[HN Gopher] Deep learning on electronic medical records is doome...
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       Deep learning on electronic medical records is doomed to fail
        
       Author : brilee
       Score  : 207 points
       Date   : 2022-03-22 13:48 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.moderndescartes.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.moderndescartes.com)
        
       | nikanj wrote:
       | But not before a lot of companies make tons of money by promising
       | deep learning will cut healthcare costs by percentage points!
        
       | BurningFrog wrote:
       | This is very specific to the US medical system.
       | 
       | Perhaps things are better in some of the many other health care
       | systems around the world.
        
         | BolexNOLA wrote:
         | You know, I have never really given EMR's in other countries
         | much thought and I'm now super curious how implementation has
         | gone, what some good examples are, etc.
        
           | AutumnCurtain wrote:
           | Epic expanded into the Nordics and their providers found it
           | disastrous on the whole, mostly because it's designed for the
           | US healthcare system and therefore cares almost exclusively
           | about billing, which is completely irrelevant for them. See
           | https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/06/epic-denmark-
           | healt...
        
         | sidlls wrote:
         | Maybe. Almost everyone follows the same standard (some version
         | of ICD, https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/icd/icd10.htm) of coding. If
         | it's much better outside the US I'd be surprised, though. The
         | standard is a mess of strange, super-specific things (e.g.
         | ICD10 code W56.52XA is "struck by other fish, initial
         | encounter") that aren't useful for any purpose, and in practice
         | is used mainly for billing (insurance or otherwise).
        
           | AutumnCurtain wrote:
           | I'm fond of W59.22XA, "struck by turtle - initial encounter"
           | aka the Aeschylus ICD code
        
             | 6yyyyyy wrote:
             | Y385X3A Terrorism involving nuclear weapons, terrorist
             | injured, initial encounter
        
       | methehack wrote:
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carte_Vitale
       | 
       | France's system is universal and private (private docs,
       | insurance, and reference pricing -- a service has a single fee
       | across coherently regulated payers). They have had a standardized
       | medical record for 20+ years. One system and one medical record
       | for everyone. WHO ranked #1 healthcare in the world (to US ~40th)
       | at 1/2 the cost per capita of US healthcare. This is catastrophic
       | legislative failure for a problem largely solved by lots of other
       | people around the world.
       | 
       | The legislative failure has created vast administrative overhead
       | (10, or more, staff per doc at a hospital) and corrupt insurance
       | companies. When an insurance company has to pay a claim, they
       | call it a "medical loss" (they had the money and they lost it).
       | They make their money on poor service and deceit -- charging
       | wildly different prices for the same product where they can get
       | away with it). In France, an insurance company, by law, has to
       | pay a claim to a practice in a few days. Imagine the decreased
       | capital needs for running a medical practice or a hospital.
       | 
       | The hospitals are not blameless in all this, but the heart of it
       | is the payer system/s.
        
         | paulmd wrote:
         | as someone who worked in this area (not ML on records, but
         | aggregating and ingesting EHR/ELR data) the problem is not just
         | "the standardized record" but _getting providers and hospital
         | systems to use the record in standardized ways_.
         | 
         | HL7 and FHIR are sort of like XML or CSV - they're just formats
         | that define fields and delimiters. You can still emit HL7 or
         | FHIR that can't really be consumed by anything else, and
         | there's a huge amount of work to getting it "right". One of our
         | perennial projects was a validator tool to help onboard
         | facilities to produce data that was actually compliant with
         | state/CDC systems. Unsurprisingly, from memory (that wasn't
         | really my direct fief) basically every single system (from
         | memory it was something like 80% of attempts) failed their
         | first couple times and needed hand-holding to get it right.
         | 
         | https://fhirblog.com/2014/03/28/pictorial-representation-of-...
         | 
         | One of my projects was integrating a clinical recommendation
         | tool with various EHR systems. That project didn't really end
         | up going anywhere, but even just from the sample data being
         | used in the various sandboxes I could tell that it was gonna be
         | a massive slog actually getting it onto client systems, because
         | every single client system was coded differently and there was
         | different "quirks" to the data/etc. Fixing that wasn't really
         | my task, just dealing with it, but the point is that even if
         | you define a system that allows these relationships/etc to be
         | expressed, there's no guarantee that a client system is
         | outputting well-formed, properly normalized/denormalized data.
         | It's rough.
         | 
         | And unfortunately it's 1000% a XKCD "there are 14 standards and
         | systems still can't intercommunicate, we need a 15th standard"
         | effect. There is already so, so much work mapping around
         | between the various editions of ICD, CPT (procedures), and
         | usually there are instance-specific (specific to the hospital
         | system usually) coding systems underneath that (since in many
         | cases eg CPT does not really convey enough information about
         | the exact specific procedure - it's enough for billing but not
         | enough for a radiologist to actually know what scan to perform
         | in a medical sense). And the existing coding systems are
         | already super generic and can express basically anything in
         | multiple ways, which just feeds into the "it's possible to emit
         | valid records that nobody else can really consume" problem.
        
         | clairity wrote:
         | you're talking about singularized/centralized electronic
         | medical records as if it will solve all the ills of the
         | healthcare industry, especially the rampant corruption, but it
         | certainly won't, and certainly isn't the reason for the
         | differences with french healthcare. sunshine can only go so
         | far. the root problem of healthcare, as with many american
         | industries (e.g., education), is the lack of competition and
         | (uncaptured) regulatory function.
         | 
         | and as with many gigantic, mult-faceted problems like this,
         | band-aid solutions like centralizing medical records will do
         | nothing (e.g., banning plastic bags) but distract us from the
         | core hard problem. we need medical insurance, regulatory
         | agencies, emergency services, care providers, medical training,
         | pharma, medical devices, and a whole host of other interlocked
         | industries to be subject to the pressures of a fair competitive
         | environment, and we need to allow them to fail (and even
         | punished) without that being life/career destroying (a crucial
         | precept of our bankruptcy laws, incidentally).
         | 
         | spiraling costs and flagging care are a result of systemic rot,
         | and it needs systemic solutions.
        
           | gumby wrote:
           | I read metehack's comment completely the opposite way: that a
           | working records system is part of a functioning medical
           | system and a consequence of a decision to have such a system.
           | 
           | In other words I interpreted the comment as making the point
           | you make.
           | 
           | Having benefited from the French medical system (and having
           | it treat my dad when he was visiting us) it's really quite
           | good. People in the US (where I live) would laugh if they
           | heard the way French people complain about their health care
           | system: it's a dream by comparison. French complaints are
           | like an American complaining that there is "too much room"
        
             | clairity wrote:
             | i mean, they focused on medical records as the core
             | difference and referenced metrics to support that position.
             | 
             | it's true that functioning medical records could be a
             | (small) part of an overall better and more efficient
             | medical system, but it was positioned as the core solution
             | that would unlock a better system overall. perhaps they had
             | a different positioning in mind, but that wasn't the
             | argument presented.
        
         | methehack wrote:
         | Replying to my own post, but to the OP's point -- we can't
         | research very well on US healthcare data in aggregate because
         | it is so error prone and inexact to aggregate it. Data
         | scientists should imagine what we could do with 20 years of la
         | carte vitale data...or better of data in a regulated medical
         | record format that was designed to be researched in aggregate.
         | That's the second order failure here.
        
         | mumblemumble wrote:
         | There's actually been a pretty good report by the President's
         | Council of Advisors on Science and Technology on this subject a
         | while back:
         | 
         | https://www.healthit.gov/sites/default/files/pcast-health-it...
         | 
         | It did not place the blame on insurance companies. Which I
         | think is correct. Insurance companies affect billing, but they
         | do _not_ drive health care records management. That 's driven
         | by an entirely different set of companies such as Epic and
         | Meditech.
         | 
         | And the poor state of EHR in the USA is not _entirely_ their
         | fault, either. A lot of what went down is that universal
         | standardization was not a major part of the requirements when
         | the US government started requiring health IT. So health care
         | providers decided to favor preserving their existing policies
         | and procedures, which meant choosing extremely configurable EHR
         | systems that allowed them to computerize their old paper-based
         | systems with minimal modification. Since easy computer
         | interoperability was never a design goal of those paper-based
         | systems, it was not inherited by the EHR systems they grew
         | into, either.
         | 
         | This creates a situation where even two Epic customers, despite
         | being on the same EHR platform, are still hard-pressed to
         | directly transfer records between their systems, and are as
         | likely as not to still just fax or email each other printouts
         | because it's easier.
         | 
         | And standardizing and perfecting insurance and billing would do
         | nothing to fix this situation. The two systems are likely to be
         | connected, but they are not the same thing.
        
         | robbiemitchell wrote:
         | > They make their money on poor service and deceit -- charging
         | wildly different prices for the same product where they can get
         | away with it
         | 
         | This is the same thing medical providers and drug companies do.
         | It's price discrimination all the way down.
         | 
         | I often what would happen if medical providers (doctors, drugs,
         | etc.) were REQUIRED to have standard rates published that
         | didn't fluctuate by insurance network or type of insurance
         | plan.
        
           | shigawire wrote:
           | Hospitals would not get paid enough and many would go broke.
           | 
           | Now if you coupled this with a single payer then it could
           | work.
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | That is simply false and misinformation. A "loss" is just a
         | technical term in the insurance industry generally. It doesn't
         | mean that a medical insurer had money and then lost it. The
         | Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) imposed a minimum 80% medical
         | loss ratio.
         | 
         | On most policies the "insurance" companies aren't even
         | providing insurance any more. They simply act as third-party
         | administrators for self insured employers. So the insurance
         | companies have no financial incentive to deny claims. In most
         | cases where claim payment is delayed or denied it's because the
         | provider organization failed to follow the rules for claim
         | coding and attachments.
        
         | labcomputer wrote:
         | > They make their money on poor service and deceit -- charging
         | wildly different prices for the same product where they can get
         | away with it).
         | 
         | You have that backward. _Hospitals_ and _doctors_ charge wildly
         | different prices for the same product when they can get away
         | with it. That 's why you can... wink, wink, nudge, nudge... pay
         | a lower price in cash. Because the hospital knows a cash price
         | means that you are paying the bill directly, not a rich
         | insurance company. In economic terms, hospitals have economic
         | power to set prices.
         | 
         | The elephant in the room is that medical doctors in the United
         | States earn between about 2x and 4x (depending on specialty)
         | more than medical doctors in France or England. Yes, two to
         | four _times_ as much. Where, exactly, do you suppose that extra
         | income comes from? And that 's when they're honest--medical
         | claims fraud is a major issue.
         | 
         | You know those "this is not a bill" explanations of benefits
         | you receive when you go to the doctor? Well... it turns out
         | that a _fantastic_ lead for finding medical claims fraud is
         | when a member phones their insurance company and asks  "Hey, I
         | don't remember this... why does it say ____?"
         | 
         | Removing insurance companies from the equation will not
         | radically change the landscape. The ACA set a lower bound on
         | the medical loss ratio at 80%. That is, insurance companies
         | must pay out in claims at least 80% of what they charge in
         | premiums. Yes, some of that 20% is profit, but some is also
         | intrinsic overhead for storing medical records, validating
         | claims, etc. Do you think AWS lets France store medical records
         | for free?
         | 
         | So France pays 50% as much as the US. Let's say we take out
         | insurance companies and pretend that you can administer claims
         | with 0 overhead in fairy-tale land. Now USians pay 80% as much.
         | 
         |  _Where did the other 30% go?_
         | 
         | At worst, insurance companies are a second-order effect. The
         | first order effects are that we pay too much for doctors
         | (because the AMA is a cartel that limits access to medical
         | school) and too much for drugs. Just look at how forcefully
         | doctors groups have pushed back at state attempts to expand the
         | scope of work for PAs and NPs (whose licensing is not under the
         | thumb of doctors, and thus can't be restricted in the same
         | way).
        
           | paulmd wrote:
           | Doctors have to be paid a shitload in the US because they
           | come out of college with an average of $250k in student loan
           | debt (for GPs, specialists are higher). Those other countries
           | that pay doctors a half or a quarter of US salaries will
           | generally be somewhere between "very small costs", "no
           | costs", or "actually paying students to attend", leaning
           | towards the latter two, so doctors don't graduate with a
           | home-mortgage worth of debt.
           | 
           | However, a lot of people in the US are morally opposed to
           | "giving someone else a free ride", you can see the current
           | hubbub around student debt cancellation. And doctors heavily
           | fall towards the higher-income side of the scale, so they are
           | precisely the kinds of people that everyone points to as
           | being undeserving of student debt relief.
           | 
           | It is what it is, Americans are a selfish (ahem, libertarians
           | would say self-interested) people, but you can't make this
           | cost go away. People may not explicitly state it, but their
           | preferences are obvious, they would rather pay 4x the amount
           | to a private actor than have 1x the cost in taxes, same as
           | the rest of the problems with our health care system. People
           | are more worried about micromanaging what everyone "deserves"
           | than overall cost efficiency, and they vote accordingly.
           | 
           | It's rather sad, in a way, that Americans can't grasp that
           | having a more highly educated, more skilled society benefits
           | everyone in the long run. Those people go on to pay taxes,
           | and educated people will contribute a lot more in taxes over
           | their lifespan than they cost in education, it's a long term
           | financial _benefit_ , but people _abhor_ the idea of someone
           | getting  "a free ride", despite it being the most financially
           | vulnerable and unstable portion of people's adult lives. It's
           | just straight-up "I chose to be a plumber, why should I have
           | to pay for some fancy doctor's education!?".
        
         | yung234 wrote:
         | A rational strategy would be for America to fund ML medical
         | research in France.
        
         | pjc50 wrote:
         | > The legislative failure has created vast administrative
         | overhead (10, or more, staff per doc at a hospital) and corrupt
         | insurance companies.
         | 
         | Other way round: the corrupt insurance companies have created
         | legislative failure, through entirely legal bribery and
         | entirely legal lying to legislators and the public.
         | 
         | Mind you, the public are hardly blameless in this, given that
         | detailed careful policy wonkery is boring and yelling about
         | grand conspiracies is far more exciting, many have chosen to
         | indulge in the latter.
        
       | RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote:
       | > The answer turns out to be rather mundane. Pap smears are not
       | recommended for women older than 65, and heart failure onset is
       | typically around age 65. The pap smear just turns out to be a
       | really good age bucketing signal to the model.
       | 
       | Pap smears are also a really good sex bucketing signal, and there
       | are lots of diseases that are more prevalent in one sex, so I
       | would expect Pap smears to be correlated and anti-correlated with
       | a lot of other diseases as well.
        
       | wistlo wrote:
       | A rule encompassing "pap smear" and "over 65" data fields is
       | encoded right here in the OP comment. Aren't these kinds of rules
       | and relationships what "deep learning" is supposed to suss out,
       | automatically and without intervention?
       | 
       | If not, I wouldn't call it "deep".
        
       | tomlue wrote:
       | Spurious correlations are common in medical models not
       | idiosyncratic like in other fields.
       | 
       | Which makes it hard to use models in clinics.
       | 
       | Doctors are smart about this. Every providier we spoke to about
       | survival models based on biomarker data did not want supervised
       | learning models. The explainability, trust, authorization just
       | aren't there and the risk of misuse is too high.
       | 
       | For now, research is a better use case, but less commercial
       | funding.
       | 
       | It is not hopeless, but your basic LSTM is probably not going to
       | revolutionize medicine.
        
       | dekhn wrote:
       | There is something I've been developing over the years which I
       | call "Konerding's Empirical Observation #7": every attempt to
       | improve health care with technology in the US will only every
       | increase the cost while also decreasing the quality of service
       | (on average).
       | 
       | This goes hand in hand with Konerding's 3rd empirical
       | observation, which is that there is a never ending supply of
       | "machine learning geniuses" who are naive about how health care
       | works in the US, and spend some 20 years learning how hard it is
       | to actually do anything actionable with health care data.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | axg11 wrote:
       | The author is spot on - the current approach of applying ML to
       | flawed and inconsistent data is doomed. However, on the bright
       | side, I think they also highlight a possible path for data
       | scientists to bring value to healthcare. All of the examples of
       | relationships and correlations were spurious, but if you keep
       | digging you will eventually unearth interesting relationships. A
       | minority of these relationships will be useful for improving
       | hospital administration. Examining the relationships might not
       | necessarily improve health outcomes but there is a real chance to
       | make hospitals more efficient using data science.
        
       | Dan_- wrote:
       | Setting aside the sensationalist headline, the entire premise of
       | the article is flawed. It's a case of not even being wrong. Of
       | course you're going to get spurious results using poor data.
       | 
       | The author's attempt at using structured EMR data is the root
       | cause. We have found that structured data, which the author
       | attempted to use, is at best 35% accurate. Sure it's better than
       | claims, but it does not reach the level of quality necessary to
       | inform clinical decision-making. The reason for this is that
       | almost everything clinically relevant is captured in freeform
       | text fields--clinical notes. To build proper models from
       | information in EMRs, you have to start with processing the
       | narrative data, which is a hard problem.
       | 
       | Training models to interpret clinical notes requires clinical
       | expertise. Clinicians record facts differently in different
       | locations, and there are many different ways to say the same
       | things, and sometimes they skip underlying facts because some
       | other fact implies the rest. Different specialties record things
       | differently too. You really cannot just throw some data into a
       | notebook and hope it works. Even with clinician input, we still
       | find that high quality results require ensemble models with
       | multiple techniques; plain NLP doesn't work either.
       | 
       | Take for example, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), the
       | leading cause of liver failure requiring liver transplant. NASH
       | is a complication of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, in which
       | your liver has unusually large deposits of fat. NAFLD is not
       | coded in structured data. To identify it from unstructured data,
       | you have to extract concepts related to liver cancer, pre-
       | diabetes, alcohol use, liver fibrosis, cirrhosis, jaundice,
       | fatigue, and loss of appetite. To make a long story short, you
       | cannot do these things using structured data or naive NLP
       | approaches. F1 is zero.
       | 
       | So maybe his point, "Data encodes clinical expertise" is
       | worthwhile, but the rest of the article...not so much.
       | 
       | Source: My company, Verantos https://verantos.com , specializes
       | in the generation of high-validity evidence from data we abstract
       | from EHRs using machine techniques.
        
         | hyperbovine wrote:
         | "This problem is at least as hard as solving NLP" strikes me as
         | supporting the author's claim, not refuting it.
        
       | elij wrote:
       | I agree with all points with respect to static EMRs including NLP
       | efforts.
       | 
       | The cadence, uniformity and alignment of event stores to
       | underlying pathways does pose an opportunity (but there's so
       | little research and I suspect Brian didn't have access to this
       | space). An EMR is a projection/point in time snapsot of these
       | events (basically API calls). There's also inherent natural
       | labels because inferences are evaluated against an actual
       | pathway.
       | 
       | Specifically speaking about intra-episodic inferences --
       | longitudinal predictions (over several episodes -- or a patient
       | life time) becomes wildly inaccurate. There's a lot of research
       | to demonstrate this no matter which models are used.
        
       | suifbwish wrote:
       | Where deep learning will prevail in medical is in predictive
       | medicine. When it finally becomes common to have personal genomic
       | data available during checkups, the machine learning will be able
       | to guess/order tests for individuals based on their age, specific
       | genes they are carrying, known life age that diseases onset ect,
       | diseases for that area. It will also be able to look across the
       | population and detect statistical patterns in geographic
       | incidences of diseases with environmental causes which occur
       | outside of the normal expected distribution or in hotspots.
       | 
       | The important thing to remember about AI is you need reliable
       | data to train it as well as reliable data to test it. If you
       | don't the FDA will not allow you to employ it medically.
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | That seems doubtful. Outside of a few limited, specific cases
         | like the BRCA genes, that personalized medicine data has mostly
         | turned out to be a disappointment and not actionable. Like if I
         | find out that due to genetics my lifetime risk of rotator cuff
         | injury is 25% compared to 21% for the general population then
         | what am I supposed to do with that information?
        
           | suifbwish wrote:
           | It's not a disappointment as we have not been able to fully
           | try it out yet. Personalized medicine is in its embryonic
           | infancy. Naysayers can say what they will but the
           | medicine/therapy of the future will likely be completely
           | personalized AI generated RNA retroviral/dendrasome delivered
           | cocktails that are based on an AIs comprehension of your
           | entire genome and epigenome. I'm talking the next 100 years.
           | One major problem although beneficial at times, the FDA
           | approval process inhibits the development and shipment of new
           | solutions to medical disorders.
        
       | wise0wl wrote:
       | I previously worked for a startup that did denormalization of
       | healthcare data for the ostensible purpose of data "freedom" and
       | interoperability, with a future focus on ML funsies. All the
       | issues we had (besides ones we created) were around the
       | healthcare providers fear of pissing off EPIC, Cerner, Meditech,
       | Allscripts etc. They didn't _like_ their EMRs---in fact they
       | often hated them. The fact is though that there really is no
       | viable alternative, and the data is kept behind a gate and
       | essentially  "owned" by the EMR. FHIR was supposed to solve the
       | interoperability bit, but all the EMRs would still own the data,
       | and their lawyers aren't keen to share.
        
       | jrapdx3 wrote:
       | I'm an American physician. I've practiced in a couple of
       | specialties and know the insurance billing drill (or should I say
       | game) pretty well.
       | 
       | Medical record systems, as other comments point out, have been
       | constructed for the benefit of administrators, recording clinical
       | data is mainly to support administrative needs.
       | 
       | In reality manifestations of a given illness vary _continuously_
       | across a wide spectrum. It means patients with the same diagnosis
       | have differing sets of symptoms and course of illness. As I like
       | to say it,  "no two patients have exactly the same disease."
       | 
       | Official disease classification schemes embody the "splitter"
       | model which attempts to fit continuous data into discrete
       | categories. Of course sharp-edged distinctions suit purposes like
       | billing and other management operations.
       | 
       | However diagnosis is often ambiguous, mixed or multiple, but no
       | matter what categorical diagnoses must be assigned.
       | Unsurprisingly doctors are biased to select the choices with the
       | greatest reimbursement, and "stretching" criteria to cover the
       | patient's condition (or vice versa) is not at all uncommon.
       | (Also, there's not assigning diagnoses where it might negatively
       | impact payment.)
       | 
       | EHR clinical data follows the discrete assumptions of the system
       | design. This can create an impedance mismatch between clinician
       | observations and data input. This may be troublesome, for
       | example, in specialties (behavioral health) where data is complex
       | with many overlapping subtle but meaningful variations.
       | 
       | I've often received records after a patient has been
       | hospitalized. More than not it's difficult to understand the
       | course of treatment as there's no coherent summary or narrative
       | description provided. The "pile of data" literally transcribed
       | from the EHR isn't very useful to human readers. To be sure
       | information like lab reports, etc., are good to have, but the
       | marginalized human-to-human element is troublesome.
       | 
       | EHR clinical data failing to serve ML purposes could only point
       | to problematic EHR system design. Though I've been aware of EHR
       | limitations, I wouldn't have guessed about ML issues. The article
       | taught me something about the problem that exists. Now it remains
       | to be seen what can or will be done about it.
        
       | boas wrote:
       | > Life would be simpler if only these hospitals could set aside
       | their arrogance and just go with the recommended workflow!
       | 
       | This would be like asking programmers to standardize on the
       | recommended programming language.
       | 
       | we would love to just use the recommended workflow, if it worked
       | for our hospital. There are differences in the patients, doctors,
       | local regulations, existing systems, etc between hospitals.
       | 
       | Patients: Top cancer hospital does a lot of clinical trials, so
       | some of the forms require you to fill out clinical trial
       | information for every patient. In a maternity ward, it would not
       | be appropriate to ask about clinical trials for every patient.
       | 
       | Doctors: Hospitals are staffed differently. If the hospital has
       | residents, some of the work can be delegated to residents. If
       | not, someone else has to do it. The workflow needs to account for
       | who is actually available to do the work.
       | 
       | Local regulations: Medicine is highly regulated, and each state
       | and hospital has its own rules.
       | 
       | Existing systems: Hospital computer systems have been around for
       | decades, and usually it's not possible to migrate everything to a
       | new system, so the new system needs to integrate with the old
       | systems that couldn't be upgraded.
        
         | tclancy wrote:
         | I think the rest of the paragraph clarifies they are joking.
        
       | ialyos wrote:
       | The article is simply wrong.
       | 
       | I know this because I worked as an ML engineer at an extremely
       | successful company that automated medical coding using deep
       | learning.
       | 
       | The confusion stems from conflating a "perfect solution" with a
       | "human augmented" one.
       | 
       | 90% of coding cases are trivial, have low value and can be done
       | by a model. 10% are really subtle and need human expertise.
       | 
       | That's fine. You can make a billion dollar company on low hanging
       | fruit. I think it's best not to conflate the perfect solution
       | with a very good solution.
        
         | not2b wrote:
         | What was was the criterion that you were optimizing? Currently
         | hospitals try to assign codes in a way that maximizes payouts
         | from insurance companies while avoiding straight up lying in a
         | way that could cause them problems. So they'll handle that 10%
         | by choosing the codes with the bigger payout.
        
         | javadocmd wrote:
         | You've not refuted the article so much as pointed out a corner
         | case the author didn't address in which ML is a good fit. Your
         | example, using ML to perform the medical coding function, is
         | using a data source (in this case the EMR) for one of the
         | purposes for which it was explicitly designed and for which it
         | is (arguably) non-deficient. That is a realm not doomed to
         | failure.
         | 
         | The realm doomed to failure is using a data source for a
         | completely oblique purpose for which it is horribly distorted.
         | Namely, the purpose of optimizing individual and public health
         | by discovering guidelines and treatments, diagnosing illness,
         | and delivering optimal care.
         | 
         | (Of course medical billing as an enterprise shouldn't even
         | _exist_ , but that is another topic.)
        
         | sjg007 wrote:
         | Medical coding is just billing right? You match doctor notes to
         | ICD-10 codes. Seems reasonable.
        
       | adultSwim wrote:
       | These systems are primarily designed to support clinical care.
       | Research is an after thought. Health care systems will have to
       | decide it's a top level priority.
       | 
       | There has been modest progress through wider efforts:
       | 
       | - Standard vocabularies, eg LOINC codes for different kinds of
       | lab tests
       | 
       | - Mappings between vocabularies, eg OMOP
       | 
       | - Semantically rich vocabularies, eg OBO's OBI
        
       | iancmceachern wrote:
       | You see these same pitfalls in much of the medical device
       | industry. Often hospitals and their weird political internal
       | workings drive reasons for things, and not quality or efficiency
       | of care, care for their workers, etc. You see this present itself
       | af far up as to help choose a certain technology development path
       | for an entire industry based on these non-real internal hospital
       | dynamics and intrenched ways of doing things, and billing for
       | them rather than working to improve quality of care or outcomes.
        
       | midjji wrote:
       | Deep learning has great potential in medicine, in particular in
       | radiology and tissue classification. Creating the datasets from
       | scratch will take decades of careful deliberate highly costly
       | effort however, and the current crap hospitals call records is
       | utterly useless. It will truly have to be a bottom up approach,
       | and in the process systematic studies to actually verify a lot of
       | bullshit medical ideas will also have to be done. Basic questions
       | like how many kinds of tissues are there have very dubious
       | answers which are known to be coarse approximations, and some
       | diseases are specifically deviation from the approximations. Its
       | probably not quite as bad as linguistics where, but its really
       | bad. Once datasets with millions of people followed and tested
       | regularly throughout their lives for the specific purpose of
       | generating the dataset, are available for training, it will be
       | quite good. Shame we wont live to see it.
        
       | apwheele wrote:
       | I've always taken part of my job as a data scientist is to
       | articulate when data is not sufficient to meet a particular a
       | goal (and to outline what data would be necessary). For some
       | goals doing special data sampling and building a model on small
       | (complete) data is better than using the fragmented overall
       | database.
       | 
       | I work mostly on claims data now, and building models to identify
       | problematic claims I assure folks is feasible.
        
       | lumost wrote:
       | The challenge with ML and DL systems is that it's difficult to
       | know a-priori what will and won't work. The math would indicate
       | that there is nothing a suitable DL system cannot learn, however
       | in practice certain neural architectures can only learn certain
       | inputs. The cycle time to develop a new system is long, and data
       | is unfortunately scarce. Developing a DL system to solve a
       | problem involves guesswork as to the impact of innovating on any
       | one of dozens of components.
       | 
       | Which is to say, it is and will be difficult to create a business
       | based on applying a novel DL method to a particular problem
       | space. We're seeing a consistent trend that focusing on the other
       | aspects of the problem such as data, tooling, or end to end
       | services tends to be much more successful.
        
       | wutbrodo wrote:
       | Leaving aside the well-known dumpster fire of the healthcare
       | system's operational incompetence, none of these are particularly
       | novel, most of them are the author discovering basic best
       | practices in statistics, and they don't come close to implying
       | "DL for EMR is doomed".
       | 
       | A health outcome is correlated with age? Ya don't say.... This is
       | only a problem that literally every single economist and
       | sociologist checks for _first_. Agents in causal graphs respond
       | to their inputs? Shocker, that's only.... The definition of an
       | agent.
       | 
       | There are a ton of applications out there where a fairly naive
       | model built by someone who took a Pytorch Coursera course can
       | provide decent improvements. Healthcare is not one of them, and
       | nobody serious ever thought it was. Bringing modern learning
       | tools into healthcare is going to require a lot of smart people
       | who know what they're doing, working cautiously to introduce
       | these improvements into an operational quagmire with high stakes.
       | 
       | But this article reads like: "I tried making healthcare 'smart'
       | in a Jupyter notebook over a weekend and it didn't work: the
       | effort is doomed".
        
       | ilaksh wrote:
       | We need either A) competent, highly technologically sophisticated
       | government (which seems very far away obviously) or B) something
       | really similar to take it's place.
       | 
       | So much of what government does (aside from the bombings etc.) is
       | really about providing and enforcing a framework for people to
       | work together. And in this era that needs to be a high tech
       | framework.
       | 
       | Actually, it needs to not only be very high tech, but also very
       | cutting edge, decentralized, sufficiently holistic but also
       | flexible enough to evolve.
       | 
       | Which is incredibly hard, and we probably will not get due to
       | greed, stupidity and politics, and that may be the actual reason
       | that human civilization is superceded by AI civilization.
        
       | btown wrote:
       | It strikes me that the decades of academic literature that
       | establish "in order to get a result correlating X and Y, we
       | needed to control for A, B, C, ..." would be a critical input
       | into any system attempting to work with medical data. In a way,
       | the plaintext of historical medical journals has encoded much of
       | this expert knowledge, albeit with retractions and errors the
       | further back you go. But that might change the conclusion of the
       | OP into more of an "incredibly hard problem" rather than "doomed
       | to fail."
        
       | mechanical_bear wrote:
       | These sort of headlines are just cheap click bait.
        
       | deltarholamda wrote:
       | While a lot of the post is good info, there are some upsides, if
       | we can get the EHR situation worked out.
       | 
       | Many years ago, prior to anything like ML, Canada figured out
       | that cystic fibrosis patients whose weight is higher than 50th
       | percentile, had significantly better lung function. Nobody really
       | understood why, but the correlation was so strong (.85 or
       | something like that) it could not be ignored. Treatment protocols
       | for CF changed to encourage weight gain, and lifespan outcomes
       | have steadily improved over the years.
       | 
       | What other oddball correlations are hiding in the depths of
       | bloodwork, weight/height, etc. for patients? We've teased out all
       | the easy ones, the ones that are left are combinations nobody
       | thought to even measure.
       | 
       | Regarding the EHR debacle, I'm optimistic that something could be
       | worked out as a standard and implemented across the board.
       | Expensive? Sure, but it's an investment that pays off pretty
       | quickly, I think.
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | We're never going to get every provider organization using the
         | same EHR, nor would that even be desirable. But almost all of
         | them have passed ONC Health IT certification so they have
         | similar functionality, including exposing at least some data in
         | open industry standard formats.
        
       | jcims wrote:
       | I'm running through a similar situation in risk management. There
       | is so much domain and institutional knowledge that's encoded in
       | rules that its nearly impossible to reason about them in a
       | generic way. Add in operational that is also rife with data
       | quality and coverage issues and it becomes quite difficult.
       | 
       | I think we have a term for this in both areas: garbage in,
       | garbage out.
        
       | citizenpaul wrote:
       | You may not realize that EMRs owe their existence to
       | 1.billing        2. government mandates        3. billing
       | 4.helping doctors keep track of their patients' records
       | 
       | just like how people think ADP is in the business of payroll.
       | Theyare actually in the business off mitigating regulation, taxes
       | and liability. Getting your wage to you is at best 2nd priority
       | to all those.
        
       | teleforce wrote:
       | It's kind of funny that the author mentioned about data
       | fragmentation in the very first section and at the end went to
       | provide Heart rate/ECG/Afib as one of the successful case studies
       | for deep learning for EMR.
       | 
       | ECG is the classic case of data fragmentation that he's talking
       | about and if you want to export raw data from the popular ECG
       | machine like Mortara, good luck with that. Heck even Apple
       | currently does not support exporting raw data ECG out of the box
       | that's crucial for deep learning, apart from the PDF image file
       | for the ECG waveform [1]. Literally there are more than a few
       | dozens open formats for the ECG [2],[3] and this obligatory XKCD
       | comic comes to mind except that there are 39 standards instead of
       | 15! [4]. Even if the ECG machine manufacturer is using one of the
       | formats there are still serious interoperability issues down the
       | road.
       | 
       | Rambling aside, there's yearly cardiology global challenge
       | competition organized by Computing and Cardiology Conference
       | (CINC) and recently there are machine learning and deep learning
       | techniques proposed for multi-lead ECG diagnostics but the
       | results are not that great [5]. Hopefully it will start an
       | impetus to deep learning in EMR similar to ImageNet Challenge
       | that gave rise to the actual deep learning algorithm that drived
       | the community past the winter AI.
       | 
       | [1] Accessing the ECG Data of the Apple Watch and Accomplishing
       | Interoperability Through FHIR:
       | 
       | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34042901/
       | 
       | [2] A review of ECG storage formats:
       | 
       | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21775198/
       | 
       | [3] A Review on Digital ECG Formats and the Relationships Between
       | Them:
       | 
       | http://diec.unizar.es/~imr/personal/docs/paper12IEEETITB1.pd...
       | 
       | [4] How standards proliferate:
       | 
       | https://xkcd.com/927/
       | 
       | [5]The PhysioNet/CinC Challenge:
       | 
       | https://cinc.org/physionet-cinc-challenge-awards/
        
       | steve76 wrote:
        
       | katekoch wrote:
        
       | lepapillon wrote:
       | I don't really want to comment on whether or not DL is doomed to
       | fail on the EMR, but coming from an EMR background, I can say he
       | lays out very accurate points. I particularly like how he
       | explains #3 concisely, and it's a point I use to criticize the
       | private healthcare system.
       | 
       | The continual war between hospitals having to opportunistically
       | charge for their services vs. the insurance industry having to
       | take a default stance of deflection creates the massive, meaty
       | layer of coding and billing waste. Thousands upon thousands of
       | jobs exist just for this purpose, and I think any inefficiency in
       | a single-payer system is more than offset by getting rid of that
       | layer and everyone benefits.
        
       | fnbr wrote:
       | I agree with the conclusion. This is totally unsurprising to me
       | as a ML engineer. If you put garbage data into the model, you get
       | garbage predictions. That doesn't strike me as particularly
       | novel. The same is true for cooking, after all.
       | 
       | However- this has been truly shocking to all of the non-technical
       | stakeholders I've worked with. They take the stance that any
       | large amount of data can be used to do ML on, presumably because
       | they don't know too much about what doing ML is like.
       | 
       | So I'm convinced the author is right, and I'm also convinced that
       | there will be many attempts to use ML on EMRs.
        
         | jerf wrote:
         | There is the old quote that we've all seen: "On two occasions I
         | have been asked, 'Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you put into the
         | machine wrong figures, will the right answers come out?' I am
         | not able rightly to apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas
         | that could provoke such a question." - Charles Babbage
         | 
         | I will say, I have some good news for the late great Charles
         | Babbage. For the most part, people now do indeed understand
         | that if you put _small_ amounts of wrong figures into a
         | machine, the wrong answers will come out. If nothing else,
         | pocket calculators and math class have given them the direct
         | experience of this.
         | 
         | However, it seems that people still expect that if you put
         | _gigabytes_ or _petabytes_ worth of wrong figures into a
         | machine that somehow the right answer will pop out.
         | 
         | Ah well. The road never ends, you know.
        
           | d1sxeyes wrote:
           | > However, it seems that people still expect that if you put
           | gigabytes or petabytes worth of wrong figures into a machine
           | that somehow the right answer will pop out.
           | 
           | The interesting fact is that if you put in lots of correct
           | figures, and only one, slightly wrong figure, then the answer
           | may be correct to an acceptable degree.
           | 
           | For example, take 100 values, all exactly one, and find the
           | mean. You'll find 1.
           | 
           | If you take 99 values of exactly one and one value of two,
           | the mean of your sample will be 1.01, which is close enough
           | to still be useful. In some interpretations, it may even be
           | rounded to 1, meaning that in some circumstances, incorrect
           | figures can indeed sometimes lead to correct answers.
           | 
           | Or if you're trying to find out what adding 1 and 4 gives
           | you, but accidentally you add 2 and 3, you get the correct
           | answer despite incorrect inputs.
           | 
           | I think people are assuming that if you put gigabytes or
           | petabytes worth of data into a machine, the number of 'wrong
           | figures' will be lost as noise.
        
             | paulmd wrote:
             | the problem is that for medical coding, this translates to
             | "a small number of procedures will be coded wrong", and
             | that's not a meaningfully better situation than "a small
             | number of procedures can't be coded", and in fact is
             | probably worse. So you need a reasonably high confidence
             | threshold, and really in most cases you probably want to
             | have a human manually review the problem (or questionable)
             | cases.
        
         | BolexNOLA wrote:
         | Garbage in -> Garbage out is basically a Newtonian law at this
         | point haha
        
           | momenti wrote:
           | That's not entirely true. Neural networks are fairly robust
           | to noisy training data (a.k.a. garbage).[0] Well,
           | _stochastic_ gradient descent has the noise in its name. More
           | training data can compensate for noisy data to some
           | extent.[1] I 'm not sure know if model size can also
           | compensate for noisy data though, but would not be surprised
           | if it did.
           | 
           | [0] https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.10694
           | 
           | [1] https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.01994
        
             | midjji wrote:
             | There are very specific conditions for this to hold, mostly
             | that the incorrect sample is surrounded by correct ones,
             | and that the model is small enough or the error vanishingly
             | rare. Notably the reference you gave also shows horrendous
             | generalization performance, so its really just showing how
             | easy it is to overparametrize. Input errors can be
             | accounted for to some extent, but also under specific
             | circumstances, eg.
             | 
             | https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content_CVPR_2020/html/Eldeso
             | k...
        
             | BolexNOLA wrote:
             | I mean the argument there is basically if there is enough
             | good quality data, the bad data is somewhat (or mostly)
             | compensated for. To which I would argue that is no longer a
             | "garbage in garbage out" situation as most people use it.
        
       | stared wrote:
       | Most of the points are naive and confuse predictive power with
       | interpretability (the latter is harder). For example:
       | 
       | > Did you know that a blood oxygen saturation of 0% is highly
       | correlated with healthy outcomes? No, I didn't get the percentage
       | backwards. A 0% reading is what you get when the nurse looks at
       | you and decides you're too obviously healthy to bother with
       | putting the pulse oximeter on your finger. The empty field value
       | gets saved as a 0, of course.
       | 
       | Well, statistical methods (no matter if classical, Bayesian, Deep
       | Learning, or anything, as long as it goes beyond linear methods)
       | will perfectly capture the special case of 0% and predict
       | accordingly. These methods are free of our biases and will take
       | consistent approaches (e.g. empty columns, columns that de facto
       | mean something else, common typos, etc).
       | 
       | Sure, interpretability is problematic, and we often need to
       | consider the knowledge of physicians and medical institutions
       | rather than be based on raw data.
        
       | AutumnCurtain wrote:
       | The first point he raises is the most critical by far. The
       | silverbacks of the industry deliberately stymie efforts for true
       | interoperability because it goes directly against their primary
       | goal, which is forcing everyone into their platform. Epic in
       | particular has zero intention of allowing anyone else to take
       | their market share by enabling easy sharing of data across
       | platforms. It's far better for them from a business perspective
       | to make interfacing so unreasonably difficult that you are forced
       | to implement their full suite of applications, at which point
       | they hold your organization's data hostage to induce other orgs
       | to do the same. The larger their ecosystem grows, the less they
       | need to worry about interoperability - improving patients'
       | outcomes is not even an afterthought. Their vision of population
       | health reporting is one in which every major healthcare org has
       | been trapped inside their walled garden.
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | Epic has an extensive set of interoperability APIs, mostly
         | based on open industry standards, which enable easy sharing of
         | data across platforms. Is there something specific missing?
         | 
         | https://open.epic.com/
        
           | pc86 wrote:
           | Pardon my bluntness but this is a bullshit brochure website.
           | 
           | I've worked with non-health system healthcare companies that
           | have tried to work with Epic on interoperability. They are
           | outright hostile to anyone being able to access any data in
           | their systems unless it's the hospital customer (and even
           | then they're not exactly helpful).
        
             | nradov wrote:
             | Could you be more specific about what part of the website
             | is bullshit? I've used some of those APIs and they worked
             | as documented.
             | 
             | Vendor hostility is only an issue if you actually need to
             | work directly with the vendor. Most of them have no
             | incentive to help other developers who aren't their
             | customers. Why would they? If you're doing something new
             | that requires active Epic cooperation then it's best to
             | partner with a major Epic customer, and put a formal legal
             | agreement in place.
        
         | paulmd wrote:
         | Yes, EHR vendors are really opponents/gatekeepers here. They
         | don't benefit from you getting your data out of the EHR and in
         | my experience they weren't really open to it.
         | 
         | Interoperability is really driven by either state/federal
         | reporting requirements, or billing. And there is no incentive
         | for EHR vendors or their client hospital systems to go beyond
         | the exact minimum to get paid.
        
         | colinmhayes wrote:
         | Epic controls 55% of the EMR market, and that number is only
         | growing. It won't be long until this isn't a problem because
         | the majority of the population has all their records with Epic.
        
         | z3ugma wrote:
         | Some free advice from an ex-Epic: This is true when it's other
         | vendors doing the data fetching. When it's a health system
         | customer of Epic, they bend over backwards to help them extract
         | the data properly and build cool clinical tools on top of the
         | Epic platform. Health systems with big innovation arms like
         | Atrium and Providence could be a good place to seek VC if your
         | product idea relies on deep EMR access. Sometimes the left hand
         | doesn't talk to the right in these health systems though -
         | you'll need to get that innovation arm talking to the EMR
         | analysts. Use the shibboleth "I want to talk to our Epic TS"
         | for whatever speciality you work on.
         | 
         | As for things like the App Orchard and Epic on FHIR
         | https://fhir.epic.com/ : Epic is smart enough to realize that
         | their future lies as the _platform_ of the health system IT
         | stack, in the Ben Thompson sense of a platform  / aggregator.
         | 
         | The hospitals are scared of open access, and Epic always does
         | what's in the best interest of their customers, so they push
         | against open access.
        
           | bduerst wrote:
           | Yeah, ex-Epic here as well. Epic's data surfaces are
           | byzantine almost _by design_ , as a form of security or
           | safety. It can only be construed as gatekeeping in that Epic
           | has never prioritized making it better for non-customers.
        
           | bearjaws wrote:
           | Epic on FHIR is missing a ton of data that is present in
           | Epic, for example if I want to react to a dispensing event,
           | that has to be custom built as far as I know. Even then,
           | you're long polling an endpoint hoping you find work you need
           | to react to.
           | 
           | At times it feels like it would be better to just get data
           | straight from the database, as custom Epic implementation
           | times are insanely long and costly.
        
             | nradov wrote:
             | I don't know about dispensing events specifically, but Epic
             | supports CDS Hooks to allow for triggering custom code in
             | response to certain events.
             | 
             | Getting data straight from an EHR's underlying database is
             | risky. The vendors generally don't document or support
             | this, and the schema could change at any time.
        
               | nimish wrote:
               | Well, you don't end up having to query their DB directly,
               | you can do it via standardized IHE ITI XDS/XCA over a
               | network like CareQuality. There are startups like
               | Particle that can do it as a SaaS.
        
               | abrichr wrote:
               | Thanks for sharing. Can you please suggest some resources
               | for further reading? Is particle.io the startup you
               | mentioned?
        
               | nimish wrote:
               | https://www.particlehealth.com/ -- full disclosure, I was
               | an early employee
        
               | bearjaws wrote:
               | Have you used Particle? I find the concept really
               | interesting and could help me in the future. Would love a
               | end user opinion.
        
               | nimish wrote:
               | Full disclosure, I was an early employee and wrote the
               | first integrations, so I'm likely not the right person to
               | ask. https://www.particlehealth.com/ should have details.
        
           | nimish wrote:
           | Ehh, Epic cares about Epic. They lose their gatekeeping
           | ability once TEFCA roles out with teeth.
           | 
           | The P in HIPAA stands for portability, of course.
        
             | [deleted]
        
       | ZeroCool2u wrote:
       | Having worked with data from EMR systems and having worked at a
       | large EMR software development shop myself, and now using deep
       | learning at work quite a bit for the past few years, I'm inclined
       | to agree.
       | 
       | This title is somewhat click bait though, because the fault is
       | really with EMR systems and (esp) the American Healthcare system,
       | not deep learning.
       | 
       | The entire system is designed around billing and decisions are
       | made my hospital and insurance executives that are generally not
       | technical. There is no incentive to clean up the system or work
       | on a well structured open protocol for interop the same way there
       | is in say banking. Plus, the author gives some good examples like
       | pulse ox%, doctors and nurses are not at all concerned with or
       | trained to record data in a way that makes sense to use
       | programmatically. They're typically thinking only as if they're
       | recording it for another human to read.
       | 
       | Deep learning could probably be quite useful in the medical
       | field, but we won't know until someone comes along and disrupts
       | the system top to bottom similar to how Tesla has done with not
       | only manufacturing, but the sales process and shirking the
       | dealership model. This would probably look something like
       | Forward[1], but with a crazy amount of funding, so that insurance
       | companies and billing codes could be ignored entirely.
       | 
       | [1]: https://goforward.com/p/home
        
         | ulkesh wrote:
         | Yes, exactly. Hospital data is atrocious, on every single
         | level. Duplicate data are everywhere across multiple systems.
         | Hospitals move excruciatingly slow to do anything technical.
         | And, very few people seem to ever have any real understanding
         | of what is going on with their systems, they tend to only know
         | the user interface and have to rely on their vendor support
         | (Epic, Cerner, etc) for anything beyond that.
         | 
         | I work for a company that I was hoping would be such a
         | disruption point for hospitals (at least in some small way),
         | but instead they decided that it's just too difficult to get
         | hospitals to do much of anything, so we effectively knuckle
         | under -- creating numerous integration points, making more and
         | more copies of data.
         | 
         | The only way this will change is if a large enough player
         | creates direct competition in the EHR/EMR business, with these
         | kinds of data-oriented models in mind, all the while creating a
         | system that, top-to-bottom, is better for both the user, the
         | administrator, and the technical staff. Current players in this
         | space have very little incentive to make their products better.
         | And it reminds me of a quote from Tron Legacy: "Given the
         | prices we charge to students and schools, what sort of
         | improvements have been made in Flynn... I mean, um, ENCOM
         | OS-12?"..."This year we put a "12" on the box."
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | It would take billions of dollars and many years to build a
           | new general purpose EHR from scratch. This isn't an industry
           | where a start-up can launch an MVP and get sales to early
           | adopters looking for a competitive advantage. Every major
           | provider organization already has an EHR, and usually an ONC
           | certified one. A new offering has to be at least as good as
           | existing products in every way in order to get any sales. It
           | has to be a 100% solution out of the gate.
           | 
           | Outside of general purpose comprehensive EHRs there is still
           | opportunity for new niche market offerings targeting limited
           | medical specialties or types of facilities. For example if
           | you wanted to target, let's say, just dialysis centers or
           | just psychiatrists then the hurdle would be much lower.
        
             | Taikonerd wrote:
             | There _are_ several different open-source EHRs... OpenEMR
             | and OpenVista come to mind. You wouldn 't have to build one
             | from scratch.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | Sure but those existing open source EHRs aren't any
               | better for users than the commercial alternatives. In
               | fact they're mostly worse. OpenEMR is only suitable for
               | small organizations delivering outpatient care, not for
               | large hospital chains. OpenVista has a huge amount of
               | technical debt and isn't getting much new adoption.
               | Neither product has the kind of underlying data model
               | that @ulkesh suggested above. So I think anyone looking
               | to build a truly disruptive product would have to start
               | almost from scratch.
        
             | vanviegen wrote:
             | A bit of inspired legislation could solve all of these
             | problems.
        
               | lowbloodsugar wrote:
               | Sure. That's where the first few billions of dollars and
               | several years are going to have to go.
        
               | voakbasda wrote:
               | And would you trust anyone willing and able to go through
               | that process? The lobbying and political game is filled
               | with sociopaths that would sell out the public for a hot
               | lunch.
        
           | divbzero wrote:
           | Part of the challenge might be the limited number of
           | individuals with expertise in both medicine and technology.
           | Each of those fields are quite specialized and require time
           | to build an understanding of the subject matter.
        
         | divbzero wrote:
         | Wouldn't heath systems like Kaiser Permanente that are fully
         | integrated (both insurer and provider) have the right
         | incentives to disrupt their own processes in favor of something
         | better?
        
         | modeless wrote:
         | > Plus, the author gives some good examples like pulse ox%,
         | doctors and nurses are not at all concerned with or trained to
         | record data in a way that makes sense to use programmatically.
         | They're typically thinking only as if they're recording it for
         | another human to read.
         | 
         | The unstructured doctor's notes may be where the best signal
         | lies. Thet should be mostly uncorrupted by the billing/process
         | related trash. Deep learning does not need data to be formatted
         | to be read "programmatically", in fact it shines most on data
         | that isn't.
        
           | yarky wrote:
           | > The unstructured doctor's notes may be where the best
           | signal lies.
           | 
           | Or where the raw data is corrupted ...
        
             | withinboredom wrote:
             | Doctors notes: removed 2 polyps Billing: unremarkable
             | endoscopy
             | 
             | Which is true? (Based on a true story)
        
               | pc86 wrote:
               | They're both true of course. Polyps get removed all the
               | time, it is unremarkable in a medical sense, and probably
               | not enough to even warrant its own billing code,
               | otherwise it certainly would have been listed.
        
               | danachow wrote:
               | No this is not true at all. Procedural documentation in
               | the US is exquisitely detailed both for medical-legal
               | reasons and billing. Any polyp in the colon will be
               | grossly described, it's approximate position and if any
               | intervention or send out testing is being performed.
               | 
               | And as an internist - no colon polyp is medically
               | unremarkable.
        
               | withinboredom wrote:
               | Ah yeah, that's good point. In either case, the true
               | story ended with no polyps and it was a transcription
               | error.
        
           | midjji wrote:
           | Deep learning requires very well curated and balanced
           | datasets, at best if your test data is also poorly curated
           | and similarly unbalanced that might hide that it isn't
           | working from you.
        
         | pkaye wrote:
         | So does that mean it might be of use to non American healthcare
         | systems which have less to deal with billing?
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | Implementation guides built on HL7 FHIR are well structured
         | open protocols for interoperability. Several of the largest EHR
         | vendors actively participate in defining those standards, and
         | have built them into products.
         | 
         | Of course that doesn't solve the garbage in / garbage out
         | problem. If users configure the software incorrectly or don't
         | enter the right data then then you don't have much to work
         | with.
         | 
         | In some cases NLP technology can be used to convert
         | unstructured chart notes into coded clinical concepts. That can
         | work well enough for research and analytics, but isn't accurate
         | enough to use for direct patient care without human review.
        
           | shakna wrote:
           | HL7. Well-structured. Pick one. The HL7 spec might be a
           | standard, with a specification, but it is not a thing for
           | well-structured data.
           | 
           | For example, FHIR allows you to use a standardised shorthand,
           | with a formal grammar. [0] That grammar is well defined... It
           | also happens not be a regular grammar, and it is entirely
           | possible to construct something that will be both valid and
           | undecidable, ala Perl. Infinite parsing and expansion on
           | finite data.
           | 
           | [0] https://hl7.org/fhir/uv/shorthand/STU1/reference.html#app
           | end...
        
             | paulmd wrote:
             | Yes, think of HL7 like XML or JSON. It's a grammar/syntax,
             | it does provide some domain-specific conceptual mapping but
             | you can code the same thing lots of different ways.
             | Emitting a well-formed HL7 message doesn't mean that
             | anybody can actually ingest them.
             | 
             | There's also a fair amount of instance-specific coding and
             | going to/from that is always a pain.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | I wouldn't think of HL7 like XML or JSON, it's higher
               | level than that. HL7 is a standards development
               | organization which publishes multiple separate major
               | standards. Those standards define data models which can
               | be encoded in various different wire formats. V2
               | Messaging can be encoded as ER7 or (rarely) XML. CDA can
               | only be encoded as XML. FHIR can be encoded as JSON or
               | XML.
               | 
               | If you want recipients to be able to ingest your messages
               | or documents then it's crucial for the sender and
               | recipient to mutually agree to conform to a specific
               | versioned Implementation Guide. If both parties actually
               | follow the IG then it eliminates the need for instance
               | specific coding, but of course some organizations still
               | have quality problems.
        
             | nradov wrote:
             | That isn't an accurate description of HL7 standards.
             | Everyone in the industry understands that the baseline
             | standards (V2 Messaging, CDA, FHIR) are just construction
             | kits. In order to achieve real world interoperability you
             | need an Implementation Guide which profiles and constrains
             | the baseline standard to clearly document the exact
             | interactions and data structures (required data elements,
             | cardinality, code system bindings, extensions). There are
             | dozens of published IGs so find one that fits your use
             | case, or get involved with an HL7 Work Group or FHIR
             | Accelerator and help write a new IG. Anyone can participate
             | and as ANSI accredited organization the process is
             | completely open.
             | 
             | I don't understand your concern with the possibility of a
             | FHIR Shorthand expression being undecidable. This just
             | isn't a problem in any real world system. But if you know a
             | better approach then formal proposals to improve the
             | standard are always welcome and will be seriously
             | considered.
        
             | specialist wrote:
             | Yup. After a few years of trying to follow the rules, I
             | just decided to use data scrapping techniques.
        
           | specialist wrote:
           | I designed, implemented, and supported 5 regional exchanges.
           | Interop is always case-by-case.
           | 
           | Protocols like HL7 (2.x, 3.x, FHIR) give you shared syntax
           | (lexing) and about 98% agreement on structure and semantics
           | (parsing). Then you'll spend most time on the last 2% on
           | excruciating details. Data quality on field values, matching
           | units, mapping one taxonomy to another (and back).
           | 
           | > _If users configure the software incorrectly..._
           | 
           | Based on my experience, incompatibility is a given.
           | Regardless of the cause. Misconfiguration, mismatched
           | versions, ignorance, artistic license, etc.
           | 
           | Plan for the worse, hope for the best.
        
         | toss1 wrote:
         | >>This title is somewhat click bait though, because the fault
         | is really with EMR systems and (esp) the American Healthcare
         | system, not deep learning.
         | 
         | Right
         | 
         | Data-mush is the cause
         | 
         | That's my official term for it. Data that looks fantastic in
         | format, but just the slightest peek under the covers reveals
         | that every data-entry person is either freelancing and entering
         | whatever is easiest/sorta-makes-sense for them, or under
         | pressure to skew things, or the definitions of each code (and
         | the cases where it does/doesn't apply) are ill-defined, or etc.
         | etc. etc. and on top of this, we have the medical system
         | insurer-provider adversarial relationship covered so well in
         | the article.
         | 
         | The result is a toxic brew of definition drift, unintentional
         | errors, and intentional errors. It is not just the fringes and
         | sub-one-percent of the edge cases, it is rotten to the core.
         | 
         | Basically the entire data set is a complete lie.
         | 
         | You may have the most perfect AI, but it literally has no
         | chance against that toxic data swamp.
         | 
         | Once again, the only winning move is to not play.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | midjji wrote:
         | Having worked with otherwise decent Swedish public healthcare
         | systems, I can't tell you if its as bad, just that it is
         | absolutely awful. I would never think to try and use anything
         | they provided as basis for a dataset.
        
         | not2b wrote:
         | "This title is somewhat click bait though, because the fault is
         | really with EMR systems".
         | 
         | The title is entirely accurate: it specifies "on electronic
         | medical records" and effectively demonstrates the thesis in the
         | title. And yes, you're right that the problem is in the data.
         | No matter, it's still true.
         | 
         | Everything with an even mildly provocative title is accused of
         | being "clickbait" on HN. I wish people would reserve that
         | criticism for actively deceptive titles, or titles that promise
         | something that is not delivered.
        
         | BeFlatXIII wrote:
         | > doctors and nurses are not at all concerned with or trained
         | to record data in a way that makes sense to use
         | programmatically. They're typically thinking only as if they're
         | recording it for another human to read.
         | 
         | The flip side of this is that data entered for programmatic
         | reading often isn't very useful for future humans to review.
         | Automatically-generated doctor's notes obscure information in a
         | way that "HEART ATTACK" circled in red ink on a paper chart
         | does not.
        
       | idoh wrote:
       | I happen to know a lot of doctors, including, as an example, an
       | OBGYN. As it was explained to me, for vaginal births:
       | 
       | - at some point someone, without evidence, speculated that cervix
       | dilation should proceed along some curve
       | 
       | - cervix dilation is actually measured by hand - literally
       | inserting fingers and having the doctor practice "so many fingers
       | = so many centimeters". There's plastic sheets with holes in them
       | so they can practice measuring the size of holes with fingers.
       | 
       | - the OBGYN knows that the cervix dilation curve should look
       | like, and kinda sorta maps their hand readings to what it should
       | look like
       | 
       | - the OBGYN has a general sense as to how labor is going, and
       | will game the cervix dilation stats to match their expectation,
       | e.g. if labor is going well but the cervix hasn't dilated then
       | they'll kinda sorta report progress anyway
       | 
       | Anyway, given the above it seems like the data around cervix
       | dilation is suspect - the measurements are fitted to what the
       | curve should look like, and then the data matches the curve, and
       | that makes people more confident in the curve, and so on.
       | 
       | The point is, can you really apply ML to the EMR of cervix
       | dilation? Does it make sense, could you really draw conclusions
       | from this?
        
         | pc86 wrote:
         | Just to clarify, this OB will report incorrect clinical data to
         | support how they feel labor is going?
        
           | idoh wrote:
           | In some situations yes, in others, if they read a 5.5 or a 6,
           | then they will pick the one that fits.
        
       | jesseryoung wrote:
       | I've worked in healthcare IT for my entire professional career -
       | It's A LOT more complicated than most people think. For the last
       | 5 years I've focused on the data side of healthcare and I think
       | that deep learning is 100% possible - it's just not achievable by
       | a single person and it's likely VERY expensive. There are so many
       | facets to healthcare data that's it's just impossible for a
       | single individual to achieve something meaningful by themselves
       | without the help of teams of doctors, data analysts, data
       | engineers and data scientists. Just dealing with data quality
       | issues (such as the ones called out in this essay) require a team
       | of people to determine if metrics you are trying to measure are
       | legit or not.
       | 
       | On billing: I'm convinced that the primary reason why healthcare
       | (at least in the US) is so complex - is because of the dichotomy
       | of saving people at all costs, while doing so fiscally
       | responsibly. It is fairly common for large healthcare
       | organizations to have ACTING doctors in their c-suite, who's
       | primary goal is not to make money - it's to save lives. The
       | people who care about saving money, reducing cost and increasing
       | efficiency have no control over the organization. I'm not saying
       | this is a bad thing, but IMO it's the largest contributing factor
       | as to why healthcare billing is so complex, and healthcare costs
       | get as high as they do (at least in the US).
        
       | mercurywells wrote:
       | Is part of the solution going to be having ML figure out what
       | data might be missing to make a better conclusion, then
       | explicitly asking the patient (or the person gathering data from
       | the patient) for that missing data or a clarification?
        
       | verisimi wrote:
       | What if I do need to go to a hospital, but don't want any
       | information about me to be shared? Is that impossible? What are
       | the ethical considerations for me, when I disagree entirely to
       | any data collection? Must I be coerced against my will into
       | providing to Google or whoever regardless?
       | 
       | The point I am raising is that there is an embedded assumption
       | that this info should even be available for deep learning to work
       | over.
        
         | sjg007 wrote:
         | Pay cash maybe and even then it might be in the terms of
         | service of the clinic or hospital that they can use or share
         | your data as needed. It may be deidentified as well. An
         | alternative is to check in under an assumed name which many
         | famous people do.
         | 
         | There are concierge doctors as well that probably have stricter
         | guidelines.
        
         | paulmd wrote:
         | For transmissible/infectious diseases, this is certainly
         | impossible, since states ingest case reports and lab data
         | surrounding this and send digests to CDC. The term of interest
         | would be "NEDSS reporting".
         | 
         | https://www.cdc.gov/nndss/about/nedss.html
        
       | jmugan wrote:
       | We need to work on the hard problem of building causal models of
       | the world, then we can build causal models of medicine on top,
       | then we can do learning on medical records.
        
       | ltbarcly3 wrote:
       | If there is no meaningful statistical information in medical
       | records, then we should stop keeping them? By hypothesis a doctor
       | who opens a medical record can't gain any meaningful information
       | from it for the same reasons listed in the article. I think this
       | is sufficient to demonstrate the article is incorrect, there is
       | significant information in medical records, and therefore it will
       | be possible to train a model which can reproduce missing
       | information to some degree.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | cptaj wrote:
       | >EMR software is widely hated by the nurses and doctors who have
       | to use it. It's slow, bloated, nonintuitive, requires
       | workarounds, etc. etc. etc.. The root of this evil is that every
       | hospital brings its own conceited and byzantine patchwork of
       | procedures, checks, and rituals to the table.
       | 
       | You just described every admin software for every industry I've
       | worked on.
       | 
       | The problem is individual orgs dictating software architecture.
       | When each purchase is in the millions, you accommodate every whim
       | no matter how absurd... and then you end up with these bloated,
       | messy systems.
       | 
       | For software systems to REALLY, shockingly improve efficiency in
       | an organization, all the processes in the org need to change to
       | accommodate a new overarching system design. Tailoring software
       | to mirror legacy processes defeats the purpose almost entirely.
       | 
       | I think there is a truly absurd competitive advantage in doing
       | this right but you seldom see enough leverage to completely
       | overhaul every department in order to implement software admin
       | systems.
        
         | csours wrote:
         | People don't hate Jira because of Jira, they hate the
         | experience of using Jira with the rules that their organization
         | has put into Jira. They hate the culture of how their org uses
         | Jira.
        
           | justin_oaks wrote:
           | There's a lot of truth to that, but Jira (or more accurately
           | Atlassian) does things that are worthy of hate too.
           | 
           | - Some information is displayed in unexpected places
           | 
           | - The application can be slow to load
           | 
           | - Customizations are confusing (Do i need to edit the screen,
           | the screen scheme, or the issue type screen scheme?)
           | 
           | - Confusing options (Field configurations have both a
           | "Configure" action and an "Edit" action.)
           | 
           | - Basic features are often left out and require plugins to
           | bridge the gap.
           | 
           | And much more!
        
       | paulsutter wrote:
       | Better title, "ML on EMRs is very difficult". The article is much
       | more reasonable than the clickbait title:
       | 
       | "I don't think deep learning models on EMRs are going to be
       | useful any time soon .. Clinical expertise is absolutely
       | necessary to ask the right questions, to set up the inputs to the
       | model, and to sift through the findings. Following that, clinical
       | research will be necessary to validate the discovery"
        
       | myrryr wrote:
       | This seems like a lot of very "USA" problems.
       | 
       | A lot of countries don't have the same drivers.
        
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