[HN Gopher] Arguing Without Warning
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Arguing Without Warning
        
       Author : Gadiguibou
       Score  : 71 points
       Date   : 2022-03-24 15:31 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (dynomight.net)
 (TXT) w3m dump (dynomight.net)
        
       | nathell wrote:
       | > Here's one such case: Say someone wrote something. You think
       | they're wrong, so you write a manifesto arguing that they're
       | wrong.
       | 
       | Whoa, whoa, hold your horses. Pause right there.
       | 
       | How does that "so" conjunction work? Given that you think they're
       | wrong, why would you want to write a manifesto arguing that
       | they're wrong? What's your motivation behind it?
       | 
       | There can be a plethora of possible motivations, all of them
       | valid. Just to name a few:
       | 
       | - The original statement is in direct conflict with your world
       | view. Because it's being read and shared, you want to write a
       | counterpiece because you, too, wish to be heard.
       | 
       | - You believe that the original statement represents a belief
       | that's factually incorrect, so you want to write a corrigendum
       | because you believe that policies based on false premises are
       | bound to lead astray.
       | 
       | - The original statement is written in a way that touches you
       | emotionally. Perhaps it disparages a part of the world that's
       | important to you. You want to respond in defense of that part.
       | 
       | - You don't find the matter particularly important, but you see
       | an omission in the original statement's reasoning that you think
       | you can amend. You write a supplementary response to improve your
       | (and hopefully others') understanding of the problem at hand.
       | 
       | - You just have that irresistible urge originating $GOD knows
       | where, that you have no better name for than "xkcd #386".
       | 
       | Depending on the circumstances, you may or may not want to follow
       | the various norms that Dynomight mentions in their article. But I
       | think it's of paramount importance to be self-aware of our own
       | motivations. It also helps to be explicit about them.
        
       | a_shovel wrote:
       | > _We tend to criticize things that we think are_ almost _right,
       | so close to right that we're worried other people will accept
       | them._
       | 
       | > _This is a compliment. If someone criticizes something you
       | wrote, you should feel gratified that you were "right enough" to
       | be worth arguing with._
       | 
       | This is the logic of internet trolls. I'm right, and if you
       | disagree, that proves I'm right, and if you fully debunk my
       | argument, that means you're desperate to keep people from
       | believing me, which, again, proves I'm right.
       | 
       | I don't know if you've heard, but people will accept a lot of
       | arguments that aren't anywhere near to right, because it appeals
       | to their preconceptions, or it would be convenient to their goals
       | if it were right, or their friend said it was good, or a million
       | other reasons.
        
         | PuppyTailWags wrote:
         | I personally never understood this logic of "trying to disprove
         | me means I'm right". Where does it come from?
        
       | paulpauper wrote:
       | >Second, the critiques themselves often have serious flaws, and
       | then those have serious flaws, and it sort of goes on forever. I
       | find this aspect of reality very frustrating, but most
       | discussions seem to be an infinite regress carried on until
       | someone gets exhausted and leaves.
       | 
       | There are two types of criticisms: criticism out of disagreement
       | with the thesis, or a criticism that undermines the reasoning or
       | conclusion of the thesis itself. The latter is much worse. Good
       | journalists and writers try to keep the second to a minimum as it
       | can come at a major cost to credibility.
        
       | kqr wrote:
       | Counter-argument, written without informing the author: the risk
       | of arguing without talking to the thesisholder is that you don't
       | work with the iron man version of the thesis.
       | 
       | And straw man debate is a type of intellectual bullshit we have
       | too much of already.
       | 
       | (So why am I engaging in this type of intellectual bullshit by
       | writing this comment? Sometimes when I'm very tired and don't
       | have energy to do more useful things like read a book I get a
       | little kick out of trying to state arguments concisely and get
       | little tokens of appreciation in the form of upvotes from fellow
       | hackers.
       | 
       | These tokens are less likely in a drawn-out argument, even if it
       | becomes intellectually more honest. So... I blame the system!)
        
         | hirundo wrote:
         | I made a comment here about a book the other day and the author
         | responded. I found that I was more fair, thoughtful and neutral
         | when I replied to him than when I made the original comment.
         | This isn't always the case but I think that personal
         | interaction with the creator tends to make criticism more
         | measured and humane.
        
         | civilized wrote:
         | > Counter-argument, written without informing the author: the
         | risk of arguing without talking to the thesisholder is that you
         | don't work with the iron man version of the thesis.
         | 
         | Or, you criticize the thesis as honestly as you can with the
         | information the author provided, the author responds with their
         | steel man version, and you publicly go back and forth until
         | clarity is achieved.
         | 
         | A public cycle of criticism based on a good-faith
         | misunderstanding is itself useful, as it puts on display the
         | disconnect between what an author thinks they are saying and
         | what their words actually communicate to the public.
        
           | titzer wrote:
           | > A public cycle of criticism
           | 
           | Sure. But conversations take time, and always require shared
           | background understanding. A some point, you can't let every
           | conversation devolve into rebuilding the foundations of
           | mathematics from axioms.
           | 
           | Authors have a responsibility to explain their ideas to a
           | reader with a "reasonable" background of shared knowledge. If
           | a long dialog ensues that reveals that reasonable shared
           | background is neither reasonable nor shared, then great. But
           | if the dialog devolves into a back-and-forth with obstinate
           | readers who both refuse to enter into shared background
           | understanding (e.g. not putting in any work, by not doing
           | suggested background research or flat out disagreeing on
           | basic premises like matter is made of atoms, etc) and
           | simultaneously have really strong opinions, then _everything_
           | gets derailed.
           | 
           | So critics do have some responsibility to know what they are
           | talking about as well.
        
             | civilized wrote:
             | This is true whether or not the conversation is public, so
             | somewhat orthogonal to the topic at hand.
        
       | incomingpain wrote:
       | >There's just isn't enough checking and counter-arguing, full
       | stop.
       | 
       | Sure but why? Lets focus on politics as it's at the centre of all
       | this.
       | 
       | The usual or normal stake in society is virtually no discussion
       | about politics. Once every few years you pick a representative
       | and then you can ignore politics because you can't change
       | anything. You ought to be talking about that local sports team or
       | that new tv show. This changed in recent years, I'm not really
       | familiar with this ever happening before. Politics is beyond
       | represented in common discussion today but you CANNOT argue. Dont
       | dare take a side or else you get labelled an *ist.
       | 
       | You will also notice that all thought commanders in the field of
       | politics are either comedians or lawyers; while the actual
       | politicians tend to be lawyers or celebrities. None of those 3
       | groups are allowed to speak their mind or argue.
       | 
       | The battlefield of thought is where this isn't true. You can find
       | this battleground where the comedians and lawyers interview.
       | 
       | The prevailing theory also has the blame on the "STEM" movement
       | in that highly qualified people left social sciences toward STEM
       | leaving a huge talent gap in the social sciences. In addition to
       | the reality of social media utterly destroying mainstream media.
       | Just look at the fall of CNN to political activists.
       | 
       | What does matter is that we have a new hyper awareness of
       | politics. The left wing right wing false dichotomy has collapsed.
       | Why is it the universities used to be for free speech and are now
       | certainly not?
       | 
       | It's also super important to notice how unsuccessful major
       | protests have been. BLM, who literally represent something
       | clearly broken, very clearly the USA should fix their objective
       | racist and brutal police force. The USA absolutely needs to fix
       | the multitude of problems along these lines. However they have
       | received absolutely no fix. They have had major protests and
       | riots all over and nobody at all in government is willing to fix
       | it. You're not allowed to argue or even discuss this.
       | 
       | However, if you try to argue or point any of this out. You become
       | a nazi or racist or whatever ist they decide upon.
       | 
       | Hopefully you can see why arguing has become impossible. It's not
       | just politics, but politics is the center. Race, Gender, Drugs,
       | environmentalism, guns, etc. Tons of things you are simply not
       | allowed to argue about.
       | 
       | OP knows this as well which is why he discusses Watermelons. He
       | actively goes out of his way to discuss something that nobody
       | discusses because it's the only way to avoid hitting a subject
       | you're not allowed to discuss. He could have discussed how
       | everyone in Toronto lives in an igloo.
       | 
       | Why is this happening? One side of politics has decided that
       | society is on the brink of collapse if not extinction. This is a
       | matter of life or death.
       | 
       | Unfortunately, I made a huge mistake in this post. I argued.
        
         | PuppyTailWags wrote:
         | > The usual or normal stake in society is virtually no
         | discussion about politics. Once every few years you pick a
         | representative and then you can ignore politics because you
         | can't change anything. You ought to be talking about that local
         | sports team or that new tv show. This changed in recent years,
         | I'm not really familiar with this ever happening before.
         | 
         | I don't know at what point your depiction of "virtually no
         | discussion about politics" ever "usual or normal". In my
         | parents' lifetime we had political fights around interracial
         | marriage, AIDS, and racial integration-- and that's just in the
         | country I was born in. In the country they were born in, there
         | was so much politics it became a massive civil conflict and
         | they had to flee for their lives. In their grandparents' time
         | there was already civil war and one of my grandparents was a
         | POW, so I bet that was plenty of discussion too.
        
           | incomingpain wrote:
           | >I don't know at what point your depiction of "virtually no
           | discussion about politics" ever "usual or normal"
           | 
           | The average person does not talk politics in normal
           | conversation. The conversation ought to be how terrible the
           | toronto maple laughs are doing. Or book of boba fett or new
           | obiwan mini series. So many different subjects, politics
           | rarely become a subject let alone dominate like it is doing
           | today.
           | 
           | >In my parents' lifetime we had political fights around
           | interracial marriage, AIDS, and racial integration-- and
           | that's just in the country I was born in.
           | 
           | Sure you are always going to have hot topics.
           | 
           | I'm curious, in normal conversation do you always talk about
           | the political hot topics? You dont particularly care about
           | $localsportsteam or whatever?
           | 
           | >In the country they were born in, there was so much politics
           | it became a massive civil conflict and they had to flee for
           | their lives.
           | 
           | Oh yes, that's precisely what's coming. Kind of the point I
           | was alluding to.
           | 
           | > In their grandparents' time there was already civil war and
           | one of my grandparents was a POW, so I bet that was plenty of
           | discussion too.
           | 
           | Totally agree. I think we are in agreement here. Obviously I
           | didn't spell it out to this extent.
        
             | PuppyTailWags wrote:
             | > I'm curious, in normal conversation do you always talk
             | about the political hot topics?
             | 
             | Actually yeah, I keep track of my parents' immigration
             | process, which is a political hot topic because they come
             | from a non-european country and therefore their immigration
             | status is always at risk here.
        
         | fleddr wrote:
         | From a European perspective: clearly, the US has a polarization
         | problem. It has always had it due to the two party system but
         | it's been getting exponentially worse. Or, alternatively, maybe
         | the silent majority isn't necessarily more divided, instead the
         | extreme ends are disproportionately promoted in media and
         | social media, since outrage sells and reasonable people are
         | boring. Reasonable people have nowhere to go, they have to pick
         | one of the two types of crazy.
         | 
         | It's a terrible thing to watch as both people and issues are
         | reduced down to binary options.
         | 
         | For example, I'd argue that the "Trumpist" white working class
         | person in the Midwest has a lot in common with the black
         | suburban working class person. These are now worlds apart, at
         | times enemies even, but they share a lot of issues. Both
         | groups, which I argue to be a single group, struggle to get a
         | livable wage, access to education and healthcare, and so on.
         | Somehow, society has sorted these groups into good and bad
         | people, where good and bad change based on perspective.
         | 
         | Same for complicated divisive issues. Most people, yes even
         | conservatives, would agree that racism is bad. But that doesn't
         | necessarily mean that they support every method to combat it,
         | like "defund the police", reparations, equity policy, and many
         | other policies not at all related to the original problem. But
         | you can't discuss any of the points or plans intelligently.
         | You're all-in with every idea, including bad ones, or you're
         | out, and thus a racist.
         | 
         | A system like this leaves only one option: silence.
         | 
         | In contrast, the political system in my country, the
         | Netherlands. It's a coalition country where the ruling
         | government consists of 3-4 parties to form a majority. So that
         | means that the norm is that everything is multi-partisan. You
         | are forced to work together or you will not rule. Likewise, you
         | can't destroy or smear the other in a campaign because you'll
         | meet them again at the formation table.
         | 
         | In a system like this, consensus is the norm, and extremism has
         | no chance, they will never rule. This has its effect on people,
         | as most people are centrists with a notch to the left or right.
         | 
         | My group of friends is politically all over the map. Nobody
         | takes issue with deviations in opinions, there's no hard or
         | clear line to sort people into. There's also no left-right
         | consistency. I know progressive people that are conservative
         | regarding immigration and I know conservative people that are
         | progressive environmentalists.
         | 
         | Sorting people into left-right, good-bad, conservative-democrat
         | is a crime. An insult to humanity. Because the really sad thing
         | is most political needs are universal. The split is entirely
         | artificial.
        
       | ineptech wrote:
       | There's more than one kind of argument and the author's elision
       | of that makes this kind of muddled:
       | 
       | * "You vs Me" vs "Us vs the problem". In the latter, there's an
       | objective Correct answer and each party would prefer to find it
       | than to "win" the debate; in the former, the parties would rather
       | "win" than discover new information that would change their mind.
       | The article assumes that internet debates are of the latter
       | variety, while in my experience they are 99% the former.
       | 
       | * With/without audience. Without an audience, you are trying to
       | convince the person you're arguing with, which forces you to
       | address their strongest points; with an audience, you (usually)
       | have no real hope of budging the person you're talking to, and
       | are only interested in persuading some hypothetical listener, so
       | you are incentivized to ignore their strongest points and pounce
       | on the weakest ones. Again, the essay is written as if internet
       | debaters are speaking to each other, when in reality they are
       | overwhelmingly talking past each other and hoping to persuade the
       | audience.
       | 
       | Overall this reads like someone pontificating on whether it is
       | politer in a bar fight to sucker-punch with the right or left
       | hand. Perhaps of interest but not likely to affect any actual bar
       | fights.
        
         | rilezg wrote:
         | The blogger does say the norms they propose are for 'the
         | genteel corridors of long-form internet writing', which, as you
         | say, make up a tiny portion of all 'internet debates'. This
         | sort of writing is always 'with audience', and it is telling
         | that the word 'glory' appears twice in the blog-post.
         | 
         | I think the blogger's missing forest is that it is nigh
         | impossible to have an 'us vs the problem' debate unless 'you
         | and me' both agree on the assumptions that frame the problem.
         | If we do not first root out and address incongruous
         | assumptions, we will forever talk past each other, no matter
         | how many brass tacks we jump on, even if it seems to bystanders
         | that we both speak the same language.
         | 
         | As an aside, I believe that a person's assumptions/beliefs are
         | inseparable from who that person is (you are what you eat). For
         | me, it is silly to critique an idea without much consideration
         | about what person/people communicated that idea and why they
         | believe it (assuming they do). I often find that the truth is
         | not as cut and dry as I assumed. If your goal is 'internet
         | glory', then sure, that is a waste of time. You are better off
         | gaming engagement algorithms. But, if I may ride a high horse,
         | mutual understanding is a sweeter nectar.
        
       | stickfigure wrote:
       | The rationalist community[1] has a pattern for this. Make a
       | public post with the title _Contra <PersonX> on <Subject PersonX
       | Has Written About>_. Write out your debate arguments in public,
       | but be generous around the uncertain boundaries of the argument.
       | Invite the original author (or others) to steelman the position:
       | "X is arguing for Y, but that seems to contradict Z. If I've
       | misunderstood, please correct me." Always link to good rebuttals
       | from your original post.
       | 
       | From good-natured participants, the dueling blog posts format can
       | be delightful to read.
       | 
       | [1] - I first noticed it in Scott Alexander's Slate Star Codex,
       | but I've seen many others use this pattern since.
        
         | paulpauper wrote:
         | Afik, only Scott any maybe one of two other bloggers does this.
         | It's so rare. Most bloggers write for major publications and do
         | not see incoming traffic stats, nor do they care all that much
         | what others say.
        
           | jimbokun wrote:
           | Andrew Sullivan always publishes dissents responding to his
           | previous arguments on his Substack. And sometimes makes
           | clarifying comments or counter arguments engaging with the
           | criticism. Or sometimes just accepts the correction.
           | 
           | It's always one of the best parts of what he publishes.
        
       | khafra wrote:
       | The trouble is that disagreeing with someone always has at least
       | two effects: Changing viewers' confidence in the original claims,
       | and taking some of the status of the original claimant as a
       | person who makes correct claims.
       | 
       | It would be nice if human communication had some sort of
       | predicate whereby you could remove the second effect from your
       | argument. But AFAIK it depends almost entirely on trusting the
       | audience to decouple the argument from the arguer, which only a
       | very few audiences can be trusted to do.
        
       | titzer wrote:
       | I feel like this entire article was written without the ability
       | to conceive of another way of thinking or that there are _other
       | people_ who think differently than you. They are _entirely_
       | optimizing for their own ability to mouth off an opinion without
       | doing any hard work. For the author, _maybe it 's great_ if
       | people go off with half-cocked, poorly-researched, and
       | fundamentally misguided criticisms that stem from complete
       | misunderstandings. But for me, it annoys me when people write
       | long missives about some stuff they barely understand but feel
       | good to them. They usually aren't trying to understand, they
       | aren't trying to help other people understand, and certainly
       | aren't helping out the authors whom they are criticizing.
       | 
       | Instead, people who do this are just shoveling more confusion,
       | reinforcing tribal lines in some cases, and frankly, muddying the
       | waters.
       | 
       | I'll give an example. Relativity. There is absolutely no doubt in
       | the physics community that Relativity is a.) a thing b.) well-
       | understood mathematically c.) explains physical reality
       | remarkably well, being supported by vast amounts of evidence.
       | _And yet_ general relativity is not yet unified with quantum
       | theory.
       | 
       | Do we need more cranks who a.) do not understand the underlying
       | mathematics and b.) do not understand what the fundamental
       | shortcoming is, _in detail_ , firing off articles "criticizing"
       | it? Hells no. These types of things should be debated by
       | physicists and mathematicians who _do_ actually thoroughly
       | understand these things. Physics journals won 't suffer amateur
       | hour, and they shouldn't. Physics journals, and all scientific
       | publishing venues, subject articles to review that try to elevate
       | the level of discourse by checking and re-checking claims.
       | 
       | But the internet is not journals, sure. It's a free-for-all. It
       | has elevated so many random voices to a level of authority that
       | it is not possible to weed through claims at speed; cranks make
       | themselves look like experts. An experts understate their own
       | confidence. The internet is a massive Dunning-Krueger melting
       | pot.
       | 
       | I will absolutely push back on the idea that the problem we have
       | right now is that the expectations are too high. You mean you
       | have to understand what a person is saying, _maybe even talking
       | to the person first_ , before you launch a volley of utter
       | nonsense at them? The humanity.
        
         | deadbeeves wrote:
         | >You mean you have to understand what a person is saying, maybe
         | even talking to the person first, before you launch a volley of
         | utter nonsense at them?
         | 
         | But you yourself recognize that the cranks have no qualms doing
         | that, while the experts understate their expertise. The cranks
         | are cranks; they're not going to take the effort to understand
         | something thoroughly before responding to it, because then they
         | wouldn't be cranks anymore. The only alternative is for
         | _everyone_ to shout as loud as they can about what an idiot
         | Steve is for saying that stupid thing he did. Modesty has no
         | place on the Internet. Fire on all cylinders and let Steve
         | defend himself if he wants to.
        
         | paulpauper wrote:
         | >But for me, it annoys me when people write long missives about
         | some stuff they barely understand but feel good to them. They
         | usually aren't trying to understand, they aren't trying to help
         | other people understand, and certainly aren't helping out the
         | authors whom they are criticizing.
         | 
         | This usually happens when people make a snap judgment based off
         | the title and maybe the first few sentences of an article
         | without reading further.
        
         | rcoveson wrote:
         | The author seems to want more of this[0] kind of high-quality
         | refutation. Here's another, this time a blog post[1] and a
         | rebuttal[2]. Very different examples, one in medical science
         | and the other just blogosphere musings, but both are public
         | counters to public originals, rather than direct communications
         | with the original's authors.
         | 
         | That said, I'm not clear on why the author thinks that we're at
         | a "turning point" in deciding whether it's socially acceptable
         | to just publish an argument against something else that was
         | published. Maybe in the scientific community that's a strict
         | norm? It certainly doesn't seem to be in the blogging
         | community.
         | 
         | Maybe the author is worried that good arguments are lost in the
         | semi-private twitter scuffle with the original authors of
         | papers and articles? Maybe they hope that people will respond
         | to broadcasted arguments intended for the general public with
         | counter-arguments that are also broadcasted, instead of
         | directed? I don't know. It feels like I'm missing the article's
         | "prompt".
         | 
         | 0. https://kylesheldrick.blogspot.com/2022/03/evidence-of-
         | fabri...
         | 
         | 1. https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/why-we-stopped-making-
         | einste...
         | 
         | 2. https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/contra-hoel-on-
         | aristoc...
        
       | nonrandomstring wrote:
       | I generally favour the Rogerian approach of always looking for
       | the most generous interpretation of common goals and values that
       | night be separated by language, assumptions or unfortunate
       | experiences that have become crystalised into generalised
       | anecdotes. Other thinkers who've suggested similar manners to
       | Rogers are Jurgen Habermas and Paulo Freire. These boil down to:
       | 
       | - Be truthful
       | 
       | - Use pragmatic epistemology, don't over-intellectualise
       | 
       | - Expect and offer sincerity
       | 
       | - Aim for universalisation/inclusive and non-self-contradiction
       | 
       | - Always assume good faith
       | 
       | - Use concrete rather than abstract statements
       | 
       | - Good, careful humour, but don't soften hard truths
       | 
       | - Make contributions relevant and timely
       | 
       | - Beware self-deception and rationalisation
       | 
       | - Use the minimum facts necessary to make any point
       | 
       | I think if one keeps these in mind, it's always okay to offer
       | arguments without warning, seeking permission, treading on
       | eggshells or feeling the need to credentialise or excessively
       | qualify a response.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | JadeNB wrote:
       | > Go find any popular article that makes factual claims. Then,
       | read comments about it on some high-quality forum. Almost always,
       | you will see comments that are deeply problematic for the
       | original thesis.
       | 
       | > How much should these comments decrease your confidence in the
       | original article? I claim: Not much, at least on average.
       | 
       | > First, if everything you read has devastating criticisms, you
       | should expect them to exist.
       | 
       | Without explicitly commenting on the world in which we live, it
       | seems to me that all the hypotheses are consistent with a world
       | of low-quality discourse, in which many of the factual claims we
       | encounter in popular articles are wrong (in possibly minor, but
       | possibly major, ways). You should always evaluate your sources,
       | to be sure--and the value of an anonymous comment on even a high-
       | quality forum is fairly low--but a factual refutation of a
       | factual claim should, I think, be given very _high_ weight, even
       | if most such claims have such refutations.
       | 
       | (The author seems further on to be pointing out perhaps the
       | futility of refuting a 'headline point' when the headline will be
       | fleshed out in the body. With that I can more easily agree. Of
       | course, as is the way of such things, I was more eager to make my
       | slightly contrary point than to finish reading the essay.)
        
       | paulpauper wrote:
       | _Why? Caplan suggests it's because no one believes quantitative
       | social science is meaningful. Maybe, but I suspect the
       | explanation is simpler: There's not much glory in checking
       | someone else's work._
       | 
       | This is probably wrong. There is tons of glory in checking
       | someone's work and finding a mistake. Look at all the controversy
       | and major media coverage over the the Reinhart and Rogoff paper,
       | which was undermined by some majors data collection errors that
       | were later pointed out. This was a major deal at the time.
       | 
       | Most people probably already expected Caplan's thesis to be true
       | or took it for granted as true, so there was no compelling need
       | to check. People will only check if the the conclusion goes
       | against their assumptions or something commonly accepted to be
       | true. So a paper which claims to refute the premise of
       | Keynesianism is something that economists are probably going to
       | be be more inclined to check than a conclusion that affirms the
       | orthodoxy.
        
         | morelisp wrote:
         | > Look at all the controversy and major media coverage over the
         | the Reinhart and Rogoff paper, which was undermined by some
         | majors data collection errors that were later pointed out. This
         | was a major deal at the time.
         | 
         | HAP made a ton of noise (in specialist circles) certainly. But
         | was it a "major deal"? Was RR really "undermined"?
         | 
         | I see no major change in policy as a result, and popular wisdom
         | among the intelligent-but-lagging public, seems to _still_ that
         | public debt drags on growth. (RR has been near the front of my
         | mind this week as a CEO I know mentioned it and was totally
         | unaware it had been so completely  "undermined" a decade
         | prior.)
        
           | paulpauper wrote:
           | It does not need to see a policy change. Refuting a major
           | study and getting a lot of coverage for doing so, is a boost
           | one one's brand/CV.
        
       | avivo wrote:
       | A few issues with this:
       | 
       | > The mistake here is seeing a counter-argument as being against
       | a person, rather than as against a particular artifact. What
       | matters is what's out there.
       | 
       | This is not how it works in most of real life. There are
       | political impacts within a community or organization depending on
       | how an argument goes down. Potentially permanent schisms.
       | 
       | > So, if the critiques of an article find only "moderately bad
       | flaws", that often increases my trust because my prior was that
       | the flaws would be even worse. If the claim that some types of
       | watermelon taste bad to certain people at some times of the year
       | survives the skeptics, then that might be an above-average
       | outcome.
       | 
       | This is empirically not how most people operate.
       | 
       | > We need to design our norms around the unfortunate reality that
       | most people are not helpful when criticized.
       | 
       | No, design norms around getting the best possible world. That
       | unfortunate reality is only one of many factors to take into
       | account.
       | 
       | ---
       | 
       | I'll hold judgement on the conclusion overall; I think it may
       | make sense for arguments when nothing political is on the line
       | and everyone is a psuedorationlist. Beyond that...unsure.
        
       | teekert wrote:
       | "Say that for most articles you read, you go through this
       | process:
       | 
       | * You read it.
       | 
       | * You're convinced that it's true.
       | 
       | * You search for criticisms.
       | 
       | * They are devastating, so you no longer think the article is
       | true."
       | 
       | 9/10 times on HN and I love you all for it. (Well maybe a bit
       | less but I certainly have shared articles and read the HN
       | comments afterwards and come to regret sharing)
        
         | kqr wrote:
         | Be careful about stopping there. You can often find devastating
         | criticism of the criticism too!
         | 
         | I don't remember who -- maybe Scott Alexander -- brought this
         | up in the context of saying that maybe intelligent people don't
         | suffer enough from confirmation bias.
         | 
         | Intelligent people are so ready to drop their pre-existing
         | beliefs in the face of good arguments that what determines
         | their opinion in the end is not necessarily truth, but at which
         | point they stopped reading criticisms of criticisms of
         | criticisms of criticisms of the original thesis.
         | 
         | With a tiny bit more confirmation bias, intelligent people
         | might be slightly more inclined to stick with popular opinion,
         | and their accuracy might improve as a result.
        
           | teekert wrote:
           | Hmm, and what effect does being aware of this have?
        
           | zwegner wrote:
           | This maybe isn't what you're referring to, but here's an old
           | Scott Alexander post on this topic, "Epistemic Learned
           | Helplessness": https://web.archive.org/web/20170329000721/htt
           | p://squid314.l...
           | 
           | (using a web archive link since the current page tries to
           | force a login)
        
       | ashildr wrote:
       | 1) have a look at the beautiful dicussion on the "Mold effect".
       | Here's a pointer to begin:
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx2LEqTQT4E
       | 
       | 2) altruism exists
       | 
       | 3) if you briefly try to talk to the author you _may_ avoid
       | misunderstanding their idea and thus less time is wasted.
       | 
       | 3) being proven wrong is great. Being right is boring.
        
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