[HN Gopher] US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at...
___________________________________________________________________
US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices
than diesel
Author : orangebanana1
Score : 213 points
Date : 2022-03-18 18:12 UTC (4 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.canarymedia.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.canarymedia.com)
| roamerz wrote:
| Cheaper for the school districts themselves maybe. I'd like to
| see an honest article that included the overall cost to taxpayers
| as well.
| guerby wrote:
| For those curious about EV bus including maintenance vs diesel
| EEVBlog has one episode on a private company switching to EV:
|
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKs3LytrICA
| me_me_mu_mu wrote:
| When I was a kid like 15 years ago we'd walk to school if it was
| close. I took the bus until middle school which was like 1 mile
| away.
|
| I hope car usage goes down, especially a single person driving a
| big SUV. Walk, or bike, to where you need to go. Less cars, more
| safe.
| elihu wrote:
| Apparently there's an important patent on lithium iron phosphate
| (LFP) batteries that expires next month (on April 27th). I'm
| hoping that changes the economics on batteries and that LFPs
| become cheap and abundant, and widely available from a variety of
| manufacturers that aren't located in China.
|
| LFP seems like the obvious choice for large vehicles like buses
| unless there's some reason to really need to optimize for range.
| In schoolbuses especially, it would be good to use a kind of
| battery that's much less likely to catch on fire.
| mardifoufs wrote:
| LiFePo batteries are already getting produced in huge numbers
| in China and are very cheap even here in the west. Could the
| Chinese LiFePo products legally be imported if they were using
| patented tech? Or is it a specific variation of LiFePo that is
| patented, and could make the batteries better?
|
| Because at 150-250$/kWh _retail price_ it 's going to be
| extremely hard for local manufacturers to compete in the market
| against established Chinese manufacturers that can already make
| state of the art, high quality batteries at insane volumes.
| dont__panic wrote:
| I'm curious how they perform in cold conditions. Where I grew
| up, a solid 50% of the school year was at or below freezing
| regularly. We really worked those bus heaters -- you know the
| type, under a few seats scattered around the bus. Curiously, it
| doesn't seem that buses use heat from the engine, like most ICE
| vehicles, for heat. Instead, I'm pretty sure they were just
| using power from the motor for electric heating elements with
| fans. Given that an electric bus could easily fit an enormous
| battery slab under the seating, I wonder if electric buses
| could be even better than ICE buses in cold conditions --
| barring the obvious issues with battery efficiency in cold.
| speedgoose wrote:
| Is safety a criteria for school bus in USA? I thought it was
| only cost since the design is from the last century and many
| bus don't even have seatbelts.
| bpodgursky wrote:
| IIRC the conclusion was that requiring seat belts slows down
| the loading / unloading process and decreases ridership
| enough that more kids will actually get hurt when their
| parents drive them to school instead (since cars are far more
| dangerous to riders than giant heavy slow-moving busses).
| jws wrote:
| The NHTSA recognizes that large busses are not cars and use a
| different solution.
|
| _Large school buses are heavier and distribute crash forces
| differently than passenger cars and light trucks do. Because
| of these differences, bus passengers experience much less
| crash force than those in passenger cars, light trucks, and
| vans.
|
| NHTSA decided the best way to provide crash protection to
| passengers of large school buses is through a concept called
| "compartmentalization." This requires that the interior of
| large buses protect children without them needing to buckle
| up. Through compartmentalization, children are protected from
| crashes by strong, closely-spaced seats that have energy-
| absorbing seat backs._
|
| Statistics bear this out, taking a school bus to school is
| about 70 times more likely to deliver a student safely. In
| this context, 70 is huge.
| speedgoose wrote:
| It's a nice way to say that kids can slam the seats.
| [deleted]
| daemoens wrote:
| They'll slam into the seats and still be safer.
| freeflight wrote:
| YouTube has plenty of videos showing the insides of
| school buses during crashes, anything that ain't a
| frontal crash has kids sliding and flying all over the
| place.
|
| They slide sideways out of the seats trough any serious
| horizontal forces, in the case of a rollover their heads
| will violently hit the roof as they literally take off
| from the seats [0], and then fall on the people on the
| ground side.
|
| [0] https://youtu.be/OvNjVQkye8Y
| mywittyname wrote:
| And airbags is a nice way of saying a little bomb is
| going to blow up in your face if you crash.
| freeflight wrote:
| This NTSB PSA video explains it like "eggs in a carton"
| [0], but those bus seats look like regular benches, zero
| molding for an actual fit, like an egg would have inside a
| carton from all sides.
|
| I understand that getting a horde of kids to put on
| seatbelts is a compliance nightmare, but imho it's
| difficult to argue how that wouldn't make a massive
| difference in a crash scenario, particularly during roll-
| over incidents [1]
|
| [0] https://youtu.be/ksw67zFnuAE
|
| [1] https://youtu.be/l4uHbX0SL_w (NSFW)
| Symbiote wrote:
| How common do you think that is? There seem to be several
| videos, but perhaps there's a lot of CCTV on school
| buses.
|
| I can't remember ever seeing pictures of a city bus (as
| opposed to a long distance bus) overturned in an accident
| in Europe. City bus-type vehicles are used for public bus
| service and school bus service ("school bus" is a usage,
| not a type of vehicle) but searching for things like "bus
| crash England" shows very, very few cases where a bus has
| overturned, even when it's come off the road and slid
| down a slope.
|
| If [1] is anything to go by, the bus needs to hit a
| similarly heavy vehicle to overturn. Could the American
| school bus design be susceptible to climbing up/rolling
| over a car, then tipping, compared to the typical
| European low-floor lower-centre-of-gravity bus?
|
| (No doubt there are other factors that influence the
| American school bus design.)
|
| [1] https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2009/dec/16/bus-
| toppled-colli...
| kube-system wrote:
| School busses have a ton of safety features -- just with a
| different strategy than is applied to cars. Part of the
| reason many don't have seat belts is because they are also
| designed to have safety features that work without seatbelts.
| The passengers are rowdy kids who might not always wear their
| seatbelts, so while adding them might increase protection in
| some cases, a safety design that primarily relies on
| seatbelts might not actually be a great idea.
|
| US school busses are heavy and sit very high. Busses can be
| hit by cars with little force imparted to the occupants. The
| most dangerous thing about school busses is the risk it poses
| to the other drivers that hit it:
| https://www.chron.com/news/houston-
| texas/houston/article/Cra...
| missedthecue wrote:
| There have been a ton of DOT and NHTSA studies that have
| shown that seatbelts don't keep children that much safer
| during accidents that involve school busses, because the
| children are high off the ground, busses don't move at very
| high speeds, 48 children wearing seatbelts makes a
| firefighters rescue job 100x harder, etc...
| xxpor wrote:
| Seat belts have been required in some states for decades at
| this point. We had them on buses when I was in elementary
| school 20 years ago, in NJ.
|
| Now... getting kids to actually use them is a different
| matter.
| horsawlarway wrote:
| In many of the most common situations - they just don't
| matter that much on a school bus.
|
| The bus is generally the largest vehicle on the road, and
| an impact from a car (or even pickup truck/suv) is unlikely
| to significantly move the bus. Plus - the sit very high,
| and impacts tend to drive the other vehicle down - rather
| than moving the body of the bus.
|
| The only situation they really are useful is when the bus
| rolls, and for buses that aren't driving highway speeds
| (which is most of them), they almost never roll (the only
| exception is essentially driver error - where the bus
| leaves the road on slope)
| sremani wrote:
| I do not know if we are in a commodity super-cycle but Li price
| is brrrrrrr.
|
| https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.php?c=li&u=...
|
| The days of falling battery prices in dollar terms are over.
| coryrc wrote:
| Lithium is a tiny fraction of battery cost.
| sremani wrote:
| Materials are 60% cost of Li battery and across the board
| material costs are increasing. So, I stick to my assessment
| barring new evidence (which was not provided by your post),
| that Li battery prices falling in dollar terms is done.
|
| Reference: https://qnovo.com/82-the-cost-components-of-a-
| battery/
| thescriptkiddie wrote:
| The only component of the battery which contains Lithium
| is the cathode, which according to the article you linked
| is a little less than 1/3 of the material cost, or around
| 20% of the total cost. The battery chemistry which
| contains the most Lithium is Lithium Cobalt Oxide, which
| by weight is approximately 7% Lithium and 60% Cobalt.
| Even though Lithium is vastly more expensive than Cobalt,
| Cobalt still accounts for the majority of the cathode
| material cost. So it seems like Lithium accounts for at
| most 10% of the cost of the battery.
| pg_bot wrote:
| I think you are underestimating the ingenuity of humans.
| Shortages can lead to new, more efficient ways of doing
| things. High prices are going to encourage more lithium
| production, or research into perfect substitutes. It's highly
| unlikely that in a decade battery prices will be higher than
| they are today.
| xxpor wrote:
| Yes, that's a great point. Even if you ignore the usual idle
| time between the morning and afternoon runs, I have to imagine
| a range of 150-200 miles would cover ~95% of use cases. The bus
| problem therefore should be much easier than the long haul
| truck problem. Plus, there's no trailer so you could run the
| battery pack the entire length of the bus.
| GrumpyNl wrote:
| A better alternative is the trolley bus, no batteries needed.
| https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-51034523
| jabroni_salad wrote:
| that's excellent for city busses that run all day with good
| frequency, but I would not say so for school busses, whose
| reason to exist is to collect students that live far away from
| the school for one specific commute only. Should the
| municipality really build out overhead powerlines for 20 miles
| of cornfields just for one passenger needing only 2 trips per
| day, possibly less if that student has after-school activities?
| ElevenLathe wrote:
| These services are already outsourced in many school districts,
| with the district doing nothing more than contracting out for
| certain service levels and writing a check. Presumably if it
| pencils out, those contractors will switch to electric without
| even needing to consult the board of education.
| anonymouse008 wrote:
| Do you mind pointing to a few companies who offer said contract
| services? Is it mostly a metropolitan thing?
| kasey_junk wrote:
| Chicago Public Schools has dozens of bus contractors. Here is
| one that is relatively big: https://www.unitedquick.com/
|
| You can find bus contracts given to the owners of single
| busses though those firms do t have large web presences.
| chillingeffect wrote:
| Nice thing about this application is the predictability of the
| routes. And compared to city buses the ratio of time driving per
| regen is larger. I assume drain and recharge puts wear on the
| batteries?
| tpmx wrote:
| _Shorter routes and longer idle periods mean that school buses
| can be charged at lower intensities over longer periods of time
| than commercial vehicles that have to charge quickly to get back
| on the road_
|
| Most relevant sentence in this article.
| [deleted]
| sanp wrote:
| I still don't get that TCO for EV is higher than Diesel.
|
| On the consumer side, let's look at Tesla Model Y vs. Lexus RX
| 350. I am using "premium" makes on both sides of this equations.
| If we want to go with a cheaper ICE then it should be compared
| with a cheaper EV. Idea being, there is a reasonable comparison
| where EV comes out ahead on TCO.
|
| Cost / mile: $0.04 vs. $0.10 Difference in purchase cost: $55K
| (base model Lexus) vs $59K (base model). Include $7500 Fed Credit
| this comes to ~$56K (assuming a 35% marginal tax rate) Average
| miles per year: 12K. So fuel savings of ~$720 Even assuming a
| very generous cost of capital even TCO over 2 years beats ICE.
| That's before maintenance costs (which seem to be lower for EV).
| xxpor wrote:
| A tesla won't get the tax credit any more (they've sold too
| many cars). Unless that's changed with one of the covid
| packages.
| meragrin_ wrote:
| Doubt it. Whenever EVs have been mentioned, it has been
| specifically about union shops. Tesla does not have a union
| so they are evil.
| aaronax wrote:
| I guess you have shown that in the luxury segment the TCO comes
| out better for EVs. Many people are not buying $50k+ luxury
| vehicles. Care to run an estimate for something like what I was
| buying a year ago? I was in the market for a loaded 5 year old
| vehicle with 60-80k miles for $10-13k (Dodge Dart for example,
| also liked a few Ford Fusion options). There were options like
| this available, though I happened to stumble upon the
| apocryphal 13 year old 175k miles $1,000 Honda and went with
| that.
| rootusrootus wrote:
| When I leased our Bolt, the retail price was $23K. Costs me
| 1.7 cents a mile in fueling costs. It is a good bit nicer
| than an 80K Dodge Dart, of course, but it's a data point. I
| also have time-of-use rates, which helps.
|
| Anyway. Assuming 27 mpg for the Dart (this is what Fuelly
| says average Dart owners experience) and $4.67 gasoline (the
| US average from a few days ago), should cost around 17 cents
| a mile in gasoline. Assuming an average of 14.8 cents per kWh
| (the US average from February) and 3 miles per kWh (somewhat
| conservative, but close enough) for the Bolt, you'd be
| looking at 5 cents per mile in electricity.
|
| Not a perfect comparison, the Bolt would be brand new with a
| warranty, etc, but at least it's not a luxury EV comparison,
| just an appliance car like a Dart. You'd break even on costs
| at 76K miles.
|
| Of course, at that point the Bolt has just reached the
| mileage the Dart started at, and so it will quickly pull
| ahead in TCO. If you do a lot of road trips you might not
| like it, but if you primarily drive in the city you will
| really like not having to stop once a week to get gas.
| clomond wrote:
| TCOs for individual consumers will be vastly different
| depending on the parameters of the situation, with particular
| impact driven by volume of miles driven annually.
|
| Due to this, commercial fleets in my view have a much clearer
| picture here than personal vehicle decisions. This is also
| particularly driven by personal vehicle purchases being driven
| less by "TCO" in a strict sense but rather "what is my monthly
| payment".
| gregshap wrote:
| Tax credits are dollar for dollar reduction in taxes owed.
| There's no reason to apply a marginal tax rate.
| nickysielicki wrote:
| In what world is the maintenance cost for a fleet of EV busses
| going to be less than that of a diesel? There are two orders of
| magnitude more diesel mechanics than people qualified to work
| on EV drivetrains.
| ajford wrote:
| There's far less going on in a normal EV drivetrain, which
| kinda supports the lower maintenance cost.
|
| Fewer fluids required, just your differential and some
| coolant for the motors really.
|
| Given the specialization of parts, it's far more likely that
| any performed maintenance is going to be more of a swap for
| known-good parts and sending them off to the home-office for
| reconditioning.
| slfnflctd wrote:
| I think the argument is that EVs will require vastly less
| maintenance, which makes sense on paper. I'm not sure how
| well that will bear out in the near to mid term, though, as
| these are new designs which haven't been put through the
| paces yet.
|
| It's a pretty big transportation sector we're talking about
| (half a million of these buses in the US), so it will not be
| a fast transition and early adopters will be paying higher
| costs than later ones to iron out the kinks. Most districts
| are probably waiting for someone else to try it out first.
| akira2501 wrote:
| How many Diesel repair shops are there vs. heavy duty EV
| vehicle repair shops?
| Symbiote wrote:
| Plenty, according to the presentation linked elsewhere in
| this discussion.
|
| Cummins (the major manufacturer of engines, generators etc)
| will service the high voltage parts of the bus.
| itsoktocry wrote:
| > _I am using "premium" makes on both sides of this equations_
|
| I guess, but a "premium" Model Y doesn't have any features that
| a far lesser ICE doesn't have, with inferior build quality.
| That's kind of the point. A premium Honda, VW or Toyota SUV are
| better comparisons, and substantially cheaper. Of course, that
| makes the TCO much more competitive...
| fasteddie31003 wrote:
| I believe batteries and electric motors can replace almost all
| applications of gas engines. However, diesel engines still are a
| step too far now IMO. Most people have never operated a diesel
| engine. Their efficiency is very impressive. My 7,000 lbs truck
| with a Cummins diesel engine gets better MPGs than my partner's
| 4,000 lbs Mini Cooper Countryman.
| bsder wrote:
| Except that a school bus tends to operate a diesel in its worst
| conditions.
|
| Lots of idling. Lots of low RPM operation. Lots of stop and
| start wasting a lot of energy into the brakes.
|
| A school bus is practically engineered to be an EV propaganda
| piece.
| jtlienwis wrote:
| How much will they weigh compared to a Diesel bus? Road
| damage is to the fourth power of axle weight. Any cost
| savings may be just shifted to the road department for fixing
| pot holes. I think the VW EV is almost twice the weight of a
| same size ICE car. 16x the road damage. Plus, how much damage
| when this EV bus slides on the ice and hits something? Twice
| the damage if twice the weight.
| kube-system wrote:
| School bus weight is generally seen as a good thing,
| because we care more about keeping kids safe than road
| damage or damage to other vehicles.
| gbear605 wrote:
| The battery doesn't necessarily need to be that large,
| since the range can be small (<25 miles for most school
| districts assuming that they can charge during the day).
| Probably a school bus could get away with an battery the
| same size as one in a Tesla, so the weight of the rest of
| the bus probably dominates. Probably the weight of the
| students alone is a lot more when fully loaded.
| bsder wrote:
| It seems that these are the same weight. That's probably
| not a coincidence.
|
| This lists the GVWR for the diesels at up to 36,200 lbs.
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Bird_All_American
|
| This lists the GVWR for electrics at the same: https://asse
| ts.ctfassets.net/ucu418cgcnau/362sQcGinJzFxVqFh0...
|
| Electrics also tend to benefit from better traction in
| crummy conditions because the batteries create a fixed,
| lower center of gravity.
|
| Do note that the drive system for these EV buses is
| apparently built by Cummins. For Cummins to put the effort
| in, they see a reason.
| Animats wrote:
| Right. Plus it travels a known number of miles per day, and
| recharges at the same place each day.
|
| (Although, field trips?)
| danans wrote:
| > Most people have never operated a diesel engine. Their
| efficiency is very impressive.
|
| All else equal (vehicle class, size, performance, driving
| style), the operating cost per mile of an EV is 1/4 to 1/2 the
| operating cost per mile of a diesel or gasoline vehicle, even
| in states with very expensive electricity like California or
| Hawaii.
| ilikeatari wrote:
| Is there a specific data set you are referencing? How about
| other components like Ownership and Support?
| danans wrote:
| I've just done the math on my car operating costs. At
| today's gas prices (admittedly high due to the Ukraine
| war), the price of electricity in CA would have to more
| than triple for me to pay the same as I would for gas.
| Before the recent gas price spike it was like 2.25X to use
| gas.
|
| > How about other components like Ownership and Support?
|
| Do you mean depreciation and maintenance? Depreciation on
| recent EVs has been just like other types of vehicles in
| their respective classes. Granted, these are relatively new
| cars - there isn't much longitudinal data on EV
| maintenance, but every indication is that it should be less
| than ICE vehicles.
|
| And can you put a price on the great driving experience of
| an EV (flat power curve, low center of gravity, silent, no
| combustion smell)? Probably, but I haven't tried.
| stonogo wrote:
| My results are similar to yours. I don't know if you can
| put a price on silent, non-oil-based, clean-running
| driving experiences, but it does come with the charge-
| time pain point. I look forward to the five-minute refuel
| I left behind to get the other benefits of an EV...
| danans wrote:
| > but it does come with the charge-time pain point. I
| look forward to the five-minute refuel I left behind to
| get the other benefits of an EV...
|
| Since I charge at home, this is only a pain point on road
| trips (though diminishing with the growing number of high
| power chargers along highways). However, I understand how
| it's a pain for apartment dwellers who don't have their
| own charging stations.
|
| So we need better street-side public charging
| infrastructure for them - but also for single-family-home
| dwellers with a second car that doesn't fit in the
| driveway. Living in a single-family-home shouldn't be a
| precondition for driving an EV.
| Gracana wrote:
| What is your truck? RAM 3500s with Cummins diesels come in
| 7000lb configurations, but we're talking ~15mpg, nowhere close
| to a countryman.
| fasteddie31003 wrote:
| My 03 Ram 2500 gets 24 MPG
| Gracana wrote:
| That's incredible.
| https://www.fuelly.com/car/dodge/ram_2500/2003
| mywittyname wrote:
| Maybe they call him fasteddie because he drives so slow.
| ilikeatari wrote:
| Personally I am very exited about it but we lack data that does
| allow us to do proper TCO comparison of ICE vs EV on the heavy
| duty side. Also how does V2G economics actually work if you are
| trying to optimize for the lowest charging rate (usually during
| night to avoid peak)? If you are in V2G mode after 6 pm i assume
| you would need to start charging at night during cheapest rates
| and assure that the bus is charged by 5 am. Wouldn't this require
| 1 to 1 charger to bus ratio as you might not have enough time to
| swap? Wouldn't then infrastructure costs(chargers that are build
| and concrete around it) skyrocket?
| sokoloff wrote:
| Any overnight charging solution almost surely needs a 1-to-1
| ratio anyway, because you're probably not going to pay an
| expensive and unreliable human to plug and unplug buses
| overnight every night when a charger will last 10+ years.
| You're already paying the bus driver to park the bus and to
| drive it away in the morning. Add a minute of bus driver labor
| to plug it in and a minute to unplug it in the morning.
| JumpCrisscross wrote:
| > _we lack data that does allow us to do proper TCO comparison
| of ICE vs EV on the heavy duty side_
|
| These districts have transferred that risk to the provider.
| Which seems reasonable.
| ilikeatari wrote:
| Yes, makes sense from the districts perspective, but I meant
| from sustainability of the business model perspective.
| bell-cot wrote:
| Hmm...buses that (per the article) cost 2x or 3x what diesel ones
| would. From a company that's raising a whole lotta $$$ from VC's.
| And (plausibly) school districts will get rid of their old diesel
| bus fleets when they switch over...
|
| Is anyone else suspecting an "of course we'll loose money like
| crazy, until we hit 'em with the massive price increase" business
| model?
|
| EDIT: Wow, huge response. 3 points to add:
|
| - Yes, kids not breathing fumes is better...but that doesn't
| change the company's nor the school district's finances.
|
| - No, I have no good data on whether the "vastly lower TCO will
| cover the higher up front cost..." theory is 100% correct, or
| utter BS.
|
| - My one not-too-close data point: A friend worked for a
| metropolitan bus system ~2011. She said they were getting rid of
| their "~1.4 up-front cost" diesel-electric hybrid buses - because
| the _real_ TCO was considerably worse than the older, straight-
| diesel buses.
| [deleted]
| ihsw wrote:
| scythe wrote:
| Frankly, if they rip off school districts in order to keep kids
| from inhaling nitrogen dioxide, that's still a better business
| model than most of the ones I've heard.
| mirntyfirty wrote:
| I think that depends on the extent to which they rip them
| off.
| scythe wrote:
| I guess you're probably right. But it seems like we're
| looking at a small factor (2-3) applied to the usual price
| of a school bus. Of course, there are also reasons it might
| not be a ripoff, as others brought up (lower ops costs,
| economy of scale). I just felt like highlighting the
| problems with prioritizing price over all else around the
| health of primary schoolchildren.
| jandrese wrote:
| The upfront price difference should be offset in the long term
| by buying cheap electricity instead of expensive diesel.
| vardump wrote:
| > Hmm...buses that (per the article) cost 2x or 3x what diesel
| ones would.
|
| What about when you consider total life cycle costs? Diesel
| fuel costs often many times of cost of the vehicle over its
| lifespan.
|
| Fuel costs will likely increase quite a bit in the future.
| coryrc wrote:
| > She said they were getting rid of their "~1.4 up-front cost"
| diesel-electric hybrid buses - because the real TCO was
| considerably worse
|
| In my city, the original hybrids used Toyota Prius batteries
| and deep cycled them, which they weren't designed for, killing
| them and requiring regular replacements. That couldn't have
| been good for the budget.
| pengaru wrote:
| The "subscribed" buses will be privately owned and operated,
| they'll be increasingly filled with advertising and other
| predatory bullshit for exploiting the passengers.
| gruez wrote:
| >they'll be increasingly filled with advertising and other
| predatory bullshit for exploiting the passengers
|
| What's this based on ? AFAIK many school districts already
| contract out their school bus service. Are we seeing that in
| those cases?
| [deleted]
| AlgorithmicTime wrote:
| Literally all the school buses in my area are operated by
| private companies which contract with the local public school
| districts. None of them are full of advertising.
| elliekelly wrote:
| "You're only two bus rides away from your next Robux reward!"
| krasin wrote:
| Don't forget a snack machine with sweets right inside the
| bus.
| tentacleuno wrote:
| Or... A cold drinks machine, with all the bus windows
| locked shut. I'm sure I remember something about McDonalds
| putting _more_ salt in the chips [ / food] so people buy a
| drink.
| Nasrudith wrote:
| So like city buses?
| arcticbull wrote:
| Not really, no. City busses recognize revenue from
| advertising and use it to subsidize fares. Being a public
| service, the public benefits. On the other hand, private
| bus fleets with private advertisements on loan to school
| districts will recognize that advertising revenue as
| profit, benefiting shareholders. Not everything needs a
| profit motive.
| roughly wrote:
| I don't know what the split is elsewhere, but it's worth
| noting that for BART in the Bay Area, at least, makes
| something like $10m/yr, compared to nearly $500m/yr in
| actual fares - so, in exchange for approximately 2% of
| annual revenues, we get BART trains and stations covered
| in ads.
|
| Edit: Thought to look this up for SFMTA - 2020 proposed
| budget (projections as of 2019, chosen because it's the
| last "normal" year) - total revenue $1.2Bn, "Advertising,
| interest, and service fees" $54m.
| woodruffw wrote:
| I think that's pretty unlikely, at least with schoolbuses.
| The US has laws around child privacy and advertising that
| companies easily flaunt online, but are much more difficult
| to flaunt when your product is a physical bus.
|
| OTOH, I would not be surprised to see these buses rusting in
| a storage lot within a decade because these firms have closed
| up shop and some random server somewhere is no longer
| responding to requests. I hope (but am not hopeful) that
| municipal and state governments take measures during
| procurement to ensure that they aren't being turned into
| captive customers.
| roywiggins wrote:
| In the '90s the dairy industry managed to get "got milk"
| posters into approximately every US elementary school.
| gruez wrote:
| Was that through private businesses, or through the
| government?
| gbear605 wrote:
| In my school district, the milk producer just gave a
| slight discount on the milk they sold to the school. They
| were still making a profit, just slightly less per unit
| (and presumably more overall since sales went up).
| treeman79 wrote:
| Milk was my one true vice. Swear the stuff is more
| addictive them anything. Yes I'm boring.
|
| Spent many years thinking it was healthy. Much regret.
| PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
| I always found it sort of disgusting, but as an adult
| discovered that 1 tablespoon of Valhrona powdered cocoa,
| 1 tablespoon of Equal Exchange baking cocoa and 2
| tablespoons of sugar in 1.75 cups of grass-fed organic
| whole milk deals with the bad part.
| AdamN wrote:
| Captivate screens behind each seat with 'educational'
| content and pre-roll/banner ads. "We're giving kids extra
| education through new technology and they also learn about
| the value of chocolate sugar milk at the same time!"
| Johnny555 wrote:
| The average lifetime of a schoolbus is 10 - 12 years, so if
| they do manage to keep this service going for a decade,
| that's pretty good -- in 10 years the schol district would
| have been ready to refresh their fleet anyway, and
| hopefully the reason this business can't survive long-term
| is that electric buses become cheaper and ubiquitous.
| adgjlsfhk1 wrote:
| Part of the reason for the 10-12 year lifespan is that
| ICE motors are really complicated and at a certain point,
| it's cheaper to throw out the bus than pay for motor
| repairs. EV motors last a lot longer and are a lot easier
| to maintain.
| Amezarak wrote:
| The electric motor might last, all the electronics,
| probably not.
| akomtu wrote:
| Are batteries going to last this long? And batteries are
| usually 50% of the vehicle price.
| pengaru wrote:
| They should really be leasing the batteries and buying
| buses having easily swapped batteries conforming to a
| standard a competitive power systems market can cater to.
| sockaddr wrote:
| While not ideal, the alternative is kids continuing to sit in
| buses that idle for long periods of time slowly leaking diesel
| exhaust into the cabin area (at least that was the case with
| the Bluebird models I rode as a kid), that can't be good.
| bnt wrote:
| Yea, here the batteries catch fire and a bunch of kids burn
| to death. Grim, but possible.
| kube-system wrote:
| Fire risk is a major reason why we already put as many as 8
| or more emergency exits on full size school busses.
| olivermarks wrote:
| https://youtu.be/J6eS6JzBn0k Lithium-Ion Battery Fires in
| Electric Vehicles - Safety Risks to Emergency
| RespondersNTSBGov
|
| Thermal runaway, stranded energy and battery reignition
| should preclude EV usage to transport children until
| adequate safety measures are put in place. EV car fires
| are intense, high voltage and severe. A bus full of
| children fire doesn't bear thinking about.
| lostlogin wrote:
| Ever been near a car fire? They burn pretty well and
| you'll feel it from the other side of a multilane road.
| I've also seen buses burn. Is there a reason to think
| that more kids are going to burn in electric busses than
| ICE ones?
| olivermarks wrote:
| Ever been near an EV fire?
|
| They burn with the equivalent of a 220v welder across the
| whole battery skateboard, will literally melt aluminum
| wheels and body parts and require 20 tons of water to
| temporarily extinguish. There's a huge difference between
| an ICE vehicle fire, which is essentially rubber,
| upholstery and plastics burning sometime compounded by
| gasoline vapor and an EV thermal runaway trapped energy
| event. I think all EVs should be required to have manual
| escape locks etc at a minimum.
| https://youtu.be/J6eS6JzBn0k
| thehappypm wrote:
| Right, because diesel buses are totally not flammable at
| all.
| PaulHoule wrote:
| I bought a number of plastic "jerry cans" that all had
| stickers on them saying you shouldn't use gasoline or
| diesel to start fires.
|
| Oddly the reason why is different for the two fluids.
| Gasoline can catch fire quickly and form a fireball,
| whereas diesel is hard to ignite and won't help start a
| fire.
|
| This movie
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_5th_Wave_(film)
|
| has a scene where the kids set a school bus on fire with
| the fuel which isn't realistic.
| sokoloff wrote:
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nL10C7FSbE compares the
| flammability of several types of fuels.
|
| 2m08s for Jet-A. 3m50s for #2 diesel. 6m03s for heating
| oil. 7m30s for kerosene (all those are basically the same
| and surprising to most how not flammable they are in
| liquid form). 10m15s for avgas. 11m30s for auto gas.
| lstodd wrote:
| That's some bullshit video.
|
| All you need is some tissue and a gas soldering iron or
| equivalent lighter. Lights up in under one second.
| Johnny555 wrote:
| Not likely, not without being in a serious accident.
| Despite the Chevy Bolt's highly publicized battery fires
| (which did not kill anyone), EV batteries don't usually
| burst into flames unprovoked. The battery will be well
| protected in a school bus frame.
| pavon wrote:
| ICE vehicles have orders of magnitude higher fire risk than
| EV. https://www.kbb.com/car-news/study-electric-vehicles-
| involve...
| loudmax wrote:
| I think it's important to keep the electrification and
| subscription aspects distinct.
|
| Electrification of bus fleets is an absolute good. Electric
| buses may cost more in the short run, but for the sake of
| children's health, not to mention the world they live in,
| school districts should be dumping diesel in favor of
| electric as soon as they can afford to do so. As taxpayers we
| should be ready to foot the bill.
|
| There are real concerns with privatization of school bus
| fleets though. Safety obviously, but also advertising and
| marketing to children as other posters have pointed out. If a
| company offered school districts a subscription model with
| diesel buses we'd be rightfully suspicious of where this
| could lead. We should maintain these suspicions even as we
| encourage phasing out diesel fleets in favor of electric.
| GauntletWizard wrote:
| School bus fleets are already significantly privatized[1].
| Not making judgement calls there, just pointing out that
| ship has sailed.
|
| [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Student_(United_Stat
| es)
| michael1999 wrote:
| It is a different calculation for the school board. For them,
| the costs of retraining staff, retooling a shop, increasing
| parts inventory are all big costs. Plus the risk of buying a
| bunch of lemons.
|
| Leasing them with performance guarantees moves not just the
| costs, but also the _risks_ to a specialist better suited to
| carrying them.
|
| I don't know if this firm is legit, but the deal could make
| sense.
| ZeroGravitas wrote:
| This is a fairly standard reframing when your product has lower
| TCO but higher upfront costs.
|
| If people just look at the upfront cost, they have that 2x or
| 3x gut reaction and just switch off.
|
| Some nerdier types might draw up a spreadsheet and know exactly
| how many months they'd expect to break even and start saving.
|
| People familiar with spreadsheets probably also don't have that
| much trouble getting loans and paying them back on time, and
| doing even more sums to see if that makes financial sense.
|
| But your average school bus buyer perhaps needs someone else to
| do all that for them, hedge the risk and present it to them as
| an immediate saving on their monthly spend.
|
| People have sold rooftop solar this way, or replaced kerosene
| lamps in Africa with solar and batteries, and EVs Vs monthly
| Car payment plus fuel.
| AnonCoward4 wrote:
| I want to see that spreadsheet.
| roughly wrote:
| It's not just the cost over time, it's the availability of
| capital in large clumps - also known as "the cost of being
| poor:" It may be 5x cheaper in the long run to pay 3x the
| cost today, but if you don't have 3x the cost today, well,
| good luck.
| JumpCrisscross wrote:
| Capex <=> Opex swaps are pretty common, and it's not just a
| matter of poverty. (It's why airlines lease their planes.)
| Swap "subscribe" with "lease" and this article becomes less
| interesting.
| roughly wrote:
| > Swap "subscribe" with "lease" and this article becomes
| less interesting
|
| To VCs, too
| anonymouse008 wrote:
| Yeah, and school's budgets are cash tight, with
| comparatively little ability to fundraise, so any large
| cash transaction will be DOA.
|
| The swap should take place, and I'm now wondering why
| this hasn't occurred.
| mywittyname wrote:
| Schools often issue bonds to cover large purchases. Plus,
| sometimes states/fed will toss them grants.
| itsoktocry wrote:
| > _This is a fairly standard reframing when your product has
| lower TCO but higher upfront costs._
|
| I'd say it's the opposite a lot of times. EVs are one such
| product. People will say, "sure I'm paying 20k more for the
| car, but I'll make it up in fuel savings and zero
| maintenance!" without ever calculating how much fuel and
| maintenance you'd _actually_ have to use to break even. Then,
| of course, there is the regulatory and temporal risk that
| energy costs _today_ aren 't what they might be down the
| road, and that there are some high-ticket items an EV can
| have fail itself.
|
| It's hardly ever a no-brainer, because the invisible hand
| tends to make it so.
|
| > _People have sold rooftop solar this way_
|
| So many companies have gone bust because of this.
| [deleted]
| cpwright wrote:
| I'm not sure why you would assume that the average school bus
| buyer can't do a spreadsheet. Our local suburban NY school
| district is fairly run-of-the mill, and has a budget of $84
| million with several million dollars of that being for
| transportation. We have our own busses and drivers, and they
| spend about a quarter million dollars a year on diesel fuel.
|
| The Superintendent for business affairs that has an MBA from
| Columbia and earns $231,000, and should clearly be able to
| handle a spreadsheet and then making the yearly powerpoint
| presentations.
| [deleted]
| mywittyname wrote:
| As much flak as people give "the government" for poor
| spending, there's actually a huge amount of auditing and
| checks in place for purchases by officials.
|
| There's no way a decision like this gets made without a
| several "independent assessments" happening as a CYA move.
| splitstud wrote:
| bend-or-end wrote:
| >That starts with phasing the purchase and deployment of
| electric school buses -- which still cost two to three times
| more than their diesel counterparts -- to take advantage of
| expected declines in cost over the coming years, McIntyre said.
|
| Sounds like the model is to be the first mover and being
| entrenched by the time it's profitable without a price hike
| joe_the_user wrote:
| A fair portion of school districts already contract their buses
| to First Student and similar bus companies. And if this company
| were to raise it's rates drastically, the districts could
| switch to First Student.
| aurizon wrote:
| A niche opened up, buy ebusses, lock school boards into 10-20
| year contracts to save 10-20% on fuels costs and have zero
| capital/maintenance costs. The bus company lives on the ~~60-70%
| fuels cost saving and finances the bus fleet. Typical contract to
| see to various users with short terms viewpoints. I would like to
| see what the board savings are in a sample of a lease - most will
| be under NDA's I expect?
| rootusrootus wrote:
| > most will be under NDA's I expect?
|
| What are the odds that school districts are even legally
| allowed to sign such an NDA?
| asdff wrote:
| Niche is already exploited. School boards have already been
| contracting out busing. Diesel/CNG contractors will just retool
| and charge more for green tax to school boards that want to
| pay.
| colincooke wrote:
| Due to the usage patterns of the bus fleet I wonder if they could
| be used for some vehicle to grid [1] power bank on
| weekends/during weekday downtime? It might shorten the lifetime
| of the batteries themselves but would be a nice additional
| revenue stream.
|
| [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle-to-grid
| PaulHoule wrote:
| I ride on an electric bus a few times a week..
|
| https://tcatbus.com/its-electric-on-the-ithaca-commons/
| olivermarks wrote:
| 'Out of the roughly 500,000 school buses in the U.S., only about
| 0.2 percent -- just over 1,000 -- were electric as of the end of
| 2021'
|
| I can see EV buses being practical for future urban short
| distance pickup and drop off, but the longer haul rural routes,
| especially in cold climates, seem a long way off to the EV
| obsessed as a solution to anything. Huge subsidies and grants may
| seduce a few school boards but the reality is diesel loads
| replaced by EV are no where near ready for prime time.
|
| What could immediately help the local pollution aspects of EV
| heavy vehicles is some sort of tire particulate collection device
| to stop spread. Tire pollution is a huge problem that is probably
| more important than where energy is obtained from near or far
| https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/03/20200308-emissionsa...
| rconti wrote:
| So what you're saying is, there's a huge market opportunity
| between "0.2%" and "everything other than longer haul routes in
| cold climates"?
| rootusrootus wrote:
| Average total route length is 75 miles per day. A Blue Bird
| electric bus, as a comparison point, has a range of 120 miles.
| So not all routes will be feasible with that bus, but a large
| number will be a perfect fit.
| tigeba wrote:
| Just as an interesting note, our school district has switched the
| entire fleet (around 150) to CNG. This has supposedly reduced
| opex substantially over diesel. Also a huge reduction in
| particulates. Probably not as clean as EV but an improvement .
| Our district owns all their vehicles, but I believe this is not
| common.
| caseysoftware wrote:
| Busses as a Service from a venture-backed company in a
| ridiculously volatile market..
|
| What happens if/when they run out of funding?
|
| Having a business productivity app go out of business with an
| "amazing journey" post is irritating but there are 50 other apps
| that will take their place. Introducing "as a service" here where
| there are serious legal and even civil rights issues in play is
| radically different.
| bobthepanda wrote:
| I mean, this is how aircraft and trains (and yes, even buses)
| get leased these days, particularly in the EU.
|
| Vehicle depreciation is a massive headache.
| mostly_harmless wrote:
| For those questioning the feasibility, 100% electric school buses
| are already on the road in Montreal. I see them frequently, and
| they seem to handle our crappy roads and winters fine.
| wolverine876 wrote:
| Why would electric buses have more problems on winter roads
| than ICE buses?
| krallja wrote:
| It's cold in the winter.
| ajford wrote:
| Cold air impacting heath & capacity on the Li batteries,
| perhaps? Lithium batts tend to be finicky about their
| temperatures. Even my PHEV chevy volt de-rates the capacity
| if the ambient air temps hit less than 36*F.
| MengerSponge wrote:
| The secondary costs of running a diesel fleet are also huge!
| Diesel motors generate a substantial amount of fine particulate
| that is unhealthy for anybody, and particularly unhealthy for
| children.
|
| https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC121970/
|
| Even if an electric fleet is the same cost, changing over would
| save _tons_ of money and alleviate _tons_ of suffering. It 's the
| right thing to do for any ethical reason you can consider.
|
| Unless, I suppose, you're intent on making the poor suffer.
| Diesel buses are very cost-effective at accomplishing that.
| fiftyfifty wrote:
| Even in terms of primary cost, diesel buses are expensive to
| maintain. My FIL was a mechanic for the local school district
| for 15 years, so I got a little insight into that aspect of the
| district. Our medium sized school district, 4 big high schools
| and all the feeder schools for them, employs around 6 full time
| mechanics plus their manager with all the equipment and the
| facility to work on the buses year round plus parts etc. It's
| not difficult to imagine that cost alone adds at least $1
| million to our district's budget annually. In addition they
| have to have some percentage of extra buses because they are
| constantly rotating buses out for maintenance. They also have
| to have at least one extra bus and driver on standby every day
| because diesel buses breakdown regularly during a route and
| they have to go out with a second bus and pick up the kids and
| finish the route.
|
| So if a district can outsource part of that maintenance cost,
| and electric buses prove to be lower maintenance and more
| reliable that their diesel counterparts, there are significant
| savings to be had for the school districts.
| mtgx wrote:
| > Diesel motors generate a substantial amount of fine
| particulate that is unhealthy for anybody, and particularly
| unhealthy for children.
|
| This is one of the biggest issues with US' private healthcare
| system.
|
| The U.S. government just doesn't feel that direct "cost" in the
| same way countries that have to pay to fix the health of their
| citizens do. This is why you see a lot of other countries put
| higher taxes on sugar, gasoline, diesel, etc. Because they see
| a direct correlation between the consumption of those things
| and them having to invest more in their national healthcare
| system out of their tax money.
|
| Meanwhile, in the US, since it's the citizens that pay out of
| pocket, that money still goes into the economy, so it's kind of
| all the same to the government whether or not they get sick or
| not. They may notice some correlation in the long-term, but the
| negative effects of these things are not nearly as urgent to
| the government.
| asdff wrote:
| Do school districts still use diesel? CNG seems pretty popular
| these days.
| jjtheblunt wrote:
| (Disclaimer: have driven pure electric for going on 7.5 years)
|
| It may be more complex: electricity generation is very dirty in
| some regions, such as where coal is burned.
|
| Is it more dirty than diesel emissions? I have no idea, but old
| diesels were nasty.
| wolverine876 wrote:
| We can make power plants cleaner, and generally we do (but
| not nearly fast enough).
| sp332 wrote:
| It's much cleaner, even after accounting for losses in
| electricity transport and storage. Power plants are just much
| more efficient than mobile internal combustion engines.
| mywittyname wrote:
| Let's not forget the diesel emissions cheating scandal.
| Diesel engines are so amazingly difficult deal with from an
| emissions perspective that it's basically impossible to
| build one with an emissions system that doesn't require
| constant maintenance (filters, additives).
|
| Diesel emissions requirements for commercial vehicles are
| much more lenient for this reason.
| shiftpgdn wrote:
| Yes because the coal burning is done at a central location
| with fairly advanced technology to capture dirty
| hydrocarbons. The tailpipe is spreading soot all over.
| [deleted]
| MengerSponge wrote:
| No, it is not more dirty than diesel emissions. Coal plants
| are stationary, so they can install _huge_ scrubbing
| apparatus. Diesels have to drag whatever cleanup mechanism
| they have installed with them, which is inherently limiting.
|
| Also, those coal plants aren't parked outside primary schools
| idling, and schoolkids aren't spending hours sitting around
| their smokestacks.
|
| Don't get me wrong: Coal is dirty as sin and radioactive as
| hell. Coal delenda est.
| kemiller wrote:
| Engineering Explained did the math:
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RhtiPefVzM
|
| Spoiler: Well-to-wheels, BEV cars are better than the best
| gas cars (top end prius) even if the source electricity is
| 100% coal.
|
| The best is still not driving, but it's a step in the right
| direction.
| mcv wrote:
| Not driving would mean smaller schools closer to home, and
| infrastructure that allows kids to ride their bike to
| school. It's completely doable, but it does require people
| to care about more than just cars.
| rootusrootus wrote:
| It would significantly expand taxes, and that nearly
| always faces stiff opposition with voters. Especially
| when it is an open-ended increase.
| thethethethe wrote:
| > It would significantly expand taxes
|
| How exactly? Do you have any examples? Also, have you
| ever seen the price of car infrastructure? I would be
| willing to bet that denser walkable urban infrastructure
| projects are waaaaay cheaper than building and
| maintaining sprawling road, sewage, and power
| transmission networks. Sprawl is seriously draining the
| finances of many small cities and towns in the US.
| There's a whole book about it:
| https://www.google.com/search?q=strong+towns
|
| You could also just watch this smug video
| https://youtu.be/7IsMeKl-Sv0
| fiftyfifty wrote:
| There's also the fact that coal power plants tend to be
| pretty far from heavily populated areas. Even if the US
| power grid were 100% coal (which it is not) this would
| still be a win as far as cleaner air goes for a significant
| portion of the population. There's a big difference between
| a coal burning power plant's emissions 50 miles away and a
| school bus idling right outside your house in terms of air
| quality. That's not even counting the air scrubbers and
| particulate capturing systems many coal power plants are
| required to have. The bottom line is the exhaust coming out
| of a coal burning power plant is much cleaner than even a
| brand new diesel school bus, let alone all the older buses
| still in service.
| Ourgon wrote:
| > Is it more dirty than diesel emissions? I have no idea, but
| old diesels were nasty.
|
| When comparing old diesels to old coal power plants the power
| plants win by being more efficient but both belch out a lot
| of pollution. They also have the advantage of burning coal, a
| fuel which is available in abundance and does not need as
| much processing as crude oil does to be used in diesel
| engines.
|
| When comparing old diesels to modern coal power plants this
| is true at an even higher level since those modern power
| plants filter out fly ash and are more efficient.
|
| When comparing modern diesels to old coal-fired power plants
| the diesels win by being less polluting and possibly on terms
| of efficiency.
|
| Modern diesels versus modern coal power plants goes to the
| power plants again since these win on terms of efficiency -
| especially when using combined heat & power - over the
| diesels.
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