[HN Gopher] Cooperation among an anonymous group protected Bitco...
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       Cooperation among an anonymous group protected Bitcoin during
       failures
        
       Author : Anon84
       Score  : 133 points
       Date   : 2022-06-10 22:27 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (arxiv.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (arxiv.org)
        
       | 100xdang wrote:
        
       | Imnimo wrote:
       | It's interesting that the centipede game experiment uses a high
       | rate of appreciation - _doubling_ the payoff every round. On the
       | one hand, this offers strong incentive to defect if you strongly
       | believe the next player will defect - you double your reward
       | (this is the strategy game theory predicts). But if you are less
       | confident, it doesn 't take much cooperation before you profit
       | significantly. If only the next two players also cooperate, you
       | will have done better than if you had defected.
       | 
       | It seems like rapid expected appreciation, combined with only a
       | small amount of confidence that the other players will not defect
       | (e.g. because you know they share your ideological preference for
       | Bitcoin to succeed) is enough to stave off defection.
       | 
       | I'd be curious to see what the human-player dynamics look like if
       | the expected future price does not increase so sharply, or is
       | even flat or expected to decline.
        
         | danuker wrote:
         | The last halvening, the price increased less than what a lot of
         | people expected (didn't reach $100k or $250k as per the Stock-
         | To-Flow model). And the peak was much smoother.
        
           | cinntaile wrote:
           | Did anyone really believe that the Stock-to-Flow model would
           | be a correct predictor of price? That seems awfully naive,
           | it's just some pseudoscientific nonsense.
        
             | danuker wrote:
             | If you used the raw model, without any smoothing, it still
             | predicted the $50k price correctly.
             | 
             | I think the smoothing gave too much weight to S2F and not
             | enough to plain time.
             | 
             | But I am really curious what will happen after 2024. That
             | is when S2F _really_ diverges from a plain time power-law.
             | 
             | https://danuker.go.ro/bitcoin-price-predictions.html
        
       | DennisP wrote:
       | This is an interesting paper in a lot of ways. I think the least
       | interesting part is what most media is reporting, that
       | shockingly, Bitcoin didn't suddenly become a massively
       | decentralized network in its first two years of operation.
       | 
       | The most intriguing part to me is this: "game in which anonymous
       | players can choose to exploit, and thereby undermine, an
       | appreciating good...we show that, even when individual payoffs
       | are unchanged, cooperation is more frequent when the game is
       | played by an anonymous group."
        
       | ntoskrnl wrote:
       | A 51% attack in those days would have made no sense. These were
       | the days before exchanges or even an exchange rate. To trade you
       | had to post on a forum or IRC and wait around for an answer. If
       | the network was attacked, it would have been announced on those
       | same forums. To pull off an attack you'd have to set up a room
       | full of 100 computers CPU mining, hope that nobody noticed the
       | hashrate suddenly doubling, and _maybe_ get a few pennies worth
       | of BTC for your efforts.
       | 
       | There was a much easier way to get bitcoin back then: Go to the
       | bitcoin faucet and type in your address.
        
         | arealaccount wrote:
         | The internet button that gives you $150,000 of June 2022 money
         | for free once a day every day.
        
           | bozhark wrote:
           | Oh, I saw $500/transaction.
           | 
           | Thought that was the limit
        
             | DennisP wrote:
             | It was five bitcoins per day. I actually looked at it back
             | then, and decided it wasn't worth the effort.
        
       | tylersmith wrote:
       | This is exactly how it was predicted to work in the whitepaper.
       | I've always been skeptical about it holding longterm, but this
       | paper seems to be confirming that's held for now.
       | 
       | > If a greedy attacker is able to assemble more CPU power than
       | all the honest nodes, he would have to choose between using it to
       | defraud people by stealing back his payments, or using it to
       | generate new coins. He ought to find it more profitable to play
       | by the rules, such rules that favour him with more new coins than
       | everyone else combined, than to undermine the system and the
       | validity of his own wealth
        
         | timmg wrote:
         | What if he does it without being detected?
         | 
         | There are probably a bunch of wallets from back in the day
         | whose owner lost their key. Take some coin out of those. Then
         | no one knows. Sell it. Move on.
        
           | wmf wrote:
           | A 51% attack cannot take other people's coins. It can only
           | double-spend coins owned by the attacker and there's no way
           | to do a 51% attack without people noticing.
        
             | pcthrowaway wrote:
             | A double spend would _sort of_ be taking other people 's
             | coins though. Once you revert the first spend, the
             | recipient loses their coins.
        
               | vincnetas wrote:
               | yes, but you cant take random coins from random walets,
               | you can only take what you transacted recently.
        
       | Terry_Roll wrote:
       | > we reveal that between launch (January 3rd, 2009), and when the
       | price reached $1 (February 9th, 2011), most bitcoin was mined by
       | only sixty-four agents.
       | 
       | So who can work out which addresses were mine?
        
         | bozhark wrote:
         | There were pools even then though
        
       | toomim wrote:
       | This paper acts like it's surprising that miners would cooperate
       | and play by the rules:
       | 
       | > Although bitcoin was designed to rely on a decentralized,
       | trustless network of anonymous agents, its early success rested
       | instead on cooperation among a small group of altruistic
       | founders.
       | 
       | But the Bitcoin whiteppaer says very clearly that it's designed
       | to give miners and incentive to cooperate:
       | 
       | > The incentive may help encourage nodes to stay honest. If a
       | greedy attacker is able to assemble more CPU power than all the
       | honest nodes, he would have to choose between using it to defraud
       | people by stealing back his payments, or using it to generate new
       | coins. He ought to find it more profitable to play by the rules,
       | such rules that favour him with more new coins than everyone else
       | combined, than to undermine the system and the validity of his
       | own wealth.
       | 
       | https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
        
       | 0daystock wrote:
       | Interesting paper, but whether the early cooperation was
       | necessarily altruistic in nature remains a mystery to me. The
       | highly centralized structure which transpired to make Bitcoin
       | popular and regarded as secure raises suspicion about its
       | legitimacy and true intentions, in my mind. Over a decade later,
       | digital currencies have become much more palatable and even
       | attractive to people, that there's even talk of government-backed
       | DC's, and this resulting Overton window shift has significant
       | implications for individual freedom and society.
        
         | nwah1 wrote:
         | No central bank digital currency is planning to use a
         | blockchain. A blockchain would add fundamental insurmountable
         | drawbacks. Digital money using databases has been around since
         | before the internet. Central bank digital currency is just a
         | minor addition to our current digital financial infrastructure.
        
           | rvz wrote:
           | > No central bank digital currency is planning to use a
           | blockchain.                  f a l s e
           | 
           | What is this then? [0][1] Where we have those same
           | _blockchain_ technologies from the likes of Stellar, XPRL,
           | Algorand, etc that are compliant with the ISO 20020 standard?
           | 
           | As I said before on what is _really_ going on, both the
           | crypto maximalists and the crypto skeptics are going to be
           | very disappointed in achieving their unobtainable and extreme
           | goals.
           | 
           | [0] https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ukraine-
           | electronic-...
           | 
           | [1] https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210922005878/en/
           | Roy...
        
             | ljf wrote:
             | That is not a central bank...
             | 
             | From Wikipedia A central bank, reserve bank, or monetary
             | authority is an institution that manages the currency and
             | monetary policy of a state or formal monetary union, and
             | oversees their commercial banking system. In contrast to a
             | commercial bank, a central bank possesses a monopoly on
             | increasing the monetary base.
        
               | rvz wrote:
               | > That is not a central bank...
               | 
               | Assuming you read the entire press releases, so the Royal
               | Monetary Authority of Bhutan as I previously mentioned
               | [0], and the National Bank of Ukraine' NBU' mentioned in
               | the press release and is part of the pilot program [2]
               | are not central banks?
               | 
               | What does this say here? [0]                  The Royal
               | Monetary Authority of Bhutan is the central bank of
               | Bhutan...
               | 
               | And here [1]                  The National Bank of
               | Ukraine is the central bank of Ukraine...
               | 
               | It also says here [2]:                  The National Bank
               | of Ukraine (NBU) selected the distributed ledger
               | technology, in particular the private version of the
               | Stellar protocol, to study opportunities of issuing
               | e-hryvnia and to carry out the Pilot Project.
               | 
               | The Reserve Bank of Australia have also implemented an
               | Ethereum-based CBDC proof-of-concept which was
               | successful. [3]
               | 
               | So the claim _' No central bank digital currency is
               | planning to use a blockchain.'_ is still _false_. I think
               | there is a strange sense of denial with the commenter who
               | created that unfounded and baseless absolute claim.
               | 
               | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Monetary_Authorit
               | y_of_Bh...
               | 
               | [1]
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Bank_of_Ukraine
               | 
               | [2] https://bank.gov.ua/admin_uploads/article/Analytical+
               | Report+...
               | 
               | [3] https://www.rba.gov.au/media-
               | releases/2021/mr-21-30.html
        
               | nwah1 wrote:
               | Every reputable organization that rolled out a pilot
               | project did nothing afterwards. There is no plan to
               | actually use a blockchain for anything beyond
               | speculation, money laundering, criminality, and scams.
        
               | rvz wrote:
               | > Every reputable organization that rolled out a pilot
               | project did nothing afterwards.
               | 
               | I see. So after you realised your absolute claim was
               | refuted, you set out moving the goalposts to create
               | another absolute claim, yet that is still wrong again.
               | 
               | The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is using a blockchain
               | for their e-Naira CBDC and that has already launched many
               | months ago. [0] So even when you tried moving the
               | goalposts, your claim has still been refuted once again!
               | 
               | > There is no plan to actually use a blockchain for
               | anything beyond speculation, money laundering,
               | criminality, and scams.
               | 
               | So Moneygram is not a reputable organisation using a
               | blockchain? [1] Perhaps Stripe isn't either [2] who's
               | first partner with crypto payouts is Twitter. Maybe that
               | is why they both waited for regulatory clarity before
               | using these technologies?
               | 
               | This is the problem of having very absolutist statements
               | and creating sweeping claims as you have done. It forces
               | you to move the goal posts on your original claims,
               | create fallacies and do whatever to dodge counter
               | questions.
               | 
               | [0] https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bitt-
               | develops-afric...
               | 
               | [1] https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/moneygram-
               | launches-...
               | 
               | [2] https://stripe.com/blog/expanding-global-payouts-
               | with-crypto
        
           | kriops wrote:
           | A central bank and blockchain technology are antithetical
           | concepts, and if a central bank is ever offering you
           | something blockchain it's probably a scam by means of sham
           | decentralization.
        
             | NikolaNovak wrote:
             | >>A central bank and blockchain technology are antithetical
             | concepts,
             | 
             | I feel I need to screenshot this. It demonstrates more
             | succinctly than I could write an essay on, how much we are
             | muddying up technology, and purpose / politics / ideals
             | when we start discussing this area (Crypto currency etc)
             | 
             | How is a human institution in your mind "antithetical" to a
             | _technology_? Is a government  "antithetical" to 3rd normal
             | form or airline antithetical to a b-tree? You are inserting
             | a large number of undisclosed assumptions to even begin to
             | make such a statement (whether aware of it or not).
             | 
             | >>if a central bank is ever offering you something
             | blockchain it's probably a scam by means of sham
             | decentralization.
             | 
             | I don't disagree with this... I just think it neatly
             | extends fully to "if anybody is ever offering you something
             | block chain" :-)
        
               | mintyDijon wrote:
               | >How is a human institution in your mind "antithetical"
               | to a technology?
               | 
               | It's not human institution vs technology, it's the very
               | structure of central banking vs decentral banking. It's
               | the concepts themselves that are antithetical.
               | 
               | -Edit I couldn't remember the word, but I believe the
               | term that applies here is 'diametrically opposed'
        
               | NikolaNovak wrote:
               | But that's the unspoken assumption I'm talking about -
               | that blockchain and decentralized banking are one and the
               | same / that this is the only design use case for the
               | technology. There are many people actively working in
               | block chain space who do not believe these are identical
               | concepts. They may yet win out long term.
        
               | mintyDijon wrote:
               | I'm not claiming that blockchain is a one use concept.
               | Yes it can be used for other things then banking. I
               | personally feel that NFTs are a great example of that,
               | and that they hold many possibilities for the future.
               | 
               | But the main benefit that blockchain provides is a way to
               | decentralize a network, it's quite inefficient from a
               | performance standpoint. So to use it for anything other
               | than that is a waste (at least currently). Centralized
               | currencies are better than decentralized ones performance
               | wise, and I don't predict that will change anytime in the
               | near future.
               | 
               | To quote Eldenwrong's perfect comment here "You can use a
               | rock as a spoon but that just makes you retarded"
               | 
               | Hense blockchain currencies (the ones that aren't scams
               | ofc) are decentralized by their nature, since that's the
               | only draw to using that method.
               | 
               | Because of the Pareto distribution this should fail at
               | some point, but with the innumerable amount of new
               | currencies coming into existence, that shouldn't be a
               | problem.
        
               | kriops wrote:
               | I feel like you're intentionally playing semantic games,
               | i.e. trolling, so let me tell you straight that I don't
               | appreciate that.
               | 
               | The fact a central bank is a "human institution" is
               | irrelevant. The fact blockchain is a "technology" is also
               | in itself irrelevant. The point is that each concept
               | necessitates characteristics that are irreconcilable.
               | Most importantly a central bank can not function without
               | central authority. The defining property of the
               | blockchain is the decentralization of authority.
               | Authority can not be simultaneously centralized and
               | decentralized, and so the blockchain and the central bank
               | are antithetical concepts.
        
               | kortilla wrote:
               | > The defining property of the blockchain is the
               | decentralization of authority
               | 
               | No it's not. A blockchain can be used in a way that only
               | specific central authorities can add to it. https://en.wi
               | kipedia.org/wiki/Blockchain#Private_blockchains
        
               | eldenwrong wrote:
               | You can use a rock as a spoon but that just makes you
               | retarded.
        
               | kortilla wrote:
               | Are you familiar with git repositories?
        
               | astrange wrote:
               | I was kind of expecting you to link to an article about
               | Git repository permissions.
        
               | NikolaNovak wrote:
               | >> The defining property of the blockchain is the
               | decentralization of authority.
               | 
               | So "unaware assumptions" it is then.
               | 
               | I'm sorry if you perceive that as snarky (and not
               | everyone that disagrees is a troll btw), but to me,
               | decentralized authority is what some people perceive an
               | important (if not zealous) use case. It is not the
               | defining property of blockchain. There are many companies
               | that are building distributed ledger with centralized
               | authority. You may disagree with that use case. I feel
               | it's lack of self awareness to think a valid and clearly
               | implemented use case is somehow antithetical to a simple
               | neutral well defined technology.
        
               | Banana699 wrote:
               | >There are many companies that are building distributed
               | ledger with centralized authority.
               | 
               | The fundamental innovation of the bitcoin protocol is how
               | it made the blockchain, a traditionally centralized data
               | structure invented in the early 1990s, a distributed
               | append-only database using PoW consensus. It's
               | _incredibly_ inefficient, its unimaginable inefficiency
               | is there to buy trust in a trustless peer-to-peer
               | network. You 're basically forcing every writer to cut
               | down a pound of their own computational flesh to write to
               | the database. How can this be necessary or useful in a
               | trusted setting? why can you not rely on trust or
               | traditional register-and-authenticate to write to the
               | database?
               | 
               | You're either using PoW consensus or you're not. If
               | you're, you're not a central authority (unless the
               | blockchain is somehow not an authoritative state and
               | you're simply using it as a fancy bulletin board), if
               | you're not, then whatever you're doing is different from
               | what everbody else have been calling 'blockchain' since
               | 13 years and you're just inviting confusion by calling it
               | that.
        
               | ryani wrote:
               | I think there's a difference between "blockchain + PoW"
               | and "blockchain". Blockchain taken literally is just
               | verification of history via hashing. It's a form of
               | provenance that is hard to fake. Even if you are a
               | central authority as to what transactions are being made,
               | you can't rewrite history beyond any point that you've
               | made publicly visible, without losing the trust of people
               | who rely on you as a central authority, as to do so you
               | would need to break the hashing algorithm.
        
               | DasIch wrote:
               | Blockchain has a purpose: consensus without trust.
               | 
               | Central banks are institutions that are trusted and
               | cooperate with trusted institutions.
               | 
               | In general as long as you have a mechanism to establish
               | trust-based consensus by relying on people or a
               | government there is really no advantage by using a
               | blockhain and a huge number of disadvantages.
        
               | NikolaNovak wrote:
               | I agree.frequently it seems I'm in twilight zone minority
               | :-)
        
             | bozhark wrote:
             | Both are, always have been
        
         | audleman wrote:
         | > The highly centralized structure which transpired to make
         | Bitcoin popular
         | 
         | What centralized structure?
        
           | 0daystock wrote:
           | Read the paper this thread is about.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | lupire wrote:
         | It's not a huge mystery. "altruism" is author opinion not
         | science. Double spending is a short term benefit, but risks
         | destroying the value of your holdings by discrediting the whole
         | system. Double spending only works in truly arms length
         | transactions, where the victim can't retaliate AND trusts you
         | enough to accept the transaction in the first place.
        
           | Ekaros wrote:
           | Also the gains for such action must be larger than resources
           | spend. You are over spending the rest of the network in work,
           | thus the transactions must be larger than possible gains from
           | doing the same work in "main" chain.
        
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       (page generated 2022-06-11 23:02 UTC)