[HN Gopher] Why Netflix Should Sell Ads
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       Why Netflix Should Sell Ads
        
       Author : jger15
       Score  : 17 points
       Date   : 2022-04-04 15:13 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (stratechery.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (stratechery.com)
        
       | horsawlarway wrote:
       | I don't normally mind stratechery, but I think this one is a
       | _complete_ miss.
        
       | Finnucane wrote:
       | I still subscribe to the DVD by mail service. If Netflix had ads
       | in streaming content, we'd use that more.
        
       | dddnzzz334 wrote:
       | I am just gonna stick to Piracy. I will continue get superior
       | service while legit payers will continue to suffer.
        
       | buffington wrote:
       | If Netflix introduced ads I'd cancel immediately, even if my paid
       | plan didn't show me those ads.
        
       | chrismeller wrote:
       | "This post contains product placement"
        
       | axg11 wrote:
       | There's a wider dilemma at play for Netflix. As the article
       | points out, they've reached a point where their main product
       | (paid streaming) has saturated the market. They won and there's
       | not much more to be gained there.
       | 
       | Options for their next move essentially boil down to:
       | 
       | (a) expand into "other bets" (e.g. games)
       | 
       | (b) compromise on the quality of their product and brand by
       | selling ads to gain incremental revenue
       | 
       | (c) give up on growth and be happy with a large, sustainable
       | business
       | 
       | They are openly pursuing (a), which is the ideal outcome. Ideally
       | they can even launch gaming or some other form of entertainment
       | as a separate subscription, helping to diversify their revenue.
       | 
       | I see (b) as the backup plan. If they're not able to diversify
       | into another revenue source, their next best bet is to compromise
       | their existing product and extract the final bit of juice using
       | advertising. Some number of customers will drop down from paid to
       | free, and that number is difficult to model. Netflix could also
       | end up shooting themselves in the foot by introducing ads, if
       | that convinces the whole industry to do the same. In the long run
       | that will reduce margins for all.
       | 
       | Finally, (c) isn't compatible with the type of capitalist society
       | we live in. Sometimes a company has peaked and that's OK.
        
         | michaelbuckbee wrote:
         | Beyond pursuing, right now, if you log into the Netflix app on
         | your iPhone they have a Gamepass/Apple Arcade style set of game
         | that you receive alongside your subscription.
        
           | orhmeh09 wrote:
           | Indeed, I played a round of a game made by Trivia Crack last
           | night. It was my first time and I think it's a new addition?
           | Just popped up on my Home Screen yesterday.
        
       | zck wrote:
       | I think people are missing the suggestion of this article. It's
       | not suggesting that Netflix adds advertising to the existing
       | subscriptions; it's suggesting they add a lower-priced
       | subscription supported by ads.
       | 
       | >...it would create a new benefit for those willing to pay (i.e.
       | no advertising for the highest tiers).
       | 
       | If they kept the existing $10/$15.50/$20 plans the same
       | (https://help.netflix.com/en/node/24926), but they add a $5 ad-
       | supported subscription, that's not changing anyone's experience,
       | unless they choose to switch.
        
         | badrabbit wrote:
         | No! At any freaking tier. What stops them from starting to sell
         | data from other tiers? It will become part if their business
         | model and will eat away everything they do, including content
         | creation. Put that cancer back in pandora's box please!
        
         | buffington wrote:
         | Everyone's experience changes when a company begins to consider
         | ad revenue.
         | 
         | How those changes shake out is hard to predict. It's not a
         | stretch to suggest that even little things change for everyone
         | though. Adding ad revenue changes how a company thinks about
         | nearly everything, whether they're aware of it or not, and
         | ultimately the end user suffers.
         | 
         | For example, Netflix would likely start trying to tweak content
         | discovery in a way that benefits advertisers. Rather than show
         | me content that matches my historical interests, they show me
         | content that optimizes ad revenue as well. It's unlikely they'd
         | maintain two different "ad-free" and "ad-full" recommendation
         | algorithms.
         | 
         | Motivated by pressure from advertisers, Netflix might be less
         | inclined to produce or provide content that made advertisers
         | uncomfortable or benefitted an advertiser's competitors.
         | 
         | When producing content, they now have two bosses: subscribers,
         | and advertisers. Both have entirely different expectations.
         | Those expectations push Netflix into making compromises, and
         | rarely do those compromises produce outcomes that are better
         | than if they only focused on making one side happy.
        
           | zck wrote:
           | This is a fair critique!
           | 
           | It's just more nuanced than "I don't want to watch shows with
           | ads".
        
             | formerkrogeremp wrote:
             | And we'll being going to piracy if we had to watch ads on
             | top of paying a monthly fee. This would be ridiculous.
             | There's advertising almost everywhere else. Why do we need
             | more advertising?
        
       | badrabbit wrote:
       | You know how there are so many nice posts that make you go "I
       | would want to buy this person coffee/beer if I could.", I feel
       | the exact opposite towards this person. People like this are why
       | shitty services like Hulu exist and why cable TV charges you $200
       | and is 70% (at least) ads!
       | 
       | I will pay netflix more than any cable company because the
       | quality of their content.
       | 
       | Exploitative capitalism at its finest. Shortsighted greed with no
       | room for imagination. I can spend 15 min and come up with at
       | least 5 ways to charge customers more without needing to sell
       | them ads. I don't care if it costs $0.99 I will cancel if they
       | have even one ad and I will pay up to $2-300 for no ads
       | (including for other users because it creates a perverse
       | incentive to collect user data and sell anyways). You want
       | cheaper with ads? There is a myriad of services that provide that
       | (although the cheap part is rare!)
        
       | mrlonglong wrote:
       | Do that and I will end my Netflix subscription.
        
       | Ancalagon wrote:
       | As other commenters out this seems like horribly short term
       | thinking. The reason I subscribe to Netflix and Amazon prime and
       | NOT to Hulu or YT is because Hulu has ads (prime has internal ads
       | I suppose, but I've always been able to skip those unlike
       | YouTube).
       | 
       | I understand content generation is expensive. Maybe Netflix needs
       | to expand more on the IPs they currently own? Merchandising and
       | such (how about a LEGO/Stranger Things crossover anyone?)
       | Differential pricing models for other countries would make sense
       | too. I'm sure the board has thought of all of these and none are
       | particularly easy, but putting ads where they don't belong would
       | ruin their brand.
        
         | michaelbuckbee wrote:
         | Both Hulu and YT have premium (mostly) ad-free experiences. I
         | say mostly as the line gets a little blurry with cross
         | promotion of other shows on the same service.
        
           | Ancalagon wrote:
           | Yeah and I think this blurred line of ads vs no ads damaged
           | their brands at the onset as now I associate them with old
           | school cable tv, which is what I was trying to escape.
        
       | akagusu wrote:
       | Will it be free if it sells ads or will people pay for the
       | privilege of watch ads?
        
       | KerryJones wrote:
       | This changes the brand of Netflix considerably. While many
       | competitors do this (Hulu, YouTube), it's a terrible experience
       | and I've seen both myself and others simply turn to Netflix to
       | avoid the ads. I think this would break their brand and is more
       | short-term thinking, i.e. "how do we increase value in the next
       | quarter", rather than long-term thinking of how to keep growing
       | as a company.
        
         | giobox wrote:
         | > While many competitors do this (Hulu, YouTube), it's a
         | terrible experience and I've seen both myself and others simply
         | turn to Netflix to avoid the ads
         | 
         | In credit to YouTube and Hulu, they give you the option to go
         | ad free, or in the case of YouTube pay nothing at all. Have
         | cheap price and ads, or pay a little more and get the ad free
         | experience. I happily enjoy ad-free Netflix, YouTube and Hulu.
         | 
         | > I think this would break their brand and is more short-term
         | thinking, i.e. "how do we increase value in the next quarter",
         | rather than long-term thinking of how to keep growing as a
         | company.
         | 
         | If you have read the article and try to respond to the authors
         | points more directly, he is making a pretty compelling case as
         | to why this is not short term thinking at all - subscriber
         | growth is effectively over for the company now in the near
         | term, there are little new customer households left to sell a
         | subscription to for Netflix, which is of course why we are
         | seeing more frequent subscription price rises too. On the
         | contrary, he is laying out a long term strategy that _may_
         | still deliver growth, something subscriptions increasingly won
         | 't as subscriber growth continues to inevitably fall.
         | 
         | As YouTube and Hulu both prove, one can have ad-supported and
         | ad-free subscription tiers on the same service, and I suspect
         | is likely the path Netflix would follow if they pursue such a
         | plan in future. While as an individual you may not like ads
         | (thats fine!), the slow down of subscriber growth at Netflix is
         | pretty clear and will require a response from the business,
         | which so far has been price rises...
        
         | aidenn0 wrote:
         | It is also non-trivial to implement in a way that supports
         | older devices; I can't watch ad-supported prime video channels
         | on my BluRay player, which is rather annoying.
        
       | scotuswroteus wrote:
       | Why Stratechery aspires to be an industry rag but the guy can't
       | write well (2239 of 2239)
        
       | version_five wrote:
       | They may be able to make more money this way. To me this is akin
       | to explain why we should be strip mining or clear cutting more.
       | It works from a scorched earth capitalism perspective, but
       | doesn't leave is in a good place
        
         | axg11 wrote:
         | Agreed. Netflix need to decide whether they want to be more
         | like Google/Amazon (multiple diversified bets) or Spotify (one
         | undiversified but very strong ecosystem).
        
         | PaulHoule wrote:
         | Subscribers are more valuable people to market to than non-
         | subscribers because they've already qualified themselves by
         | proving they'll spend money for something.
        
           | AnIdiotOnTheNet wrote:
           | A big part of that something is not wanting any goddamned ads
           | though.
        
             | robbedpeter wrote:
             | Ads are by their very nature derogatory to anywhere they
             | are placed. Ads never add value to any experience. They
             | always take time and attention from the viewer's intended
             | activity.
             | 
             | Not all product information is advertisement.
        
               | PaulHoule wrote:
               | I think many people think the ads on the Superbowl are an
               | attraction.
        
               | robbedpeter wrote:
               | The advertisement part of the superbowl content takes
               | away from being entertained. The negative impact to the
               | consumer is being manipulated, for example, to prefer
               | budweiser over coors because the giant horses and
               | dalmatian puppy made you tear up. That's got nothing to
               | do with beer.
               | 
               | Remove the advertisement / manipulation from the content
               | and it's more valuable to the consumer.
        
               | panda88888 wrote:
               | I feel super bowl commercial are different though. They
               | aren't the average ads--they are the high budget, high
               | creativity jewel crown of ads.
        
               | cupofpython wrote:
               | Netflix could have gotten away with ads a few years ago
               | maybe. Not now with all the competition available. their
               | content is relatively weak tbh now that a lot of the
               | classics have moved to other platforms. I'd be gone
               | immediately
        
               | horsawlarway wrote:
               | I don't think they could have, even then.
               | 
               | Competition was incredibly fierce, it just came from
               | cable TV.
               | 
               | The main subscriber base for Netflix was essentially
               | folks who didn't want to see ads, and were willing to
               | ditch cable tv for that experience.
        
         | nopenopenopeno wrote:
         | This is just regular capitalism.
         | 
         | Adam Smith, John Stuart Mill, and Karl Marx all agreed on the
         | tendency of the rate of profit to fall.
         | 
         | https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Tendency_of_the_rate_of_profit_to...
        
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