[HN Gopher] Building the Inverse Jim Cramer Index
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       Building the Inverse Jim Cramer Index
        
       Author : vampiretooth1
       Score  : 41 points
       Date   : 2022-04-23 18:40 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (quantbase.medium.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (quantbase.medium.com)
        
       | tjs8rj wrote:
       | Very interesting and Quantbase looks neat (as well as the other
       | investing strategies you link to: Pelosi Tracker, leveraged long
       | run investing, etc).
       | 
       | Is there a case for this as an actual investment or primarily
       | novelty?
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | myvoiceismypass wrote:
         | I am running into website issues galore with quantbase today
         | and it is turning me off.
         | 
         | Like: window alert usage for "logging", pages rendering the
         | following as text "Application error: a client-side exception
         | has occurred (see the browser console for more information)."
         | 
         | General session wonkiness.
         | 
         | Lovely console errors: "Uncaught (in promise) SyntaxError:
         | JSON.parse: unexpected character at line 2 column 1 of the JSON
         | data"
         | 
         | Seems neat, though, I don't see why or how I should trust them
         | with bank account access.
        
       | robonerd wrote:
       | But what happens when Jim Cramer starts promoting the Inverse Jim
       | Cramer Index?
        
         | SomeBoolshit wrote:
         | The moon explodes.
        
         | marginalia_nu wrote:
         | The Hofstadter crash of 2023.
        
       | ProjectArcturis wrote:
       | So, they tried a whole bunch of things, and even with the benefit
       | of that lookforward bias, their final strategy still
       | underperformed the S&P? Color me unimpressed.
       | 
       | Edit: I looked at their site and it's clear that their business
       | model is just to gather assets to charge fees on. Which is why
       | they've developed strategies like Inverse Cramer, Pelosi Tracker,
       | WallStreetBets -- these strategies don't have any alpha, they're
       | just designed to catch the eye of retail traders.
       | 
       | Also this scumbaggery, from their website:
       | 
       | "$70M+ Assets Committed*"
       | 
       | Then way at the bottom:
       | 
       | "* = "Assets committed" refers to captured user behavior in
       | attempted investments and not to assets being actively managed."
        
         | faangiq wrote:
         | No dude. Zoomlennials are disrupting the market with their apps
         | and TikTok ads. Because.
        
         | vampiretooth1 wrote:
         | I'd familiarize myself with overfitting
         | (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/overfitting.asp). That's
         | optimizing your portfolio to historical data so much so that it
         | is no longer generalizable to the future.
        
           | ProjectArcturis wrote:
           | I'm well aware of overfitting, but it seems that these folks
           | are not.
        
         | tstewart314 wrote:
         | Hey! One of the founders here. We're a recently launched
         | roboadvisor explicitly for "high risk investing" and we develop
         | these portfolios to make it easy to take advantage of more
         | exotic strategies for those without the financial or technical
         | knowledge to do it themselves (while providing tons of data,
         | transparency, and recommendations). This blog post is a fun
         | strategy poking fun at the recent popularity of "Inversing
         | Cramer" and our own spin on it. Note that this isn't a live
         | portfolio on our site.
         | 
         | For these more fun ones (WallStreetBets, Nancy Pelosi) - these
         | are specifically requested from our clients and we provide
         | extensive data and recommendations to suggest portfolios to
         | clients based on their situation. You can see for yourself: the
         | WallStreetBets portfolio is down nearly 40%. Nancy Pelosi is
         | flat - we don't hide that at all and instead make it very clear
         | with large font. Our most popular strategy (pulls the most AUM)
         | is the Quantbase Leverage Flagship, a portfolio based on this
         | paper[0] with nearly 100 years of performance history.
         | 
         | Yes we charge a fee on AUM. All robo-advisors do. This aligns
         | incentives: we make (more) money only when you do. We're not
         | for everyone, and even for those we are for we recommend on our
         | front page to limit investment to a fraction of your total
         | portfolio, but the thesis we believe in is solid: you can
         | improve your absolute returns by taking a higher level of risk.
         | We make it easier to do that intelligently, with proper data,
         | and with the proper risk management. Happy to answer any other
         | questions.
         | 
         | [0]:
         | https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2741701
         | 
         | Edit: added "more" to clarify the AUM fee incentives alignment.
        
           | ProjectArcturis wrote:
           | >Yes we charge a fee on AUM. All robo-advisors do. This
           | aligns incentives: _we make money only when you do._
           | 
           | This is absolutely false. You charge a 0.94% management fee.
           | That fee gets paid whether or not customers' portfolios go
           | up.
        
             | tstewart314 wrote:
             | We can't charge performance-based fees as much as we'd like
             | to with mass retail clients, according to the SEC[0]. Not
             | charging except when a client portfolio beats a benchmark
             | or profits counts too. AUM fees are considered by the SEC
             | to be the best way to align incentives between advisors and
             | clients.
             | 
             | Furthermore, up to this point, we've been completely free
             | for current clients to ensure we're providing value before
             | charging anything.
             | 
             | At the same time, we charge a fraction of the fees vs other
             | "high-performance" oriented managed alternatives: Grayscale
             | at 2%, Titan at 1%, typical hedge fund 2/20, etc
             | 
             | We're VC-backed, SEC-registered, our goal at the end of the
             | day here isn't a quick cash grab, it's to be a long-
             | standing, sustainable, valuable experience for clients in a
             | space (high risk investing) that currently lacks exactly
             | those things.
             | 
             | (and by the way: an AUM fee is just about the slowest way
             | one could "cash grab", decades-old robo-advisors are barely
             | profitable with it. It's not a high-margin business at
             | all).
             | 
             | [0]: https://www.sec.gov/rules/other/2021/ia-5733.pdf
        
           | [deleted]
        
       | calderwoodra wrote:
       | Is there any reason to believe that Jim Cramer (or the inverse of
       | Jim Cramer) would do particularly well in the stock market?
       | 
       | I imagine following a cat picking random stocks works about as
       | well.
       | https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2013/01/14/169326326/hous...
        
         | HWR_14 wrote:
         | > Is there any reason to believe that Jim Cramer (or the
         | inverse of Jim Cramer) would do particularly well in the stock
         | market?
         | 
         | Jim Cramer, before he was on TV, did well beating the market as
         | a fund manager. So there is a good reason to believe he could.
         | Whether he could televise his strategy to retail investors
         | _and_ funds looking to profit from retail investors and make
         | _his viewers_ money is a different question.
        
         | cuteboy19 wrote:
         | Inversing a pump and dump operation, provided it is well timed,
         | can easily beat the market. Assuming that Cramer is a paid
         | actor, this could probably be the case here
        
           | vampiretooth1 wrote:
           | When you say, paid actor, are you proposing that Cramer is
           | being paid by some fund to pump a stock that they already
           | have a position in? I don't know, but I believe it'd be
           | highly unlikely given that he had a pretty good career as a
           | fund manager himself, probably doesn't need more money.
           | 
           | The article mentions (or links somewhere to this info) that
           | there's no longer a Cramer pump, although there definitely
           | was a couple years back
        
             | kadoban wrote:
             | > probably doesn't need more money.
             | 
             | What's he doing on TV all the time then?
        
               | vampiretooth1 wrote:
               | Having fun? What are rich founders doing that are still
               | at the helm of their own company, what are rich fund
               | managers doing that have already proven their merit?
        
               | kadoban wrote:
               | Mostly making money because they don't know what else to
               | do? Does anyone actually enjoy doing a ~daily tv show?
               | Seems like a lot of work.
        
               | askafriend wrote:
               | Well it takes a certain type of person...and I guess he's
               | that person. I'm sure he likes the attention.
        
               | kadoban wrote:
               | He probably also likes money. In my experience "has
               | money" doesn't equal "can't be corrupt", to tie this back
               | up a few levels in the thread.
        
         | tomc1985 wrote:
         | WallStreetBets had something that was like a fish in a fishtank
         | somehow directing stock purchases, versus WSB, and WSB lost.
        
           | asperous wrote:
           | It was a YouTuber, possibly inspired by a 2012 stunt
           | 
           | [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USKD3vPD6ZA
           | 
           | [2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/12/20/any-
           | monkey...
        
           | tjs8rj wrote:
           | OP's linked site Quantbase shows a WallStreetBets tracking
           | portfolio with detailed performance history: https://www.getq
           | uantbase.com/details?fund=r/WallStreetBets%2...
        
           | eggbert12 wrote:
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | pavlov wrote:
       | For taking a position against another growth stock hype luminary,
       | there exists an inverse Cathie Wood index you can trade: an ETF
       | with the ticker SARK ("short ARK"). It has done quite well since
       | its inception last year.
        
         | dominotw wrote:
         | >done quite well since its inception last year.
         | 
         | that probably doesnt say much though. what happens if its run
         | since ark's inception?
        
           | dehrmann wrote:
           | This is also a problematic metric because of survivorship
           | bias and as part of that, most investors showed up late to
           | the game. Despite the fund having done well, it still could
           | have a negative return over its life when weighted by AUM.
        
           | pavlov wrote:
           | A short fund like this is a trading instrument. I don't
           | imagine anyone holds it for years.
           | 
           | The fund makes its money on fees, not on price appreciation.
        
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       (page generated 2022-04-23 23:01 UTC)