[HN Gopher] To improve medical trials, justify exclusion criteria
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       To improve medical trials, justify exclusion criteria
        
       Author : klevertree
       Score  : 79 points
       Date   : 2022-04-26 13:39 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (trevorklee.substack.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (trevorklee.substack.com)
        
       | duxup wrote:
       | >There might well be good reasons for these exclusions that I'm
       | not aware of.
       | 
       | Is it possible that these reasons are more obvious or known to
       | some folks and they just didn't list them, or they just wanted to
       | see what happens without those groups, and it's not about
       | shenanigans?
        
         | halyax wrote:
         | I do think there's a reasonably compelling case that drug
         | companies could make for wanting to measure/demonstrate their
         | drug's performance in an ideal population first - now the fact
         | that they then go on to market the product with little to no
         | care for the populations excluded from the trials undercuts
         | this significantly. But it is at least possible that its not
         | _entirely_ shenanigans...
        
       | pfisherman wrote:
       | I think the author makes a fair point, but the analogies and
       | examples in this piece offended my aesthetic sensibilities to the
       | point that I find myself wanting to disagree with him purely out
       | of spite.
       | 
       | > Some of these exclusion criteria are pretty straightforward.
       | [...] you'd want to avoid any participants with conditions that
       | make them predisposed to gain or lose weight, as that would make
       | an apples-to-apples comparison across groups more difficult.
       | 
       | Absolutely!
       | 
       | > However, there are other exclusion criteria that I don't
       | understand at all. Why no oral contraceptive use? Why no smoking?
       | Why no diabetes[...]?
       | 
       | Smoking makes you lose weight. Diabetes is literally
       | characterized by abnormal metabolism.
       | 
       | > There might well be good reasons for these exclusions that I'm
       | not aware of. [...] However, those reasons are not outlined here.
       | 
       | Agreed. There should at least be a sentence in a supplement
       | somewhere.
       | 
       | One things about trials and extrapolation is that trails are
       | tightly controlled and will never reflect real world conditions
       | in terms of the patient population, the intervention, or the
       | context in which the intervention is performed.
       | 
       | This is a double edged sword. It's good because you can get
       | "cleaner" measurements and data by getting rid of cofounders and
       | such. But it's bad because your trial scenario may be unrealistic
       | and your results may not translate into the clinic.
       | 
       | If anything good has come out of Surveillance capitalism and
       | those shitty EPIC / Cerner EHR systems that everybody (except for
       | hospital quality people) hates, it is a drastic improvement in
       | capabilities for post market data collection (i.e. real world
       | data).
       | 
       | RWD is increasingly a thing at FDA. I think the big issue there
       | which needs public discussion is the extent to which post market
       | data collection should either replace or augment clinical trials.
       | If you replace clinical trials with RWD then you are essentially
       | running mass experiments on sick people with untested drugs,
       | which is monstrous. If you purely augment, then it is basically
       | like a tax and you are driving up the cost and complexity of drug
       | development.
        
       | meowface wrote:
       | >These unjustified exclusions can have real clinical
       | implications, too. For example, most asthma studies exclude
       | morbidly obese people, as morbidly obese asthma is notoriously
       | resistant to treatment and there aren't good explanations as to
       | why. However, once asthma drugs are approved, they're approved
       | for all asthmatics equally. As a result, morbidly obese people
       | get prescribed asthma drugs that were never tested on people like
       | them [1].
       | 
       | >[...]
       | 
       | >[1] This is literally going on today by the way. The FDA
       | approved Tezpire as a breakthrough drug for asthma in December
       | 2021. Tezspire excluded morbidly obese people from their efficacy
       | trials. This fact is not mentioned anywhere in Tezspire's
       | labeling.
       | 
       | Wow, I had never heard of anything like this before. Does the FDA
       | have a justification for why there isn't a requirement to mention
       | significant exclusions like this?
        
         | chmod775 wrote:
         | I feel like I have to play devil's advocate here a bit.
         | 
         | Obesity is an easily treatable condition. One might try to
         | treat them in order: Obesity first, then the asthma. That would
         | justify excluding that particular complication from the study.
        
           | AlchemistCamp wrote:
           | > Obesity is an easily treatable condition.
           | 
           | Is it? I thought long-term success rates were very low and
           | that prevalence was increasing all over the globe.
        
             | bryan_w wrote:
             | Also a person who has trouble breathing tends to not do
             | significant exercise because they run out of breath too
             | quickly.
        
               | jallen_dot_dev wrote:
               | While exercise is healthy, it isn't a great way to lose
               | weight. Eating a healthier diet, in particular lower
               | calorie, is how you lose weight.
        
             | chmod775 wrote:
             | prevalence != difficulty of treatment
             | 
             | people's unwillingness to cooperate != difficulty of
             | treatment
             | 
             | Asthma also isn't the only condition that is hard to treat
             | in morbidly obese people. For many conditions it will be
             | too late to start paying attention to one's calorie intake,
             | but asthma is one that is survivable in the meantime.
             | Severe discomfort and _possible_ death tends to be a good
             | motivator.
        
               | throwthere wrote:
               | Researchers generally analyze intervention success by
               | _intention to treat_.
               | 
               | If a treatment is telling people to "start paying
               | attention to one's calorie intake," and that doesn't have
               | the desired effect, whatever the reason, I think it's
               | fair to say that intervention isn't useful.
        
               | chmod775 wrote:
               | Success rate _also_ isn 't the same as difficulty.
               | 
               | It's very easy to fill out a lottery ticket, but success
               | rate is very low.
               | 
               | Success is a boolean condition that often first needs to
               | be defined, while difficulty is a spectrum and a more
               | rigid concept. Really the only complication is subjective
               | vs. objective difficulty (what is objectively difficult
               | may be subjectively easy to someone practiced).
               | 
               | Difficult things require hard skills. Reducing someone's
               | calorie doesn't require any hard skill that I am aware
               | of.
        
               | throwthere wrote:
               | > Success rate also isn't the same as difficulty.
               | 
               | > It's very easy to fill out a lottery ticket, but
               | success rate is very low.
               | 
               | > Difficult things require hard skills. Reducing
               | someone's calorie doesn't require any hard skill that I
               | am aware of.
               | 
               | I don't really want to engage with those statements other
               | than to say I think morbidly obese people do have quite a
               | hard time losing weight.
        
               | chmod775 wrote:
               | > hard time
               | 
               | With which you mean the process causes discomfort?
               | Probably less so than being asthmatic and/or a host of
               | other things, but yes.
               | 
               | Other than that there can be some psychological issues
               | that make self-controlled treatment subjectively hard or
               | impossible. But then we'd have found another condition
               | that would need to be treated first, getting us back to
               | where we started: Somebody running a study on the
               | efficacy of a diet probably would want to preclude people
               | psychologically unable to stick to it...
        
         | gumby wrote:
         | As someone who has both designed and run clinical trials as my
         | job, this assertion is likely* nonsense. First, the division
         | you submit to will reject your recruitment criteria if they
         | feel it does not accurately reflect the treatment population
         | within the United States. They also reflect the specialty of
         | the particular division (e.g. Oncology is allegedly far less
         | worried about most side effects than, say, the Dermatology
         | division, due to the kinds of indications they deal with).
         | 
         | Second of all this kind of info _is_ on the label (prescribing
         | information) even if it doesn't make it into the short summary
         | (package insert, typically only a dozen pages or so) given to
         | patients. Doctors do read those, you know, and within their
         | specialities know what kinds of things to look for.
         | 
         | There have been some notorious cases, but by and large I've
         | found the people I worked with at the agency to be professional
         | and solid. I'm no longer in that business and have no reason to
         | say anything I don't believe.
         | 
         | * I didn't bother to look up the label for this drug but they
         | are all public info on the FDA web site and In the USP.
        
           | ada1981 wrote:
           | While you may not have financial incentives, the
           | psychological incentives are often very strong to maintain a
           | positive idea of an industry one was a part of.
        
             | gumby wrote:
             | That's a reasonable concern. All I can say is that I left
             | that field for a reason (well reasons) and have some
             | serious concern about some ethical issues and attempts at
             | gaming the system.
             | 
             | However by and large my concerns aren't around science
             | (though there are exceptions, _cough_ alzheimers), they are
             | mostly around the marketing, pricing manipulation with
             | regards to medicare (ever wonder why drug companies give
             | everyone coupons?) etc. The FDA has very little to do with
             | some of these issues and none with others (e.g. scamming
             | the taxpayer)
             | 
             | In general I don't think pharma execs are necessarily nice
             | people (though some are!) but most are not evil like the
             | Sacklers.
        
           | jahewson wrote:
           | Oh the irony that you've excluded an investigation of the
           | relevant example here, but made broad claims nonetheless.
        
             | gumby wrote:
             | My note was clear that the package insert is insufficient
             | for prescribing. It is explicitly marked so -- see a
             | comment I wrote to another reply to my GP comment.
        
               | throwanem wrote:
               | Totally unrelated, but just briefly to say, thanks for
               | your work with Cygnus.
               | 
               | I doubt I'd have been able to build a career for myself
               | in software engineering without Cygwin being available
               | and lively back in the days when I was required to use
               | Windows fulltime, and along with that I learned a lot
               | from working with it that's been of great help to me ever
               | since. And I'm to this day running Cygwin on the one
               | Windows box I still maintain!
               | 
               | So, thanks for whatever hand you had in that. If you ever
               | find yourself in Baltimore and thirsty, hit me up and
               | I'll buy you that beer or other suitable beverage I owe
               | you. :D
        
           | lkey wrote:
           | Why on Earth did you not bother to look it up before
           | asserting your opinion...?
           | 
           | https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/label/2021/76.
           | .. Body Weight Based on population pharmacokinetic analysis,
           | higher body weight was associated with lower exposure.
           | However, the effect of body weight on exposure had no
           | meaningful impact on efficacy or safety and does not require
           | dose adjustment.
           | 
           | Assuming that grandparent comment is correct about morbid
           | obesity exclusion, then you were the one spouting nonsense
           | right? Doctors will definitely give this to patients
           | regardless of weight with a note like that.
        
             | gumby wrote:
             | Both my note and the download you discuss are clear about
             | this.
             | 
             | You have linked to the the package insert, not the label,
             | and it clearly states at the very top
             | HIGHLIGHTS OF PRESCRIBING INFORMATION         These
             | highlights do not include all the information needed to use
             | TEZSPIRE safely and effectively. See full prescribing
             | information for         TEZSPIRE.
             | 
             | As I wrote in my comment:
             | 
             | > ... this kind of info is on the label (prescribing
             | information) even if it doesn't make it into the short
             | summary (package insert, typically only a dozen pages or
             | so) given to patients. Doctors do read those, you know, and
             | within their specialities know what kinds of things to look
             | for.
             | 
             | You are simply quoting the short summary and drawing a
             | conclusion based on the limited information that appears on
             | it. Perhaps the author of the blog post made the same
             | error. The doctor reads the actual prescribing information
             | and the evaluation population must be specified there.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | jmgrosen wrote:
               | The second page starts the "FULL PRESCRIBING
               | INFORMATION"; the body weight quote above comes from
               | section 12.3 of it and there is no mention of a weight
               | exclusion in the discussion of the clinical studies in
               | section 14. AFAIK, "label" typically refers to this sort
               | of ~20 page prescribing information, but is there a
               | different label you have in mind? I believe the one-page
               | package insert is the last page, page 17.
        
               | lkey wrote:
               | Am I losing my g _d_ mn mind here? You say look at the
               | label not the insert, the FDA will have it. I link you to
               | the FDA's label. The link literally had the word 'label'
               | in it drugsatfda_docs >>> label <<<
               | 
               | Inside the document there are _3_ things the  'HIGHLIGHTS
               | OF PRESCRIBING INFORMATION', _AND_ the  'FULL PRESCRIBING
               | INFORMATION' _AND_ finally  'PATIENT INFORMATION'
               | 
               | I cite the relevant information about weight from them
               | 'FULL PRESCRIBING INFORMATION: CONTENTS: PART 12 CLINICAL
               | PHARMACOLOGY and you act like _I_ not you have performed
               | some sort of bait and switch...
               | 
               |  _You_ are the one claiming expertise here, so enlighten
               | me, where is the the carve out for  "we didn't test this
               | at all on the morbidly obese" in place a doctor will find
               | it if not in 'FULL PRESCRIBING INFORMATION'?
        
         | photochemsyn wrote:
         | I believe the FDA relies on the "maximum expected utility
         | principle" - a cornerstone of free-market economic theory.
         | 
         | > "By combining the concept of utility with the notion of
         | rational decision making, economists in the mid-twentieth
         | century established a basis for the maximum expected utility
         | principle. This principle is a key concept behind the creation
         | of autonomous decision-making agents."
         | 
         | https://algorithmsbook.com/files/dm.pdf
         | 
         | This has been expressed in the past as "Each portion of wealth
         | has a corresponding portion of happiness, and of two
         | individuals with unequal fortunes, he who has the most wealth
         | has the most happiness."
         | 
         | A good way to accumulate wealth and maximize happiness is to
         | sell drugs, and preventing the sale of drugs because of
         | concerns over ill effects reduces wealth and brings sadness to
         | the pharmaceutical corporation and its shareholders and board
         | members; such sadness prevents them from hiring ex-FDA
         | employees as consultants or managers, thus defeating the
         | principle of maximum expected utility.
         | 
         | The autonomous decision-making agents at the FDA therefore have
         | no choice but to rubber stamp everything that comes across
         | their desk. Doing anything else would be irrational.
        
           | gumby wrote:
           | > The autonomous decision-making agents at the FDA therefore
           | have no choice but to rubber stamp everything that comes
           | across their desk. Doing anything else would be irrational.
           | 
           | You have clearly never tried to get a drug or device approved
           | nor have you looked at the number of drugs that fail,
           | expensively, in Phase 2 or even Phase 3. Your statement is
           | utter nonsense.
        
           | toto444 wrote:
           | > I believe the FDA relies on the "maximum expected utility
           | principle" - a cornerstone of free-market economic theory.
           | 
           | This has nothing to do with 'free-market economic theory'.
           | It's about decision under uncertainty. The concept was
           | expressed for the first time by Von Neumann and Morgenstern
           | in a book that was supposed to explain how to play poker.
           | 
           | > "Each portion of wealth has a corresponding portion of
           | happiness, and of two individuals with unequal fortunes, he
           | who has the most wealth has the most happiness."
           | 
           | I have never ever read that anywhere. One could argue that
           | rich people provide more value to society and then should be
           | prioritise in some circumstances but what you are writing
           | seems very unfounded.
        
             | samhw wrote:
             | > I have never ever read that anywhere. One could argue
             | that rich people provide more value to society and then
             | should be prioritise in some circumstances but what you are
             | writing seems very unfounded.
             | 
             | Nor have I. It's such a remarkably stupid statement that it
             | strikes me as _stupid in itself_ to think anyone should be
             | so stupid as to believe it.
             | 
             | It's also nothing whatsoever to do with expected utility
             | theory (I don't know where they _did_ get it from).
             | 'Utility monsters' - per Rawls - are a valid objection;
             | 'money monsters' are not, for the very reason that marginal
             | economic gain is not equivalent to marginal gain in
             | happiness/utility, nor would anyone think it is.
        
             | photochemsyn wrote:
             | You can get that quote from the linked text. Notice I'm not
             | actually attacking 'free-market economic theory' per se -
             | but we could adjust the behavior of FDA regulators and
             | pharmaceutical corporate boards by (1) banning FDA
             | regulators from ever taking jobs or gifts from the entities
             | they're supposed to be regulating and (2) enforcing
             | criminal penalties for fraud and deception in the
             | pharmaceutical sector.
             | 
             | There's nothing like a 5-10 year term in an American prison
             | to reduce happiness...
        
               | toto444 wrote:
               | > You can get that quote from the linked text
               | 
               | True. Utility is increasing with revenue. I misunderstood
               | this part of your comment. I read it as : 'if we want to
               | maximum social utility let's prioritise rich people'.
        
       | puffoflogic wrote:
       | Other questionable exclusion criteria: removing patients from
       | trials of a prophylactic drug if they are seen by medical staff
       | outside the trial for any reason, especially for the condition
       | being studied.
        
         | EEBio wrote:
         | How is that questionable? Isolating to one relevant treatment
         | per group is a standard procedure.
        
           | puffoflogic wrote:
           | It gives study staff the ability to exclude arbitrary sick
           | patients from the trial. Combine this with a little harmless
           | unblinding and the whole study outcome can be fabricated with
           | plausible deniability.
           | 
           | Notice that I'm referring exclusively to studies of
           | prophylactics. The patient getting sick _is_ the data point.
        
       | oversocialized wrote:
        
       | TYPE_FASTER wrote:
       | > Why no smoking?
       | 
       | Smoking can be an appetite suppressant:
       | https://www.npr.org/2011/06/09/137085989/the-skinny-on-smoki...
       | 
       | > Why no diabetes, given that this is an overweight subject
       | group?
       | 
       | Given the goal of intermittent fasting is to get insulin levels
       | low enough that your body burns fat instead of sugar, and based
       | on this article at least IF requires closer monitoring of your
       | diet, maybe they wanted to eliminate a variable/variables.
       | 
       | https://www.verywellhealth.com/diabetes-and-intermittent-fas...
        
         | cperciva wrote:
         | _maybe they wanted to eliminate a variable /variables._
         | 
         | There's an even simpler explanation: Fasting can provoke
         | dangerous hypoglycaemia in diabetics. The first priority for
         | trials is the safety of the participants.
        
       | vericiab wrote:
       | >The FDA approved Tezpire as a breakthrough drug for asthma in
       | December 2021. Tezspire excluded morbidly obese people from their
       | efficacy trials.
       | 
       | This statement is very misleading because morbidly obese people
       | were only excluded from the Phase 2 PATHWAY trial[1] and were not
       | excluded from the larger Phase 3 NAVIGATOR trial[2]. The FDA
       | approved Tezpire based on both trials demonstrating efficacy, not
       | just the PATHWAY trial.
       | 
       | [1] https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02054130
       | 
       | [2] https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03347279
        
       | Jensson wrote:
       | > While they have utility as tools to make running trials on
       | interventions easier or more straightforward, they're too often
       | used to run different trials altogether than what's promised in
       | the abstract.
       | 
       | Yes, this makes it a lot easier to find something to publish. If
       | they stop doing this they hurt their career prospects, it might
       | be good for science but it isn't good for the individual.
       | 
       | In order to improve science you need to see it from a capitalist
       | perspective where the researchers are desperately fighting over
       | resources. As long as that fight is won by performing bad science
       | we will mostly get more bad science. The most critical part to
       | change is peer review, today we treat peer review as the main
       | cornerstone of the scientific method, even though it is very
       | unrelated, it is only to help filter out the worst of spam, it
       | doesn't say much at all about the validity of the paper.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | photochemsyn wrote:
       | Based on the record of the pharmaceutical industry and their
       | entirely captured regulatory agency, the FDA, it's not entirely
       | unwise to wait about ten years after the introduction of a
       | 'breakthrough drug' to see if it actually has negative side
       | effects that were not discovered in the clinical trials. See
       | Vioxx, etc.
       | 
       | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC534432/
       | 
       | > "Dr Graham, associate director in the FDA's Office of Drug
       | Safety, said an estimated 88,000 to 139,000 Americans had heart
       | attacks and strokes as a result of taking rofecoxib. The number,
       | he said, far exceeds earlier disasters such as the 100 children
       | killed in the United States by an elixir of sulfanilamide in the
       | 1930s and the 5,000 to 10,000 children born in the 1960s with
       | birth defects related to thalidomide. Both events led to sweeping
       | regulatory changes in the United States."
       | 
       | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC534432/
       | 
       | This is an unfortunate situation as relatively safe and effective
       | medicines (i.e. Sars-CoV2 vaccines) end up mixed in with
       | ineffective and even dangerous ones, and the public has no real
       | way of distinguishing between them. As the whole opiate epidemic
       | (driven by pharmaceutical corporations pushing their FDA-approved
       | products via shady doctors and pill clinics) demonstrates, these
       | outfits only care about profit margins, and since there are no
       | criminal penalties and any fines are sure to be much less than
       | their profits, they have no incentive to change their behavior.
        
         | WalterBright wrote:
         | You may not have 10 years to wait if you're dying of some
         | disease.
        
           | TameAntelope wrote:
           | You dying to a disease is nobody's fault (usually). You dying
           | to a bad drug is arguably someone's fault, and I suppose
           | there are probably not any number of documents you can sign
           | that will completely abdicate the responsibility for your
           | death from the corporation that created the chemical compound
           | that resulted in your demise.
           | 
           | And probably for good reason? I _really_ don 't want to live
           | in a society that gives people the ability to sign their life
           | away so corporations can run scientific experiments on them
           | that have a real chance of death.
           | 
           | I think there are some exceptions to this, but _generally_ it
           | makes sense to not let people go from  "dying of a disease"
           | to, "dying of a drug".
        
         | avgDev wrote:
         | I just want to add some anecdotal evidence and what my
         | experience has been like with a popular antibiotic. Cipro has
         | wrecked my connective tissue and nervous system. This family of
         | drugs has been around for a long time. The side effects have
         | been discussed in medical studies for years. The drug has a
         | black box warning label. Yet it gets prescribed very often
         | against the current FDA recommendation to only be used for life
         | threating infections. I have talked to top physicians in the US
         | and they literally just ignore the problem like it doesn't
         | exist. I have connected with physicians, chemists and other
         | people with PhDs from all over the world who suffered the same.
         | A pharmacists I know was called crazy by her colleagues when
         | she said what happened to her.
         | 
         | My primary physician has stopped prescribing the medication, I
         | send pages of research to him, which he probably didn't have
         | time to read but it validated what is going on with me. He was
         | surprised I actually took the covid vaccine, as not only did
         | cipro screw me up but the whole medical community also
         | completely ignored me and kept asking about anxiety. When I
         | clearly had mechanical issues with tendons. They ran a bunch of
         | tests and told me I was healthy.
         | 
         | Recently, Dr. Stefan Piper released a book on FQAD
         | (flouroquinolone associated disability) and discussed
         | pathogenesis, possible causes and therapies he has been using
         | on hundreds of patients by now. He is an actual MD. From his
         | experience a subset of people who are diagnosed with fibro, cfs
         | developed it after taking the an fq antibiotic. Currently,
         | there is no way to test for it. However, Mayo clinic is doing a
         | study right now, to see if flouroquinolones are causing damage
         | to mitochondria.
        
         | pdonis wrote:
         | _> relatively safe and effective medicines (i.e. Sars-CoV2
         | vaccines)_
         | 
         | By your own logic, we don't know this, because these vaccines
         | haven't been in use long enough.
        
           | photochemsyn wrote:
           | I personally went and got vaccinated the second month the
           | Pfizer vaccine was released (but not the first) and even so I
           | viewed myself more as a guinea pig in a clinical trial than
           | anything else. As I had no immediate negative symptoms, I
           | then got the second dose on schedule. Had some minor muscle
           | stiffness in the arm after that one that persisted for a few
           | months. I then got the booster when it came out, as at that
           | point the data seemed pretty clear: side effects were
           | minimal, and the risks of hospitalization and long Covid
           | justified vaccination.
           | 
           | Notably however I certainly didn't expect that the vaccine
           | wouldn't be 'sterilizing' and at the time the FDA was keeping
           | quiet about the fact that vaccinated people could be
           | asymptomatic carriers and spreaders of Sars-CoV2, which now
           | seems widely accepted. The clinical data from the original
           | trials has yet to be released as I understood it, and it
           | likely showed that as well.
        
           | hallway_monitor wrote:
           | Exactly this. In this case it does seem like emergency speed
           | was justified. However, every year over 1,500 drugs are
           | pulled off the shelves because, like vioxx, they were
           | discovered later to have terrible side effects. Maybe some of
           | these would have been found with different study
           | demographics. Maybe not. Drugs are dangerous.
        
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