[HN Gopher] Japan's 'killing stone' splits in two
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Japan's 'killing stone' splits in two
        
       Author : ksec
       Score  : 184 points
       Date   : 2022-03-07 13:59 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.theguardian.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.theguardian.com)
        
       | klyrs wrote:
       | Before and after photos on wikipedia :)
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sessho-seki
        
       | wildzzz wrote:
       | All the old pictures of the rock show a big crack that looks like
       | where it split recently. Inevitable event for for sure but it's a
       | funk folktale.
        
       | CoastalCoder wrote:
       | This (superficially) reminds me of the stone idol "Ungit", in
       | C.S. Lewis' "Till we have Faces" [0].
       | 
       | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Till_We_Have_Faces
        
       | ffggvv wrote:
       | quick the hokage needs to trap the fox spirit in a little boy
        
       | a_shovel wrote:
       | I saw some discussion about how in (some versions of) the myth,
       | Tamamo-no-Mae was purified and became good upon touching the
       | stone, not trapped inside it.
       | 
       | Then, they started speculating that maybe her evil and malice
       | were split from her, and they became its own evil kami, and _that
       | 's_ what's trapped inside the rock.
       | 
       | The funny part is that it was clear they were making this up on
       | the spot, not constructing it from historical myths. When given
       | the opportunity to tell a story about an evil spirit sealed away
       | a thousand years ago in a magic rock that kills you if you touch
       | it, who has now escaped, which we know because the rock split in
       | half _in real life_ , and who is now presumably causing chaos
       | across the countryside, people aren't going to let minor
       | technicalities get in the way. (I wouldn't let them get in the
       | way, either.)
        
       | notjustanymike wrote:
       | Meanwhile, EA has blamed the rock for the bumpy Battlefield 2042
       | launch.
        
       | everyone wrote:
       | This is so dumb. We don't need extra made-up stress on people on
       | top of the real shit we have to deal with.
        
       | Imnimo wrote:
       | Probably shouldn't have just left it sitting outside where it
       | could break then. Absolute negligence.
        
       | AdmiralAsshat wrote:
       | Some anime company just got a premise for their next hit show.
        
         | ksec wrote:
         | Oh that was done a long long time ago. Take a look at Ushio and
         | Tora. The story Tamamo-no-Mae would attach herself to emperors
         | and drive them mad, causing them to commit massacres.
        
           | AdmiralAsshat wrote:
           | Sure, but I'm assuming that was Feudal Japan setting.
           | 
           | You could easily have another one with a _modern_ setting,
           | since the rock splits in 2022.
        
             | ksec wrote:
             | Woah...... Ok I am sold.
        
         | ihuman wrote:
         | Tamamo-no-Mae is already a popular anime character due to the
         | Fate franchise
        
         | joshstrange wrote:
         | I'm pretty sure Natruto is literally "about" (about in the
         | sense that it's what starts the story) this. I've only seen a
         | handful of episodes though and it was a while ago so I'm not
         | sure.
        
           | the_doctah wrote:
           | Naruto is the host of the nine-tailed fox spirit. Though it
           | has a different name in the show (Kurama) and there are 8
           | other tailed beasts. So it is similar but different.
        
       | roughly wrote:
       | Yeah, yeah - get in line, buddy.
        
       | HNDen21 wrote:
       | Interesting... Started reading Change Agent by Daniel Suarez last
       | week.. and it's in that book that I first heard about the nine-
       | tailed fox
        
       | arielweisberg wrote:
       | I blame Tanjiro https://kimetsu-no-
       | yaiba.fandom.com/wiki/Episode_3
       | 
       | Timing can't be a coincidence.
        
       | h2odragon wrote:
       | I guess someone shoulda glued it back together when it cracked
       | open? Is it too late to glue it back together now?
       | 
       | "For lack of some caulk civilization was lost"
        
       | dvngnt_ wrote:
       | have they tried sealing the spirit inside of a newborn baby yet?
        
         | vitiral wrote:
         | Preferably from a village tribe of Ninjas.
        
           | t-writescode wrote:
           | Hidden amongst some trees or tree-related objects. And then
           | leaf them all alone
        
       | Kretinsky wrote:
       | I see people saying "it's just water that made the rock crack,
       | nothing is goign to happen".
       | 
       | While I understand this point of view, I personnaly think
       | religion, mythology and beliefs such as this one give much more
       | flavor and diversity to the world than what rational thought will
       | ever produce. Religious people made magnificent temples,
       | cathedrals, songs, paintings and so on : what if this way of
       | thought was in fact beneficial for societies, in some aspects?
        
         | toyg wrote:
         | You personally hold the same views exposed in the XIX century
         | by the Romantic movement.
        
           | t-writescode wrote:
           | You have a _lot_ of karma, so I imagine you 're not a troll,
           | but I would love to know more information about what you've
           | said here. I imagine it carries with it some deep, meaningful
           | info.
        
         | devwastaken wrote:
         | Confirmation bias, religion was the dominant thinking for a
         | long time, therefore people built things in its name. Now we
         | build cathedrals of engineering every day simply to explore the
         | universe. Constructs far more complex and diverse in people.
        
           | w-j-w wrote:
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | stjohnswarts wrote:
         | Religion is poison to the mind. It shuts down your ability to
         | consider things rationally. Thinking Putin is a demon possessed
         | dictator is going to be a much worse frame of mind than simply
         | considering him a deranged despot who needs to be treated as
         | such. Religious people didn't make those things, crazy rich
         | people abused the poor and took their money, labor, and time to
         | build those "magnificent temples and palaces" when instead they
         | could have lived up to those elements of their religions about
         | being compassionate and generous to each other and looked out
         | for humanity's welfare. Instead they built monuments to their
         | pride and abused the trust of the religiously devout. The
         | golden rule is great advice except those in power never really
         | pay any attention to it.
        
         | avz wrote:
         | > give much more flavor and diversity to the world than what
         | rational thought will ever produce.
         | 
         | I don't know. The religious and mythological concepts such as
         | punishment, judgment, sacrifice, angels, daemons and elves look
         | like a derivative reflection of humans and their society. By
         | comparison, the concepts from science and technology such as
         | force fields, wavefunctions, wormholes and black holes seem
         | genuinely novel and weird.
         | 
         | Personally, I would certainly not give up on the scientific
         | truth - often in conflict with religion and mythology - to
         | enjoy some of that mythological flavor.
        
         | MildlySerious wrote:
         | Hardly anyone with some nuance thinks of religions and related
         | beliefs as exclusively bad, I think. That doesn't mean that
         | there is not plenty of surface area for people to be
         | overexposed to the negative aspects of these beliefs, leading
         | to cynical takes and the perceived need to shoot down any
         | semblance of it. Regardless of the side one is on, those
         | comments rarely add something of substance to a given
         | conversation, though.
        
           | drewcoo wrote:
           | And nuanced does not mean more correct.
        
             | cgriswald wrote:
             | Whether the nuanced view is more or less correct depends
             | entirely on whether your view of correctness is black-and-
             | white or more nuanced.
             | 
             | Suppose I spill a bunch of puzzle pieces on a table and ask
             | two friends to tell me what picture is on the puzzle. My
             | friend Alice blurts out "Elephant" because she has seen a
             | lot of grey pieces. My friend Bob spends more time and
             | looks beyond just the color, at the shapes and the other
             | colors present and determines the image is Fort Knox.
             | 
             | In this case does it matter what is actually on the puzzle?
             | Even if Alice gets it right, she's basically just guessing
             | in the dark. She's ignoring all kinds of other evidence and
             | reaching a conclusion. Does she deserve a reward if she
             | happens to have guessed correctly despite not developing an
             | understanding of what she's actually seeing? (Put another
             | way, is real life like a gameshow?) Conversely, is Bob
             | 'less correct' for having taken the time to understand
             | other details of the image?
             | 
             | I say, no. I don't think Alice _can_ be correct here. Her
             | view can only align with truth _coincidentally_. That she
             | got lucky this time has no meaning.
        
           | olivejun wrote:
           | Honestly I thought the same thing about your comment tbh lol
           | 
           | I don't understand what's negative about the folklore. I feel
           | as if you're conflating this folk tale to an organized
           | religion or something.
        
             | MildlySerious wrote:
             | _> I feel as if you're conflating this folk tale to an
             | organized religion or something._
             | 
             | The comment I replied to reads "religion, mythology and
             | beliefs such as this one".
        
           | stjohnswarts wrote:
           | Sorry man I've lived long enough to see very bad people use
           | religion to explain what they do or to forgive themselves for
           | awful things that they do. I have met very few "saintly"
           | people over the course of things. Luckily most people (at
           | least in the west) don't give religion that much time in
           | their thoughts and general don't shape their lives around it.
        
             | hunterb123 wrote:
             | The nicest people I've met and the strangers who helped me
             | when I needed it were religious. I don't think anecdotes
             | can be used to accuse a massive group of people of
             | wrongdoing. Religious people are people, judge the
             | individual. And I don't think forgiving yourself is a bad
             | thing. The only other options are kill yourself or wallow
             | in guilt for the rest of your life. Just because you
             | forgave yourself doesn't mean there wasn't consequences or
             | guilt felt.
        
           | packetlost wrote:
           | I think there are some religions that are a net-negative on
           | society, their members, etc. Most religions are _probably_
           | not in that category though. I only say this because I grew
           | up in a cult that has had lasting impacts on my social and
           | mental health despite leaving almost a decade ago and I have
           | nothing good to say about that particular organization.
        
             | stjohnswarts wrote:
             | They absolutely are. They have been used for thousands of
             | years to hold back the populous and abused by leaders who
             | manipulate it to get what they want. I'm not saying
             | atheists don't do bad things either, it's just they don't
             | justify it as "the will of God(s)". I think by and large
             | religion has an awful track record down through history and
             | has actively attempted to retard human progress and
             | learning, they want to be the only source of "truth"
        
         | bsedlm wrote:
         | It's certainly more 'fun' to wake up everyday in a word in
         | which this demon might have escaped than in one in which you
         | may only look forwards to the next opportunity to consume goods
         | and services.
        
         | xboxnolifes wrote:
         | > Religious people made magnificent temples, cathedrals, songs,
         | paintings and so on
         | 
         | Non-religious people may not have made temples or cathedrals,
         | but I can promise you they have made songs, paintings,
         | theaters, other random impressive looking buildings, and so on.
         | The only things that really prevents the existence of more
         | massive, impressive looking buildings is current worry about
         | sustainability, safety, accessibility, and not having the
         | budget of the entire Catholic/Christian/Other church to build
         | them.
        
           | moltke wrote:
        
           | DyslexicAtheist wrote:
           | what if non-religious people are actually the most religious
           | of them all. humor me. I'm not a religious person and demand
           | scientific facts for anything I want to understand and
           | believe that there is a rational explanation for everything
           | even we do not yet agree on the science behind it.
           | 
           | While different religions all still agree on the idea of a
           | higher power to explain the unexplained, my believe system is
           | the most radical of all. Because it leaves no room for any
           | other gods except science. I don't just dismiss their gods as
           | false, but also dismiss the whole underlying structure all
           | religions are built on, but without being aware (or if so I'm
           | dismissing it) that my belief is just another religion.
        
             | mattnewton wrote:
             | I think this framing gives undue weight to the fact that
             | the majority of people historically identified as
             | religious, without examining the number of confounding
             | reasons for that (like it being the best theory previously,
             | or the threat of being put to death for not identifying as
             | the regions majority religion, etc). I think this is
             | basically an appeal to authority argument no?
        
               | DyslexicAtheist wrote:
               | _> I think this framing gives undue weight to the fact_
               | 
               | yes totally (in this argument) ignoring anyone that might
               | have been historically or currently been agnostic,
               | atheist, or anti-theist.
               | 
               |  _> this is basically an appeal to authority argument
               | no?_
               | 
               | I think so. And I couldn't think of a better example then
               | what you just gave with mentioning "appeal to authority".
               | The fact that we deconstruct language the way we do in
               | order to decide the validity of the argument is already a
               | scientific process.
               | 
               | Sibling comment just mentioned trust which I also agree
               | would be an important element of religious belief
               | systems. In scientific process this trust is only
               | temporary until we either managed to learn enough about
               | this subject to see the truth for ourselves, or gave up
               | on it and trust that those specialists who know (your
               | appeal to authority argument) are qualified to know it
               | for us.
        
             | malfist wrote:
             | This is often described as "God of the gaps" if you're
             | curious about the argument you're making:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/God_of_the_gaps
             | 
             | "Science" isn't a god. You don't believe in science, you
             | don't have faith in science. You might have faith, or
             | believe in people or textbooks that describe the current
             | state of "science" but they're not divine.
             | 
             | Science doesn't "leave no room for any gods", if there was
             | evidence of a god (or gods), then that would be science
             | too. There just isn't any evidence to support such a thing.
        
             | xboxnolifes wrote:
             | > I don't just dismiss their gods as false, but also
             | dismiss the whole underlying structure all religions are
             | built on, but without being aware (or if so I'm dismissing
             | it) that my belief is just another religion.
             | 
             | Assuming the "my belief" here is still talking about
             | science, I think it would be wrong to say that it dismisses
             | gods as false. Instead, it dismisses most arguments of the
             | existence of a god as unfalsifiable, and thus cannot be
             | reasoned one way or the other. There is no proof one way or
             | the other for something unfalsifiable, and instead time can
             | be spent on what is.
             | 
             | There are certainly religious scientists who maintain their
             | faith and scientific contribution without compromising one
             | or the other.
        
             | adventured wrote:
             | > what if non-religious people are actually the most
             | religious of them all. humor me.
             | 
             | I can't. It's self-contradictory. Religion is wholly based
             | in faith: believing when you have no concrete,
             | demonstrable, scientific reason to. No religion can exist
             | without that core concept, you have to be willing to
             | believe when you have no proof. More broadly all mysticism
             | is based on faith, and all mysticism (ghost hunters! magic
             | rocks! miracles!) similarly runs counter to science
             | accordingly.
             | 
             | So non-religious scientifically-oriented people have more
             | faith (willingness to base their lives and beliefs around
             | things they can't prove exist) than religious people do?
             | No.
             | 
             | In terms of religion, asking for proof, requiring evidence,
             | is the true first sin: thou shalt not! Religion builds upon
             | that first step, you must first suspend your rational
             | mental self and then turn your brain over to someone else's
             | opinions as fact (which you then must accept as true, even
             | if there's no way to prove such; religion is always based
             | on subservience to someone else's faith-based opinions;
             | religion begins at the point where you turn off your brain
             | and hand it to someone else who says: because I say so, and
             | you must believe what they're saying and specifically not
             | let reason interfere). Here's how religion begins for
             | everyone: someone tells you a (typically fantastical)
             | story, with absolutely no evidence to support it, and then
             | you believe it; to believe it you have to shut down
             | inspection, debate, skepticism, reasoning, and so on. One
             | of the core tenets of all religion is: don't ask such
             | questions; who are you to question; etc. Even the more
             | docile religions fold at those corners eventually and
             | require that you stop asking questions or challenging (aka
             | shut your brain off and just believe on faith).
             | 
             | Science is contrary to faith. People occasionally try to
             | worm around that in touchy-feely ways, you'll run across
             | historical quotes by famous scientists saying dumb things
             | like: my science is rooted in a powerful faith, dur dur
             | dur. But that's just someone smart (at a thing) saying
             | something exceptionally stupid about a different realm of
             | thought and should be regarded as such. Like putting much
             | stock into the dumb things Stephen Hawking used to say in
             | the political or economic realm; geniuses are quite
             | typically gifted at one thing, very rarely at two things,
             | and people commonly seem to make the mistake of thinking
             | that translates widely, when the opposite is true and it
             | very rarely translates widely.
             | 
             | Science grows stronger through questioning, debate,
             | inquiry, challenging notions, requiring evidence to
             | believe. Religion - and all faith based systems - wither
             | when confronted by such, without exception. They react in
             | such opposite manners, because they are indeed opposites.
        
               | hunterb123 wrote:
               | Most people who are religious nowadays know that the
               | stories aren't real or are embellished. It's a story to
               | teach a lesson. The faith allows comfort for people who
               | need it, the community does as well. If you don't need
               | that comfort, fine, don't make fun of people who do. They
               | aren't stupid, they're filling a hole in their heart with
               | community and a shared belief / interest. My wife fills
               | mine, some people don't have that or lost it.
               | 
               | Pro-tip, instead of asking for "proof" like an
               | interrogation, ask for clarification to understand the
               | story or viewpoint. Getting in a fight over something
               | neither side can prove is ridiculous.
               | 
               | But if you want to debate what we cannot know, riddle me
               | this, how do you know we're not in a simulation made by a
               | higher being? Math and science is the reverse engineering
               | of our created universe. It's more probable we were
               | created in some way than a random occurrence.
        
               | mistermann wrote:
               | As an armchair Taoist, I have a feeling that my
               | impression of your style of thinking is quite similar to
               | your impression of a fundamentalist Christian (or,
               | basically what you've written here about "religion").
               | 
               | Seriously: if you reread your text, do you see no errors
               | (or at least potential errors)?
        
             | honkycat wrote:
             | > what if non-religious people are actually the most
             | religious of them all. humor me.
             | 
             | Atheism is not an assertion that there is no god. It is the
             | understanding that we cannot with our current level of
             | technology prove there IS a god. Therefore, we cannot
             | believe in a god.
             | 
             | That is the baseline argument: Prove it. You can't. That is
             | the end of the conversation.
             | 
             | In other words, the assertion you make here is one of the
             | very few things we CAN prove and DO know. We CANNOT prove
             | there IS a god. We CANNOT prove there is NO god. Therefore,
             | we abstain from believing in a religion until sufficient
             | evidence is provided.
             | 
             | That is why atheism is not a religion. There is no belief
             | involved. Because we do not pretend to know. We assert that
             | we do not, and currently can not, know.
        
               | hunterb123 wrote:
               | You're thinking of agnosticism. Atheism is the assertion
               | there is no God. A-theism.
               | 
               | But it's a highly debated topic itself (as most things
               | are in this realm).
               | 
               | In general though, people mean it as they don't believe
               | in God, and use agnosticism to indicate they do not
               | believe one way or another.
        
               | honkycat wrote:
               | People can interpret Athiesm in different ways, and I was
               | a bit clumsy by asserting anything about Athiesm in a
               | broad sense, since there is no category or group of
               | people who all have the same opinions and interpretations
               | of Athiesm.
               | 
               | However, by dictionary definition and from citing
               | Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atheism
               | 
               | "Atheism, in the broadest sense, is an absence of belief
               | in the existence of deities."
               | 
               | Anti-theism is the assertion there is no god. The prefix
               | "a" can mean "not" or "without." "anti" means "against",
               | "opposite of."
               | 
               | So no, it is not the assertion there are no deities. It
               | is an absence of the belief in any deities.
               | 
               | The perspective I am arguing from is that there is no
               | other coherent argument to be made about the existence of
               | deities. We cannot currently prove there is no god. We
               | cannot currently prove there is a god.
        
               | hunterb123 wrote:
               | As I said it's a debated topic, you have to use the
               | interpretation of what people mean, not the broadest one.
               | 
               | Wikipedia's first sentence is the broadest definition but
               | not the de-facto, the second sentence you left out shows
               | that.
               | 
               | If you don't want confusion you'd want to use atheism for
               | belief no God exist and agnosticism to indicate you don't
               | feel one way or another. Which I believe is what most
               | people do.
               | 
               | Otherwise you start a semantic debate which is as
               | pointless as a religious one. If you want to communicate
               | the nuance of your beliefs without much explanation, use
               | the two different words, otherwise use atheism as an
               | umbrella term, which is what the "broadest sense"
               | wikipedia is hinting at.
        
               | honkycat wrote:
               | I'm not a philosopher by any means but the interpretation
               | of Atheism I presented above is widely used. Specifically
               | by Matt Dillahunty and a lot of modern Atheist.
               | 
               | I wouldn't be against an interpretation of agnosticism
               | that is functionally identical to my interpretation of
               | atheism, but at a certain point one word to describe a
               | world-view is never going to be sufficient and
               | explanation of the nuance is going to be required.
               | 
               | You can say "Christianity" and you would be referencing
               | both the Westborough Baptist Church and Christian
               | Unitarian Universalists.
               | 
               | I already described in detail in my first comment my
               | interpretation of Atheism so I don't know where confusion
               | could possibly come in.
               | 
               | Therefore, I reject your premise that I "have to use the
               | interpretation of what people mean, not the broadest one"
               | because:
               | 
               | - that varies from person to person and I cannot read
               | people's minds.
               | 
               | - Your interpretation is not universal
               | 
               | - the interpretation I presented is actually quite widely
               | understood and common.
               | 
               | So while you are correct that I cannot assert "Atheism is
               | X", you are wrong that I am wrong.
               | 
               | Also you are the one having the pointless semantic debate
               | about something I already explained and clarified in my
               | first comment. Call me agnostic I don't care, even though
               | an interpretation of agnosticism is that god CANNOT be
               | proven, which is NOT what I said.
        
               | hunterb123 wrote:
               | You started the semantic debate with GP.
               | 
               | > So while you are correct that I cannot assert "Atheism
               | is X"
               | 
               | Yes, that is my point. You said "Atheism is (not an
               | assertion that there is no god = X)"
               | 
               | > you are wrong that I am wrong.
               | 
               | You are wrong that GP is wrong. Everyone is also right.
        
               | [deleted]
        
       | yosito wrote:
       | Does anyone know if this is just fun folklore or if there are
       | people who actually take it seriously?
        
         | lithos wrote:
         | Do you still tell your kids about Santa? (Or whatever your
         | equivalent is)
        
           | k_ wrote:
           | Eh, good one :) (btw we don't, and I think the whole
           | preschool parents will soon hate us but hey they're the ones
           | lying!)
        
           | yosito wrote:
           | My question, as I know very little of Japanese folklore, was
           | whether this is more like the Easter bunny (just a game) or
           | the second coming of Christ (something people actually build
           | their lives around).
        
           | dymk wrote:
           | It's not clear to a western audience if this is closer to
           | Noah's Ark or closer to Santa in terms of "how literally do
           | people interpret this event".
        
         | jabroni_salad wrote:
         | a little of column A, a little of column B. A lot of the
         | stories are just stories, but the traditions borne of them are
         | still culturally important.
        
         | Mikeb85 wrote:
         | I mean, most cultures will pretend to take this shit seriously
         | then just ignore it and forget it ever happened.
        
         | Psyladine wrote:
         | As much as any culture takes its system of beliefs and
         | underlayment of culture seriously.
        
       | signa11 wrote:
       | imho, the demon is a day late and a dollar short...
        
       | docdeek wrote:
       | > While others speculated that the demon spirit of Tamamo-no-Mae
       | had been resurrected after almost 1,000 years, local media said
       | cracks had appeared in the rock several years ago, possibly
       | allowing rainwater to seep inside and weaken its structure.
       | 
       | Hard to tell which one is more likely considering recent global
       | events.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | peteradio wrote:
         | > Local media suggest groundhogs have no bearing on future
         | weather patterns.
        
           | Yoric wrote:
           | That's what _they_ want you to believe.
        
         | magusdei wrote:
         | According to myth, Tamamo-no-Mae would attach herself to
         | emperors and drive them mad, causing them to commit massacres.
         | Hmm...
        
           | PaulHoule wrote:
           | I am never going to get this out of my head
           | 
           | https://typemoon.fandom.com/wiki/Tamamo-no-Mae
        
           | foobarian wrote:
           | Wonder if the stone had a bunch of naturally occurring
           | tetraethyllead or dimethylmercury or similar that unknowingly
           | affected people nearby.
        
           | jasonhansel wrote:
           | https://news.usni.org/2022/02/16/japanese-mod-voices-
           | concern...
        
           | illwrks wrote:
           | I thought you were joking..
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamamo-no-Mae
        
             | BurningPenguin wrote:
             | Out of all coincidences, this one is now my favorite.
        
               | akincisor wrote:
               | I'm now wondering if there is a time in history when this
               | would _not_ be seen as a coincidence?
               | 
               | Like a time when there was no crazy ruler.
        
               | rocqua wrote:
               | What would have been the thought half a year ago?
        
               | taejavu wrote:
               | Xi Jinping
        
               | codpiece wrote:
               | The same as now: D) All of the above
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | emerged wrote:
           | At this point it makes as much sense as most other world
           | news.
        
           | jayzalowitz wrote:
           | If only someone was an effective emperor of a near japan
           | power with a long history of war... but where...
        
           | ramraj07 wrote:
           | A bit of survivorship bias. There are superstitious things
           | like this all over the world , just one of them happened to
           | break now so everyone's like we're doomed.
           | 
           | I mean I agree we're doomed but what the H does this rock
           | have to do with it!
        
           | Root_Denied wrote:
           | This along with the groundhog dying the day before Groundhog
           | Day makes it seem like there's some dice game being played by
           | the gods for the human race.
           | 
           | A friend of mine said at the end of 2020 that his prediction
           | was that "2020 will be the best year of the decade" and it's
           | scary watching that cynicism come true.
        
             | rat87 wrote:
             | > makes it seem like there's some dice game being played by
             | the gods for the human race.
             | 
             | Have you ever read Small Gods by Terry Pratchett? Great
             | book. Your comment reminded me of it because it includes
             | the gods of that world dicing over a war of their followers
        
               | seanhandley wrote:
               | Great book.
               | 
               | "Time is a drug. Too much of it kills you."
        
               | miriam_catira wrote:
               | He plays with that same "gods playing dice" concept in
               | The Last Hero too. Highly recommended.
               | https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/34503.The_Last_Hero
        
             | subsubzero wrote:
             | There was talk of a recently written book that said
             | everything is on a 75-100 year cycle of peace and chaos,
             | and chaos was going to be happening again and soon. This
             | was in 2018-2019 and every year since 2020 has been worse
             | than the previous.
             | 
             | edit - book is the fouth turning, pretty accurate given it
             | was written in 1997:
             | 
             | https://www.businessinsider.com/protests-coronavirus-
             | crisis-...
        
               | pintxo wrote:
               | 75-100 years is roughly 3 generations. Which is, I guess
               | about the average number of generations we have in our
               | smallest social unit: the family. I guess we learn a lot
               | from our parents and grandparents, but hardly anything
               | from our great-grandparents, as they are usually not
               | longer around. Which means 75-100 years is the learning
               | horizon within our families, and therefore for a big part
               | of our journey to become social beings.
               | 
               | I am a bit worried that we are loosing quickly the last
               | people remembering the atrocities of ww1+2.
        
               | coffeeblack wrote:
               | Maybe the Internet and its function as memory of
               | humankind may break that cycle in the future?
        
               | ben_w wrote:
               | I remember reading somewhere that there's a specific name
               | for that period of time, but I can't find it even on
               | Wikipedia's lists of humorous units.
        
               | barry-cotter wrote:
               | Saeculum
               | 
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saeculum
               | 
               | > A saeculum is a length of time roughly equal to the
               | potential lifetime of a person or, equivalently, the
               | complete renewal of a human population.[1] Originally it
               | meant the time from the moment that something happened
               | (for example the founding of a city) until the point in
               | time that all people who had lived at the first moment
               | had died. At that point a new saeculum would start.
               | According to legend, the gods had allotted a certain
               | number of saecula to every people or civilization; the
               | Etruscans, for example, had been given ten saecula.[2
        
               | trhway wrote:
               | 80 years Sun/climate cycle. We're almost on the peak of
               | it.
        
               | ssully wrote:
               | Only speaking for myself here, but I thought 2021 was
               | much better than 2020. With that said, it is better in
               | the sense of "This shit sandwich tasted a little better
               | than this shit sandwich".
        
         | je_bailey wrote:
         | The older I get, and the more experience I have with the world.
         | I know that rain water caused the split but I am also popping
         | popcorn in my shelter as I wait for Tamamo-no-Mae's first move.
        
         | Bjorkbat wrote:
         | Since the pandemic started I've found myself believing less-
         | and-less in mundane, worldly explanations for things.
         | 
         | My favorite example is the 2016 presidential election. While
         | there are many who would like to believe that Trump won due to
         | Russian interference, I actually believe he won due to meme
         | magic. A bunch of social misfits got together, sharing frog
         | memes, while listening to Shadilay
         | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadilay), and memed their
         | candidate into office.
         | 
         | I just think that objective, material reality is less objective
         | and less material than I thought all along.
        
           | circlefavshape wrote:
           | > I just think that objective, material reality is less
           | objective and less material than I thought all along
           | 
           | When people say "objective, material reality" they normally
           | mean ... well, things like the gravity and chemistry and
           | stubbing your toe being painful. What story you want to use
           | to describe the aggregate behaviour of 100 million human
           | voters has very little to do with that, surely
        
           | zackmorris wrote:
           | Ya I'm 44 and have had multiple personal experiences around
           | the metaphysical that science simply has no explanation for.
           | Now that I'm older, I realize that it's the models that are
           | wrong, not reality. So I'm open to substantially more
           | spiritual explanations than I used to be.
           | 
           | I'd even go as far as the say that stochastic and emergent
           | behavior is what forms our reality, not determinism. And that
           | consciousness itself is the emergent behavior of the chaos
           | working at the lowest levels of reality. At the end of the
           | day, emotion and love and magic and all of that woo woo stuff
           | is at least as real as atoms.
           | 
           | But we don't have good language today to talk about the
           | physics of our own personal realities. The things that are
           | true in my life may not be true in yours, and vice versa. We
           | just assume that the true reality is the one we all agree
           | with, but I have not found that to be the case.
           | 
           | So we talk past one another about, I don't know, critical
           | race theory or whatever the flavor of the week is. When it's
           | really about, how is my reality impacted as I learn the
           | truths of your reality and our shared reality? If I'm wrong
           | because I don't know something, does that mean that my
           | reality is wrong? What happens if I make decisions over years
           | of my life based on incorrect information? What does correct
           | mean if it diminishes my quality of life? Can I be correct
           | without hurting anyone else?
           | 
           | Some of these questions in the end aren't answerable. In my
           | own reality, I struggle with having to eat meat because
           | that's what my body was designed to do. I carved a rotisserie
           | chicken last night, divided the breast into portions and
           | consumed it. There was almost no separation between the
           | chicken's life and my own. How do we solve something like war
           | when an awful lot of people haven't even stopped to think
           | about the violence their own survival requires?
        
             | ianmcgowan wrote:
             | "Everything we call real is made of things that cannot be
             | regarded as real." - Niels Bohr.
             | 
             | If we're at the point in physics where string theory is the
             | answer to "what are atoms?", it doesn't seem that woo-woo
             | to ascribe some kind of reality to consciousness and the
             | other abstracts that come with it. Unfortunately, as with
             | string theory, there doesn't appear to be any empirical
             | proof.
        
             | can16358p wrote:
             | About the first paragraph...
             | 
             | I know this might go a bit off topic. I used to be a
             | hardcore-non-spiritual until the recent few years of
             | scratching the surface of the possibility of there might
             | more more to reality than we see.
             | 
             | I'd love to hear any of your experiences that led you to
             | turn to metaphysics, if it's appropriate to share of
             | course.
             | 
             | I also sometimes experience phenomenon which can't be
             | eliminated away with physics, or weird coincidences that
             | can't be explained with confirmation bias or selective
             | attention, and trying to pinpoint a pattern, so anything
             | that you'd think worth sharing in that direction would
             | help.
        
               | krypton2k wrote:
               | Could you please detail some of these phenomenon?
        
           | golergka wrote:
           | Ukranian president played Ukranian president on TV before
           | actually becoming him. He also used to dance topless in latex
           | pants, and now he's symbol of a true modern wartime leader.
           | 
           | We live in South Park episode now.
        
           | drakythe wrote:
           | Why not both?
           | 
           | Russia employed a bunch of trolls, who helped create and
           | amplify the memes.
           | 
           | I think reality is a lot more complicated and humans just
           | look for the simplest possible explanation, like "Russia did
           | it!" Or "Meme's did it!" Or "Racists did it!" When it was all
           | of them and many other reasons. See Dan Olson's "In Search of
           | a Flat Earth" video for a genuinely brilliant breakdown of
           | this idea and how it relates to Flat Earthere and other
           | nonsense.
        
             | Yoric wrote:
             | > Russia employed a bunch of trolls, who helped create and
             | amplify the memes.
             | 
             | As long as we all agree that it's a bunch of literal
             | trolls. The kind who live below bridges.
        
             | Bjorkbat wrote:
             | And so there's still definitely a part of me that realizes
             | that, yeah, rationally, you can't just ignore the influence
             | of Russian interference or the flaws in modern polling.
             | Looking back, it's obvious that we underestimated how
             | politically motivated working-class white voters could be.
             | 
             | The thing about meme magic though is that there's so many
             | spooky "synchronicities" woven throughout that I can't help
             | but take it seriously.
        
               | BizarroLand wrote:
               | A relatively new to me concept I've been running into is
               | that of "memetic virus", intentionally constructed by
               | human hands, that, if implanted at opportune times in the
               | right minds would cause a conflagration of an irrational
               | thought to spread around the world.
               | 
               | Richard Dawkins mentioned something alike this in his
               | "viruses of the mind" essay
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viruses_of_the_Mind but his
               | discourse was limited to denigrating the religious and
               | seemed to miss out on the bigger picture, that being,
               | that if it were possible to ingrain a meme onto people's
               | minds that one day, someone would use it as an instrument
               | of mental war.
               | 
               | I've read many anecdotes of people going off the deep end
               | with political stuff over the last 6 years or so, people
               | who refuse have a reasonable conversation about or seem
               | to be unable to explain their convictions that _bad
               | thing_ was actually _good thing_ even when shown evidence
               | to the contrary.
               | 
               | How did we go from relatively peaceful in the 90's to a
               | maelstrom of insanity in less than 30 years?
               | 
               | If it were one person or a certain group of people, it
               | might make sense, but this memetic virus seems to have
               | spread worldwide, infecting almost everyone, and since
               | our frame of reference is also infected we can't see that
               | we're infected with it.
               | 
               | Is there a cure? I wouldn't know. Is there a defense
               | against it? I don't know? Does it actually exist or is it
               | a convenient cover story that I can blame all the woes of
               | the world on? Once again, I don't know.
               | 
               | I really don't know if this is true, but I suspect that
               | if you brought a group of average people from 2000, 1990,
               | 1980, & 1970, I feel like they would all agree that the
               | world has gone mad and that there must be some reason for
               | it.
        
               | dfxm12 wrote:
               | _How did we go from relatively peaceful in the 90 's to a
               | maelstrom of insanity in less than 30 years?_
               | 
               | It depends on your values for most of the words in this
               | statement. For example, sure things ebb and flow, but I
               | don't think we can say things were relatively peaceful in
               | the 90s. So, for most values, the answer is likely that
               | things haven't changed as much as you think; you're just
               | more aware of everything now. You can life by the adage,
               | "ignorance is bliss", or live a less blissful life aware
               | of everything going on, or even try to take advantage of
               | those who are living blissfully.
        
               | BizarroLand wrote:
               | I feel that this kind of response isn't very helpful.
               | "Oh, it's always been bad, you just didn't know any
               | better" is the same thing that has always been said in
               | response to emergent issues.
               | 
               | America was not politically unstable in the 90's. It may
               | have been rocky, but not unstable. Saying it was just as
               | bad then as it is now is false.
               | 
               | Only a fringe element would have cheered John Hinckley
               | Jr's attempt to assassinate Reagan in 1981, but today an
               | attempt whether successful or not on either the
               | Democratic or Republican front runners would get a
               | resounding cheer from a not-insignificant section of the
               | population.
               | 
               | I would hazard to say that, under the right
               | circumstances, a single bullet could spark an internal
               | American Conflict between the groups of people who can
               | best be identified not by what they stand _for_ but by
               | what they stand _against_.
               | 
               | Trying to say that the tensions the country are facing
               | today are equal to the tensions of the past glosses over
               | the amplification of the screaming masses thanks to
               | technology, the financial whirlwind created by the
               | internet, where unimaginable fortunes can be raised and
               | erased faster than you can blink, the lancing of the pus-
               | filled boil of human misery that education and awareness
               | brings, the struggle of the lowest-paid and lowest
               | earning members of society to simply survive when the
               | financial ladder of arbitrage no longer reaches their
               | grasp.
               | 
               | Many of these things existed in some proto form in the
               | 90's, yes, but they have grown since then and, like an
               | abused child who becomes a sulking and angry teenager,
               | may reach the point where they start to swing back. You
               | can't treat the teenager like you treated the child,
               | you're far more likely to get a black eye.
        
               | mistermann wrote:
               | > How did we go from relatively peaceful in the 90's to a
               | maelstrom of insanity in less than 30 years?
               | 
               | I would speculate some combination of these (plus some
               | things I'm missing):
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect
               | 
               | https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/causation-
               | counterfactual/
               | 
               | https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/heuristics
               | 
               | https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/2022/02/is-
               | reality...
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet
               | 
               | > I've read many anecdotes of people going off the deep
               | end with political stuff over the last 6 years or so,
               | people who refuse have a reasonable conversation about or
               | seem to be unable to explain their convictions that bad
               | thing was actually good thing even when shown evidence to
               | the contrary.
               | 
               | And I've interacted with hundreds and observed
               | tens/hundreds of thousands of "right thinking" people who
               | suffer from the same inability to substantiate their
               | "correct" beliefs, or the ability to address legitimate
               | criticisms of their claims/logic without resorting to
               | rhetorical wildcards like "that's pedantic".
               | 
               | > Is there a cure? I wouldn't know. Is there a defense
               | against it? I don't know? Does it actually exist or is it
               | a convenient cover story that I can blame all the woes of
               | the world on? Once again, I don't know.
               | 
               | My intuition is that you just demonstrated a substantial
               | portion of the cure: the ability to implement Unknown() -
               | it is an amazingly rare ability these days. If you don't
               | believe me, read internet discussions for one week
               | deliberately looking for instances of people noting
               | uncertainty in their beliefs, and the opposite: instances
               | of people claiming to have knowledge of things that are
               | unknowable (such as the contents of other people's minds,
               | the future state of reality, etc), knowing the "correct"
               | answer to subjective questions, and various other highly
               | irrational behaviors that are typically excused as "you
               | know what I meant" or "that's just people being people".
        
               | vkou wrote:
               | > Is there a cure? I wouldn't know. Is there a defense
               | against it? I don't know? Does it actually exist or is it
               | a convenient cover story that I can blame all the woes of
               | the world on? Once again, I don't know.
               | 
               | I don't know about a cure, but a likely defense is the
               | same damn thing as slows the spread of an actual virus -
               | slow down the spread of information. Social media that
               | promotes viral content is to a memetic virus what
               | globalization, international travel, and high-density
               | cities are to an actual virus.
        
               | BizarroLand wrote:
               | So, social distance & vaccinate by exposing yourself to
               | balanced information and knowledge so that you have a
               | defense against crazy fringe thoughts?
               | 
               | If it works in meatspace then it should be somewhat
               | effective in the mental realm, right?
        
             | mcguire wrote:
             | The Russian "Firehose of Falsehood" Propaganda Model
             | 
             | https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html
             | 
             | I especially like the title of the section, "Russian
             | Propaganda Is Not Committed to Consistency".
        
           | TheJoeMan wrote:
           | One thing to maybe help, whenever you read "Russian
           | interference" just replace it with "Russian Facebook Ads" and
           | see how ridiculous it sounds. The argument is that US
           | citizens were swayed by shitty Facebook ads to vote
           | differently? This does not reconcile with the historically
           | small fraction of US swing voters, and also leads to a flawed
           | mindset of "I'm smarter than those dumb people over there".
           | 
           | The winner in 2016 pitched themselves as an "outsider" for
           | the masses, and sure was propelled by memes which are non-
           | traditional. Even if you disagree with the winner, sometimes
           | excuses like blaming Russia are just lies told to feel
           | better.
        
             | sgustard wrote:
             | Not just swing voters. A lot of the effort is increasing
             | voter turnout for your favored side.
        
             | lern_too_spel wrote:
             | It wasn't Facebook ads. It was an army of trolls creating,
             | sharing, and upvoting "fake news" articles tricking
             | gullible people into thinking that Hillary molested
             | children underneath a pizza parlor and tricking other
             | suggestible people into thinking people said the problem
             | was Facebook ads. I was on Reddit at the time, and 90% of
             | commenters believed that the Correct the Record PAC was
             | illegally astroturfing Reddit, despite lacking any
             | evidence, or were trolls pretending that they believed the
             | PAC was astroturfing.
        
           | zdragnar wrote:
           | Surely it didn't have anything to do with the media pimping
           | him nonstop during the primaries, giving him disproportionate
           | airtime, or that the democrats ran one of their least likable
           | candidates of all time.
           | 
           | Not to mention running a terrible campaign that spent all of
           | its time hanging out with megadonors instead of actually
           | visiting the swing states that decide elections...
        
             | adventured wrote:
             | Russian interference had little to do with his victory in
             | 2016, which was an establishment vs outsider election (and
             | Hillary was quite unpopular and unlikable), where a very
             | famous populist outsider won by telling his rabid audience
             | whatever he thought they wanted to hear (little of which he
             | actually followed through on). One of Trump's few talents
             | is reading an audience and feeding it whatever it wants to
             | hear; it makes him dangerous as a potential demagogue
             | authoritarian type.
             | 
             | Trump nearly beat Biden in 2020, and he would have beaten
             | any other Democrat candidate that year, which
             | overwhelmingly points to it not being Russian interference
             | as a major influence. Everyone knew what Trump was by the
             | 2020 election and he still attracted more votes than Barack
             | Obama got in either election (and Obama was a widely
             | popular President).
        
               | zdragnar wrote:
               | He did actually keep quite a few of his campaign
               | promises. Where he really got stymied was lack of
               | cooperation from the house under Ryan (early days of the
               | dossier hoax).
               | 
               | I made a habit of trying to count broken campaign
               | promises starting in the Clinton years, and it is pretty
               | much universal that presidents over-promise during the
               | campaign and do the opposite once they get into office. I
               | haven't really kept accurate numbers, but it certainly
               | wasn't unique to trump by any means.
        
               | wolverine876 wrote:
               | Could you provide any data? I don't know anyone whose
               | claims I trust less than Trump.
               | 
               | Saying everyone breaks some campaign promises is like
               | saying that everyone lies - there is an enormous range.
        
               | toast0 wrote:
               | I don't have the data, but let's just say that campaign
               | promises are not credible, regardless of the politician.
               | A whole lot of the promises made are outside the baliwick
               | of the position, and should be rediculed when made, not
               | when broken (mayoral candidates often promise to fix
               | schools in jurisdictions where the schools are
               | accountable to school boards and not city governments,
               | for example. Presidential candidates promise things that
               | would need to be enacted by the legislature. At the same
               | time, a presidential candidate that promises to suggest
               | legislation sounds unambitious).
               | 
               | But what makes me less likely to trust Trump's claims and
               | promises is his consistent denial of claims he made
               | previously that he no longer wishes to make. It's hard to
               | trust someone when they change positions and deny that
               | they had a different positon. Gives very We were always
               | at war with Eastasia vibes.
        
               | beepbooptheory wrote:
               | Respectfully, Bernie would have won.
        
               | jessaustin wrote:
               | In 2016, definitely. In 2020, after several troubling
               | compromises, I'm not so sure?
        
             | Bjorkbat wrote:
             | I have to admit I didn't vote at all during that election,
             | half because of how unlikable both candidates were.
             | 
             | But the other half of the reason was that I kind of figured
             | Hilary had it in the bag. She was simply better resourced
             | in terms of money and in terms of the groups and
             | individuals who were supporting her. How could she not win?
             | Especially against Trump? Sure, she made some mistakes
             | along the way, but Trump also mocked a disabled reporter
             | during one of his campaign appearances. One could argue
             | that he made just as many mistakes, if not more.
             | 
             | I don't really think Trump had any unfair advantages one
             | could consider substantial (if anything he had a lot of
             | disadvantages) nor do I believe that Hilary made any
             | mistakes that were really damaging to her campaign. Its
             | nuts, but the most convincing explanation I can think of is
             | the weirdest and most esoteric one.
             | 
             | Just can't ignore those spooky synchronicities.
        
               | nwienert wrote:
               | It's near impossible to believe around these parts, but I
               | think people liked his incorrectness, and also liked his
               | general policies.
               | 
               | That he was a showman helped the memes. But I encourage
               | you to consider mundane things like maybe people were
               | tired of status quo globalism and willing to take a
               | bitter pill to try and fix it.
        
               | rajup wrote:
               | Yes it really is as simple as what you just said. I find
               | it funny and sad when opponents of Trump do all these
               | weird mental contortions to explain why he won, from
               | "trump voters are brainwashed rednecks" to Russiagate.
               | Turns out some people do want lesser taxes, lesser
               | regulation, don't care for abortion and simply don't mind
               | trumps buffoonery. And no, not all of trump voters are
               | racist. I might even say a negligible fraction are
               | actually racist.
        
               | justinpowers wrote:
               | Trump surely didn't think it was a negligible fraction.
        
               | the_sleaze_ wrote:
               | > not all of trump voters are racist.
               | 
               | I am reminded of a comedian's favorite response to this
               | statement.
               | 
               | > Not all trump supporters are racist, but ALL racists
               | are trump supporters.
        
               | zdragnar wrote:
               | It's blatantly false, but hey, gets a laugh from the in-
               | crowd right?
        
               | rajup wrote:
               | Very cute but that's why he's a comedian I suppose.
        
               | autoexec wrote:
               | > It's near impossible to believe around these parts, but
               | I think people liked his incorrectness, and also liked
               | his general policies.
               | 
               | I think a lot of people were just done with the current
               | political system which had been failing them for
               | generations and wanted an outsider to come in and shake
               | (if not break) up the system. Sanders gained a huge
               | following attracting massive crowds and passionate
               | supporters for the same reason. People wanted actual
               | change but the DNC wasn't having it so they did
               | everything they could to undermine sanders before the
               | primary. Republicans threw everyone they could think of
               | into the race.
               | 
               | Trump wasn't a politician, didn't act like one, and no
               | one in power wanted him to be elected. His election meant
               | that I lost a lot of faith in Americans, but I gained a
               | lot of faith in our electoral system. People can vote in
               | someone even when the most powerful don't want them to.
        
           | emmp wrote:
           | Surely the idea that a young motivated constituency used the
           | most modern communication methods available to them to
           | campaign for their preferred candidate, successfully moving
           | the needle somewhat, is pretty mundane?
        
           | pmoriarty wrote:
           | _" While there are many who would like to believe that Trump
           | won due to Russian interference, I actually believe he won
           | due to meme magic."_
           | 
           | There's at least one book on this theory, such as Gary
           | Lachman's _" Dark Star Rising"_:
           | 
           | https://www.amazon.com/Dark-Star-Rising-Magick-
           | Power/dp/0143...
        
             | Bjorkbat wrote:
             | This actually looks really interesting. I was worried that
             | the positive reviews might be due to a right-leaning echo-
             | chamber, but it seems like the praise crosses political
             | lines. I'll have to check it out.
        
           | Bjorkbat wrote:
           | Also, so this isn't just about politics, I think astrology
           | is...interesting.
           | 
           | I mean, rationally, it's hard to take it seriously. So, what,
           | you mean to tell me that the planets, which are an
           | unfathomable distance away from us, somehow impact human
           | personality and how we behave? Doesn't exactly help things
           | that the stars over our head are not the same stars as the
           | one's over the heads of the ancient Babylonians.
           | 
           | And yet, once I took the time to actually look at my full
           | star chart, I found that it described who I am to uncanny
           | levels of accuracy.
           | 
           | Rationally, probably just a coincidence that my personality
           | actually happens to align to what my personality "should" be,
           | astrologically speaking. My alternative theory is that when
           | enough people believe in something, that something becomes,
           | well, "real-ish". So even if astrology is a bunch of made-up
           | nonsense, it becomes real-enough simply because a lot of
           | people believe in astrology.
        
             | rocqua wrote:
             | Did you check all possible outcomes of the chart? It might
             | be that most of them are quite apt.
        
           | JohnBooty wrote:
           | Essentially every national election in a two-party system
           | will be close. Candidates are incentivized to move toward the
           | middle, to try and claim the undecided voters.
           | 
           | Because the elections will always be close, they are
           | extremely sensitive to relatively small effects. Something
           | that moves the needle by 1% or 0.5% one way or the other can
           | decide the election.
           | 
           | I think the 4ch-spawned memewar was one of those factors,
           | though I also think foreign interference played a role as
           | well.
           | 
           | IMO, those undecided voters in the middle are probably the
           | least, uh, savvy as well. The type most easily swayed by
           | memes, clickbait, etc.
        
             | vkou wrote:
             | But many elections _aren 't_ determined by undecided middle
             | voters. They are a small minority of the voting population,
             | and most effort spent convincing them is wasted.
             | 
             | Elections are often determined by how successful the get-
             | out-the-vote campaigns are, to get the base to show up and
             | vote. It's both much easier, and much more profitable to
             | bring a lazy member of your base to the polls, than to
             | badger someone who doesn't care much either into voting for
             | you.
        
               | cobbzilla wrote:
               | Bases are getting much smaller; there are fewer
               | registered D/R vs independents.
               | 
               | This makes the "swingable middle" rather large, and
               | they're not all rubes.
               | 
               | Campaigns seem to be iterating on scalable/personalizable
               | social strategy. Obama figured it out better than Romney,
               | Trump (maybe disturbingly) better than anyone before.
               | 
               | Prediction: some future candidate will go "next level"
               | and piss everyone off even more, but it'll work and
               | they'll be elected.
        
               | chipotle_coyote wrote:
               | > Bases are getting much smaller; there are fewer
               | registered D/R vs independents.
               | 
               | While this is true, the evidence seems to be that most
               | independents actually have a party preference in their
               | voting patterns -- they're what political scientists
               | sometimes call "leaners", e.g., they register (and
               | identify) as independent, but they have a clear lean
               | toward Democrats or Republicans. From the authors of the
               | 2016 book _Independent Politics: How American Disdain for
               | Parties Leads to Political Inaction_ : "The problem with
               | leaners is that there is almost no difference between
               | people who identify as partisans and people who say they
               | are independent and then say they lean toward a
               | particular party. More often than not, we can count on
               | leaners to vote for that party, support the party's
               | positions, and sometimes even donate money to the party's
               | candidates. What's more, leaners consistently support
               | their party from election to election."
               | 
               | https://www.vox.com/2016/1/22/10814522/independents-
               | voters-f...
               | 
               | I think the truly swingable middle -- folks who, for
               | example, voted for Obama in 2012, Trump in 2016, and
               | Biden in 2020 -- is actually a pretty small group. And,
               | it's a small group that's got both disproportionate power
               | at the ballot box and a fairly low engagement with actual
               | political issues. I think I (somewhat reluctantly) agree
               | with your observation about campaigns iterating on social
               | strategy, though, because that tends to be the best way
               | to reach those swing voters: they aren't motivated by
               | ideology or policy preference, but by star power and
               | charisma.
        
           | aliswe wrote:
           | Did you see that recent meme where a right wing "influencer"
           | with tens of thousands of followers only got 13 likes on a
           | recent tweet? would be interesting if true!
           | 
           | EDIT: https://imgur.com/gallery/cZwNWup
        
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