[HN Gopher] U.S. Air Force says it conducted successful hyperson...
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       U.S. Air Force says it conducted successful hypersonic weapon test
        
       Author : prostoalex
       Score  : 65 points
       Date   : 2022-05-17 16:26 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.reuters.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.reuters.com)
        
       | cersa8 wrote:
       | How much of this is hype and boasting about military advances.
       | According to this article hypersonic missiles are far from
       | practical https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-physics-
       | and-h...
        
         | MR4D wrote:
         | I'd love to pick this article apart, but instead I'll just
         | offer this:
         | 
         | The Phoenix missile (which used to be carried by the F-14) is
         | borderline hypersonic [0]. And it is shot at airplanes.
         | 
         | Now imagine an Exocet-type missile but at a much higher speed.
         | 
         | A fast missile does one very important thing - it reduces the
         | time the defender has to react, and thereby increases the odds
         | of the attack succeeding. Glide-paths, targeting, etc are just
         | variations of an attack plan - speed is what kills.
         | 
         | [0] -
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIM-54_Phoenix#:~:text=Speed%3...
        
           | godelski wrote:
           | Just note that hypersonic weapons are also used defensively.
           | There's research into using them to take out ICBMs during the
           | boost phase. This is the only part of the missile sequence
           | that has a high chance of neutralizing the missile threat but
           | also the most difficult phase to counteract.
        
           | ortusdux wrote:
           | See also: Supercavitating torpedos, which reportedly can
           | travel at 300-350 mph.
        
             | JoeAltmaier wrote:
             | And destroyed the first submarine that tested them!
             | Russian, the typical failure of a new torpedo is guidance,
             | which often results in the device describing a circular
             | route instead of a straight one. Ending up back where it
             | started. So they fired, and before you could say Jack
             | Robinson it hit them, having traveled in a circle of a mile
             | or so.
             | 
             | Or so I recall from reports after the fact.
        
         | dirtyid wrote:
         | Not practical for US who has platforms to hit global targets at
         | much lower costs, i.e. money spent on hypersonic research can
         | build up enough JASSMs to last until WW5.
         | 
         | But IMO useful backup if adversaries manage to negate platforms
         | like carriers and long range bombers. Basically, establishing
         | conventional MAD with CONUS Prompt Global Strike using
         | icbm/hypersonics.
         | 
         | Flip side is this is massively benefitial to PRC (or anyone
         | else) who can't catchup in conventional force posture to hit
         | CONUS with anything but hypersonics. For them it's low hanging
         | asymmetric fruit that comprehensively deters US power
         | projection. IMO we're entering era where advanced rocketry
         | including meter level CEP and accurate terminal guidance will
         | proliferate and obviate a lot advantages of current power
         | projection platforms.
        
           | Victerius wrote:
           | > build up enough JASSMs to last until WW5
           | 
           | Love the imagery.
        
           | rad88 wrote:
           | Honest question, how would you describe MAD as being
           | practical? Bearing in mind that the treaties to maintain it
           | were abandoned, and both sides invest (and act) heavily in
           | rocking the boat?
        
             | idiotsecant wrote:
             | I think it's hard to argue that MAD isn't in effect right
             | this second. If there was no threat of massive retaliation
             | and possible resulting extinction is there any doubt Russia
             | would have used nuclear weapons in it's Ukraine invasion?
        
               | rad88 wrote:
               | Why would they? There are 8 million Russians living in
               | the country, and close social ties besides. Putin
               | consistently lies and says 80% of the population is
               | Russian and that Ukraine _is_ Russia. Plus the fact that
               | Russian people are generally not psychopathic murderers,
               | the invasion could only be acknowledged as a limited
               | operation, they depend on the world and European
               | economies, the military destroyed other countries
               | /regions far away from NATO and then had no need for the
               | atom bomb either... yes I think there's room for doubt.
        
               | idiotsecant wrote:
               | >Why would they?
               | 
               | Because they would win with the resources they have
               | available. It's not that complicated.
        
               | rad88 wrote:
               | I see. You don't realize that they are already going to
               | "win".
        
         | zozin wrote:
         | They are. Chinese and Russian "advances" in hypersonics are
         | pure marketing. The US was testing scramjets in the 1960s. The
         | US has a hypersonic space plane. Alas, the media fell for it
         | and billions are now being spent on "catching up" with our
         | "peer" competitors.
        
           | secondcoming wrote:
           | I'm no expert, but I think one of the issues with the
           | missiles from the 60's was that they got so hot from air
           | friction that a plasma enveloped it which prevented it from
           | being guided. Same as how comms are temporarily lost with
           | space shuttles on re-entry. Maybe the Russians have overcome
           | that issue.
        
           | cracrecry wrote:
           | This is not Marketing. This is a real thing.
           | 
           | It is a real thing that they can put a several nukes in one
           | of those and kill the entire population of New York, or
           | London, or Paris in five minutes.
           | 
           | Also it is real that Putin has used exactly that card, that
           | threat as a negotiation tactic, in order to get away with
           | invading a foreign country, in order to compensate for the
           | joke of a country they are.
           | 
           | Putin has specifically said that: that he developed those
           | weapons, that they can be nuclear and no country can
           | neutralize them.
           | 
           | History teaches us that accommodated Societies usually fall
           | under much primitive rules like the Mongols with Genghis
           | Khan, or the Huns, The Romans (against the Greeks), the
           | Germanic tribes(against the Romans), the Arabs(against the
           | Persian and Byzantine empires), the British against the
           | Spanish Empire, the Russians against the Germans and so on.
           | 
           | The US, or UK, France, Poland or Germany just can't ignore
           | it, whenever they like it or not. There is someone out there
           | telling Ukraine is their property or else.
           | 
           | They need to develop a neutralization of those weapons.
           | 
           | A country just can't ignore an Arms race if the adversary
           | follows it, they have to follow as well.
        
           | nimbius wrote:
           | the missile in TFA only achieved fivefold the speed of sound.
           | Russias Avangard moves at _twenty-seven_ times the speed of
           | sound. thats faster than the re-entry speed for the space
           | shuttle endeavor. it also advertises a newfound
           | maneuverability.
           | 
           | Americans under-estimate their adversaries sadly quite often.
           | when the TU95 bear first arrived during the cold war era its
           | specifications were habitually lowballed by analysts until it
           | appeared on radar over Canada. When the RQ710 was deployed in
           | Iran with the same arrogant impunity, it was intercepted,
           | landed, and dissected. heck, we spent about two decades
           | insisting we could depose a cuban leader and just as long
           | insisting we would "win" against the taliban.
           | 
           | and when the united states assumed china incapable of a
           | cryptographic advantage, the nation summarily identified and
           | executed more than a dozen spies thanks in part to dismissive
           | hubris.
           | 
           | https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-espionage-
           | idUSK...
           | 
           | the absolute worst thing you can do is dismiss a capable
           | enemy.
        
             | greedo wrote:
             | The US also overestimates the threats from its potential
             | adversaries quite frequently. The Soviets weren't 10ft
             | tall, and the modern Russian military has been shown to be
             | quite fragile in Ukraine. Perhaps military intelligence is
             | a bit harder than posting on HN.
        
               | tablespoon wrote:
               | > The US also overestimates the threats from its
               | potential adversaries quite frequently.
               | 
               | Yeah, for instance, IIRC, the F-15 (at least partially)
               | resulted from a severe over-estimation of the
               | capabilities of the Mig-25.
        
           | robonerd wrote:
           | All ballistic missile reentry vehicles are hypersonic too.
           | Talk of "hypersonic" without specifying the technology and
           | actual capabilities is quite silly. Presumably hypersonic
           | _cruise missiles_ is implicit context.. but I don 't believe
           | the general public understands that and the media is doing a
           | generally terrible job of communicating it.
        
             | ramesh31 wrote:
             | >All ballistic missile reentry vehicles are hypersonic too
             | 
             | Sure, but ballistic trajectories are trivially
             | interceptible. It's not just about speed. The new arms race
             | is with hypersonic glide vehicles that are capable of
             | maneuvering all the way to the target at mach 8+. With
             | that, the weapon becomes impossible to intercept with any
             | existing technology.
        
               | greedo wrote:
               | Bah...
               | 
               | A SLBM (sub-launched ballistic missile) can reach a
               | coastal target in less than five minutes depending on the
               | exact trajectory. Good luck trying to intercept that.
        
               | robonerd wrote:
               | Presumably addressing this threat is what America's 50+
               | SSNs are for.
        
               | greedo wrote:
               | Presumably, but the ocean is a big place. Now todays
               | threats are far different than at the peak of the Cold
               | War. The Russian SSBN fleet is a shell of itself, and the
               | PLAN is still just dabbling in sub-based deterrents. The
               | diminished threat is matched by the absolute disrepair of
               | USN anti-sub warfare skills. These have atrophied beyond
               | description in the last 30 years.
        
               | Aunche wrote:
               | Iron dome can't even intercept all of the subsonic
               | rockets fired by terrorists with very limited budgets.
               | Even if the entire US GDP was directed towards missile
               | defense, I doubt that China or Russia would have any
               | trouble overwhelming these systems simply by throwing
               | enough conventional MIRVs at it.
        
               | towaway15463 wrote:
               | Being able to ensure a strike with a single missile is a
               | force multiplier especially when it comes to deterrence.
               | If you need 10 missiles to ensure one hit your enemy may
               | think they have favourable odds in a first strike. If you
               | only need 1 missile per hit then the outcome of a first
               | strike is not so good if they don't get every single one
               | of your missiles.
        
               | tmccrary55 wrote:
               | If only someone had directed energy weapons...
        
               | rad88 wrote:
               | A ballistic missile could be within a few hundred miles
               | of any point near the coast and be there in less than 5
               | minutes. You're saying this is "trivial" to intercept,
               | what does that mean?
        
               | hungryforcodes wrote:
               | Existing. Soon to be found.
        
               | robonerd wrote:
               | My money is still on Aegis BMD intercepting the missile
               | during the terminal phase. Hypersonic glide-boost weapons
               | are mainly for avoiding mid-course interception. When
               | you're going hypersonic, 'maneuverable' is relative; the
               | turning radius is quite huge and such missiles will be
               | easy for Aegis to track during the terminal phase.
        
               | ramesh31 wrote:
               | >When you're going hypersonic, 'maneuverable' is
               | relative; the turning radius is quite huge and such
               | missiles will be easy for Aegis to track during the
               | terminal phase.
               | 
               | Except the associated plasma shielding makes it invisible
               | to radar. And the Russian ones are capable of sea
               | skimming and maneuvering at mach 8 in the terminal phase.
               | At those speeds, you're talking horizon to impact in
               | seconds. We really have nothing that can touch it.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3M22_Zircon
               | 
               | We like to think of ourselves as massively advanced
               | beyond Russia and China, and we are to an extent. But the
               | reality is that the US military has wasted the last 20
               | years in pointless counterinsurgency operations that have
               | narrowed our view to the actual threats we face, and de-
               | prioritized this kind of cutting edge stuff. There's some
               | serious catching up we'll need to do (both
               | technologically and organizationally) to maintain
               | deterrence against the rising conventional threats of
               | authoritarian major powers.
        
               | hdjjhhvvhga wrote:
               | I think it is definitely a problem: not because we do not
               | actually have the tech required (I believe we do, to some
               | extent), but because Putin has so broken intelligence
               | process he might come to the conclusion we don't, and
               | makes some stupid moves because of that (although I'd
               | have found this idea laughable ta best before 24
               | February). Therefore I expect a couple of carefully
               | worded Reuters articles related to successful
               | intercepting mach 5 missiles at first.
        
               | thereddaikon wrote:
               | >Except the associated plasma shielding makes it
               | invisible to radar.
               | 
               | You mean makes it very visible to radar but blocks any rf
               | emissions to and from the vehicle itself right? This is
               | no different than reentry effects we see on spacecraft.
               | They are easily tracked by radar but have a radio
               | blackout period until they slow down enough.
               | 
               | >And the Russian ones are capable of sea skimming and
               | maneuvering at mach 8 in the terminal phase. At those
               | speeds, you're talking horizon to impact in seconds. We
               | really have nothing that can touch it.
               | 
               | The Russian missile is a paper invention for propaganda.
               | It effectively does not exist. And if it does then they
               | only built one. It is not an operational weapon and never
               | will be. Russia is a poor country that is run by thieves
               | who siphon money from their military to buy mansions and
               | yachts. Just like T-14 and Su-57, Zircon is a propaganda
               | wunderwaffe that will never be in combat.
               | 
               | China is bigger problem. But at the moment they have just
               | fielded boost-glide vehicles. Not scramjets.
        
               | throwaway0a5e wrote:
               | >Except the associated plasma shielding makes it
               | invisible to radar.
               | 
               | Anything moving mach 8 is gonna light up like a Christmas
               | tree in other parts of the EM spectrum.
        
               | robonerd wrote:
               | > _Except the associated plasma shielding makes it
               | invisible to radar._
               | 
               | All hypersonic ballistic missile reentry vehicles have
               | this plasma stealth. That doesn't stop Aegis BDM from
               | tracking and intercepting them. Have you ever seen a
               | reentry vehicle coming in? They're as bright as
               | meteorites, very easy to see.
               | 
               | > _And the Russian ones are capable of sea skimming and
               | maneuvering at mach 8 in the terminal phase._
               | 
               | These are the hypersonic cruise missiles; very different
               | from hypersonic boost-glide missiles. This is what I mean
               | about the media talking about "hypersonic" generically
               | without specifying the technology they're actually
               | talking about; it leads to people believing that
               | 'hypersonic' is itself the technology.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | hdjjhhvvhga wrote:
               | Moreover, even if Aegis fails to intercept it, the
               | manoeuvre to avoid the intercepting missiles in the
               | terminal phase at hypersonic speeds means a huge miss, at
               | least for conventional warheads.
        
               | greedo wrote:
               | I don't know of any missiles that have enough situational
               | awareness to attempt to actively avoid an interceptor.
               | They might dispense decoys (like the Iskander does), but
               | a hypersonic cruise missile won't have the appropriate
               | radar to detect an incoming interceptor. It might have an
               | ECM/ECCM package that can tell when it's being targeted
               | by a radar system, but that's about it.
        
               | rad88 wrote:
               | SSSHHHHHHHH we need more atom bombs! Raytheon has what we
               | need!
        
             | thereddaikon wrote:
             | The Russian "hypersonic" missile is just the upper stage of
             | a short ranged ballistic missile launched from an aircraft.
             | Its just an existing weapon with more steps.
             | 
             | The Chinese hypersonic weapons everyone is worried about is
             | a boost glide vehicle. Basically a ballistic missile with a
             | hypersonic lifting body as its warhead as opposed to a
             | blunt body RV you usually see. This makes it more
             | maneuverable and potentially harder to hit.
             | 
             | The weapon the air force tested today is similar to that
             | but meant to be launched from bombers instead of ground
             | launched.
             | 
             | The actual scary ones are hypersonic cruise missiles.
             | Nobody has fielded one operationally yet. But the US is by
             | far the furthest ahead in this technology. In march they
             | had a successful test of HAWC the Hypersonic Air-breathing
             | Weapon Concept. Scramjet powered cruise missiles like HAWC
             | are more dangerous than conventional ballistic missile or
             | boost-glide missiles because they actually fly. And
             | therefore can do the things normal cruise missiles like
             | Tomahawk can do. They can take circuitous routes. They can
             | change their altitude. They can fly somewhat evasively.
             | They can fly to an area and pick targets of opportunity.
             | And other things.
             | 
             | Why does it matter? We've gotten much better at shooting
             | down conventional cruise missiles. A few years back an
             | Arleigh Burke destroyer had a number of Chinese built
             | subsonic anti ship missiles fired at it by Houthi Rebels.
             | It shot down every single one of them. These missiles are
             | comparable to the Neptunes that recently sank Moskva in
             | terms of performance. So modern warships aren't as
             | vulnerable as Soviet era antiques. You need better weapons
             | to kill them. hypersonic cruise missiles are much harder to
             | intercept. Boost glides are of dubious utility in my
             | opinion.
        
               | sudosysgen wrote:
               | Russia also has an air-breathing hypersonic missile with
               | a scramjet engine - 3M22 Zircon. It is being field-tested
               | and is already starting production after more than a
               | dozen successful tests including hitting moving target -
               | making them much further in development than HAWC which
               | only recently managed to fly for any distance without
               | blowing up and never actually struck a target.
               | 
               | So your impression is not correct. The Russians and the
               | Chinese actually are much further along for all classes
               | of hypersonic missiles.
        
           | ramesh31 wrote:
           | >Alas, the media fell for it and billions are now being spent
           | on "catching up" with our "peer" competitors.
           | 
           | These things are no joke. I felt the same before actually
           | looking into it. China can effectively deny the South China
           | Sea to our carrier fleets with their land based hypersonic
           | weapons. There is absolutely no means of intercepting them
           | with current technology.
        
             | hungryforcodes wrote:
             | They have already denied the US the South China Sea -- just
             | by expanding their economy. The US is a joke here. China --
             | for example -- in the last 20 years has started more than
             | 400 companies in the Philipenes at least and where else?
             | Structural changes to the economy, basically. While Europe
             | and the US persist in this 1970s: "we will give the
             | primitives subsidies and cash prizes" -- demonstrating that
             | they are totally out of touch with the region. Colonialism
             | is over. These countries have money. China is actually
             | installing economic zones and other structures which give
             | them direct control over the region. Aircraft Carrier
             | Groups are no match for this.
             | 
             | I'm not saying I like or dislike it. But its incrediably
             | evident if you live in the region.
        
               | steve76 wrote:
        
             | bparsons wrote:
             | The Pentagon does this every decade. They constantly need
             | some sort of existential threat to respond to in order to
             | justify budget increases.
        
               | booi wrote:
               | What's the defense against a hypersonic missile then?
               | Current Aegis and CIWS defensive tech will not hit
               | something traveling that fast. Surely the Pentagon
               | doesn't even need to justify budget increases when we
               | give them more budget than they ask for every year
               | regardless.
        
               | moron4hire wrote:
               | They have to know what to hit and make sure the target
               | they are tracking is actually a real target.
        
               | robonerd wrote:
               | > _Current Aegis and CIWS defensive tech will not hit
               | something traveling that fast._
               | 
               | Aegis BDM is designed to hit hypersonic reentry vehicles.
               | CIWS is irrelevant, why even bring it up?
        
               | ramesh31 wrote:
               | >Aegis BDM is designed to hit hypersonic reentry vehicles
               | 
               |  _Ballistic_ hypersonic reentry vehicles. The entire
               | point is that these new weapons are maneuverable in the
               | atmosphere at mach 8+ all the way to the terminal phase.
        
               | robonerd wrote:
               | They don't maneuver for shit in the terminal phase.
               | Boost-glide weapons avoid mid-course interception by
               | staying _relatively_ low in the upper atmosphere rather
               | than following a high ballistic trajectory well into
               | space. Once they 're in the terminal phase their
               | maneuvering capability is comparable to older maneuvering
               | reentry vehicles (which are nothing new; the novel part
               | is skipping the ballistic mid-course phase.)
        
               | ARandomerDude wrote:
               | Consider the possibility that technology changes with
               | each decade and the previous system is...you know...now
               | obsolete.
               | 
               | I assume you have a smart phone and not an Amiga. By
               | analogy, if your enemy has "iPhone" level weapons, would
               | you want to face them with an "Amiga" level weapon? I
               | doubt it.
        
               | rad88 wrote:
               | I don't know whether MIRVs, each carrying a dozen or so
               | atom bombs, compare to HGVs like the Amiga does to the
               | iPhone. I'd like to say absolutely not but I can't.
               | Either way calling ballistic missiles "obsolete" is
               | incomprehensible to the dead.
        
           | RobRivera wrote:
           | the perfect cover for funneling money into Metal Gear
        
         | ritwikgupta wrote:
         | Hypersonics are already being used in warfare today [1][2][3].
         | They are already practical weapons and gaining parity in
         | offensive and defensive capabilities is critical.
         | 
         | [1] https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/22/europe/biden-russia-
         | hypersoni...
         | 
         | [2] https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/05/russia-has-
         | fired-...
         | 
         | [3] https://www.euronews.com/2022/05/10/russia-fires-
         | hypersonic-...
        
           | rad88 wrote:
           | > Russia is thought to have an HGV in its arsenal.
           | 
           | > ..
           | 
           | > But the Kinzhal, as a variant of the Iskander SRBM, is not
           | an HGV
        
       | staunch wrote:
       | My understanding is that Russia and China are building hypersonic
       | glide missile so they can penetrate any US missile defense
       | system, which the US doesn't really even have. And neither does
       | Russia or China have an effective missile defense system that the
       | US needs the capability to defeat.
       | 
       | So it seems like an arms race without either side really having
       | advanced to the point of necessitating a further step. Then
       | again, I suppose it makes sense to be one step ahead of where the
       | game is going.
       | 
       | Or is there something more to this?
        
         | HWR_14 wrote:
         | I imagine the use case is more conventional weapons, for
         | example taking out a navy flagship.
        
         | Buttons840 wrote:
         | Better we try to one up each other with fast cruise missiles
         | than with more nukes.
         | 
         | In fact, nukes are useless now, let's just get rid of all of
         | them. (wink wink)
        
           | coding123 wrote:
           | Nukes simply existing may have saved more lives at this
           | point. That could, of course, change in seconds at any time.
        
           | manachar wrote:
           | You joke about nukes, but since they're such an "unthinkable"
           | weapon they've become almost useless for most people who have
           | them. You need them so that others with fewer compunctions
           | are not able to steamroll you, but as an actual help to the
           | kinds of conflicts currently going on and likely to happen in
           | the future, they're just not as effective.
           | 
           | Whether that's fast cruise missiles, more powerful drones,
           | more disposable drones, robot warriors, cyber-warfare, etc.
           | militaries are trying to find the technology that breaks the
           | stalemate caused by MADD.
        
             | aidenn0 wrote:
             | Ask Putin about how useless having nukes is for preventing
             | NATO involvement in the Ukraine...
        
         | kcb wrote:
         | > US missile defense system, which the US doesn't really even
         | have
         | 
         | Uh..Missile defense is a massive part of US Navy doctrine and
         | is pretty much the primary purpose of every Destroyer, Cruiser,
         | and soon Frigate in the Navy at this point.
         | 
         | Without a doubt, the Aegis system and THAAD are the direct
         | reason for these developments from China and Russia.
        
           | gsibble wrote:
           | This. We have hundreds of Aegis boats sitting off our coasts
           | waiting for it to rain MIRVs.
        
             | robonerd wrote:
             | > _We have hundreds of Aegis boats_
             | 
             | 113, if you count Japan's, Korea's, and the rest of NATO
             | (with 137 more planned.) These are spread around the world,
             | and only some of them are Aegis BMD. And not all of those
             | will be ready when they're needed. A few dozen Aegis BMD
             | ships off the coast of the US seems plausible.
             | 
             | Besides Aegis, there is THAAD (which only protects a
             | handful of rather small areas) and GMD (which only has a
             | few dozen interceptors.) If China/Russia threw hundreds of
             | missiles at the continental US all at once, it's a good bet
             | that at least some would get through and wreck havoc.
        
           | staunch wrote:
           | Sure, but that doctrine is old. And has it not been partially
           | obsoleted by China's advances in missile technology?
           | 
           | My understanding was that our fleets have sufficient defense
           | for a limited attack but that a full scale missile attack by
           | China would quickly overwhelm them.
        
             | kcb wrote:
             | Aegis is continually evolving with new sensors, processing,
             | and missiles and far from obsolete. It's no coincidence
             | that China is building similar capabilities into its own
             | Destroyers.
             | 
             | I definitely would't call the scale of missile defense in
             | the fleet limited. Each carrier group would contain and be
             | screened by Destroyers and Cruisers with several hundred
             | interceptors ready to go between them.
        
       | greedo wrote:
       | Waiting for the F-35 haters to hijack this thread...
        
       | ortusdux wrote:
       | It was an AGM-183 ARRW. The test on the 14th hit Mach 5, but they
       | claim a theoretical top speed of Mach 20.
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-183_ARRW
        
         | rootusrootus wrote:
         | Reading through the timeline on that page, it sounds like
         | Congress has decided to kill the project. I wonder if this
         | successful test will turn that around.
        
           | riku_iki wrote:
           | It says they transferred half of funds from procurement to
           | R&D, probably because previous tests failures.
        
           | KennyBlanken wrote:
           | Biden's bumping up the military budget by tens of billions of
           | dollars, that's what's turning this around.
           | 
           | We finally got ourselves out of the Middle East, but we gotta
           | keep the military-industrial complex fed, I guess. We already
           | spend more total and per capita than the next top ten
           | countries combined.
           | 
           | It's so sad. We could do so much domestically, or just worked
           | on influencing foreign policy by helping other countries,
           | instead of military force projection.
        
           | ortusdux wrote:
           | From Lockheed's press release:
           | 
           |  _Additional booster and all-up-round test flights will
           | continue throughout 2022, before reaching Early Operational
           | Capability (EOC) in 2023._
           | 
           | So it sounds like they found the cash somewhere.
           | 
           | https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2022-05-17-us-air-force-
           | and-...
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | FredPret wrote:
         | Mach 20 is so fast. It's around the Earth at the equator
         | (ground level) in two hours.
        
           | HPsquared wrote:
           | Orbital speeds within the atmosphere, basically.
           | 
           | Edit: I suppose that means the vehicle wouldn't need any
           | aerodynamic lift when going at full speed; indeed, to
           | maintain altitude it'd need _negative_ lift.
        
             | SkyMarshal wrote:
             | _Barely_ within the atmosphere, I assume. Mach 20 at
             | commercial jet altitudes would probably melt the aircraft.
        
               | Victerius wrote:
               | Just build your aircraft out of titanium.
               | *cough*SR-71*cough*
        
               | SkyMarshal wrote:
               | I said Mach 20, not Mach 3.
        
               | FredPret wrote:
               | Wonder if this would be much of an issue for a missile.
               | It can melt away on the outside to a degree, as long as
               | the payload gets there intact. And it can get anywhere on
               | the planet in an hour, so perhaps a sacrificial shield
               | would work.
        
       | elEpHantiaSis wrote:
        
       | oneoff786 wrote:
       | I believe most explosives detonate in the air anymore.
       | 
       | Is there a speed threshold where the kinetic energy is enough to
       | justify not doing that?
        
         | hammock wrote:
         | Look up "rods from God."
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_bombardment
         | 
         | https://www.businessinsider.com/air-force-rods-from-god-
         | kine....
        
           | mywittyname wrote:
           | It always baffled me that these weren't named after Zeus.
        
         | djmips wrote:
         | I think there might be a grammar problem in your statement.
         | What did you mean?
        
           | Buttons840 wrote:
           | He means how fast does a missile need to go so that the
           | kinetic energy is greater than the chemical/explosive energy.
        
           | jstanley wrote:
           | It's relatively common to use "anymore" to mean "nowadays".
           | 
           | I think it must have come from hearing things like "They
           | don't do that any more" and not recognising "any" and "more"
           | as separate words, but rather as a concept that just means
           | "now", such that "They do that anymore" is equally valid.
        
             | djmips wrote:
             | Wow really? I missed out on that one. Thanks for the
             | update.
        
           | oneoff786 wrote:
           | https://ygdp.yale.edu/phenomena/positive-anymore
           | 
           | I picked it up from Pennsylvania unintentionally. Not a huge
           | fan of it tbh.
        
         | zmgsabst wrote:
         | Not really.
         | 
         | Even for hypersonics, the efficiency of chemicals at storing
         | energy and then releasing it is hard to beat. 1 kg of TNT
         | produces 4.2MJ; to get the same energy in 1kg of projectile
         | you'd need to travel at ~6500 miles per hour. (About mach 9 at
         | sea level.)
         | 
         | The role of hypersonics is in application:
         | 
         | - sudden attacks, to prevent response
         | 
         | - low altitude, high velocity attacks, to defeat intercept
         | 
         | - penetration, coupled with a chemical warhead, to hit hardened
         | targets
         | 
         | Source:
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orders_of_magnitude_(energy)
        
           | theptip wrote:
           | Appreciate the detail. I'm not sure I see the conclusion as
           | obvious though; if a 2kg weapon is going Mach 20 (as the
           | weapon in the OP apparently does), with 1kg of that being
           | TNT, then the explosives only provided 20% of the energy
           | (rounding to the nearest 10% to make the example clearer). If
           | you just lobbed the same 1kg weapon at Mach 20 then you'd
           | have halved the weight, and reduced the energy to 40%.
           | Presumably lower weight means easier to maneuver (more agile
           | for intercepting or avoiding countermeasures, depending on
           | what you're trying to hit).
           | 
           | It seems like around Mach 10-20 is where the tradeoff could
           | become non-obvious, depending on how much you value weighing
           | less?
        
             | zmgsabst wrote:
             | Per OP:
             | 
             | > The U.S. Air Force said on Monday it had conducted a
             | successful test of a hypersonic weapon, which flew at five
             | times the speed of sound.
             | 
             | But to your question:
             | 
             | > around Mach 10-20 is where the tradeoff could become non-
             | obvious, depending on how much you value weighing less?
             | 
             | The same logic holds at mach 5-8 (ie current hypersonics),
             | which is why they're being developed:
             | 
             | You want a weapon that can surprise, evade, or penetrate
             | better -- even if that's less destructive overall.
        
             | adrian_b wrote:
             | When close to the ground, something flying at Mach 10-20
             | would either be deccelerated very quickly to much lower
             | speeds, if flying passively, or require a very large mass
             | of fuel to maintain the speed.
             | 
             | Moreover, it would be hard to avoid being partially
             | vaporized before reaching the target. So hitting something
             | at Mach 10-20 seems much more difficult than filling the
             | missile with explosives and detonating it.
             | 
             | Weapons based on kinetic energy alone seem practical only
             | against satellites or against targets that fly in the upper
             | atmosphere.
        
         | aidenn0 wrote:
         | About mach 8, but then you need to actually hit your target.
         | 
         | For ground based targets that's probably fine (in fact for
         | slow-moving, armored targets kinetic-energy penetrators are
         | already a thing). For anti-aircraft fire the goal is to get
         | "close enough" that the explosives will damage it.
        
         | michael1999 wrote:
         | Many anti-air missiles detonate at range and destroy with
         | shrapnel. And shrapnel damage is just kinetic. But that's
         | probably not what you mean.
         | 
         | Yes. For lightly armoured targets, their own velocity might do
         | it. See
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brilliant_Pebbles#Brilliant_Pe...
         | 
         | And if you want to go further, de-orbiting tungsten rods make
         | the explosives redundant.
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_bombardment
        
           | robonerd wrote:
           | > _de-orbiting tungsten rods_
           | 
           | Over-hyped I think. Sure the kinetic energy is incredible,
           | but what of the terminal ballistics? I think these would have
           | substantial over-penetration against anything except deep
           | bunkers; most of that kinetic energy would be spent driving
           | that rod through bedrock, like an APFSDS dart shot into tank
           | armor. Good for punching holes in things.
        
             | michael1999 wrote:
             | Completely agree. Those systems solve a bunch of non-
             | problems and completely destabilize MAD. There's a reason
             | they were never developed.
             | 
             | But I wouldn't discount to the ability of weapons designers
             | to figure out the frangibility and deliver the bulk of the
             | energy to a tuneable depth.
        
       | sandworm101 wrote:
       | >> "Following separation from the aircraft, the ARRW's booster
       | ignited and burned for expected duration, achieving hypersonic
       | speeds five times greater than the speed of sound," it said.
       | 
       | Big deal. The booster is just a rocket. And Mach numbers are
       | meaningless without altitude reference. Anything that travels to
       | the outer atmosphere/space will hit extreme Mach numbers on the
       | way up/down. So without any further data the above statement
       | means little more than "we fired a big rocket". Did the
       | sustainment motor, the air-breathing thing that differentiates a
       | true hypersonic from every other rocket, did that motor function
       | in cruise mode? Or is this essentially just a boost-glide
       | ballistic missile?
        
         | nilstycho wrote:
         | The ARRW boost-glide vehicle is unpowered, but maneuverable.
         | This test used a dummy boost-glide vehicle, though. They
         | haven't disclosed if releasing the dummy vehicle was part of
         | this test, and if so whether it succeeded. This test was just
         | testing the boost phase.
         | 
         | edit: From the Lockheed Martin press release
         | (https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2022-05-17-us-air-force-
         | and-...):
         | 
         | > The successful flight demonstrates the weapon's ability to
         | reach and withstand operational hypersonic speeds, collect
         | crucial data for use in further flight tests, and validate safe
         | separation from the aircraft to deliver the glide body and
         | warhead to designated targets from significant standoff
         | distances. ... Additional booster and all-up-round test flights
         | will continue throughout 2022, before reaching Early
         | Operational Capability (EOC) in 2023.
        
       | nathanyz wrote:
       | Probably just us flexing that we have them too. Likely have had
       | them, but kept it quiet as no need to declare our capabilities.
       | Since others are crowing about it, just letting them know we also
       | have same.
        
         | jaywalk wrote:
         | Absolutely. I also don't believe that they "only" go 5x the
         | speed of sound. That's most likely just the speed they're
         | willing to disclose, and the actual speed is classified.
        
           | Zandikar wrote:
           | I mean, our X-15 was a manned hypersonic aircraft (by a good
           | margin of the minimum 5x speed) in the 1960's, and ICBM's
           | have been guided unmanned long range hypersonic munitions
           | since a similar era, just to name a few. We have plenty of
           | experience with hypersonics, and we almost certainly have
           | continued research and experimentation into the field.
           | 
           | The real technological linchpin isn't so much the speed, but
           | would be things like guidance, precision and manuevering at
           | those speeds, or perhaps other things like stealth, heat
           | management materials (lot of friction from the air when
           | you're ripping through it at those speeds), transatmospheric
           | flight, advancements in hybrid (sc)ramjet engines, etc.
           | 
           | Going hypersonic in and of itself is nothing new. We've been
           | doing that since the 60's. Shit we made a manhole cover go
           | hypersonic before the Russian's ever launched sputnik. It's
           | what something can do after its moving at hypersonic speed
           | that's of real consequence.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | nipponese wrote:
         | Yes, but only because our Congress is trying to make political
         | theater of the topic.
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qz_2r6rWgY8
        
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