[HN Gopher] Have economists led the world's environmental polici...
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       Have economists led the world's environmental policies astray?
        
       Author : pingou
       Score  : 57 points
       Date   : 2022-03-29 19:32 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.economist.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.economist.com)
        
       | ohNoz3 wrote:
        
       | wolverine876 wrote:
       | > And that is without counting the returns on the investment.
       | British officials reckon that three-quarters of the total cost of
       | the transition to net zero will be offset by benefits such as
       | more efficient transport, and that the state may need to spend
       | only 0.4% of gdp a year over three decades.
       | 
       | That also omits by far the largest return on investment, which is
       | frequently omitted: Preventing the costs of climate change.
       | 
       | People who criticize actions to prevent climate change often talk
       | about the economic impact of those actions. The economic impact
       | of not preventing climate change - in addition to the impact on
       | human life - is usually far greater. The question is not, 'how
       | much does this change cost?', but 'what are the outcomes of our
       | various options?'.
        
       | alephnan wrote:
       | How well respected is The Economist when it comes to covering the
       | global economy truthfully ?
       | 
       | I've noticed there is a growing anti China sentiment from The
       | Economist in recent years.
        
         | jker wrote:
         | And The Guardian has growing anti-American sentiment. Yet they
         | both publish excellent reporting.
        
       | gtvwill wrote:
       | Articles paywalled. But the irony of an economist trying to
       | explain why they aren't wrong using the failed quasi science that
       | is economics is lulzy as hell.
       | 
       | Economics isn't a science it's a collection of hypotheticals
       | which rarely maintains consistency in results. To place such
       | weight on these hypotheticals as we do, well we reap what we sow
       | as they say.
        
         | colinmhayes wrote:
         | This is just a strawman. No one is claiming economics is a
         | science with ground truth. That being said, people on the
         | aggregate do generally act rationally, and they absolutely
         | respond to incentives, which is pretty much all you need for
         | economics to be useful.
        
           | gtvwill wrote:
           | Actually mate they try pass economics of as a science so
           | regularly they use it to influence policy. Which if the title
           | of this article is correct. It's been part of the reason our
           | environmental policiea globally have been so woeful ("you
           | can't do that you'll ruin the economy"). It's the case here
           | in aus and most of the western world, your telling yourself
           | porky pies if you think it's not happening. Economics places
           | be all and end all weight on growth and dollars. When for the
           | most of us that results in detrimental outcomes. For example
           | as I write this I'm currently in a motel because my house is
           | flooded out by a 1 in 100 year flood, the 2nd time this
           | month....
        
             | colinmhayes wrote:
             | > Actually mate they try pass economics of as a science so
             | regularly they use it to influence policy.
             | 
             | I don't see how economic conclusion influencing policy
             | means people think econ is a physical science. What I do
             | know is that "you can't do that you'll ruin the economy" is
             | not something economists ever say. That's something
             | politicians say. Economists widely support policy that may
             | have negative short term effects in order to achieve long
             | term gains, but these policies aren't politically viable,
             | so they are ignored.
             | 
             | The idea that climate change is in some way caused by
             | economics is misguided. Climate change is caused by human
             | nature. People are extremely unwilling to make sacrifices
             | when they aren't sure they'll see the results. That's why
             | our environmental policies have been so woeful, not because
             | economists object.
        
         | geysersam wrote:
         | Agree 100%. Economic theory is more moral philosophy and
         | religion than science. To begin with, its fundamental
         | motivation rests on utilitarianism. But then it also fails to
         | accomplish that goal because it values the utility of a rich
         | person buying something expensive more than it values ten poor
         | persons buying something essential. That's also why a carbon
         | tax does not work.
        
       | mistrial9 wrote:
       | paywall "Already have an account? Log in"
       | 
       | short answer is "yes"
        
         | wing-_-nuts wrote:
         | I just disable javascript via ublock whenever I hit that sort
         | of thing. 90% of the time things are hidden client side and
         | that stops it. The other 10% I have to decide if i really want
         | to go find an archive link to use.
        
           | [deleted]
        
       | kkfx wrote:
       | My own raw and personal opinion, after having read books from
       | Green New Deal, Great Reset promoters like "Covid-19: The Great
       | Reset", by Klaus Schwab (head of World Economic Forum) and
       | Thierry Malleret or Value(s): Building a Better World for All by
       | Mark Carney (former head of UK central bank) I read the
       | "environmental policies" as nothing really environmental, by
       | points:
       | 
       | - the western world is in decline, mostly for self-inflicted
       | damage, since the actual situation is irrecoverable, the game is
       | lost, a new global war like WWI or WWII can't be done, then
       | overturn the table creating a new society forcing others who
       | still depend on western tech to follow is a way to "reset" the
       | game;
       | 
       | - to do so an excuse is needed and seen the actual climate
       | changes and level of pollution it's easy to choose that as an
       | excuse, a true fact, depicted as solvable in a way that do not
       | really solve anything but sound credible to public eyes;
       | 
       | - since the French Revolution the world instead of being led by
       | classic aristocracy (witch means by who detain the military
       | power) is led by economy so by economist.
       | 
       | Why the green new deal is not green in the sense of spring grass
       | green but more in the sense of dollar-green and stereotypical
       | toxic waste spills from rusty barrels? Because all publicized
       | today, from the ONU New Urban Agenda to the Green Deal itself is
       | _partially_ and _marginally_ about the environment and much more
       | about a Chinese-like society, smart cities, drone delivery of
       | industrial ultra-processed food, no travels except for very few,
       | only public transportation, ... just read the classic
       | https://www.forbes.com/sites/worldeconomicforum/2016/11/10/s...
       | and try to see what emerge.
       | 
       | EVs? it's clear and clearly stated here and there that they can't
       | be like actual cars, only few will get EVs like actual cars, most
       | will get "glorified golf carts" [1] most others will live in
       | "smart cities" designed like SK Goshiwon or JP Capsule Hotels,
       | depending on public services because they'll can't afford the
       | price of a "new" real car but "fun and be distracting enough" to
       | keep those mass of population calm. Heat pumps? Ok, for new homes
       | they are effective to reduce night/no/not-enough p.v. production
       | time for heating a house or producing hot water, with p.v.
       | productions they are needed mostly only to cool a home, without
       | modern home + p.v. are just ways to consume less electricity at a
       | significant price and peoples aren't much pushed for
       | environmental reasons but for artificially skyrocketed prices by
       | speculation of the same people who publicly sell the Green New
       | Deal.
       | 
       | To be clear:
       | 
       | - politically I'm on the left side of the spectrum, the REAL left
       | side
       | 
       | - I'm an environmentalist concerned by actual climate change
       | 
       | - I've built my new well-insulated home, with domestic p.v.
       | 
       | - I do not own an e.v. simply because it's not green at all, and
       | economically it's still more expensive than modern EU diesel, in
       | the future when diesel here will be a 4 euros per liter than will
       | be cheap and I hope it can be integrated in the house micro-grid
       | so I'll buy an e.v.
       | 
       | Just remember a thing: economist like those who drive our
       | countries these days are the new generation of the same who have
       | laid the foundations of devastating II half of 1800 wars and WWI
       | and WWII. How "environmentally concerned" they can be?
       | 
       | [1]
       | 
       | https://www.vice.com/en/article/y3vny5/glorified-electric-go...
       | 
       | https://www.motorious.com/articles/features-3/uk-eliminating...
       | 
       | various trends toward cars-as-a-service, leasing etc
        
       | zwieback wrote:
       | Any article that uses Norway as a positive example needs to also
       | mention that that country is a large exporter of oil. How much of
       | the incentives of e-cars come from oil profit?
        
         | breakyerself wrote:
         | Isn't using oil profits to fund a transition to renewable the
         | ideal use for those funds?
        
           | usrusr wrote:
           | Norway actively took a bet that long term, oil lying under
           | their shelf might not appreciate in value quite as much as
           | most would expect and opted for faster extraction than
           | others. They might have had a certain hunch that scarcity
           | might not be the only possible end game for oil?
        
           | zwieback wrote:
           | Not the worst use, for sure, but instead of incrementally
           | improving the climate situation Norway is making it worse
           | until suddenly much better, when everything is converted.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | wing-_-nuts wrote:
       | I think the best way to kill carbon emissions are with a revenue
       | neutral 'vat' style tax. Give the money you took for co2 back on
       | the income tax, and people will spend it decarbonizing in an
       | attempt to dodge the tax.
       | 
       | Having said that, I have zero faith that we will ever do anything
       | substantial to stop climate change while the billionaire class
       | funds grover norquist style hit men to terrify conservatives at
       | the mere mention of the T-word.
        
         | sofixa wrote:
         | > Give the money you took for co2 back on the income tax, and
         | people will spend it decarbonizing in an attempt to dodge the
         | tax
         | 
         | Even better, preempt this by funding decarbonising programmes
         | first, with the threat of a tax in some fixed time period.
         | People will decarbonise without the publicity hit of "new
         | taxes".
        
         | wonderwonder wrote:
         | I dont think anyone is going to go for a new tax especially if
         | it hits the middle class and poor. Even if one political
         | administration implemented it, the next would revoke it. Carbon
         | neutral technologies just need to be able to compete on price
         | and appeal. Tesla has proven its possible in transportation and
         | other car companies are following suit. Need a couple of high
         | profile competitive examples in other industries, especially
         | power. They also need really good lobbyists.
        
           | wing-_-nuts wrote:
           | The problem is that carbon intensive technologies _do not_
           | pay for the damage they 're doing to the environment. The tax
           | I suggested was revenue neutral, which means the average poor
           | person would get back as much in income taxes on their
           | paycheck as they paid in carbon taxes. Technically, this
           | doesn't 'hit' anyone and it benefits those willing to change.
           | I think you're right though that this is politically
           | infeasible simply due to short-sightedness and cowardice.
        
           | ZeroGravitas wrote:
           | Tesla succeeded, in large part, because of government
           | subsidies and some policies that are essentially carbon taxes
           | with extra steps.
           | 
           | Some people would say that as an insult, but I both think
           | it's true and a good thing.
           | 
           | Putting a price on carbon has been a winning strategy
           | everywhere it's been used. People just have had to hide it,
           | because it's too easy to scare people with lies about taxes,
           | so we get the exact same thing, but slightly less efficiently
           | implemented.
        
           | imtringued wrote:
           | The solution is quite easy. Implement the carbon dividend
           | first, then charge taxes.
           | 
           | When you give people money and then tell them that money
           | comes from carbon taxes they will understand that.
           | 
           | If you introduce a new tax and then tell them you are going
           | to give it back they won't understand it at all, they won't
           | even trust you to implement the dividend.
        
       | vsareto wrote:
       | https://archive.ph/1HeyE
        
       | Biologist123 wrote:
       | As a counter argument to the piece in the Economist, this article
       | by Steve Keen (University College London professor) explains the
       | gross errors made by economists in their modeling of climate
       | damages, how those errors arose and their implications.
       | 
       | TL;DR: Nobel prize-winning economist, William Nordhaus, willfully
       | or negligently underestimated climate damages.
       | 
       | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14747731.2020.1...
        
         | AtlasBarfed wrote:
         | Oh very nice.
         | 
         | I rant to an annoying degree (sorry everyone) about the
         | fundamental pro-business cultural bias of economics-the-
         | profession, and how this has failed the human race to a
         | frightening degree. Considering economics-the-profession is
         | usually the first source of academic approval/opinion on
         | government policy (because science sure as shit isn't.
         | 
         | What makes it most annoying is that "externalities" is largely
         | a bolt-on. And even worse, Economics-the-culture is averse to
         | things they can't measure in some way (even though I'd say
         | their measurements of EVERYTHING they do rely is is pretty
         | bad).
         | 
         | How does Economics price the "externality" of global warming?
         | The lost value of displaced and dead people, maybe a broad
         | stroke. Extinct species and habitat loss? How does one
         | nihilistically price if we head outside of phytoplankton's
         | ability to create oxygen?
         | 
         | At best, a vast underestimate, especially given the pro-
         | business bias.
         | 
         | To me the shining failure of modern economics environmentally
         | is the inability to enact a carbon tax in the last 30 years, a
         | very basic and effective mechanism. Instead, easily arbitraged
         | and gamed carbon markets.
         | 
         | Secondarily, what is the economic value of any wetland or
         | natural habitat? Vague tourism at best. The best economic use
         | of a habitat is to drain it and pave it. Economics cannot
         | measure how diversity of the species web is critical to our
         | long term survival, because it can't even see one month into
         | the future.
        
           | geysersam wrote:
           | Is carbon tax really effective? Ultimately effective in this
           | context means "removes the least valuable carbon emissions".
           | I don't think a carbon tax can accomplish that. We need
           | political decisions to make that distinction. The market does
           | not cut it in this case.
        
           | colinmhayes wrote:
           | > To me the shining failure of modern economics
           | environmentally is the inability to enact a carbon tax in the
           | last 30 years
           | 
           | Every single economist has been shouting for a carbon tax for
           | around this time frame. It's a political problem, not an econ
           | one. There are many valid complaints about academic econ. I
           | think you're right that many of them stem from a pro-business
           | cultural bias, but it really doesn't seem like you know
           | enough economics to have much of an opinion on them. Claiming
           | that externalities are a bolt on when they're taught in every
           | single econ 101 class is certainly puzzling.
        
       | geysersam wrote:
       | What is most fair? Every person on the planets gets the same
       | portion of the remaining global carbon budget. Or, it is divided
       | proportional to current wealth. A carbon tax is the latter.
        
       | Veedrac wrote:
       | > The authors are not kind to economists, who typically want to
       | put a price on emissions and then let markets do the work.
       | Economists have, the authors allege, skipped a chapter in the
       | textbooks. They have focused on externalities, the damage done to
       | society when carbon is emitted. But they do not think about the
       | elasticity of demand--the extent to which prices change
       | behaviour.
       | 
       | This completely misunderstands the point of setting a tax
       | precisely at the rate of the externality. If a good is taxed at
       | its true, global, long-term rate of externality, then the
       | externality, the damage being done, is precisely being paid for.
       | There is now no longer a net externality. If the tax means demand
       | switches to a product without that externality, then good,
       | problem solved, and if instead people still prefer that good to
       | the alternatives, then they can just go ahead and pay for that
       | good plus the tax that pays for the externality. If this isn't
       | good enough for you then probably the problem is you think the
       | price is being estimated wrong, in which case you shouldn't be
       | complaining about there being a tax, you should complain that the
       | rate it is set at is incorrect.
       | 
       | I also think the inelasticity of demand claim is mostly bogus;
       | it's inelastic on short timescales but there is plenty of
       | momentum to switch to electric cars and renewable energy even at
       | undiscounted price points. Electricity generation in particular
       | is extremely price sensitive; it's just that with cost trends
       | that cover literal orders of magnitude the crossover point was
       | always going to seem like a sudden event.
        
         | joe_the_user wrote:
         | _If a good is taxed at its true, global, long-term rate of
         | externality, then the externality, the damage being done, is
         | precisely being paid for._
         | 
         | If a little bit of CO2 pollution causes fairly quantifiable
         | harm we can live with but a lot of CO2 pollution causes runaway
         | global warming ending life on earth, what is it's "true,
         | global, long-term rate of externality"? Me, with an actual
         | degree in economics, would say there is none. Many damage
         | effects simply can't be easily put into a simple cost function.
         | But even if there somehow is such a rate, it seems quite likely
         | that bureaucracies and markets "working together" can't be
         | counted on adjust fast to be certain that price is paid.
        
           | ephbit wrote:
           | Climate scientists have long been calculating a remaining CO2
           | budget (that would prevent the worst from happening if
           | humanity didn't go over). This gives rate of CO2 emissions as
           | kg/s.
           | 
           | Economists surely can come up with some number of USD to be
           | paid for the emission of 1 kg CO2 (by looking at some
           | economic reference numbers) that will effectively render
           | 10,20,...,90%,99% of all different uses of CO2 emitting
           | processes unprofitable or economically infeasible.
        
           | WalterBright wrote:
           | It's not necessary to come up with a cost function. Instead,
           | come up with a sustainable amount of CO2 emissions. Then,
           | keep raising the carbon tax until emissions drop to that
           | amount.
        
           | geysersam wrote:
           | Also, one product having a higher price does not mean it's
           | more valuable in a global context.
           | 
           | Two carbon equivalent products can be vastly different in
           | terms of how essential they are (for the life or well-being
           | of people). Prices may not reflect that difference because of
           | global differences in purchasing power.
        
         | dkarl wrote:
         | > the problem is you think the price is being estimated wrong,
         | in which case you shouldn't be complaining about there being a
         | tax, you should complain that the rate it is set at is
         | incorrect
         | 
         | If there is no way of setting an appropriate price and fairly
         | deploying the money gathered, then the policy is unworkable to
         | begin with. From what process could an appropriate price for
         | the externalities of global warming emerge? And by what process
         | would climate refugees receive their share of compensatory
         | value from the tax?
         | 
         | In short, even if the theory checks out, it's no use unless we
         | have a political process capable of implementing it. Otherwise
         | it's about as useful as a policy of us all concentrating on
         | breathing in CO2 and shitting diamonds -- a brilliant idea if
         | we could do it.
        
           | w-j-w wrote:
        
           | DennisP wrote:
           | > From what process could an appropriate price for the
           | externalities of global warming emerge?
           | 
           | I can think of one process: charge a fee per ton of CO2
           | emissions that equals the cost of taking that CO2 back out of
           | the atmosphere and sequestering it. Then give the money to
           | whoever is able to do that and prove it.
           | 
           | That's probably too expensive right now and definitely not
           | feasible politically, but it's something to work towards. The
           | closer we get to that, the more incentive there will be to
           | develop technological methods of accomplishing it.
           | 
           | In the meantime, we're probably best off just setting the
           | price as high as we can get away with, and equally
           | distributing the revenue among residents as partial
           | compensation for the damage being done.
           | 
           | In a functioning democracy, wide distribution helps build
           | political support for a higher price. It also keeps the
           | burden from falling heavily on the poor.
        
         | robocat wrote:
         | > If a good is taxed at its true, global, long-term rate of
         | externality, then the externality, the damage being done, is
         | precisely being paid for. There is now no longer a net
         | externality.
         | 
         | Why is there no longer an externality?
         | 
         | Let's pick a concrete example: taxation of petrol in the UK.
         | The externality still exists (say people in Indonesia living on
         | the coast[1]), and more than enough fuel duty is paid to the UK
         | Exchequer to cover the externality (from article: "Britain has
         | had one of the highest levels of fuel duty in the rich world in
         | recent decades, note Mr Lonergan and Ms Sawers, but drivers'
         | take-up of electric vehicles has been unremarkable.").
         | 
         | You could make a colour of money[2] argument that there is no
         | explicit externality tax. Or perhaps the victims of sea rise
         | need to tax British petrol users? And I have a feeling your
         | argument somehow ignores surpluses or market inefficiencies?
         | 
         | [1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/29/risk-
         | fro...
         | 
         | [2] https://bam.kalzumeus.com/archive/accounting-for-saas-and-
         | sw...
        
           | derriz wrote:
           | I think I'm misunderstanding you.
           | 
           | There are multiple externalities to consuming petrol/driving
           | cars around the UK.
           | 
           | There's a local/national one. By consuming petrol you're
           | generally inflicting wear and tear on existing roads and
           | adding to the need for road-space - requiring the
           | construction of new roads. This is the externality that UK
           | petrol tax is supposed to pay for - road infrastructure
           | maintenance and construction. Ok it gets all mixed up in the
           | general UK budget but, in theory at least, the tax pays for
           | this externality.
           | 
           | But the government doesn't collect petrol tax and hand the
           | money over to distant foreign countries in order to pay for
           | global environmental externalities. So this externality is
           | not paid for by UK petrol consumers?
        
             | iso1210 wrote:
             | No, in theory it doesn't pay for the roads, and in practice
             | it doesn't. That's just a lie put about by the anti-cyclist
             | lobby.
             | 
             | Most roads are actually funded from local taxes - mainly
             | council tax and business rates in any case, not even
             | central funding.
        
               | derriz wrote:
               | There are all sorts of complex flows of money between
               | local and central taxation and spending.
               | 
               | It's not really relevant to my point which is that taxes
               | being collected by consumers of fossil fuels in the UK
               | are certainly NOT being sent to foreign countries to pay
               | for the externalities of pumping CO2 in the air.
               | 
               | As a consumer of petrol in the UK, it's a mistake to
               | think "I'm paying loads of petrol tax, so I'm paying for
               | the externalities" when the money is being spent, one way
               | or another in the UK. While the externalities are global.
        
               | sdeframond wrote:
               | How do you know which money funds what?
        
               | haihaibye wrote:
               | The amount collected is less than the cost of
               | building/maintaining roads, thus it must come from other
               | sources.
        
               | esteth wrote:
               | Because council tax and business rates get paid to an
               | entirely different entity than road tax (local government
               | vs state government) and you can see your council's
               | spending breakdown
        
           | convolvatron wrote:
           | sure. this only works if you spend that money to offset the
           | consequence - i.e. direct carbon capture. then it really is
           | no longer external.
        
           | dagw wrote:
           | _taxation of petrol in the UK._
           | 
           | As a counter example look at Norway. To a first approximation
           | no one in Norway is buying a new petrol car. The taxes are
           | simply too high compared to electric cars. So obviously there
           | exists a level where people will switch out of their own
           | short term financial self interest, without having to make an
           | environmental argument.
        
         | s1artibartfast wrote:
         | In the economic model, cost of the externality should go to
         | reverse the damage, or compensate those harmed.
         | 
         | This breaks down if the government taxes a good due to
         | externality, but spends the proceeds on something else.
         | 
         | Raising government is arguably a social good, but does not
         | benefit or compensate those harmed. Without targeted mitigation
         | or compensation, such policies are simply sin taxes.
         | 
         | I don't think this is a problem with economists, who understand
         | this well. you can not "set a tax precisely at the rate of the
         | externality" without finding the cost of the externality to
         | those impacted.
        
         | mr_toad wrote:
         | It also overlooks the fact that elasticity is not constant, it
         | changes as the price changes. Tax high enough, and demand will
         | become elastic, if for no other reason than the tax becomes
         | unaffordable.
         | 
         | If you believe that human society cannot afford to continue
         | relying on fossil fuels, because they are an existential threat
         | to civilisation, then it follows that the tax on those fuels
         | also needs to become unaffordable.
         | 
         | Taxing fuels and other carbon emissions at a high enough rate
         | to actually stop people using them is politically never going
         | to happen.
        
           | throwaway6532 wrote:
           | >If you believe that human society cannot afford to continue
           | relying on fossil fuels, because they are an existential
           | threat to civilisation, then it follows that the tax on those
           | fuels also needs to become unaffordable.
           | 
           | I think if you cut out all fossil fuels society would just
           | not work. At least not at the scale it currently does. Even
           | so called "renewables" are really only possible because of
           | the complex society that fossil fuels allow. The more I dig
           | into reneweables the more I feel like once fossil fuels go
           | away, we largely go back to the stone age.
        
             | joebob42 wrote:
             | I think the hope is that we bootstrap the renewable capable
             | complex society on top of fossil fuels and then it can
             | continue to function with the renewables it builds.
        
           | DennisP wrote:
           | As long as there are alternative to the fossil fuels, you
           | just have to set the tax high enough so alternatives are
           | cheaper.
           | 
           | If you redistribute the money to the population, then people
           | with low emissions would have a low net cost, and might even
           | come out ahead. They'll still be incentivized to go with the
           | now-cheaper low-emissions alternatives.
        
         | narrator wrote:
         | The bottom of the slippery slope is that they will eventually
         | eliminate cash and the informal economy and give everyone a
         | personal carbon ration that's debited in carbon units after
         | every transaction regardless of cash price of the transaction.
        
         | usednet wrote:
         | I agree, and I think that what you said about the rate being
         | incorrect is right. Pigovian taxes are great in models but
         | extraordinarily difficult to implement. Measuring
         | externalities, especially of something like carbon production,
         | is a monumental task that economists in my opinion have been
         | failing at. Another commenter linked a great analysis on how
         | economists are drastically underestimating the economic effect
         | of climate change (assuming 90% of GDP won't be affected
         | because its indoors!).
         | 
         | On the second point I somewhat disagree. The current
         | inelasticity of demand is extremely important as climate change
         | will become uncontrollable at longer timeframes. The current
         | trend is not enough and not fast enough. I agree with the
         | authors that Pigovian subsidies for renewables worldwide are
         | necessary as soon as possible.
        
           | LudwigNagasena wrote:
           | > economists are drastically underestimating the economic
           | effect of climate change (assuming 90% of GDP won't be
           | affected because its indoors!)
           | 
           | Please, take Steve Keen with skepticism. He is, so to say, an
           | unreliable narrator.
        
             | usednet wrote:
             | I like Steve Keen. I find his work convincing and
             | practical.
        
               | colinmhayes wrote:
               | That's fine. Just know that he's effectively a quack.
        
               | soVeryTired wrote:
               | It'd be nice to see a refutation of his arguments, or at
               | least a recognition of them. As it stands I've just seen
               | two ad hominems in a row and not much else.
        
           | imtringued wrote:
           | >Pigovian taxes are great in models but extraordinarily
           | difficult to implement.
           | 
           | Yeah so what? The bureaucracy of an income tax is a drag on
           | an economy. The bureaucracy of pigovian taxes is a blessing
           | for the economy.
        
             | usednet wrote:
             | I'm not fundamentally opposed to pigovian taxes, they are
             | the best option in many cases. For climate change,
             | definitely not the best option. I personally advocate for
             | cap and trade.
        
       | slibhb wrote:
       | > The authors argue that getting people to make the big leaps
       | needed to decarbonise, such as buying an electric car or
       | installing a domestic heat pump, instead requires "extreme
       | positive incentives for change" (epics).
       | 
       | Seems like a recipe to lose elections.
        
         | cinntaile wrote:
         | Positive incentives are when you receive money as opposed to
         | negative incentives such as fines where you have to pay money.
         | So this is unlikely to cause a political party to lose
         | elections, people like to receive money.
        
         | AtlasBarfed wrote:
         | Taxes and regulations are the recipe to lose elections, too
         | easily used to swing "undecided" voters.
         | 
         | Incentives are giveaways, which even the most devout Big-R
         | voters will jump on, because money is money.
        
         | hardtke wrote:
         | There are microeconomic concepts I learned in college that make
         | decarbonization nearly impossible. First the FREE RIDER
         | principle. Since CO2 (and methane) affects temperature
         | globally, every nation (and individual) is incentivized to free
         | ride off the decarbonization expenses of others. Second, the
         | PRISONER'S DILEMMA. Most political systems have two main
         | parties competing for power. Although both parties broadly
         | agree that climate change is bad, policies that kick the can
         | down the road are electorally advantageous (less taxes now
         | always beats a better future). Thus the NASH EQUILIBRIUM is for
         | political parties to always promise to undo any costly changes
         | the other party is proposing.
        
           | TremendousJudge wrote:
           | >Most political systems have two main parties competing for
           | power
           | 
           | I disagree. While this is true for some (US, UK), it's not
           | true for other democracies (Spain, Germany), and even less
           | true for more authoritarian systems (Russia, China). Some
           | countries have political systems that are actually able to
           | make long term decisions.
           | 
           | >Although both parties broadly agree that climate change is
           | bad
           | 
           | True in some places, but not in others, such as Russia,
           | Brazil, or (most importantly) the US.
           | 
           | While I agree that decarbonization is really hard, and in
           | part due to the reasons you listed, they are also not as
           | universal as you paint them out to be.
        
             | hardtke wrote:
             | Agree -- here in California where we only have one relevant
             | political party the California Energy commission has been
             | able to impose energy efficiency requirements for
             | appliances and buildings that have had a huge positive
             | impact on our energy usage per capita. We've also had EPICS
             | like the tax credit and ability to drive in the carpool
             | lane for hybrids and later electric cars.
             | 
             | At a US national level we have partisan trench warfare
             | exacerbated by a Senate dominated by small states and
             | supermajoritarian voting rules. It's not entirely untrue
             | that the the continued existence of the US Senate is
             | incompatible with a future habitable planet.
        
         | sofixa wrote:
         | By saying there will be a government programme funding/giving a
         | tax credit/interest free loan/whatever other incentive to
         | retrofit your house with more efficient heating or better
         | insulate it or upgrade to a more efficient vehicle? I really
         | think it's the opposite, those kinds of things are popular with
         | voters.
        
           | slibhb wrote:
           | Maybe you're right but I think Republicans would have a field
           | day with the term "extreme positive incentives for change".
        
             | colinmhayes wrote:
             | Politicians wouldn't use that term.
        
       | nonrandomstring wrote:
       | Lots of talk about taxing this or repaying that but in Meadows's
       | taxonomy of leverage points these amount to changes between level
       | 10 and 7.
       | 
       | What the article is kinda saying is that these "extreme positive
       | incentives for change" (EPICs) that are labelled
       | political/structural instruments lie outside monetary economics
       | and so hint towards level 5 and 4 changes, to system rules and to
       | self-organisational motives. I still don't get, if so, how? And
       | if so, why not apply both?
       | 
       | But ultimately changing system goals away from consumerism might
       | be the gift everyone wants. I know many bored people who want to
       | feel like they're part of big change, what Alexis De Tocqueville
       | called "restive fervour" in early America - in British parlance
       | being "up for it".
       | 
       | If economists exacerbate climate problems it is by the tepidity
       | of their vision. I think we have forgotten as a society truly
       | grand ambition. The Panama canal. The Hoover Dam. The dykes of
       | Nederlands. US post-war Apollo Project. The Channel Tunnel.
       | Imagine human action at scale, not as ungrateful entitled
       | protest, but coordinated and purposeful action in the face of
       | climate change. What would that look like? If we can't even
       | imagine it then we're truly lost.
       | 
       | In the shadow of the pandemic and Russo-Ukraine war I think we'll
       | have an opportunity, and to avoid unrest maybe a necessity, for
       | bold, crazy-ass projects whose ROI can just be written off to
       | posterity - what William James called the "Moral Equivalent of
       | War", not as mere National Service, but as Global Service.
       | Literally pay people salaries to fight climate change.
       | 
       | Of course that would require a strategy backed up by good
       | science. But realising that monetary economics and "markets"
       | isn't the only way out would be a good step. The Economist
       | article hints and plays with that, and then backs off.
        
         | mattcwilson wrote:
         | > what William James called the "Moral Equivalent of War", not
         | as mere National Service, but as Global Service. Literally pay
         | people salaries to fight climate change.
         | 
         | I see what you're going for with this, and I imagine I could be
         | persuaded to a more workable version of this. What's hanging me
         | up is - how do you avoid these salaried people being captured
         | by incentives to sustain their salary rather than be
         | incentivized to ultimately solve the problem?
         | 
         | We've tried this with the war on drugs, war on terror, war on
         | homelessness... haven't we? Is your suggestion different
         | somehow?
        
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