[HN Gopher] Things Delta told the SEC about its SkyMiles program
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       Things Delta told the SEC about its SkyMiles program
        
       Author : donohoe
       Score  : 106 points
       Date   : 2022-02-12 16:07 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (viewfromthewing.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (viewfromthewing.com)
        
       | nikanj wrote:
       | Fortunately Delta can fix this with a single "Dear
       | members"-email. The skymiles-to-travel conversion rate is
       | completely arbitrary, and points can be devalued simply by
       | adjusting the amounts needed for various services
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | tasha0663 wrote:
         | We're pleased to announce these exciting new options for
         | redeeming your skymiles!
        
           | tommiegannert wrote:
           | Tangentially related: I just got a letter from my Visa card
           | supplier here in Switzerland saying they've changed the
           | Priority Pass (airport lounges) benefit to be unlimited.
           | Previously it was only four free visits per year. I thought
           | for sure they would make it worse when I opened it, but I
           | guess last year was a great time to re-negotiate group
           | discounts for travel.
        
             | mnadkvlb wrote:
             | If you dont mind, could you mention which vendor you use
             | for this card, i am using one from a local cantonal bank
             | which is good but doesnt have lounges in.
             | 
             | Thanks
        
             | wdb wrote:
             | I wish that happened here in the UK
        
             | Spooky23 wrote:
             | Maybe.
             | 
             | Remember everyone gets it, so the lounge may be full of
             | screaming kids and mooches pillaging napkins and ketchup!
        
               | cmurf wrote:
               | It already is, except they are adults. My experience in
               | United lounges the past year, barely worth free, not
               | worth paying for. Bad coffee, even the on demand espresso
               | capucino maker is crap. Lots of packaged food with signs
               | you have to eat it in the lounge, not intended to take
               | with you. Very little real food. Not a fan.
               | 
               | About the best benefit is if you need customer service to
               | find new flights, no line for that at least. Hilarious
               | you need a lounge pass to get no wait customer service
               | and clean restrooms.
        
               | chrisseaton wrote:
               | > My experience in United lounges the past year, barely
               | worth free, not worth paying for.
               | 
               | What United lounges have you been to?
               | 
               | The ones I've been to, for example Newark, have free
               | unlimited restaurant-quality table service, and unlimited
               | premium alcohol, including unlimited Champagne. To be
               | honest I usually look for longer layovers because it's a
               | bit of a treat in there. I love working on their glowing
               | mock-marble bar tops with unlimited iced Champs.
               | 
               | And that's just the basic business-class lounge. I once
               | had the fortune to be in United's Global First lounge in
               | SF, and that was something more again.
               | 
               | https://itstravelseason.com/airlines/united-polaris-
               | lounge-f...
        
               | gomox wrote:
               | The basic United lounge is called "United Club", it's a
               | much worse offering than the Polaris lounge you are
               | referring to.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | reincarnate0x14 wrote:
               | The customer service desk really is the only thing about
               | that worth it anymore for travel within the US, at least,
               | and "worth it" has been questionable. Lounge access at
               | some international airports is much, much nicer, but only
               | worth it if those are places you're flying.
               | 
               | The United affiliate lounges in much of east Asia make
               | United's own look even more embarrassing unless you're in
               | one of the international first/business ones. Although
               | when the Chicago Polaris lounge was new I got stuck there
               | on a super delayed flight and managed to kill a bottle of
               | Yamazaki whiskey almost by myself, which probably wasn't
               | great for my health and against policy but I slept like a
               | baby on the way to Germany when we finally departed.
        
               | servercobra wrote:
               | Or all the lounges stop accepting Priority Pass members
               | when you're actually traveling. The first year I had it
               | it was great, the second year, I traveled like 5 times
               | and every lounge wasn't allowing Priority Pass members.
        
             | MattGaiser wrote:
             | Credit card signup bonuses are also getting more aggressive
             | in general.
             | 
             | Many of them are at or near record all time highs.
        
               | konschubert wrote:
               | It's a race to the bottom with increasing fees and
               | awards. That business needs to be regulated or better
               | disrupted.
        
               | freemint wrote:
               | I don't see what you are talking about in Europe.
        
               | paulcole wrote:
               | What's the best one you know of right now?
        
               | csdvrx wrote:
               | The Capital One mastercard, $200 cash, no fee, minimal
               | payments for 1.5 year at 0% (ideal to take advantage of
               | inflation), various warranties thrown in for rentals etc
               | 
               | https://money.slickdeals.net/credit-score/capital-one-
               | quicks...
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | There's way better out there.
               | 
               | Citi's Premier just had a $800 signup bonus for a $95
               | annual fee. Easy money. Lots of these out there.
        
               | csdvrx wrote:
               | I could only find references to gift cards, not cash
               | bonus.
               | 
               | Funny thing is I considered citi recently, but figured
               | out it wasn't worth it. I ended up with capital one.
               | 
               | Now if you can recommend Visa cards with cash signup
               | bonus, I'm still looking for one :)
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | Citi's ThankYou points can be redeemed for statement
               | credit or bank deposit. With the right mix of cards it
               | comes back at one cent per point.
        
               | CrazedGeek wrote:
               | The Resy Amex Gold and Platinum offers are really nice:
               | https://resy.com/amex-offers . Same as the regular
               | midgrade Amex offers (between $750 and $2500 worth of
               | points, depending on card and what you value MR points
               | at), but also, 10x points on restaurants on the Platinum
               | for the first six months (up to $25k spend), and 20% back
               | on restaurants on the Gold for the first year (up to
               | $1250 spend).
        
               | alex_sikora wrote:
               | Depends on what you're looking for, cash back, hotel or
               | airline miles. Here's a great list of the best sign up
               | bonuses right now.
               | 
               | https://www.doctorofcredit.com/best-current-credit-card-
               | sign...
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | I think chase sapphire reserve was the peak at $1,500
               | bonus (assuming you were already going to travel) in
               | exchange a $450 fee, but that was offset by $100 global
               | entry credit and a few other benefits, so it was close to
               | $1,500 free for many people I know. I know my wife and I
               | got it, and it was basically $3k for free.
               | 
               | It was so costly that Chase had to list mention it
               | specifically in their 10-K and I believe all the other
               | banks looked and it and said no way are we spending that
               | much.
        
               | mym1990 wrote:
               | Are they more aggressive in a dollar converted reward or
               | just the # of points?
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | Number of points.
               | 
               | Since the best value is usually transferring points into
               | airlines, they let others be the bad guy.
        
               | MattGaiser wrote:
               | Dollar converted reward. I regularly get 12-15 new credit
               | cards a year and communities of people doing that
               | (churners) are well attuned to the tricks used to reduce
               | the real value.
        
           | easton wrote:
           | Or, as AA calls it "Hey! Want some magazines?"
        
         | tehwebguy wrote:
         | Not even necessary anymore, Delta no longer publishes an award
         | chart so they have flexibility to charge any point amount they
         | wish for any flight!
        
       | PascLeRasc wrote:
       | > 10% of flying is paid for with SkyMiles
       | 
       | I think I live under a rock. I've never paid for a flight with
       | miles and I'm one of the only people I know who uses credit cards
       | at all.
        
         | antiterra wrote:
         | The majority of the miles I've earned have been through my
         | employer flying me places, not my credit cards. I would guess a
         | good portion of flights come from those who fly frequently and
         | therefore have miles to fly on their own with.
        
       | random3 wrote:
       | Given the strategy that they won't be redeemed + infinite
       | lifetime and potentially some barriers to convert/transfer, that
       | liabiltiy will keep balooning. I wonder if they are assuming a
       | write-off.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | toomuchtodo wrote:
         | You devalue the currency like a central bank.
        
       | simonebrunozzi wrote:
       | The SEC should start suing and penalizing airlines for the scam
       | that airmiles is, before even getting started with crypto.
        
         | bushbaba wrote:
         | Scam? It's a business travel incentive to continue traveling on
         | the same airline even if it's more expensive.
        
       | kadabra9 wrote:
       | This is why I always, always tell people to burn and churn those
       | miles and points as they accrue them.
       | 
       | Airline and hotel partners will NEVER make miles more valuable,
       | they only get less valuable over time.
       | 
       | Miles and points don't earn interest. Use them.
        
         | dehrmann wrote:
         | I only use them for upgrades because I worry that, when
         | overbooked, airlines are more likely to bump people on cheap
         | tickets. I have no idea if this is true.
        
         | asiachick wrote:
         | I thought it was well known that free miles are a scam. You'll
         | end up flying the same airline just to get more miles when if
         | you just chose the best fare you'd save way more than what you
         | earn in miles. Even if you don't chose by fare, you also end up
         | limiting your options. You want to arrive at 5pm but the
         | airline you've signed up for only arrives at 9pm but you talk
         | yourself into it "for the miles" etc...
        
           | vanattab wrote:
           | Your error is assuming people care about spending more money.
           | Most people serious about collecting sky miles are spending
           | someone else's money to build up their personal miles
           | balance. And this is precisely what makes skylines so
           | valuable to airlines.
        
         | reaperducer wrote:
         | _Airline and hotel partners will NEVER make miles more
         | valuable_
         | 
         | I don't think "NEVER" is accurate. It's just very very very
         | very rare.
         | 
         | I looked up awards flights on the airline I have miles with at
         | the beginning of COVID, and it was offering crazy discounts
         | just to get people in seats. North America to Japan for
         | something like 10,000 points and ~$200 in fees.
        
       | supernova87a wrote:
       | Except, Delta (and every airline) can arbitrarily control the
       | redemption rate (speed) of their currency being used, and the
       | conversion rate. And have been devaluing that currency steadily
       | over the years. Don't hoard FF miles, it's a losing game.
        
         | sersi wrote:
         | Yup, and unfortunately with covid, it's very very difficult to
         | use miles :)
        
           | coolspot wrote:
           | You can stop mile inflation by redeeming them for dollar-
           | denominated delta gift cards. They never expire.
        
             | DesiLurker wrote:
             | yes but they control the conversion ratio to dollar gift
             | cards. what do you think happens when significant percent
             | of holders start demanding the giftcards?
             | 
             | miles are a losing game for consumer.
        
             | choeger wrote:
             | Airberlin issued Amazon gift cards back in the day. They
             | were essentially as good as cash. In an unrelated story,
             | airberlin went bankrupt shortly afterwards...
        
             | nostromo wrote:
             | The dollar is losing 8% a year of purchasing power at the
             | moment.
        
               | kube-system wrote:
               | It _already has_ devalued 8% (well, 7.5%). There aren 't
               | official numbers for what it is doing currently; it's an
               | observation of history, technically speaking. Most
               | economists believe this was the peak and that 2022 will
               | bring significant declines closer to the Fed's target.
               | And if not, the expectation is that the Fed will take
               | action.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | > Most economists believe this was the peak and that 2022
               | will bring significant declines closer to the Fed's
               | target. And if not, the expectation is that the Fed will
               | take action.
               | 
               | The Fed already started taking action to reel in QE, and
               | is pretty universally expected to hike rates in mid-March
               | (right about the time QE stops on the current schedule.)
               | The disagreements now seem to be about whether it is most
               | likely to be a quarter- or half-percentage-point hike.
               | 
               | Even if the drivers of inflation policy exogenous to
               | monetary policy remain at the same level, this should cut
               | inflation.
        
               | reaperducer wrote:
               | I wonder what the percentage loss was from previous
               | points devaluation.
               | 
               | If dollar purchasing power is down 8%, but the points
               | devaluation is 50%, then turning the points into coupons
               | makes a lot of sense.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | Rebelgecko wrote:
             | FWIW, I've typically gotten the best mileage redemptions by
             | redeeming for a partner airline's flight. They usually have
             | their own award charts that don't devalue at the same rate.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | oneoff786 wrote:
       | Probably fine. I would imagine most sky miles are accumulated by
       | business travelers not paying for it, and very sparsely used for
       | the occasional personal trip.
        
       | forrestthewoods wrote:
       | How many passenger miles does Delta per day / year?
        
         | Scoundreller wrote:
         | 74 billion per year in FY2020. Was approaching 250 billion/year
         | pre-covid:
         | 
         | https://www.statista.com/statistics/221076/revenue-of-passen...
        
       | hourislate wrote:
       | Wendover Productions has a video on how airlines are banks now.
       | Their Loyalty Programs are worth several times more than the
       | Airlines and flying is basically a secondary business for them.
       | 
       | How Airlines Quietly Became Banks
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggUduBmvQ_4
        
         | nexuist wrote:
         | Airlines have historically been cash poor. It's extremely
         | difficult to make an airline profitable, and demand fluctuates
         | wildly due to weather, oil prices, world conflicts, etc.
         | 
         | "If you want to be a millionaire, start with a billion dollars
         | and launch a new airline." - Richard Branson
        
         | brk wrote:
         | This is particularly obvious on American Airlines. EVERY flight
         | I took last year had the FA's telling how this one special
         | flight qualified for a very rare offer... to open a credit card
         | and get some base miles for free. I feel bad for them having to
         | hawk this stupid credit card constantly, though I bet they get
         | some kind of extra bonus for suckering people into signing up.
        
           | bombcar wrote:
           | The credit card bonus to the customer can be upwards of $400
           | or more - so it's clearly worth it to the credit card company
           | and they make it worth the airline's while also.
        
         | selimthegrim wrote:
         | How soon until this happens with Starbucks and gift cards?
        
           | PascLeRasc wrote:
           | Here you go: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mr039xnco-8
        
         | rplnt wrote:
         | edit at the bottom, my question has a simple answer: no
         | 
         | That seems like an interesting topic. Wasn't Wendower
         | Productions just reading Wikipedia articles over stock footage
         | and blueprint graphs? Or am I mistaking that with some other
         | channel(s)?
         | 
         | edit: Well that was easy to search for, it was Real Engineering
         | channel.
        
           | gabagool wrote:
           | Clearly my Google Fu isn't as strong as yours. Could you
           | share a link about Real Engineering?
        
           | kataklasm wrote:
           | Seems like you have an axe to grind here, care to elaborate a
           | bit?
        
       | tommiegannert wrote:
       | Numbers for context:
       | 
       | $30B revenue, $16B current assets in 2021.
       | 
       | $4.8B profit on $47B revenue in 2019.
        
         | smsm42 wrote:
         | So, we're talking about a debt of 20% of one-year revenue?
         | Substantial, but not a huge deal, and given the redemption
         | speed not too concerning. Comparing to a personal budget, it's
         | like buying a car with a loan - not even an expensive one, if
         | US medial salary is ~60K, then it'd be a 12K car. If I learned
         | somebody making 60K has a 12K car loan, I wouldn't be too
         | worried, if they can afford the payments. And this one is
         | basically negative interest, since they can devalue miles with
         | time (some even have expiration dates!)
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | forgingahead wrote:
       | This isn't unusual - maybe the quantum is (though I have no idea
       | if "$7.6B worth of travel" is large or small in whatever context
       | the article is trying to make), but airmiles are awarded now with
       | the expectation that the airline must fulfill them later. Maybe
       | 30k miles gets you a 1 way trip now, normally valued at $200. In
       | the future, they could devalue the miles and a 1 way trip costs
       | 35k miles.
       | 
       | Either way, they must be accounted for so yes it's normal to see
       | this on a balance sheet. Is it alarming if you're an investor?
       | Perhaps only if you think there will be a "run on miles" where
       | nobody buys tickets suddenly and they all use miles to fly
       | instead. But the airline will never allow that, plus these are
       | all magic tokens any way, so not sure what the relevance of this
       | in the article is.
        
         | nikanj wrote:
         | A run on the miles is easily stopped by a simple "I'm sorry
         | sir, but currently there are no award-redemption eligible seats
         | available for those dates"
        
         | smegma2 wrote:
         | Yeah, you could just as well say "the world owes Warren Buffett
         | 100B in goods and services". Yes, Delta owes it in a sense but
         | it's really just a statement of how many outstanding points
         | there are.
        
         | reincarnate0x14 wrote:
         | They already limit the number of point-only seat sales and
         | upgrades on most flights, my various United point schemes will
         | get me "upgrade waitlisted" on flights with 20 empty seats left
         | in first/business until sometimes the day of departure as they
         | try to get cash payments instead. Maybe it's better if you're
         | in the magical invite-only programs but even at 1K, their top
         | regular-people loyalty tier (which is something like 15000 USD
         | in flights each year) it's gotten pretty bad.
         | 
         | How many point-only seats they'll sell seems more variable but
         | I've seen the rates jump from like 35k miles to 75k miles for
         | the same seats for no apparent reason on flights.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | drpgq wrote:
       | I've always wanted someone to calculate inflation in frequent
       | flyer miles
        
         | ethbr0 wrote:
         | https://thepointsguy.com/guide/monthly-valuations/
        
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       (page generated 2022-02-12 23:02 UTC)