[HN Gopher] The Formation of IPv4 Address Markets (2021)
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       The Formation of IPv4 Address Markets (2021)
        
       Author : vermilingua
       Score  : 46 points
       Date   : 2022-02-03 11:49 UTC (2 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (circleid.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (circleid.com)
        
       | jrochkind1 wrote:
       | > This additional time also allowed the IETF enough time to do
       | what it does best, specifically avoiding making hard choices.
       | 
       | Zing!
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | ju-st wrote:
       | This is a great article (as expected considering the author). It
       | is a much more nuanced take on the whole IPv4 vs IPv6 topic than
       | the recurring heated discussions on HN.
        
       | ramshanker wrote:
       | Slightly tangent: Indian government has mandated all ISPs to
       | upgrade all customers as IPv6 compatible by 31st December 2022.
       | So India will be 100% IPv6 compatible by end of the year.
       | 
       | Once that happens, I wouldn't be surprised if IPv4 is deprecated
       | along with 2G.
        
         | throw0101a wrote:
         | "T-Mobile's path to IPv6 Only":
         | 
         | > _For the past 10 years [US] T-Mobile has worked towards
         | creating an IPv6 environment and we are now getting very close
         | to our goal. Stephan presents learning on how to successfully
         | enable IPv6-only using DNS64 with or without 464XLAT. He will
         | do a live demo of the different IP interfaces on an Android
         | handset. Finally, he will discuss and give some best practices
         | on how to handle DNS, applications, and websites that are
         | having issues with DNS64._
         | 
         | * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNMNglk_CvE
         | 
         | Apple mandated that all app in the iOS/mobile App Store had to
         | support working on IPv6-only networks:
         | 
         | * https://developer.apple.com/support/ipv6/
         | 
         | Perhaps they should to the same thing for the macOS App Store.
        
           | iqanq wrote:
           | >Apple mandated that all app in the iOS/mobile App Store had
           | to support working on IPv6-only networks:
           | 
           | 464XLAT is allowed, so ipv4-only services work fine.
        
             | zacwest wrote:
             | iPhones on T-Mobile do not use 464XLAT, they use native
             | IPv6 only. Some system frameworks like URLSession can do
             | the NAT64 translation of hard-coded IPv4 addresses but it
             | still goes over IPv6. In the video linked above:
             | https://youtu.be/nNMNglk_CvE?t=1651
        
               | iqanq wrote:
               | Precisely what I meant is that unless you use very low
               | level networking functions in your app, you will have no
               | problems with that requirement even if your server is
               | ipv4-only, as is my case.
        
       | polski-g wrote:
       | That Congress has not mandated IPv6 available to all ISPs in the
       | country is shocking.
        
         | seanw444 wrote:
         | Congress doesn't even know what an IP address is.
        
       | jl6 wrote:
       | This is the one market where I would be happy for the cryptobros
       | to move in and start hoarding. I'd almost forgive them for NFTs
       | if IPv4-hodling turned out to be the thing that finally catalyzes
       | the move to IPv6.
        
         | ozim wrote:
         | Unfortunately you cannot simply HODL IPv4 because authorities
         | can come over and take you blocks back if they are not used.
         | 
         | I can see an incentive to form a small time ISP as an
         | investment though but that is also quite a hands on investment
         | unlike NFT or some coins where you buy and keep.
        
           | jl6 wrote:
           | What counts as "not used"? If I set up some minimal websites
           | hosting one ape picture per IP address, is that used? Do the
           | registries have a concept of frivolous use?
        
             | zekica wrote:
             | It's counted as used if it is advertised via BGP.
        
             | ozim wrote:
             | I don't know.
             | 
             | But even setting one ape per IP address is still quite
             | hands on and involved investment, you have to know how to
             | do it or you have to hire and pay someone who knows how to
             | do it.
             | 
             | Then you still have some operation cost as you probably
             | cannot assign whole IP block to a single server and keeping
             | server running still costs money.
             | 
             | So I was only think about situation where you simply buy
             | like /24 block and keep it.
        
             | technothrasher wrote:
             | I've got a /24 that hasn't had any use at all since about
             | 1998, and in fact is registered to a company that no longer
             | exists, with me as the only point of contact. Nobody has
             | ever come for it. I wouldn't be overly upset if they did,
             | as I don't have any use for it, but I've never felt like
             | proactively giving it up either.
        
               | hansel_der wrote:
               | i feel like this is the prime example of why only around
               | 200mio ipv4 addresses are seen on the internet (out of
               | the possible 4b)
               | 
               | http://www.faqs.org/rfcs/rfc3194.html
        
           | throw0101a wrote:
           | > _Unfortunately you cannot simply HODL IPv4 because
           | authorities can come over and take you blocks back if they
           | are not used._
           | 
           | You can lease addresses:
           | 
           | * https://circleid.com/posts/20210608-leasing-vs-buying-
           | ipv4-a...
           | 
           | The addresses get allocated to Company A which then turns
           | around and allows Company B to use them for a monthly fee and
           | they become routable/pingable.
           | 
           | If someone doesn't have enough in their CapEx budget to buy a
           | block then they can put it into their OpEx.
        
             | ozim wrote:
             | But complexity of this investment is still far away from
             | "buy and hold" so cryptobros won't jump on that train.
        
               | ClumsyPilot wrote:
               | Still sinpler than credit default swaps, and CDOs, and
               | options on commodities, and we have so many people
               | investing in them without understanding
        
               | throw0101a wrote:
               | Perhaps someone can create an IPv4 ETF. :)
        
           | kloch wrote:
           | I'm not speaking for ARIN but their CEO John Curran told me
           | ARIN has _never_ revoked address resources for any reason
           | other than non-payment or fraud. As long as your original
           | application for the resources was made in good faith and you
           | continued to pay the registration fees, they would not take
           | them away even if you are not using them anymore. This seems
           | logical for functional IPv4 markets where the non-use /non-
           | need is explicit in any resource being offered for sale. The
           | registered organization does still need to be "in business"
           | (registered in good standing with the state corporation
           | commission or equivalent). If the entity is dissolved then
           | the resources automatically revert back to ARIN and it may be
           | difficult or impossible to sell to a third party.
           | 
           | It is important to keep ARIN updated with any organization
           | name changes, reorganization, or M&A actions as they happen.
           | Going back 10+ years to update those changes, especially if
           | there are several, can be extremely difficult. In large
           | companies the network folks that manage ARIN resources are
           | often not even be aware of those changes until they interact
           | with ARIN again. That has bitten me several times in my
           | career.
           | 
           | In the old days before IPv4 runout they could and would
           | refuse to issue _additional_ IP blocks if you did not show
           | sufficient utilization of your _most recent_ allocation. It
           | was also not unusual for them to reduce the allocation size
           | requested based on how fast you had utilized your most recent
           | block.
        
             | wmf wrote:
             | Hoarding IP addresses probably _is_ fraud because to get
             | IPs you have to swear that they will be put into use within
             | a year (IIRC). I don 't consider IP leasing to be hoarding
             | because the IPs are in use.
        
           | oarsinsync wrote:
           | > Unfortunately you cannot simply HODL IPv4 because
           | authorities can come over and take you blocks back if they
           | are not used.
           | 
           | Define "not used". I know several LIRs that have in excess of
           | /20s allocated to them, and do not advertise their ranges to
           | the (Internet) DFZ, but instead use them on private
           | interlinks between themselves and other third parties.
           | 
           | The only requirement to be given address space by an RIR is a
           | requirement for global uniqueness.
           | 
           | Just because you don't see it on the Internet (or any other
           | network you use), doesn't mean it's not in use.
           | 
           | IPv4 is knocking on death's door, and the value will drop
           | once the DoD gives (6 years) notice that they've migrated all
           | their services to IPv6, thus making 10? /8s available for
           | sale and:
           | 
           | 1. flooding the market
           | 
           | 2. proving that there's nothing left holding back to run an
           | ipv6-only network, resulting in wide scale migrations for
           | networks that haven't migrated yet.
        
           | phil21 wrote:
           | > Unfortunately you cannot simply HODL IPv4 because
           | authorities can come over and take you blocks back if they
           | are not used.
           | 
           | No longer true, depending on the RIR and their exact
           | policies. At least RIPE and ARIN see leasing blocks as proper
           | usage. The only thing you might run into a snag with would be
           | if you had zero customers leasing blocks within the region
           | the RIR is responsible for. For example, if you have a /19
           | assigned to ARIN right now and want to lease it to a European
           | entity announcing it from Europe, you might need to transfer
           | it to RIPE so the proper party gets paid membership dues.
           | 
           | It's certainly more hands on than holding equities (or
           | crypto), much like renting out a few apartments is more
           | effort than simply holding an REIT. Quite doable for anyone
           | with an ISP/infrastructure background and capital to put into
           | acquiring ipv4 blocks. It's actually much easier then renting
           | out real estate (I do both), as it's mostly just jumping on
           | tickets that need you to click a couple buttons every so
           | often. If you find some stable/large lessees, it's more or
           | less set it and forget it for N number of years.
           | 
           | I'm not sure I'd advise people to jump into this market when
           | IPv4 is hitting $50 per address, but I've also thought the
           | "top" was in years ago so what do I know :)
           | 
           | I've pondered for a few years now somehow offering "IPv4
           | investors" fractional ownership of an LLC stood up to lease
           | out address blocks - I just never had the time to get through
           | the legal/tax complexity of having 50-100 partners all
           | pooling capital. Banks are surprisingly willing to finance
           | these acquisitions as well, assuming you have an industry
           | track record.
        
             | oarsinsync wrote:
             | > I'm not sure I'd advise people to jump into this market
             | when IPv4 is hitting $50 per address, but I've also thought
             | the "top" was in years ago so what do I know :)
             | 
             | You and me both. I sold half my IPv4 holding at $20 (having
             | bought in at $8), and am both annoyed and glad that I only
             | did half, since I can now afford to sell the remaining 25%
             | at a high premium, and maintain my remaining /24 and ASN as
             | a vanity project for many decades.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | mshinas wrote:
        
       | denton-scratch wrote:
       | > We continue to apply the economics of abundance to IPv6 address
       | markets.
       | 
       | I'm an ordinary retail customer of my ISP, which is IP6-enabled.
       | So they allocated me a /56 prefix.
       | 
       | That certainly looks to me like "the economics of abundance".
       | Even if every device, appliance, light-fitting and even door in
       | my home had its own global IP address, I'd never use more than a
       | tiny part of that allocation.
        
         | ithkuil wrote:
         | There are 2^24 times more /56 networks than entire ipv4 address
         | spaces.
        
           | denton-scratch wrote:
           | Point taken.
           | 
           | Still, it's the "economics of abundance" to automatically
           | dole out huge amounts of address space to someone who can't
           | demonstrate the need for more than a few dozen addresses.
        
             | mgbmtl wrote:
             | A /56 is a good fit for a residential ISP. Initially some
             | ISPs gave out a /48.
             | 
             | A /56 gives you 256 subnets. A /60 only 16. I'm happy they
             | are erring on the side of potential innovation. ISPs have
             | no idea how IPv6 will be used.
             | 
             | A few years back, I was running a ton of various services
             | from home, various APs, community mesh network, services
             | over VPN. It worked well on a /56. (Thank you Teksavvy)
        
               | denton-scratch wrote:
               | If You're running multiple APs (with IP6 over wifi) and a
               | community mesh, you have a demonstrable need for space. I
               | have a single AP and a few strands of CAT5.
               | 
               | Can you even run IP6 over wifi? I've never looked into
               | it. It's never crossed my mind to try to use any public
               | IP address on a wifi network.
        
               | vlovich123 wrote:
               | IP and MAC are separate layers. So yes, ipv6 works fine
               | over 802.11 as long as your router supports ipv6 (I think
               | by now all home routers probably do)
        
               | MayeulC wrote:
               | The wi-fi access point doesn't even need to be
               | IPv6-aware, I'm pretty sure. Most can be set to a
               | "bridge" mode that should work fine (note that I did not
               | test this personally).
               | 
               | But even cheap wireless routers I bought 10 years ago
               | support IPv6, and I doubt you really want to use that on
               | a modern Wi-Fi network.
        
               | wmf wrote:
               | /56 leaves room for them to upsell /48 on the "pro" or
               | "business" tier. ;-)
        
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       (page generated 2022-02-05 23:02 UTC)