[HN Gopher] Apple's privacy push cost Meta $10B
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Apple's privacy push cost Meta $10B
        
       Author : robteix
       Score  : 410 points
       Date   : 2022-02-04 10:03 UTC (12 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.economist.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.economist.com)
        
       | sjs382 wrote:
       | Alternatively, "How Apple Closed the Privacy Hole that Facebook
       | Was Exploiting to the Tune of $10bn"
        
       | samwillis wrote:
       | As a rough datapoint, I run a consumer targeted e-commerce site.
       | We ran a campaign before Christmas were we were selling a new
       | product that was only marketed on Facebook, we are certain that
       | (almost) all customers found it though that Facebook campaign.
       | Facebook was only able to _attribute about 50% of the sales_ to
       | the ads, it should have been close to 100%. This then meant that
       | Facebooks estimated CPA was effectively double what it actually
       | was.
       | 
       | Important to note about 60% of our customers are on an iOS
       | device, which is a little higher than the global average but
       | matches the market segment we are in in the UK.
       | 
       | The situation improved after about 4 weeks, I believe Facebook
       | now uses some "AI" to help with attribution on iOS, but it's
       | somewhat difficult to be sure as by then we had other campaigns
       | running.
       | 
       | So, this will definitely be effecting marketers decision making
       | process of where to allocate spend. It certainly made us more
       | courteous about spending on Facebook.
        
         | DaveExeter wrote:
         | >So, this will definitely be effecting marketers decision
         | making process
         | 
         | Affecting, not effecting.
         | 
         | >It certainly made us more courteous about spending on
         | Facebook.
         | 
         | We assume you meant "cautious" and not "courteous".
        
         | azalemeth wrote:
         | What is the shop? I partly live in the UK, don't run iOS, don't
         | use Facebook and block ads about a billion different ways at
         | once. There's a chance I might be interested in your products.
        
           | paulcole wrote:
           | If you used Facebook and didn't block ads about a billion
           | different ways, you might already know what their product is!
        
             | jackjeff wrote:
             | But then again. If it was an interesting product, Facebook
             | would be the last place on earth where it's advertised.
             | Don't know what it is but I'm predicting it sucks.
        
         | Nextgrid wrote:
         | Out of curiosity, why can't you just make the ad point to a
         | custom URL (on which you can then set a cookie if you wanted)
         | and do attribution that way?
        
           | samwillis wrote:
           | That is almost exactly what UTM url parameters are [0]. We
           | use these and via them our other tracking collaborates our
           | theory on Facebooks tracking.
           | 
           | There is actually a real problem with tracking via cookies on
           | Facebook ads when the destination is a website. The ad click
           | will open in a Facebook "In App Browser", any cookie that you
           | (or any analytical service) sets will be within that IAB. If
           | the user then uses the "open in Safari/Chrome" option that
           | tracking can be broken as there is no cookie. Ideally you
           | want your visitor to either complete their transaction within
           | the IAB or to use the "open in Safari" option _immediately_
           | so that any tracking parameters are copied to the other
           | browser allowing the cookie to be set.
           | 
           | In our case the majority of our customers will have a better
           | experience outside of the IAB and so we have a popup that
           | prompts them to use "open in Safari" before navigating away
           | from the first page view. We actually implemented this after
           | noticing a _very high_ drop out rate for iOS Facebook IAB
           | users during our checkout. What was happening is address
           | /payment card autocomplete isn't available within the
           | Facebook IAB and people were clicking "open in Safari" during
           | the checkout in order to use it, they would then find
           | themselves with an empty shopping cart, hence the drop out.
           | 
           | 0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UTM_parameters
        
             | danudey wrote:
             | So not only is the Facebook/Instagram "try to lock users
             | into our own browser to track them" thing user-hostile, but
             | it actually harms companies that are using ads by having
             | them drop in the middle of the funnel?
        
             | iamadiggo wrote:
        
             | Dyac wrote:
             | That's really interesting, I'm going to check our analytics
             | to see if the same thing is happening.
             | 
             | Another way you could potentially get around it is to
             | fingerprint the user and store the basket contents server
             | side and present them to that fingerprint.
        
               | samwillis wrote:
               | We considered doing something like this but it would be
               | very hard to ensure no false matches which could result
               | in security compromises.
               | 
               | We also considered placing the session id in the url for
               | the checkout, but again decided against due to security
               | concerns.
        
               | nsp wrote:
               | It's fairly hard to uniquely fingerprint iOS devices,
               | there aren't that many configuration options, most people
               | use the stock browser etc.
               | 
               | Actually I suppose this may have changed since the
               | introduction of safari extensions on ios? I haven't
               | looked into this since that released
        
             | z3rgl1ng wrote:
        
         | nonameiguess wrote:
         | You attribute 0% of purchases to repeat loyal customers who
         | just check in on what you're selling every now and again
         | without needing to be reminded by a marketing campaign?
        
           | samwillis wrote:
           | Sensible question, we took this into account in our
           | assessment. I stand by it.
        
         | Irishsteve wrote:
         | If this holds true the headline should really be companies /
         | brands double marketing roi due to apple privacy changes
        
         | prasadjoglekar wrote:
         | Agreed. For advertisers with larger budgets, marketing mix
         | models are still the only way to understand the relative
         | performance of FB, Google, TV etc. - each of which is a "walled
         | garden" that doesn't exchange data with others.
         | 
         | FB marketing is effective, question is at what price. If those
         | prices drop, ad dollars will flow back. It will take a few
         | quarterly modeling cycles to reflect this though.
         | 
         | The contra-contrarian view is this: FB, Google have an unusual
         | mix of large, medium and small advertisers all bidding for the
         | same inventory. That's what makes FB and Google somewhat immune
         | to large advertiser pricing pressures (and issue of the day
         | spend bans). However, only the larger advertisers have budgets
         | for complicated cross-publisher modeling. If organic FB tools
         | show higher CPAs, it will drive the smaller marketers to other
         | platforms causing some interesting feedback loops.
        
           | propogandist wrote:
           | FB attracts big ad dollars as they will continue to claim to
           | have huge audience reach
           | 
           | >if a user does not have their Facebook and Instagram
           | accounts linked in the company's Account Center, those
           | accounts will be considered as two separate people for ad
           | planning and measurement.
           | 
           | https://web.archive.org/web/20211031105427/https://adage.com.
           | ..
        
           | samwillis wrote:
           | Exactly, as a small business we are completely dependent on
           | the ad platforms internal attribution tools, if they don't
           | work or can't be trusted we won't use them.
           | 
           | It's unfortunate that the incredably invasive tracking and
           | profile building has become conflated with ad attribution.
           | For us attribution is essential and we have little interest
           | or use for invasive tracking. We just want to know from which
           | ad a customer converted.
           | 
           | Personally we avoid the more invasive remarking tools as I
           | hate it myself when you are chased across the web by a
           | product you have looked at once.
        
             | yuliyp wrote:
             | What do you mean by conflated? The tracking and profile
             | building is how they correlate results with ad impressions.
             | That this data is then also used for training the models
             | and identifying the user coefficients is just a different
             | use of the same correlation data (a website visit is just
             | another type of ad conversion, after all).
        
               | laurent92 wrote:
               | We shouldn't identify the user. We should identify the
               | content. "I want to be shown next to car pictures,
               | because maybe the guy is missing carpets for his car"
               | instead of "We want to be shown to guys 24-30 with
               | interest in cars." First is tracking the content, second
               | is tracking the user.
        
             | morelisp wrote:
             | I work in adtech and hear "We don't want to track people,
             | we just want to know what events led to conversion" all the
             | damn time. (Or conversely, from the sell side, "we don't
             | want to track people, we just want to learn/verify our
             | audience's composition.).
             | 
             | Sorry to break it to you, but that's what tracking is.
             | 
             | You're saying you don't want remarking, but - you want to
             | know something that requires marking. "Remarking" is just
             | persistent marking. What you don't want is "retargeting",
             | which is when the user gets to learn someone is building a
             | profile of them. But that's just whether the "marked"
             | profile is used to also "target" - the profile gets built
             | either way.
        
         | ksec wrote:
         | I cant upvote you enough. This single comment contains many of
         | the contrarian view against HN. It is nice we have these real
         | world stories on HN to balance the ideological fight against
         | ads, where All Ads are evil.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | travisporter wrote:
           | Well no one's arguing that targeted ads are not effective.
           | This is just an example of how well it works, so upvoting it
           | may not be the best way to bolster your side of the fight.
        
             | ksec wrote:
             | >Well no one's arguing that targeted ads are not effective.
             | 
             | Oh they sure were. All ads are useless. Targeted ads are
             | evil. And Ads should not be targeted were the HN's view,
             | which later became there shouldn't even be any ads, it
             | should all be subscription. That is 2018/19. By 20/21 HN
             | were even targeting those who were working inside the
             | online Ad industry. And this is seen across the tens of
             | thousands of comments. ( Say 50 Thread of 200 comments )
             | 
             | It became such a problem that people working inside Ad
             | industry were even afraid to post their views on HN. And
             | they have to be upvoted to make sure there are still sanity
             | inside the HN community.
        
               | ratww wrote:
               | Arguing that "ads are evil" is different from calling
               | them ineffective. Most people dislike targeted ads them
               | because of privacy/resource usage issues. Other people
               | dislike ads in general. Some of those want ads to stop
               | existing exactly because of how effective they are.
        
               | llbeansandrice wrote:
               | > All ads are useless
               | 
               | I don't think I've ever seen someone say this. People
               | hate that they make the internet impossible to use. I
               | have a family friend that runs a small business and all
               | of the revenue comes from ads on the websites they run. I
               | hate using their website because of the ads.
               | 
               | Pop-up that takes up the whole screen asking to
               | subscribe, auto-play video ad, content moving as ads get
               | loaded slowly. It's all just awful to use. The ads are
               | absolutely effective though.
        
               | colinmhayes wrote:
               | Freakonomics had an episode with some econ professors who
               | claimed their research with eBay showed targeted ads are
               | not worth the cost.
               | https://freakonomics.com/podcast/does-advertising-
               | actually-w...
        
               | galangalalgol wrote:
               | Ublock origin and pihole make the internet a more
               | pleasant experience for me. It has been suggested that I
               | should feel some nagging voice causing guilt that I do
               | not support the sites and apps I use that depend on ad
               | revenue. Perhaps there should be, but there is not.
               | Apple's position on this is just responding to demand.
               | When wifi access points start offering built in enabled
               | pihole by default those access points will sell well.
               | Throw in a vpn to pipe your phone through it from
               | wherever that is easy to use/automatic and "ads are
               | useless" may become truth.
               | 
               | Edit: it would likely just cause a shift to self hosted
               | ads, which is a dramatic improvement imo.
        
               | Firmwarrior wrote:
               | Self-hosted ads COULD be a dramatic improvement, if the
               | companies start vetting these ads in some way
               | 
               | My guess is it'll result in backend web modules that make
               | it easy to automatically dynamically re-host the same
               | virus- and tracker-infested malware ads we all hate
        
           | HWR_14 wrote:
           | First, it's not "all ads are evil". It's the spying and
           | tracking of ads that most people oppose.
           | 
           | Second, how is this a "balanced ideological fight"
           | counterargumnet. Let's say I oppose Facebook ads as invasion
           | of privacy (and I do). A person on the internet used Facebook
           | ads to make money. Those are contrary why? It's not like I'm
           | sitting here and was like "oh, now that someone _made money_
           | on the ads, I 'm totally in favor of them."
        
           | scarface74 wrote:
           | I have no problem with targeted ads based on what I
           | specifically told Facebook. It's when I'm shopping on Amazon
           | and see the same products advertised on FB that there is a
           | problem.
        
             | danudey wrote:
             | For the longest time I was getting Amazon ads on Instagram
             | that were for products I had recently viewed - even viewed
             | less than an hour before in some cases. Moreover, the
             | Amazon account we use is my wife's, which we pay for Prime
             | on. I would look at something on my phone, which is logged
             | into her account, and then see the ad show up in my
             | Instagram feed that day or a few days later.
             | 
             | Now, I get 90% ads for car parts and car accessories. I
             | don't have a car, I don't drive, I don't have a license,
             | and I don't even like to be in a car, but for whatever
             | reason Amazon (or Instagram?) ads are assuming that what I
             | really want are car parts and car accessories that I don't
             | recognize, can't use, or don't understand.
             | 
             | It feels very stupid to me that those are the "default" ads
             | I'm getting, even though I never tap on them for obvious
             | reasons, but it's reassuring to know that they went from
             | knowing exactly who I am and specifically what I had been
             | looking at to having no clue whatsoever anything about me,
             | or who I am or what I like.
        
           | maybelsyrup wrote:
           | Ads are evil. To work, they play upon human insecurity. In
           | many cases, they create desires or perceived needs that
           | weren't there before, making them wasteful in addition to
           | scammy/conniving. Because they're successfully evil - the
           | tricks work - they often leave a residue on people: beyond
           | just never being able to forget a jingle from a cereal ad you
           | heard when you were 8, a lifetime of very frequent exposure
           | to advertising trains us to suspend our criticality, or
           | hinders us from developing it in the first place. So it
           | leaves people dumber, too, more pliable and dependent.
           | Hilarious in a country like the US, whose national mythos is
           | so obsessive about personal liberty and rugged self-reliance.
           | 
           | We have a family friend, retired now, who had a successful
           | career in marketing and strategy in multi-billion dollar
           | transnational companies. I once asked (probably naively) why
           | [maker of extremely popular product at the time] ran so
           | little advertising. The friend told me "they have a good
           | product. They don't need to spend money haranguing people
           | into buying it or spreading the word about because it's
           | actually good. Word of mouth is free".
        
             | thorncorona wrote:
             | I'm sorry "they often leave a residue on people"?
             | 
             | At least half of your polemic needs citations.
        
               | maybelsyrup wrote:
               | Oh dang sorry, I'll get right on that
        
           | micromacrofoot wrote:
           | The real world story is that marketing in one channel is a
           | little worse now... I don't feel like that justifies the
           | existence of data-mining to show ads.
        
           | nonameiguess wrote:
           | While there are plenty of people annoyed by any ads at all or
           | who believe any form of marketing is inherently evil, that is
           | not at all a majority view. Yet almost everyone hates the way
           | Facebook does it except sellers. The problem isn't the ads.
           | It's the level of surveillance required to make them as
           | effectively targeted as they are. People don't want
           | everything they ever do to be recorded, catalogued, and
           | studied to build a psychological profile of their global
           | purchasing habits.
        
           | user_7832 wrote:
           | I disagree.
           | 
           | The problem was never about the ads.
           | 
           | It was about the fact that ads were forced, privacy-invasive
           | (due to customization) and generally were terrible overall
           | (think malware/crypto mining risks, terrible UX - think
           | annoyingly flashy gifs, or those gigantic banners in the
           | middle of a scenic drive), not to mention poorly regulated,
           | leading to lots of "double your money/phallus in 3 days!"
           | type of scams.
           | 
           | There are a few "fair" advertising companies (the name slips
           | me) that I am perfectly happy with. A static, discreet ad
           | need not be bad. Several ads are absolute works of art and
           | passion. The vast majority are not.
           | 
           | What we have is (techy) folks wanting to not have a shitty
           | experience, and the average privacy-conscious user not
           | wanting tracking. Companies do not respect (or care enough)
           | for these which is why you have an anti-ad point of view. (I
           | should probably write about this.)
        
             | mercutio2 wrote:
             | Oh, anti advertising maximalists certainly exist! I'm
             | certainly not in the majority, but if I could live in a
             | world where:
             | 
             | A) Advertising was considered so extremely gauche that no
             | one did it B) No revenue from advertising existed C) Ad-
             | supported services went away
             | 
             | I would be a very happy man.
        
             | kmlx wrote:
             | > and the average privacy-conscious user not wanting
             | tracking.
             | 
             | zero traction in the real world for this. people will click
             | on whatever you show them.
        
             | FabHK wrote:
             | Exactly. In the old world, ads were attached to matching
             | content, which gave an incentive to produce insightful
             | pertinent content (and develop a reputation in a certain
             | content subject area). Those ads were not much of a
             | problem.
             | 
             | Today, the ad industry tracks the user, and ads are
             | attached to matching user interest, which gives an
             | incentive to produce arbitrary, but addictive content, with
             | most of the benefit accruing to the ad oligopolies instead
             | of the content producers.
        
               | bobthepanda wrote:
               | also, while ads were certainly dispersed through
               | magazines and the like, a huge chunk of them were really
               | just in the back and not with the main stuff.
        
             | ksec wrote:
             | >I disagree.
             | 
             | I dont think we disagree.
             | 
             | Like I wrote in another post, most on HN couldn't
             | understand the difference between placement ad on Google
             | Search Engine and Google Ads Network. And suggested we
             | should ban all "tracking ads". And later all ads. I
             | explicitly ask them and suggest what you just wrote. That
             | there could be good ads, and they, by majority disagree.
             | This isn't just on HN, it is pretty much across the whole
             | tech industry. Benedict Evans wrote a lot about this [1]
             | and on Twitter. We even went to ask people offline to make
             | sure we are not in an online bubble. But so far the results
             | suggest otherwise. Especially with Tracking [2].
             | 
             | [1] https://www.ben-
             | evans.com/benedictevans/2021/5/13/apples-ads...
             | 
             | [2] https://twitter.com/benedictevans/status/13874146504431
             | 41120...
        
               | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
               | > This single comment contains many of the contrarian
               | view against HN. It is nice we have these real world
               | stories on HN to balance the ideological fight against
               | ads, where All Ads are evil.
               | 
               | I still don't understand your point. The only reason
               | Facebook's ability to properly attribute went down
               | drastically is _specifically_ because of the iOS privacy
               | changes that require user opt in to track _across
               | different sites_.
               | 
               | Fine, I don't doubt there were other HN commenters who
               | were arguing different meanings of "tracking", but that's
               | all a moot point. In this instance, we know _exactly_ why
               | Facebook 's ad effectiveness went down - it went down
               | because they could no longer track all your interactions
               | across the majority of the web. Tough shit.
        
               | oconnore wrote:
               | Why does ability to attribute an ad depend on the ability
               | to track individuals?
               | 
               | IIUC, you can do attribution with a very basic ad: <a
               | href="website.com/ad-34" ping="fb.com/my-
               | product/ad-34/ping"><img src="fb.com/my-
               | product/ad-34/img.jpeg" /> Come buy my product, you'll
               | love it!</a>
               | 
               | Then you sum up all the "/ad-34" hits, and figure out how
               | many of those user sessions (which are now on your own
               | site -- single domain, but perhaps leveraging a script
               | supplied by the ad network) went and actually bought
               | something. The ad network can correlate those sessions
               | with the "ping" it receives to determine clicks vs.
               | conversions.
        
               | CrazyStat wrote:
               | You do not understand correctly.
               | 
               | Facebook (and other ad networks) want credit if someone
               | clicks on your ad, spends time on your site, but then
               | doesn't actually buy anything until a couple days when
               | they enter the URL directly (i.e. not clicking on an ad).
               | This is the problem generally referred to as attribution.
               | Facebook (and others) do this by tracking everyone all
               | around the web. They track the ad click and then they
               | track you going back to the website the next day, and
               | they know it's the same person.
               | 
               | Ad attribution directly depends on pervasive tracking.
        
               | oconnore wrote:
               | You can do that with first-party cookies though.
               | 
               | Allow some facebook supplied javascript to set a first
               | party cookie when the user hits website.com/ad-34, and
               | then reference that 1st party cookie the next day when
               | the user returns. Phone home when they buy something.
               | Facebook can now correlate (1) the ping they received to
               | begin with, (2) the user session cookie they initiated on
               | the first visit, and (3) the user session they observed
               | when a purchase was made.
               | 
               | I'm sure things get easier with 3rd party tracking, but
               | fundamentally you can do it without cross-site tracking.
        
               | jfim wrote:
               | Out of curiosity, does attribution also work if the ad is
               | not clicked?
               | 
               | For example, I bought a product the other day after
               | seeing a Facebook ad, but I didn't click on the ad itself
               | and rather went searching for it on DuckDuckGo, then
               | after reading a bit about it online, bought the product.
               | 
               | I'm curious as to whether that got attributed to the ad
               | impression or not.
        
               | yuliyp wrote:
               | Not all purchases come immediately after clicking through
               | an ad. They may come days later, even. Knowing that "this
               | user who purchased this product saw this version of the
               | ad" and "this user saw the other version" is what
               | attribution is.
        
           | tehjoker wrote:
           | Ads synthesize desire and cause people to be unhappy when the
           | ads work. They encourage expending money that could have been
           | saved, or taking on debt. They also create a funding
           | situation where media producers are beholden to corporations.
           | 
           | The implementation of ads is also wildly invasive, creepy,
           | and propagandistic. However, focusing on implementation
           | allows ad salesmen to lessen the sharpness of the criticism
           | by supposing there is some "nice" way this could be done.
        
             | bryan_w wrote:
             | Ads aren't inherently trying to make people unhappy (at
             | least the good ones). Ads in the best case, are just
             | informing a person about the existence of a thing. There
             | have been many ads that I've found useful, not because of
             | some evil mind games, but rather because i didn't know of a
             | company providing such a service.
             | 
             | I don't think there is anything inherently wrong with
             | expending money for things that are valuable. That kinda
             | seems like the whole point of money.
        
               | chrischen wrote:
               | Ads are a corruption of organic discovery though. Yes it
               | _could_ help you but say person A hocks product 1 because
               | they are paid, even though product 2 is actually superior
               | for you. Ads corrupt their incentives. Even if product 1
               | is good for you, product 2 is better. Product 1 ends up
               | succeeding because they decide to play the game of
               | corrupted promotion.
        
               | tehjoker wrote:
               | The idea of an ad is that it says you don't have this
               | thing. Your life will be so much better if only you had
               | this thing. In some cases, that makes sense, but mostly
               | it serves to reset people's expectations and become
               | dissatisfied with what they have.
               | 
               | I think in many cases we should be aiming to do that for
               | social fundamentals that would make all of us live richer
               | and happier lives like healthcare and education, but it
               | has a lot of negative consequences in consumer products
               | which are more individualistic, competitive, and status
               | oriented.
        
         | wizzwizz4 wrote:
         | > _Facebook was only able to attribute about 50% of the sales
         | to the ads, it should have been close to 100%._
         | 
         | Word-of-mouth exists. It's possible Facebook wasn't making it
         | up. Did you use a Facebook-specific link in the ads?
        
           | Ntrails wrote:
           | > Did you use a Facebook-specific link in the ads?
           | 
           | I do sometimes find it odd that such a thing is insufficient
           | for tracking sources of traffic in and of itself. No doubt
           | there is a complexity that I have missed
        
           | samwillis wrote:
           | > Word-of-mouth exists
           | 
           | True. However in this case we are confident, based on our own
           | internal tracking and metrics, that this is correct.
        
             | geoduck14 wrote:
             | >True. However in this case we are confident, based on our
             | own internal tracking and metrics, that this is correct.
             | 
             | I'm _really_ curious what you sell now. Can you tell us?
             | 
             | If not, can the rest of HN create fun speculations?
        
               | danudey wrote:
               | Maybe they had a drop-down saying "How did you hear about
               | us?" with just "Facebook Ads" and "Not Facebook Ads",
               | that's my theory.
        
               | SllX wrote:
               | > If not, can the rest of HN create fun speculations?
               | 
               | Human armpit-scented cat toys.
        
               | bduerst wrote:
               | Mechanical keyboard keys that are 10" tall for standing
               | desks.
        
               | Guest42 wrote:
               | Subscription beach towel service printed with top 5 memes
               | by volume
        
         | jbay808 wrote:
         | Is it possible that some fans spread the word organically after
         | they initially found your product through FB?
        
           | samwillis wrote:
           | Yes, maybe a tiny proportion, but to nowhere near the extent
           | of what we saw. We are 100% confident in our assessment.
        
       | bigyellow wrote:
       | What's Meta? You mean Facecrook, the spying and surveillance
       | network?
        
       | skizm wrote:
       | Facebook's revenue up 35% year over year: -26% (P/E ~16)
       | 
       | Amazon's revenue up 15% year over year: +12% (P/E 60+)
       | 
       | I don't get the stock market. Facebook can simply turn on
       | billions in revenue whenever they want still with WhatsApp, which
       | has north of 2 billion MAU, and has not been monetized at all
       | yet. Facebook is a reverse meme stock.
        
         | babypuncher wrote:
         | It's not just about how well they are doing, it's about how
         | well they are doing compared to how well they were _expected_
         | to be doing. If a bunch of people bought Facebook stock last
         | year based on expectations that revenue would go up 45% year
         | over year, then they probably over-valued the stock.
        
         | pessimizer wrote:
         | WhatsApp has competitors that in Telegram/Signal etc. that are
         | financially stable, offer more features and security, and with
         | the mood of the government right now they would absolutely be
         | prevented from purchasing. They would destroy WhatsApp in weeks
         | if they did that.
         | 
         | Amazon is fine and doesn't need to grow. Facebook is in danger
         | and growth was already priced in. Now it's not.
        
           | kazen44 wrote:
           | heck, soms European politicians are calling for a split of
           | WhatsApp from Facebook because Facebook did not honor their
           | end of the deal when they bought WhatsApp.
           | 
           | fb hilariously claims that this would be impossible, which is
           | kind of proving they didn't hold up their end of the bargain.
        
         | coldpie wrote:
         | > I don't get the stock market.
         | 
         | There's nothing to get, it's just gambling for rich people.
        
           | altdataseller wrote:
           | This. The market is just a bunch of random ppl and robots who
           | are have different motivations and opinions. Some are long
           | term oriented, some just wanna make a quick buck. It's just a
           | chaotic casino.
        
         | colinmhayes wrote:
         | Facebook's guidance was shit. Amazon's was not.
        
         | akashshah87 wrote:
         | The current stock price of the company is theoretically the
         | present value of future cashflows. For example, if you had
         | project this revenue growth a year ago, you should have bought
         | Facebook stock and not Amazon and you would have bet correctly.
         | Facebook stock is up 21% from 2/1/2021 to 2/1/2022 whereas
         | Amazon stock is down 9.54% during that same time period.
        
       | intrasight wrote:
       | FB is one of the most developer hostile platforms that I've
       | worked with. For example, their API tokens expire in 60 days, so
       | users of automated reporting tools are constantly having to re-
       | grant. Why? No good reason. And the documentation is garbage. FB
       | can't blame Apple or anyone else for those failings. They should
       | fix the things that are under their own control.
        
         | worik wrote:
         | > FB is one of the most developer hostile platforms that I've
         | worked with
         | 
         | Have you done development on Apple platforms? That might push
         | FB into second place....
        
       | mojuba wrote:
       | https://archive.fo/ZasjX
        
       | erikpukinskis wrote:
       | I remember when Facebook Platform came out. The super early
       | version where you could embed your app on Facebook and engage
       | with the social graph.
       | 
       | I thought dang, this is smart. They'll basically own the next
       | level up the stack from the browser: they'll own the "social
       | chrome" of every application on the web.
       | 
       | Although it devolved into spam, Facebook was a hot spot of weird
       | social games for a while there. And every web dev was learning
       | how to build Facebook apps. We wondered if we'd even really need
       | a domain for much more than a landing page, if 99% of our
       | engagement was going to come through Facebooks.
       | 
       | And then they killed it because they wanted to own the entire
       | experience inside Facebook. It became not a walled garden, but a
       | walled flower pot.
       | 
       | It always seemed short sighted to me. Yes, they lost control
       | allowing third party apps in their frame. But didn't they want to
       | be a Microsoft and not a WordPerfect?
       | 
       | Looking back, I wonder if it was a missed opportunity. They have
       | to go try to be the metaverse because social never became a
       | platform.
        
         | danudey wrote:
         | I kind of miss those awful games, honestly. There was one my
         | girlfriend at the time was playing, and I thought it was
         | interesting but kind of tedious, the UI reacted too slow, etc.
         | 
         | So I opened up my editor and wrote a Python client to automate
         | the game; go to forest, attack until your inventory is full, go
         | to town, sell inventory, repeat. I left it run overnight and
         | completely blew past her in progression.
         | 
         | Now everything is an app, and every app uses HTTPS, and every
         | HTTPS connection uses certificate pinning, and I just can't be
         | bothered to do the work anymore to cheat at useless games I
         | don't like.
        
           | DanHulton wrote:
           | I'm still playing one, actually:
           | https://www.mousehuntgame.com. They transitioned to just
           | being a web game that runs in a FB frame for users that still
           | wanted to play it there, but I haven't had an FB account for
           | years now, and I can still play right at the URL.
           | 
           | "Interesting but kind of tedious" is absolutely a great
           | descriptor, though. It's basically an incremental game that
           | grows at the slowest possible rate you can imagine.
        
         | scarface74 wrote:
         | They killed it because it didn't work on mobile.
        
           | ineedasername wrote:
           | Maybe their desktop traffic wouldn't have tanked so much if
           | they'd kept it a richer experience, and continue to enrich
           | it. Instead they abandoned it completely once traffic
           | patterns tipped towards mobile.
        
             | scarface74 wrote:
             | How many people really use desktops that much in 2021 for
             | personal use? Facebook is already seen as being "for old
             | people".
        
               | ineedasername wrote:
               | 78% of homes have a computer in them. [0] I don't know
               | anyone who does not use a PC for personal use, and my
               | non-work social circles are not at all techie dominated.
               | 
               | Also I'm not talking about 2021: I'm talking about years
               | ago when Facebook moved away from prioritizing the PC
               | platform. Maybe it wouldn't have mattered, I don't know,
               | but when FB became a primary entry point to the internet
               | for many people, and FB then mostly ignored desktop
               | experience, it certainly accelerated any decline already
               | in place. But had they enriched that experience, maybe
               | there'd still be a much stronger following there.
               | 
               | [0]https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-
               | releases/2021/computer...
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | 55% of all web traffic worldwide comes from mobile.
               | 
               | https://www.statista.com/statistics/277125/share-of-
               | website-...
               | 
               | And considering that most people spend 8 hours a day at
               | work, how much personal usage on the web comes from the
               | desktop? How many younger people are using computers for
               | personal use - especially if it a shared family computer.
               | 
               | Heck I am a software developer and my personal computer
               | is just sitting in a corner as a Plex server. I haven't
               | used it for anything productive in a year and a half and
               | that was for updating my resume.
               | 
               | Besides that, Facebook got more popular because of mobile
               | when everyone had a camera in their pocket with GPS when
               | they csn post the highlights of their life. Not to
               | mention WhatsApp is all about communicating real time and
               | Instagram is about sharing pictures.
        
               | zuminator wrote:
               | Worldwide contains a lot of places without personal
               | computer friendly economics. The corresponding stat in
               | the USA is about 47% by way of comparison.
               | 
               | https://www.statista.com/statistics/683082/share-of-
               | website-...
        
               | ipaddr wrote:
               | So you do no personal development on a desktop? Do you
               | use your work's equipment? Are you using your phone?
               | 
               | I have three desktops on the go all day. Three keyboards
               | in front of me and three mice. I run Windows 7, 10 and
               | ubuntu and another ubuntu under windows 10. Trading that
               | in for my mobile is very limiting.
        
               | Brendinooo wrote:
               | Anecdata, but I'm teaching a coding class for 10-12 year
               | olds and most of them don't know their way around a
               | laptop. Most of their work has been done on tablets or
               | maybe phones.
               | 
               | It wouldn't surprise me at all to learn that huge chunks
               | of demographics don't really use desktops or laptops all
               | that much.
        
           | cheriot wrote:
           | Then they lacked the imagination. The Facebook app would have
           | become a web browser where Facebook controls user auth,
           | contacts and then payments. Big $$$
        
             | bryan_w wrote:
             | >would have become a web browser
             | 
             | Not on iOS where that sort of thing is prohibited. Sure
             | they could put a skin over safari, but apple would have
             | banned the entire FB app as soon as they found a
             | developer's app they didn't like.
        
               | ipaddr wrote:
               | Apple would have lost the mainstream user back then. Now
               | they have power over facebook
        
               | deckard1 wrote:
               | I always wondered: why is Apple allowing WeChat to exist?
               | Their mini apps seem in direct competition with the app
               | store. Is this a China political thing? Are they worried
               | about losing all access to the market there? It seems
               | clear Apple is not applying their own rules consistently.
               | If that's the case, wouldn't there also be anti-trust
               | implications here?
        
               | Thorentis wrote:
               | > Is this a China political thing?
               | 
               | Yes.
        
             | scarface74 wrote:
             | By 2009, Apple and Amazon already had more credit cards on
             | file than any other company in the US if not the world. In
             | Apple's case because of iTunes, before the App Store and
             | Amazon because Amazon. Why would you use FB for payments
             | when you were probably either shopping on Amazon, Apple or
             | EBay using PayPal?
        
               | HWR_14 wrote:
               | In 2009 neither Apple nor Amazon allowed P2P payments.
        
               | cheriot wrote:
               | In this path, people would be interacting with
               | games/content in Facebook "apps" that are effectively
               | mobile web pages. Facebook would have control inside
               | their garden.
               | 
               | As soon as any Facebook app convinced a user to pay, all
               | other facebook apps would have a seamless checkout.
               | 
               | Getting user financials isn't _easy_ but we 've seen the
               | rise of Venmo, Robinhood, and Neobanks since then so it's
               | doable.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | By 2009, mobile was clearly the future. But the phones
               | were underpowered and didn't run web pages well. Even
               | today, most of the world is browsing the internet on low
               | end phones where the web provides a sub par experience.
               | 
               | Desktop penetration is lower outside of the US. Aren't
               | Internet cafes still a thing in much of the world because
               | people don't have computers at home?
        
               | cheriot wrote:
               | I think internet cafe's are pretty old school everywhere
               | now. Anecdotally, much of the developing world
               | leapfrogged the US on mobile/fintech. People had low end
               | smart phones and banked with their phone carriers 5+
               | years ago in East Africa.
               | 
               | Latest anecdote (this week) is not seeing internet cafe's
               | in Belize and government PSA's say to contact them on
               | whatsapp.
               | 
               | That said, Facebook makes their money in rich countries.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | I'm an ignorant American, you mean what I see on 90 Day
               | Fiance is not representative of the rest of the world?
        
         | freewizard wrote:
         | "Social Chrome" is a base of moving sand, just like Google AMP,
         | it works for a brief while via platform's power but will phase
         | out; web game died out naturally with devices becomes cheaper,
         | and consumers going mobile (and consoles).
        
       | matheusmoreira wrote:
       | Apple probably has the power to kill the advertising industry.
       | Wish it would use its gatekeeper position to do good for once.
        
         | throwaway4good wrote:
         | Apple has the power to extort massive amounts from the
         | advertisement industry. Case in point: Google.
        
           | throwaway4good wrote:
           | I think FB is understating the cost (the drop in revenue
           | growth is more and Google's revenue growth hints on what it
           | could have been); maybe because they are negotiating a deal
           | with Apple.
        
         | friedturkey wrote:
         | I doubt it. Even with universal ad blocking on their platforms,
         | iPhones are the minority worldwide and Macs even more so.
         | 
         | Websites would just make sites painful to use for Apple users
         | and force them into exceptionally expensive subscriptions
         | (which most people won't pay for) or onto cheap devices that
         | allow endless ads.
        
           | smileysteve wrote:
           | > make sites painful to use for ... users and force them into
           | exceptionally expensive subscriptions
           | 
           | I think you just described AdBlock, YouTube, Netflix,
           | Washington Post, NyTimes, Spotify, and Amazon services, with
           | of paid apps on the side.
        
           | dodgerdan wrote:
           | Users of iPhones are many many times more valuable to
           | advertisers than Android users.
        
             | ecdouvhr wrote:
             | Average iPhone users may be more valuable to the average
             | advertiser when compared to the average Andoid user, but
             | there are plenty of markets where I'd say there are plenty
             | of advertisers who'd benefit from targetting the lower end
             | of the income spectrum.
        
             | HPsquared wrote:
             | Only if they see the ads.
        
             | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
             | iPhone users spend much more money on Apps per user - but
             | the vast majority of advertising is not for apps. It's to
             | buy real things.
             | 
             | Android Users spend similar amounts as iOS users on
             | everything besides apps.
             | 
             | Even in-app purchases for games isn't "many many times
             | more" - it's close to 2x.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | How is this possibly true when the average household
               | income of iOS users is higher in every country that has
               | any significant iPhone presents
        
               | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
               | It's not "many many times" higher...
               | 
               | It's ~40% more: https://www.comscore.com/ita/Public-
               | Relations/Infographics/i....
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | That 40% gives you a lot more discretionary spending
               | ability ...
        
         | mrweasel wrote:
         | Don't confuse advertising with tracking. I believe that the
         | true advertising business and the people who really understand
         | marketing is going to have a lot of success in the coming
         | years.
         | 
         | The business that will hurt are those who only know how to
         | click around in Google AdWords or Facebooks Ads. Those business
         | but all their eggs in a rather small basket. Facebook isn't
         | going away anytime soon, but it will fail more quickly that
         | some expect. If 50% or more of your business is coming from
         | Facebook, start making plans for the future now.
        
         | YmiYugy wrote:
         | They could obviously forbid apps to show ads and implement a
         | powerful, default-enabled adblocker into Safari. But why would
         | they? The outfall would likely see many important developers
         | pull their apps at least temporarily. Of the Top 10 Downloaded
         | Apps of 2021 (https://www.macrumors.com/2021/12/02/apple-most-
         | downloaded-a...) only a single one doesn't have ads. This could
         | be Pyrrhic victory for Apple. It would most likely also seal
         | the deal on sideloading regulation.
        
         | viktorcode wrote:
         | I think you are under impression that ad industry depends on
         | tracking of individuals. That's incorrect. It just a tad less
         | efficient without tracking.
        
           | scim-knox-twox wrote:
           | ~4% less effective
           | 
           | https://techcrunch.com/2019/05/31/targeted-ads-offer-
           | little-...
        
             | mcv wrote:
             | I'm totally fine with ads being 4% less effective. I wish
             | it was more.
        
         | tirpen wrote:
         | Ads were around for hundreds of years before Apple even
         | existed. The advertising industry will survive just fine.
        
         | pcardoso wrote:
         | Yes, but let's not get over excited.
         | 
         | I'm fed up with their ads to subscribe to their services in
         | macOS/iOS: the App Store, on Apple Music, Apple Arcade,
         | Fitness+... I'm getting tired of clicking "no thank you".
        
       | sixhobbits wrote:
       | Maybe off topic but super ironic that I had managed to read the
       | first sentence
       | 
       | "POP-UP NOTIFICATIONS are often annoying."
       | 
       | and then got punched in the face by a huge cookie popup from
       | Economist
        
       | echopurity wrote:
        
       | EGreg wrote:
       | I think their Metaverse push was actually a great way for rats to
       | escape a sinking ship ... by finding a new ship!
       | 
       | Facebook just could never really capture the whole "facilitating
       | real world interactions" thing, and for most people it became
       | simply a way to maintain an online avatar / identity, argue about
       | politics, comment on cat memes, and otherwise waste time in
       | cyberspace. That's what they're good at, and maybe with the
       | metaverse they can at least make people more productive with
       | that.
       | 
       | Now there are BENEFITS to MetaVerse. Less usage of fossil fuels.
       | Facebook also facilitated conversations between people around the
       | world, that would otherwise not meet. But its centralized nature
       | and limited flexibility held back the whole space.
       | 
       | But when it comes to making plans in real life, forming
       | relationships, deal flow etc. you need open source software like
       | this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZ1O_gmPneI
        
       | tromp wrote:
       | > But last year, citing privacy concerns, Apple turned off IDFA
       | by default and forced apps to ask people if they want to be
       | tracked. It seems most do not: a study in December by AppsFlyer,
       | an ad-tech company, suggested that 54% of Apple users who saw the
       | prompt opted out.
       | 
       | Hard to believe that nearly half of all people is ok with being
       | tracked...
        
         | altdataseller wrote:
         | Occams Razor: very few ppl actually care and just press a
         | random choice so they can move forward and use the app.
        
         | sneak wrote:
         | I believe that most people live relatively uneventful lives,
         | and truly believe that they have nothing to hide from anyone,
         | and resultantly do not value their own privacy whatsoever. The
         | loss of privacy from surveillance capitalism does not bother
         | them at all, and practically it is all upside, because they
         | lost nothing of value to themselves.
         | 
         | It does not enter their minds that mass abandonment of privacy
         | means that it renders privacy harder and harder, or even
         | impossible, for the tiny minority of society that needs it to
         | operate: human rights advocates, investigative journalists,
         | labor organizers, political upstarts, et c.
        
           | hotpotamus wrote:
           | The best comeback I've heard to that sentiment is, "would you
           | like a camera in your bathroom?". And then the other night I
           | was talking to my aunt and she mentioned that she has an
           | Alexa in the bathroom so she can listen to music and I
           | realized it might not be as good a retort as I thought.
        
             | AlexandrB wrote:
             | A better retort might be: "Do you want your health
             | insurance premiums to be set based on which recipes you
             | Google?" This one has the advantage of having a material
             | impact and being almost-real[1].
             | 
             | [1] https://www.coverage.com/insurance/status-update-your-
             | social...
        
           | scatters wrote:
           | On the contrary, they do realize that loss of privacy makes
           | life harder for "troublemakers", and they see _that_ as a
           | benefit. Don 't make the mistake of assuming that everyone
           | shares your moral code.
        
           | gnfargbl wrote:
           | I agree to an extent, but I think you're grossly
           | oversimplifying the way that the average non-technical user
           | views their privacy online. It's true that many people don't
           | really care about advertisers tracking them, but they _do_
           | care about other privacy-related aspects of their digital
           | experience such as having their location tracked or the
           | content of their communications monitored. As evidence of the
           | latter, I present the enduring popularity of Signal and the
           | fact that WhatsApp thought E2EE was an important enough
           | feature to roll out across their entire user base.
           | 
           | The small minority of society that needs privacy (we should
           | be honest and say that it includes some really nasty
           | criminals as well as the good guys) really needs _that_ kind
           | of privacy, the kind that the average user is at least
           | somewhat interested in. Ad-tracking isn 't a huge concern to
           | your average union organizer.
        
         | peregren wrote:
         | Couple of possible factors (with speculation)
         | 
         | -- Most apps nudge you to accept tracking before the dialog
         | comes up. Probably influences some users - A lot of people
         | probably don't even read the dialog properly. - a lot of people
         | who have apps like facebook installed are either unaware of the
         | tracking stuff or don't care
        
           | curling_grad wrote:
           | This. I saw many non-tech savvy people just blindly hitting
           | OKs to whatever dialogs shown on their phones.
        
         | danpalmer wrote:
         | Also this is 54% of people who saw the prompt. The standard
         | practice for this sort of prompt in products that are trying to
         | _optimise_ acceptance is to pre-ask the user first, almost "If
         | we asked you if we can track you, would you be likely to
         | accept". So that's 54% of users who are probably ok with the
         | idea of personalised ads or however the app pitched it, then go
         | on to say "actually no".
         | 
         | Essentially this number is far lower than the total population.
        
           | scarface74 wrote:
           | Facebook does pre ask.
        
             | danpalmer wrote:
             | Everyone does, because a) you get to control the messaging
             | to the user, and b) once they've declined the OS prompt,
             | you can never re-do in your app, whereas if they decline
             | your own prompt, you can ask them again whenever you like,
             | like when you know they've just had a positive experience.
        
         | paulcole wrote:
         | Unpopular opinion on HN, but I'm 100% OK with being tracked
         | because it means:
         | 
         | 1. I get to use products and services I like without paying
         | money from my wallet. I have plenty of data to share that's
         | effectively worthless to me.
         | 
         | 2. I get exposed to new products and services (through ads)
         | that I'd like to buy. I like buying things!
        
           | FearlessNebula wrote:
           | You _want_ companies to use your personal information to
           | manipulate you into buying products you don't need?
        
             | paulcole wrote:
             | Yes! I don't earn money to watch it sit in the bank. If
             | there's something fun out there that I might like to buy,
             | show it to me!
        
               | FearlessNebula wrote:
               | I guess im talking about something else. You're talking
               | about being shown ads that are related to your interests
               | which is fine with me.
               | 
               | I'm talking about Facebook radicalizing people and
               | manipulating their viewpoints and selling them on things
               | they otherwise would have never wanted in a million years
               | if they hadn't used Facebook.
               | 
               | I'm not talking "Facebook showed me a cool pen and I like
               | to collect fountain pens so I bought it", no issues
               | there. I'm talking "Facebook radicalized and manipulated
               | me and now I am buying extremist books and courses that I
               | otherwise never would have".
               | 
               | The latter is why I disable targeted ads. Because it just
               | an order of magnitude beyond "showing me relevant
               | products"
        
               | tiborsaas wrote:
               | If you can be manipulated by ads to be a terrorist I
               | guess you have greater problems than tracking. In this
               | case I'd say it's better for the public if these people
               | are keep getting tracked.
        
               | FearlessNebula wrote:
               | Not sure where you grabbed terrorism from...
        
               | tiborsaas wrote:
               | "radicalizing people and manipulating their viewpoints"
               | 
               | it doesn't matter though
        
               | nonameiguess wrote:
               | It's not about him. Society at large has a problem if any
               | people at all are able to be manipulated like this. And
               | clearly, some are.
        
               | tetraca wrote:
               | This mindset is so weird to me. I can't imagine just
               | wanting to buy things for the sake of buying things. I
               | generally only buy things because I have problems I
               | recognize and want to solve. And the more heavily
               | advertised a solution to one of my problems is, the more
               | I inherently distrust it to actually be a quality lasting
               | product/service instead of something that's just
               | desperately trying to program me that it's actually good.
        
               | ddingus wrote:
               | I go back and forth.
               | 
               | I like to buy things myself, but I generally have a
               | purpose of some sort, or having used similar things, am
               | targeting a very robust thing that I can camp on and use
               | for a decade or two.
               | 
               | A good friend is always buying products, trying them out,
               | gadgets and such. And they spend a lot, but they are
               | always super happy with their new things and frankly,
               | give me a lot of their older things so they can get more
               | new things!
               | 
               | (that's crazy, but they do them, and we are great
               | friends, and I make good use of the stuff falling my way
               | too)
               | 
               | That said, I generally don't gauge off the AD campaigns.
               | Big spends are a rational choice as are modest ones and
               | or guerilla type campaigns, which the latent rebel in me
               | is a sucker for.
               | 
               | What I can say, knowing someone like that, is they are
               | entertained by new things. I'm sometimes that way, but
               | it's rare. Like a great watch might do that, or some cool
               | tech thing I can use with my hobby computing / making.
               | But, my entertainment is more centered on doing stuff,
               | and or hanging with people, maybe doing things with them.
               | 
               | I do hate getting a thing that sucks. Shuts me down for
               | quite a while.
               | 
               | I LOVE a good score, like a thing that is just awesome
               | and I know it will perform for ages.
        
               | tiborsaas wrote:
               | I'm doing the same as paulcole. If I already want to buy
               | things, like a new table for my living room or new tiles
               | for my bathroom, then I do want to see what's on the
               | market beyond my bubble. That's not because I'm
               | manipulated into buying them[1]. If I see a new ad and I
               | like it, I do check if I can get same product for a
               | cheaper price from a company who's ad budget is not baked
               | into the price.
               | 
               | Basically I can use targeted ads as a free product
               | discovery engine. Seeing an ad doesn't mean I'm going to
               | mindlessly buy it. I know some people do that, but
               | there's a way to make use of the situation.
               | 
               | [1] there might be an evil conspiracy among kitchen table
               | manufacturing companies who teamed up with Hollywood
               | producers to sell me the idea that I want a loft style
               | new kitchen table :)
        
             | ineedasername wrote:
             | Everything but food, clothing, and a place to live are
             | things we don't need. There are countless additional
             | luxuries that make life more convenient or enjoyable. I
             | found out about Instant Pots from ads, and when I finally
             | decided to check it out and found it interesting I bought
             | one. It has significantly improved my after-work quality of
             | life multiple times a month with large reductions in food
             | prep time.
             | 
             | I found out about glowforge the same way and added a very
             | useful & revenue generating tool to a small side-business I
             | run.
             | 
             | So I don't mind _a little_ bit of targeted ads. I don 't
             | regard them as inherently bad. I do however believe that
             | each individual _should have complete control_ over the
             | process as it relates to their own personal data.
        
               | FearlessNebula wrote:
               | I totally agree. But I don't think Facebook (or anyone
               | else to my knowledge) gives the user proper control over
               | their data. My fear is that by feeding them this
               | information, they'll be able to gradually manipulate me
               | in ways I otherwise never would have been interested in.
               | For example I noticed that YouTube gradually started
               | pushing me conservative leaning self improvement videos a
               | la Jordan Peterson and co. I have never knowingly watched
               | that type of video, and now I'm getting "alpha male" ads
               | for supplements and courses.
        
       | firechickenbird wrote:
       | -$10bn is not enough. They are still able to read my brain
       | somehow
        
       | martini333 wrote:
       | Why is every journalist blaming Apple's Privacy. Like, use your
       | brains, get a life.
        
         | bell-cot wrote:
         | I'd guess that desperate-to-stay-employed journalists feel far
         | more need to suck up to Zuck than to suck up to Cook. And the
         | "why Apple is in the right" case takes a whole lot more &
         | longer words and concepts to explain. Vs. "Big meanie Apple
         | took $10B from every's-favorite-site Facebook".
        
       | annoyingnoob wrote:
       | If you were to physically track someone and catalog everything
       | they do in meatspace, we'd call that stalking. Why is that
       | behavior acceptable when done by software? It should not be okay,
       | its still stalking - no matter your intentions or end goals.
        
       | andrei_says_ wrote:
       | Can we say that this puts a value on the non-consensual privacy
       | violations that facebook's business model depends on?
        
       | stjohnswarts wrote:
       | Looks like I jumped on the iPhone bandwagon just in time to cost
       | facebook some money! (got my iphone ~1.5 yrs ago). What I don't
       | get is why iphone needs to scan your phone at all. I mean they
       | literally have a treasure trove of information of most of their
       | users, why do they need to sell that? Why don't they just act use
       | the megatons of info they already have on you from scanning your
       | page and your messages to other users? They should be rolling in
       | ad revenue without needing to spy on data on phones.
        
         | slenk wrote:
         | What about just not using Facebook...
        
           | babypuncher wrote:
           | Before this change, Facebook could still track you in non-
           | Facebook apps that use their software. Even if you are not a
           | Facebook user.
        
             | slenk wrote:
             | This change actually eliminates/ed that? (never used iOS,
             | unsure of how things are)
        
       | mojuba wrote:
       | I'm going to ask the same question here:
       | 
       | If I run a Facebook ad campaign for my app and given that Apple
       | already provides the SKAdNetwork attribution mechanism, does
       | enabling IDFA benefit my app, or it benefits only Facebook?
       | Marketing people are trying to convince me IDFA is important for
       | ad efficiency and thus should be enabled (with the spooky ATT
       | popup in the beginning), but something is telling me it's not. I
       | might be wrong and would really like to know.
        
         | disgruntledphd2 wrote:
         | If you want the Ad optimisation from FB/Google/whoever to work,
         | it's important.
         | 
         | More generally, if you want to be able to track your own users
         | and where they come from, it matters.
         | 
         | If all of your traffic is organic, then it's irrelevant.
        
           | mojuba wrote:
           | So if there's SKAdNetwork attribution, why do I need to give
           | the unique device ID to FB or Google in addition to that?
           | They will know which ad led to the install via SKAdNetwork
           | calls anyway, right?
           | 
           | I know IDFA benefits them because they can connect the dots
           | and know which apps are installed on a given device. But does
           | my app's campaign benefit from that so much that I should go
           | for the ATT popup?
        
             | disgruntledphd2 wrote:
             | > So if there's SKAdNetwork attribution, why do I need to
             | give the unique device ID to FB or Google in addition to
             | that? They will know which ad led to the install via
             | SKAdNetwork calls anyway, right?
             | 
             | Nope, they'll only know that some percentage of impressions
             | of an ad lead to installs. With their SDK, they'll know
             | _who_ installed, and they can then feed this back into
             | their ML models to find more similar people for you.
        
               | mojuba wrote:
               | Thanks. I still doubt it though. Firstly even without the
               | IDFA they can heuristically identify devices in vast
               | majority of cases, in fact even more accurately compared
               | to the IDFA method given the current opt-in rates of
               | 30-50%. Branch does this with deep linking and it's
               | pretty successful despite the tightened privacy on the
               | iOS side (I can imagine how Branch and similar services
               | irritate Apple).
               | 
               | My hypothesis is that Facebook pushes developers to
               | enable IDFA because it saves them some effort: of course
               | it's faster and easier than heuristics. Therefore, apps
               | don't benefit from enabling the IDFA. But I might be
               | terribly wrong and am open to counter-arguments.
        
               | disgruntledphd2 wrote:
               | Hey man, it's entirely up to you. When you have pretty
               | rare events (like purchase/website conversions) every
               | single one matters, but I feel like you probably have
               | enough information to make an informed decision now.
        
       | sebow wrote:
       | Correction: Apple's war on FB/Meta/Zucc cost Meta $10B.
       | 
       | Let's not disingenuously pretend they did it out their own good
       | hearts and for people's privacy: they did not. Also more people
       | overly attribute this loss of Meta to Apple measure's than
       | general Meta trends.Meta's rebranding, dystopian vision about the
       | future and it's anti-society effects though their business model
       | which promotes less trust in the population is what brings up
       | this number, not entirely Apple, not entirely Android.Then again
       | outlets and people who do these kind of oversimplifications might
       | aswell do it for sensationalism, since we need the same people to
       | be explained the truth when something changes.
        
       | honkycat wrote:
       | There was a great tweet today:
       | https://mobile.twitter.com/kevinroose/status/148927407968513...
       | 
       | Kevin Roose: Can't imagine why this platform is shrinking
       | 
       | Facebook top ten: The top-performing link posts by U.S. Facebook
       | pages in the last 24 hours are from:
       | 
       | 1. Breitbart 2. Ben Shapiro 3. Dan Bongino 4. NPR 5. Ben Shapiro
       | 6. Ben Shapiro 7. Ben Shapiro 8. Steven Crowder 9. Ben Shapiro
       | 10. Franklin Graham
       | 
       | I won't touch the platform anymore. It's so out of touch.
        
       | crawsome wrote:
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | lvl100 wrote:
       | What I don't understand is why is this hitting them now? Those
       | privacy features were turned on for awhile.
        
       | eric4smith wrote:
       | Lies.
       | 
       | Don't you all see it? Facebook has been declining over the past
       | year and this is a convenient way to blame someone - anyone.
       | 
       | Let's face it, what are your friends all using now? That's right
       | - video - YouTube and TikTok.
       | 
       | Facebook had no answer for video and thus lost a lot of eyeballs.
       | 
       | Instagram is a poor clone of TikTok and most people just repost
       | their popular TikTok videos on Instagram reels anyway - hardly
       | any original videos show up there.
       | 
       | As the world transitions to short form video even YouTube is
       | going to feel the pinch.
       | 
       | Don't you notice every one of your favorite content creators
       | starting "clip" channels which are blowing up with YouTube shorts
       | and reposts to TikTok?
       | 
       | Facebook is beginning its long inevitable decline. Who knows if
       | it will accelerate or just be a slow death?
       | 
       | And Zuck is very smart. The moment I saw the rebrand to Meta I
       | knew that he saw this day coming perhaps years ago. He knows the
       | next frontier is the meta verse and so he's trying to make
       | Facebook be the epicenter of it.
       | 
       | Who knows if it will work. But this has nothing if anything to do
       | with Apple. And everything to do with the long term trends of
       | history... or if you will, psychohistory.
        
         | samwillis wrote:
         | While I agree with you that Facebook (the app) is in decline
         | and Facebook/Meta are rushing to diversify as the market
         | changes, the premise of the article that Apples change has
         | significantly effected Facebooks revenues is not a lie.
         | 
         | Apples change has fundamentally damaged ad conversion
         | attribution from the Facebook/Instagram apps on iOS, we have
         | seen it it ourselves.
         | 
         | It may be that the exact figure of $10B is inflated, it could
         | even be an underestimate. Meta may have an agenda in how they
         | are spinning it, almost certainly do in fact. However I can
         | assure you that the fundaments of the article and what they are
         | saying is true.
        
           | intrasight wrote:
           | Please correct me if I'm wrong. This privacy change only
           | affects apps on iOS? I only use the facebook.com website. Ad
           | tracking in that context hasn't changed?
        
             | lolinder wrote:
             | https://www.statista.com/statistics/377808/distribution-
             | of-f...
             | 
             | 80% of Facebook users exclusively use mobile, and iOS has
             | the largest market share in Facebook's largest market by
             | revenue.
        
             | tnel77 wrote:
             | That's true, but I'd guess that there are a lot of users
             | that exclusively use the iOS app.
        
               | intrasight wrote:
               | Among my peers where I've observed how they use FB, I
               | think it's an even split. For me, if there's a web site,
               | I skip installing the app. And of course a majority of
               | news and social and commerce web sites now prompt you to
               | install the app.
        
               | samwillis wrote:
               | Personally when I occasionally use Facebook its via the
               | app so that I am not logged in in by browser. Don't want
               | them spying on everything I do online.
               | 
               | Twitter on the other hand I use in the browser as I like
               | to be able to open threads in tabs to come back to.
        
               | FearlessNebula wrote:
               | Many don't just prompt you to install an app, they
               | borderline force you. Reddit is guilty of this, as is
               | Instagram and TikTok.
               | 
               | Presumably this is because they can gather much more data
               | via a mobile app.
        
             | vishnugupta wrote:
             | You can use Safari along with privacy relay enabled to
             | minimize websites' tracking.
        
         | throwhauser wrote:
         | I was with you up to here:
         | 
         | > And Zuck is very smart. The moment I saw the rebrand to Meta
         | I knew that he saw this day coming perhaps years ago. He knows
         | the next frontier is the meta verse
         | 
         | Zuckerberg has been a surprisingly good steward of the one
         | successful idea he came across, the social network graph. His
         | acquisitions (Instagram, etc) worked very well to supplement
         | the social network graph and keep it going longer than it
         | otherwise might have gone. But now that no one gives a shit
         | about what anyone else is doing and just wants to see some
         | jokes, that graph is getting less and less complete.
         | 
         | The "metaverse" is an idiotic, last-ditch attempt to lock
         | people back into the grid by turning them into cartoon versions
         | of themselves in a private-sector universe. It's ridiculous.
         | Facebook is flailing.
        
           | biztos wrote:
           | I agree he's been a good steward of the graph -- even people
           | who hate Facebook and don't use Facebook are actually using
           | Facebook! -- but I suspect he needed Sandberg to turn it into
           | the big money.
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | Even in my older demographic (i.e. those of us who got in
           | when you still needed edu addresses or shortly thereafter)
           | which is supposedly more the core audience for Facebook this
           | days, I don't see people "rage quitting." But I do see
           | essentially everyone in my circles (including myself) having
           | dialed down usage a _lot_.
        
             | oramit wrote:
             | Mid 30's here and I joined right after the .edu requirement
             | was dropped. Everyone in my age group is on Facebook but
             | they rarely post anymore because they are busy! They all
             | have kids and jobs and house projects they are working on
             | and the novelty of updating about everything has worn off
             | so they post very infrequently. When Gen-Zers make jokes
             | about Facebook being for old people, that's us!
             | 
             | The algorithmic feed can't handle the "lack" of new posts
             | though so it keeps inserting lots of ads, videos, and
             | whatever that I don't actually care about. I really like
             | Facebook when it is about interacting with my friends but
             | everything else is a distraction. The level of distraction
             | in Facebook is just too high. It's okay if nothing is going
             | on!
        
               | thefourthchime wrote:
               | Mid 40's here. I have a single friend that still posts
               | frequently. Everyone else has either dropped off entirely
               | or rarely posts. My wife is on facebook all the time, but
               | it's for her social groups, like Mom, teacher groups.
               | 
               | At least for me, the overheated political posts became a
               | huge turn off. I think many people left after the
               | election.
        
           | dalbasal wrote:
           | There's an element of having shot themselves in the foot. FB
           | moviled from content driven purely by your friends and what
           | they post to content that FB have decided to feed you.
           | 
           | That worked great in a lot of senses. You never run out of
           | content. FB have a lot more options for their optimisation
           | efforts. It also made them more of a general media company.
           | 
           | But... it also devalued the social network/friends aspect.
           | Now it's just about content and holding user attention.
           | Well... that means competition is everything again. Anyone
           | can post anywhere, or consume content anywhere.
        
             | orbifold wrote:
             | Yeah, whenever I see others scrolling through content at
             | Facebook, I can't help but wonder who would voluntarily
             | subject themselves to so much garbage information. It is
             | similar with Twitter, which I use for "science
             | communication". But the amount of miscellaneous memes and
             | low quality click bait ads that one has to endure is almost
             | physically painful.
        
               | np- wrote:
               | Pretty sure some people's brains are just stuck in an
               | infinite dopamine kick loop. I consider it similar to the
               | opioid epidemic, where people's brains have been re-wired
               | to compulsively do things they might not want to do. Next
               | time try asking someone you see scrolling Facebook if
               | they're actually enjoying themselves and I guarantee they
               | will express some form of regret (but then will continue
               | doing it).
        
               | _1100 wrote:
               | Isn't the short answer to "why are people subjecting
               | themselves to this" just dark patterns?
               | 
               | I know it sounds overly reductionist or boogeyman-esque,
               | but they captured a market and refuse to let go, doing
               | every single thing they can to keep and monetize human
               | attention.
        
               | orbifold wrote:
               | It is kind of scary I've observed myself going to the
               | "trending" hashtags section more and more.
        
           | mathattack wrote:
           | I concur. At some point I started looking for the best
           | contest over caring about yahoo classmates engaging in
           | political wars. It's entertainment for them but not for me.
        
           | jliptzin wrote:
           | I joined FB in 2004 as a stanford student. I used it
           | religiously in college because it was the cool new thing at
           | the time, but after that I mostly didn't see the appeal. I
           | really never gave a shit what some guy from high school who I
           | haven't spoken to in 10+ years is posting about. When there
           | is so much more interesting content to consume in the world,
           | why would I bother with the crap someone is posting just
           | because we happened to touch paths at some point in the past?
           | I care about _good_ content, not content just because it
           | comes from someone I know. If it 's coming from a close
           | friend, like news about a new job or a baby, I'll find out
           | about it anyway when I see them. So for the last decade or so
           | I sign into Facebook on avg once / month for maybe a minute
           | at a time (only when someone tells me I need to check
           | something), and it always perplexed me how people could spend
           | so much time there. If everyone used Facebook like I did, it
           | probably would have folded long ago. So I am either just a
           | hermit or ahead of the curve, I guess time will tell.
        
             | cercatrova wrote:
             | Interesting. I feel the exact opposite. I don't really care
             | about content anymore, it's really just mind numbing
             | drudgery. There's a reason there's a meme about getting
             | addicted to HN and doing "deep work" with "digital
             | minimalism".
             | 
             | In recent times I've cared more and more about what my
             | friends and family are doing, because those are the people
             | I'm connected with in actuality, in real life.
        
               | potatolicious wrote:
               | I agree with your position - but I don't think it
               | necessarily means you disagree with the other post.
               | 
               | I've completely stopped using FB _because_ I want to
               | connect with my friends and family. After using the
               | product for many years I realized that idly surfing past
               | pictures of children, weddings, BBQs, etc, that despite
               | FB 's loud insistence, that's not _connection_. Even
               | commenting on friends ' posts isn't... really connection?
               | 
               | It was idle voyeurism, or drive-by socialization.
               | 
               | Now I make an active attempt to keep in touch with people
               | by, well, directly talking to them. This isn't some
               | brilliant insight on my part - let's be honest, online
               | socialization has been moving towards this for some time.
               | The group chats I'm a part of, and the virtual/IRL
               | meetings are far more fulfilling to me than any amount of
               | FB feed surfing.
        
               | stephenhuey wrote:
               | I prefer direct communication even though the surrounding
               | culture seems to be less comfortable with that these
               | days. While I will still post an update on FB every few
               | months, I got annoyed with how the algorithm made the
               | feed harder to follow so many years ago. In the early
               | days I was a big proponent of blasting out a post to
               | whoever might see it, but I have too many "friends" and
               | even if I curated that list I'd still miss so much amidst
               | the clutter because the algorithm made it so some
               | important-to-me stuff will never appear in my feed. And
               | so often the people I want to see something don't see my
               | posts. Hence directly texting and emailing them photos!
               | If there were a social media tool that had my best
               | interests in mind, perhaps I could trust it to show my
               | people the content I want to share. Maybe I'm old school
               | since I appreciate getting email and snail mail letters
               | from people, but now if I want to tell people something I
               | send it to them directly. If there are too many people to
               | email/text/call, maybe I should rethink what I'm doing
               | and why. Some people respond positively to that and I'm
               | guessing others find it too forward, but I don't feel bad
               | about being too forward. Decades ago we used to knock on
               | front doors without telling them in advance that we were
               | dropping by, so I don't feel an unsolicited texted photo
               | of my baby is so uncomfortably forward compared to that.
               | :)
        
               | cercatrova wrote:
               | That's true, I have group chats in in as well, but FB and
               | IG serve somewhat of a different purpose for me. See my
               | other comment:
               | 
               | >I also get messages or pictures from people I'm friends
               | with, but for people who are more acquaintances, I follow
               | them on IG and see what they're doing, and if it's
               | interesting I'll comment on the post or message them, and
               | catch up with them that way.
               | 
               | >It's also somewhat of a hassle to send messages and
               | photos to people when you want to share it broadly, such
               | as a trip you went on or something. People might also not
               | necessarily want to see what you're sending all the time,
               | so an IG post is an easy way for people to follow you and
               | what you're up to.
               | 
               | >You can almost think of it as RSS for your friends and
               | family.
        
               | ericmay wrote:
               | I don't understand why you need Facebook or TikTok or
               | Instagram to stay connected with friends and family. What
               | even is "being connected"? I think people hold on to
               | friends they meet too hard. People come and go. If you
               | don't maintain a friendship outside of social media then
               | that's ok. Let them go. Move on.
               | 
               | We run a family Slack group. All the functionality of
               | being connected, none of the bullshit.
        
               | cercatrova wrote:
               | I can follow all my friends and family on Instagram and
               | see what they're doing. I don't necessarily need all my
               | friends and family to talk to each other like in a big
               | group chat. It's a one to many relationship (me to them)
               | versus many to many (everyone to everyone else).
        
               | ericmay wrote:
               | > I feel the exact opposite. I don't really care about
               | content anymore
               | 
               | How do they express what they are doing without content
               | using Instagram? Can you walk me through this?
        
               | cercatrova wrote:
               | I mean content as in what reddit or HN has, articles,
               | posts, videos about a topic etc. Of course on Instagram
               | people need to post stuff, photos and videos, but I don't
               | think that when people say content they mean
               | interpersonal photos and videos.
        
               | ericmay wrote:
               | I see. I definitely think it is content (I wouldn't draw
               | a distinction between origin), but I can see how you have
               | a different interpretation.
               | 
               | When you use Instagram do you see ads or posts from
               | people who aren't your friends or family members? I've
               | never used it so I'm not sure how the algorithms work.
               | 
               |  _Personally_ if someone is my friend and has something
               | worth sharing they'll tell me about it directly or send
               | me a picture. I don't feel like I'm missing out on
               | anything. I've had people I was friends with move and
               | we've lost touch and so forth. I don't see a reason to
               | struggle to try and stop that myself. Been pretty happy
               | this way but that is what works for me.
        
               | cercatrova wrote:
               | Ads yes, usually from random B2C companies, but I adblock
               | so I don't see any. People who aren't your friends, no,
               | you only see those who you follow.
               | 
               | I also get messages or pictures from people I'm friends
               | with, but for people who are more acquaintances, I follow
               | them on IG and see what they're doing, and if it's
               | interesting I'll comment on the post or message them, and
               | catch up with them that way.
               | 
               | It's also somewhat of a hassle to send messages and
               | photos to people when you want to share it broadly, such
               | as a trip you went on or something. People might also not
               | necessarily want to see what you're sending all the time,
               | so an IG post is an easy way for people to follow you and
               | what you're up to.
               | 
               | You can almost think of it as RSS for your friends and
               | family.
        
           | deckard1 wrote:
           | > The "metaverse" is an idiotic, last-ditch attempt
           | 
           | Exactly. It's a bet-the-farm move from a company that has a
           | track record of, best I can tell, a big fat zero in terms of
           | in-house innovation. This is like Google deciding to shift
           | the entire company to Google+, except Google+ was just a
           | clone of an existing thing that actually worked. Meta has no
           | precursor. It's an entirely new thing that Facebook is trying
           | to will into existence _without even so much as testing the
           | waters first_.
           | 
           | I have a feeling Zuckerberg is going to enrage investors
           | enough that he has to flee Facebook in the middle of the
           | night under the cover of darkness with the help of a few
           | loyal toadies providing safe passage, _or_ he 's going to
           | start building his Fuhrerbunker and be the last man standing
           | while Facebook turns to rubble. I'm slightly joking, but
           | also... Zuck has to be in the running for the worse tech CEO
           | ever. They paid $16 billion for WhatsApp and then started
           | promoting their own Facebook Messenger which no one used. I
           | feel like their intent was to kill WhatsApp in the crib. But
           | the "crib" turned out to be the entire global population and
           | was, in fact, too big for them to kill and get people to
           | switch to their own garbage chat app.
        
           | eric4smith wrote:
           | Zuck did not get to where he is by being short sighted or
           | stupid.
           | 
           | The Metaverse is the obvious next evolution of online.
           | Accelerated by the happenings of the last 2 years.
        
             | zarriak wrote:
             | Zuck moved first in "metaverse" with Oculus 7 years ago and
             | what does he have to show for it?
             | 
             | Some decent/good hardware locked behind logging into your
             | Facebook account.
             | 
             | If it had been any other company that had done with Oculus
             | what Facebook has done with it they would be mocked
             | endlessly for such magnitude of failure.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | >If it had been any other company that had done with
               | Oculus what Facebook has done with it they would be
               | mocked endlessly for such magnitude of failure.
               | 
               | Probably true but no one else would probably have made it
               | work either.
               | 
               | VR tech isn't really there today but even if it were
               | better, it's still more of a niche use case than its fans
               | would have it be. (Certain types of gaming, maybe virtual
               | tourism...) People don't want things to be immersive most
               | of the time. Ask me to wear a VR headset for a routine
               | work meeting? That will be a big "nope" from me.
        
               | krapp wrote:
               | >If it had been any other company that had done with
               | Oculus what Facebook has done with it they would be
               | mocked endlessly for such magnitude of failure.
               | 
               | Did they fail? Most people don't hate Facebook as much as
               | HN and seem not to have a problem with Oculus requiring a
               | Facebook account, given that the Quest 2 is the best
               | selling VR headset by far.
        
               | zarriak wrote:
               | In my account they definitely failed. As you say, they
               | did a great job with the hardware but the only real
               | software they are even advertising for it is a worse
               | version of vrchat that they took way too long to clone. I
               | don't know how to chock it up other than as a failure,
               | they acquired instagram only 2 years earlier. Instagram
               | is now a Snapchat tiktok and a little YouTube wrapped
               | into one.
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | It's very unclear to me why Second Life v2 would be of
             | interest to more than a tiny sliver of the population. The
             | _last_ thing I 'd want from Facebook is to turn into a more
             | immersive experience.
             | 
             | >Accelerated by the happenings of the last 2 years.
             | 
             | How? A fair number of people prefer to shut off their video
             | on calls. And my observation is that coming out of COVID
             | people want more in-person interactions, not less.
        
           | thefourthchime wrote:
           | I couldn't agree with you more here. To me, it's a clear sign
           | that he "wears no clothes". The Metaverse presentation was
           | the most idiotic presentation I've ever seen. He must be
           | completely surrounded himself by people that just agree with
           | him.
           | 
           | It reminds me of this clip from Silicon Valley.
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAeEpbtHDPw
        
             | bredren wrote:
             | I wouldn't describe the presentation as idiotic but it was
             | hard to take seriously. The dream of immersive VR
             | experiences showcased in Snow Crash and Ready Player One
             | will be realized.
             | 
             | But it won't be soon, and the ideas shown in the video--
             | like the surfing game--were the kind of ideas that litter
             | the floor of the App Store.
             | 
             | Compelling product experiences, especially on new
             | platforms, are extremely difficult to craft.
             | 
             | The taste of the creators must be exceptionally good and in
             | this case the hardware quality and onboarding experience
             | must bowl over anyone who touches it.
             | 
             | The Facebook video for Meta looked very speculative. I
             | suspect Meta was planned for 2023 or 2024, but was rushed
             | out the door because the brand was getting pummeled.
             | 
             | In that way, changing to Meta was very effective at
             | derailing the negative attention. But not actually having a
             | there, there is a problem when the chicken comes home to
             | roost.
        
               | thefourthchime wrote:
               | It's realized right now -- as a heavy sweaty low res tech
               | demo not many people would want to for long. I don't
               | doubt something like that will eventually be possible as
               | promised. However, the tech is so far from being there, I
               | don't think it'll happen in our lifetime.
               | 
               | Zuck may had well renamed his company "Flying cars".
        
         | criddell wrote:
         | If this isn't a lie and Apple flipping that switch cost
         | Facebook $10bn, then that tells me my personal information is
         | worth a lot. What I was getting from Facebook in exchange for
         | my data was too little. I use Google a lot more than Facebook
         | and frankly what I get from them in exchange for my data is
         | probably also way too little.
         | 
         | I wish there was some type of consumer union where we could
         | negotiate with these companies as a block.
        
           | aerosmile wrote:
           | Your data are only as valuable to Facebook as your buying
           | power. Obviously that's not the same across all people, and
           | while the average revenue per US user might be in the teens
           | per month, many US consumer are in the single digits. So
           | presumably a consumer union might get you a fraction of that
           | value back - a few bucks per month. Why not - who wouldn't
           | want a free monthly cup of coffee? I suppose the only catch
           | here is the more excited you get about this concept, the less
           | money your union could negotiate on your behalf.
        
           | gms wrote:
           | There is no need as there is no coercion involved: just stop
           | using them if you don't like it.
        
             | criddell wrote:
             | And never have email correspondence with anybody who uses
             | GMail?
        
           | echelon wrote:
           | Not a lie at all. Apple is as dirty as they come.
           | 
           | Apple is a cartel and Google pays the protection money that
           | Facebook failed to. If Apple really cared about privacy and
           | not money, they'd block Google from the platform too.
           | 
           | A single policy changed wiped 25% of a trillion dollar
           | company's market cap. That's a gravitational wave that shows
           | what kind of overwhelming monopoly power Apple wields.
           | 
           | To be clear, I hate Facebook and ads, but Apple is an
           | incredibly dirty business and is doing massive amounts of
           | harm to startups and our industry as a whole.
           | 
           | Apple owns "America's computer" (50+% of average American's
           | internet usage), and they control it like a dictatorship.
           | High taxes, close inspection of every deploy, arbitrary
           | rulings, forced use of Apple platform pieces, no possible
           | business relationships with your customers.
           | 
           | The DOJ needs to step in and remove the App Store monopoly,
           | its tax, and its arbitrary rules. When you run a device this
           | pervasive and entrenched, it's no longer a platform. It's a
           | common carrier. App installs need to happen over web, where
           | they'd still be just as safely sandboxed, monitored, and
           | remote killswitchable.
        
             | scarface74 wrote:
             | So, you're complaining that Apple gave users a choice not
             | to be tracked?
        
               | echelon wrote:
               | You keep making this kind of reply to all of my comments.
               | 
               | I've already enumerated my problems with Apple here:
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30196852
               | 
               | I would be fine if Apple removed tracking if the DOJ
               | removed their app store.
        
               | spideymans wrote:
               | It's funny how the same reasons third party devs hate the
               | iPhone are roughly the same reasons I bought into the
               | iPhone ecosystem.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | Because this article is not about developers having to
               | pay 30%
               | 
               | Your problems outside of the 30% (which is valid) is that
               | you want to be able to ship crappy cross platform web
               | apps and know more about your users (which I don't want).
        
             | CaptainZapp wrote:
             | > they'd block Google from the platform too.
             | 
             | To be fair, they didn't block Facebook from their platform.
             | Users now just need to agree that they want to be tracked
             | (spoiler: practically no one wants to be tracked).
             | 
             | I don't disagree with your general take and save for an
             | iPod classic I don't own any Apple gear. But in my book
             | that was one of the better moves that Apple ever pulled.
        
               | philistine wrote:
               | Yeah. More privacy by getting rid of third-party cookies
               | and having the prompt for apps is a great thing. That it
               | also reduces the revenue of the two monopolists who
               | didn't even bother to differentiate that revenue
               | (Facebook is 98% ads, Google is at something like 81%) is
               | the cherry on top.
        
             | criddell wrote:
             | > Apple owns "America's computer" (50+% of average
             | American's internet usage), and they control it like a
             | dictatorship
             | 
             | If Apple didn't give their users tools to control tracking,
             | wouldn't that be more dictatorial?
        
               | echelon wrote:
               | It would be fair business if the DOJ removed the app
               | store, but Apple removed APIs that allow tracking.
               | 
               | I would be fully on board with that. 100% pro-consumer,
               | pro-small business.
               | 
               | Apple needs to protect its consumers, but the US
               | government needs to protect businesses against the Apple
               | monopoly.
        
               | criddell wrote:
               | > It would be fair business if the DOJ removed the app
               | store, but Apple removed APIs that allow tracking.
               | 
               | Why is that more fair? I bought an iPhone a month ago (my
               | first) in part because I want their version of the App
               | Store and I want more privacy controls. I actually like
               | that Apple's requirements push developers to make a
               | native app rather than a web app (for example).
               | 
               | I'm certainly sympathetic to the argument that 30% is too
               | large of a cut and it's well past time for payment
               | reform. However, I think consumers would be worse off
               | losing Apple's more tightly controlled app store
               | implementation. If you want more options, go Android.
               | That's what I did for more than a decade.
        
           | sporkland wrote:
           | $10B per year divided by say 150M users equals about $5.50 a
           | month. Not bad, but not gonna cover your $20 Netflix fees.
        
           | eric4smith wrote:
        
             | DonHopkins wrote:
             | Not different??!
        
           | r0m4n0 wrote:
           | How do you know what you are getting from them is too little
           | until the service itself is gone? I suppose you can estimate
           | but I feel like without targeted advertising the web would be
           | a dark place. Personally I don't pay for much (prime,
           | Netflix, NY Times) and expect a lot. The people I know are
           | the same
        
             | visarga wrote:
             | This comes up again and again. People will continue
             | creating and posting even without ad money. They will post
             | for art, for study, hobbies, social issues or just to
             | organize events. There are also those who publish free
             | content and make a profit on something related. That's how
             | the good old internet was working back in the day.
             | 
             | The problem with current internet is that everyone is
             | trying to get the ad money so they don't really align their
             | interests with us who want quality content.
        
               | r0m4n0 wrote:
               | The problem is the freeloaders of the internet far
               | outweigh the people that want to pay for services. Until
               | that changes, we will continue to see the internet
               | dominated by targeted advertising. Honestly, it will be
               | interesting to see what happens to services like DDG. I
               | think it will be a true test of what the world wants, an
               | extremely well funded machine like Google or a more lean
               | privacy centric tool. Capitalism is an interesting thing
               | though. Targeted advertising naturally brings in more
               | money (back to the freeloaders point)
        
             | throwoutway wrote:
             | > I suppose you can estimate but I feel like without
             | targeted advertising the web would be a dark place.
             | 
             | Is this sarcasm? The web is a dark place because of
             | targeted advertisement. I'd rather pay than be tracked and
             | my data sold through bidding processes.
        
           | airza wrote:
           | The concept you are describing is a government.
        
             | hn_neverguess wrote:
             | Ah, the circle of life. Kids tend to despise their parents
             | while they are teenagers, only to switch sides when they
             | grow up and become super totalitarian parents themselves,
             | despised by their own teenagers.
             | 
             | And while they are teenagers, they also tend to develop all
             | these ideas how the government is overly restrictive and
             | doesn't allow them to live their lives freely. Well, it
             | turns out the more anti-government and "anti-system" they
             | get as teenagers, the more they fall behind in their
             | careers in their 20s, and by the time they turn 30,
             | suddenly more government interference is the answer to
             | every question in the universe.
             | 
             | Don't get me wrong, I get it - everyone here just wants as
             | much money in their pockets as possible, and government
             | interference is the only way to ensure that the wealth is
             | as equally divided as possible. I would also be the first
             | to admit that it's insane that we're not there yet - that
             | there are still some elements in our society that favor the
             | aggressive and bold ones. I am 100% convinced that with
             | time we will only see a more and more egalitarian society
             | with an equal distribution of wealth (don't worry about the
             | few people who are still slipping through the cracks - this
             | is nothing compared to monarchist societies).
             | 
             | But here's the thing that nags at me. As much as I want to
             | be in support of government interference, I can't shake off
             | the feeling that this is a signal that I didn't make it.
             | Let's tie this back to the topic on hand: iOS 14 destroying
             | Facebook's business. If you were among the 6 million
             | advertisers on Facebook who were making money from the
             | platform, then you surely wish that Apple hadn't disabled
             | the IDFA. Conversely, if your career wasn't impacted in any
             | shape or form by your ability to sell goods or services to
             | people, then you're likely thinking that Facebook shouldn't
             | have had the IDFA in the first place. It's that simple - if
             | you lost money due to the loss of the IDFA, then you're
             | thinking this way, and vice versa. Well... the 6 million
             | advertisers on Facebook are far wealthier than the average
             | US citizen. In short, if you're excited about iOS 14, you
             | are more likely to be poor than not (with enough anecdotal
             | exceptions to easily poke a million holes in this argument,
             | but at a 300 million scale, I bet there is a lot of truth
             | to this argument).
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | germinalphrase wrote:
               | " In short, if you're excited about iOS 14, you are more
               | likely to be poor than not"
               | 
               | Why are supposing that all rich people made their money
               | through online advertising? It's clearly untrue and
               | certainly not a robust enough a conclusion to feel bad
               | about your relative success.
        
               | hn_neverguess wrote:
               | I said "more likely," not "guaranteed to be."
               | 
               | > Why are supposing that all rich people made their money
               | through online advertising
               | 
               | If you replace "all" with "most," which is how I phrased
               | it, then your sentence sounds like this:
               | 
               | > Why are supposing that most rich people made their
               | money through online advertising
               | 
               | Ok now we're onto something interesting, but I can see
               | how you might be still struggling with the phrasing. May
               | I suggest to reformulate as follows:
               | 
               | > Why are supposing that most rich people made their
               | money by selling something for more than they paid for
               | it?
               | 
               | Perfect! So we just have to answer if in the context of
               | most people who became rich, "online advertising" =
               | "selling something for more than they paid for it." I
               | would argue that you can sell things without advertising
               | them, but you certainly have to make people aware that
               | you're selling those things one way or another (and mind
               | you, in the context of rich people, you have to do that
               | at a very large scale). So when answering how MOST rich
               | people attracted attention in 2021, and that AT SCALE, I
               | think the above is not so untrue (you will certainly find
               | many who ALSO used TV and other channels, but very few
               | people with a TV budget had a $0 paid social budget).
        
             | sfe22 wrote:
             | Except the government is a monopoly with its own agenda. In
             | addition it already kind of owns us (well a large
             | percentage), what would it gain if it negotiated this deal
             | for us? I would argue it can gain more power by making a
             | deal with facebook.
        
               | pnutjam wrote:
               | Everyone who doesn't vote and ignores their role in
               | Democracy let's this happen. The president matters much
               | less then the Mayor or the Governor.
        
               | alexashka wrote:
               | No.
               | 
               | You can't have a democracy with 100 IQ idiot majority,
               | because their decisions are governed by whatever gets
               | poured into their poorly working brains that week, so you
               | end up with corporatocracy or fascism, pretending to be a
               | democracy.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
        
               | Jasper_ wrote:
               | I know this isn't the point, but you do realize that the
               | IQ is rearranged to fit a bell curve with 100 being the
               | exact middle average, right? By literally the definition
               | of IQ, 100 IQ is not "an idiot".
        
               | colinmhayes wrote:
               | I think the point is that the average person is an idiot.
        
               | sfe22 wrote:
               | Then we need to fix the apparent problem of idiot
               | majority. If you say most people are stupid why would you
               | want them to vote every 4 years. Can you trust their
               | vote? Do you still advocate for the current form of
               | "democracy"? Maybe we should go back to monarchy and have
               | only one glorious ruler rather than one glorious
               | government.
        
               | alexashka wrote:
               | You can fix most people, or you can just abandon one idea
               | because it's incompatible with how most people are.
               | 
               | Tough choice, but I think I'll opt in for the latter.
               | 
               | Uh! Oh! But if not democracy, then what? Then fascism and
               | corporatocracy - what we have had for as long as you've
               | been alive. You just don't know it :)
        
               | sfe22 wrote:
               | Your reply is confusing. So you maintain that most people
               | are stupid, and still want to give them voting rights.
               | What is the logic behind that? To clarify, I don't think
               | most people are stupid, and I advocate for direct
               | democracy.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | pessimizer wrote:
               | Which is why all the choices are pre-approved by the
               | people who would be most damaged by a President.
        
               | sfe22 wrote:
               | Bullshit, if let say Facebook introduced a few parties
               | that can will control its board, and gave you a right to
               | vote every n years, and in turn required you (and your
               | offspring) to permanently be a subject of their
               | organization, would you accept. They will have mayors,
               | presidents, congress and be a democracy ( you get the
               | right to vote the board)
        
               | sfe22 wrote:
               | There is no democracy other than direct democracy. If you
               | cant fire your government this afternoon, they own you,
               | not the other way around.
        
               | CaptainZapp wrote:
               | That's not how direct democracy works.
               | 
               | If we assume that Switzerland is probably closest to the
               | ideal of a direct democracy please take note that voters
               | can not directly vote for the executive government (The
               | Bundesrat, or federal council).
               | 
               | They elect members of the two houses, which in turn
               | elects the 7 executives. Usually this is based on the
               | recommendation by the parties and with a specific formula
               | considering party, language and area of the country.
               | 
               | We also can't fire government members this afternoon.
               | It's just like everywhere else. We can just not re-elect
               | them.
        
               | sfe22 wrote:
               | I looked up the Swiss system, and it certainly is not
               | direct democracy.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | So many towns where I live put issues on the agenda for
               | town meetings. How this works in practice is that, if
               | there's some issue that someone (like a developer) feels
               | strongly about, they pack the town meeting with allies
               | and push it through because most people probably don't
               | care much and don't even attend the meeting.
        
               | ebruchez wrote:
               | > it certainly is not direct democracy
               | 
               | You appear to make up your own extreme definition of what
               | the words "direct democracy" should be and what they
               | should mean. But it's not like that. There are ways words
               | and condepts are commonly used. [1]
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_democracy
        
               | sfe22 wrote:
               | Looks like I need a new word to describe a system where
               | everyone rules, rather than certain people or
               | organization, since both democracy and direct democracy
               | are apparently taken to describe systems where all people
               | don't actually rule. Maybe "actual true direct pure
               | democracy" should do.
        
               | ebruchez wrote:
               | > Maybe "actual true direct pure democracy" should do.
               | 
               | That would certainly be clearer :)
        
               | CaptainZapp wrote:
               | I'd argue that it's closest practical example of direct
               | democracy. As in initiatives and referendums.
               | 
               | But I'm always happy to learn if you can come up with a
               | counter example.
        
               | pessimizer wrote:
               | Under a direct democracy, you should be able to vote that
               | you can't do that.
        
               | codechad wrote:
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | So let's say I'm in CA voting for my two Senators. How
               | much does my vote actually count when 10 other states
               | combined have the same population but 20 Senators?
               | 
               | How much does my vote count even for representatives if
               | I'm in a state that's heavily gerrymandered?
        
               | ameister14 wrote:
               | If you're in a district that is heavily gerrymandered,
               | your vote may actually be more important.
               | 
               | Still, the best proportional representation for you is
               | local. So mayor, state rep, governor.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | How do you propose the mayor legislate BigTech? Even on
               | the state level, gerrymandering effects representation.
               | Most of the population in GA (where I live), Florida, and
               | Texas don't support the state laws. Those three states
               | are passing all kinds of laws to make it harder for
               | people to vote. Especially after the "stolen election"
               | that saw GA turn blue.
               | 
               | And before the whataboutism replies start, I'm sure the
               | same happens on the other side. I just know more about my
               | own state.
        
               | barsonme wrote:
               | The allocation of Senators isn't supposed to be
               | proportionate to state population _by design_. It's a
               | non-issue.
               | 
               | Proportional representation occurs in the House.
        
               | wbsss4412 wrote:
               | Simply because something was designed a certain way 250
               | years ago, doesn't mean it's a non issue.
               | 
               | The political problem they were trying to solve at the
               | time (balancing the interests of independent sovereign
               | political entities with respect to land claims and future
               | political power) doesn't necessarily map onto the
               | problems we have today.
        
               | FactolSarin wrote:
               | Just because it was done by design doesn't mean it's a
               | non-issue. The Senate is an extremely undemocratic
               | organization. The population discrepancy between States
               | is much higher now than when the country was founded.
               | 
               | Nor do the reasons the founders did it this way exist
               | anymore.
        
               | wbsss4412 wrote:
               | People confuse the arguments made out of political
               | expediency for political gospel.
               | 
               | Even though many points made about the constitution were
               | rooted in political theory, and make good sense even
               | today, that doesn't change the fact that the people
               | involved were politicians who were looking to make the
               | best deal possible within the context of a rapidly
               | failing state under the articles of confederation.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | See also - slaves being counted as 3/5ths of a person...
        
               | wbsss4412 wrote:
               | The irony is that always gets brought up as though it was
               | actually meant to represent the value of the slave's
               | humanity.
               | 
               | The large slaveholding states actually wanted 5/5ths
               | whereas states will small slave populations wanted
               | 0/5ths. Slaves couldn't vote, their interests were
               | ancillary to the whole discussion. The compromise was
               | about pure political power for those that dominated them.
               | 
               | The repeal of the 3/5ths clause along with the subsequent
               | legal restrictions and terrorism against the black
               | population of the south that followed, gave the south
               | _more_ power, and subsequently made it harder to dislodge
               | Jim Crow.
               | 
               | But your point is still very valid. Somehow people are
               | comfortable compartmentalizing the notion that the
               | constitution is/was perfect, except for that one part
               | that somehow doesn't count and was "inevitably doomed"
               | anyways.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | Proportional representation also doesn't occur in the
               | house because of gerrymandering.
               | 
               | https://www.fairvote.org/votes_vs_seats_in_the_people_s_h
               | ous...
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | newsclues wrote:
               | Digital direct democracy is a potential opportunity that
               | has only become possible with ubiquitous computing
               | devices (iPhones)
        
               | [deleted]
        
           | scarface74 wrote:
           | "I care a lot about my privacy. That's why I use Google"...
        
             | criddell wrote:
             | It's more about my privacy being worth a lot more than what
             | Google is willing to pay in the form of services. As an
             | individual, the only thing I can do is stop using Google
             | and Google wouldn't miss me.
        
           | bko wrote:
           | It's not perfect but you can look at average revenue per user
           | on Facebook. There are huge differences based on the country
           | (note this is quarterly):
           | 
           | Q4 '20
           | 
           | Worldwide: 10.14
           | 
           | US: 53.56
           | 
           | Europe: 16.87
           | 
           | Asia Pacific: 4.05
           | 
           | Rest of world: 2.77
           | 
           | So you're worth just over $200 a year. This has gone up a lot
           | over time and is considerably higher than other social
           | networks. Just a year ago, it was 41.41 (23% less) and a year
           | before that is was 34.86 (15% less).
           | 
           | It's harder to do a comparison to google, but I'm sure you're
           | very valuable to them as well, increasingly so.
           | 
           | https://www.statista.com/statistics/251328/facebooks-
           | average...
        
             | skybrian wrote:
             | Averages can mislead. In gaming there are "whales" who
             | spend most of the money on in-app purchases.
             | 
             | Certain ads being seen by certain people might be a lot
             | more valuable than average? It might be interesting to know
             | who these people are.
        
             | ma2rten wrote:
             | Why are you assuming that the parent commenter is in the
             | US?
        
               | criddell wrote:
               | I am. I guess I should have said that.
        
             | Foobar8568 wrote:
             | The earning slides from SNAP compare the DAU and ARPU of
             | SNAP, Twitter and FB, reg. the ARPU, they are respectively
             | $29, $72 and $274.
             | 
             | https://s25.q4cdn.com/442043304/files/doc_presentations/202
             | 2...
        
             | bushbaba wrote:
             | It's funny as that's more than what people pay for Netflix.
             | Showing yes your data is valuable and we are getting the
             | short end of the deal.
        
             | d_watt wrote:
             | And likely a working professional adult who can afford an
             | iPhone is worth at least a deviation or two above that.
        
               | pessimizer wrote:
               | Maybe, but I'm not sure a working professional adult is
               | an ad-clicker, and I'm not sure that the ads they click
               | on can con them into doing something they wouldn't
               | normally do very often.
        
               | arepublicadoceu wrote:
               | > Maybe, but I'm not sure a working professional adult is
               | an ad-clicker, and I'm not sure that the ads they click
               | on can con them into doing something they wouldn't
               | normally do very often.
               | 
               | As a working professional adult, who has access to many
               | others working professional adults, I assure you, ads
               | work.
               | 
               | You're simplifying ads to a barebones click to rate
               | exchange. Ads are way more subtle than that.
        
               | pessimizer wrote:
               | I don't doubt they work. I doubt the margin of work done
               | by facebook ads on working professional adults over the
               | work of ads that they are exposed to through other means
               | and by word of mouth. And not that that margin doesn't
               | exist and not that it's not worthwhile to advertise on
               | facebook, but the doubt is that as compared to any other
               | demographic being advertised to that it's worth so much
               | more.
               | 
               | Advertising to impulsive spenders is worth more than
               | advertising to less impulsive spenders. Less impulsive
               | spenders are informed by ads, more impulsive spenders are
               | convinced by ads.
        
               | elliekelly wrote:
               | Wouldn't people with more disposable income (like
               | professional adults) be more likely to be impulsive
               | spenders? They can afford to be.
        
               | pessimizer wrote:
               | Maybe. But they can also afford to wait.
        
               | sanedigital wrote:
               | Ads are extremely successful for high-ticket offers. If
               | you'll selling a multi-thousand dollar product or
               | service, you can afford a lot of impressions to get just
               | the few clicks that convert for you.
        
         | duxup wrote:
         | I don't see a lot TikTok type video on any of the channels I
         | watch on YouTube.
        
           | threeseed wrote:
           | It really depends on the channel and style of content.
           | 
           | I don't see it on any of the news or review channels but more
           | common on the food, instructional etc ones.
        
             | duxup wrote:
             | Yeah I guess the only one I can think of is the vscode
             | channel that does some of those ... they're actually kinda
             | 50/50 annoying / helpful. It's a weird thing to do a short
             | on.
        
           | eric4smith wrote:
           | I never said they repost to YouTube
        
             | zwirbl wrote:
             | The comment is not about repost, it's about the short
             | video, and I also don't see much of it on yt
        
               | notriddle wrote:
               | The YouTube recommendation algorithm prefers longer
               | videos than that. It is specifically trained to optimize
               | for "watch minutes," and longer videos seem more
               | effective than extremely short ones.
        
               | ratww wrote:
               | Youtube has recently started recommending short videos
               | too, varying from 10 sec to 1 min, but that depends on
               | your viewing habits. They even have a "#shorts" feature
               | to compete with TikTok.
        
               | onlyfortoday2 wrote:
        
           | Jenk wrote:
           | Just fire up YT shorts. Nothing but content from TikTok.
        
             | duxup wrote:
             | I think I have seen that... I don't mind it in a way as I'd
             | rather watch it on youtube than install the tiktok app.
             | 
             | Granted I'm also not going out of my way to watch it so not
             | a big win for YT.
        
               | Jenk wrote:
               | Honestly it's a really poor experience compared to TikTok
               | - ignoring the whole Chinese State controlled thing - the
               | algorithm on YT just doesn't match TT's ability for
               | content discovery.
               | 
               | I haven't installed the app either but on the odd
               | occasion will doomscroll in a private browser session.
        
               | duxup wrote:
               | I think I have heard that.
               | 
               | I suspect youtube is trying to do both at the same time
               | and... doesn't work.
               | 
               | But for me and a rando one off clip, I'd rather see it on
               | youtube.
        
         | hunterb123 wrote:
         | Good lord. FB makes HN go crazy.
        
         | cjbgkagh wrote:
         | Facebook videos are super annoying. Simple bait stretched out
         | just long enough to get ads in the middle. Even if a video
         | looks interesting I have to first ask myself if it's worth 2.5
         | minutes of fluff and a 10 second ad for only a few seconds of
         | payoff. Facebook has incentivized this behavior to the point I
         | now simply refuse to click on their videos.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | alephnan wrote:
         | This seems like post-hoc confirmation of "I knew it! I told you
         | guys so!" like people who claim a catastrophic recession is
         | around the corner, quarter after next. If you have some special
         | insight that the wider market doesn't and hasn't price in, then
         | the odds and prices are asymmetrically tipped in your favor.
         | 
         | As an example, I spent $13,580 shorting Facebook on Wednesday,
         | which I haven't sold but will probably later today. Yesterday,
         | those short contracts were worth north of $200k. I did it
         | within a Roth IRA, too, which makes it even higher conviction.
         | 
         | Truth is, it was a gamble. No one really knows. If you can
         | truly predict where Facebook will be in 5 years, 2 years, even
         | next quarter, you can be really rich.
        
           | hnburnsy wrote:
           | I thought you could not short stocks in an Ira, only sell
           | covered calls? Is there some way around this rule?
           | 
           | https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-
           | finance/10311...
        
             | gruez wrote:
             | options, maybe?
        
               | jliptzin wrote:
               | Yea sounds like put options, an outright short wouldn't
               | have gained that much %
        
             | alephnan wrote:
             | You can do Level 2 options trading in a IRA.
             | 
             | So you can sell covered puts / calls, or buy puts /calls.
             | Those do not require margin. You cannot sell uncovered
             | calls / puts, which would require margin.
             | 
             | Part of my position was buying $280 weekly puts which were
             | $1.39 each, now $49.5 each ( still haven't sold lol).
        
               | hnburnsy wrote:
               | thx!
        
           | dxbydt wrote:
           | Incredibly good bet!!! Congrats all around. I made the
           | opposite bet (whoops!) but on a much smaller scale. A tiny
           | 300-270 put spread that lasted 2 days. Then, right before the
           | earning, exactly 7 minutes before 4pm, I kid you not, I had a
           | premonition. Something in my head said "Get out get out get
           | out". So I closed out my spread, pocketed my measly gain of
           | $775 and walked out the door to pick up my kid from school.
           | So I'm back home at 4:30pm, I just login to ib for curiosity
           | sake, just to see what would have happened if I had stuck to
           | my guns. Jesus Mary & Joseph I was so shell shocked...would
           | have lost well over 50K if I hadn't pulled the trigger !!! I
           | was so glad I danced a jig & took my kid out for icecream. He
           | wanted to know why, but explaining all this shit...$775
           | profit over 2 days for pushing a couple of buy & sell buttons
           | & narrowly avoiding a major, major $50,000 loss. Definite
           | icecream day. I just said Daddy is happy lets buy icecream.
        
           | chillage wrote:
           | That seems a pretty smart short (in retrospect). I guess you
           | were banking on them releasing concrete numbers on the iOS
           | changes and people panicking from it? Seems really obvious in
           | retrospect and relies on pretty common knowledge so I'm
           | surprised that worked so straightforward. Good job.
        
             | alephnan wrote:
             | I've noticed they stopped showing ads from actual
             | businesses. Instead, it was sponsored posts from
             | individuals self-promoting for purely vain reasons as
             | opposed to some commercial reason.
        
           | dom96 wrote:
           | On a more general note, anyone know of any good
           | guides/articles describing these sorts of bets? I often have
           | a sense of where a stock price will go but have no idea how
           | to take advantage.
        
             | jboy55 wrote:
             | Just note, the poster most probably did not actually
             | 'short' facebook, the poster used options to do this. Its
             | pretty simple for the buy case.
             | 
             | Options have a strike price and an expiration date. You buy
             | a CALL option, with a strike price, that gives you an
             | option to buy that stock for that price. Or you can buy a
             | PUT option, that gives you the option to sell at that
             | strike price.
             | 
             | Example using made up numbers. FB is $240. You look on the
             | options tab and you can see various expiration dates. Lets
             | pick 3 months out. You may see a Call option for a strike
             | of $250 for $20. That means that you have until 3/4/2022 to
             | exercise that option, if FB is trading for > $260, you will
             | make a profit. ($240 + $20). If FB doesn't trade you make
             | nothing.
             | 
             | Puts work similarly. The strike would just be $230. Note,
             | you don't have to exercise, if next week FB goes to $300,
             | your call's value will skyrocket to ~$60-70. You can sell
             | the option any time, you don't have to wait.
             | 
             | You may have noticed the cost of the option is greater than
             | the delta between the exercise price and the value of the
             | share. In my example this is roughly due to the time
             | between now and the exercise date. Over time, this shrinks,
             | this is called beta-decay.
        
               | npongratz wrote:
               | > _In my example this is roughly due to the time between
               | now and the exercise date. Over time, this shrinks, this
               | is called beta-decay._
               | 
               | I think you mean theta decay. Theta is the time factor of
               | an option's value.
               | 
               | Beta is, roughly, a comparison of a security's (or
               | portfolio's) volatility versus market vol.
               | 
               | https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/beta.asp
               | 
               | Beta decay is studied in a completely different industry.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta_decay
        
         | bagacrap wrote:
         | ig is neither a TikTok clone, nor is it poor.
         | 
         | TikTok users in the West skew young (ie poor) and it's all
         | short form video, which fb calls out as harder to monetize, so
         | I can't see how TikTok is a threat to soak up the ad spend.
         | We'll see what happens when they try to pivot from growth to
         | profit. For reference, with similar userbase, ig brings in 6x
         | the ad revenue of TikTok.
         | 
         | The markets are unreasonably obsessed with growth imo.
        
         | johnmato wrote:
         | This is a good analysis of understand what's currently
         | happening in the tech sphere.
        
         | time_to_smile wrote:
         | > I knew that he saw this day coming perhaps years ago
         | 
         | The only way the Metaverse would be a viable replacement for
         | Facebook would be if Occulus (or similar VR headset) adoption
         | was to rise to the level of iPhone adoption, and subsequent
         | integration into nearly every aspect of daily life. This seems
         | to be incredibly unlikely to me.
         | 
         | I have an Occulus quest. The first week I had it I thought it
         | was the most amazing device I ever owned. A month later I used
         | it less, and now, a few years later, it's gathering dust on a
         | shelf. VR is great, but it takes a fair amount of energy, space
         | and time to use. Even from solely the perspective of gaming,
         | the low-power, light weight Switch has had a much bigger impact
         | on my life than the Quest. I can play BotW for 4 hours without
         | fatigue if I have time, with VR more than an hour and I start
         | to feel very tired of the experience.
         | 
         | Now compare the Quest with the iphone, I'm looking at my iphone
         | as I type this on my laptop. I use my iphone to order food,
         | find directions around town, communicate with my family, check
         | up on work. 8 or so years back I tried going back to a "dumb"
         | phone and ultimately went back. I switched to android for a few
         | years and still went back to the iphone since it has so many
         | services nicely integrated.
         | 
         | I simply can't imagine any world where the "metaverse" comes
         | anywhere near the adoption of facebook, even if Meta mailed an
         | occulus to everyone on the planet for free.
        
         | bko wrote:
         | > Let's face it, what are your friends all using now? That's
         | right - video - YouTube and TikTok.
         | 
         | I don't think HN reader's friends are Facebooks growth market.
         | You might be looking at a biased sample. This is their growth
         | levels of the last 3 years.
         | 
         | Quarter Year MAU Q Growth A growth
         | 
         | Q4 2021 2.912 0.07% 4.11%
         | 
         | Q3 2021 2.91 0.52% 6.20%
         | 
         | Q2 2021 2.895 1.47% 7.22%
         | 
         | Q1 2021 2.853 2.00% 9.60%
         | 
         | Q4 2020 2.797 2.08% 11.97%
         | 
         | Q3 2020 2.74 1.48% 11.88%
         | 
         | Q2 2020 2.7 3.73% 11.85%
         | 
         | Q1 2020 2.603 4.20% 9.60%
         | 
         | Q4 2019 2.498 2.00%
         | 
         | Q3 2019 2.449 1.45%
         | 
         | Q2 2019 2.414 1.64%
         | 
         | Q1 2019 2.375
         | 
         | https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly...
        
           | jeromegv wrote:
           | Looking at something from 2 years ago in social media isn't
           | really relevant, trends change FAST. This TikTok trend has
           | taken over the world quite a bit over the last few months.
           | 
           | Also, annual growth worldwide tends to hide one key things.
           | It might mean Facebook is arriving in markets where internet
           | penetration was poor (poor/slow data, etc..), however you
           | have to look at their core market where advertisers spend
           | money. In those markets, have they been gaining users? It's
           | been said that they were losing eyeballs in core markets
           | while expanding in markets that didn't bring much money.
           | 
           | If they lose customers in their core market, that means the
           | service has been going down from their saturation point
           | instead of stabilizing. And a worldwide growth would hide
           | this data.
        
         | ineedasername wrote:
         | I don't think it's a (complete) lie. In the short term I think
         | it is very much the truth: 2021 once again saw record revenue
         | for them [0] so, absent a specific threat like Apple, there is
         | no reason to project a $10B loss over expected revenue gains
         | during the short 1-year term at issue during the call.
         | 
         | On the other hand, Apple's actions are part of an overall trend
         | that represents an existential threat, for the exact reasons
         | you mention and others. The main issue is probably something
         | like the innovators dilemma: they've become reactive, and slow
         | in those reactions. Their largest successes in recent year
         | haven't come from their own creations, but from acquisitions.
         | NYT has a pretty good analysis of some of its systemic flaws
         | [1]
         | 
         | [0] https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-
         | details/...
         | 
         | [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/04/technology/facebook-
         | files...
        
         | lovehashbrowns wrote:
         | YouTube already saw this with Vines, though. TikTok is just a
         | thousand times better than Vine. But ultimately the access to
         | long-form content is going to help YouTube more because of the
         | inherent access to more advertising. From what I know, people
         | on TikTok make almost nothing from view counts. YouTube going
         | to shorts is going to start eating away at those creators.
        
         | krono wrote:
         | Yes to everything, but what even is a metaverse? I still have
         | no idea.
        
           | tjpnz wrote:
           | VR chat with your Facebook friends.
        
           | wayoutthere wrote:
           | A giant bag of hopium
        
           | rgbrenner wrote:
           | It's the same thing the marvelverse is... a way of referring
           | to all of facebook's products. They're just trying to
           | generate some hype and make their products look more forward
           | thinking.. even though they're exactly the same as always.
        
             | sporkland wrote:
             | Metaverse is a concept originally popularized by Neal
             | Stephenson in his book snowcrash.
             | 
             | It's an online VR based world that is very cool and fun and
             | most people spend there times there instead of the real
             | world.
        
               | rgbrenner wrote:
               | It's a concept originally popularized in Snowcrash, that
               | Facebook is attempting to latch on to as a marketing
               | campaign to make their products seem future looking, but
               | in reality havent changed one bit. To further this
               | marketing effort, they created a VR chat that is a trash
               | product that no one will ever use.
        
             | hallway_monitor wrote:
             | Wow, thank you for this insight. I despise them both.
        
         | ChildOfChaos wrote:
         | "Don't you notice every one of your favorite content creators@
         | 
         | NO! Because I don't care about stupid content creators.
         | 
         | Facebook was never really about content creators, youtube and
         | tiktok are all about that. It's a different thing. Not that I
         | am a Facebook fan either but yes eyeballs are going to youtube
         | and tiktok and other content creators but it's a different
         | business and that is why Facebook is stuck versus these.
        
         | codechad wrote:
        
         | lovefeature wrote:
        
         | maybelsyrup wrote:
         | > And Zuck is very smart. The moment I saw the rebrand to Meta
         | I knew that he saw this day coming perhaps years ago. He knows
         | the next frontier is the meta verse and so he's trying to make
         | Facebook be the epicenter of it.
         | 
         | Imagine believing this
        
         | jamil7 wrote:
         | > He knows the next frontier is the meta verse
         | 
         | Agreed with everything in this comment up until that point.
        
           | AlexandrB wrote:
           | I think it works if you:
           | 
           | s/knows/hopes/
        
         | outside1234 wrote:
         | Agreed - and the regular Facebook site is just awful now - my
         | parents don't even use it
        
       | 00000000005 wrote:
       | Facebook failed to pay the big money to Apple that they should
       | have been paying for years.
       | 
       | If Zuck had been handing Apple $5,000,000,000 per year as google
       | does, then Apple would never have kneecapped Facebook.
       | 
       | Larry and Sergei know how the protection racket works. You pay
       | your dues to the local mob, you get to do business in their
       | street corners.
       | 
       | What do google pay Apple $5b for? Ummm... to be in the search of
       | Safari. Yeah right. They all know google simply pays Apple
       | because they don't want no trouble, so they say "Safari", write a
       | huge cheque, and google gets to keep doing business in Apple
       | devices.
       | 
       | Tim is The Godfather. He who owns the platform owns the city.
       | Everyone must respect and pay their dues, if they want to do
       | business in this city.
       | 
       | Apple has sent Facebook to sleep with the fishes because zuck
       | didn't show no respect and didn't pay no dues.
        
         | wjnc wrote:
         | Since I detect sarcasm, I'm not sure how to respond.
         | 
         | As someone who chooses Apple partly because of the comparative
         | privacy versus Android I'm actually quite happy that they
         | bargain with other parties? It reminiscent of the working of
         | efficient markets. I have a choice. No privacy (Google,
         | Facebook), or a tidbit (Apple, G/F via Apple) or a lot (custom
         | ROM options, drop all G/F/A). For a tidbit of privacy I pay
         | more, but how much I pay more is lowered by the incoming
         | cashflow at Apple due to these arrangements. So there is a
         | cafateria model with a powerful party bargaining on my behalf
         | and in line with my preferences. For me, that's glass half
         | full.
        
           | politelemon wrote:
           | You don't have a choice with Apple, and that's at the crux of
           | the definition of privacy. What you're doing is justifying a
           | specific choice that you've made, by assuming good faith and
           | bad faith with certain companies - take a few minutes to read
           | up on recent news and you can easily see that they do make
           | anti-privacy choices. Their aim is not user privacy, but user
           | lock-in. But convincing us that it's in our best interest is
           | what's called marketing. There is no 'bargaining' going on,
           | there is no cafetaria, nor are your best interests in
           | anyone's minds. It's simply a gray area in which your data is
           | the currency.
           | 
           | Privacy is not achieved through brand loyalty, it can only be
           | achieved through understanding what you've got and taking
           | control of it. It dismays me to see attitudes like this so
           | prevalent in today's privacy conversations, I feel it will be
           | 10 years too late before we collectively realize what a
           | mistake we're making.
        
             | conradev wrote:
             | How does good privacy engineering at the platform level
             | have any effect on lock-in?
             | 
             | It is abundantly clear that Apple loves locking people in,
             | and also clear that they love taunting their advantages
             | over their competitors. But I just don't see how the better
             | engineered platform protections for privacy have anything
             | to do with the lock-in (no network effects, no switching
             | costs)
             | 
             | My favorite example of this is the Find My network: did
             | they totally screw Tile in their own competitive interests?
             | Absolutely. Does their end-to end-encrypted Find My network
             | have state of the art cryptographic design to minimize data
             | collection? Absolutely.
             | 
             | Privacy also has concrete value for Apple. Apple made a
             | fair argument that the Health app is HIPAA compliant
             | because while the backend is nothing special, the syncing
             | is end to end encrypted.
             | 
             | They do make mistakes, and they are a large self-interested
             | corrupt terrible bad corporation, but I am happy that they
             | are pushing the industry forward.
        
             | yladiz wrote:
             | > You don't have a choice with Apple
             | 
             | A choice about what? Your privacy? Privacy is not a choice,
             | it's a right, so if that's what you mean I don't really
             | understand.
        
             | thaway2839 wrote:
             | It's really interesting to see certain Apple users justify
             | how Apple's choices are always the right one (even when
             | they are diametrically opposite to Apple's choice from a
             | few months ago, at which point they also defended the Apple
             | choice as the right one).
             | 
             | And I say this as a long time Apple user, both on macs and
             | iPhones.
        
         | tarsinge wrote:
         | Only true in the US though.
        
         | d12bb wrote:
         | This is double bullshit:
         | 
         | 1. All Apple did was giving users a choice (and they should've
         | done that ages ago). If users didn't mind being tracked, or
         | liked the "more relevant adverts" tracking provides, they would
         | not have opted out.
         | 
         | 2. Google is subject to exactly the same rules as Facebook is.
         | Their apps have to ask for permission to track as Facebook's
         | do, and Safari (which enforces privacy in many ways, too) is
         | the same for google.com as for facebook.com.
         | 
         | They pay Apple for being search provider in Safari and Siri the
         | same way they pay Mozilla, because searches mean data and
         | displayed adverts.
        
           | treis wrote:
           | Google doesn't really have apps though. Their users see ads
           | through the browser and so, from what I understand, are
           | unaffected by the change.
        
             | falcolas wrote:
             | Not counting gmail, calendar, or the docs/drive suite,
             | Google has >12 applications on the app store. Apple's
             | "search" is pretty crappy WRT seeing what a dev has
             | released (or at least the Google LLC "dev"), hence the
             | range.
             | 
             | And ads definitely show up in YouTube and such.
        
               | reaperducer wrote:
               | _Apple 's "search" is pretty crappy WRT seeing what a dev
               | has released_
               | 
               | Click on the dev's name and it shows everything that dev
               | has published.
               | 
               | https://apps.apple.com/us/developer/google-
               | llc/id281956209
        
               | falcolas wrote:
               | I did (on my phone, fwiw), and it only showed 12, and not
               | their big ones.
        
               | reaperducer wrote:
               | Perhaps because on your phone it shows only phone apps?
        
               | falcolas wrote:
               | Well, it didn't show Gmail, Calendar, Drive, Sheets, or
               | Docs. All of which are Google apps available on the
               | phone.
        
               | treis wrote:
               | I didn't say they had no apps. I said they don't really
               | have apps and they don't. Their main product is search
               | and it's accessed through the browser.
               | 
               | If what FB is saying is true then the move by Apple helps
               | Google. There's more or less two options for online
               | advertising. So if companies spend less on FB then
               | they're probably going to spend those dollars with Google
        
               | falcolas wrote:
               | I give you Google, the app:
               | 
               | https://apps.apple.com/us/app/google/id284815942
               | 
               | Google search, in an iOS app. Not everyone uses it, sure,
               | but has over 341k reviews. Facebook, as a point of
               | comparison, only has about 4x more reviews at 1.2M. 4x is
               | a lot, but it's also a lot less than I'd expect over
               | something primarily used in the browser.
        
             | reaperducer wrote:
             | _Google doesn 't really have apps though_
             | 
             | Google has 17 apps for Apple devices.
             | 
             | https://apps.apple.com/us/app/google-one/id1451784328
             | 
             | https://apps.apple.com/us/app/screenwise-meter/id1455562397
             | 
             | https://apps.apple.com/us/app/google/id284815942
             | 
             | https://apps.apple.com/us/app/notable-women-ar/id1425071635
             | 
             | https://apps.apple.com/us/app/just-a-line-draw-in-
             | ar/id13672...
             | 
             | https://apps.apple.com/us/app/google-tasks-get-things-
             | done/i...
             | 
             | https://apps.apple.com/us/app/looker-mobile/id1533498070
             | 
             | https://apps.apple.com/us/app/google-podcasts/id1398000105
             | 
             | https://apps.apple.com/us/app/google-stadia/id1471900213
             | 
             | https://apps.apple.com/us/app/google-fit-activity-
             | tracker/id...
             | 
             | https://apps.apple.com/us/app/google-fi/id1413936031
             | 
             | https://apps.apple.com/us/app/grasshopper-learn-to-
             | code/id13...
             | 
             | https://apps.apple.com/us/app/youtube-music/id1017492454
             | 
             | https://apps.apple.com/us/app/google-keep-notes-and-
             | lists/id...
             | 
             | https://apps.apple.com/us/app/google-maps/id585027354
             | 
             | https://apps.apple.com/us/app/youtube-tv/id1193350206
             | 
             | https://apps.apple.com/us/app/youtube-kids/id936971630
             | 
             | https://apps.apple.com/us/app/youtube-watch-listen-
             | stream/id...
        
           | pessimizer wrote:
           | That's definitely not why they pay Mozilla. Being the default
           | search engine in a browser that a minuscule percentage of the
           | market uses, and then the vast majority of those only use
           | because they're _hostile_ to Google, isn 't worth shit.
           | 
           | If I go to my bodega once a month to spend $80 on sticks of
           | $2 incense, it's because I'm buying drugs.
        
           | oarsinsync wrote:
           | > 1. All Apple did was giving users a choice (and they
           | should've done that ages ago). If users didn't mind being
           | tracked, or liked the "more relevant adverts" tracking
           | provides, they would not have opted out.
           | 
           | The choice existed for a long time. What Apple did was make
           | that choice front and centre for everyone, as opposed to
           | being buried in a settings menu for privacy-conscious people
           | to hunt down.
        
           | strulovich wrote:
           | Part of the issue is the language. Apple used the "ask no to
           | track language", but when it came to their own services chose
           | "turn off personalized ads":
           | 
           | https://9to5mac.com/2021/09/02/apple-personalized-ads-
           | target...
           | 
           | Not saying tracking shouldn't be stopped. But remember Apple
           | is much less privacy aware when it's their wallet.
        
             | brimble wrote:
             | Is the issue the language? It's not clear from the language
             | or the article that Apple's version disables any tracking
             | at all. It seems like two different things.
        
               | thebean11 wrote:
               | How could you possibly server personalized ads without
               | tracking?
        
               | brimble wrote:
               | Why would disabling personalized ads _necessarily_
               | disable tracking? [EDIT] Consider: toggling the display
               | of something does not necessarily change the underlying
               | data, or data collection, behavior.
               | 
               | Why would all data used to personalize ads _have to be_
               | tracking? It could also be things like purchase data from
               | the very service that 's advertising to you. Halting
               | collection--not use for ad personalization, but
               | collection--of that would go beyond what even I would
               | consider tracking (and I think most of what goes on in
               | the ad world today should simply be illegal). It would be
               | possible to personalize ads _only_ based on this kind of
               | thing--in fact, that 's what the article seems to imply
               | is going on, at least in part.
               | 
               | So there are at least two ways that setting might mean
               | something different from one that disables tracking.
        
               | thebean11 wrote:
               | I think we are coming at it from different directions.
               | You need tracking for personalized ads, you don't need
               | personalized ads for tracking.
        
               | shuckles wrote:
               | No you don't need tracking for personalized ads. Apple
               | defines tracking as sharing information about the user
               | between distinct 3rd parties, while it personalizes ads
               | based on your behavior within Apple's own services.
        
               | brimble wrote:
               | Right. Consider:
               | 
               | >>>
               | 
               | What do you do for a living?
               | 
               | "I track animals."
               | 
               | Oh, cool, like you're a hunter or in animal control or
               | something? Trekking all over the wilds, keen eye for
               | detail, grand adventures, lots of mud and amazing
               | stories?
               | 
               | "No, I manage a zoo. I track the zoo animals in a
               | spreadsheet. I sit in an office."
               | 
               | >>>
               | 
               | AFAIK Apple means the hunting kind, when they write
               | "tracking". As in following a user around and watching
               | them while they use services & apps that you don't
               | operate.
        
               | brimble wrote:
               | Sort of. Again, it's possible to personalize ads without
               | tracking, unless tracking means "collecting literally any
               | data, including order history for a logged-in user" or
               | things like selecting ads based on geography for an
               | address _that you provided_ , not even GPS tracking or
               | something like that.
               | 
               | It is entirely possible that the settings do _totally
               | different things_ , so the different language isn't some
               | kind of trick. I think it's _likely_ that picking either
               | of those phrases and using it for both would result in
               | the description of the respective settings being less
               | accurate.
               | 
               | Swap the one that applies to applications to "disable
               | personalized ads", rather than "disable tracking".
               | 
               | But it doesn't do that--does it? It disables (a certain
               | kind of) tracking. The tracking _may not even be used for
               | ads_. Apple has no way to guarantee that. You may _still_
               | see personalized ads based on other data.
               | 
               | Make the Apple one "disable tracking" rather than
               | "disable personalized ads". But the setting _might not do
               | that at all_ , while still disabling personalization. In
               | fact, the ad personalization may not have been based on
               | tracking in the first place, and even if it were,
               | disabling personalization could very well leave the
               | tracking in place.
               | 
               | The accusation was that Apple's describing the same thing
               | two ways to give themselves an advantage, but I'd say the
               | settings _very likely_ do not do the same thing.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | caskstrength wrote:
         | Do you suggest that Google apps on iOS are somehow exempt from
         | new privacy protections?
        
           | shawabawa3 wrote:
           | It wouldn't be that straightforward
           | 
           | Probably what OP is suggesting is that in return for that
           | $5B, Apple will call up Google and say "hey we're adding
           | these new privacy protections, will that be a problem?" and
           | Google will have time in advance to get around them
        
             | alwillis wrote:
             | For Apple, which has a market cap of over _$3 trillion_ ,
             | the $10B from Google is the equivalent of sofa cushion
             | money.
             | 
             | Apple isn't going do any favors for Google for a measly
             | $10B.
             | 
             | It's much more meaningful for Google and Google knows it.
             | For them, it's a bargain, as it gives its advertisers
             | access to customers who actually spend money.
        
               | nsenifty wrote:
               | You're comparing income with market cap. Apple's net
               | income in 2021 was around $100B of which $10B is a
               | significant sum.
        
           | throwawaythekey wrote:
           | Google has an easier time providing targeted ads via search
           | keywords. Facebook users spend most of their time in their
           | feeds which is a relatively weak signal for monetization.
           | 
           | Note that google appears to be acting as though they are
           | effected, you can see this in their push for FLOC/topics (but
           | the impetus for this could be coming from android moreso than
           | search)
        
         | bla3 wrote:
         | This suggests Google should charge FB a few billion per year,
         | lest they implement the same feature in Android. They could
         | spin it as a research partnership to investigate the social
         | effects of platform tracking. As long as partners keep paying,
         | the research can continue, but once they stop paying it's time
         | to act on the research results...
        
           | anovikov wrote:
           | Thing is on Android, hardly anyone pays for everything. No
           | money from iOS, no money... Many people i know say that
           | Facebook ads simply stopped working. You pour in $100K and...
           | nothing happens.
        
         | YXNjaGVyZWdlbgo wrote:
         | dang can you please enforce the rules more? In the last weeks
         | hn is getting overrun with spammy troll accounts splattering
         | conspiracy theories left and right.
        
           | tyrfing wrote:
           | > E-commerce was an area where we saw a meaningful slowdown
           | in growth in Q4. And similarly, we've seen other areas like
           | gaming to be challenged. But on e-commerce, it's quite
           | noticeable -- notable that Google called out, seeing strength
           | in that very same vertical. And so given that we know that
           | e-commerce is one of the most impacted verticals from iOS
           | restrictions, it makes sense that those restrictions are
           | probably part of the explanation for the difference between
           | what they were seeing and what we were seeing.
           | 
           | > ... we believe those restrictions from Apple are designed
           | in a way that carves out browsers from the tracking prompts
           | Apple requires for apps. And so what that means is that
           | search ads could have access to far more third-party data for
           | measurement and optimization purposes than app-based ad
           | platforms like ours.
           | 
           | > So when it comes to using data, you can think of it that
           | it's not really apples-to-apples for us. And as a result, we
           | believe Google Search ad business could have benefited
           | relative to services like ours is based a different set of
           | restrictions from Apple. And given that Apple continue to
           | take billions of dollars a year from Google Search ads, the
           | incentive clearly exists for this policy discrepancy to
           | continue.
           | 
           | Facebook CFO on iOS change effects: advertising business is
           | being driven to Google since they are mostly unaffected by
           | the changes. This is the statement the article would be based
           | on, but with most of the interesting parts left out.
        
           | throwaway4good wrote:
           | This is unfortunately a remarkably well-documented conspiracy
           | theory.
        
           | trollied wrote:
           | Something isn't a conspiracy theory just because it's an
           | opinion that you do not like. I personally found the OPs take
           | interesting, though obviously written a little tongue-in-
           | cheek.
        
             | throwaway4good wrote:
             | The relationship between Google and Apple is outrageous,
             | criminal even. Yet for some reason it hasn't dawned on the
             | Economist. Maybe some clear spoken shitposts on a popular
             | tech site is what it takes.
        
             | YXNjaGVyZWdlbgo wrote:
             | it's a conspiracy theory because he presents it as facts
             | without providing sources for his statements. it's about
             | how not what. yikes.
        
               | alexashka wrote:
               | No.
               | 
               | Google the definition of conspiracy, before presenting
               | your _wrong_ opinion as fact.
               | 
               | Do you even get the irony of what you've just done and
               | I'm sure have been doing for years? Probably not.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | scim-knox-twox wrote:
               | > A conspiracy theory is an explanation for an event or
               | situation that invokes a conspiracy by sinister and
               | powerful groups, often political in motivation, _when
               | other explanations are more probable_.
               | 
               | https://wikiless.org/wiki/Conspiracy_theory?lang=en
               | 
               | It's not a conspiracy when we know that GAFA works
               | together: https://gizmodo.com/google-paid-apple-to-stay-
               | out-of-the-sea...
        
               | YXNjaGVyZWdlbgo wrote:
               | It is because you can't validate it how is it that hard
               | to distinguish between true statements and speculations.
               | The same goes for your sources claims brought up in court
               | are not true statements until they are proven to be
               | factually correct.
        
               | paulcole wrote:
               | You're basically saying every comment here is a
               | conspiracy theory, since (essentially) nobody here
               | provides sources and everybody is convinced they're
               | spewing the unadulterated truth.
               | 
               | By your definition, it's a conspiracy theory for me to
               | say, "I'm sure JFK was shot!" Because I'm saying it as
               | fact without source. But then it's also a conspiracy
               | theory to say, "I'm sure JFK was shot by aliens."
               | 
               | The _what_ is essential in defining a conspiracy theory.
        
               | YXNjaGVyZWdlbgo wrote:
               | It's about how not what at least follow the discussion
               | you are answering. And nobody cares about your definition
               | of conspiracy theories or your assumption of mine, normal
               | human beings open for discourse care about the definition
               | of the term in the general public. You can easily find it
               | in a dictionary of your choice.
        
               | patrec wrote:
               | How about a bit of critical thinking before yelling
               | "Conspiracy!"? Concerning "sources", if Apple and Google
               | are engaged in joint anti-competitive behavior, they'd
               | probably not write press releases about it. But of course
               | there is well-documented precedence of them doing exactly
               | that, being caught and getting a mild slap on the wrist,
               | so it's not a completely outlandish notion to entertain.
               | 
               | As for the officially stated reason: do you really think
               | that there is an alternative search engine provider that
               | Apple would switch to if Google didn't pay them 10
               | figures a year? If so, which one(s)? If not, what are
               | they actually paying for? To mitigate the risk of a
               | second Apple Maps? But is the case for entering the
               | search engine market really remotely as compelling as
               | entering the mapping space?
               | 
               | I'm not saying it's an open and shut case, but the idea
               | that Google essentially pays Apple money a) as a "good-
               | will gesture" b) to give regulators the impression that
               | the search engine market is more competitive than it is
               | seems possible to me. Whereas one of the alternative
               | scenarios proposed here, that Apple would pick duckduckgo
               | otherwise, really does not.
               | 
               | Personally, if I were Sundar, I'd be way more worried
               | about anti-trust or Apple siding too much with the
               | privacy of their users or stepping otherwise on my toes
               | than say duckduckduckgo becoming a serious competitor
               | because Apple anointed them default search provider after
               | I failed to fork over enough money. I'd probably even do
               | my best to keep a bunch of minimally viable competitors
               | around -- not viable enough to ever pose a threat, but
               | viable enough to keep anti-trust at bay for a bit longer.
               | And both duckduckgo and firefox seem to fit that bill
               | perfectly.
        
               | YXNjaGVyZWdlbgo wrote:
               | You are speculating as much as the op does. It's just not
               | based in truthful statements. Ofc everything you and op
               | are rhyming together can be true but at least don't state
               | it as fact like op did.
        
               | pessimizer wrote:
               | Pretend that everyone that you interact with on the
               | internet is expressing their opinion about the facts.
        
           | xvector wrote:
           | I think this was more shitpost than conspiracy.
        
         | ksec wrote:
         | It isn't $5B, it is $10B+. Google's TAC in 2021 was $13B.
        
           | 00000000005 wrote:
           | OK so Google pays Apple around $13,000,000,000 per year.
           | 
           | How much does Facebook pay Apple?
        
             | ksec wrote:
             | A tiny bit with their in App revenue split which Facebook
             | tries to avoid. Although I doubt paying for it make much
             | difference. You can tell Tim Cook and Apple, just like HN
             | hate Facebook and Ads ( Which they have to backtrack and
             | state they dont hate ads ). It is an ideology crash.
        
               | actuator wrote:
               | No, it is not an ideology crash. Apple is perfectly fine
               | serving their own ads for which they are building a
               | targeting profile.
               | 
               | It is an incentive crash. Apple tried iAds before and it
               | didn't work as they couldn't do good personalised ads,
               | this is them keeping the advantage just for them and
               | getting good PR.
               | 
               | Apple is not a saint in this, not even a single bit.
        
         | throwaway4good wrote:
         | 5B? Nah, champ. The price is 15B ...
        
         | nojito wrote:
         | How so?
         | 
         | Safari hides so much info from google search by default. The
         | money google pays apple is strictly for marketing purposes.
        
           | 00000000005 wrote:
        
           | scim-knox-twox wrote:
           | https://gizmodo.com/google-paid-apple-to-stay-out-of-the-
           | sea...
        
             | nojito wrote:
             | I know that story but safari iOS is not like safari on
             | macOS.
        
         | danpalmer wrote:
         | What would that payment be for from Facebook?
         | 
         | Opinions aside, Google are paying for a thing, not just
         | donating money. What would Facebook pay for? I'm not sure that
         | them being a search engine makes sense, I don't think Apple
         | would give up the position of iMessage in favour of Messenger.
         | 
         | (Disclaimer, I work at Google, but don't have any inside info
         | or opinion on the Apple/Google relationship.)
        
           | chunkyguy wrote:
           | Wasn't there a time where you could sign in to facebook at
           | the system level? They could pay to get it back
           | 
           | https://www.cnet.com/how-to/understanding-facebook-
           | integrati...
        
           | hnlmorg wrote:
           | > I'm not sure that them being a search engine makes sense
           | 
           | It really does. Want to search for a local house cleaner or
           | children's entertainer, include Facebook pages with web
           | results. Want to search for things to do in a particular
           | town, include Facebook events with web results about museums
           | and such like.
           | 
           | This is just scratching the surface too. There are lots of
           | possibilities here so I'd be very surprised if Facebook
           | haven't explored this idea.
        
           | 00000000005 wrote:
           | > What would that payment be for from Facebook?
           | 
           | To live.
           | 
           | This is Tim's town and if you think you're doing business and
           | cutting Tim out then you've got $10b concrete boots coming.
        
             | dang wrote:
             | Please stop creating accounts to post unsubstantive
             | comments and flamebait. It destroys what this place is
             | supposed to be for, and will eventually get your main
             | account banned as well.
             | 
             | If you'd please review
             | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and stick
             | to the rules when posting here, we'd appreciate it.
        
             | yokoprime wrote:
             | I'm not sure if you're shitposting or actually replying.
             | Alphabet pays Apple to be the default search-engine in
             | Safari. Thats it, Google are not exempt from Apples privacy
             | policies. Google dragged their feed after the iOS 15
             | privacy changes, but in the end had to cave.
        
               | Iolaum wrote:
               | Apple's privacy policies are not set in stone. They are
               | more like pray I don't alter the deal further.
               | 
               | ATM only Apple can stop Apple from deciding they want no
               | tracking done by search engine providers in iOS apps.
        
             | gls2ro wrote:
             | I think Google as the default search engine on Safari is a
             | big win.
             | 
             | How is that just an excuse to hand over money?
             | 
             | Do think that putting DuckDuckGo as default in Safari will
             | not have any influence in either DuckDuckGo or Google
             | market share?
        
               | patrec wrote:
               | Right, like as without those 5B Apple would screw up its
               | products by handing over all search to some guy with a
               | Bing scraping Perl script cosplaying as a search engine.
        
         | Foivos wrote:
         | Then, why does google pay big money to Firefox?
        
           | 00000000005 wrote:
           | To avoid a competition lawsuit from the justice department.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | xvector wrote:
             | It's rackets all the way down!
        
               | matt_s wrote:
               | I think you mean: Its Webkits all the way down
        
         | GeekyBear wrote:
         | Users have the same privacy options with Google's apps that
         | they have with Facebook's apps.
        
           | disgruntledphd2 wrote:
           | But Google are much, much less dependent on apps because they
           | get all that sweet juicy search data from each iPhone (which
           | they can then use to track you across their apps, potentially
           | (this is possible to implement, I have no idea if they do
           | it)).
        
             | GeekyBear wrote:
             | So antitrust regulators should break up Google?
        
         | samwillis wrote:
         | There is an enormous deference between Search Ads (such as
         | those in Google search results) and display advertising such as
         | Facebook and Googles Display Network.
         | 
         | I assure you Google are paying Apple to be the default search
         | engine exactly because it's basically _a licence to print
         | money_.
         | 
         | It has nothing to do with display ads.
         | 
         | If Facebook had a search engine they would bid against Google
         | for that role, but as it appears to be the case there is a
         | Google/Facebook gentlemens agreement to not compete in that
         | area.
        
           | ksec wrote:
           | >There is an enormous deference between Search Ads (such as
           | those in Google search results) and display advertising such
           | as Facebook and Googles Display Network.
           | 
           | I assure you HN does not understand anything about Ads. Ever
           | since I realise HN had some deep misunderstanding with Online
           | ads, I have been stating this difference for over 3 years.
           | The only thing I got on HN was all ads are evil. Targeting
           | Ads, Tracking Ads, Search Ads, or the latest buzzword
           | surveillance capitalism.
        
           | catach wrote:
           | Have to wonder if that agreement would have survived a
           | competitive Google Plus.
        
             | rob74 wrote:
             | Well yeah, Google tried to build a social network (actually
             | several) and failed; Facebook didn't try to build a search
             | engine - that wouldn't fit into their business model of
             | sucking you in and driving you to sign up to Facebook. I
             | mean, after they bought Oculus, they even started requiring
             | a FB account to use the device, but they couldn't have done
             | that for a search engine, nobody would have used it. But
             | lots of others did, and failed (or at least couldn't
             | compete with Google).
             | 
             | So we can conclude that neither building a successful
             | social network nor building a successful search engine is
             | easy :)
        
               | bagacrap wrote:
               | but fb does have a search engine? Admittedly it only
               | searches for content on their own site, but as you note
               | the strategy has been to make the walled garden so
               | expansive that users would never want to leave (or be
               | able to --- see India). Building a general purpose web
               | search engine would be to give up on the "own everything"
               | strategy.
        
               | thaway2839 wrote:
               | Yet Google tries really hard to get you to log in, to the
               | point where if you log into the browser to be able to
               | sync your bookmarks and settings, you will be logged into
               | your Google search as well.
        
             | Iolaum wrote:
             | Given the "success" of Google+ and Bing I am not sure if it
             | is a gentleman's agreement rather than an endeavor not
             | worth the investment.
        
               | reallydontask wrote:
               | Frankly, I would be surprised if it weren't both
        
           | throwaway4good wrote:
           | FB could surely muster the engineering resources to create a
           | search engine that matches what Google has today.
           | 
           | I think OP is right, it is pride that is holding Zuck back.
        
             | ineedasername wrote:
             | _> FB could surely muster the engineering resources to
             | create a search engine that matches what Google has today._
             | 
             | I wouldn't be so sure. Bing is an excellent counter example
             | to that statement. And not just because (from my
             | experience) it doesn't produce the same quality of results.
             | It's also about user adoption. MS built a reasonable, if
             | not clearly superior alternative to Google and spend
             | enormous sums of money marketing it, making it the default
             | option on the default browser installed on millions of new
             | PC's each year, and is has single-digit market share.
             | 
             | Facebook doesn't have those inroads on the PC market to
             | leverage. They'd have to build something so much better
             | than Google that it would make Google look like Yahoo when
             | Google first arrived on the scene. At which point Google
             | could probably stop sandbagging their own search efforts
             | that favor ads space over results and make up any lost
             | ground pretty quickly.
             | 
             | I'm also not confident in Facebook's ability to create high
             | quality new products anymore. The most recent big successes
             | have come from acquisitions. I suppose they _might_ be able
             | to buy DDG, but they 'd almost immediately lose all of its
             | users. And unless the still wanted to build their own
             | actual engine, they'd have to rely on the goodwill of MS to
             | continue getting most results via Bing's engine.
        
         | xvector wrote:
         | This is amazing! I love HN.
        
       | yalogin wrote:
       | I haven't followed the whole apple privacy push and how it
       | impacted advertising. However, isn't everyone always logged into
       | Facebook? If so they already know who is using it and any
       | interaction will tell them exactly who used it. How does the
       | Apple's platform level change effect them? Am I missing
       | something?
        
         | strikelaserclaw wrote:
         | i had this same question, maybe someone can explain.
        
         | willio58 wrote:
         | It's not Facebook knowing who used their app, it's restrictions
         | on what data Facebook can pull from your phone. It's also
         | making it clear to users how often this data is being fetched,
         | and the option to opt out of data collection is new too.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | lovefeature wrote:
        
       | calebm wrote:
       | This is quantitative proof that Facebook is extracting value
       | directly from people's private data.
        
       | paxys wrote:
       | Snap is still somehow up 50% today. Google is similarly doing
       | great. The problem is more on Facebook's end than Apple's. TikTok
       | did way more damage than Apple ever could.
        
         | curious_cat_163 wrote:
         | What they need to realize is that there are advantages _and_
         | responsibilities that come with sheer scale. Their apps are
         | rife with misinformation and gaslighting.
         | 
         | Facebook has become associated with argument, fight and social
         | misery in the minds of their consumers. They need to take some
         | substantial steps to change that. Merely wishing these issues
         | away with posts, launching new products or changing the company
         | name does not cut it.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | colinmhayes wrote:
         | Snap still down 11% this month
        
       | alanlammiman wrote:
       | The problem isn't just Apple's action on IDFA. It's that Facebook
       | seems to be so poorly managed on some fronts that its reactions,
       | rather than mitigating problems, has caused further harm. For
       | example - in a rushed effort to get their privacy issues in
       | order, they are deactivating the live facebook integrations of
       | customers based on cursory/mistaken/possibly machine-based
       | readings of their privacy policies.
       | 
       | They did that to us yesterday: https://shared-
       | crater-f3a.notion.site/Facebook-is-Breaking-A...
       | 
       | We spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on facebook app ads per
       | month. We can deal with IDFA giving way to more aggregated
       | attribution (we don't want to track individuals - we just want to
       | measure if the ads we paid for led to sales). But facebook
       | breaking our app in production because they can't be bothered
       | doing their job properly is very serious. It can't be solved by
       | reducing ad spend, only by removing their SDK from our app.
       | 
       | If this is also happening to many other developers right now,
       | that, more than the Q4 results or the IDFA issue itself, could be
       | causing the drop in the share price.
       | 
       | In fact, if you look at the Q4 results, the earnings miss was
       | more because of growth in G&A (which grew by 3 percentage-points
       | of revenue if I'm not mistaken) than because of a top-line
       | slowdown. And if you read the comments as to what made G&A grow,
       | it's 'legal costs'.
        
         | bagacrap wrote:
         | "we don't want to track individuals" --- right, but each ad FB
         | places has a lower conversion rate if they don't know as much
         | about the user, so while your goal may not be tracking per se,
         | tracking does get you the same sales in fewer placements, and
         | Facebook can sell those saved placements to other buyers
         | 
         | the fact that they're cracking down on partner privacy in a
         | hamfisted way surely doesn't help matters but I can't see how
         | angry devs are driving the share price down
        
           | alanlammiman wrote:
           | I agree with your first point in the sense that having
           | individualised targeting data necessarily improves
           | advertising by some amount vs. merely contextual and
           | aggregate data. For our specific case I'm not convinced that
           | amount is as big as some people imagine it is, but I haven't
           | found a good way to test that precisely given that facebook
           | doesn't really have a "just give me a representative sample
           | of your audience in this region" targeting feature (wish it
           | did) to compare with the targeted alternatives. In our case,
           | app ads that now use SKAN (the Apple solution that provides
           | aggregated attribution) seem to be working well enough - that
           | was my point.
           | 
           | Regarding your second point, yes, I agree - it's not obvious.
           | Assuming this did indeed affect many developers like us and
           | that it happened to everyone at the same time (which may not
           | be the case - that it happened to us and that it coincided
           | with their earnings report may have just been a coincidence -
           | I haven't seen a mass outcry on twitter or anything), I was
           | wondering whether it might be hedge funds that buy/track
           | aggregated ad spend or attribution data, perhaps from MMPs or
           | media buying agencies. I know they buy app download data from
           | the likes of App Annie, but don't know if equivalent data is
           | available and timely for ad spend. In any case, my point is
           | more that this is illustrative of how they make bad
           | situations worse for themselves.
        
         | simpss wrote:
         | > we don't want to track individuals - we just want to measure
         | if the ads we paid for led to sales
         | 
         | well. if your goal isn't tracking individuals, then why are you
         | attaching unique ID's (in cookies) to track individuals on your
         | website?
         | 
         | And I'm not talking about third-party cookies disguised as
         | first-party.
         | 
         | logglytrackingsession (lifetime: session)
         | 
         | notion_experiment_device_id (lifetime: 1 year)
         | 
         | Both are unique to a specific user and are used to identify a
         | single individual. The first one is short-lived, but obviously
         | meant for tracking and the second one can be used for tracking,
         | identifies a single individual and is long-lived.
         | 
         | edit: turning off my adblocker, some more appear.
         | 
         | _ga, _ga_4GMCF7E1GC, intercom-id-gpfdrxfd, notion_browser_id,
         | amp_af43d4
         | 
         | none of these are listed or explained in your privacy
         | policy.[1]
         | 
         | [1] - https://shared-crater-f3a.notion.site/Sticky-Privacy-
         | Policy-...
        
           | alanlammiman wrote:
           | Yes like the peer reply said that's Notion, not us. But good
           | point, another thing to keep in mind if you try to use the
           | "Share to the web" notion feature.
        
             | simpss wrote:
             | the _ga stuff isn't Notion, but the rest is, yes.
             | 
             | My real point is, if you use a service to provide your own
             | service, you give them your blessing to do whatever they
             | want with your brand. This includes facebook and their
             | tracking scripts.
             | 
             | Thus we need to audit what our service providers are doing
             | and limit their impact once we've completed the evaluation,
             | making sure they don't alter the deal later.
             | 
             | Also tracking ad conversions is as simple as using a unique
             | parameter per campaign, when buying the add. Just append
             | `?campaign=facebook_campaign-name_202202` to your link and
             | that's enough to measure the ads effectiveness. No need to
             | attach unique ID's to users, sessions etc... Aggregates
             | keep the users anonymous and give you enough actionable
             | insight.
        
           | sa1 wrote:
           | One could choose a better host than Notion, but that's
           | Notion's fault.
        
             | alanlammiman wrote:
             | Yes, agree, we wanted to try it out for this because we
             | like it for work and it was quick to write up and publish
             | and we thought it might be more flexible for writing up
             | documentation, linking, etc. But we are not satisfied
             | either: Very slow to load, formatting is fiddly and
             | imperfect. We will have to use something else.
        
       | btdmaster wrote:
       | This "privacy push" is only a change with respect to IDFA --
       | something specifically built by Apple to compete with Google's
       | advertising ID. Opting out system-wide was already possible, but
       | unsurprisingly its existence is not something that's well-known
       | since Apple has established themselves as Goddess of Privacy:
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Identifier_for_Advertisers.
       | 
       | To me, this is closer to "Apple spying technology becomes opt-in
       | and no one uses it anymore".
        
       | scim-knox-twox wrote:
       | > For years, Apple helped by offering an "identifier for
       | advertisers" (IDFA), giving advertisers a way to track people's
       | behaviour on its devices. (...) But last year, citing privacy
       | concerns, Apple turned off IDFA by default and forced apps to ask
       | people if they want to be tracked.
       | 
       | And everyone praised Apple for it. But if Apple really care about
       | privacy, they'd never allowed for IDFA in the first place...
       | 
       | > Google will soon offer most users of Android, its mobile
       | operating system, the ability to opt out of ad tracking.
       | 
       | I'll believe it when they pass some independent audits from EU
       | countries xD
        
         | gjsman-1000 wrote:
         | Apple invented IDFA at the time as a compromise to prevent
         | companies from building much more complicated and invasive
         | tracking systems of their own.
         | 
         | But of course they did anyway, Apple's ability to control those
         | systems increased, and so it was time to stop providing it so
         | easily.
        
         | FearlessNebula wrote:
         | Why does Facebook even need the IDFA? Isn't your Facebook
         | account UUID also a unique ID that only you have? It's not like
         | people are browsing Facebook without logging in.
        
           | ajayyy wrote:
           | to link between the facebook app and other apps with the
           | facebook ads sdk
        
             | FearlessNebula wrote:
             | They can't use your Facebook account or something else for
             | that? I'm pretty ignorant about ad tech, it's something I'd
             | like to learn more about.
        
               | babypuncher wrote:
               | So here's how IDFA works.
               | 
               | User logs in to the Facebook app, and Facebook ties the
               | user's IDFA to their Facebook account.
               | 
               | User opens non-Facebook app X that uses the Facebook SDK
               | for ads/tracking. App X sends the IDFA to Facebook, who
               | then looks it up in their database and sees it on your
               | account. They can now tie all user activity tracked by
               | app X to the user's Facebook account.
               | 
               | Without IDFA, this kind of cross-app tracking becomes
               | considerably more difficult.
        
               | FearlessNebula wrote:
               | Great explanation. Do you know of any resources where I
               | can learn more about this? I find it really interesting.
        
       | unixbane wrote:
        
       | zahma wrote:
       | Apple knows where the future of technology is going, and Meta is
       | getting in the way. Meta, appropriately renamed to reflect the
       | trend toward augmented and virtual reality, would eventually
       | become a threat to Apple's walled garden business model. Apple
       | gives lip service to privacy so long as it attracts users to
       | their platform. However the moment we're in is when the their
       | invasion of privacy is meant to benefit their vision for keeping
       | a customer totally content from home, to work, to play; they have
       | a service for everything, and the data with which they have
       | determined hidden markets, pain points, and markets of desire is
       | coming at a cost for Facebook/Meta.
       | 
       | In the future, whether that's 5, 10, or 20 years, the biggest
       | companies will produce their own platforms of walled garden
       | experiences. Meta isn't there yet and has suffered a setback, but
       | the reports that Meta is trying to poach Apple devs is telling
       | about where this is all headed. The "metaverse" is nascent and
       | mockable, but my kid will probably grow up in it just like I grew
       | up on AIM, chat rooms, and texting.
        
         | 52-6F-62 wrote:
         | Do you think the past 2 years of digital-only communications
         | has really enticed kids into the arms of Facebook/the like and
         | their live-your-life-in-a-headset plan?
         | 
         | I get a sense of the opposite.
         | 
         | Bloody cassette tapes and boomboxes are back in style. It's not
         | just a gimmick. Kids are nostalgic for a past they didn't even
         | know--one without such intense and obligatory interconnection--
         | one where they can run around and get dirty and mess up and not
         | have it broadcast to everyone and monetized by international
         | corporations.
         | 
         | I don't blame them.
        
           | sfink wrote:
           | Ironically, I think they're looking for (and finding) a life
           | with _more_ interconnection by rejecting one with  "such
           | intense and obligatory interconnection" as you put it well.
           | 
           | I guess it's the natural evolution of things:
           | 
           | 1. we seek connectedness. 2. we invent a set of reductionist
           | mechanisms for achieving connectedness 3. we discover that
           | the reductionist aspect really matters and the connectedness
           | we've achieved is hollow and fake 4. we (or rather our heirs
           | since we're too stubborn to change) adapt to the new reality
           | and build some degree of real connectedness on top of the old
           | and a warped version of the new.
           | 
           | "warped" meaning either "adapted to actual needs" or
           | "perverted to serve unintended purposes" depending on whether
           | your interests are being served or not.
        
       | vincentmarle wrote:
       | As the Dutch say: a cat that is backed into a corner, makes
       | unpredictable jumps. And Zuckerberg is one really smart cat, with
       | a lot of money at his disposal. So I wouldn't rule him out yet.
        
       | isodev wrote:
       | All Apple did was give users the choice. Users choosing to deny
       | Facebook the permission to share their data? That's entirely on
       | Facebook.
        
         | hotpotamus wrote:
         | I see this in the thread but I have to say that I disagree a
         | bit. I'm certainly glad Apple gave users a choice, but you have
         | to consider "the tyranny of the default" which is a great
         | phrase I think. Most people will simply use the default option,
         | so Apple's choice of default says something.
        
           | scarface74 wrote:
           | The default is to ask you with buttons that are the same
           | size. You can specifically go into settings and disable
           | tracking for all apps. But it isn't the default.
        
           | nickthegreek wrote:
           | If they tyranny of the default is to protect my privacy, I
           | see no tyranny at all.
        
             | hotpotamus wrote:
             | I just like the phrase. Tyranny probably brings along a bad
             | assumption, but it really just means that most people will
             | stick with the default. It's something I learned
             | independently, though it had been realized many times
             | before I did. I'm also happy with the outcome in this case.
        
               | travisporter wrote:
               | Tyranny definitely has a negative connotation
        
               | hotpotamus wrote:
               | I agree, but default connotes that you are able to change
               | it. Maybe it's that sort of built in contradiction that
               | appeals to me.
        
           | ShamelessC wrote:
           | Right and the previous default was to allow all tracking.
        
             | OzCrimson wrote:
             | Which never should have been the default.
             | 
             | I don't want to be included in something that I never asked
             | to be part of, and then have to put in the effort to get
             | out.
             | 
             | This is one of the things that is so upsetting: most of the
             | industry puts it on the consumer to get out rather than
             | come in. I often look at the list of third-parties when a
             | website says I can opt out. There are often over 300 third
             | parties that I would have to opt out of one at a time.
             | 
             | That's just plain abusive.
        
           | isodev wrote:
           | There is no default, all users get a prompt if they want to
           | allow Facebook to get their data or not.
        
         | driverdan wrote:
         | It shouldn't even be a choice. The whole concept of IDFA is
         | incredibly anti-consumer. It shouldn't exist.
        
       | asiachick wrote:
       | I find it sad that Google's response to privacy is FLoC / Topics
       | API instead of just embracing privacy like Apple. I know Google
       | is an ad company. Still, they mostly control both Android and
       | Chrome which means if they followed Apple's example on privacy
       | they wouldn't be losing much of competitive advantage because if
       | both Android and Chrome were privacy oriented that means there'd
       | be no OS where some competitor could track. In other words, it
       | still seems like they'd be #1 if they switched to content based
       | ads and context (search) but zero tracking.
        
       | dmitriid wrote:
       | > Apple's privacy push cost Meta $10B
       | 
       | It's a false narrative that Facebook is pushing out: "It' snot us
       | that are bad, it's this big bad Apple who are hurting our poor
       | business".
        
       | 1024core wrote:
       | Archive link: https://archive.ph/cyxRR
        
       | gigatexal wrote:
       | How can they make that number 10x bigger hrmm
        
       | d12bb wrote:
       | Nice how Zuck said $10bn in the analysts call with nothing to
       | back it up, but the whole press jumps on it. Apple is not
       | Facebook's problem, all they did was giving users a choice, which
       | should have happened ages ago. So Facebook just says Apple kills
       | our business without ever thinking that maybe users don't like
       | the way they do business. If they did, they wouldn't opt out...
        
         | ineedasername wrote:
         | What would be his motive for saying revenue would be $10B less
         | than previous trends would predict? They posted record revenue
         | again in 2021, so it doesn't look like he's trying to cast a
         | scapegoat for stagnant revenue.
        
           | d12bb wrote:
           | According to what I read (not first hand, of course), he said
           | that 10bn _because of Apple 's decision_. That's a different
           | thing than just saying 10bn, and to pressure Apple to let
           | loose on privacy seems motivation enough to me.
        
           | bagacrap wrote:
           | with my tinfoil hat on -- planned stock buybacks?
        
         | throw0101a wrote:
         | > _Nice how Zuck said $10bn in the analysts call with nothing
         | to back it up, but the whole press jumps on it._
         | 
         | If Zuck knowingly gave investors bad guidance, I don't think
         | that would go over well with the SEC:
         | 
         | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SEC_Rule_10b-5#Forward-
         | looking...
         | 
         | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forward-looking_statement
        
           | 1024core wrote:
           | _Wilson Sonsini (the consiglieri to the Valley CEOs) has
           | entered the chat.._
        
           | ARandumGuy wrote:
           | Yeah, the CEO of a company saying numbers on official
           | communication to investors is pretty compelling evidence on
           | its own, especially if it's bad news. Executives don't
           | generally lie about specifics to their investors, unless
           | they're doing something completely fraudulent. And if you
           | think that's the case for Facebook, you're going to need more
           | evidence then just a gut feeling.
        
             | bduerst wrote:
             | Not to mention supporting data for announcements like these
             | tend to come up in discovery requests for lawsuits so I
             | highly doubt they'd make such a definitive statement w/o
             | the points to back it up.
        
       | ajsnigrutin wrote:
        
         | xboxnolifes wrote:
         | Eh, the picture in the article seems to actually be a better
         | picture of him than a lot of articles use. That being said, I
         | think the biggest issue is his eye brows are very thin and
         | fair, which combined with his pale skin, lips, and no facial
         | hair gives his face very few defining features.
        
         | pestatije wrote:
         | It's a known effect. The older you get, the more difficult your
         | true persona to disguise.
        
         | mattkevan wrote:
         | He looks utterly haunted.
         | 
         | It's tough to have sympathy for him, but if I'd built a website
         | to rate women at my uni for a laugh, then accidentally found
         | myself in charge of one of the world's most powerful companies
         | that's destroying society from the inside out - and personally
         | one of the world's most hated people, I'd look pretty haunted
         | too.
        
       | hollowdene wrote:
       | There's a whole ecosystem of businesses that rely on Facebook
       | that are going to start hurting a lot over the next few years.
       | 
       | I used to work at a publisher where 80% of their website traffic
       | came from Facebook. They haven't seen audience growth in years
       | and their audience is skewing older and older, which is bad for
       | their advertising business
       | 
       | Businesses like that are going to get steadily squeezed both by
       | Facebook's declining audience share and Facebook's own efforts to
       | change what people see.
        
         | iamacyborg wrote:
         | > They haven't seen audience growth in years and their audience
         | is skewing older and older, which is bad for their advertising
         | business
         | 
         | Older people have more money to spend and are therefore worth
         | more to advertisers.
        
         | altdataseller wrote:
         | Yeah publishers like BuzzFeed are in deep trouble, as less ppl
         | are discovering content on FB
        
         | mtberatwork wrote:
         | > There's a whole ecosystem of businesses that rely on Facebook
         | that are going to start hurting a lot over the next few years.
         | 
         | Starting? Did these publishers not learn anything from the
         | whole Facebook Video debacle? [1] Also, who at these companies
         | thinks tying their core business to a single, third party is a
         | good idea?
         | 
         | [1] https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/17/17989712/facebook-
         | inaccu...
        
           | hollowdene wrote:
           | Video on Facebook is still very big, though. A lot of
           | publishers have taken to recycling TikTok videos and turning
           | them into compilations for Facebook and Instagram. It's all
           | low quality stuff, but it works. It's hugely ironic that some
           | of the most popular content on Facebook's platforms is coming
           | from TikTok.
        
         | nottorp wrote:
         | > their audience is skewing older and older
         | 
         | Been reading that facebook is out of fashion for the young uns
         | for several years, way before any privacy changes on part of
         | anyone.
         | 
         | Also, question: how do they know their audience's average age?
         | From invasive tracking?
        
         | Nextgrid wrote:
         | Good riddance? People will keep finding & buying things they
         | need.
         | 
         | If nobody's buying anything from these businesses without
         | invasive advertising & tracking then maybe whatever goods they
         | were selling aren't actually necessary?
         | 
         | Of course there is nuance and edge cases to this, but in
         | general I wouldn't be surprised if society and the planet was
         | better off once we stop producing useless garbage.
        
           | missedthecue wrote:
           | I don't know... I've seen some interesting products thanks to
           | Facebook that I wouldn't have otherwise.
           | 
           | Life would be pretty boring if we all only bought what we
           | need.
        
             | OzCrimson wrote:
             | The question is more about the trade-off.
             | 
             | 1. I see an ad for some really nice pens. COOL! 2. I go to
             | a website that allows me to opt out of tracking but I'd
             | have to opt out of their 300 affiliates one at a time. 3.
             | The privacy policies that state: we do not honor do-not-
             | track signals because we don't know if it was the user or a
             | browser default.
             | 
             | For me: not worth the tradeoff.
        
             | troyvit wrote:
             | That seems to imply that we need to buy stuff to create
             | excitement in life. Is that what you meant?
        
               | missedthecue wrote:
               | No, but buying stuff makes me happy.
        
           | chillage wrote:
           | I don't think you've ever started a company with a new
           | product. What if you make the world's best cheese grater.
           | Nobody knows about it. You don't have connections to
           | supermarkets. Smaller stores don't want to carry your niche
           | item. You have $5000 budget to get your cheese grater out.
           | How do you let people know about it?
           | 
           | Online targetted advertising is basically the current
           | established way to find those people who actually would care
           | about your special cheese grater and start to get your
           | business going. If you're looking at alternatives those would
           | be either untargetted online advertising (incredibly
           | inefficient, only people who don't care about cheese graters
           | would see your ads and that's your $5000 down the toilet) or
           | real world advertising like... Door to door salesmen? Or take
           | out fliers in your local newspaper? That's what people used
           | to do
           | 
           | If you feel cheese graters are useless and somehow deserve to
           | remain unbought, then replace it with any other item which
           | does match your bar for utility value.
        
             | jjulius wrote:
             | I still don't care. My privacy shouldn't be forced to be
             | sacrificed just because you decided to make a cheese grater
             | that's better than every other cheese grater in existence.
             | 
             | >If you feel cheese graters are useless and somehow deserve
             | to remain unbought, then replace it with any other item
             | which does match your bar for utility value.
             | 
             | I am doing this for nearly everything I can think of, and
             | my privacy wins every single time.
        
               | chillage wrote:
               | This is off topic, I was responding to OP's statement
               | that online ads are always useless
               | 
               | You may well find that any societal usefulness is offset
               | by your own principles, whether that's privacy or
               | aversion to tech or aversion to capitalism or aversion to
               | marketing or aversion to small businesses or what have
               | you. Can't argue with principles, and I won't try. The
               | topic though is whether there is any societal usefulness
               | or not.
        
               | jjulius wrote:
               | In a thread that is broadly about giving users the choice
               | in how their personal data is tracked, analyzed, and
               | utilized for the sake of ads, how is my comment off-
               | topic? I mean, OP posited that perhaps we're better off
               | without companies whose goods rely on targeted/invasive
               | advertising, you provided the perspective of someone who
               | might really rely on that sort of advertising, and I
               | suggested that my right to privacy should not be
               | superseded by someone's "need" (though I think "desire"
               | would be more apt there) to get the word out about their
               | product.
               | 
               | Privacy is incredibly useful to society, as is
               | advertising I suppose, so I'm not quite sure how you can
               | have a conversation about targeted advertising's societal
               | usefulness without also talking about the impact it has
               | to other things that are useful to society, eg privacy,
               | that that advertising depends on.
        
               | chillage wrote:
               | Fair enough, it was relevant to the topic of the thread,
               | albeit not my comment. Apologies
        
               | gbear605 wrote:
               | Societal usefulness is not defined in a vacuum - it's
               | fundamentally based on the principles of everyone in the
               | society. And judging by the people who chose not to share
               | data with Facebook, society is better off without the
               | targeted ads.
        
             | nonameiguess wrote:
             | What the heck is the world's best cheese grater? Some
             | products are effectively "finished" and the best there is
             | already exists and we don't need your new business.
             | 
             | Traditionally, cookware and kitchenware makers targeted
             | restaurant buyers. If you think you have a great product,
             | go to a restaurant conference. Everyone there has publicly
             | expressed an interest in what you're selling without
             | requiring a global corporate panopticon.
        
             | AlexandrB wrote:
             | I think this covers how it's _supposed_ to work, but the
             | reality is far messier and worse. In particular, the
             | hypothetical cheese grater manufacturer would probably be
             | have to pay Google to advertise on their own brand name
             | adword so a generic competitor doesn 't steal customers
             | that already _know_ about their great cheese graters. Oh,
             | and about 90% of the people who see your cheese grater ads
             | would be people who just bought one of your cheese graters.
             | Even worse, cheesegraterreviews.com would be paid off by
             | your (larger) competitors to review their cheese graters
             | better and this site has much better SEO than
             | forums.graterenthusiasts.com so they would list higher in
             | organic cheese grater search.
             | 
             | All of this is to say that targeted advertising for niche,
             | high-quality brands is only viable (at least if you're
             | targeting someone like _me_ ) in an environment where
             | search isn't beshitted by SEO, Google doesn't run a
             | trademark protection racket, and reviews aren't 90% noise.
             | Unfortunately, that's not the world we find ourselves in.
             | At this point I'm more likely to just go to the kitchen
             | store and physically examine cheese graters to find one I
             | like than relying on the internet.
        
               | chillage wrote:
               | You are right of course, it's not a perfect situation
               | and, yes, many times may still not be able to get your
               | cheese grater off the ground. My question remains though
               | - if you are not allowed targeted advertising, what
               | practical alternatives do you have to mass market your
               | useful product?
               | 
               | We are not looking at this from the point of view of your
               | personal preference where you would rather the product
               | was in a store already, but from the point of view of a
               | legitimate, useful small business which does not have
               | access to a store and which is trying to match their
               | product to consumers.
        
               | pseudalopex wrote:
               | > if you are not allowed targeted advertising, what
               | practical alternatives do you have to mass market your
               | useful product?
               | 
               | Contextual advertising.
        
             | uncomputation wrote:
             | We should advertise cheese graters to people who search
             | "good cheese graters" instead of trying to track people
             | across the web panopticon-style and cross reference if they
             | are a) moving houses b) making a cheese-based dish c)
             | friends with chefs or cooks d) planning a dinner party e)
             | physically located in a kitchen goods store.
        
         | Lio wrote:
         | Really what you're saying is that there's a whole ecosystem of
         | businesses that depend on unavoidable surveillance.
         | 
         | All Apple have done is allow users to say no.
         | 
         | They haven't even stopped anyone opting into surveillance if
         | they want to. It just turns out that, when given the choice,
         | people don't like being snooped on.
        
           | hollowdene wrote:
           | I agree. Some businesses are addicted to Facebook and the
           | data it provides, but they certainly have no right to it.
        
           | streamofdigits wrote:
           | this seems to be the main new data point that is now evident
           | for all to see
           | 
           | I mean it is sort of obvious to anybody not captured and with
           | basic morals but such is the allure of greed that for ages
           | people were cynically and hypocritically pretending otherwise
        
         | YXNjaGVyZWdlbgo wrote:
         | and that's ok.
        
         | yokoprime wrote:
         | > There's a whole ecosystem of businesses that rely on Facebook
         | that are going to start hurting a lot over the next few years.
         | 
         | Good riddance, what a bunch of bottom feeders.
        
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