[HN Gopher] TSMC R&D chief: There's light at the end of the chip...
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       TSMC R&D chief: There's light at the end of the chip shortage
        
       Author : t23
       Score  : 85 points
       Date   : 2022-02-28 18:48 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (spectrum.ieee.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (spectrum.ieee.org)
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | danuker wrote:
       | Recent discussion:
       | 
       | Global chip shortage may soon turn into an oversupply crisis
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30489538
        
       | turbinerneiter wrote:
       | Well, I'm banking on an oversupply which makes production cheaper
       | by making my team build up chip design knowledge, so we have some
       | designs ready when it happens. If not, FPGA dev skills will still
       | be super useful for our work.
        
         | madengr wrote:
        
       | ohazi wrote:
       | If we manage to get through this chip shortage and then China
       | decides to invade Taiwan and we lose TSMC, I'm gonna fucking lose
       | it. Everything feels so fragile right now.
        
         | jotm wrote:
         | Tell me about it. I have invested in a new business (anyone
         | want a fully custom PC case? heh), and now I have to stock up
         | on food and seriously consider how to live with long mass
         | blackouts, as well as prepare for mobilization to fight Russian
         | invaders if they succeed in Ukraine. Eh, I'm already suicidal,
         | so that would be a better way to go, I guess.
        
         | winstongator wrote:
         | I wonder if TSMC has a self-destruct button. I do not think
         | they want CCP to take over those fabs. Agree, this is a worst
         | case scenario, and we need to get at least one TSMC fab in the
         | US.
        
           | Traster wrote:
           | I imagine the conversation goes like this "Sorry, Mr Xi
           | Jinping, your bombs caused seismic activity that destroyed
           | the calibration of our machines and of the the 5,000 highly
           | trained engineers we employ, only 2 turned up today and I'm
           | not sure how much work we can expect from Raffles the team
           | mascot.
        
           | j_walter wrote:
           | There are a few key points in the process that you could
           | easily disrupt and pretty much cause a scorched earth type of
           | response. There are a few ways to do it as well...like export
           | all of the photo masks to the US or Europe. Those fabs can't
           | produce anything without them...and all of the ones for their
           | Taiwan advanced fabs could probably all be loaded into a
           | dozen or less shipping containers. Destroying them is another
           | way to go about it if you can't get them out of the country
           | safely.
        
         | Traster wrote:
         | This is absolutely the lens we need to view the Ukranian crisis
         | through. It's actually quite surprising that Europe has acted
         | so strongly and unanimously in their condemnation of Russia
         | given that they _really_ need Russian gas to heat their homes.
         | Sure, they haven 't literally turned off the gas because they
         | can't, but they've done everything but. It's up to Russia at
         | this point but they absolutely can turn off that gas, and it
         | has been suggested that they were limiting exports for the last
         | 6 months to make sure Europe didn't have any stockpiles to
         | weather an event like this.
         | 
         | I think recent events send a message to China that Western
         | countries are perfectly willing to act against their own
         | interests purely to punish a country that steps out of line.
         | The whole of western Europe will suffer to punish Russia in
         | this conflict, but the conflict has taken a situation where
         | countries were semi-committed and made them fully committed.
         | Germany's stance now, would've been unthinkable 1 month ago. It
         | highlights how easy it is to push countries away.
        
           | GoToRO wrote:
           | There are two pipes: one bings gas from Russia and the other
           | cash from Europe. You turn the first one off, the second one
           | is off as well.
        
       | WithinReason wrote:
       | "In his personal opinion--not necessarily that of TSMC--it is
       | going to take two to three years to bring new fabs online to
       | resolve the situation."
        
         | jaywalk wrote:
         | Given his position within the company, I'd say that his
         | personal opinion holds quite a bit of weight.
        
           | nickff wrote:
           | My understanding is that presenting 'official positions'
           | outside of shareholder meetings and disclosures can cause
           | legal issues. He may be stating that it's a personal opinion
           | to avoid that issue.
           | 
           | https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/regulationfd.asp
        
         | shmerl wrote:
         | That's from now or from the beginning of that construction?
        
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       (page generated 2022-02-28 23:00 UTC)