[HN Gopher] Twitter based map of Russian troop movements
___________________________________________________________________
Twitter based map of Russian troop movements
Author : jillesvangurp
Score : 515 points
Date : 2022-02-24 09:29 UTC (13 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (maphub.net)
(TXT) w3m dump (maphub.net)
| top_sigrid wrote:
| As on social media it is very hard to tell whether posted footage
| and information is genuine, recent and from the claimed places,
| crowdsourcing the collection of sources probably is a good idea.
| Hopefully this will help distinguishing legit from fake
| information.
| darrenf wrote:
| IMO @Shayan86 (a BBC journalist specialising is conspiracy
| theories, disinformation, extremism, etc) does a good job of
| this: https://twitter.com/Shayan86
| londons_explore wrote:
| So far, most false info seems to be recognisable by a non-
| expert within a few minutes of research.
|
| For example, when I see a twitter video of army trucks going
| down a freeway geotagged, I can at least use satellite view on
| google maps to match up landmarks and confirm the location is
| accurate, and I can check the sun position and weather to get
| an idea if the date/time is accurate.
|
| Most 'fake news' stories seem to fail even these basic checks,
| although it would be pretty easy to fake these elements too.
| HatchedLake721 wrote:
| This doesn't stop tens of millions of people taking it in as
| truth.
| BurningPenguin wrote:
| I'd say actually checking them is already a basic expert
| move. Most people don't even know about geotags, and certain
| groups don't even care.
| 0x38B wrote:
| Case in point:
|
| > For Eastern Ukraine specifically, this has included a
| supposed infiltration by Ukrainian saboteurs into Russia. [2]
| Geolocation of the footage (taken from the helmet of one of the
| Ukrainian soldiers that supposedly participated in the
| infiltration) debunked the story within an hour after it turned
| out that the supposed incursion into Russian territory was
| carried out from separatist-held territory. [3] Rather than
| showing the bodies of the five Ukrainian soldiers that were
| supposedly killed in the raid, Russia instead showed a
| destroyed BTR-70M armoured personnel carrier (APC) that was
| painted in an ill-conceived attempt to make it look like a
| Ukrainian vehicle. [4] Ironically, Ukraine doesn't even operate
| the BTR-70M, further showing the attention (or lack thereof)
| that goes into these false flag operations.
|
| Source: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/false-flag-
| shenanigans...
| midasuni wrote:
| Lies spread like wildfire
|
| Disproving them takes far more resources than spreading, and
| doesn't spread
| reitanqild wrote:
| Good thing is it seems people are getting better at
| remembering who lied most and most recently. (Yes, that is
| me kind of implicitly admitting that the war against WMD in
| Iraq was based on lies. I want Nato but I don't want
| Afghanistan, Iraq etc.)
|
| At this point, after
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17
| and after repeatedly saying they wouldn't invade Ukraine
| etc etc everyone should know that even if we don't always
| trust our own, Putin and those loyal to him are absolutely
| untrustworthy.
| awb wrote:
| On mobile at least some of the links are plain text and aren't
| clickable. I found an orange bubble in Donbas like that. Any one
| else have that issue?
| arcastroe wrote:
| I've found Snapchat Maps to be an interesting "real-time" source
| of people's on the ground view of Kyiv and Kharkiv and other
| populated cities in Ukraine. Can see people's photos and videos
| from the last 48 hours and it helps paint a picture of the
| situation (to complement curated images from media sources).
| toxik wrote:
| Uh, this is missing bombings in several Ukrainian cities, not
| least Kiyv, Lviv, ~Donbas~ Donetsk.
| nine_k wrote:
| Nit: Donbas is not a city, the city is Donetsk, and Donbas is
| the name of the region around it, from "Donetsk (coal) basin".
|
| Lviv is a city _very_ close to the border with Poland, a NATO
| member.
| mytailorisrich wrote:
| No military expert but it looks like they are following a
| pretty standard strategy of targeting and destroying air
| power throughout the country by bombing airports, radars, and
| air force facilities in general.
|
| How far will their ground troops then go? We shall see...
| toxik wrote:
| No doubt the Russian strategy will be to establish a strong
| presence on the western side of the Dnieper.
| [deleted]
| unfocussed_mike wrote:
| It maps troop movements, though. All of those initial bombings
| have happened from Russia, Crimea and Belarus.
|
| Apparently this phase won't last long because it can't (Russia
| according to analysts in the Guardian doesn't have many guided
| munitions in this range).
|
| So we will perhaps see this map change very quickly as troops
| move in.
| superdug wrote:
| It's a weird place to be where I can watch a war unfold on
| television and have live geotagged curated material laid out on a
| map on my computer. It's amazing and depressing at the same time.
| LesZedCB wrote:
| The phenomenon is at least as old as Baudrillard's work _The
| Gulf War Did Not Take Place_
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gulf_War_Did_Not_Take_Plac...
| trinovantes wrote:
| Definitely surreal to watch war unfold in real time on
| twitter/tiktok
| dereg wrote:
| Indeed. The first time I felt this sensation was during the
| Japanese tsunamis, where we were fed a live, HD footage of the
| flooding from the vantage point of news helicopters.
|
| I pray that we'll never have to use tools like these for
| anything other than leisure.
| paganel wrote:
| The same happened with /r/syriancivilwar back in 2014-2015, in
| that case it was even more depressing because you also had some
| nutjobs like ISIS directly involved in said conflict, which
| meant massacres like this one [1] getting reported almost in
| real time, with images from the place where it had all happened
| and all that. The 2014 fight between Russia and Ukraine was
| also heavily documented in almost real time.
|
| [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camp_Speicher_massacre
| baybal2 wrote:
| propagandist wrote:
| People are wary of government messaging because of things like
| the Gulf of Tonkin and the WMD debacle.
|
| Unfortunately in this case, it was credible and the strategy of
| declassifying did seem to work but clearly Putin has made up
| his mind.
|
| One more thing: this is definitely not the place for "I told
| you so".
| egeozcan wrote:
| > I believe I am no mad preacher, and have more authority to
| speak on this matter than most of Western "geopolitical think
| tanks"
|
| > I studied politics, sociology, military sciences, and history
| as my _passion_
|
| > Do not do "Mad preacher" labelling
|
| I cannot test your knowledge. For me you are just another
| account crying large-scale war. You present no evidence, other
| than a few observations, stories and a strong conviction of
| self-grandeur.
|
| I'm not saying you are lying, being super intelligent or just
| exaggerating, but many people won't "just trust you". You
| should understand that.
| baybal2 wrote:
| > I'm not saying you are lying, being super intelligent or
| just exaggerating, but many people won't "just trust you".
| You should understand that.
|
| I don't ask you to trust me. I ask HN readers to listen to
| their own countries' military experts.
|
| Your generals who spent half their life studying Russian, and
| Chinese militaries in Westpoint, Saint-Cur and Sandhurst
| didn't do that for nothing.
| Cthulhu_ wrote:
| The author would be more credible if they revealed their
| identity and showed some credentials, otherwise it's just
| another voice on the internet; it could be a subject matter
| expert, it could be an armchair expert, could be part of the
| Russian propaganda machine, or it could be a troll.
| noduerme wrote:
| If Putin attempts war against a NATO country, e.g. Lithuania,
| my only hope is that NATO will stand together and respond with
| forces on the ground. If he escalates to use nuclear weapons,
| he's a fool and I hope the Russian people will tear him to
| pieces in the street before he condemns them to death.
| jb1991 wrote:
| It is going to be very interesting to see if there is in fact
| a military alliance behind the military alliance.
| noduerme wrote:
| I had doubt before this.
|
| I mean, everyone in Europe had doubt that anyone would
| respond to Hitler before he invaded Poland.
|
| But when he invaded Poland, the world changed on a dime. I
| don't think there will be any daylight between any western
| nations now, when it comes to how to deal with Russia. You
| can't deal with a mad dog by giving it treats.
|
| If there was any doubt before about NATO's mutual
| obligations, Putin has done away with that. Russia is about
| to become North Korea until one of Putin's close friends
| kills him. Which should take about six months.
| Cthulhu_ wrote:
| > If he escalates to use nuclear weapons, he's a fool
|
| And we're all be dead. Nukes is basically flipping the board;
| if I can't win, nobody will.
|
| I mean I hope that won't happen, and that Russia's military
| collapses in on itself as Russia's access to the
| international (financial) market is pulled. That'll probably
| take a while though, it's attrition. It might make the
| Russian people upset enough to be able to enact change, but
| not while the police and military are still on Putin's side
| and happy to stop any protests or whatnot.
| noduerme wrote:
| Yes, one thing about Putin's mafia form of government is
| that if the godfather is no longer able to keep the money
| flowing, he will be put to pasture and someone with a
| cooler head will take his place. It's an unfortunate
| situation for Russia but even if Putin goes insane and
| wants to die in a nuclear fire, his system of patronage
| will follow the logic of greed. And they're going to be
| very angry about this when they lose their yachts.
| not_kurt_godel wrote:
| There is an entire site dedicated to this purpose that has been
| running since 2014: https://liveuamap.com
| k0k0r0 wrote:
| There is also https://ukrstream.tv/en/liveuamap which seems
| like a clone. Sonce I often get errors from liveumap, I use
| that instead. I didn't find any differences apart from less
| funtionality. But I didn't check that throughoutly, though.
| siver_john wrote:
| Thank you for sharing, I had been looking for this after seeing
| it on here the other day but I couldn't remember the name or
| anything at all.
| notemaker wrote:
| Error 520
| not_kurt_godel wrote:
| Yeah it's getting hammered. But still functional on most
| refreshes for me.
| igammarays wrote:
| I'm in downtown Kharkiv, Ukraine right now (SaaS founder born in
| Canada). Woke up to explosions at 5 AM this morning. At 12PM
| still some explosions, can feel the ground shaking, but the
| streets are mostly calm. Went out to buy some groceries, long
| lines, but everything still works. Police cars are out patrolling
| in full force, but no signs of unrest. Church bells tolling
| nonstop. TransferWise is limited to $200 USD transfers but it
| worked -- Apple Pay worked at the grocery store. Obviously
| internet and electricity is still up for now, but water pipes
| have been shut off in many of my friend's places.
| azinman2 wrote:
| Curious - why did you stay in Ukraine despite all the warnings?
| iso1210 wrote:
| Dunno about OP, but the BBC has an interview with a Scottish
| man in Kharkov, who was unable to leave with his wife and
| stepson because of "Ukranian bureaucracy" on this
| ridiculously long URL
|
| https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-
| europe-60454795?ns_mch...
| originalvichy wrote:
| Good luck and stay safe.
| sillysaurusx wrote:
| What was your impression of the grocery store? Were the shelves
| mostly bare, or pretty full?
|
| I heard most stores are mostly out of stock ("only expensive
| food is left") and that supplies are expected to last 15-25
| days, but I was curious if that was accurate.
|
| Thanks for the tip about TransferWise -- I wasn't sure how to
| send money to people. My go-to is usually Venmo, but I haven't
| tried it internationally.
| igammarays wrote:
| Got there at 11 AM, shelves were still half-full, but bread
| was gone and it was clear everything would be gone by the end
| of the day.
| scrollaway wrote:
| Good luck. My girlfriend is Ukrainian and has been working on
| her family's evacuation plan as well all morning.
|
| There's an interesting contrast between this comment and your
| previous one from yesterday, and she shares how you feel. She
| was taken aback by how this "came out of nowhere", even though
| it really didn't. Up until this morning, she didn't believe an
| invasion was possible.
| martingoodson wrote:
| 'Normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a cognitive bias which
| leads people to disbelieve or minimize threat warnings'
|
| https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias
|
| We saw this at the start of the pandemic too.
| Spivakov wrote:
| There is also
|
| "Hindsight bias, also known as the knew-it-all-along
| phenomenon, is the common tendency for people to perceive
| past events as having been more predictable than they
| actually were."
|
| https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias
|
| No I do not appreciate it that the comments under this
| thread all expecting civilians to be well prepared for
| escalation of war.
| ajb wrote:
| It can be that but there is also denial, which is a
| slightly different mechanism. From Jared Diamond's
| "collapse":
|
| "For example, consider a narrow river valley below a high
| dam, such that if the dam burst, the resulting flood of
| water would drown people for a con- siderable distance
| downstream. When attitude pollsters ask people down- stream
| of the dam how concerned they are about the dam's bursting,
| it's not surprising that fear of a dam burst is lowest far
| downstream, and increases among residents increasingly
| close to the dam. Surprisingly, though, after you get to
| just a few miles below the dam, where fear of the dam's
| breaking is found to be highest, the concern then falls off
| to zero as you approach closer to the dam! That is, the
| people living immediately under the dam, the ones most
| certain to be drowned in a dam burst, profess unconcern.
| That's because of psychological denial: the only way of
| preserving one's sanity while looking up every day at the
| dam is to deny the possibility that it could burst.
| Although psychological denial is a phenomenon well
| established in individual psychology, it seems likely to
| apply to group psychology as well."
| [deleted]
| yakshaving_jgt wrote:
| I left my home in Odessa yesterday evening, spent the night
| in Izmail, and crossed the border into Romania this morning.
|
| None of my friends in Ukraine believed this would happen. I
| was often met with "Oh... You shouldn't believe everything
| you see in the media...".
|
| I am devastated.
| thelittleone wrote:
| I'm glad you're safe.
|
| To what extent do you feel that the sense of security there
| (disbelief this attack would happen) stemmed from the
| belief that Western interests would serve as an effective
| deterrent? Or do you attribute it to something else?
|
| I'm ashamed that my government (Australia) has done so
| little in response. 10 days ago the government was touting
| how they'd offered online cybersecurity training for
| Ukraine. It would be laughable if it wasn't so tragic.
|
| There should have been far greater support with defenses in
| place to effectively mitigate the risk. Did the West
| seriously take Putin for his word that he would respect
| Ukraine's borders and is the best we have in response
| sanctions? On top of that, Biden said that personal
| sanctions against Putin are still on the table [1]. Not
| done already? Doesn't this effectively amount to a green
| light to the effect of "Yes we're pissed, but its ok, just
| don't do something really crazy and we won't punish you
| personally".
|
| I'm really sorry you've had to leave your country. I don't
| suggest troops or NATO getting involved. I don't have an
| answer that is better, but I'm pointing out that the lack
| of planning is simply astonishing. It's tragic that the
| people of Ukraine are paying for that.
|
| [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/biden-says-
| sanctions-ag...
| altdataseller wrote:
| Do the border controls there have a place for all the
| refugees to stay, or are you just expected to find a place
| yourself?
| raducu wrote:
| Romanian here. Our government said we could host up to
| 500.000 refugees.
|
| I doubt we could do that, but I'm sure they have enough
| spaces right now for all reffugees.
|
| The news is that no ukrainian refugees want to stay in
| romanian provided places at the moment -- they either
| have relatives/friends where they'll be staying with or
| they immediately want to go to wealthier countries in
| Central/Western Europe.
|
| That could probably change as more ukrainians flee --
| those desperate and those that have no friends or means
| to travel to other parts.
|
| I've seen footage of ukrainian mothers WALKING for two
| hours to the border with their children, it broke my
| heart.
| blobbers wrote:
| Glad you're geographically in a position where you can
| help. You should start a gofundme or something on here so
| that people can send you money to help the people you
| encounter.
| amatecha wrote:
| It surprises me to hear that residents were surprised. Among
| everything else, the most alarming/clear warning that a
| serious safety threat was looming was when Russia's diplomats
| started leaving the country. That strikes me a pretty certain
| indicator of imminent and real danger.
| BbzzbB wrote:
| I wish your girlfriend and her family a safe and timely
| evacuation. It is heart breaking how normalcy can turn to a
| hot war so fast. Hopefully it doesn't keep escalating, but
| there is absolutely no reason to stick around and find out.
|
| People underestimate how quickly a tense situation can turn
| to horror. My mother told me people in ex-Yugoslavia were
| going to their cabin to wait for it to blow over at the dawn
| of war. Even while it's going strong they underestimate just
| how bad it is; for instance in the middle of it (like 3 years
| in) you keep thinking it's gonna pass sooner rather then
| later. Then there was a bit of a lull and people thought it
| was over, life coming back to normalcy - hence why we hadn't
| fled yet, and why I was born in that period. Before you know
| it, it gets worst then it's ever been, literal hell on Earth
| and you're trapped for it, with army and blockades at every
| exit restricting movement and catching deserters. We were
| lucky to be in a region where it was possible for my mom, my
| brother and myself to get out (pretending you're going next
| town and some bribe money, but you obviously can't pack your
| things and show blockaders that you're getting the fuck out)
| and reach an embassy to seek asylum (unlike poor souls who
| were stuck in hell holes like Sarajevo or god forbid
| Srebrenica). If you're a man it's even harder as you're a
| deserter in some warlord's conflict, my dad couldn't have
| escaped his nth drafting without savvy trickery, and we know
| for a fact he wouldn't have made it out alive if we didn't
| turn on a dime and bail.
|
| Obviously not the same situation, but if people in ex-
| Yugoslavia were able to justify sticking to it for _years_ ,
| expecting it to blow over and not see how the whole situation
| was a powder keg, it shows how easy it is to miss war turning
| for the worst, let alone when it's lurking over the corner.
| qqqwerty wrote:
| I am genuinely curious. Did she not trust Biden's warnings?
| Or did she think the media was overblowing it?
|
| The "media" gets a bad rap, but I think we have reached a
| particularly bad place if the general public is so
| distrustful of it that we can't use it to communicate about
| very serious public safety matters.
| sillysaurusx wrote:
| Fwiw, my Ukrainian friend DMed me two days ago saying he
| was tired of the media "fearmongering". Then a few hours
| ago he sent "oh shit, war has started".
|
| I think people just genuinely didn't think Putin would call
| everyone's bluff and be willing to eat all the economic
| sanctions.
| noduerme wrote:
| In fairness, it's pretty nuts if you're just an ordinary
| person, to believe someone would be insane enough to
| invade your country for virtually no reason.
| chasd00 wrote:
| I try to think about this by putting myself in Putin's
| shoes but i keep drawing blanks. I only see downsides to
| the invasion and no upside from the perspective of
| Russia. I must be missing something huge that has a value
| > than the cost because the cost, in all terms, is very
| very high.
| aenis wrote:
| Once you have as much as Putin, have toadies listening to
| your every whim and reinforcing every paranoia -- its
| easy to just start doing stupid things. Small people do
| it all the time, at smaller scales, big despots go big.
| Thats why the most important thing is to keep term
| limits. Power increses expotentially with time in office.
| jldugger wrote:
| The cost to the Russian people is high, but the cost to
| Putin and his entourage is yet another toothless freeze
| on overseas assets (the ones they know about), some
| irrelevant protests in Moscow, and a hefty increase in
| oil prices.
| Uehreka wrote:
| Hefty increases in oil prices have a way of changing
| people's minds. Particularly people who don't normally
| care about politics.
| 8note wrote:
| That would mean a softening on Russia taking the Ukraine.
| It's not Russia driving the increase in prices
| jldugger wrote:
| Can you expand on that? Russia's main export is oil.
| bluecalm wrote:
| Isn't oil price increasing good for Russia though? Their
| oil isn't as cheap to extract so price increasing
| multiplies their profit very significantly if they can
| find a buyer.
| Jtsummers wrote:
| The sanctions being levied against them will impair their
| ability to sell to a large portion of the world,
| including current (well, now former I suppose) trade
| partners in Europe. While they could try to undercut the
| global price in order to make their oil more appealing to
| remaining trade partners, it's going to be a challenge
| depending on how the current and future sanctions develop
| to even get to market.
|
| A quick search gives this as the answer to who their
| largest oil buyers are: China, the European Union, South
| Korea, India and Japan.
|
| China will do what China wants here. But South Korea,
| Japan, and the European Union will end up being harder to
| sell to, if possible at all, in the near future. India is
| a toss-up, depends on how they decide to participate in
| all this.
| jldugger wrote:
| > Isn't oil price increasing good for Russia though?
|
| Yes. From Putin's POV: two mehs and one thumbs way up
| causi wrote:
| _Putin 's shoes but i keep drawing blanks. I only see
| downsides to the invasion and no upside from the
| perspective of Russia_
|
| That's your problem. Putin doesn't care about Russia.
| This invasion has nothing at all to do with the economic
| or strategic well-being of the nation of Russia. This has
| to do with the preservation and expansion of the
| political power of one single man and his oligarchal
| cronies. The rest of the country can burn as long as they
| hold power.
| threeseed wrote:
| He cares about the legacy of Russia more than the day to
| day reality of it.
|
| It's very common amongst leaders who have been in power
| for so long.
|
| Also given his age he is unlikely to be around to see the
| negative decline of Russia as a result of this action.
| waffle_maniac wrote:
| Great comment.
|
| Biggest mistake the West has made is thinking that soft
| power will work with Putin. He just doesn't care.
| Sanction some oligarchs and he still goes home to his
| palace like nothing ever happened.
| threeseed wrote:
| There is also a mistaken view that oligarchs control what
| happens in Russia.
|
| It's simply not true. He has enriched them not the other
| way around.
| jacquesm wrote:
| Exactly. Like I tried to explain to someone here earlier
| today: stop using Russia as your reference point, switch
| to Putin as your reference point and it all makes a lot
| more sense.
| frabbit wrote:
| NATO has been steadily moving in towards Russia, picking
| off ex-Soviet satellite states one by one, and
| withdrawing from the treaties that kept the EU safe:
|
| This was one of the pivotal moments: "US President George
| W Bush, in 2002, pulled the US out of the Anti-Ballistic
| Missile Treaty, which banned weapons designed to counter
| ballistic nuclear missiles."
| https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49198565
|
| Since then it has been slow and steady escalation
| https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/timeline/
|
| while we fritter away the time that would allow us to
| deal with Climate Destruction.
|
| Yes Putin == $BAD_MAN. Yes USA == $OTHER_BAD_MENS. No,
| neither of those justifies military action on either
| side.
|
| This is a stupid waste of time.
| older wrote:
| It has nothing to do with NATO, it is just another lie
| invented as excuse to invade. Here they still have it on
| the kremlin website:
|
| "I am absolutely convinced that Ukraine will not shy away
| from the processes of expanding interaction with NATO and
| the Western allies as a whole. Ukraine has its own
| relations with NATO; there is the Ukraine-NATO Council.
| At the end of the day the decision is to be taken by NATO
| and Ukraine. It is a matter for those two partners."
|
| http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/21598
| frabbit wrote:
| And? That statement occurred 4 or 5 months before the USA
| had withdrawn from the ABMT.
|
| I don't know enough about Russia's changing attitudes
| towards the USA: how much of it was hope that they could
| work things out together to jointly oppress the rest of
| the world; how much of it was biding time in a weakened
| state before they could mount a plausible defence against
| the USA.
|
| But it does seem probable that the prospect of being left
| without the possibility of firing nuclear weapons at the
| US while staging bases are set up ever close to Russia
| would be undesirable to Russia.
|
| Do not take from this that I am defending Russia's
| actions. I have no interest in either a US nor a Russian
| Imperium and think that the Ukranian right to manage
| their own affairs without being attacked is paramount.
| The same way that I believe that Venezuela and Iran have
| a right not to be attacked.
| adrian_b wrote:
| NATO did not move towards Russia by its own desire, as
| you imply.
|
| All the neighbors of Russia have always known that one
| must expect that Russia will invade them at the first
| opportunity, so they made efforts to join NATO as it was
| obvious that like Ukraine, they do not have enough
| resources to fight alone against Russia.
|
| Entering NATO was not easy for them, because the main
| NATO countries imposed a lot of conditions and the new
| NATO members had to actually unofficially pay their
| membership with billions of dollars in contracts awarded
| to companies from various old NATO members.
|
| The NATO membership was not a free gift and it was paid
| dearly precisely because the new members were those who
| wanted the NATO expansion, to be protected against the
| Russians.
|
| It was not the old NATO who desired the expansion towards
| Russia.
|
| Moreover, calling the new NATO members as "ex-Soviet
| satellite states" is an insult. They have never been
| satellite states by their own will.
|
| All the countries from the Eastern Europe are states who
| have been invaded by the Russians during WWII and where
| the Russians were able to install puppet governments and
| steal whatever they wanted as a consequence of the
| agreements between USA and Great Britain with Stalin.
|
| The states from Western Europe have paid their freedom
| from Hitler with little of their own money but mostly
| with what was not theirs to give, i.e. with the countries
| from Eastern Europe, which were given to the Russians.
| threeseed wrote:
| NATO is a defensive, voluntary organisation.
|
| This idea that it somehow coercing Eastern European
| countries to join is baseless and ridiculous.
| grey-area wrote:
| The gamble is that the west will back off and leave him
| in possession of Ukraine, as they did with Crimea. Then
| he can gradually extend control over other encircled
| states to the north of belarus. More counties to loot,
| more resources to share with his friends. Absolutely zero
| personal consequences for him.
|
| He's quite happy to sacrifice the lives and prosperity of
| millions of Russian people if necessary in pursuit of
| this plan. He's quite happy to preside over chaos and
| destruction and call it peace.
|
| Putin won't stop until he is stopped with force and he
| has very clearly stated his long term goals - the
| expansion of the Russian empire for his profit. He has
| not been subtle about this, the invasion was planned at
| least weeks ago and the signs were all there:
|
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30056419
| chrononaut wrote:
| > Then he can gradually extend control over other
| encircled states to the north of belarus.
|
| Except those countries are actually in NATO, so the
| circumstances will be quite different. Won't stop him
| from influencing pressure though.
| LoveMortuus wrote:
| Russia made a deal with Ukraine like 30 or 40 years ago
| that Ukraine wouldn't join EU or NATO.
|
| For unknown reasons Ukraine started to want to join EU
| and/or NATO.
|
| If Ukraine joins NATO then Russia would be basically
| surrounded by NATO forces.
|
| The biggest issue here is that USA has been placing
| rockets near the borders of Russia in NATO countries and
| these rockets just happen to face Russia. If Ukraine
| joined NATO, who's to say that USA wouldn't place rockets
| there's as well and thus have an incredibly huge reach
| into Russia.
|
| Don't get me wrong, I'm a pacifist, if I could I would
| remove all militaries, there's really no reason to have
| them, since I believe that with rational conversation you
| can solve any and all issues.
|
| But a fact is still a fact even if you don't like it...
|
| I've been waiting for ten years and am still waiting for
| my country to legalise marijuana.
|
| Everyone just needs to chill~
|
| Can't we just pass the joint around and be friends?
| Viliam1234 wrote:
| > For unknown reasons Ukraine started to want to join EU
| and/or NATO.
|
| Could it perhaps be related to the fact that they were
| promised neutrality (also by Russia) in exchange for
| giving up their nuclear weapons... and then Russia
| invaded Crimea anyway?
| mstade wrote:
| So I've heard this rocket argument for a long time, never
| been presented with verifiable sources but I've also
| though that it seems plausible that the US would and
| indeed have done this. So if we take this as fact, which
| I'm not saying I do, but if - wouldn't invading and
| annexing Ukraine basically inch Russia even closer to
| these missiles? I see Poland and Romania right there, and
| they are in fact NATO members are they not?
|
| Also, what strategic value does Ukraine have, that for
| instance the Baltic countries (also NATO members) do not?
| I'm not saying you're wrong, but I can't shake the
| feeling that the "Russia doesn't like NATO and Ukraine
| becoming a member is a bridge too far" argument feels
| more like a straw man than anything else.
|
| I'm probably just too dumb to get it, so if someone more
| enlightened would like to clarify why invading Ukraine
| helps the Russian anti NATO effort I'd be much obliged!
| toyg wrote:
| It really doesn't. The strategic value is in securing the
| coast for good (Crimea was still kinda exposed), clearing
| up the wild-west they themselves created around Donbass,
| and providing a new avenue for gas pipelines, effectively
| neutering any Ukrainian leverage over Russia forever and
| ever. The NATO-expansion argument is just propaganda, not
| even the Russians really believe it.
| mstade wrote:
| This makes much more sense, thank you!
| danans wrote:
| > I only see downsides to the invasion and no upside from
| the perspective of Russia.
|
| Not everything comes down to dollars and cents. The
| Russian president spelled out in his speech that he
| believes that Ukraine has always been a region of Russia,
| and never an independent state, and therefore he believes
| it has no right to an independent existence. The
| motivations are mostly in historical terms, even if there
| are economic gains for Russia in the end.
|
| Also, an authoritarian state like Russia using its
| military might to shut down a nascent democracy like
| Ukraine is a pretty powerful narrative for the pre-
| emininence of the former type of government over the
| latter. There has been quite a bit of solidarity on this
| subject between authoritarian governments like Russia and
| China in recent years.
| qqqwerty wrote:
| I think he is gambling that he can "Shock and Awe" his
| way across Ukraine in a few days with minimal casualties.
| And then quickly install a new government or declare
| Ukraine a Russian territory.
|
| This is probably why he gave such a strong warning
| against NATO intervention (re: veiled nuclear threat), he
| doesn't want anyone interfering with that initial push,
| which could then lead to a long drawn out conflict.
|
| And this is also probably why Trump, Tucker and other
| hard right leaders and factions are still parroting pro-
| Putin propaganda. If "Shock and Awe" works, then the
| "post-war" narrative is going to switch to something like
| "See that wasn't a big deal, the media was just
| scaremongering, the Ukrainian people did not want to
| fight, and prefer to be a part of Russia. Everyone needs
| to chill out and move on."
|
| This is not to say that I don't think Putin is crazy. But
| just trying to read between the lines, I think they think
| they can get away with this. After all they did invade
| Crimea with little pushback. On one hand, I hope Ukraine
| will pull through, but on the other hand, I do worry that
| the longer this draws out, the further we get away from
| Putin's playbook, and then more erratic he will be. But
| if this thing is over in a few days, watch for the right
| wing to start pushing for a quick return to normalization
| with Russia.
| jtbayly wrote:
| "the right wing" where?
| qqqwerty wrote:
| Pretty much everywhere[1]. "Far right" is more accurate
| than "right wing". But tldr, Putin and Russia have been
| building ties with far right and evangelical parties and
| groups across the west for the past decade or two.
|
| [1] https://www.jstor.org/stable/43555253
| k0k0r0 wrote:
| An example of this tie between far right and the putin-
| russian narrative seems to be the reporter Patrick
| Lancester on various social media sides, that reports the
| conflict from inside the "seperatist regions" but in
| english and for the western audience. I don't know
| whether he's been pushed, though. From the very few of
| his hundrets of videos I saw, I feel like he's genuinly
| believing what he's reporting. I don't know whether he is
| pushed, but I believe it's possible that he's getting
| supported. Even unbeknownst to himself through
| "crowdfunding".
| bayesianbot wrote:
| It's surprisingly common take in these times. Climate
| change? Fearmongering. Covid? Who's going to be scared of
| the flu? And obviously Putin's danger is made up by
| media, at least until today.
|
| I don't think the accuracy rate for these predictions
| will be too good but plenty of people seem to think
| otherwise.
| kodah wrote:
| To me, fearmongering is something specific. People
| fearmonger about climate change when they act like
| _nothing_ can be done or that no action will be good
| enough. It 's a form of nihilism. COVID, same deal -
| people who spent months trying to use shaming and
| guilting of people, at the expense of those who got sick
| who weren't being reckless/antivax/whatever are
| fearmongerers. Those who are _just_ concerned and aren 't
| acting as a mouthpiece - very different. Let's not do a
| 180 on the social acceptability of being an asshole;
| there are upper and lower bounds to be observed.
| tomp wrote:
| Climate change is real as is COVID, but the _"
| fearmongering"_ part is, that the people who are telling
| _you_ to take it seriously (politicians, top 1%,
| celebrities) are _not taking it seriously themselves_
| (partying without masks, flying private jets to Davos,
| ...).
|
| Therefore, while climate change and COVID might be real,
| most of the _proposed solutions_ are completely fake.
| Tainnor wrote:
| The West has mostly lived in peace and prosperity since
| 1945. It is hard to come to terms with the fact that this
| is not a natural state of events. I think this has led to
| a certain sort of hubris, that everything will turn out
| well and we don't have to make the hard decisions.
|
| But plagues and pandemics were a thing in the past. So
| were wars. And man-made ecological disasters.
| jacquesm wrote:
| Ukraine has not lived in peace and prosperity since 1945.
| Karrot_Kream wrote:
| Ukraine is not the West. Outside the West, everything has
| been business as usual.
| baq wrote:
| weak men, hard times, etc.
| kofejnik wrote:
| I've been begging my father to leave for the past week or
| so (and he has plenty of options in Europe and US), he was
| sure it's overblown
| Grim-444 wrote:
| It's definitely an interesting place where we're at. I
| personally no longer believe anything mass media says, I
| lost all faith in them a number of years ago. They no
| longer have the ability to influence me, whether for better
| or for worse.
|
| I think I'm justified in having these beliefs, and some
| portion of people might agree with me, while another
| portion might call me an idiot, but the reality is that no
| matter how objectively "right" or "wrong" I am in having
| these beliefs, the fact still stands that the end result is
| I no longer believe a single thing mass media says. If they
| ever do have a legitimate, "true" message they need me to
| receive, whether about Ukraine, or Covid, or whatever comes
| next, they no longer have any ability to influence my
| thoughts or actions.
|
| At this point I feel standard mass media has become so
| institutionalized, so corrupt, so completely politicized,
| that there's not even reform possible; the whole system has
| to be torn apart and replaced with some new system, before
| I'll even consider listening again.
| scrollaway wrote:
| We live in Belgium, so it's not Biden she's been listening
| to.
|
| And to be frank, I "saw it coming", but not that much more
| than her. I was maybe 50/50 on an attack up until
| yesterday.
| rhino369 wrote:
| Even if you believed it, most people don't have the luxury
| of just uprooting and leaving until it gets bad.
|
| The government still isn't recommending fleeing. They want
| to stay and fight--not preside over refugee flows to
| Poland.
| richardfey wrote:
| Isn't this a war between brothers, after all? I want to
| hope that Russian soldiers will stop in front of the
| babushkas that obviously will never leave their houses,
| and show some compassion.
|
| That kind of humanity is of course much harder to
| experience when bombing or using drones, but I do not
| know if they're being used.
| caycep wrote:
| The NYT are running interviews w/ Russian citizens; w/
| the premise that a lot of them are perplexed as to why
| Putin ordered all of this, especially bc there are a lot
| of friends/relatives cross border.
| Mikeb85 wrote:
| The media is shit...
|
| So far Russia's done precision strikes and is simply
| rolling troops down roads. They won't encounter much
| resistance.
|
| A month (or more?) ago Zelenskiy said he's not sending
| Ukrainians to die. Today there's a lot of tough talk but
| there's no indication that Ukrainians will put up a fight
| and die en masse...
| sitting_duck wrote:
| According to a friend of mine who served as a flight
| engineer in the red army until somewhen in the nineties
| your post pretty much nails it.
|
| He called a former Ukrainian colleague today. According
| to him Russia obtained complete air souvereignty today.
| Ukrainian air defence was destroyed by sea-launched
| cruise missiles. Regular Ukrainian troops are not
| fighting. They leave their weapons behind and go away.
| High ranked russian staff promised not to chase them. To
| the majority of Ukrainian soldiers it just feels not
| right to shoot russians. So Russia covered a lot of
| ground today without firing much. Extremist formations on
| both sides and Russian mercenaries are the ones who do
| real fighting.
|
| This is consistent with the media insofar as you would
| usually expect: x killed troops in y, z troops caught,
| strategic installations damaged etc. You cannot get these
| reports if one side literally throws their guns away and
| goes home.
|
| In my friend's opinion Kiev will fall within the next few
| days if not tomorrow, the government will either flee or
| get captured and he joked there will be elections next
| week.
| cjbgkagh wrote:
| This exactly reflects my reading of the situation. I
| expect a Russian victory and hope it ends up relatively
| bloodless.
| baq wrote:
| The Ukrainian army was 400k strong and quite experienced.
| They're badly out-teched, especially in the air warfare
| department, but they will make it up with morale -
| they're defending their motherland.
|
| Russian army just does what it's been told. They're
| risking their lives to make a select few oligarchs a
| couple billion richer each. They don't want to be there.
|
| If this doesn't end within a week, it'll take years.
| Putin knows this, hence the offers of unconditional
| surrender.
| kevinventullo wrote:
| Al Jazeera reports dozens of casualties already:
| https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/24/russia-ukraine-
| inva...
| Mikeb85 wrote:
| Not to deminish that they're people but that's basically
| a weekend in Chicago... For a "full scale invasion" it's
| nothing and would indicate that there won't be much
| resistance.
| jhgb wrote:
| And I imagine that many places would rather opt out of
| becoming another Chicago. "This is nothing, people
| elsewhere have it worse" can be applied to a majority of
| the world's population. It's a useless argument.
| mikeyouse wrote:
| Gross.
| jacquesm wrote:
| If you don't want to diminish it, why do you diminish it?
|
| When Germany invaded NL for the first little bit there
| were not many casualties, those came later.
| Mikeb85 wrote:
| Because the media and everyone make it sound like it's
| about to be trench warfare and then urban warfare for
| years and the original parent I responded to implied
| soldiers would be gunning down babushkas...
|
| It's bad but it's obviously modern warfare and there
| likely won't be massive casualties because the Ukrainians
| aren't marching to die since the west already abandoned
| them.
|
| We were told Russia would be rolling tanks through the
| mud and fighting in trenches... Lots of propaganda.
|
| And an hour ago I watched Biden say sanctions are as bad
| as missiles SMH...
|
| Anyhow, the west abandoned Ukraine, I really doubt too
| many Ukrainians are eager to die for nothing.
| jacquesm wrote:
| > I really doubt too many Ukrainians are eager to die for
| nothing
|
| As in: you don't believe that Ukrainians will defend
| their country?
| Mikeb85 wrote:
| They've had how many regimes in the last century?
|
| No, they won't die for this.
| jacquesm wrote:
| They are already dying for this. Really, you make no
| sense to me at all.
| mikeyouse wrote:
| Just the most absurd line of argument from OP -- there
| are tons of videos of dead Ukrainian soldiers, burned out
| tanks/APCs, videos of indiscriminate rocket attacks on
| civilian centers, jets firing on residential buildings,
| cruise missiles striking civilian airports, at least one
| video of a child on a bicycle being hit with a mortar.
|
| Because the confirmed number of military KIA in the first
| hours of the war is only "several dozen" it's "a weekend
| in Chicago". Just incredibly ghoulish.
| jacquesm wrote:
| Precisely. It is revolting some of the sentiments on HN
| regarding this make me sick.
|
| To believe that Ukrainians will just let their country be
| run over is naive, what bugs me is that they are left to
| hang in the wind rather than that they receive help,
| that's the one thing that Putin really fears right now
| judging by his performance earlier, clearly aimed at
| persuading the public in the West that he would rain
| nuclear destruction on any country that decides to
| interfere.
| Mikeb85 wrote:
| So why isn't the west helping?
|
| And why do you expect Ukrainians to march to their deaths
| if your country and NATO won't help?
| jacquesm wrote:
| Because they are under the - in my opinion mistaken -
| belief that they will be able to deal with this using
| sanctions and external pressure alone. For some reason
| people seem to want to believe that the counterparty here
| is rational even if all of the evidence is against that.
|
| It is very much like the run up to World War II, when
| countries were making all kinds of deals with Hitler
| regarding neutrality because they believed that that
| would keep them out of the firing line, when in fact it
| enabled a war on a much larger scale than would have ever
| materialized if the allied sphere had immediately struck
| back. But even the United States only responded after
| Pearl Harbor. So, now we have a real problem, and the
| people of the Ukraine get to choose between abandoning
| their country, fighting back or living under the Russian
| jackboot for as long as it takes to plunder their
| country.
|
| This is not a good day, for anybody.
| toyg wrote:
| Well, I'll be frank: between nuclear holocaust and
| Ukraine going back to 1989, I pick the latter. Sucks to
| be Ukrainian right now, I know, but this is the time to
| be smart: France was overrun in a month too, and looked
| pretty pacific under occupation for a pretty long time,
| but eventually...
| southerntofu wrote:
| France was invaded because the liberals in France and UK
| refused to act against Hitler when he first invaded
| Poland and Austria, or when he and Mussolini supported
| Franco's coup d'etat in Spain in 1936, crushing a popular
| anarchist revolution and destroying any notion of hope
| across Europe for the decade to come.
|
| France/UK argued that helping elected governments (or
| people's militias) against their invader could ignite war
| spreading throughout Europe, so they would rather not
| irritate these angry dictators. Where did this strategy
| get us? It's hard to imagine just how different Europe
| (and probably the rest of the world, for better or for
| worse) would be today if the western powers had
| intervened at that time.
|
| It's also worth noting already at the time, social-
| liberal democracies from the USA to France were very
| unwelcoming of refugees from the nazi regime. Let's make
| sure to make them welcome no matter what our governments
| say, there's quite empty housing for everyone!
| jacquesm wrote:
| Ok, then what about Poland, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania
| and Estonia?
|
| Good enough to supply troops to NATO, not good enough to
| be defended when it matters? They should go back to 1989
| as well?
| Mikeb85 wrote:
| No ghoulish is the west who abandoned Ukraine... The West
| who beat war drums but won't defend a country being
| invaded.
|
| You say nice words and the "right thing" but the US
| hasn't done shit for Ukraine.
| toyg wrote:
| Some of their country, probably yes. All of it, including
| Donbass and the coast, probably not. After all, anybody
| who felt strongly about the Donbass was already there
| fighting. Ukrainians might well decide that they can live
| with a landlocked country, if the alternative is
| annihilation.
| jacquesm wrote:
| I know a couple of Ukrainians, I can't say they share
| your sentiment, to put it mildly.
| mikeyouse wrote:
| Russians are literally driving on Kyiv as we speak. 3
| million people live there and it's the seat of
| government. I'm not sure what to tell you if you think
| the Ukrainian military is going to abandon the fight.
| waffle_maniac wrote:
| > Today there's a lot of tough talk but there's no
| indication that Ukrainians will put up a fight and die en
| masse
|
| There's no evidence to the contrary. It has just begun.
| dijonman2 wrote:
| She is Ukrainian, why should she turn to America's
| president for information?
|
| He does not run the world.
| waffle_maniac wrote:
| Turn to Putin for information then. Same outcome.
| unclebucknasty wrote:
| > _why should she turn to America's president for
| information?_
|
| Because he has the World's most powerful intelligence
| agencies behind him?
|
| I know, children and propagandists will say "but, what
| about Iraq?" or some-such.
|
| But most serious people know that we generally hear about
| the relative few intelligence failures versus the
| multitudes of successes, and that the U.S. and its allies
| unquestionably wield the World's foremost intel services.
|
| And, here, we have the benefit of hindsight so we know
| unequivocally: our intelligence had it right and "she"
| would have done well to "turn to America's president for
| information".
| trasz wrote:
| It's not about the quality of intelligence - it's about
| the fact that US sources are known to lie when it
| benefits them, like they did with Iraq.
| [deleted]
| baq wrote:
| you can and should take US out of there. every single one
| does that.
| noduerme wrote:
| In this case, the western intelligence organizations were
| _spot on_ from several weeks ago. Biden played it as well
| as he could, reserving some further sanctions until this
| happened. I lived through the "Iraq has WMD" build-up and
| lies, and I thought they were lies then, before we went in
| and found out there were no WMD. This was good
| intelligence.
|
| Unfortunately, it does no one any good. All we can do at
| the moment is sanction Russia. But it does argue that we
| should be prepared for a nuclear response if they cross any
| line west, as long as Putin or some other madman is in
| power there.
| rayiner wrote:
| Using nuclear power if Putin crosses into Eastern Europe
| is complete madness. Eastern Europe is Russia's back
| yard, not ours.
| a-and wrote:
| This is certainly a ... reductionist view on geopolitics.
|
| Not only does this assume everyone in the thread is
| American, but also completely disregards the sovereignty
| and historic significance of many Eastern European
| countries.
| rayiner wrote:
| You mean realist. A country's sovereignty matters only as
| much as it's ability to defend it (or the willingness of
| someone else to do so out of their own interests).
|
| My own country only exists because India wanted to get
| back at Pakistan and helped us in our independence war.
| If they hadn't, we'd still be part of Pakistan--which
| would be what it would be.
| noduerme wrote:
| Nothing is Russia's back yard. Russia is the back yard.
| Russia is the graveyard of civilization, which has no
| claim to anything outside its miserable, ruthless
| territory.
|
| I would rather die than live in a shithole under Putin.
|
| The only madness would be _not_ using nuclear weapons
| against Putin if he crosses NATO lines. If he wants to
| die rich, he can live a long life. Otherwise let him die
| with his missiles, and his daughter who dances.
| polotics wrote:
| Word! The backyard of a sad Mafia of outdated old Russian
| men still stuck in the 20th century. As things stand my
| guess is this lasts about five years and ends with some
| nuclear exchange over Europe, assassinations across the
| West and East, and prude dove China slowwwwly crawling
| east, then south, north, west.
| slibhb wrote:
| Russia isn't going to cross NATO lines. Even if they do,
| NATO can defeat the Russians without nuclear weapons. I
| can't believe I have to say it but escalating to a
| nuclear war is a horrible idea.
| evan_ wrote:
| What's stopping Russia from introducing nuclear weapons
| in that case?
| Tainnor wrote:
| Probably MAD, as in the Cold War times.
|
| There's still the hope that nobody, not even an
| imperialist Putin, would be willing to risk the total
| destruction of his own country if not of human
| civilization over some territorial ambitions.
| aenis wrote:
| What if he is actually mad? Maybe terminally ill and not
| minding the scorched earth he'd leave behind?
|
| Luckily, this is Russia. There is always someone willing
| to stab the tzsar in the back when the time comes.
| ClumsyPilot wrote:
| "What if he is actually mad? Maybe terminally ill and not
| minding the scorched earth he'd leave behind?"
|
| So the solution of the OP is to be madder than him and
| start nuclear war first?
|
| I wish there were someone to replace the mad tzar, its
| long overdue
| dekhn wrote:
| I would say, so far Putin is proceeding rationally. He
| prepared his economy for this over many years, made
| strategic agreements with opponents of the West, and
| slowly built up a force which will now take a neighboring
| country using classic military techniques and massive
| imbalance of power.
| aenis wrote:
| Maybe the word that better describes it is 'systemically'
| or 'meticulously'. When I am in a mood to get drunk, I
| will prepare by buying the alcohol, invite friends,
| prepare the food, and then get myself piss drunk. Not
| sure if the world 'rational' fits ill conceived plans
| that are just well executed.
| stickfigure wrote:
| Even Putin wants to live. And he probably doesn't want to
| go down in history as another Hitler - even to his own
| people (the remaining ones, that is).
| codehalo wrote:
| The problem is Russia can't defeat NATO _without_ nuclear
| weapons.
| jacquesm wrote:
| > Eastern Europe is Russia's back yard, not ours.
|
| Wow, this must be a new low in these threads.
|
| No, Eastern Europe is Europe's 'backyard', and in fact it
| isn't a backyard. Romania, Poland, the Baltics, Hungary,
| Czechia, and so on are all solidly part of Europe.
| rayiner wrote:
| That's not how geopolitics works. I'm from Bangladesh--
| we're sure as heck India's back yard.
| jacquesm wrote:
| Where you are from is no excuse for what you wrote.
| [deleted]
| hammock wrote:
| What are you taking offense to, his idea that Russia and
| Eastern Europe are neighbors (which seems objectively
| true)? Or idea that the US should not involve itself in
| Eastern Europe-Russian disputes?
| jacquesm wrote:
| The term backyard implies a proprietary relationship,
| Ukraine isn't part of Russia's backyard and hasn't been
| for a long time now, and in the minds of the Ukrainians
| has never been part of Russia's backyard. The fact that
| the OP believes this to be so belies even the most basic
| insight into the reality for millions of people in former
| USSR countries who have in living memory what it means to
| be part of Russia's backyard and what the price to them
| would be if those days were to return.
|
| Calling Siberia or Kamchatka Russia's backyard might be
| accurate. But just like Canada isn't America's backyard
| neither is Ukraine - or any other former USSR vassal
| state - Russia's backyard.
|
| Neighbors is an entirely different term.
|
| As for Europe-Russian disputes, there is such a thing as
| NATO, which was good enough to be relied on after 9/11, I
| take it that it is still in force? If not can you point
| me to the news that I apparently missed?
| baq wrote:
| I live in an independent country thanks to NATO and EU.
| This place used to be Russia's back yard for 50 years.
| I'd like it to remain not-Russia's back yard,
| thankyouverymuch.
| symlinkk wrote:
| Ukraine is not part of NATO. It's not our job.
| Eldt wrote:
| "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for
| good men to do nothing"
| rayiner wrote:
| Countries tending to their own border security isn't a
| matter of "good" and "evil." Russia has far more basis
| for invading a rapidly arming country on its own border
| than the US did for invading Iraq or Afghanistan or
| Vietnam or Korea.
| [deleted]
| jacquesm wrote:
| Russia has no basis for this at all, hence all the
| pathetic excuses they've been showering the gullible
| with.
|
| And yes, it's evil, and no, it has nothing to do with
| their border security, that's a ridiculous suggestion, in
| the same vein, you would be ok with Russia annexing
| Poland, Lithuania, Finland or Estonia because they are
| armed and bordering Russia.
|
| As for the whataboutism, that wasn't the subject.
| astine wrote:
| "Russia has far more basis for invading a rapidly arming
| country on its own border than the US did for invading
| Iraq or Afghanistan or Vietnam or Korea."
|
| Ukraine's attempts to prepare against invasion do not
| justify said invasion.
| jacquesm wrote:
| What is so weird about these things: every time you read
| a history book you go like 'Oh, I recognize that', and
| then it plays out _exactly_ the same. This whole wave of
| isolationism and so called neutrality was an important
| factor in why WWII went as far as it did, if the world
| had stood united against Hitler /Germany from day #1 he
| would have had not nearly gone as far.
| baq wrote:
| if tanks show up in estonia, latvia and lithuania, will
| you say 'but they're too small and not worth much?'
|
| you don't have to be the head of intelligence to
| understand importance of ukraine, even if it isn't
| technically our job to defend it. Germany, UK and Italy
| have scored an own goal, as has US policy of russian
| reset. zero upside, heavy downside, bad trade.
| jacquesm wrote:
| Unfortunately, I'm afraid that that will be exactly the
| response. If that happens NATO is done for, but the fact
| that today Germany is one of the two countries that stop
| stronger sanctions against Russia is a strong sign that
| Putin will get away with this and more if we let him.
| baq wrote:
| Nothing I disagree with, Germany's reaction is pathetic.
| I'm also very concerned with Italy, didn't expect that. I
| hope they'll sort this out. Only thing left.
| toyg wrote:
| I reckon Biden made one big mistake, and it was to
| pressure the Germans to block NordStream2. This pre-dates
| recent events, the pipeline has been effectively ready
| for a pretty long time - it had long become clear the
| "technical" delays were anything but. It irritated the
| Russian kleptocrats, who live off Gazprom, making a
| military move over Ukraine much more likely.
| chasd00 wrote:
| Nuclear response means escalation to global nuclear war.
| That's every worst nightmare come true and puts
| civilization itself at risk.
|
| "I do not know with what weapons World War III will be
| fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and
| stones."
| mcguire wrote:
| My understanding at this point is that Russia has
| destroyed Ukraine's air defenses and has complete air
| superiority. Western forces could contest that, but won't
| because that could cause unintended escalation.
| Mikeb85 wrote:
| > Biden played it as well as he could
|
| Biden played it like shit. If they had never warned of
| war maybe Putin could have saved face.
|
| Instead Biden antogonized Russia, pledged support to
| Ukraine but didn't actually do anything. They sold out
| Ukraine. They wanted Ukrainians to do what, fight and
| die? What good was US intelligence? The US isn't doing
| shit...
| waffle_maniac wrote:
| Putin is trying to conquer a country because someone gave
| the heads up on his alleged plans and his feelings are
| hurt? People do not give Putin the credit he deserves and
| thus Putin plays them.
| darkarmani wrote:
| > Instead Biden antogonized Russia
|
| How exactly did he antagonize Russia?
|
| > The US isn't doing shit...
|
| What do you want the US to be doing? Are these actions
| feasible?
| Mikeb85 wrote:
| > What do you want the US to be doing? Are these actions
| feasible?
|
| Nothing because it's too late. But had the west given
| some concrete promises to Ukraine, I don't know at any
| time in the last few years, do you really think Russia
| would have invaded?
|
| > How exactly did he antagonize Russia?
|
| Really? He kept threatening sanctions, kept saying the
| invasion was happening... Even Zelenskiy told Biden to
| stop...
|
| Edit - now Biden is gloating about being right, talking
| about sanctions but not helping Ukraine
|
| Edit2 - Biden's press conference is so bad SMH... Hahaha
| Biden just said the sanctions will be just as bad as
| Russian missiles are to Ukraine. Clown world...
| evan_ wrote:
| > Nothing because it's too late. But had the west given
| some concrete promises to Ukraine, I don't know at any
| time in the last few years, do you really think Russia
| would have invaded?
|
| What specifically do you mean by "concrete promises"?
|
| The US has been sending military aid to Ukraine for
| years. Trump tried to withhold it but was eventually
| forced to send it anyway, it was a pretty big story:
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump%E2%80%93Ukraine_scand
| al#...
| Mikeb85 wrote:
| > What specifically do you mean by "concrete promises"?
|
| Actually admitting it to the EU or NATO. Actually
| pledging to defend it.
| evan_ wrote:
| saving face would've been withdrawing and saying "What's
| this dude talking about, dude's nuts, that was just
| routine training exercises, there's no war in Ba Sing
| Se." Instead he did exactly the thing Biden said he was
| going to do.
| stickfigure wrote:
| The west is - still - perfectly capable of intervening
| militarily without invoking nuclear weapons. Does it have
| the courage to do so? I don't know.
| robbedpeter wrote:
| Putin escalated to nuclear threats already. There's ww3
| potential now.
| stickfigure wrote:
| Of course he did. And he'll threaten the same thing the
| next time wants another piece of Europe. There's zero
| reason to believe him; he wants to live too. More
| importantly, the vast bureaucracy that supports him wants
| to live.
| jacquesm wrote:
| He's quite literally 'all in', which also means that he
| has nowhere to run now, Russia is from here on forward
| until Putin has been replaced, either from without or
| within a pariah state.
| Taylor_OD wrote:
| I'm not from the Ukraine but there has been news of
| something like this on a regular basis since 2014. It's
| kind of like South Korea/North Korea. On a near weekly
| basis there is big news about something bad potentially
| happening.
|
| It's hard to know what is serious and what isnt.
| azinman2 wrote:
| Except Putin has been negotiating with all the other
| western leaders to avoid this for the past couple weeks,
| and each one basically failed. Doesn't that seem
| different?
| fsloth wrote:
| No. Putin _pretended_ to negotiate while the attack plan
| moved on.
|
| All of those negotiations were a strategy for confusion,
| not solution.
|
| Putin never intended anything else than an attack.
| squarefoot wrote:
| Also it appears the metadata of the video of his speech
| just before the attack indicates it was actually shot 3
| days earlier, which illustrates even further that any
| resemblance of negotiations were just smoke and mirrors.
| baq wrote:
| exactly right. fx levels, bond sales, gold stockpiling,
| this was planned for years in advance, in anticipation of
| financial sanctions. he has a very, very assymetric
| risk/reward in this war.
| Broken_Hippo wrote:
| A disingenuous negotiation isn't actually a negotiation.
| Pretending it is to prove someone else wrong seems
| strange.
| jacquesm wrote:
| Those weren't negotiations, they were misdirection.
| azinman2 wrote:
| This isn't my point. My point is the GP said this has
| been forecasted for many years now so people stopped
| paying attention. However, these talks with other nations
| ARE new and were highly stressed as important to avoid
| war. That hasn't been the case for years now.
| jacquesm wrote:
| It was forecast for many years, the question many have is
| why it took as long as it did, I'm still not sure about
| that. I think it was maybe because Putin was counting on
| Trump winning re-election that he thought he had plenty
| of time.
|
| As for the talks:
|
| They were instrumental in getting away with the attacks,
| Putin played that for all it was worth, taking a leaf
| right out of Hitlers playbook.
| boredumb wrote:
| "I think it was maybe because Putin was counting on Trump
| winning re-election"
|
| This is the sort of rhetoric that is why no one believes
| the media, too much fear of sounding unhinged and
| delusional.
| jacquesm wrote:
| I don't see what is unhinged about it: it was a pretty
| closely contested election and it could have easily
| happened. Which would give Putin a chance to do this
| without any fear of interference. Brexit certainly helped
| him as well.
| tomp wrote:
| So you're still pushing the crazy conspiracy theory that
| Trump was Putin's puppet?
|
| The more likely explanation is, IMO, that Trump was just
| _unhinged_ enough to _actually do something_ , unlike the
| mellow Biden, who'll obviously just sit and wait (or,
| well, sleep).
| waffle_maniac wrote:
| What? Trump had an anti-war platform. That's why his
| response to Iran was so weak (and why he allowed them to
| return fire to save face).
|
| Also, he let Erdogan do whatever he wanted. And the
| Saudis. He didn't care!
|
| And even if you don't believe that, Trump is currently
| okay with the invasion.
| tomp wrote:
| Trump has an _anti-war, contain the bully_ platform.
|
| He introduced new sanctions for Iran and killed one of
| their highest ranking officers. Precision strikes instead
| of wasteful wars.
|
| Turkey and SA are US allies, Trump just continued that
| long-standing policy, as does Biden.
|
| > And even if you don't believe that, Trump is currently
| okay with the invasion.
|
| Quote? Trump said Putin's "pretty smart", which, judging
| by their progress towards Kyiv, and the lack of response
| by the West, well, you can't say it's not smart (at least
| in the short term... long term, remains to be seen).
| pc86 wrote:
| If Putin actually wanted to avoid invading a sovereign
| nation in violation of international law, all he had to
| do was... not invade a sovereign nation.
| temp8964 wrote:
| He was forced to invade Ukraine because he didn't get
| what he wanted. /s
| waffle_maniac wrote:
| How is demanding the end of NATO via an outside party
| having veto control over membership "negotiating"?
|
| It's very obvious that his demands are impossible. Putin
| is really a master at playing people. It's kind of
| shocking people are _still_ falling for it.
| sonicggg wrote:
| There has been thousands of troops surrounding Ukraine
| since 2014? Has US intelligence been warning of an
| invasion since that year as well?
| toyg wrote:
| The belief that Russian mercenaries in the Donbass would
| be eventually relieved by conventional forces has been
| around since then, yes. Many were surprised by the fact
| that it was not happening, year after year. At some point
| the consensus in policy circles was that Putin must had
| decided to keep the area as a wild-west buffer.
|
| The recent deployment near the border wasn't the first,
| although it was definitely an order of magnitude bigger -
| there were, in fact, questions on whether the exaggerated
| scale was so brazen and disproportionate (and unbalanced
| - their Asian border is now pretty weak...) that it
| couldn't be anything more than posturing.
| Regular-Former wrote:
| They did military drills on the border every year:
|
| https://www.google.com/search?q=russian+military+drill+uk
| rai...
| jononor wrote:
| The problem is that for Ukrainians the threat has been near
| constant since 2014, 8 years now. So people have heard the
| "news" thousand times before that invasion could happen any
| day now, and it did not happen... Until today.
| ironcurtain wrote:
| You mean for Russians in Donbass region, right? There
| were 13 thousands civilians killed there over 8 years.
| foxfluff wrote:
| They didn't have 200k troops and tons of military gear
| amassed around their borders for 8 years. It's hard to
| believe anyone who's been paying attention to the buildup
| would've thought they're there just to chill out.
| spicybright wrote:
| It's true, but I tend to think humans are pretty bad at
| threat evaluation if the threat lasts for years and
| years.
|
| Kind of like the IT admin that doesn't check backup
| integrity often enough because there's never been a data
| loss issue in years.
| Dma54rhs wrote:
| It's not entirely true. Someone who lives in Eastern
| Europe these border drills and threats are normal and go
| back to 10 years and more. Obviously this time they were
| better equipped infrastructure wise that the western
| agencies clearly said they were but for an average
| citizen it was "the same as usual".
| TulliusCicero wrote:
| Even if that's true, Putin straight up announced he'd be
| sending troops into the two rebel controlled regions a
| few days ago. That's a pretty obvious sign that this time
| was different.
|
| Like, I get that the previous buildups could be dismissed
| as saber rattling and training exercises, but Putin
| literally announcing, "HEY I'M COMING IN, I'M SENDING IN
| TROOPS TO UKRAINE NOW", how do you dismiss that?
| frabbit wrote:
| Isn't this partially why armies are routinely sent out on
| "war games" or "joint manoeuvers?
|
| You're never sure whether the Chinese submarine is
| "exercising its rights to international waters" or is
| preparing for a strike; or the US-Swedish troops are just
| making friends with each other or getting ready to
| invade.
|
| That's totally apart from the obvious "sabre rattling"
| bit.
| vizzah wrote:
| One should have only listened to Putin's speech of
| recognizing DNR/LNR.
|
| He told "we will prosecute those responsible for the terract
| in Odessa!"
|
| This second it was crystal clear to me the invasion was
| planned and going to happen in a matter of days.
| billsmithwicks wrote:
| Christ, stay safe man! If you can go West then do.
| melomal wrote:
| Strong people with attitudes to match!
| pantsforbirds wrote:
| I hope you all are okay! I follow a blacksmithing shop that
| makes axes and woodworking tools out of Kharkiv and they
| haven't posted in quite a while. Has me worried for everyone
| out there
| mcguire wrote:
| Why are you still there?
|
| 1. Keep your passport on you at all times. It's your best
| protection against official soldiers (from every side),
| although it may not help against unofficial militias. Stay away
| from them.
|
| 2. Make sure your embassy knows where you are at all times. You
| are their problem.
|
| 3. If you can, make your way quickly and quietly out of
| Ukraine.
|
| 4. Avoid posting things like this publicly. It draws attention
| to you and puts the people around you in danger.
| mcguire wrote:
| Oh, and for the love of pete,
|
| 0. Do not panic.
| scrollaway wrote:
| Good tip on the embassy, but beyond that, you should know
| "getting out" isn't exactly easy right now. There are no
| flights, a curfew is in place in several cities, all trains
| and buses are fully booked. If they don't have a car,
| repatriating any time soon is probably beyond the realm of
| their possibilities, Canadian or not.
| sonicggg wrote:
| US intelligence has been warning of this invasion for weeks
| though. There was plenty of time to make your way out. Now
| it is a bit too late.
| vkou wrote:
| The problem with these warnings is that you have zero
| idea of whether or not they are honest, mildly
| exaggerated, or just political posturing.
|
| As of a few days ago, it was _quite_ clear that Russia
| would invade Donetsk and Lugansk. It was not at all clear
| whether an invasion of Kiev would actually take place, or
| if it was a fairy tale, just like Saddam 's WMDs.
| scrollaway wrote:
| This is not helpful.
| awb wrote:
| This isn't over. Governments may issue advice in the
| future that would be wise to heed.
|
| So far the info from the US government has been very
| accurate.
| arcbyte wrote:
| Truth is always helpful.
|
| But maybe they didn't want out.
| Tronno wrote:
| It's also possible to team up with friends who do have a
| car, or use social media to find a stranger who is making
| the same trip (and pay them).
| lpgauth wrote:
| Canadian embassy is closed in Ukraine, they have relocated
| to Poland.
| mcguire wrote:
| " _Canada temporarily suspends operations in Kyiv. Due to
| the rapidly deteriorating security situation, the
| Canadian Embassy in Ukraine has temporarily suspended its
| operations in Kyiv and moved to an office in Lviv.
| Canadians in need of consular assistance in Ukraine
| should contact Global Affairs Canada's 24 /7 Emergency
| Watch and Response Centre (EWRC) in Ottawa._" (https://ww
| w.canadainternational.gc.ca/ukraine/index.aspx)
|
| The EWRC is https://travel.gc.ca/assistance/emergency-
| assistance
|
| Oh, and here is the Canadians Abroad registration info:
| https://travel.gc.ca/travelling/registration
| jhatemyjob wrote:
| Biking will always be an option. If you are in decent shape
| you can travel over 100 miles in a day.
| scrollaway wrote:
| In the cold, with just a backpack for supplies? I'm in
| good shape and love biking, still wouldn't want to take
| that bet.
| jacquesm wrote:
| At least it is a bet. Is there anything that can be done
| to help?
| scrollaway wrote:
| Doesn't seem so :/ Personally I think their best bet is
| to wait and see how the situation evolves in the short
| term. Russia does not seem to want to hurt citizens. At
| least, not yet...
|
| Urgh, I hate this.
| jacquesm wrote:
| > I hate this.
|
| Quite. Russia is now a pariah, until Putin is gone they
| will not be able to live this down. I'm _really_
| disappointed that Italy and Germany block kicking them
| off Swift, that should have been the first response.
| scrollaway wrote:
| Same. Feeling extremely betrayed by Germany's response,
| as a European.
| awb wrote:
| By staying you're risking getting caught in cross fire.
| By biking 100M in the winter you're risking frostbite,
| dehydration, injury, etc.
|
| Neither is a death sentence. You just have to weigh your
| risks.
| tshaddox wrote:
| It's pretty cold there. I think you'd need to be very
| diligently prepared for such a journey and probably more
| than "in decent shape."
| osivertsson wrote:
| 100 miles (160 km) is a lot to bike.
|
| I'm in decent shape (probably top 10% of the population)
| and I did 114 km this summer in great weather on an old
| mountainbike with a slick rear tire on gravel roads. It
| took me about about 51/2 hours effective riding time.
|
| To go out biking winter-time 100+ km, in freezing temps
| or slightly above that, with high humidity and possibly
| rain/sleet/snow you better be well prepared. Especially
| if you don't know where you will end up and if that place
| will have water / heat / electricity.
| 8note wrote:
| If you hit a snowy road, you're walking a good portion of
| that unless you've got a bike that can handle it
| Fordec wrote:
| JimBlackwood wrote:
| Don't offend people like that. Everyone's entitled to their
| own opinion and views. They can also be wrong without having
| to be talked down to like that.
| darkarmani wrote:
| They didn't just have an opinion, they said it was
| nonsense.
| bena wrote:
| Ok. He was obviously wrong. He made a prediction about
| the future and was wrong.
|
| But to say because he was wrong this time, he "didn't
| have sufficient knowledge" is just kind of dumb itself.
|
| He's probably way more aware of what Ukrainians are
| feeling about the situation and their opinions on what's
| happening than we are. You can have a lot of knowledge,
| but still be wrong. Lambasting people and insulting them
| for the apparent sin of simply being wrong is the thing
| that's degraded and limited useful discourse.
| mobiclick wrote:
| Perhaps gp could have worded it a bit more kindly, but I
| think there is value in calling out people who espouse
| opinions without having sufficient knowledge to back it up.
| It's people like this who degrade and limit useful
| discourse.
|
| My heart goes out to op and everyone else who has been
| unfairly effected by this conflict.
| cphoover wrote:
| This person's family and friends are at risk of harm or
| death, and here you are concerned with scoring internet
| points on a forum. Nice...
| dionidium wrote:
| One might argue that _they_ were too interested in internet
| points on a forum and on maintaining an ideological
| position that was pretty obviously already untenable.
| brailsafe wrote:
| It's still a dumb position/argument to point a finger at
| someone who is now a target and say "see I told you so"
| probably from the other side of the world.
|
| It's like if your friend just had their bike stolen after
| someone suggested not to leave it there. What was a valid
| contribution turns into being a dick "Yes, ty for your
| useful contribution"
| Mikeb85 wrote:
| What have Americans done other than warn of war but not do
| anything? If anything they made war more likely by preventing
| Russia from saving face. Even Zelenskiy said as much.
|
| But the west didn't actually do anything... Why didn't they
| pledge any real support? What use was all the US'
| intelligence if in the end they just stand by?
|
| It really feels like the west wanted this in order to justify
| more sanctions and completely sold out Ukraine.
|
| Edit - on further thought, it feels like the US wants
| Ukrainians to fight and die. Really though, what use is the
| US?
| darkarmani wrote:
| > Really though, what use is the US?
|
| What? Do you want the US interfering with your country? How
| many years did you have to create closer ties to the US
| before now? Why would the US want Ukrainians to die and why
| would they want Americans to die?
| Mikeb85 wrote:
| >Do you want the US interfering with your country?
|
| Not in Ukraine, only of Ukrainian descent.
|
| The US has already been interfering... Orange Revolution,
| Maidan, beating the NATO war drums, etc... They
| "encouraged" Ukraine to leave Russia's sphere but kept
| dragging out real timelines and concrete promises.
|
| Right now, I'm watching Biden talk about "supporting"
| Ukraine while smiling and smirking. But nothing concrete.
| Really feels like the US wanted this just to sanction
| Russia. But Ukraine is being sacrificed...
| sasawpg wrote:
| As someone who lived through 4 years of war, my advice is to
| get out while you still can. As incredibly difficult as it is,
| it will only get more difficult to leave and it is unlikely to
| get any easier to stay. I have absolutely no knowledge of the
| current situation in Ukraine, I'm merely advising based on my
| own personal experience.
|
| To everyone questioning why Ukranian population haven't heeded
| the warnings from Biden/West and left already - I can only
| assume you have never been in a comparable circumstance. It is
| easy for me to suggest/advise people leave, but I know all too
| well that's easier to type on a keyboard than act on in real
| life.
| awb wrote:
| The only thing relatable might be natural disasters and
| you're right, despite warnings some get out and some stay.
| ecf wrote:
| known wrote:
| noduerme wrote:
| yakshaving_jgt wrote:
| It is only very stupid people who believe their enemies are
| stupid.
| noduerme wrote:
| yakshaving_jgt wrote:
| Sorry, my home was struck by Russian military this morning
| and I've had to flee, so I'm in no mood for your levity.
| noduerme wrote:
| I didn't mean to be light about it. I'm sorry. If I said
| what I really think, I would be banned here. It's a
| catastrophe that makes me furious. My grandparents are
| from Ukraine and my grandfather was almost killed for his
| views about Russia. I grew up in LA around the Russian
| mob so I have some understanding of how those thugs
| think. I wish I could say what I really want to say.
| g45ylkjlk45y wrote:
| [deleted]
| ryanmarsh wrote:
| Internet doing the work of FO's everywhere
| kroltan wrote:
| Off topic, but what is that circular border in south Kazakhstan?
| Map bug, or a mathematically inclined contested territory? I
| don't see it in Google Maps.
| kingofpandora wrote:
| Baikonur.
| burmanm wrote:
| It's Baikonur. Rented to Russia, and as you see from the map..
| it's quite big area for a space port.
| kgeist wrote:
| I am from Russia and I've been shaking for whole day for what
| Putin is doing. I couldn't even get myself to go to work today.
| I'm in complete shock. It's like one day waking up in Third
| Reich.
| izietto wrote:
| What are the news about the conflict there? What are the
| reasons told by the media? It may be interesting having a
| direct source of the attacker news
| kgeist wrote:
| Innocent Russia protecting East Ukraine from Nazis in Kiev.
| It's so surreal.
| exdsq wrote:
| Gotta protect East Ukraine from the Nazi-devout Jewish
| leader!
|
| In all seriousness I do feel for you. Protesting against
| this will do little and get you in trouble so you're
| basically forced to watch. You'll need to accept these are
| things out of your control for your own mental health.
| Hopefully diplomatic efforts resolve it quickly.
| skywal_l wrote:
| That map is not up to date. They are already shelling Dnipro.
| xfitm3 wrote:
| Where do you get your information?
| sillysaurusx wrote:
| I've been collecting sources in this thread:
| https://twitter.com/theshawwn/status/1496761074258952193
|
| Currently I've been watching four Telegram groups. Most are
| Russian propaganda / pro-war. But I still find it interesting
| to see everything.
|
| - https://t.me/s/uniannet
|
| - https://t.me/s/h_saltovka
|
| - https://t.me/s/istorijaoruzija
|
| - https://t.me/s/ukrpravda_news
|
| And https://meduza.io/en/live/2022/02/24/invasion is also
| good.
|
| (I use Chrome's auto-translate feature. Right click ->
| Translate to English. The Telegram app is actually less
| useful than the web viewer because of this.)
| bryan_w wrote:
| Now the recent telegram "advertising campaigns" make sense.
| I was wondering why there was so much effort to promote it
| over signal
| foxfluff wrote:
| https://nitter.net/TadeuszGiczan
| throwawaybutwhy wrote:
| Liveuamap.com is much more current, this map is hopeless.
|
| Start with watching actual TikTok clips.
|
| 0/ https://twitter.com/ELINTNews
|
| 1/ https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet
| skywal_l wrote:
| https://www.standard.co.uk/video/international-
| news/resident...
| ck2 wrote:
| You know a country is failing when the "leader" declares war for
| "reasons" to distract everyone from the society collapse
| otherwise. 100% like North Korea but with real dangerous power.
| Also handily reduces population of your own country to support.
|
| So many innocent people are going to die for absolutely no reason
| at all, imagine if US tried to take over Cuba or some other
| coastal island.
|
| At least we now know what's going to happen to China when they
| take over Taiwan, lots of "sanctions" but no action because who
| is going to stop them and cut off all their manufacturing/supply?
|
| With Russia there is nothing they have but natural gas and still
| nothing can be done except throw more bodies on the fire which
| won't happen.
|
| Speaking of which, why wouldn't China just take Taiwan right now?
| World doesn't seem to handle multiple problems at once very well
| and they also need a "distraction" from covid and economy
| problems.
| MauranKilom wrote:
| > imagine if US tried to take over Cuba or some other coastal
| island.
|
| Not like they haven't tried:
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Pigs_Invasion
| belltaco wrote:
| I think China is more long term calculation than short
| emotional like Putin. Hopefully.
| ck2 wrote:
| I don't think hope is going to be enough.
|
| https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-reports-
| ni...
|
| It's a perfect time for distraction. I almost expect North
| Korea to do something stupid too.
| adamhp wrote:
| > imagine if US tried to take over Cuba or some other coastal
| island.
|
| I think it'd be a bit more like the US trying to take over
| Canada, but sure.
| ck2 wrote:
| I had to check but wow I always thought Ukraine was size of
| Florida, apparently it is the size of Texas (and larger than
| California)
| yakshaving_jgt wrote:
| This map is waaaaay out of date.
|
| There have been attacks all over the country today.
|
| Explosions in Odessa, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk,
| Mariupol, and more.
|
| Fucking everywhere.
|
| My friends and loved ones woke up to explosions.
|
| My employees woke up to explosions.
|
| Many can't leave because the roads are massively congested. Cash
| machines have stopped operating. The shops are running out of
| food.
|
| There are no flights. None. All the airports are under missile
| fire.
|
| They've raised the Russian flag over buildings.
|
| This is all out war.
|
| Evidently, sanctions do jack shit.
|
| ---
|
| You will all see videos of this, and so will your children's
| children.
|
| Here's one for a start.
|
| https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1496805801628995587
|
| eto prosto pizdets.
| Markoff wrote:
| Why should my children see any videos of fighting in Ukraine?
| yakshaving_jgt wrote:
| Because this is now a major world historical event.
|
| Obviously.
| Markoff wrote:
| baq wrote:
| meanwhile we here in Poland have major 1939 vibes and not
| in a good way: treacherous invasion from the east while
| the west sits there and debates.
| [deleted]
| lm28469 wrote:
| > while the west sits there and debates.
|
| What's the west supposed to do ? Send NATO forces and
| start ww3 / a nuclear war ?
| baq wrote:
| i agree. time to act was in 2008, 2014, 2015-16;
| basically until 2021.
|
| same as 1930s. business as usual, protect our investments
| and companies and suddenly oh noes he has tanks at their
| borders, too bad, but he won't come for us, right?
| right...?
| ogogmad wrote:
| The invasion of Poland by Hitler was not the UK and
| France's "problem" either.
|
| Assume the worst case with Putin. From Ukraine, Putin
| might attempt to annex* all other countries that belonged
| to the former Russian empire. In his recent speech, Putin
| lamented Russia's loss of the territory it had in 1916.
| He considers the whole former Russian empire to be his
| birthright. The man is extremely calculating, ambitious,
| and doesn't blunder easily. Look ahead.
|
| * - Or establish a "hegemony", as opposed to a classic
| empire.
| adrian_b wrote:
| The invasion of Poland by Hitler actually was the UK and
| France's "problem", because they were bound by treaties
| to help Poland, exactly like the NATO countries are today
| bound by a treaty.
|
| That is why UK and France were forced to declare war
| against Germany.
|
| Unfortunately for them, after declaring war they did
| nothing, hoping for some miraculous solution without
| actual war.
|
| Their inaction allowed the splitting of Poland between
| Germany and the Soviet Union and then Hitler had plenty
| of time to prepare for the attack against France.
| yakshaving_jgt wrote:
| Callous words, written from the comfort of your armchair,
| behind the protection of your keyboard.
| jazzyjackson wrote:
| if your kids are on tiktok they will see footage from
| this war, turning on the news is not necessary
| brimble wrote:
| American kids rarely learn about most of the dozens of
| conflicts that have taken place since WWII, including the
| ones the US was involved in. Unless this gets a lot bigger,
| it's not gonna be taught in the US, except university-level
| courses. Everything post-Vietnam is a blur, if it's covered
| at all.
|
| Of course, kids alive now who pay attention to the news
| will see it. And future kids who are history or politics
| nerds might learn of it on their own.
| ciphol wrote:
| Really? Fall of the Soviet Union, 9/11, Iraq and
| Afghanistan wars are only a blur if covered at all? I
| don't think so.
| staticman2 wrote:
| From what I recall in American history class there's very
| little on post ww2 conflict. But I graduated high school
| in 2000.
|
| I think there's little on modern conflict because recent
| conflict is more likely to be considered political and
| therefore controversial. It's true that there are parts
| of the nation where a textbook's take on the civil war
| might be controversial- but I think, where I grew up at
| least, you could teach up to WW2 without offending a
| parent's political sensibility.
| Nitrolo wrote:
| I can't speak for American schools, but in Germany we
| were taught little of what happened after 1945, so I
| wouldn't be surprised if the situation in the US would be
| similar. It's a shame, I would have loved to learn more
| about why the world is the way it is today.
| spogbiper wrote:
| > in Germany we were taught little of what happened after
| 1945
|
| I'd have to guess that has something to do with.. how
| things went for Germany in 1945? In my US public
| education we had a series of courses that covered
| "recent" history as in the last 20 years or so and
| another about current events.
| brimble wrote:
| > American kids rarely learn about _most of_ the dozens
| of conflicts that have taken place since WWII, including
| the ones the US was involved in.
|
| Added some emphasis.
|
| Granted I graduated about 18 years ago, but my
| experience, and one shared by everyone I've talked to
| about it, including those who went to school in other
| states, was that our time in k-12 history classes were
| spent about like this (numbers ballparked but basically
| correct):
|
| 20% Early civilizations (largely "cradle of civilization"
| focuses, rarely going past the Greeks and not covering
| any of that remotely thoroughly).
|
| 25% The "Age of Exploration" in Europe and early American
| (as in, the continents) colonial history.
|
| 40% US history from about 1760-1900
|
| 15% Everything else. Probably half of our education of
| post-WWII material concerned the Civil Rights Movement,
| but it was very poorly contextualized and more of a
| "greatest hits" approach (as with most of the rest,
| really). World history post-WWII was hardly covered at
| all.
|
| At the pace those classes move, there's hardly time to
| cover anything but the basics, and that only by leaving
| out huge swaths of time.
|
| I only went into college with _any_ significant grasp on
| history thanks to personal interest. It 'd be entirely
| possible to have passed every grade k-12 with a perfect
| 4.0 and have huge blanks in one's historical knowledge.
| Most of the rest was presented with so little analysis
| and context that it was pretty useless (again, at the
| snail's pace those classes move, and with limited ability
| to push work on kids outside of class [especially, these
| days, for anything that's not math or reading] there's
| simply no way to cover very much in the first place, and
| none of it well)
|
| A bunch of factors contribute to this, including:
|
| 1) You can only really push history _so_ fast on kids
| under a certain age (go low enough and reading ability
| becomes a factor, plus they start with _no_ context for
| _any_ of this, and bootstrapping up to the point they can
| really appreciate what 's going on takes a bunch of
| time). Most kids attend at least 13 total years of school
| by the time they graduate from high school, but they're
| only really receptive to a good history education for, at
| most, half that time--before that you're just trying to
| get them the building blocks to be able to understand
| stuff later, and often that doesn't even happen. This
| differential-ability-at-different-ages thing is why a
| curriculum will often repeat coverage of history material
| in multiple years.
|
| 2) We used to focus more narrowly on European history &
| heritage (and, broadly, the "Western" heritage of Rome
| and, by way of Rome, Greece), and put that stuff directly
| into things like the reading curriculum. It's no longer
| acceptable to have such a narrow focus and literature
| reading plans have shifted far away from that, leaving
| history classes to largely stand alone while the scope of
| what they're _supposed to_ try to cover has only grown.
| On top of that, history classes are often less well-
| resourced than others (math and English classes,
| especially), notorious (especially at the high school
| level, where more serious history _could_ be taught) as a
| haven for teachers who are mostly in the career to coach
| sports, likely to receive pushback from parents and admin
| if homework or reading load creeps above the bare minimum
| (that time is needed for math and English--if every
| subject gave out homework like those do, kids wouldn 't
| have time to sleep), and constantly at risk of angering
| parents with facts (let alone even the tamest and most
| uncontroversial of analysis). Everything's set up for it
| to be neglected, and it is.
| andrewshadura wrote:
| Well said, pizdets it is.
| Cthulhu_ wrote:
| > Evidently, sanctions do jack shit.
|
| The THREAT of sanctions hasn't had the desired effect, and if
| they are enacted, they will take a while before their effect
| can be felt by the people involved - weeks, months, I don't
| know. And if they maintain a good relationship with China they
| may be able to avoid it entirely - although China may then risk
| its relationship with the rest of the world, if it's found out
| they're funneling money to Russia.
| cryptonector wrote:
| There have been sanctions on Russia since 2016, and they got
| harder in 2017. The marginal value of additional sanctions is
| now greatly reduced. In retrospect, imposing sanctions in
| 2016 and 2017 was a bad idea.
| humanwhosits wrote:
| Can always impose more isolation, this isn't anything near
| a full economic blockade yet
| cryptonector wrote:
| In fact, we don't seem to be willing to impose more
| isolation. We've imposed as much as we could without
| getting hurt ourselves too much. Now all options are
| painful, so also not likely. Also, every additional turn
| of the screws increases the risk of wider war. So, yeah,
| I think it was a mistake to impose such severe sanctions
| for so long over so little, especially with the court
| filings from special prosecutor Durham.
| bduerst wrote:
| >In retrospect, imposing sanctions in 2016 and 2017 was a
| bad idea.
|
| Why?
|
| Russia's response to the global Magnitsky Legislation shows
| that hitting the power structure in their oligarchs' assets
| works.
| cryptonector wrote:
| And what did that do to stop their invading Ukraine?
| Nothing. Nothing at all. That means those sanctions
| didn't work no matter how much they looked like they were
| working.
| bduerst wrote:
| The Magnitsky legislation was a global sanctions response
| to human rights violations in Russia[1], not the Russian
| occupation of Crimea.
|
| The point is that they are a prime example of how
| economic sanctions are effective, especially against
| Russia. If anything, there should have been the threat of
| more sanctions for invading, and now with countries like
| Germany pulling out of energy deals and other action, we
| have only to see how it plays out.
|
| [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnitsky_legislation
| cryptonector wrote:
| How on Earth can you say with a straight face that they
| are effective given what's happened now?!
|
| I mean really, that's just gaslighting now.
| bduerst wrote:
| Then help me understand how my comment is gaslighting? Do
| you mean wikipedia is wrong?
|
| Or maybe you can finally answer why sanctions made things
| worse?
| yakshaving_jgt wrote:
| What are you suggesting? That I should be patient and trust
| the system?
|
| The system has failed. People are dying.
|
| This is our Hitler.
|
| Diplomacy was never an option.
|
| Putin recorded his declaration of war _before_ telling the
| world that diplomacy was still an option.
|
| He will _only_ be stopped by swift and decisive military
| action from the entirety of the free world.
|
| Anything short of that, and the blood of Ukrainians is on the
| hands of the Western world too.
| andreilys wrote:
| _He will only be stopped by swift and decisive military
| action from the entirety of the free world._
|
| Things get complicated when you go toe to toe with a
| nuclear superpower.
|
| What outcome do you expect when an authoritarian dictator
| with nukes is cornered and being bombarded by Western
| military from all sides?
| mint2 wrote:
| > Things get complicated when you go toe to toe with a
| nuclear superpower.
|
| Especially one ruled by a egotistical madman with a
| grudge
|
| That said, nato should have made huge show and noise
| about the Russian preparations around Ukraine directly
| causing nato to strengthen and beef up on the eastern
| boarder, and upped the troops on nato states massively.
| Things they are doing now. Those things should have been
| done before.
|
| The sanction timeline is okay, the nato beefing up an
| communication around it was late.
| Markoff wrote:
| Putin is just doing what NATO did in Serbia in 90s, I see
| no difference really, yet these NATO hypocrites get upset
| when someone else is doing it.
|
| Only countries which can speak out are those which were
| against the NATO bombing and don't recognize Kosovo,
| everyone else has blood on their hands even without
| Ukraine.
| 11101010001100 wrote:
| It should be noted that Russia, as a member of the UN
| security council, voted in support of international
| military intervention in Kosovo.
| favorited wrote:
| > Putin is just doing what NATO did in Serbia in 90s
|
| I didn't realize that he was intervening in an ongoing
| genocide
| disgruntledphd2 wrote:
| Ethnic cleansing. Genocide triggers a responsibility to
| intervene, under the UN charter.
|
| Aren't euphemisms wonderful?
| tablespoon wrote:
| > The THREAT of sanctions hasn't had the desired effect, and
| if they are enacted, they will take a while before their
| effect can be felt by the people involved - weeks, months, I
| don't know.
|
| Putin doesn't care about Russia economy the way you think he
| does:
| https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/lavrov-
| rus...:
|
| > Their intentions are different from ours too. Putin's goal
| is not a flourishing, peaceful, prosperous Russia, but a
| Russia where he remains in charge. Lavrov's goal is to
| maintain his position in the murky world of the Russian elite
| and, of course, to keep his money. What we mean by
| "interests" and what they mean by "interests" are not the
| same. When they listen to our diplomats, they don't hear
| anything that really threatens their position, their power,
| their personal fortunes.
|
| Putin's clique actually stands to _gain_ from sanctions. They
| control the Russian industry that would have to replace the
| imports.
|
| > And if they maintain a good relationship with China they
| may be able to avoid it entirely - although China may then
| risk its relationship with the rest of the world, if it's
| found out they're funneling money to Russia.
|
| They will:
| https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/world/europe/china-
| russia...
|
| > China on Wednesday criticized the expansion of economic
| sanctions against Russia, saying that they were unlikely to
| solve the Ukraine crisis and that they had the potential to
| harm average people as well as the interests of Beijing.
|
| It's also worth noting that China has been turning inward
| under Xi, so it's becoming increasingly willing to "risk its
| relationship[s] with the rest of the world."
| Tainnor wrote:
| Yes, but that's a dangerous game Putin is playing. If the
| economy continues tanking and he chooses to prolong a
| possibly unpopular war with casualties on the Russian side,
| he may lose his favour with the population.
|
| In a way, something similar seems to be happening with
| Erdogan in Turkey, whose popularity is starting to wane as
| an effect of the horrible economic situation.
|
| So, I think that long-term, sanctions may help, even though
| there is no guarantee (but when is there ever?).
| avastmick wrote:
| From a philosophical stance, this is history repeating for the
| same basic reason. 2022 AD and risk of war is still the same as
| it was in 1022 AD, or 22 AD. That reason is the accumulation of
| power (or by proxy, wealth) in a small set of individuals, or in
| this case one person. No realtime access to information changes
| this; it just makes the story of the horror unfold faster.
|
| Persisting with the concentration of power in individuals has
| shown throughout history to have dire consequence. We continue
| risking civilization on the mental health of those who already
| show significant issues with their obsessive clammer for power.
| The cult of the leader is toxic and, as far as I can see,
| illogical and lacking evidence for benefit.
|
| Where are the voices that seek a structured shift away from
| personality cult politics? The innovation we all need for the
| future are those voices.
| dilyevsky wrote:
| This is probably the reason in this case by where was that
| epicenter of power when the previous large war broke out in
| Europe - the Yugoslav Wars? If anything it was the absence of
| thereof
| pphysch wrote:
| Which single individual was responsible for the illegal
| invasion of Iraq in 2003?
| eyeeyesawayyy wrote:
| IMO, the vice president at the time.
|
| Cheney pulled a similar move of cynically planning and
| instigating a war of aggression, which is why many people
| consider him to be a war criminal even within the US.
|
| He wasn't really the head of a cult of personality, though.
| He just took advantage of the gullible people who surrounded
| him.
| pphysch wrote:
| Fair enough. But he was only VP for 2 years at time, hardly
| a dictator. How does the American political selection
| process need to be modified so that tyrants like Dick don't
| come into power?
| awb wrote:
| The Senate authorized the Iraq war. A far cry from one
| person.
| eyeeyesawayyy wrote:
| Yes, and Putin's cabinet authorized this war.
|
| It's always an oversimplification to attribute global
| events to an individual, but sometimes you can point to
| one person without whom an event could not have occurred.
| awb wrote:
| I think that's oversimplifying it. These national or
| global decisions are a chain of events.
|
| Here's how the Iraq war could have been prevented:
|
| * VP doesn't push for it
|
| * President (the Commander in Chief) doesn't give the
| orders to attack
|
| * Powell never gives the UN speech and resigns in protest
|
| * Senate doesn't vote to authorize war
|
| * Intelligence agencies push back on WMD accusations
|
| * Military officials push back on the strategic value of
| occupying Iraq and push for alternative measures
|
| * UK opposes the US war effort
|
| * Saddam allows UN inspectors back in with unrestricted
| access
|
| * If enough of the US was anti-war (it wasn't), threaten
| impeachment
|
| * etc.
|
| Sure, leader's drive initiatives, but there's still a
| chain of conditions and any break in the chain can cause
| the event to stop or change course (at least
| temporarily).
|
| I think it's important to remember that with a separation
| of powers, we aren't powerless to stop our leaders. These
| things only happen because we lack the will (or the
| desire) to stop it.
| hash872 wrote:
| >Where are the voices that seek a structured shift away from
| personality cult politics?
|
| Part of the issue is populism, which is as strong on HN as
| anywhere else. If I said 'hey the US & other countries should
| move away from a presidential system to a parliamentary one,
| because by making choosing the leader _less democratic_ it
| reduces the cult of personality ', I'll get a ton of downvotes.
| If I said 'the US shouldn't have primaries but instead let
| party elites choose their candidates [the way the rest of the
| world operates] to reduce the cult of personality', I'd get a
| ton of downvotes. If I said 'hey strong political parties are
| actually a good thing, and candidate-centered politics where
| candidates can appeal directly to the voters without party
| elites gatekeeping out demagogues is actually really bad'- I
| mean, same.
|
| The way to 'shift away from personality cult politics' is
| boring and technocratic, and we're in the middle of a populist,
| anti-elites age. Less direct elections, more appointed offices
| in our democracy, stronger parties, more gatekeeping & no
| primaries- it's exactly what we need, and it's exactly what the
| mood of the 2020s doesn't want right now
| Synaesthesia wrote:
| >Where are the voices that seek a structured shift away from
| personality cult politics? The innovation we all need for the
| future are those voices.
|
| You should look at what anarchists have been saying in their
| criticism of the state and capitalist system.
|
| https://theanarchistlibrary.org/library/the-anarchist-faq-ed...
| asdff wrote:
| >Where are the voices that seek a structured shift away from
| personality cult politics? The innovation we all need for the
| future are those voices.
|
| We probably slaughtered them off millions of years ago, when
| the cultist tribal leader our ancestors followed identified
| them as some 'other.' Tribalism is in our biology. We self
| domesticated ourselves and selected for features such as
| subscribing to a social hierarchy and being submissive to an
| authority. We did this by refusing to breed with people who
| didn't fit into our social order and also slaughtering those
| groups who stood in contrast to our social order.
| staticman2 wrote:
| I assume to an extent at least humans are wired to form a
| parasocial relationship with a tribal leader.
|
| It's not just a military thing- of I were to suggest Jeff Bezos
| has too much control over the working conditions of 1.5 million
| employees, many people will happily step in and say it would be
| a great tragedy if society stepped in and reduced his ability
| to order 1.5 million people around.
| nickysielicki wrote:
| No, this isn't all about an evil dictator named Putin being
| reckless. He's a horrible person but he's not a movie villain
| that's being evil to move the plot forward. This is the same
| sort of cartoonish understanding that existed after 9/11 that
| lead to millions of people believing that the Middle East hated
| us for our freedoms instead of hating us for occupying their
| countries and for historical wars.
|
| Much like Bin Laden and al Zawahiri told us their motivations
| and nobody listened for ten years, the Kremlin told us their
| motivations for this and nobody is listening:
| http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828
|
| Reaching for a simple explanation precludes real conversation
| about why this is happening.
| awb wrote:
| > or in this case one person
|
| I don't think that's true. Even autocrats need allies to stay
| in power and stay safe. They might obtain those through fear,
| bribes, etc., but they're still allies.
|
| Autocrats also help elevate those that agree with them so if
| you also think Russia should return to USSR (or Russian Empire)
| borders, you're going to get more power, more perks, etc.
|
| Just like any country there will always be nationalist leaders
| and a good portion of the population that supports them.
|
| Russia's leaders from Putin to Stalin (and probably before -- I
| don't know my Russian history that well), have always had
| territorial ambitions. See: Georgia, Crimea, Afghanistan,
| Poland, etc.
|
| Putin is the face right now, but I think it runs far deeper
| than just him.
| VictorPath wrote:
| dang wrote:
| Please don't take HN threads further into flamewar, or post
| snarkily on inflammatory topics. Those are not effective ways
| to make your case, and they poison the community (such as it
| is).
|
| Also, please don't edit your comments in a way that misleads
| readers after the fact--especially when the misleading thing is
| making other comments look bad because their original context
| is gone. That's not a nice thing to do.
|
| If you wouldn't mind reviewing
| https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the
| intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.
| [deleted]
| globalise83 wrote:
| I think you might be off by a whole continent.
| mtmail wrote:
| (VictorPath first talked about Syria, before editing it to
| Somalia. That's what globalise83 was referring to with
| different continent)
| VictorPath wrote:
| nightgarden wrote:
| "My troops are merely passing by"
| [deleted]
| [deleted]
| cphoover wrote:
| All of these tweets should be archived
| pugworthy wrote:
| UX feedback: Change from blue and green to something else a bit
| more color-blind friendly. I'm moderate blue/green and couldn't
| tell them apart without some careful examination.
| glandium wrote:
| I see a few in Dombas, a few in Crimea, but other than that
| nothing in Ukraine and the most recent from 2 days ago. Is it
| like that for anyone else?
| majso wrote:
| Yes, it seems to be not up to date
| raducu wrote:
| I was walking with my wife on a confined road when we saw people
| running and screaming "bear".
|
| I immediately noticed the danger because any bear would be
| comming down the sloap and there was verry little room to get out
| of the way.
|
| My wife took her phone and was trying to get closer.
|
| I had to drag her and she made fun of me.
|
| That is untill the mama bear with her cub came running down, then
| she started screaming and pannicking. I've never hit her in my
| life, but that moment I felt like punching her in the face,
| mostly to shut her up and make her move.
|
| She was not alone, a lot of people were doing the same.
|
| I was dumbstruck by how oblivious and heard-like people behave.
|
| I know I was blindsighted in the past by danger, mostly because
| of my young macho self.
|
| But my grandpa told me countless stories about survival and being
| prepared, and thankfully nowdays I try never to ignore my gut
| feeling.
|
| If your gut feeling tells you something's not right, LISTEN and
| ACT -- acting usually means move out of harms way, fast.
| dang wrote:
| We detached this subthread from
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30453577 since it went so
| offtopic.
| temp8964 wrote:
| jacquesm wrote:
| Bollocks. I've seen women be calm and composed and I've seen
| very large guys start blubbering incoherently.
| temp8964 wrote:
| Of course, I would expect police / military women react
| better than civilian men, but that's not meaningful
| comparison.
| jacquesm wrote:
| Nice strawman.
| raducu wrote:
| It could be, the funny thing is my wife is very easily
| startled -- countless times she screamed at me in our own
| house that I surprised her/scared her.
|
| She's parranoid someone would climb our apartment building
| and enter through our windows and wants us to install metal
| bars. I'm mostly against it because I feel perhaps we could
| use those as an escape in case of fire and because absolutely
| NO ONE in our vicinity has metal bars on their windows and
| that would signal we have something valuable inside.
|
| The same time, I have to double check she locked the front
| door, because she often forgets to do it.
| atdrummond wrote:
| Wanting to inflict violence on a significant other for this
| situation is not at all a healthy response.
| raducu wrote:
| Do you understand the difference between feeling/impulse and
| wanting to do something?
| danbruc wrote:
| This would probably benefit a lot from the possibility to scrub
| through a timeline and then only show all the markers within a
| few hours of the selected time so that one can actually see where
| there is ongoing activity.
| TheJoeMan wrote:
| I actually had an idea for a similar site, with that plus the
| ability to show with the markers which cardinal direction is
| being recorded.
| persedes wrote:
| Semi related, but wondering what role FAANG will play during the
| sanctions. A russian friend of mine told me google pay/apple pay
| were very common and preferred ways of payment in russia. Banning
| those in addition to exclusion from SWIFT would have pretty wide
| spread consequences for their citizens.
| Cthulhu_ wrote:
| Google / Apple Pay would no longer be allowed to operate there,
| like how iirc a lot of US businesses were not allowed to
| operate in Iran (I'm not sure what the current status of that
| is). People got in trouble for that, too.
| exhilaration wrote:
| A quick Google search indicates that Yandex has its own payment
| system: https://yoomoney.ru/?lang=en probably not equivalent to
| Apple Pay but it's something.
|
| This is probably a great opportunity for Russian and Chinese
| tech companies to gain market share as western companies are
| banned from operating in Russia.
| persedes wrote:
| Agreed, I was surprised how wide spread electronic payments
| were so there will be a big market up for grabs. Doing some
| quick googling, russia seems to be among the countries with
| the largest percentages of cashless transactions (~80%).
| What's interesting about his explanation was that the main
| motivation for people was trust, if I recall some places
| wouldn't even let you pay with cash because they did not
| trust it.
| mensetmanusman wrote:
| I hope they support a 10x upgrade to the Magnitsky act:
|
| https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnitsky_Act
|
| I wouldn't be surprised if future historians point to this
| thorn in putin's side as one of the main reasons for pissing
| him off enough to start a war.
|
| We have the technology to put a ton of pressure on the powerful
| elite trying to flex their way out of bearing responsibility
| for ruin they caused.
| tablespoon wrote:
| > We have the technology to put a ton of pressure on the
| powerful elite trying to flex their way out of bearing
| responsibility for ruin they caused.
|
| Not if they've made peace with giving up on jet-setting and
| simply being kings in their own country:
|
| https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/22/us/politics/russia-
| biden-...
|
| > And perhaps most notably, Mr. Putin and his closest aides
| and partners in Moscow might not suffer much themselves from
| sanctions, analysts say....
|
| > Some of the hard-line nationalist men around Mr. Putin were
| already on a Treasury Department sanctions list and accept
| that they and their families will no longer have substantial
| ties to the United States or Europe for the rest of their
| lives, said Alexander Gabuev, the chair of the Russia in the
| Asia-Pacific Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center.
|
| > "They are the powerful everybodies in today's Russia," he
| said. "There is a lot of posh richness. They're totally
| secluded. They're the kings, and that can be secured in
| Russia only."
|
| > Furthermore, because of their roles in state-owned
| enterprises and their business ties, they are "the very guys
| who are directly benefiting from the economy becoming more
| insulated, more detached from the outside world," he added.
| bjourne wrote:
| I fear that they will overreact and ban what they see as
| Russian propaganda. E.g
| https://thegrayzone.com/2022/02/15/russian-un-ambassador-us-...
| The Grayzone's youtube account may very well be suspended in
| the coming days. It is the totally wrong strategy for dealing
| with crackpots but the tech giants have not realized that yet.
| chasd00 wrote:
| if the tech companies "de-platform" Russia on their own does
| that count as a sanction? I wouldn't think so since it wouldn't
| have been ordered by a government. I wonder how Russia would
| react to that, cyber warfare against the company denying them
| service?
|
| edit: after thinking about it, the above seems like punishing
| the Russian people more than the Russian government which
| shouldn't be done IMO
| kgeist wrote:
| Banning ordinary Russians from using American services would
| remove the last place where Russians can express their
| opinions freely, playing into Putin's hands.
| skrtskrt wrote:
| Well sanctions generally affect the average citizen the
| hardest already.
|
| It's not like government or military leaders are the ones
| that can't get basic medical supplies or food in a
| sanctioned country.
| gutitout wrote:
| Why can't they spin up a blog? Also, as an American, I
| don't think those FAANG places are a safe space for
| "expressing opinions freely". The boys (bots) will come.
| kgeist wrote:
| An independent blog is easily banned. In fact, most of
| them are already. Platforms like Facebook host millions
| of pages and use https so it's not possible to ban
| individual pages, only the whole thing. And they've been
| hesitant to ban whole social networks because of possible
| discontent
| lghh wrote:
| It's a lot easier to DDOS a blog than it is to DDOS
| facebook.
| kgeist wrote:
| It's also likely that Putin will ban them himself as "symmetric
| response" against cutting SWIFT. Always at the expense of
| ordinary people.
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