[HN Gopher] Backblaze Drive Stats for Q1 2022
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       Backblaze Drive Stats for Q1 2022
        
       Author : caution
       Score  : 154 points
       Date   : 2022-05-04 15:29 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.backblaze.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.backblaze.com)
        
       | ww520 wrote:
       | Is there a failure list for write heavy drives? The drives for my
       | security system have failed twice already. They are NAS grades
       | from Seagate and WD.
        
         | brianwski wrote:
         | Disclaimer: I work at Backblaze but more on the backup client
         | side that runs on laptops, not in the datacenter storage side.
         | 
         | > Is there a failure list for write heavy drives?
         | 
         | To be clear about what these drive failure stats are and what
         | they are not: Backblaze runs a data storage service with about
         | 214,000 hard drives in it right now. We don't run any specific
         | tests or induce issues on purpose FOR the drive failure stats,
         | we just report what occurred in our datacenter.
         | 
         | Sometimes readers think we're carefully running a "study", but
         | it's more just what we have experienced as honestly as we can
         | offer it up. If the reads and writes and seeks our drives
         | experience matches your particular application, great! Or maybe
         | it is just interesting to read.
         | 
         | Now, we do save (and publish) all the raw data, and some other
         | awesome people out there have done various analysis on it,
         | which always makes us happy also. You can find the raw data
         | here: https://www.backblaze.com/b2/hard-drive-test-data.html At
         | this point it goes back almost a full decade.
        
           | isomorphic wrote:
           | It looks like the data does contain SMART 241, total LBAs
           | written, for at least some drives.
           | 
           | Someone with some time could correlate that to failure rate.
           | My hypothesis is _of course_ it 's correlated--but by how
           | much?
        
             | brianwski wrote:
             | > Someone with some time could correlate SMART data to
             | failure rate.
             | 
             | We looked into it a little, some notes written up here:
             | https://www.backblaze.com/blog/what-smart-stats-indicate-
             | har...
             | 
             | Short summary is there are a few SMART stats that seem to
             | predict failure way more than others, which is probably
             | obvious. But we aren't PhDs in statistics and it isn't our
             | area of focus, so....
             | 
             | This guy wrote a paper based on the Backblaze SMART data: h
             | ttps://etd.ohiolink.edu/apexprod/rws_etd/send_file/send?acc
             | ...
             | 
             | These 5 guys wrote another paper based on the Backblaze
             | SMART data to train up a Bayesian network to predict
             | failures: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8489097
             | 
             | This is another article of predicting hard drive failures
             | using the Backblaze SMART data:
             | https://karthikna.github.io/Prediction-of-Hard-Drive-
             | Failure...
             | 
             | I can't comment on their findings, but it's DEFINITELY an
             | interesting thing to study now that we have almost 10 years
             | of these drive stats across a pretty big drive farm.
        
       | ksec wrote:
       | The whole reason why the market still demands HGST. There is a
       | whole segment / sector / section of industry that refuse to call
       | it anything other than HGST. And they are willing to pay for it.
        
       | jenny91 wrote:
       | The thing people care about is the AFR over time: like actuarial
       | life tables. These updates always make it a bit hard to figure
       | that one out: the tables show "average life" and AFR; it makes no
       | sense to compare drives of different ages.
       | 
       | The "Age vs AFR" plot is getting there but it should be flipped
       | and is hard to read; error bars would also help.
       | 
       | Also percentiles would be useful: people want to minimize the
       | probability of failure.
        
       | dsr_ wrote:
       | I had osmosed that the bathtub curve isn't real, but the new
       | time-trail quadrant graph certainly looks like evidence for at
       | least the infant-mortality section.
        
       | raybb wrote:
       | I wonder if they consider doing something like putting data more
       | likely to be accessed on the more reliable drives so that that
       | ones that wear out easier are used less.
        
       | Melatonic wrote:
       | I love these stats
       | 
       | Generally I only buy enterprise drives
        
         | throwaway894345 wrote:
         | According to https://www.backblaze.com/blog/how-backblaze-buys-
         | hard-drive..., consumer drives give better quality, and the
         | main reason BB buys enterprise drives is that consumer drives
         | aren't available at their scale.
        
       | malwarebytess wrote:
       | I don't even look at reviews when it's time to add more storage.
       | I go straight to these updates. Hasn't steered me wrong.
        
         | comboy wrote:
         | These have been popular for some time now and I've been
         | wondering what are the chances of manufacturers sending better
         | batches to Backblaze. I imagine you run some batch and some
         | percentage of disks don't pass tests, you may adjust something
         | or maybe it's the last one before routine machine maintenance,
         | etc. No idea if there really even is such thing as batches
         | which manufacturers know have higher failure rates. But it
         | would be interesting.
         | 
         | Backblaze shouldn't complain though ;)
        
           | Sakos wrote:
           | https://www.backblaze.com/blog/how-backblaze-buys-hard-
           | drive...
           | 
           | Some interesting answers to this and other questions.
        
       | mark-r wrote:
       | I was wondering why there were so many Star Wars quotes, then I
       | realized today is May the fourth. Nicely done!
        
       | joncrane wrote:
       | I like how the article was posted on May 4th and it has lots of
       | Star Wars references.
        
       | azalemeth wrote:
       | Lovely and wonderfully punny write up.
       | 
       | I wonder if they've done any proper Cox proportional hazards
       | lifetime analysis across the different models? The stats for this
       | sort of problem are well developed. Of course, the hazard is not
       | going to be proportional, I suspect, bit I'd love to see that
       | come out of the regression...
        
       | alex3305 wrote:
       | Based on these reports and pricing, I've currently filled my NAS
       | with only Toshiba drives. 1 4TB, 1 5TB and 2 14TB drives and all
       | of them have been great. These enterprise drives are quite noisy,
       | but my oldest already runs for over 4 years without any
       | reallocated sectors or other issues. Apart from that, Toshiba
       | provides free 5 year warranty on these drives.
       | 
       | And the best thing? These bad boys are only 250 euro's for 14TB
       | or 300 euro's for 18TB of raw storage capacity.
        
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       (page generated 2022-05-04 23:01 UTC)