[HN Gopher] An insane baseball proposal: Dual league restructuring
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       An insane baseball proposal: Dual league restructuring
        
       Author : SubiculumCode
       Score  : 86 points
       Date   : 2022-03-01 18:17 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.xstats.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.xstats.org)
        
       | criddell wrote:
       | I'd be happy if they would just get rid of blackouts. I subscribe
       | to the MLB service and the blackout rules are so annoying.
        
       | snarf21 wrote:
       | This is interesting but I think this fails to add the excitement
       | that the other leagues have and baseball doesn't. It is true that
       | the one problem is that there is this assumption that there have
       | to be 162 games that all mean the same. We can throw out a lot of
       | the records after two divergent years of playing
       | 
       | I'd rather see something where the regular season is shortened to
       | like 140 games and have it end around Labor Day. Then have a full
       | 8 teams per league make the playoffs with _FULL_ 7 game series
       | with the World Series still finishing at the end of Oct  /
       | beginning of Nov.
       | 
       | Then if you wanted to have something like this relegation setup
       | for the teams that don't make it in, go ahead. They can all play
       | each other and their minor leaguers still get to have all the
       | "call up" time that the playoff teams don't get.
       | 
       | I also think we need to get rid of the nonsense of pitchers
       | hitting, fans want more scoring, not less. Additionally, we can
       | address some of the length with a simple rule that any pitcher
       | that enters the game must face 3 hitters. If the pitchers are
       | injured, they can bypass this rule but must go on the DL.
        
         | asdff wrote:
         | As a fan I'd rather get more regular season games that I can
         | actually afford tickets to vs playoff games
        
         | throwawaytemp27 wrote:
         | They already have the pitchers facing 3 hitters (or ending an
         | inning) rule
        
           | eigen wrote:
           | yes, rule 5.10g
           | 
           | For National Association play only, the starting pitcher or
           | any substitute pitcher is required to pitch to a minimum of
           | three consecutive batters, including the batter then at bat
           | (or any sub- stitute batter), until such batters are put out
           | or reach first base, or until the offensive team is put out,
           | unless the starting pitcher or substitute pitcher sustains
           | injury or illness which, in the umpire-in-chief's judgment,
           | incapacitates him from further play as a pitcher.
           | 
           | https://content.mlb.com/documents/2/2/4/305750224/2019_Offic.
           | ..
        
           | snarf21 wrote:
           | Get rid of the end of inning clause too.
        
       | baby-yoda wrote:
       | interesting proposal from the competitive aspect of the game and
       | as a fan this would likely be more exciting. However, a proposal
       | like this is quite incomplete without factoring in the draft,
       | salary cap and most importantly, IMO, the revenue share.
       | 
       | For a small market team, not spending on player salary to be
       | competitive is simply a profitable proposition due to revenue
       | share from the entire league. There is little incentive to spend
       | a ton of money and be profit negative in the hopes the team may
       | win and experience a transient increase in popularity. So much of
       | the money comes from TV contracts and a team becoming good might
       | get them a few more primetime games per year but their local TV
       | contracts which broadcast half of their games are based on
       | viewership which simply isn't that elastic - are people going to
       | move to an area if a team is good for 2 or 3 years? Are complete
       | non sports fans going to be compelled to learn a myriad of rules,
       | player names, league competition scenarios, etc. out of the blue?
       | Are there local demographic changes (population, age) which would
       | negate any positive momentum in the preceding issues?
       | 
       | i'm not naive enough to think there is a simple answer to any of
       | this; MLB has presumably known and been working on this for close
       | to 30 years. Is the game of baseball simply reaching the end of
       | its place in time?
        
       | steve76 wrote:
        
       | bdcravens wrote:
       | Seems to me to be extremely biased towards teams like the Yankees
       | who spend their way into success. I'm pretty sure you'd create a
       | situation like college football where you have the same small
       | handful of teams who are always in the championship, which is
       | pretty boring. (The focus on the Astros is interesting,
       | especially given it would have stacked the odds against them in
       | that infamous 2017 season)
        
         | isabelk wrote:
         | For what it's worth, the Yankees _could_ buy their way to
         | victory but they haven't in the past decade.
        
         | mabbo wrote:
         | If this much change is going on, you might as well introduce
         | salary caps too, which helps deal with teams like the Yankees
         | who can just buy their way to victory.
         | 
         | It's equally unlikely to ever happen.
        
       | AtlasBarfed wrote:
       | It all comes down to wasting stars on bad teams. That's the
       | underlying problem.
       | 
       | Maybe there should be some negative/positive weight on draft
       | picks based on how "moribund" a franchise is over time. Calculate
       | a running average of the pick quality and project a statistical
       | estimate of how good your team should be. If it sucks over a long
       | time (I'm talking a rolling 10 year average and as a somewhat fan
       | of the Detroit Lions... yeah) then the team shouldn't get the
       | cream of the crop, they should lose 5-10 positions in the first
       | round.
       | 
       | And that's the real rub: at some point bad franchises aren't bad
       | luck, bad players, bad coaches, or even bad GMs. They are
       | failures because of ownership which is far more entrenched.
       | 
       | Relegation in soccer is really the only mechanism for this.
       | 
       | I also think there should be an exclusive "national signing day"
       | for pro football where each team gets 1 player a year they can
       | sign regardless of their draft position in the first round
       | (assuming they can get a player wants to sign with them) and they
       | forgo their first round pick. That would counteract tanking in
       | the NFL because the really good players will avoid the crap
       | teams. Of course there is a pay scale in the first round so they
       | would take less money...
       | 
       | Baseball has strange levels of collusion among the owners, I
       | think from generations of labor strife, which the NFL has avoided
       | for some reason.
       | 
       | College athletics are kind of a multi-tier league like the
       | article. And I'm not talking D-I/II/III. There are the Power5,
       | and then even within the Power5, there are established
       | powerhouses. Preferential placement, games that change in
       | importance and estimation in the "rankings".
       | 
       | Of course college doesn't have the draft, which this entire
       | proposal revolves around: preventing tanking for the draft.
       | College has forced 4-6 year turnover that prevents decade-plus
       | star careers from overtilting the advantage and seems to be a
       | sufficient "chaos monkey"... although the 4 team CFP in football
       | seems to have concentrated power in only a couple schools.
       | 
       | Is this "good"? Eh. It does make name brands. It makes for lazy
       | reporters in an otherwise cacophonous landscape of a 100-odd
       | schools who only follow five or ten schools.
        
       | moate wrote:
       | Maybe I'm missing something here, but does this proposal
       | essentially say that half the teams will be playing something
       | like a 70 game season as they're only part of the "Standard"
       | league? How is the revenue sharing agreement going to work, you
       | only get a cut of the rev from the leagues your in?
       | 
       | The issue right now is that the Yankees and Dodgers each get one
       | vote, while the Marlins and Pirates also each get one vote on any
       | matter like this. Most of the teams are not located in NY, CA, or
       | Chicago where there's major fan bases and ownership that's
       | willing to spend to appease these fan bases. At best, I could see
       | about half a dozen owners benefitting from this, a dozen actively
       | harmed by it, and the rest in a grey area of "being motivated to
       | do better at baseball" by it.
       | 
       | I can see how this idea serves the fans and players, but how does
       | it help billionaires fleece local governments for stadium
       | subsidies/cozy up to local politicians to help grease the wheels
       | of their ACTUAL businesses? I'm very anti-owner class, but I'll
       | still admit you need to propose an idea they would actually like
       | for it to be considered serious. This does not help the majority
       | of owners fulfil their actual goals, which is acquiring currency
       | at the greatest rate possible.
        
       | nosefrog wrote:
       | My understanding is that promotion/relegation systems tend to
       | lead to more lop-sided leagues where the winners keep winning
       | because of the virtuous cycle of: more money from the TV rights
       | from being in the "champions" league -> buy better players -> the
       | better players keep you in the "champions" league.
       | 
       | That said, there are no American sports with a
       | promotion/relegation system (probably because those systems
       | evolved organically in Europe from local teams just becoming good
       | and gaining a following, and the American way of having
       | billionaires owning one of a small, fixed set of teams means that
       | they want to protect their investments and wouldn't accept a
       | chance of being relegated and losing their valuable TV money), so
       | it would be interesting if one of them picked it up. From an
       | outsider's perspective, though, I think it'd probably be better
       | to bias towards simplicity instead of trying to fix every
       | problem. E.g. instead of having the "must win 86 games in
       | two/three seasons to make it to the champions league", fix the
       | number of teams in the top league and promote the top of the
       | bottom league and relegate the bottom of the top league. Making
       | the system more complicated to prevent teams from tanking
       | probably isn't a worthwhile tradeoff, since 1) it sucks when
       | teams tank, but it's very exciting when a bad team starts to do
       | very well (e.g. the Bengals at this year's Super Bowl), and 2)
       | that system still doesn't stop the teams at the bottom of the
       | second league from tanking, since there's no punishment for them
       | and they can get better draft picks.
       | 
       | Though my 2c to improve baseball as someone who just started
       | watching football and tried to follow baseball when I was
       | younger:
       | 
       | 1. Reduce the number of games. In football, there are so few
       | games that each one matters a lot. In baseball, there are so many
       | that it's hard to be invested.
       | 
       | 2. Find a way to make games more fun to watch on TV. Going to a
       | ballpark in person is always a fun, chill experience as long as
       | you bring a friend. That atmosphere doesn't translate when you're
       | watching on TV, so the game itself probably has to be made more
       | exciting in some way (add more time pressure, or let the players
       | take steroids /s).
        
         | sien wrote:
         | In Europe you can't have rules about salary taxes and maximum
         | spend because football (soccer) is a truly international game
         | and other countries don't agree.
         | 
         | Also the TV money split is very inequitable in Spain with Real
         | Madrid and Barca getting ~50% of the leagues TV money where as
         | in England the TV money split is much more equitable. Baseball
         | also doesn't have a Champion's League so that's no issue.
         | 
         | With baseball you could have a fairly equitable split on TV
         | money and a salary tax at a certain point so you would still
         | get different teams winning over time.
        
         | arrosenberg wrote:
         | > My understanding is that promotion/relegation systems tend to
         | lead to more lop-sided leagues where the winners keep winning
         | because of the virtuous cycle of: more money from the TV rights
         | from being in the "champions" league -> buy better players ->
         | the better players keep you in the "champions" league.
         | 
         | This is sort of true, but I'd argue it still results in a
         | better product than the American model. Pro/rel in Europe tends
         | to vary based on the way TV rights money is divided and how
         | much is available. In Spain, your description is pretty
         | accurate, since Real Madrid and Barcelona can negotiate their
         | own rights with minimal revenue sharing. Those two teams will
         | always be near the top, as demonstrated by Barcelona's
         | performance this year - they've been complete trash and are
         | still tied for 4th on points. In England the TV money gets
         | divided up more evenly, and the result is that big clubs can
         | fail if their management is poor - Newcastle, West Ham, Aston
         | Villa, Fulham, and other large clubs have experience
         | relegation. Everton is at risk of it for the first time ever (I
         | believe) due to some really poor decisions by their front
         | office. On the other hand, Leicester City - a team no one had
         | heard of - won the EPL in 2016.
         | 
         | I'd prefer the league with a handful of locked-in elite clubs
         | where mobility is possible than a league where 1/3rd of the
         | teams are incentivized to lose, and another 1/3 know they have
         | nothing to play for while the season is still going.
        
       | paxys wrote:
       | What problem is the proposal trying to address? From what I see,
       | the two things it will "fix" are already non-issues.
       | 
       | 1. Better TV slots for good teams - this already happens in every
       | American sports league. Teams with popular star players, teams in
       | big markets and teams performing well get the prime time slots.
       | 
       | 2. Easier path to the playoffs for good teams - playoff
       | eligibility is contingent on regular season performance. Why
       | should it be any different? If you are a good team, play like it
       | and earn your spot.
        
       | jkingsbery wrote:
       | A change like this would never happen. But it is a fun thought
       | exercise. The current system in North American sports rewards
       | losing. Between getting better draft picks helping to improve the
       | roster and revenue sharing agreements minimizing any financial
       | impact of losing, it is better to be a bad team than a mediocre
       | team. Over the past 10 years or so, the result is that there are
       | the teams that are trying to win championships, and the teams
       | that consist of replacement-level talent. The current rules only
       | make sense when everyone is trying to win with similar effort
       | every year.
        
         | ethbr0 wrote:
         | > _the result is that there are the teams that are trying to
         | win championships, and the teams that consist of replacement-
         | level talent_
         | 
         | And then there are the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets, who
         | consistently spend hoarded top draft picks to not win
         | championships.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | nigerian1981 wrote:
         | Seems to be the model adopted by Manchester United too in
         | recent times who coincidentally have American owners
        
         | remarkEon wrote:
         | It's probably more accurate to say something like "NA sports
         | rewards losing after a certain threshold of mediocrity", but
         | you make a good point. The division of talent tends toward the
         | extremes.
        
       | Uhhrrr wrote:
       | I'm only a casual fan at best, but my impression is that there
       | are already informal tiers, and things like the draft and
       | (attempts at a) salary cap are designed to counter that
       | hierarchy. So I don't think this would go over well.
        
       | schoubey wrote:
       | We should introduce a new type of basketball league for players
       | under 6 feet tall for males and under 5 feet 9 inches tall for
       | females. While slam dunks will disappear, we will see new types
       | of tactics and shots.
        
         | mabbo wrote:
         | Or just raise the net by 2 feet.
        
       | subsubzero wrote:
       | I think the biggest problem with baseball is you can buy your way
       | to greatness. Not always mind you, but teams with seemingly
       | unlimited payrolls like the Dodgers, Giants, Phillies, Yankees
       | have a huge advantage over smaller market teams in terms of
       | attracting top talent and they are perennially "in the hunt"
       | which makes the chances of smaller franchises all the more
       | smaller. I know they implement revenue sharing to the smaller
       | teams but restricting the top teams salary would make for a more
       | compelling product.
       | 
       | Compare that to NFL football which has a very restrictive salary
       | cap and you get a scenario where any team in 1-2 years despite
       | how bad they are in a given year with great coaching and a smart
       | draft can get to the superbowl or win it all(see this years
       | Cincinnati Bengals, or last years Buccaneers).
        
         | xxpor wrote:
         | How many times have the Rays had a better record than the
         | Yankees in the past decade?
         | 
         | It's not all about the payroll any more. It's about who
         | _actually wants a good team and is willing to hire the right
         | people_.
         | 
         | The small market excuse is just that, an excuse. The value of
         | the franchises has been exploding. Direct revenue isn't a
         | meaningful constraint on payroll.
        
           | asdff wrote:
           | Small markets notoriously can't afford to keep their talent
           | around. Pros know they have a limited time in the league and
           | want to maximize revenue so they go to whoever offers them
           | the most. The tweet below is relevant to the sentiment:
           | 
           | https://twitter.com/cc_sabathia/status/1378175536774713348
        
             | cool_dude85 wrote:
             | >Small markets notoriously can't afford to keep their
             | talent around.
             | 
             | I highly doubt this, as a longtime Marlins fan. I strongly
             | suspect that "small market" teams are those owned by people
             | who notoriously don't want to spend more money than they
             | have to.
             | 
             | According to Forbes, the Rays were purchased in 2004 for
             | 200 million and are now worth 1.1B. In 18 years ownership
             | has received a total return of more than 500% on their
             | investment.
             | 
             | Now, for some strange reason, these teams don't want to
             | publish annual audited profit/loss numbers, but the Marlins
             | had those numbers leak for some of the franchise's bleakest
             | years. The leaks showed them making money hand over fist. I
             | suspect the same is true of the Rays during much of the
             | last 18 years. So, you have a profitable business (I
             | speculate) that's also appreciating in value at an
             | incredible rate. Sounds like someone who can afford to pay
             | the people who actually put butts in seats.
        
         | iratewizard wrote:
         | The products don't understand what they're selling (or are
         | desperate for Blackrock money). They continue to alienate fans
         | by continually injecting ESG propaganda into the product, when
         | most fans I know use it as an escape from all that inane
         | bullshit.
        
           | subsubzero wrote:
           | haha very much agree here. Baseball fans are probably one of
           | the more conservative/older fan bases in sports and the
           | leagues tilt towards ESG is quite baffling from a business
           | perspective. I think they are trying to be more relevant
           | again to younger fans by embracing stuff like this but could
           | see it backfiring by alienating a whole generation and
           | another with a strike on the horizon. Going back to the
           | strike back in the 90's that really mad alot folks mad and
           | set the stage for a large percentage of its fanbase to leave
           | and some of which never came back.
        
         | jimbob45 wrote:
         | Yep, that's the takeaway that I hope non-sports-fans will have
         | from this thread. The salary caps in the NFL/NBA promote parity
         | extremely well while maintaining the same pay level for the
         | vast majority of players. I'm told European soccer and MLB
         | suffer greatly from big-market teams heavily hoarding the
         | success.
        
           | smcl wrote:
           | You're not wrong, the state of football in Europe feels quite
           | unsustainable to me and rewards clubs who make huge financial
           | gambles or manage to get lucrative investment from
           | billionaires (or both!). Every now and again you'll see a
           | flash-in-the-pan where a slightly less well-off team will
           | succeed (Leicester a couple of years ago in the Premier
           | League springs to mind, though they were owned by a Thai
           | billionaire...) but overall it's pretty predictable.
           | 
           | It's a funny situation though because having stupendous
           | injections of cash doesn't always pay off. Paris Saint
           | Germain have been profligate in the transfer market and have
           | little to show for it on the European stage (and domestically
           | they didn't even win Ligue 1 last season). And sometimes just
           | a _modest_ investment, raising the wage bill by shrewd
           | signings can really upset things. There was a fairly sizeable
           | backlash at RB Leipzig - a team bought by Red Bull which
           | progressed through the ranks to the top level - suggesting
           | that they 'd bought their way to success. Which is true in a
           | sense but in reality _everyone_ who 's successful has
           | basically bought that success. Bayern's average salary is 8x
           | that of Leipzig's[0] - as an outsider it seems they were just
           | nervous at the idea of someone upsetting the balance. Right
           | now Leipzig are the fourth-highest wage bill and are fourth
           | in the Bundesliga.
           | 
           | I kinda hope one of these big clubs has a high-profile
           | collapse, it's a shame that it's Barcelona who have come
           | closest because I don't feel too much disdain for them. Scots
           | tend to have a soft-spot for Catalonia :) Interestingly we
           | weren't without our own big-spending-investor stories, Gretna
           | (tiny club from a town of 3,000 people) were bought by a
           | supposed-millionaire who bankrolled them to the top-level,
           | took a turn for the worse, withdrew his support and the club
           | then fell to pieces.
           | 
           | Anyway yet another ramble-y football comment from me, you can
           | tell I hang out with people who do not like the sport :)
           | 
           | [0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/675490/average-
           | bundeslig...
        
         | banannaise wrote:
         | One might argue that's an ownership incentive problem - there
         | are insufficient incentives for owners to spend enough money to
         | field a competitive baseball team. A bunch of owners are more
         | or less explicitly in it for the guaranteed profit that comes
         | with cheaply fielding uncompetitive teams.
         | 
         | (It's notable that teams in capped leagues also do this, most
         | noticeably in the NHL. So the salary cap doesn't solve this
         | problem so much as it redirects revenue from players to
         | owners.)
        
         | mkovach wrote:
         | You can try to buy your way to greatness, but it really works
         | as a long term solution. Signing at 28 year-old star to a 10
         | year contract means you have to managed an expensive older
         | player that will under-perform at the end of the contract. In a
         | few occasions that works, but generally you are spending more
         | for less at that point. Sure, you can keep spending, but you
         | eventually have an old aging team that is difficult to upgrade,
         | unless you trade players and agree to pay part of the salary.
         | 
         | The biggest problem in baseball is you have to maintain a minor
         | league AND a major league. You need younger less expansive
         | players, inexpensive players to fill the roster, and expensive
         | players. Depending on the market you need to either trade your
         | younger talent before it gets expensive (getting younger
         | players from other teams) and be able to develop those players.
         | Or, you have to be able sign high price players and make trades
         | to bring in lesser talented players from other teams to
         | developer your farm system, where you'll often trade your best
         | prospects for older, more expensive players.
         | 
         | Both systems have worked lately. Cleveland has had one of the
         | best records in baseball since 2014, but the Dodgers and
         | Yankees spend and do well.
         | 
         | The larger problem is revenue sharing in MLB. While there is
         | revenue sharing because of the TV contracts, New York, Boston,
         | and LA make a huge amount of money off local TV deals.
         | Cleveland, Tampa, et.al. make a lot less. So, unlike many other
         | sports, revenue is not shared equally and teams need different
         | ways to acquire and use talent.
         | 
         | In the NFL, you need to have a very good QB and you can build a
         | team around them. In the NBA, you need 2-3 very talented
         | players, mid-cost starters to fill your game day rotations and
         | strong reserves to handle injuries and such. Since those
         | leagues share revenue that can implement caps and floors with
         | salary. Sorry, I can't talk about the NHL, I don't understand
         | their business enough.
         | 
         | The bigger problem with the MLB is their lack of equal revenue
         | sharing makes a floor and cap next to impossible to setup. MLB
         | teams simply are not going to put all their money in a big pool
         | and share it.
        
         | spike021 wrote:
         | Many of the teams in MLB are more than affluent enough to
         | afford players. They just choose not to.
         | 
         | This is why there should be a salary floor as well as ceiling.
        
       | Imnimo wrote:
       | This is an interesting idea and would be something to consider if
       | we were building MLB from scratch. I think it's a non-starter as
       | a modification of the current system, though.
       | 
       | It's a great idea for an OOTP simulation. (OOTP is a highly
       | detailed baseball management simulation game that accommodates
       | things like this)
        
       | jeffalbertson wrote:
       | the XFL missed an opportunity to focus on baseball instead. NFL
       | is too strong on the marketing front and dynamically changes
       | their rules to meet new needs.
       | 
       | Baseball is poorly marketed and is extremely slow to change (not
       | always a bad thing). But an XBL, or something like it, would have
       | been a stronger challenger to the MLB than the XFL was to the
       | NFL.
        
         | Spooky23 wrote:
         | The difference is that colleges and high schools are the farm
         | leagues for football and basketball.
         | 
         | Baseball is vertically integrated, and the talent is mostly
         | controlled immediately.
        
           | moate wrote:
           | MLB also have a literal monopoly in place and endorsed by
           | law. So, there's also that.
        
       | darig wrote:
        
       | arrosenberg wrote:
       | MLB will never make structural reforms without Congress forcing
       | the issue. The labor issues always come down to mental gymnastics
       | one must do to justify and work around the government granted
       | monopoly the major sports leagues have (de jure for MLB, de facto
       | for the rest). The leagues should be structured much more
       | similarly to European Football with relegation, promotion and
       | league cups. That structure eliminates tanking, salary issues,
       | service time and arbitration, deflates some of the power of TV
       | and marketing budgets, and a whole host of other issues. It also
       | gives smaller American cities a shot at seeing major league teams
       | play locally, which for baseball at least, seems like a no
       | brainer thing that should happen.
       | 
       | If you are going to restructure the leagues, it should be done
       | geographically - West, Southeast/MidAtlantic, Great Lakes and
       | East. With the elimination of the DH, it makes exactly no sense
       | for LA teams to each play 50+ east coast games and only 6 against
       | each other. That would also allow for some expansion as cities
       | like Nashville, Portland and SLC could easily fill out some of
       | the regions.
        
         | fastball wrote:
         | How are the sports leagues government granted monopolies?
        
           | arrosenberg wrote:
           | MLB has a de jure antitrust exception granted in 1922. The
           | other sports leagues have consolidated and the government has
           | failed to break them up, ergo, a de facto monopoly.
        
             | EpicEng wrote:
             | Wow I had no idea about this. Apparently there's a
             | challenge happening right now
             | 
             | https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/01/08/mlb-
             | antitru...
        
           | maxwell wrote:
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Baseball_Club_v._Natio.
           | ..
        
         | ralph84 wrote:
         | Agree that MLB should have its antitrust exemption revoked, but
         | relegation would be a tough pill to swallow with how much has
         | been invested in MLB stadiums. Globe Life Field opened in 2020
         | at a cost of $1.1 billion. The numbers don't work if suddenly
         | it's hosting minor league games.
        
       | switz wrote:
       | Interesting thought experiment, but as is often the problem in
       | North American sports, it hurts small market teams. What free
       | agent is going to willingly join a small market team out of the
       | champions league that has less capital to expend than large
       | market teams. You end up with a negative feedback loop in which
       | small market teams have an even tougher time affording to compete
       | or incentivizing free agents to join. This is already a problem
       | and a structure like this (namely, the 3-5 year qualification
       | period) only compounds it. If a smaller market team hasn't had
       | any qualifying seasons in 5 years it essentially pits them into
       | purgatory.
       | 
       | Personally, I'd like to see the season shortened (in # of games)
       | to give each game a more outsized impact. Give teams a bit more
       | rest to enable shorter rotations (star pitchers get more game
       | time) and expand the playoffs slightly (via play-in games) to
       | lessen the soul crushing nature of missing the playoffs by a
       | single game after a grueling 162 game season. Not that any of
       | these ideas are novel or perfect, but it's clear baseball has
       | engagement issues that are not improving any time soon.
        
         | long_time_gone wrote:
         | >but as is often the problem in North American sports, it hurts
         | small market teams.
         | 
         | In the case of baseball, the negotiations are being held up by
         | the small-market owners because the existing system is so
         | beneficial to them. There is a de-facto salary cap through the
         | Competitive Balance Tax, which directs money straight from the
         | richest to the poorest teams. Meanwhile, there is no guarantee
         | that the poor teams spend that money on actually improving
         | their team.
         | 
         | I don't see any non-North American system where small-market
         | teams perform this well. In the NFL, small-market Cincinnati
         | was just in the Super Bowl because of a draft process that
         | rewards poor performance.
        
         | daed wrote:
         | If they had a hard salary cap + floor like the NFL that would
         | help some. But otherwise agree 100%.
        
       | briangri wrote:
       | I think that this article looks to European football as a model,
       | whereas it would do better to look to the NFL.
       | 
       | I'd implement a few economic reforms:
       | 
       | - Decent wages for minor leaguers - Hard salary cap and floor per
       | team such that players take home ~55% of revenue
       | 
       | And a few gameplay reforms:
       | 
       | - Pitch clock, to speed up pace of play - Tweak the baseball
       | and/or mound placement, to discourage the home run / strikeout
       | style and incentivize more balls in play - Cap the number of
       | relief pitchers per game
       | 
       | This would make the game faster, more visually appealing, more
       | equitable between teams (so every team will be forced to spend /
       | have a good shot to keep their best players) all without any
       | extreme changes.
        
       | mbg721 wrote:
       | Baseball has a rapidly-dissolving semi-religious status in the US
       | (losing some ground to the NFL), and its owners definitely don't
       | get it. I think it's mostly gone after '94 anyway. My personal
       | guess is that its popularity is correlated with family size.
        
         | asdff wrote:
         | It depends on the market. Small markets have been hurting, but
         | teams like the dodgers have been making millions hand over fist
         | the last 10 years, revenue only being down really because of
         | expected covid cancellations.
        
           | mbg721 wrote:
           | Why are the Dodgers making money? Is it TV rights, or the way
           | revenue is divided up, or are they just filling up the
           | stadium because demand is huge?
        
             | jacobkg wrote:
             | All of the above. Dodgers signed a massive $8B TV deal and
             | also routinely fill their stadium which has the second
             | largest capacity in MLB
        
             | EduardoBautista wrote:
             | The have the highest average attendance in baseball by a
             | significant margin.
             | 
             | https://www.espn.com/mlb/attendance
        
               | asdff wrote:
               | They just dumped millions into renovations too, and
               | eventually there will even be a gondola from the metro
               | system up the hill to the stadium. It seems the owners
               | are pretty bullish.
        
         | marktangotango wrote:
         | Baseball was a game for the "dog days" of summer, and no air
         | conditioning. The typical, agrarian 3 months summer vacations
         | meant there were hordes of kids trying to fill in the time
         | between dusk and dawn. Now kids stay inside and play vidya
         | games all summer. Baseballs time is past, imo.
        
         | mikepurvis wrote:
         | Canada too. Here in Waterloo Region we have a particularly
         | goofy situation where I believe a number of prominent public
         | parks were formed after the land was donated in the early 20th
         | century by wealthy local industrialists, with the single
         | eternal proviso that there had to always be a functional
         | baseball diamond on the property.
         | 
         | I'm sure this made sense at the time, but it's super
         | frustrating now living in these neighbourhoods where there's a
         | big park with vast green space that is mostly unused, and the
         | amenities people actually want and use (tennis courts,
         | playground, community garden, skate park, hangout space)
         | shunted to the very edges of the space, and no room for
         | potential alternative uses such as a soccer pitch.
        
           | Ekaros wrote:
           | Maybe they should band up, gather money, buy some property
           | and then bulldoze it and build a park?
        
             | mikepurvis wrote:
             | ... I guess?
             | 
             | The point is more just that you can't know the future, and
             | any constraint like that should have limitations on it,
             | with an upperbound of something like 99 years. That's more
             | than enough time for your kids, grand kids, and even
             | _their_ kids to all enjoy playing baseball in the park,
             | while not saddling your community with your specific vision
             | of outdoor recreation for all time.
             | 
             | Like sure, the land donation was no doubt generous and
             | appreciated, and the people involved would have foregone a
             | potential payday had they sold it to a developer to be
             | carved up instead. But on the flipside, it was probably
             | also a big tax writeoff, and the city inherited the
             | unbounded future cost of its maintenance, lost tax revenue,
             | and so on.
        
         | kevinmchugh wrote:
         | I found statista saying average US family size to be basically
         | steady for the last 30 years.[0] (median might be better but I
         | couldn't find it). I would expect football to have fallen in
         | popularity if it were about ability to field a team.
         | 
         | The steroid scandal, hd TVs, changing media consumption,
         | sabremetrics, rule changes make more sense to me.
         | 
         | 0: https://www.statista.com/statistics/183657/average-size-
         | of-a....
        
           | mbg721 wrote:
           | 30 years is a short enough time in this case; one generation
           | (my age) might play baseball because their parents did, even
           | though the neighborhood doesn't have 18 kids with nothing to
           | do, but the next would find no reason to.
        
       | xphilter wrote:
       | So pro/rel for baseball? It'd be amazing if it happened for
       | baseball before soccer in the US.
        
         | rossitter wrote:
         | This wouldn't really be pro/rel, not as it's implemented in
         | European football anyway. It's a single league where entry into
         | the lucrative year-end tournament is partly based on long-term
         | (3- or 5-year) performance, whereas now it is only short-term
         | (1-year).
        
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