[HN Gopher] The Attribution Stack: How to Make Budget Decisions ...
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       The Attribution Stack: How to Make Budget Decisions in a Post-iOS14
       World
        
       Author : hammer_mt
       Score  : 49 points
       Date   : 2022-04-14 09:06 UTC (2 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.reforge.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.reforge.com)
        
       | username223 wrote:
       | I always feel strange seeing these walls of pseudo-scientific
       | marketroid babble. Their fundamental purpose is to make some
       | fraction of people choose Crest over Colgate, or vice versa, but
       | they've fallen so far down the rabbit-hole of this mundane task
       | that they can come up with competing "models" and multi-thousand-
       | word articles promoting and explaining them.
       | 
       | From an ordinary human's perspective, it's like shopping for
       | groceries and getting side-tracked into a discussion of the
       | natures of free will and the fundamental building blocks of
       | matter. I just want to buy some decent-tasting apples, not grasp
       | the neural correlates of my apparent "choice," or the string-
       | theoretic basis of their multicolored skins.
       | 
       | That's not to say there aren't useful nuggets to be gleaned. For
       | example, the fact that "third-party consumer data" and "customer
       | matching" are the highest form of marketing surveillance tells me
       | they're buying data from credit card companies and shady "data
       | brokers," and correlating that using whatever identifiers they
       | can. So I should probably keep entering fake phone numbers, zip
       | codes, and email addresses when I can.
        
         | Nextgrid wrote:
         | > Their fundamental purpose is to make some fraction of people
         | choose Crest over Colgate
         | 
         | Their fundamental purpose is to convince their boss or client
         | that they are indeed making consumers choose one over the other
         | and make up data and/or theories to support that assertion so
         | they can justify their fees/salaries/bonuses. They don't
         | particularly care whether consumers are actually choosing the
         | product.
        
       | jeroenhd wrote:
       | Good to see that Apple's anti tracking features are having a real
       | world impact on the cyberstalking done by marketeers. Clearly the
       | war isn't won yet, but if Apple can keep thinking up new privacy
       | features to advertise their products with, things can only get
       | better.
        
       | pete_nic wrote:
       | > The truth is we're in a post-truth world, where more than one
       | opinion is valid. You should never trust just one single source
       | of information, without validating what it's telling you, and
       | thinking about the potential motivations and incentives behind
       | that conclusion.
       | 
       | Wisdom applicable beyond the topic of this article
        
         | throwmeariver1 wrote:
         | There was never a truth world it was always a world of trust
         | and the trust got eroded in the last decades but it's still
         | there. If you trust your business partner or your life partner
         | you can make decisions without checking them. If you trust no
         | one, your decision making is so hampered that even if you come
         | to the right conclusion it's most certainly too late.
        
       | iinnPP wrote:
       | One side effect I noted in working through the mentioned iOS
       | upgrades was how it impacted various groups.
       | 
       | Our marketing efforts began seeing a skew towards groups more
       | likely to own either an older iPhone or an Android device.
       | 
       | The product has died, thankfully.
        
       | hdjjhhvvhga wrote:
       | It's hilarious how they call privacy features "apocalypse." Kudos
       | for Apple for making the lives of these folks more difficult.
        
         | pete_nic wrote:
         | Perhaps a bit idealistic but I aspire for a world where
         | companies can segment and target their market while consumers
         | maintain a level of privacy.
        
           | Nextgrid wrote:
           | If we assume that privacy is 100% respected, "segmenting and
           | targeting" is still not something that benefits consumers.
        
             | pete_nic wrote:
             | Do you believe privacy is 100% respected in the offline
             | world? A billboard for a personal injury lawyer on the
             | highway or an ad for headphones at a subway stop are all
             | examples of segmentation and targeting we experience in the
             | offline world.
        
               | dev_tty01 wrote:
               | How is that disrespecting privacy? The billboard (so far)
               | is not doing facial or license identification and
               | recording that I drove by the sign at 2:23 on Monday at
               | 63 mph.
        
               | theamk wrote:
               | The equivalent of this is showing gaming keyboard ads on
               | ign.com, and bank ads on bloomberg.com. As long as same
               | ads are shown to every visitor, this is no problem at
               | all.
               | 
               | The people hate it when their actions on one site affect
               | ads on completely unrelated sites. Real wold equvalent
               | would be a salesman saying "I was passing by your house
               | yesterday amd noticed you got a new bed.. Want to buy
               | some bedsheets at a great price?". I think we agree this
               | would be super creepy.
        
               | pete_nic wrote:
               | Contextual advertising
               | 
               | https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/contextual-
               | advertising....
        
               | jen20 wrote:
               | People can do that kind of online targeting without the
               | need for privacy invasion. For example, if I wanted to
               | target Apple users who probably have some disposable
               | income, I'd buy an ad slot on John Gruber's blog. If I
               | wanted to advertise to frequent travellers, I'd advertise
               | on FlyerTalk. That kind of thing.
        
         | trurl wrote:
         | And still folks think that if side loading is forced on Apple,
         | that companies will not force us to start side loading their
         | apps to escape this "apocalypse".
        
           | glowingly wrote:
           | I agree. We only have to look 3 years ago to see exactly what
           | happens when those same companies get sideload access.
           | Facebook did something very similar, using their Apple App
           | Store Developer certificate to enroll users as "employees,"
           | allowing them to defacto sideload their market research
           | application.
           | 
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19033451
           | 
           | I also fully expect the last browser holding against Google's
           | browser monoculture - Safari - to die soon after.
           | 
           | I hate this state of affairs, where Apple's sheer greed is
           | the main force stablizing this fragile environment.
        
             | Apocryphon wrote:
             | Those instances show that Facebook is willing to do that to
             | small incentivized groups of users- in that case,
             | volunteers offered monetary benefit via gift cards, but
             | difficult to say such a model is accomplishable on a wide
             | scale. This is a situation where the users were self-
             | selecting.
             | 
             | Certainly, companies will misuse and abuse the freedoms
             | associated with sideloading, but I disagree that it's as an
             | easy task as people think. First they actually have to
             | build competing app stores that are compelling enough for
             | users to overcome the friction of switching. I don't think
             | these companies, other than game platforms like Epic, and
             | perhaps tech companies in politically sensitive markets
             | such as China or Russia, have it in them:
             | 
             | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30808926
        
               | trurl wrote:
               | I don't understand why you think building alternative app
               | stores is somehow a limiting factor. If you want to use
               | some software, and the company wants to bypass Apple's
               | protections, they'll just put a download link on their
               | website. Why go through the hassle of registering with
               | any "app store" at all?
        
               | Apocryphon wrote:
               | Because Apple still wields control over iOS, which means
               | they can also curate how the sideloading experience. I
               | don't believe that even if legislation and regulator
               | action forces iOS to permit sideloading, that it
               | necessitates sideloading to be done in as casual a
               | process as it is to download and install software on
               | macOS, Windows, or desktops in general. Apple will still
               | be able to determine how sideloading is done. And they
               | can make the process very guarded, with multiple
               | disclaimer screens and agreement menus that the user must
               | assent to before they are allowed to sideload. Even on
               | Android today, enabling sideloading is a multiple step
               | process:
               | 
               | https://techcult.com/sideload-apps-on-android/
               | 
               | Furthermore, I believe that Apple can choose to shape the
               | experience even after sideloading is enabled. They can
               | add badge icons that single out sideloaded apps. They can
               | force sideloaded apps to be on specifically marked pages
               | on the springboard. They can add alerts and popovers
               | galore that ask the user "Do you really want to do that?"
               | wrt the sideloaded apps. Apple is a master of UX and
               | branding - if they can influence millions of users via
               | the blue iMessage bubble vs. the green SMS chat bubble
               | dichotomy, they can find a way to subtly single out
               | sideloaded apps as worthy of concern. Emergent user
               | behavior then follows.
               | 
               | Finally, as I have mentioned in the previous link, Apple
               | still controls the operating system that all apps,
               | whether sideloaded or not, exist on. If they wanted to
               | harden its security and strengthen entitlements in such a
               | way that even sideloaded apps cannot bypass certain
               | privacy or security safeguards, they can probably find a
               | way. At they very least, they can introduce a similar
               | notarization process that they _already do_ on macOS on
               | non-Mac App Store apps.
               | 
               | https://developer.apple.com/documentation/security/notari
               | zin...
        
               | trurl wrote:
               | Yeah, I figured someone might try this argument.
               | 
               | Everyone seems to keep forgetting, there is already an
               | option on iOS for developers not wanting to go through
               | the App Store: web apps. I believe WASM can even be used
               | these days. Except that Safari doesn't offer developers
               | some privacy sensitive APIs other browsers do. The
               | current side loading pressure has very little to do
               | avoiding Apple's cut and everything to do with bypassing
               | Apple's restrictions.
               | 
               | So I expect should Apple introduce a heavily sandboxed
               | side-loading experience, we'd be seeing developers
               | complain they are not adhering to the spirit or the law
               | or lawsuit.
        
               | Apocryphon wrote:
               | PWAs have long failed to reach adoption on mobile- not
               | just iOS, but also on Android- because of technical
               | limitations that they have compared to native. And
               | perhaps, lack of sufficient interest both from
               | independent developers and from larger tech corporations.
               | That interest is probably orthogonal to the sideloading
               | battle.
               | 
               | Seeing as how Epic was the first company to launch a
               | lawsuit against Apple's control of the App Store, and
               | they certainly care more about avoiding Apple's cut, and
               | little about privacy restrictions, that would seem to
               | contradict your point. We haven't exactly seen Meta or
               | Google throw in with Sweeney's crusade. Instead, the
               | companies who have publicly supported the suit have all
               | been companies that want to bypass the 30% cut, such as
               | Spotify or Tinder.
               | 
               | Finally, if Apple introduces a heavily sandboxed
               | sideloading experience (hopefully they will also
               | introduce more privacy sensitive APIs to Safari as
               | well!), then perhaps the courts will recognize that as a
               | reasonable action and beneficial to consumers and the
               | public interest, and will not press the matter further.
               | There's only so much back and forth this sort of thing
               | can wage on in the public, anyway. Lawsuits are costly in
               | time, in attention, and in fees. If Apple does something
               | in good faith, unlike what they've been doing in response
               | to Dutch legislation (0), then presumably our systems of
               | democracy will appreciate it.
               | 
               | (0) https://twitter.com/marcoarment/status/14895954171174
               | 83010
        
             | trurl wrote:
             | I agree that having to rely on Apple here is not great, but
             | no other ecosystem is even trying.
        
             | Nextgrid wrote:
             | If side-loading or alternate app stores are allowed I fully
             | expect a "Facebook Store" to appear which includes (and
             | mandates) Facebook malware in every app and most mainstream
             | apps eventually moving over to it.
        
               | Apocryphon wrote:
               | I think if this was a decade ago, when Facebook was
               | younger (newly post-IPO!), hungrier, and had a better
               | reputation with the public, that might have happened.
               | 
               | But nowadays Meta is older and much more disreputable,
               | many of their new products seem to be clones of other
               | things that exist, from Clubhouse to HQ Trivia, and users
               | are far more jaded towards the company.
               | 
               | Not to mention, mobile and tech in general has matured to
               | a state that a brand new app store, at least from a tech
               | giant everyone knows about, coming to iOS isn't as
               | exciting as it used to be. What does another mobile app
               | store offer the average consumer? They barely download as
               | many new apps from the actual official App Store. Having
               | to deal with another platform account, even if expedited
               | through Facebook login would be another friction point
               | for users, another set of confusing permissions to
               | juggle, another payment system to hook up to, another
               | downloads history to keep track. Users are already
               | getting burned out by having to deal with so many video
               | streaming platforms that piracy is making a comeback, why
               | would they be willing to put up with a Facebook Store
               | just to get Instagram? At least signing up for Paramount+
               | lets you watch the Halo television show, what does
               | signing up to the Facebook Store do besides let you use
               | Facebook- which you already can?
               | 
               | No, I believe that even if Meta really does launch such a
               | store, they would not be willing to pull their official
               | apps away from the actual App Store. They will hedge
               | their bets because it is unlikely that all, or maybe even
               | most, Facebook users will switch to their app store. If
               | forced to have to use a whole new store for no good
               | reason, many consumers will just stop using Facebook, and
               | find substitutes to Instagram instead.
        
               | Nextgrid wrote:
               | > What does another mobile app store offer the average
               | consumer?
               | 
               | The fact that most of the apps they use moved over to it
               | because it doesn't have the pro-privacy restrictions that
               | the official App Store has.
        
               | Apocryphon wrote:
               | Yes, and they would be angry at the people who make their
               | apps for doing that for no apparent reason, the users who
               | are more tech savvy will recognize that this is a ploy to
               | harvest their data by forcing migration to platforms with
               | fewer privacy restrictions, there will be big public
               | backlashes on social media, people will boycott these new
               | app stores simply because of the hassle, the companies
               | will be forced to reverse their decision and put their
               | apps back onto the App Store, and it would be an
               | expensive waste of time.
               | 
               | One can even imagine that if the app getting moved is
               | sufficiently widely used and utility-like, such as
               | WhatsApp or Messenger, or even Facebook itself, the
               | courts might start antitrust investigation into _Meta_ ,
               | and that company would face pressure to keep those apps
               | available on both their own Facebook Store and on the
               | official App Store (where the majority of users are).
               | After all, antitrust provisions apply not only to Apple,
               | but to all companies.
        
         | JKCalhoun wrote:
         | > You've probably had this experience: you spend some time on
         | the whiteboard mapping out your marketing funnel and growth
         | loops, and you're really fired up ready to grow your business,
         | but then the ultimate question hits you like a sledgehammer:
         | "How are we going to track this?".
         | 
         | No, I have not.
         | 
         | One wonders how Sony in the 1950's (as an example) "tracked".
        
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       (page generated 2022-04-16 23:01 UTC)