[HN Gopher] Avalanche Energy - Fusion power you can hold in your...
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       Avalanche Energy - Fusion power you can hold in your hands
        
       Author : nynx
       Score  : 36 points
       Date   : 2022-04-14 18:31 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.avalanche.energy)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.avalanche.energy)
        
       | otikik wrote:
       | This is something I have been wished it existed since Back to the
       | Future's Mr Fusion. I don't think it's possible to build it. My
       | understanding (as a layman) is that you either need energies
       | which melt all solid matter, or you either need impossibly high
       | precision, to a point where you can play snooker with individual
       | atoms. But that level of control also requires high energy, and
       | you are back to square one
        
       | fizzyfizz wrote:
       | I'm sure it's a coincidence that their graphics make it look like
       | the "arc reactor" from the Iron Man movies.
        
       | ecpottinger wrote:
       | All I can say, if they have a working system, just make power and
       | sell the power.
       | 
       | Seems every time something like this comes up they can`t produce
       | power and sell it for money, but they want you to invest money in
       | them. If they are anything why not just self-invest.
        
       | 908087 wrote:
        
       | zokier wrote:
       | I dug into the background, and found this article:
       | https://www.geekwire.com/2022/blue-origin-vets-unveil-startu...
       | 
       | The punchline is
       | 
       | > The startup has raised a $5 million seed round, secured a
       | Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT) International Patent, and
       | recently emerged from stealth mode. _A few weeks ago, Langtry and
       | Riordan generated their first neutrons via fusion._
       | 
       | But there is also nugget of information that gives some hint on
       | the technology:
       | 
       | > While researching the field, Langtry came across a graduate
       | thesis from a Lockheed Martin researcher named Tom McGuire. It
       | included open source code for simulations for an electrostatic
       | fusion reactor. The idea became the seed for Avalanche Energy's
       | technology.
       | 
       | Notably Lockheed Martin themselves have also made noises about
       | fusion power:
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8486335
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20484100
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8458371 (there should be
       | another thread for this article that I can't find?)
       | 
       | This is both good and bad thing; on one hand, the concept might
       | not be completely bogus if LM has been researching it too. But on
       | the other hand, if LM with their billions together with McGuire
       | who seems like a pretty smart fellow haven't figured how to make
       | it work, then this startup is having quite an uphill battle ahead
       | of them.
        
         | hcarvalhoalves wrote:
         | Isn't that the definition of venture capital, though? Throwing
         | only $5 million on an area like fusion power w/ _huge_ upside
         | should be cheap.
        
         | josaka wrote:
         | I think this might be the PCT application in question (same
         | name as the founder, and about fusion):
         | https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=WO20...
         | Discusses an "orbital confinement fusion reaction."
         | 
         | (They might be overstating things with "secured a Patent
         | Cooperation Treaty (PCT) International Patent." No such thing
         | as a PCT _patent_. PCT 's are just notice under a set of
         | treaties that you might file an application in any of the 193
         | WIPO member states. No one ever has asserted a "PCT Patent."
         | That said, PCT applications are examined, but the result is
         | only advisory and countries often reach a different result when
         | the examine the national phase filings.)
        
       | wrycoder wrote:
       | This is a nice website, with a useful comparison of fusion
       | technologies, pro and con, including their own. I didn't see any
       | red flags.
       | 
       | There must be papers and parents somewhere.
        
         | colechristensen wrote:
         | The red flag is that it is quite implausible that anything like
         | this will be successful any century soon.
        
           | GrumpyNl wrote:
           | Thats a bold statement, a lot can happen in a century.
        
       | atlasunshrugged wrote:
       | Fascinating! Wonder what the major differentiator between this
       | and say the Nuclear Battery proposal is for commercial users.
       | Easier use for space (partially saying this because the founding
       | team seems to be Blue Origin)?
        
         | blamazon wrote:
         | As another datapoint, their careers page is advertising an
         | opening for a "Fusion Space Systems Architect":
         | 
         | https://www.avalanche.energy/careers.html
        
       | blamazon wrote:
       | If you'd like to try building a Nuclear Fusor at home, rejoice,
       | for Makezine has instructions for you! It probably will consume
       | more energy than you can recoup from it, however.
       | 
       | https://makezine.com/projects/nuclear-fusor/
       | 
       | " _Time Required: >16 Hours Difficulty: Hard_"
        
         | belter wrote:
         | Warnings:
         | 
         | "Glass vacuum chambers can implode. Do not operate the vacuum
         | system without safety goggles. Reminder: High voltage and
         | current can injure or kill. Fusors may generate harmful
         | radiation. Do not attempt to build or operate this fusor unless
         | you understand the risks and are capable of safely using high
         | voltage and vacuum equipment. Do not run this device at more
         | than 12kV rectifier input."
        
       | kemiller wrote:
       | This website is full of "we want to" and "we plan to" statements.
       | Something like this would of course be extraordinarily useful but
       | it smacks of free energy scams.
        
       | bentona wrote:
       | Any clue what one of these might cost?
        
         | xwdv wrote:
         | I think most I'd probably pay is somewhere between $2-3k
        
           | tgsovlerkhgsel wrote:
           | Let's pretend this is real and a magic box that sits in a
           | corner and outputs 5 kW of power (with ignorable fuel cost),
           | and lasts 10 years.
           | 
           | First of all, they can simply put it in a corner and sell the
           | power. Wholesale generation prices vary but around 5 ct/kWh
           | is a good approximation. That would be 25 cents per hour,
           | $6/day, ~2.2k per year. They could probably sell it for at
           | least $20k.
           | 
           | But this can _replace_ grid power. So now they can sell it at
           | least for the price of a solar + battery setup, plus coolness
           | factor surcharge, plus the fact that you can rely on it year-
           | round unlike solar, so you don 't need a grid connection at
           | all. Another application where they can probably make at
           | least $20k but probably more from each unit.
           | 
           | Now, let's go further. Electric cars. You'd probably need
           | multiple units and a small battery for peak power demand, but
           | let's ask this way... how much _extra_ do you think people
           | would pay for a truck that magically refuels itself, for
           | free? I 'd totally see two of those being a $50-100k upgrade
           | for electric cars. Or a truck that doesn't need batteries
           | _and_ powers your house when parked.
           | 
           | That's just the absolute no-brainer mass market applications.
           | Now imagine anything that is remote or has other difficulties
           | in getting power. Cell towers, scientific or military
           | outposts, spaceships...
        
           | djrogers wrote:
           | That's patently ridiculous. A device that can put out a
           | steady 5kw at nearly zero cost generates >15k worth of
           | electric bill offset annually in California. That would make
           | it worth at least 15k*MTBF...
           | 
           | It's be less elsewhere, but there's nowhere that this amount
           | of electricity would be worth so little that $2k makes any
           | sense.
           | 
           | That said, this smells like total Theranos level baloney, so
           | it'll never happen.
        
         | tsimionescu wrote:
         | The vapourware product or the whole scam-ish company?
        
       | ycombigator wrote:
       | Press 'X' to doubt.
        
       | learndeeply wrote:
       | This seems obviously fake, since there's no proof. Can someone
       | steelman a good argument for why this could be feasible?
       | 
       | Also, if you had achieved true fusion (more energy emitted than
       | put in), wouldn't the more profitable thing to do is replace
       | power plants? Why does it need to be portable?
        
         | colechristensen wrote:
         | If you actually had a fusion device that could be carried
         | around in a suitcase, you wouldn't need to make claims about
         | it, you could just show it.
         | 
         | It's like the monthly new cure for cancer. It's not even a
         | "scam", just yawn. Show me some produced energy or even output
         | anywhere close to input. If you had that you'd change the world
         | and wouldn't need to sell it.
        
         | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
         | I mean, a fool and his money are soon parted. This is so
         | obviously either an outright scam or just otherwise not what it
         | claims to be.
         | 
         | If you could _truly_ get  "fusion power you can hold in your
         | hand", that has even a decent amount of power output above
         | input, you would basically solve 95% of the problems of
         | humanity. In that case, I'd expect something a little more
         | momentous than a brochureware website.
        
       | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
       | Can it be embedded into someone's chest?
       | 
       | Asking for a friend...
        
       | greesil wrote:
       | As usual, extraordinary claims require... well, proof.
       | 
       | Edit: I really hope this startup snake oil shit doesn't come to
       | fusion power. Maybe they'll have an NFT too.
        
         | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
         | Taking bets on the crypto angle. Reminds me of this project,
         | https://arrowair.com/, which is about some sort of open source
         | VTOL aircraft, and the first thing they built was ... something
         | on Ethereum.
        
         | bashmelek wrote:
         | On the other hand, that gives me the idea to pitch clean cold
         | fusion energy to power quantum computing that generates a
         | quantum encrypted infinite denominational new currency based on
         | NFTs.
        
           | MikeDelta wrote:
           | The solution to all our problems! Where can I invest?
        
       | phire wrote:
       | Assuming this isn't an outright scam; I notice they make no
       | claims about input power.
       | 
       | They claim 5KW of electrical power out, but make no mention of
       | how much power went in, or how much waste heat it generated.
        
       | ISL wrote:
       | Beyond the fact that novel fusion technologies tend to fail
       | badly: A fusion system you can hold in your hands is something
       | that will generally expose you to a whole lot of neutrons.
        
       | maxrmk wrote:
       | I recently met someone who works here, and I'm extremely
       | skeptical of it. My impression was that it wasn't an outright
       | scam (they have at least a few real employees), but that they
       | were wildly out of their depth.
       | 
       | The founders are ex-blue origin mechanical engineers, and I think
       | they've fallen into the classic engineers trap of thinking that
       | problems out of their areas of domain expertise are "simple". The
       | real kicker for me was that they had only just hired their first
       | physicist after working on the project for several months.
       | 
       | Obviously I'm potentially falling into the same trap -- I don't
       | work on fusion, and it's easy to be a skeptic. But that was my
       | impression.
        
         | blamazon wrote:
         | I worked at a company like this (chasing novel high efficiency
         | small-scale energy production) for a while and it was a lot of
         | fun. Just my friends and I working very hard to build something
         | impossible with other people's money. Countless hours in the
         | lab failing over and over again, but learning at a tremendous
         | pace and feeling like we were getting closer than anyone else
         | would believe. There was much stress as our nutjob CEO
         | portrayed increasingly fanciful mistruths to a revolving door
         | of investors.
         | 
         | I wish the folks at Avalanche Energy the best, even if I think
         | their business proposition is... dubious.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | PaulHoule wrote:
       | Is this a variant of
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inertial_electrostatic_confine...
       | 
       | ?
        
         | wrycoder wrote:
         | Yes, I would say it is.
        
       | HstryrsrBttn wrote:
        
       | folli wrote:
       | This website is incredibly sparse on information. Location:
       | Seattle, no address. Zero info about the team, any affiliations,
       | scientific advisory board. No references to papers, nor patents.
       | 
       | Even Theranos is more convincing than this.
        
         | causi wrote:
         | Unfortunately "being utter horseshit" is not a flaggable
         | offense.
        
         | infogulch wrote:
         | No information about what it is or how they build it or how
         | it's different from the thousands of other teams trying to do
         | fusion right now.
         | 
         | But they have a flashy website!
        
         | rmbyrro wrote:
         | In fact, Theranos could come be back to the market with a 2.0
         | machine. And they would still be more convincing than this.
        
       | pr07ecH70r wrote:
       | I wouldn't call them a scam, but a far fetched utopian dreamers.
       | No one (with his sane mind) would put money w/o an MVP (minimum
       | viable product in the startup jargon). It looks fancy, site looks
       | futuristic. I love Iron Man btw. But that is that.
        
       | hobscoop wrote:
       | It sounds like they're trying to build a device with a
       | distribution of ions in velocity space which is very far from the
       | equilibrium Gaussian-type distribution ('Maxwellian'). This is
       | difficult because there will be about a million collisions for
       | every fusion reaction that happens, and collisions tend to
       | redistribute velocities toward the equilibrium. Collisions
       | between unlike particles (different species of ions, or ions vs
       | electrons) will also cause diffusion in physical space. This
       | could cause ions to leave the chamber much more quickly.
        
         | pmdulaney wrote:
         | Hey, no fair -- you sound like you actually know what you're
         | talking about...
        
         | ISL wrote:
         | This is the key observation that isn't obvious about fusion.
         | The capture cross-section is smaller than the scattering cross-
         | section, so essentially any beam design is doomed to fail.
         | 
         | I'm an experimental physicist who recently looked hard at
         | jumping into the fusion game. My approximate conclusion is that
         | anything that doesn't involve some form of adiabatically heated
         | plasma is extremely unlikely to work.
         | 
         | Fusion is an efficiency and engineering problem: how can you
         | ensure that each particle gets enough energetic collisions to
         | have a prayer of fusing before it loses energy?
        
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       (page generated 2022-04-14 23:03 UTC)