[HN Gopher] On the Duopoly of Mobile
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       On the Duopoly of Mobile
        
       Author : zdw
       Score  : 56 points
       Date   : 2022-05-02 15:17 UTC (3 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (deprogrammaticaipsum.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (deprogrammaticaipsum.com)
        
       | MBCook wrote:
       | Is it really a surprise we ended up with a duopoly?
       | 
       | Apple was the first modern smartphone with the iPhone and quickly
       | got apps. That caused massive growth.
       | 
       | Google was right there too, also had apps on a modern platform.
       | They saw what people wanted.
       | 
       | Everyone else was late to the party with their modern OSes. MS,
       | Palm, BB.
       | 
       | By the time they arrived Android and iOS already had a big lead.
       | It's hard to get a company to develop their apps for your 3rd+
       | place platform with almost no market share. So you have no apps.
       | So things get worse.
       | 
       | It was basically first mover advantage. Palm might have been OK
       | but they were screwed over by Verizon. MS may have survived in
       | 3rd but they kept rebooting their platform and breaking
       | compatibility.
       | 
       | Now the duopoly is too strong for anyone to break into without
       | pouring insane amounts of cash in that will likely never return a
       | profit.
       | 
       | Until there is another big shift, I don't see things changing.
       | The current game is over, Google and Apple are too far ahead at
       | it.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | > Is it really a surprise we ended up with a duopoly?
         | 
         | I have the strange feeling that the reason we have a duopoly is
         | that companies can't get away with being a monopoly.
        
         | eptcyka wrote:
         | I have to argue that the original iPhone, as it was released,
         | had no apps, the camera was not good and iOS had a laughable
         | feature set. It quickly evolved to be much better than it's
         | initial version, but I remember being rather upset that I had
         | wait until iOS 3 or iOS 4 to get copy and paste support - a
         | feature which I had on my Symbian phone for literal years. And
         | my Symbian phone had multitasking for ages too. And it could
         | film video. The iPhone had a handful of impressive features,
         | but it was not all too useful for the first few iterations,
         | aside from Safari - that was a game changer. Other
         | manufacturers weren't late to the party, they had already gone
         | home well drunk by the time Apple arrived. Their offerings
         | hadn't advanced much for years, and it took years for
         | incumbents to realize they need to catch up - get their OSes to
         | be modernized, create platforms and embrace capacitative touch
         | screens. All this to say, initially Apple had great marketing
         | and a great vision and a lukewarm experience delivered in a
         | shiny package, at least that's how I experienced it.
        
           | MBCook wrote:
           | That's sort of what I was trying to get out with "modern".
           | Mostly the interface, but also OS guts. Palm was still
           | creaking along on a very old OS stretched far beyond its
           | design (for example).
           | 
           | I had an iPhone 3G running on iOS 2.0. Yes, it was missing
           | things. But if you were coming from a non-smart phone you
           | didn't notice. And that's where TONS of people came from.
        
         | ineedasername wrote:
         | MS had a halfway decent mobile _OS_ , but pretty much stopped
         | there leaving a barren software ecosystem.
         | 
         | I had an HP ipaq w/ windows before the iPhone and as an OS it
         | was okay. I could do basic web browsing, email worked fine, RSS
         | reader. I could even tether it to my laptop for reasonable
         | pageload speeds online, I think around 1 Mbit. (Yeah, this was
         | before the days of >3 MByte dumps on every page.)
         | 
         | But that was about all, and the mobile web was mostly non
         | existent at the time. iPhones had the same problem to a lesser
         | extent, but IIRC safari was smart enough to mostly make text
         | readable. It was only after a few years that "mobile first"
         | became the dominant mantra for sites.
         | 
         | As far as consumer appeal the ipaq was also crap on product
         | design: it screamed business user, and I felt awkward taking it
         | out in public and holding it up to my head. Whereas the
         | original iPhone was sleek and instantly cool & fashionable, and
         | not as clunky & big, it fit in the hand very well.
         | 
         | So MS had a passable mobile OS, they just failed in practically
         | every other way, and their manufacturing partners never seemed
         | to understand that a smartphone could break out of the
         | enterprise mold.
        
         | e40 wrote:
         | Before the iPhone I had a very nice phone with apps and a
         | keyboard. It was a PalmOS device called the Treo650. Loved it
         | until the company died and I went to an OG Droid.
        
       | amelius wrote:
       | Is it really a duopoly, considering that for Google the real
       | users are advertisers not smartphone owners?
        
       | phendrenad2 wrote:
       | Why do we have a duopoly? You can draw a direct logical line to
       | the complexity of shipping apps through an app store. Right now,
       | an app, say, Spotify, has to create two versions of their app
       | (iOS and Android), and package them for the Apple App Store and
       | Google Play Store.
       | 
       | (Buuut that's not even the whole truth. Mobile OS updates
       | frequently break backward compatibility, so iOS and Android apps
       | need to gracefully handle backward and forward compatibility,
       | often special-casing different OS versions or screen
       | resolutions).
       | 
       | Anyway, if, say, Amazon resuscitated their Fire Phone, which
       | would use the Amazon App Store, then Spotify would have to
       | package their app for the Amazon store... which costs developer
       | (or at least a release coordinator) time. That's a barrier to
       | entry that doesn't exist in the PC ecosystem.
        
         | igorstellar wrote:
         | > That's a barrier to entry that doesn't exist in the PC
         | ecosystem.
         | 
         | Unless you're using some native language like C++ and cross-
         | platform UI framework like QT or js/Electron you have even
         | bigger diversity problem in the PC ecosystem. There are Windows
         | (x86/arm), macOS (x86/arm), linux (variable desktop
         | environments), Chrome OS, ...
         | 
         | You would need to provide builds for all the OS and hopefully
         | also provide Store versions (Windows Store, AppStore, Snap)
        
       | ramesh31 wrote:
       | Imagine a world where Ballmer wasn't blinded by the desktop and
       | enterprise market during the 2000s, and Windows Phone actually
       | became a thing, and we had true competition among flagship phones
       | today. Imagine a Surface Pro phone with modern specs that could
       | sideload any x86 application. One can dream.
        
         | loudmax wrote:
         | While we're at it, let's imagine a world where BeOS succeeded
         | on the desktop. People without the technical inclination to run
         | open source would have a choice of multiple competing
         | commercial desktop environments rather than the current
         | duopoly.
        
         | jayd16 wrote:
         | Why would it be x86? The OS isn't the holdout there. Android
         | even supports x86.
        
         | somethoughts wrote:
         | Alternatively its interesting to imagine if instead of buying
         | Nokia, Ballmer had instead doubled down more fully on cloud and
         | bought servers to subsidize the transition to the cloud in
         | order to compete with Amazon AWS. Azure wouldn't be playing
         | catch up now.
         | 
         | It'd be challenging to try to sell handset manufacturers a
         | WinMo license to compete with Apple (who makes money from HW
         | and only more recently apps/subscription services) when Google
         | was giving Android away for free to the same handset
         | manufacturers. Even historically low margin Amazon gave up on
         | the Fire phone.
         | 
         | Additionally smartphones are a very visible consumer facing
         | product and thus very visible from an anti-trust populism
         | perspective. [1] Imagine Steve Ballmer testifying in congress
         | like Zuckerberg, Cook, Dorsey, etc. - he would totally have
         | bungled it.
         | 
         | That said for consumers (rather than MSFT shareholders) a
         | triopoly is for sure better than a duopoly.
         | 
         | [1] Bill Gates thinks Windows Mobile would have beaten Android
         | without Microsoft's antitrust woes
         | https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/6/20952370/bill-gates-windo...
        
           | mr_toad wrote:
           | > bought servers to subsidize the transition to the cloud in
           | order to compete with Amazon AWS
           | 
           | Microsoft's (enterprise) customers weren't ready for the
           | cloud back then. They could have made a bid for the rest of
           | the market, but I'm not sure the rest of the market wanted
           | Microsoft.
        
           | Apocryphon wrote:
           | It would've been nice if Nokia had made another MeeGo
           | smartphone after the N9 with the same sort of quality and
           | usability.
        
         | danuker wrote:
         | > that could sideload any x86 application
         | 
         | Too bad even desktop Windows is pushing for an App Store,
         | gradually taking control away.
         | 
         | I see where this is going. One reason I'd use Windows anymore
         | is if I needed a dedicated GPU _now_ with Windows-only drivers,
         | for its computing efficiency.
         | 
         | I wouldn't count on it being available long-term, as
         | proprietary software eventually loses support and compatibility
         | with the rest of the world.
         | 
         | However, I don't need such special hardware, and I am perfectly
         | happy with an integrated GPU. The heaviest video or massively-
         | parallel tasks that I perform do not warrant a dedicated one,
         | and I run them on my CPU.
         | 
         | The other reason I'd use Windows is if a customer required me
         | to do so (and of course I'd charge for it).
        
         | enos_feedler wrote:
         | I think about this all the damn time. Imagine how much higher
         | quality and stable the software stack would be if Microsoft
         | took all of their lessons working with OEMs, chipset makers
         | (GPUs, etc) for Windows and applied that to mobile. Instead we
         | got an unengineered hot garbage driver interface that broke
         | compatibility with every major android release. Absolute zero
         | continuity across any low level APIs. Camera HAL, HAL 2, HAL 3!
         | Isn't the point of an abstraction layer to generalize
         | functionality enough that you can grow into future devices and
         | feature sets without a complete redesign of the interfaces?
         | Google has zero vision of where mobile hardware was headed.
         | Android design was built on Google promo culture not product
         | design
        
         | SemanticStrengh wrote:
         | Microsoft could still make an Android fork the same way they
         | rebased Edge on chromium. Since android is mediocre on many
         | aspects (e.g. no modern and performant Java support) they could
         | differentiate and create a market opportunity. Their name is
         | big enough to create a store. They already have a linux distro
         | BTW https://github.com/microsoft/CBL-Mariner
        
           | KoftaBob wrote:
           | Between their introduction of Surface phones like the Duo,
           | and their Microsoft Launcher, it seems like they're aiming
           | for that down the road.
        
           | WorldMaker wrote:
           | What would be the point of Microsoft failing with Android in
           | the same ways that Amazon and Samsung _have already failed_
           | here?
           | 
           | (Admittedly, I still don't se a lot of the point in Microsoft
           | running Chromium Edge other than sadness and defeat. I use
           | Chromium Edge on my work machine because they block Firefox
           | and I dislike Chrome and Chromium Edge is such a sad shell of
           | what Edge once was.)
        
           | ramesh31 wrote:
           | >Microsoft could still make an Android fork the same way they
           | rebased Edge on chromium. Since android is mediocre on many
           | aspects (e.g. no modern and performant Java support) they
           | could differentiate and create a market opportunity. Their
           | name is big enough to create a store. They already have a
           | linux distro BTW https://github.com/microsoft/CBL-Mariner
           | 
           | I think this is what never made sense to me about the failure
           | of Windows Phone. They have a store. They have an operating
           | system. They have an unbelievably extensive list of hardware
           | partners with decades of manufacturing experience. They have
           | some of the best engineers in the world. And yet, they ceded
           | the single largest consumer industry to Google and Apple. The
           | only explanation is poor leadership.
        
             | WorldMaker wrote:
             | I still think the largest balkanization factor in the
             | current duopoly was the cellphone carriers. They have to
             | support the phones they sell. They want as few variables in
             | their support matrix. QED: three options is too many.
             | 
             | Windows Phone had several major opportunity positions where
             | they had all the software the needed and all the hardware
             | they needed to make a statement and then: cellphone
             | carriers simply refused to sell SIM cards to them.
             | 
             | For pretty much the entire lifespan of Windows Phone it
             | generally only had one of two major US carriers reluctantly
             | shipping its flagship and the other supposedly "angry" at
             | Microsoft and refusing to even allow it SIM cards on its
             | network, with flip flopping which one was which between
             | different "flagship" phones.
             | 
             | How does _any_ product survive in an ecosystem that harsh?
        
             | Mountain_Skies wrote:
             | Windows Phone came out at a time when smartphones were
             | still lifestyle products. Apple was the king of the hill in
             | that respect and Google was still perceived as a pretty
             | cool company even if having an Android phone wasn't as
             | showy as having an iPhone. Having a phone from Microsoft
             | meant you were probably a corporate weenie who wore pleated
             | khakis and spent their day in a cubicle. The quality of the
             | phone and the OS didn't really play into the perception of
             | it.
             | 
             | It's interesting that the perception wasn't the same in
             | other parts of the world. Windows Phone seemed to be a
             | premium product in Argentina. Think it had good acceptance
             | in parts of Europe too, likely due to the Nokia versions.
             | Perhaps trying to conquer the world except North America
             | could have been a viable strategy but that's hard to really
             | know and given the influence of the North American market
             | on global culture, it might not have worked.
        
             | zamadatix wrote:
             | Windows phone had to introduce a store, operating system,
             | and new hardware partners. The store was launched in tandem
             | with Windows Phone and not added to the Desktop version
             | until 2 years later. The OS and existing software base they
             | had was irrelevant for small touch screens. The hardware
             | partners they had weren't relevant to the mobile space and
             | they weren't doing enough hardware development themselves
             | to just rely on the in-staff hardware folks they had.
             | 
             | Eventually they tried all these things but too late. They
             | tried rebuilding the OS to be for more than just desktops,
             | they tried rebuilding app platforms to not be platform
             | specific, they tried rebuilding the interface to not be use
             | type specific. It lead to a lot of angst due to the churn
             | and a failure in the mobile space as their competitors
             | already had working alternatives to all of these before
             | they even launched.
             | 
             | Poor leadership for sure but in waiting through all the
             | 2000s and letting other's fill the space not because they
             | already had everything made for them and let it fall apart.
             | 
             | Xbox is one area that has seemed to really pan out for them
             | which got all of these changes over time but again they
             | launched that in the early 2000s not the early 2010s.
        
         | guessbest wrote:
         | Windows Mobile was a thing and sideloading was the standard
         | method of installing applications. WinCE also had handwriting
         | recognition built in to every device running locally on a
         | 200MHz arm processor with 16 Meg of RAM. Programming was
         | possible on WinCE 6 using .NET 2 or 3.5 as well as C++. It was
         | very performant on a device with 64 Megs of RAM. I guess the
         | problem was that versions after WinCE 7 binaries were not
         | compatible with the previous versions as well as Microsoft
         | working solely through OEM's for releases rather than direct to
         | consumer like Apple or Google's partnerships. There were lots
         | of also rans in the industry such as Palm OS Cobalt (6.0) not
         | being used by anyone and the Amazon Fire.
         | 
         | Article from 2007 :
         | 
         | > Of course, the discussion included the upcoming Apple iPhone
         | and Mr. Ballmer had a few funny things to say about the device.
         | 
         | >> It's sort of a funny question. Would I trade 96% of the
         | market for 4% of the market? (Laughter.) I want to have
         | products that appeal to everybody. Now we'll get a chance to go
         | through this again in phones and music players. There's no
         | chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market
         | share. No chance. It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a
         | lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3
         | billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software
         | in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%,
         | which is what Apple might get.
         | 
         | https://www.zdnet.com/article/steve-ballmerwindows-mobile-60...
        
           | ansible wrote:
           | What Ballmer and others missed (or blithely ignored) was the
           | user experience with the iPhone vs other devices back in
           | 2007.
           | 
           | I had used various PDAs and mobile phones that had Internet
           | access (of a sort) back then. Generally speaking, they had
           | very tiny screens, a poor or nonexistent touchscreen, grossly
           | underpowered processors with insufficient RAM, a cut-down
           | network stack, and a crappy "browser". The best pre-iPhone
           | experience (that I experienced) was the Moto Q, running
           | Windows CE, which actually had WiFi and a almost tolerable
           | text browser.
           | 
           | I won't even talk about WAP and WML and how well all that
           | worked.
           | 
           | Compare that to the debut iPhone. Much larger capacitive
           | touchscreen, smooth scrolling, pinch zoom / expand and more.
           | You went to regular desktop websites, and they _just worked_.
           | Then you see all the effort put into the UI for the address
           | book and other apps, and that all adds up to a user
           | experience quite unlike anything else at the time.
           | Revolutionary. A better experience than even the Windows CE
           | handheld PDAs.
        
             | dwighttk wrote:
             | >You went to regular desktop websites, and they just
             | worked.
             | 
             | Yeah I kinda wish fewer sites gave me the mobile version. I
             | really hate the sites that give me the mobile version after
             | I request the desktop version.
        
             | guessbest wrote:
             | You are 100% correct.
             | 
             | They probably all missed this because the executive class
             | all used Blackberry's (Google executives and Microsoft
             | executives) which is another "also ran" in the business. I
             | agree with your point about mobile browsers. No one ever
             | putting much of any effort into supporting fast rendering
             | of html or javascript much less AJAX in the web browser
             | applications and feature phones all used something other
             | than HTML like WAP. The best a user could hope for was a
             | phone with a fast web proxy that performed the rendering
             | like Opera Mini.
             | 
             | > Opera Software pioneered with its Small Screen Rendering
             | (SSR) and Medium Screen Rendering (MSR) technology. The
             | Opera web browser is able to reformat regular web pages for
             | optimal fit on small screens and medium-sized (PDA)
             | screens. It was also the first widely available mobile
             | browser to support Ajax and the first mobile browser to
             | pass ACID2 test.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobile_browser
             | 
             | Web hosting providers and content creators didn't put much
             | effort in to creating an alternate internet using WAP and
             | WML. It just never materialized as viable.
        
         | mrkramer wrote:
         | If that happened Android wouldn't exist but funny enough I
         | trust Google more than Microsoft because Google at least
         | pretends it cares with its once famous motto "Don't be evil".
        
       | SemanticStrengh wrote:
       | I find it weird how perfectly stable the marketshare is
       | https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/mobile/worldwide What
       | are the odds.. Edit: actually Apple has gained marketshare in the
       | last few years up to 29% then fallen to 27% and since stagnate to
       | it. Despite being much much more APKs than Ipas (and the gradient
       | likely increasing (any data ?), this doesn't seems to affect much
       | markestshare. What the IOS market needs to fall is to miss some
       | killer apps.
        
         | ramesh31 wrote:
         | >Despite being much much more APKs than Ipas (and the gradient
         | likely increasing (any data ?), this doesn't seems to affect
         | much markestshare. What the IOS market needs to fall is to miss
         | some killer apps.
         | 
         | Market share doesn't tell the true story. It's all about
         | revenue. Apple generates nearly twice the profits of Google
         | from one third the number of devices.
         | 
         | https://appleinsider.com/articles/21/01/05/app-store-earns-7...
        
           | SemanticStrengh wrote:
           | While a commonly repeated trope, I disagree with it: Play
           | stores apps must pay a 30% comission rate the first year then
           | it drops to 15%. Most of user acquisition of successful apps
           | are made after the first year of existsence. Therefore, the
           | vast majority of Android apps revenue are made with a 15%
           | commission rate vs Apple constant 30% milking. So one could
           | ~say for an equal revenue, Apple will take the double, and
           | since they have ~25% marketshare, then I see no signal of
           | apple users spending more than Android users, however the
           | milking is hard.
           | 
           | Android announced this year that from now one, the comission
           | rate will be 15% even the first year. And 15% is still
           | indecent, people must be really perturbed in modern society
           | to find such power abuse acceptable.
        
             | ramesh31 wrote:
             | >So one could ~say for an equal revenue, Apple will take
             | the double, and since they have ~25% marketshare, then I
             | see no signal of apple users spending significantly more
             | than Android users, however the milking is hard.
             | 
             | Blood from a stone and all that. You can only milk people
             | for what they've got, and you can bet that Google's 15%
             | number is not coming out of the kindness of their hearts.
             | It's a competitive tactic to lure app developers away from
             | what they know is a more lucrative platform. Point being
             | that Apple users are, on average, much wealthier and more
             | willing to spend money in an app store, and thus much more
             | profitable per MAU.
        
               | SemanticStrengh wrote:
               | > Point being that Apple users are, on average, much
               | wealthier and more willing to spend money in an app
               | store, and thus much more profitable per MAU.
               | 
               | No the only maximally pro-thesis consequence you could
               | speculate from data is that Apple users have on average,
               | maximally 15% more money willing to spend. Of course in
               | many cases the fact they pay 50% more to apple (global
               | 15%) does not imply that this excess money would be spent
               | in additional app purchases, only a subset would and
               | spending often have diminishing returns. I would say that
               | the average apple user has 5-8% more money to spend, and
               | as said, in the ridiculously pro-thesis case, 15%.
               | Therefore the effect you're trying to show is in fact
               | very small.
        
               | kitsunesoba wrote:
               | Another effect that may be playing into all of this is
               | that Android has a larger share of users who want a phone
               | but not necessarily a smartphone. This demographic is
               | less likely to buy an iPhone and more likely to opt for
               | the cheapest thing on the shelf, which is almost
               | invariably going to be running Android. These users
               | basically do not exist as far as app revenue is
               | concerned.
               | 
               | I don't have links but I've seen reports that on average,
               | iOS users make considerably more heavy use the "smart"
               | features of their phones (and thus, buy and use more
               | apps), which lines up with this. While there are "power
               | users" who make heavy use of Android's more technical
               | features and deep customization, they probably aren't a
               | large enough group to make up the difference.
        
               | a4isms wrote:
               | > Apple users are, on average, much wealthier...
               | 
               | That someone willing to pay for a premium product is
               | likely to be wealthy is a reasonable conjecture for items
               | where the item is so expensive that a typical middle-
               | class customer is making a substantial sacrifice to
               | purchase, if they can do so at all.
               | 
               | So for architect-designed homes, small-volume luxury
               | cars, cigarette boats, personal jets... Absolutely.
               | Middle-class people can and do buy small-volume luxury
               | cars, but it's a big compromise and most of the people
               | driving Bentleys are actually wealthy.
               | 
               | iPhones are not that kind of luxury item, they're what we
               | might call "affordable luxuries." Even the most tricked-
               | out iPhone is within reach of your typical 9-5 full-time
               | employee if they want one.
               | 
               | Other "affordable luxuries" include things like premium
               | alcoholic drinks, expensive basketball shoes, carbon
               | bicycles, and Fashion brands such as Polo Ralph Lauren
               | that specialize in pretending to be exclusive but
               | distributing their wares in department stores.
               | 
               | Owning an affordable luxury in no way suggests you're
               | significantly wealthier than people who buy an affordable
               | substitute for the same product. It's more about
               | signalling taste than means.
        
           | endisneigh wrote:
           | Makes sense - in my experience people with iPhones are more
           | willing to pay for things.
        
             | prox wrote:
             | In my experience the apps are more often worth paying for.
             | Probably a viscous circle. Android always feels like a
             | garbage bin I have to scrounge through to find some gems
             | imo.
        
               | kitsunesoba wrote:
               | And this effect is even more profound when looking for
               | tablet optimized apps, which are far and few between on
               | the Play store. There's a few decent ones on F-Droid but
               | iPadOS has the quality tablet app market solidly
               | cornered.
        
             | mojzu wrote:
             | I'm a recent-ish convert and found this to be true, there's
             | definitely plenty of rubbish on the app store similar to
             | the play store and trying to avoid subscription services
             | where it shouldn't be necessary can be frustrating (I'm not
             | paying a monthly fee for a calculator). But so far I've
             | generally been able to find high quality apps that are pay
             | once/sync via icloud/support sign in with apple that means
             | I've spent more money on apps in a couple of years then I
             | did in the previous 10+ with Android
        
               | enos_feedler wrote:
               | What are the top things you want in a calculator that
               | aren't included in the default one?
        
         | ink_13 wrote:
         | If you increase the timescale, those numbers actually show that
         | iOS has increased its market share by 10% since late 2018,
         | which is also interesting.
        
           | fckgw wrote:
           | Not too long after the introduction of the iPhone SE and
           | Apple keeping older models in their lineup to act as cheaper
           | options to their yearly flagship phone. I'm sure a $399 SE
           | has taken a chunk of Android's market share.
        
             | brewdad wrote:
             | I made the switch to Apple a year ago. I was tired of
             | losing support 12-18 months after purchase and having my
             | phones be practically unusable after 2 years. I have no
             | interest in messing about with 3rd party OSes, I just want
             | a phone that works. So far, I don't regret the change.
             | Check back in a year to see if my battery still holds an
             | all day charge.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | iskander wrote:
         | Since 2009: https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-
         | share/mobile/worldwide/...
        
         | KoftaBob wrote:
         | Adding onto that, it's super interesting that the 2011-2012
         | time period seems to have coincided with the most balanced
         | market shares for both mobile OS and browsers:
         | https://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share#monthly-2009...
        
       | didibus wrote:
       | I find the desktop duopoly even more annoying.
        
         | TulliusCicero wrote:
         | It's more like a triopoly, isn't it? Linux is a reasonable
         | choice for a consumer OS on laptops/desktops, at least for
         | techies. Much more so than non-Android/iOS options on mobile.
         | 
         | Especially with the work Valve has done to make Linux gaming
         | more easily accessible, even releasing a Linux-based handheld
         | console.
        
           | ajvs wrote:
           | Even non-techies really, as long as you have someone to do
           | that first install since there's very few companies that
           | offer Linux as the default OS for their hardware.
        
             | TulliusCicero wrote:
             | Eh, there's definitely issues where you do a search to see
             | how to change/fix something and the most prominent results
             | tell you to delve into the command line. As long as that's
             | true, it's harder to recommend to non-techies imo.
        
         | linguae wrote:
         | I disagree; I find it harder to migrate away from the
         | iOS/Android duopoly than it is to migrate from the
         | macOS/Windows duopoly. Because so much of modern desktop
         | computing has migrated to the Web, I can use any operating
         | system that supports a modern Web browser. LibreOffice has
         | pretty good compatibility with Microsoft Office file formats
         | for my needs at home; the only time I need Microsoft Office is
         | at work, where I have access to Windows and macOS anyway. I
         | could migrate to Linux or one of the BSDs full time at home if
         | I wanted to (I currently use both FreeBSD and Windows 10), and
         | the only thing I'd lose would be access to some DRM-protected
         | media from iTunes I purchased years ago.
         | 
         | However, if I were to give up my iPhone for a phone running
         | GNU/Linux rather than Android, I'd have to give up many apps
         | that I depend on, some of them with no Web versions. The
         | smartphone situation today feels like how the Linux desktop was
         | in the late 1990s/early 2000s.
        
           | wardedVibe wrote:
           | Even migrating to variants of android other than the vendor
           | installed one is a major pita, that is only possible for an
           | increasingly small subset of phones.
        
       | pphysch wrote:
       | In theory, the duopoly would be broken by manufacturers from
       | other countries, but those products would just get banned in
       | America.
        
         | wombat-man wrote:
         | Why do you think this?
        
           | wyre wrote:
           | Because Hauwei is a competitor from another country but is
           | banned in America
        
             | TulliusCicero wrote:
             | There's plenty of foreign phone manufacturers that sell in
             | America. The idea that the US would ban them solely for
             | being foreign is absurd.
        
         | gilrain wrote:
         | You can right now buy handsets made even by the US's primary
         | competitor, China. Go nuts, have a blast.
         | 
         | https://www.amazon.com/s?k=Huawei+phone
        
           | [deleted]
        
       | Syonyk wrote:
       | > _Convergence was, if you go back and re-watch that video from
       | the iPhone launch linked above, the big selling point of the
       | iPhone. It is a media player, an internet browser, and a mobile
       | phone all in one. And these days, it is a camera, a satellite
       | navigation system, and a payment card too. So it is not enough to
       | make a good phone, you have to make a good all-of-those-things._
       | 
       | Or people have to be willing to go back to "Not all of this in
       | one thing."
       | 
       | And there are some nice benefits there. "Separate things" don't
       | tend to data mine in the way that modern smartphones do, and I'm
       | not too concerned about my not-at-all-networked camera submitting
       | stuff upstream without me realizing it. I don't mind having music
       | separate again, and I've been re-acquainting myself with internal
       | navigational skills using paper maps and written directions to
       | get around.
       | 
       | It was nice when "all the things" were on a single device, and
       | I've done that, but as I'm more and more opposed to "turning
       | everything I do into extracted behavioral surplus," going back to
       | separate things makes sense - and, realistically, it doesn't suck
       | nearly as much as I expected it to.
       | 
       | I now carry a phone that does calling and texting and... if I'm
       | in the mood for pain, some bluetooth audio to speakers. It'll do
       | calling via BT to the car if I bother to turn it on, and that's
       | about as fancy as I normally get. Though anymore, I'm as likely
       | to forget the phone as not when I go places.
       | 
       | Photos are done with a pocket camera now, going back to that
       | which I did for years. I take fewer photos, but it's fine, and it
       | also means that working on projects I'm documenting, I don't have
       | the distraction of the phone there. I have a camera, and it takes
       | pictures.
       | 
       | It's a different approach to life, more of a return to a
       | 90s/early 2000s approach, but I've been quite happy with it, and
       | find it a welcome change from "Everything in one device."
        
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