totally unaware of the climate impact of contrails!
         | I knew that airplanes release a lot of greenhouse gases, but
         | I'd never heard that the contrails themselves are a problem.
         | 
         | https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58769351
        
           | tonmoy wrote:
           | The linked article does not give absolute numbers in tons of
           | CO2 equivalent but rather says reduce impact of contrails in
           | climate by 60%.
        
         | JoshTko wrote:
         | Note it's iron rust that helps breed carbon-fixing
         | cyanobacteria. Not iron filing.
        
         | moralestapia wrote:
         | Sorry, out of the loop, what's the deal with Alberta?
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | Anything Alberta does is a provocation?
        
           | lifeisstillgood wrote:
           | I meant Ottawa (cold place, somewhere up there waves hand) -
           | basically just any capital of any of G20/50/100/192
           | 
           | Doing something like Geo-Engineering _may_ be an important
           | and vital stop-gap to mitigate the worst effects of climate
           | chnage. But it is also dramatic and potentially causes other
           | side effects from crop failures to god knows what.
           | 
           | So when things get so bad that humanity says "yeah let's
           | block out the sun for a bit" we really really want to have
           | studied it hard and have as many countries in the world to
           | have signed up to pieces of paper that say "we tried this
           | crazy thing with our best scientists and it seemed ok, so we
           | trust that it's not a deliberate way to F%%k us over"
           | 
           | The UN might have better wording.
        
       | prashantsengar wrote:
       | A list of things that can go wrong
       | 
       | - the wind patterns on Earth change, resulting in climate change.
       | Seasons will alter. Rains will be affected. Widespread famines
       | and floods.
       | 
       | - Point 1 rendering a lot of solar and wind energy farms
       | unusable.
       | 
       | - Less sunlight results in less photosynthesis. This again causes
       | chimate change, loss of biodiversity.
       | 
       | What else?
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | Civilization collapses shortly after the ocean ecosystem, as
         | acidification continues on up. Then, CO2 levels off as input
         | falls off. Over millennia, CO2 declines. Over millions of
         | years, biodiversity recovers.
        
       | headcanon wrote:
       | There's a good video on this that talks about how a similar
       | technique might be used to terraform Venus over hundreds of years
       | [0]
       | 
       | The main physics problem I see is that Langrange points are
       | naturally unstable [1], so the bubbles would need to be
       | constantly correcting their orbit. This problem would be
       | compounded by solar radiation "blowing" the bubbles back to
       | Earth. There are clever ways to mitigate this for other designs
       | which are addressed in the video, but I don't see it addressed in
       | the article.
       | 
       | Edit: it looks like it is addressed somewhat in the source
       | article linked in another comment, by placing the bubbles a bit
       | further towards the sun than the L1 point to compensate for solar
       | winds. Also, If a bubble does eventually become unstable, they
       | may be cheap enough to destroy it and send another one up.
       | 
       | However, the primary problem I see with this approach is that we
       | are simply not politically ready as a species to attempt a
       | global-scale engineering project like that. Some countries may
       | find that climate change actually benefits them [2], or may even
       | impact a geopolitical rival even worse. These countries may be
       | inclined to send a few missiles toward L1 if thats the case.
       | 
       | Edit: Additionally, even if this does succeed, countries may see
       | this as an excuse to keep burning stuff despite the additional
       | negative consequences of carbon emissions [3]
       | 
       | [0]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-WO-z-QuWI
       | 
       | [1]:
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lissajous_orbit#:~:text=In%20p...
       | 
       | [2]:
       | https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/16/magazine/russ...
       | 
       | [3]: https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/ocean-
       | co....
        
         | yupper32 wrote:
         | > However, the primary problem I see with this approach is that
         | we are simply not politically ready as a species to attempt a
         | global-scale engineering project like that.
         | 
         | What's the point of bringing this up? Are you saying that their
         | research is futile and that they shouldn't bother? That we
         | should be funding something else?
         | 
         | There are separate groups of people working on the social
         | aspects. Let MIT and other research institutions deal with
         | coming up with solutions, and let politicians and activists
         | deal with getting the world ready.
         | 
         | From everything I've seen, it'll take a global-scale
         | engineering project of some sort to solve this problem. Might
         | as well have the group of solutions ready for when/if the world
         | is ready.
        
           | headcanon wrote:
           | > Are you saying that their research is futile and that they
           | shouldn't bother?
           | 
           | Not at all! We should absolutely be researching and
           | developing this type of solution. I fully believe that
           | eventually every populated planet will have some form of
           | solar mitigation strategy like this, but our political
           | structures would have to evolve as well.
           | 
           | I sincerely hope we're able to politically and societally
           | support such a project this century, but I'm not optimistic
           | on that timescale.
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | That is not the primary problem.
         | 
         | The primary problem is that even attempting it would bring on
         | global catastrophe just that much faster.
        
         | Melatonic wrote:
         | I like your venus idea a lot - always seemed like the better
         | planet to terraform anyways. Probably a LOT more chemicals and
         | gasses to work with and of course more sunlight / heat. It has
         | to be easier to remove shit we don't want than it might be to
         | ship it all the way to mars.
        
           | njarboe wrote:
           | Too bad Venus' day is 243 Earth days long. Quite a
           | terraforming project to spin it up. It's gravity is quite
           | Earth like, unlike Mars.
        
       | Devasta wrote:
       | It really is easier to imagine the end of the world before the
       | end of capitalism.
        
       | gmuslera wrote:
       | Wasting a lot dealing with a symptom while still failing to
       | address the real problem is the kind of solution that is not
       | solution at all.
        
         | anigbrowl wrote:
         | So does posturing. People disagree on the real problem: some
         | think it's fossil fuels, some thinks it's overpopulation, some
         | think it's industrialization. Can you be briefly specific about
         | your focus and preferred outcome?
        
         | ElijahLynn wrote:
         | There are plenty of "us" still working towards addressing the
         | real problem too, there is hope here.
        
           | wiz21c wrote:
           | Please do make videos so that we can quickly forget the one
           | from the article which is totally absurd...
        
         | tick_tock_tick wrote:
         | I mean it's fine for a system where the only thing that matters
         | is the symptoms. The only reason we care about the extra CO2 in
         | the air is because it's effect on the planets temperature; if
         | we fixed that who cares about the CO2?
        
           | oneoff786 wrote:
           | Everything that depends on the ocean, which is everything.
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | Civilization collapsing might be considered an effect.
        
           | chmod600 wrote:
           | There's also ocean acidification.
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | Yes. Ocean acidification -> ecosystem collapse -> global
             | civilization collapse.
             | 
             | There is only one way that works. All others mean disaster.
        
         | englishrookie wrote:
         | We need a quick fix. I'm based in the Netherlands, two thirds
         | of which is threatened by a sea level rise within the next
         | hundred years. If that sounds far away to you: my grandmother
         | died at age 99. There's a very reasonable chance my children,
         | teenagers right now, will live through this.
        
           | natch wrote:
           | Yes I expect unfortunately Netherlands real estate prices
           | will be crashing hard very soon.
           | 
           | People who like looking ahead when investing should be
           | thinking the same about all coastal and low lying regions.
           | Resale value will be nil.
           | 
           | By the time a 30 year mortgage is over, the next buyer will
           | be looking to the end of their own 30 year mortgage, and what
           | they see won't look good.
           | 
           | So there will be no buyers.
           | 
           | People don't want to leave worthless property to their
           | children, so the smart people who foresee this chain of
           | events will get out now.
        
             | rdevsrex wrote:
             | Ok, for that to be true, what degree of warming will cause
             | the sea to rise more than mitigations can be put in place?
             | 
             | If we keep warming to 3 degrees, do you think the sea works
             | will not be enough?
        
               | natch wrote:
               | It seems likely the sea rise will be a multi-century,
               | unrelenting, ongoing event of rise upon rise that will
               | not stop at the levels envisaged by anyone planning any
               | mitigations. So, no.
               | 
               | There is a reason scientists are concerned.
               | 
               | On the positive side for the Netherlands, their expertise
               | will be coveted worldwide as hapless nations futilely
               | seek to forestall the inevitable stage by stage.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | It won't matter, because civilization will collapse when
               | ocean ecosystem does, before then.
               | 
               | Collapsing civilization is bad for property values. And
               | for the concept of property as such.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | There is no "quick fix".
           | 
           | Attempting any sort of "quick fix" guarantees quicker
           | failure.
           | 
           | Civilization collapsing would anyway slow CO2 rise, but at
           | substantial... cost. Probably mass extinction would happen
           | either way.
        
         | sauwan wrote:
         | Why can't we address the symptoms as well as the causes?
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | Because addressing symptoms costs money that can then _not
           | be_ spent on the causes.
           | 
           | And, addressing symptoms does not actually put off
           | catastrophe.
        
         | julienb_sea wrote:
         | Fantasizing that we can eliminate and reverse fossil fuel
         | emissions without dramatically affecting global standard of
         | living (acutely in less developed societies) is also a non-
         | solution. We are going to have to deal with slowing but non-
         | zero emissions for a long time, which essentially implies we
         | will need to "deal with the symptom" as a primary remediation
         | action.
        
           | wiz21c wrote:
           | > dramatically affecting global standard of living
           | 
           | What's wrong with that ? That's the issue many have and
           | fortunately, you tell it like it is. People don't want to
           | change.
           | 
           | Public transportation, changing the "dream of traveling" into
           | another one, having electronic that lasts for 10 years
           | instead of 5, better insulation, and the list goes on. Yes,
           | one can change the global standard of living into _other_ not
           | lesser global standard.
           | 
           | Or you think it's already too late and then, well, it's
           | effectively too late.
        
             | concordDance wrote:
             | > What's wrong with that ?
             | 
             | It's not a vote winner.
        
             | julienb_sea wrote:
             | Energy security is mainly what I was referring to.
             | Inconsistent access and/or prohibitively expensive
             | electricity and gas is a huge problem for personal health,
             | healthcare, education and access to economic opportunities.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | And, ready access to renewables is a a great boon for
               | everyone.
               | 
               | Civilization not collapsing immediately, maybe moreso.
        
             | elefanten wrote:
             | You can't expect a majority to understand, much less
             | accept, the probabilistic systems thinking required to
             | conclude (and act on) dedevelopment.
             | 
             | Ambitious (and probably also clueless/disbelieving)
             | ideologues will spin junk food narratives that move the
             | masses.
             | 
             | And you will have war everywhere.
             | 
             | So it makes sense to roll the dice on remediation and hope
             | slow social change takes. The only alternative is a
             | horrible age for humanity, one way or another.
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | Economic forces are not slow. Renewables are radically
               | cheaper than any other energy source. Getting out of the
               | way of such change is all we need for it to happen very,
               | very fast.
               | 
               | Distracting people with things that will not end up
               | working brings catastrophe nearer.
        
             | baggy_trough wrote:
             | > What's wrong with that?
             | 
             | I should think that was fairly obvious. People do not like
             | to be "dramatically" poorer, or even just a little.
        
           | avgcorrection wrote:
           | Well, if we could wave a magic wand then it is obviously
           | better to stop climate change even if it means reducing the
           | global standard of living simply because out-of-control
           | climate change will harm living standards much more. But we
           | can't and developing nations are likely to go full steam
           | ahead, like we did back in the day.
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | They will do what is cheapest. Now that means building out
             | renewables.
             | 
             | Anything that interferes with building out renewables as
             | absolutely fast as they can be brings global catastrophe
             | nearer.
             | 
             | Global civilization collapse would be hard on people.
        
           | WFHRenaissance wrote:
           | The oceans will boil before air conditioning, McDonald's Big
           | Mac, and a new iPhone each year are taken from the hands of
           | Americans. Mark my words.
        
             | rootusrootus wrote:
             | Is air conditioning a real problem? It probably emits a
             | good bit less CO2 to cool a home 20 degrees than it does to
             | heat it 40 degrees in the winter.
        
               | manmal wrote:
               | ACs can be coupled with solar power, with only a very
               | small battery (reducing CO2 a lot). Or, as has become
               | common in some European countries, an electric air heat
               | pump could both heat and cool housing. With the
               | additional benefit that you get hot water as a side
               | product in cooling mode.
        
           | marssaxman wrote:
           | Obviously we cannot sustain current global standards of
           | living.
        
             | baggy_trough wrote:
             | That is not obvious at all.
        
         | mekoka wrote:
         | Keeping with your medical analogy, palliative care exists
         | because it's just practical to acknowledge that treating a
         | disease is also about dealing with human nature. You can't just
         | focus on the illness and ignore the discomfort it (and the
         | treatment) will create. Every effort counts.
        
       | seoaeu wrote:
       | Perhaps obvious, but the title would be less clickbait-y if it
       | were "MIT _researchers_ propose..."
        
       | Bantros wrote:
        
       | MikeHolman wrote:
       | Even if we did somehow get the political will to fund a project
       | of this magnitude, it could never work. The bubbles would get
       | blamed for every single snowstorm, unseasonably cold day, and any
       | other weather that happened after it was put in place.
       | 
       | I don't think it would last a year before it was taken down,
       | regardless of whether or not it did what it was supposed to do or
       | was responsible for any meteorological event.
        
         | tyleo wrote:
         | I like this take. I think I agree with it, though I wonder if
         | there is a limit. For example, if warming gets bad enough that
         | there are obvious issues causing millions, would it be enough
         | for folks to realize, "the negative consequences are worth it"?
         | 
         | I truly don't know.
        
           | ncmncm wrote:
           | I do. It would make things strictly worse, as CO2 continued
           | on up, poisoning the oceans until its food chain collapses.
           | 
           | That has happened before, immediately before massive global
           | extinction events. It would be a mistake not to avoid that.
        
       | WORMS_EAT_WORMS wrote:
       | Better direct link (and cooler page):
       | https://senseable.mit.edu/space-bubbles
       | 
       | For those who think this is absurd, this is a "what if, emergency
       | solution" as it explains.
        
       | gpm wrote:
       | Their website has a direct link to the press release and
       | associated material if you want to get information straight from
       | the horses mouth
       | 
       | Dropbox:
       | https://www.dropbox.com/sh/gk415yke8shtb84/AADfZbzC8xISX-lTm...
       | 
       | Press release:
       | https://www.dropbox.com/sh/gk415yke8shtb84/AAAaHVK7WNKCUN2rl...
       | 
       | PDF with more information:
       | https://www.dropbox.com/sh/gk415yke8shtb84/AABLA5kYXUrrZfidU...
       | 
       | ---
       | 
       | They don't give more information about the size than "brazil",
       | they do state the density as ~1.5g/m^2. Just multiplying that by
       | the area of brazil we get 1.3x10^13 grams or 13 million metric
       | tons.
       | 
       | That's a ton (heh) of mass, but within the realms of what SpaceX
       | is claiming they want to make possible (at least if they launch
       | it over a decade or two): https://wccftech.com/spacex-aims-to-
       | haul-more-than-a-million...
        
         | vagrantJin wrote:
         | > but within the realms of what SpaceX is claiming they want to
         | make possible
         | 
         | Is it possible to talk about space faring without mentioning
         | spaceX theories? Why not talk about companies that have been
         | sending stuff up there for decades?
        
           | gpm wrote:
           | For this amount of mass, no.
           | 
           | No one else has suggested that they are anywhere close to
           | lifting this amount of mass, or even have any future plans
           | that might change that. For reference, all time total mass to
           | orbit so far is < 20k tons.
        
             | philsnow wrote:
             | Lunar regolith seems to be about 20% silicon (by mass).
             | 
             | We could try to lift that much silicon from earth's gravity
             | well, or try to build a refinery and launch system on the
             | moon, with ~1/6th the gravity of earth.
        
               | gpm wrote:
               | Theoretically, but to make that work you're talking about
               | a far greater advance in space capabilities than "just"
               | launching from earth. You're still talking about
               | launching 10 millions tons of material, and you're going
               | to need local infrastructure to do everything like "make
               | launch vehicles and fuel" if you want it to be an
               | efficiency win over launching from earth.
        
       | orthecreedence wrote:
       | Oh look, another reason to favor fission energy.
        
       | edgefield wrote:
       | Or instead of relying on essentially magic we could deploy
       | current and known solutions that will solve the problem, but we
       | will have to invest real $, conserve, and consume less. Sadly,
       | there's no chance practical solutions that require worldwide
       | coordination will work as humans, especially those with money and
       | power, are generally selfish.
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | Current known solutions cost _much less_ than carrying on as we
         | are. Current economic winners, who are personally responsible
         | for the looming catastrophe, would take in less.
        
       | rthomas6 wrote:
       | This seems like an overengineered, cost-ineffective solution
       | compared to just building big white rafts in the ocean to raise
       | Earth's albedo. Same end result with much less engineering
       | challenge.
        
         | orthecreedence wrote:
         | Just start making all single-use plastics white and you've got
         | your ocean raft!
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | Cheap or expensive, invited disaster is disastrous.
        
       | jyounker wrote:
       | This does nothing for ocean acidification, nor the fundamental
       | restrictions that decreasing O2 percentages have respiration
       | tracheal respiration systems.
        
       | witrak wrote:
       | Short question: how these bubbles can be kept in the proper
       | place? Did the proponents consider the effect of light pressure?
       | Such a bubble is a classic solar sail, right?
        
       | conductr wrote:
       | Anyone else thinking of Mr. Burns' sun blocker?
        
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       (page generated 2022-06-29 23:02 UTC)