[HN Gopher] Not future-proofing
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       Not future-proofing
        
       Author : galfarragem
       Score  : 37 points
       Date   : 2022-06-24 08:02 UTC (14 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (kk.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (kk.org)
        
       | satyrnein wrote:
       | In the mid 1990s when my parents were building their house, I
       | absolutely could not understand why my dad had me spending the
       | weekend pulling a cat5 cable and 2 coax cables through the studs.
       | The coax ended up being a bad bet, by we got a LOT of value out
       | of that cat5. Even with the advent of wireless much later, we
       | still needed Ethernet to connect access points to the main
       | router.
       | 
       | That was probably our only good bet, though, so I still agree
       | with the punchline!
        
       | kkfx wrote:
       | It's possible to "future-proof" A BIT, in the term of _simplicity
       | of design_ , _small scale of the final product_ , _cheapness of
       | it_.
       | 
       | Or, please make simple houses, give them large space for any new
       | gear and make them last a human life, at the heritage the old
       | house should be unmounted, recycled and rebuilt with current tech
       | being upgradable enough for another human life. Made simple
       | software that can be easily changed like classic Smalltalk/Lisp
       | systems. Made things easy to recycle etc
       | 
       | Similar things happen in various domains: in the past we rush to
       | made megaprojects, now we prefer smaller ones. That's the future-
       | proofness: it's always a miss and hit scenario, but in most cases
       | a small miss is not costly, a hit is just nice. Short terms can
       | be predicted a bit, long terms demand simply the ability to
       | evolve.
        
       | epivosism wrote:
       | This is a BBC documentary of Stewart Brand presenting the ideas
       | in "how buildings learn" which makes the same point through
       | examples of what architecture works and what doesn't, over time.
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maTkAcDbrEY
        
       | skybrian wrote:
       | I found this part puzzling: "And the one place in my office I
       | still use wires -- my desktop -- the existing cat5 ethernet cable
       | was not fast enough for the new speeds of fiber optic."
       | 
       | What would fiber speeds be useful for in a home office? It seems
       | like for most people, Ethernet would still be fine?
        
         | justsomehnguy wrote:
         | Between "buy the perfect cable you would bury in the wall" and
         | "buy [almost any] fiber" and thr weird things you sometimes
         | need to do to route the cables in the house (I swear, people
         | who design them aren't from this planet) sometimes it would be
         | easier to just lay the fiber (and eat cost with media
         | converters and such) than to gamble on Cat6, _IF_ you really
         | need more than 1Gbit _reliably_.
        
         | sbierwagen wrote:
         | 10 gigabit still only needs cat 6A. 25 and 40 gigabit takes cat
         | 8, (and only goes out to 30 meters) while 50 gigabit is fiber-
         | only.
         | 
         | It's... physically possible Kevin is doing something that
         | requires 50 gigabit, but he's certainly not doing it with a
         | normal wifi setup.
        
       | mattjenner wrote:
       | But you did use use your copper telephone line during the
       | emergence of digital bits and bytes. Someone planned ahead for
       | you. Do the same.
       | 
       | Another take on future proof is around designing to avoid
       | unwanted obsolescence; we have finite resources on this big rock,
       | use what you can. Get creative. Not planning for the future will
       | see you under water.
        
       | pseudosavant wrote:
       | I had to install a 35' HDMI cable through my walls and attic 11
       | years ago. I bought the highest quality, largest wire gauge,
       | cable Monoprice had. I just upgraded my receiver and TV to 4K
       | HDR. Guess what, that HDMI cable that was bought before 4K HDR
       | even existed, works perfectly. I don't even have to use chroma
       | subsampling to bring the required bandwidth down. Oddly enough,
       | the one thing it can't do, that the new replacement cable, that I
       | haven't installed yet, can do is 1440p. 1080p and 2160p are fine.
       | Even though 1440p even at 120Hz is less bandwidth than 4K @ 60Hz.
       | Go figure.
       | 
       | I don't use my CAT6 as much as I used to, but where I do, it is
       | amazing. Wired connections are essential for remote work IMO.
        
       | quuuu wrote:
       | We can change the definition of "future-proof" -- your cable was
       | future proofed in that if you were using it for hundreds of
       | years, it wouldn't require any maintenance and if the age of
       | wireless tech never came, your cables would be relevant
       | 
       | Extreme example: not future-proofing cables would be like laying
       | them out above ground where the weather/ elements will destroy
       | them before a year's end
       | 
       | But agreed that buying for your immediate need, with a little bit
       | of futuresight is helpful
        
       | bhewes wrote:
       | At least in the houses I grew up in. It is very easy to rewire
       | everything. We went from cat5-cat7 (my dad still has the same
       | house). Though we use it more as a wireless trunk.
        
       | legulere wrote:
       | Even though I generally like the sentiment, replacing the cat-5
       | cable with a newer one should be a pretty fast task, and wired
       | ethernet always is better than wireless.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | satyrnein wrote:
         | I remember having to redo all the heads because we only
         | connected 5 wires initially, but the next speed level needed
         | all 8. Still, a few hours work for a 10x upgrade, so I couldn't
         | complain!
        
         | didericis wrote:
         | Agreed. Maybe there will be entangled particles in the future
         | that get shot out down wires and then allow you to
         | instantaneously communicate with people after you receive them.
         | 
         | The right future oriented mindset in terms of building a house
         | would be to make it easy to install wires. Or pipes. Or
         | whatever.
         | 
         | Just in time hardware is only useful if you have a place to put
         | it. That's the tricky part; trying to figure out how to make
         | sure you stay compatible with whatever new stuff comes along.
        
           | ghostly_s wrote:
           | Uh. You can't shoot a particle down a wire. The electron that
           | comes out the far end is not the same one that went in.
        
             | shitpostbot wrote:
        
           | bitwize wrote:
           | No, there won't be entangled particles that allow
           | instantaneous communication. Per the No Communication
           | Theorem, information cannot propagate faster than light
           | speed, end of story.
        
             | didericis wrote:
             | As you can probably tell, I don't know much about particle
             | physics and am not looking to get into a debate about that
             | specific hypothetical, was just saying wires (or small
             | tubes) might be useful for future stuff and it'd be nice if
             | they were easy to put on/take off of buildings.
        
       | D13Fd wrote:
       | I like KK's work, but the first part of this article is weird.
       | It's more of an argument for why you should leave pull strings in
       | your empty conduit.
       | 
       | That said, I agree with the idea of generally buying only what
       | you need and buying it at the time you need it.
        
         | lnwlebjel wrote:
         | I agree, he seems to argue for conduit, making the house more
         | configurable and thus better able to 'learn'.
        
       | petercooper wrote:
       | Broadly agree, though getting a Mac five minutes before you need
       | it isn't viable anymore given the two month backorder on many of
       | them :-)
       | 
       | Just in time provisioning certainly worked a lot better pre 2020!
       | Nowadays people are having to go to all sorts of odd lengths just
       | to pick up a games console released 18 months ago..
        
         | ozim wrote:
         | That was my thought as well since post is 23rd June 2022 - like
         | author missed what is going on with a lot of stuff.
        
       | eternityforest wrote:
       | The exception is with software. You can future proof by making
       | something into a general purpose computer that can be updated.
       | 
       | Also, by modularity, and by choosing up and coming stuff that is
       | clearly going to be big(Like the next generation of an existing
       | technology).
       | 
       | Buying something before you need it can definitely be a High
       | Crime against your own happiness.
       | 
       | But future proofing can sometimes be a tool to avoid owning more
       | "Stuff" without giving up functionality.
       | 
       | I just bought a MOLLE backpack. I expect the webbing standard to
       | be around, and that possibility in the future I might want to
       | briefly carry more stuff than normal, but I don't need to buy
       | anything but the pouches I want right now.
       | 
       | I also bought a solar generator. I was sure to choose one with
       | LiFePo4 and USB-PD inputs(Unfortunately, it still comes with a
       | dedicated DC power adapter that I do not want, but is otherwise
       | wonderful).
       | 
       | Of all the tech items I own, my phone and laptop probably inspire
       | the most confidence. I also like my Fire Stick. I rarely regret
       | buying something that's just a general purpose computer in
       | disguise.
       | 
       | They have the adaptability built in, without the need to add
       | hardware.
       | 
       | I also rarely regret choosing modularity.
       | 
       | Not so much in software, I don't do UNIXy stuff, because even a
       | dozen large apps is still a trivial amount of storage on a modern
       | disk.
       | 
       | But with hardware, the more standard all the connections are, the
       | less I have to own. If I use something once a month, I don't want
       | to drag out a special charger. I don't want adapter dongles in my
       | ports. I don't want uncommon consumables that only come from one
       | company.
       | 
       | My idea of future proofing is to mostly avoid dedicated hardware.
        
         | rockemsockem wrote:
         | My experience has been that software is where this is the
         | strongest. The term YAGNI (you ain't gonna need it) is very
         | much a precursor to this mindset, but I have found that you can
         | go further by just trying to write software that's easy to
         | change and update. However you should _not_ do that by
         | preemptive interface-design, etc, you should just focus on what
         | actually makes it easier to swap things out.
        
       | gumby wrote:
       | I ran the conduit vertically: from box in the room's wall down
       | into the basement where it was just open. That made it easy to
       | run whatever I wanted, and to change the wiring if needed.
       | 
       | I did have two conduits to the patch panel for each wing and a
       | conduit connecting the two panels. But these ones weren't
       | terminated by boxes, they were just open.
        
       | quesera wrote:
       | KK> I am trying to think of examples of successful future
       | proofing. Where someone figured out what was coming and built
       | something ready for it. Do you know any examples?
       | 
       | Commercial construction.
       | 
       | Don't try to predict the future. Reduce the structural essentials
       | to their minimum requirements (columns, beams, trusses, pans),
       | and make it easy to adapt the finish layer to changing
       | preferences or use cases.
       | 
       | Drop ceilings, non-load bearing walls, conduits for power and
       | signal, locate services (plumbing, HVAC, power, etc) in a
       | centrally-located stack to minimize the horizontal runs to
       | arbitrary locations.
       | 
       | I wish these ideas were more common in residential construction.
       | Most are easy to apply, although there would be a slight bump in
       | cost (10%?).
        
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       (page generated 2022-06-24 23:02 UTC)