[HN Gopher] Enormous 'rogue waves' can appear out of nowhere
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Enormous 'rogue waves' can appear out of nowhere
Author : cpach
Score : 136 points
Date : 2022-06-09 07:22 UTC (2 days ago)
(HTM) web link (www.nationalgeographic.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.nationalgeographic.com)
| m3047 wrote:
| Owned a 40 foot sailboat with 5+ feet of freeboard. Waves refract
| going around islands (lee side has weird waves even if less
| wind), through currents and over shoaling. The Strait of Juan de
| Fuca is sometimes referred to as Juan he Fuck You because of the
| "haystacks". You see them: "oh there was a haystack! did you see
| it?"
|
| Ran into one once; two feet of green water rolled across the
| deck. And then it was gone.
| dna_polymerase wrote:
| A good video about the overall topic:
| https://youtu.be/2ylOpbW1H-I
| Azrael3000 wrote:
| The topic reminded me of some fun wave tank videos like this
| one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4384y5ZRRIs
| [deleted]
| FunnyBadger wrote:
| Yep.
|
| The "traditional view" is basically a linear model view.
|
| The new understand involves nonlinear models.
| euroderf wrote:
| In the Baltic (to take an example), I would expect that altho it
| is a large sea, its relatively small size (compared to the open
| sea) and its shallowness would not provide the conditions for the
| formation of rogue waves.
| irrational wrote:
| Non subscription link?
| pabs3 wrote:
| Turning off CSS and JavaScript lets you read the whole article.
| Possibly just turning on reader mode will do that too.
| bryanrasmussen wrote:
| there's archive.org
| https://web.archive.org/web/20220611061036/https://www.natio...
| but it also has the subscription popup there, a pattern I've
| been noticing more and more.
|
| on edit: maybe archive.org should have reading options menu
| somewhere, so you can say read this without JS, reader mode,
| etc.
| 1vuio0pswjnm7 wrote:
| Looks great in a text-only browser. Easy to read. No popups.
| Ever.
| jdeibele wrote:
| Use reader mode. Worked for me in Safari on desktop, anyway.
| [deleted]
| tableofzero wrote:
| The math of rogue waves is discussed at
| https://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/2399430
| wffurr wrote:
| That page completely locked up Chrome on my Pixel 4a.
| tomrod wrote:
| Same here, Vivaldi on Pixel 3a. Plus a pay wall on the OP
| site. It would be nice to participate in the conversation.
| bornfreddy wrote:
| Fwiw, it works in Firefox on Android.
| lelandfe wrote:
| https://origin.wolframcdn.com/consent/cookie-consent.php
|
| I think it's because of a cert issue? Locks up my computer,
| too. I'm surprised Chrome doesn't kill the runaway code.
| labrador wrote:
| Surfers are very familiar with how two waves that come in
| different angles combine into a very high wave at the
| intersection. I really don't understand why monster waves seem so
| mysterious to scientists. I'm certain they happen all the time
| but no one is there to observe them except for the occasional
| unlucky sailor.
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wedge_(surfing)
| yieldcrv wrote:
| > I really don't understand why monster waves seem so
| mysterious to scientists.
|
| Because the explanation isn't complete. A surfer seeing
| something 10 seconds beforehand and reacting to it has nothing
| to do with why it was occurring at all.
| hinkley wrote:
| I mean, there was just an article about how scientists
| discovered that worms travel after a rain, which is something I
| figured out when I was ten.
|
| Science has a lot of blind spots. Surfers and children aren't
| high on the list of people to consult or observe. Nor for a
| long time was folk medicine.
| labrador wrote:
| I spent a lot of time on the ocean surfing and then in the
| Navy. I've seen a lot of strange wave behavior and have been
| fascinated by it, so I suppose rouge waves don't seem odd to
| me in a chaotic fluid situation.
| zionic wrote:
| Well from my understanding the core problem is the statistical
| models used to calculate their probability were completely
| wrong.
|
| So we had "hard" math "proving" they were once-in-a-million-
| years unlikely, and that lasted until we had overwhelming
| observational evidence to the contrary (in this case buoy data)
| saberience wrote:
| Because what you're describing isn't a "rogue wave," it's just
| a slightly bigger wave. I'm not a surfer and am just a person
| who's been swimming in the sea a handful of times and I've seen
| this phenomenom. The rogue waves being described are incredibly
| rare to the point that sailors who have sailed 5000 hours have
| never encountered one and are sometimes talked about as though
| they are mythical.
|
| When rogue waves were originally discussed the heights
| discussed were considered to be such that they were a 1 in
| 10'000 year probability, and there wasn't anyone living who
| could provide first hand evidence, just records of ships going
| missing and "rumors" amongst sailors.
| ok_dad wrote:
| When I was in the navy, the old Grizzly senior dudes would
| talk about rogue waves like the green flash [0]; some
| insisted they knew someone who saw one and others were sure
| that both were amongst the oldest sailor jokes in existence.
| It seems both phenomenons are real!
|
| [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_flash
| snowwrestler wrote:
| Highly recommend "The Wave," by Susan Casey, a nonfiction book
| that covers research into open ocean rogue waves, and also
| surfers attempting to predict and ride the largest breaking
| waves.
| hcrisp wrote:
| Also _The Perfect Storm_ in which the author discusses rogue
| waves and contemplates that one took down the _Andrea Gail_.
| belter wrote:
| Looks like for surf there is a new record:
| https://youtu.be/zOYL15QOvWE
| LoveGracePeace wrote:
| It caused me to take a bad fall at sea one time, rogue waves do
| happen and they are horrific.
| bombela wrote:
| Firefox on Android. Page freezes at load and I cannot scroll.
| plutonorm wrote:
| I wager the same process of discovery is about to happen for
| UFOs. As sensors become more capable we will see more and more
| hard data. This will move the needle on scientific opinion and
| that in turn will spur research.
|
| The two phenomena may even be related - rogue waves in the fields
| of QFT...
| political12345 wrote:
| 4ggr0 wrote:
| No need to insult them, UFO is a completely normal
| description which is also being used to describe unknown
| stealth-planes from foreign militaries, as an example.
|
| With better sensors, such things can be better detected and
| analyzed.
|
| UFO != Aliens and tinfoil hats.
| hobs wrote:
| > This will move the needle on scientific opinion and that
| in turn will spur research
|
| This person is clearly advocating for SETI, not airplane
| research.
| alephnan wrote:
| Why is this being downvoted?
|
| > Scientific doubts about these mysterious, giant waves were
| not completely dispelled until 1995, when a rogue wave hit the
| Draupner oil rig, a natural gas platform in the North Sea off
| the coast of Norway.
| photochemsyn wrote:
| This article is hard to read, like most media outlets these days.
| Why do they run so many scripts, that call other scripts, that
| call other scripts...? Here's the nutshell anyway, via Firefox +
| NoScript + Ublock Origin and selectively blocking certain
| elements:
|
| > "Scientists have since figured out that unlike tsunamis, which
| are large waves produced by a sudden displacement of water from
| an event such as an earthquake or landslide, rogue waves form due
| to a chance combination of wave movements through the ocean."
|
| > "Two main mathematical theories have emerged to explain the
| wave movements that spawn rogue waves: Linear addition and
| nonlinear focusing. Linear addition assumes that waves travel
| through the ocean at different speeds, and when they overlap,
| they can strengthen into a rogue wave. Nonlinear focusing assumes
| waves travel in groups and can lend energy to one another, which
| sometimes spawns a rogue wave."
|
| > "One reason for the uncertainty is that rogue waves are rare.
| Even now, there's a dearth of quality tracking data."
|
| For those not at sea in a boat, but walking along a coastline,
| the practical thing to keep in mind is that just because the
| ground is dry, doesn't mean a sneaker wave can't come along once
| an hour, so be careful and keep your eyes on the ocean.
| s1artibartfast wrote:
| Mostly relevant if if you have small children playing at the
| beach in an area known for Riptide. Sneaker waves are a big
| issue if you're doing things like fishing from a Breakwater
| like tide pooling and don't know how to swim.
|
| I think consideration of the environment you're putting
| yourself into is vastly more important than constant vigilance
| [deleted]
| [deleted]
| paulcole wrote:
| > Why do they run so many scripts, that call other scripts,
| that call other scripts...?
|
| To answer your question with a question, how much money did you
| take out of your pocket and give to National Geographic in
| exchange for reading the article?
| shiftpgdn wrote:
| Well since their website is unusable (never mind the fact
| that a nature magazine has turned to culture war) I won't be
| giving them anything.
| selimthegrim wrote:
| The worst part is when you pay for a 12 month subscription
| and they cancel it after 11 and ask you to renew.
| stereocodes wrote:
| [deleted]
| dheera wrote:
| Paste in console to read the article
| document.querySelector('.Modal').remove();
| document.querySelector('body').style.position='';
| document.querySelector('body').style.overflowY='';
| CPLX wrote:
| Or hit reader view.
| kzrdude wrote:
| I was wondering the other day, is there a generic "article-
| munging" firefox addon? Maybe you'd make rules per site how to
| make it readable. For example enable reader view automatically
| on some domains, pass some domains through 12ft.io (paywall
| remover) automatically and so on :)
| 11235813213455 wrote:
| There's a "Continue without accepting" button for me, but else
| I tend to do like this too (remove modal/iframe and some
| class/style on body)
| ryannevius wrote:
| FYI and unrelated to anything else...you can simply do
| `document.body` to get the `body`.
| nimish wrote:
| Mathematics has known about solitons since 1844.
|
| I thought it was well known that rogue waves are Peregrine
| solitons? Few other models can explain their observed behavior as
| well.
| account-5 wrote:
| I watched a documentary about them ages ago where the
| demonstrated how rogue waves can form by natural processes as
| different directional (terminology most likely wrong) waves cross
| each other. Wish I could remember enough about it to post a link.
| hnuser847 wrote:
| You might be thinking of "cross sea":
| https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_sea
| gonzo41 wrote:
| If you've ever double bounced someone on a trampoline it's the
| same effect. Constructive interference is awesome.
| abruzzi wrote:
| if a physics/acoustics class the professor set up a pair of
| speakers 30ft apart each playing a simple sine wave. The
| students then marched in front of the speakers, probably 50ft
| away, and as you walked you could clearly hear where the
| constructive and destructive interference was happening.
| hugh-avherald wrote:
| The causes of rogue waves are not understood.
| okamiueru wrote:
| Is there a lot more to it than "random waves, it's less and
| less likely for them to overlap more and more, but sometimes
| that too happens"?
| [deleted]
| tastyfreeze wrote:
| Wobble a glass of water just the right way and you will get
| rogue waves from constructive interference. The problem is
| predicting them in the ocean.
| geuis wrote:
| The worst part of trying to read articles being published by very
| legitimate orgs like National Geographic are the mobile website
| decisions they allow their product teams to make.
|
| In this case, just as I'm getting into the first few paragraphs
| of the paper some popup or override kicks in. Usually asking for
| a signup.
|
| I think it's time to stop this destructive practice of attention
| grabbing instead of READING THE ARTICLE.
| whimsicalism wrote:
| it's the process of trying to get paid for content, not
| attention grabbing
| dheera wrote:
| I've mostly stopped reading websites on mobile because of this.
| On desktop I have various plugins and scripts in place to get
| rid of most of the annoyances.
|
| It's not only subscription popups these days, there are also
| the goddamn GDPR popups (which don't even apply to me),
| Intercom popups, and ads of sorts that pop up separately from
| the newsletter signup.
|
| Very often within a few seconds these mobile websites have 80%
| of the content covered by sometimes 2 or 3 separate annoyances,
| at which point I generally think it's not worth dealing with
| them anymore and just quit.
| afterburner wrote:
| Firefox mobile allows uBlock and noscript extensions.
| oblak wrote:
| I refuse to do actual browsing without NoScript in place.
| No ads, no popups, nothing.
|
| Well, sometimes there's literally nothing, because SPA, but
| most of time it's just some kind of cover or body opacity
| set to 0. Totally worth the tradeoff on desktop and mobile.
| No ads, man. No fucking ads
| Wistar wrote:
| I use NoScript and have for years but it sure gets
| exhausting to go to a site and find, in many cases,
| several dozen scripts that have to be "temp trusted" to
| get anywhere. I usually give up.
| mkbosmans wrote:
| This is a commercially available product for wave prediction on
| ships: https://nextocean.nl/wavepredictor.php
|
| Not specifically meant for rogue waves though, but rather to
| predict calm streaks in the waves affecting the ships motion.
| This is useful, e.g. when landing a helicopter or transferring
| cargo or persons to another ship while at sea.
|
| I can confirm that there is a lot of interesting math involved
| and, as noted in the article, a challenging amount of computation
| to do in a real-time prediction setting.
| workingon wrote:
| There are also open source tide and wave models, which is what
| researchers use and are fairly accurate. Not sure how much this
| commercial product differs, but I know the Navy etc. use the
| open source ones with in house adjustments.
| mkbosmans wrote:
| Sure, but tide and wave models generally cover a much larger
| area, such as whole coastal area's and over larger time
| spans. An example of such a model would be:
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eN6CDaoMZ7U In the
| Netherlands this is used e.g. to determine when to close the
| storm surge barriers to protect the river delta area from
| flooding due to a tide+storm combination.
|
| In contrast, the Next Ocean product is meant to model the
| direct area around a single ship, predicting minutes in
| advance with a second by second granularity. They are able to
| reuse the raw data coming from the navigation radar that is
| already installed on every sea-going ship. It uses the
| backscatter from water ripples to determine the wave field
| around the ship. Interestingly, for navigational purposes
| exactly this part of the data is considered noise and
| filtered out by the on board navigation system.
| (https://nextocean.nl/technology.php)
|
| [I did some work on the software implementation for Next
| Ocean a couple of years back]
|
| Anyway, neither type of model has anything to do with rogue
| waves.
| amelius wrote:
| I wonder to what extent all the mathematical modeling can
| be replaced by modern run-of-the-mill data science
| techniques.
| AlotOfReading wrote:
| Other than the computational cost, why would you want to
| use stats when you have an analytic model right there?
| amelius wrote:
| Flexibility: the problem might change in ways that are
| difficult to model. Also, the model might capture
| "unknown unknowns". And before you say that you need
| massive amounts of data: so does an analytical model,
| assuming you want to verify it.
| mkbosmans wrote:
| My guess would be: not that much. But I work in the field
| of numerical mathematics and computational physics, so I
| could have some bias. :-D
|
| The more nuanced answer would be that taking the raw
| radar data as input to e.g. a neural network and train
| that to output the predicted timeseries of future ship
| motion is not feasible. It would take a giant network and
| too much compute to train for very unreliable results.
|
| This problem consists of a lot of subproblems, most of
| which are pretty well understood. For example how to
| translate the 6-dof motion of a ship to the vertical
| displacement of a heli platform on that ship is just some
| simple coordinate transforms. You don't gain anything by
| including that in the neural net. Potentially some data
| science techniques could be useful to handle some of the
| less understood submodels. Sort of like it is done in CFD
| with NN as a turbulence model within an existing PDE
| solver.
| ShamelessC wrote:
| Am an ML engineer with no experience on this subject. Do
| you think research like deep mind has done with now-
| casting could be useful here?
| dzhiurgis wrote:
| > can we land skippy?
|
| > one moment, just downloading this project off github
|
| > just downloading few gigs of dependencies
|
| "Cannot use import statement outside module"
| satori99 wrote:
| ESA satellites were used to find out more about rogue waves, and
| develop statistical models for prediction, shortly after they
| were first accurately measured in the 1990's.
|
| The program was known as MaxWave;
|
| https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/PubServices/2005pdfs/Rosenthal....
| bornfreddy wrote:
| Thank you, sounds interesting! Another source:
| https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Ship-si...
| [deleted]
| jnurmine wrote:
| Could this be used for electromagnetic (and other) waves as well?
|
| I suppose the principles are similar for a medium in which
| oscillations move into some direction(s) etc.
| i_no_can_eat wrote:
| The electromagnetic equations are linear, whereas the fluid
| dynamic ones are non-linear. This difference is crucial for
| this phenomenon.
| [deleted]
| NickChasanis wrote:
| MIT also did a similar research years ago for Monster waves which
| is exactly the same as rogue waves (i guess there is no spesific
| name about it) they are really important for maritime industry,
| they're in theory for now, but some will claim that can actually
| have a sensor like that, well they dont, but its funny to waste
| time with sales people.
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