[HN Gopher] Five Levels of Hype
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Five Levels of Hype
        
       Author : snailletters
       Score  : 134 points
       Date   : 2022-01-20 10:55 UTC (3 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (johannesklingebiel.de)
 (TXT) w3m dump (johannesklingebiel.de)
        
       | h2odragon wrote:
       | Nicely observed. This has more to do with how people think than
       | how the world works; which means that no step of the hype train
       | here needs to be connected to reality in any way. The product
       | doesn't have to even _exist_ to benefit from hype; that 's how
       | religions and dancing plagues happen.
        
         | PebblesRox wrote:
         | More on dancing plagues for the unfamiliar:
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dancing_plague_of_1518
        
       | saltmeister wrote:
        
       | Nuzzerino wrote:
       | I feel like this article itself is overhyped. I don't really see
       | anything ground-breaking here, and the author doesn't really
       | elaborate on why the examples fit into the arbitrary categories
       | given.
       | 
       | > This categorization is intended to help people better
       | understand which form of hype they're confronted with.
       | 
       | > I hope this categorization is helpful for you to understand
       | which form of hype you're confronted with.
       | 
       | But to what end? No mention of what you can actually do with this
       | information. I guess it's useful if you want to try to sound like
       | the smartest person in the room when explaining it to average
       | people who only dabble in keeping up with tech trends. They
       | probably won't question you. The fact that the draft image went
       | viral on Twitter is case in point.
       | 
       | I'd even venture to say that this probably deserves a flag.
        
       | derbOac wrote:
       | I like this for several reasons, mostly because I like people
       | trying to be somewhat concrete and quantitative about ideas that
       | have a lot of saliency but tend to be thrown around only
       | conceptually. The scale also makes some sense to be based on
       | experience.
       | 
       | I'm not sure the ratings of all the examples are quite right;
       | some of them I think might be over or underhyped more than the
       | author proposes. This isn't too big of a deal to me though, as it
       | seems more like misapplication of the scale rather than the scale
       | itself.
       | 
       | The other thing I might suggest is that I'm not sure the 3-4-5
       | levels are all that distinct, especially 4 and 5.
       | 
       | Most importantly along these lines, my experience is that the
       | "othering" level can happen well within the realm of 3 and 4. so
       | although I agree that the "othering" phenomenon occurs, I don't
       | see it as distinct from 3 and 4, it's just that the magnitude of
       | it increases as you go up in hype. "Othering" seems like another
       | component dimension, along with present vs future focus and
       | empirical basis for claims.
       | 
       | So something like this with levels 3-5 compressed, or maybe just
       | 4-5, makes a lot of sense to me, like it's something you could
       | maybe actually apply in some kind of scientific study.
        
       | eric_cc wrote:
       | > Examples here are (again) the cryptocurrency scene which has
       | been pretty good at othering critics as "no-coiners" or lately
       | with the phrase "have fun staying poor".
       | 
       | I'm somebody that spends a good deal of time thinking deeply on
       | cryptocurrencies and the implications to society. I believe they
       | a positive, revolutionary step in the right direction of human
       | liberty. And I'll gladly acknowledge that it's still speculative
       | until it's not.
       | 
       | But crypto, like any other movement, attracts total scumbags.
       | It's unfortunate because people who speak negatively only serve
       | to undermine their group - whether it's crypto or a social cause
       | group etc. and often they, themselves, are the insecure ignorant
       | one that don't even deeply understand what they're fighting for.
        
         | Comevius wrote:
         | Crypto is not practical or fair by design. It needs a steady
         | supply of greater fools to operate, and the only future it's
         | capable of creating is one where everything is monetized,
         | corporatized and the wealthy is in charge, with no recourse for
         | the rest of us.
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ_xWvX1n9g
        
           | anonporridge wrote:
           | All of civilization needs a never ending supply of greater
           | fools to keep operating and reward the early investors.
           | 
           | We call them children.
           | 
           | If you don't want to participate in this ponzi, then chop
           | wood and carry water until you can't anymore and let your
           | body return to the earth.
        
           | tarsinge wrote:
           | I really did not like that video. There are some interesting
           | ideas but the tone is insufferable for me, not a fan of
           | superficial punchlines and logical fallacies wrapped as deep
           | thoughts, no matter if I agree or not with the point.
        
             | officialchicken wrote:
             | >superficial punchlines and logical fallacies
             | 
             | I thought the writing and editing were excellent and well
             | thought out. Can you give a specific example of when a
             | logical fallacy was employed in the video?
        
             | Animats wrote:
             | I watched the whole thing, which is too long. He gets a bit
             | carried away at some points, but he doesn't seem to be
             | factually wrong.
             | 
             | He makes a good point - cryptocurrencies are a transfer of
             | money from late adopters to early adopters. That's implicit
             | in anything where "line goes up" but there is no revenue,
             | no dividends, it's zero sum, and there's no exit.
             | 
             | The NFT thing seems to be on the way out. The NFT industry
             | is Axie Infinity, OpenSea, Bored Ape Yacht Club, and the
             | little guys. Axie Infinity recently crashed hard. Their
             | Smooth Love Potion token, the one players grind for, is
             | down to $0.01246 (was around $0.35 at peak). Their other
             | token, Axie, is down to about half the peak. OpenSea seems
             | to be stalling out with limited liquidity - too many items
             | with high prices but no bids. People are frantically
             | issuing new NFTs every day, but the available sucker supply
             | seems to have dried up. It's hard to tell, because wash
             | sales to pump the price are so easy in the NFT space. This
             | whole thing is starting to look like Pet Rock 2.0.
             | 
             | Bitcoin and Etherium don't look so good right now. Both are
             | around half of peak.
        
         | zepto wrote:
         | Crypto is different because the scumbags are _motivated by the
         | currencies themselves_.
        
           | elefanten wrote:
           | I suppose this was supposed to sound like a snappy argument?
           | It's a bland, impactless statement. Even if scumbags are
           | infatuated with something, it can still have legitimate and
           | beneficial uses / users.
           | 
           | And the comment's wrong too... the scumbags probably want to
           | cash their gains out to traditional currencies, they're least
           | likely to be in it as technology true believers.
        
             | zepto wrote:
             | > Even if scumbags are infatuated with something,
             | 
             | Nobody is taking about infatuation except you.
             | 
             | Obviously the comment is talking about the incentive for
             | people to try to drive the value of their holdings up.
             | 
             | The scumbags are the ones who do this dishonestly.
             | 
             | > And the comment's wrong too... the scumbags probably want
             | to cash their gains out to traditional currencies, they're
             | least likely to be in it as technology true believers.
             | 
             | No. Anyone can be a scumbag. It has nothing to do with
             | being in it for a quick buck or being a true believer or
             | not. It's simply about what methods one is willing to use.
             | 
             | So yes, Hodlers, and crypto-utopians can be scumbags too.
        
             | ricardobeat wrote:
             | I think what he was trying to say is that saying "crypto
             | attracts scumbags" puts the onus purely on _consumers_ of
             | the tech, when in fact a lot of the scummy behavior, hype
             | and fraud is planned and encouraged by the people
             | _implementing_ the technology, not only their users. That
             | 's a significant departure from "any other movement".
        
               | zepto wrote:
               | > That's a significant departure from "any other
               | movement".
               | 
               | Exactly this. There are scumbags in every movement, but
               | crypto has structural incentives for scumbaggery that
               | make it distinct.
        
         | sepiasaucer wrote:
         | IMO the technology blockchain has only demonstrated success in
         | 1 application which is cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency has only
         | demonstrated success in 2 applications: speculative investment
         | and illegal online purchases. I would include NFT's under the
         | speculative investment category.
         | 
         | These applications are obviously problematic for 3 main
         | reasons: it wastes enormous amounts of energy, the investment
         | is often at the expense of less tech/financial savvy people,
         | and most people don't want it to be easier for criminals to
         | conduct financial transactions.
         | 
         | IMO, it is not a few bad apples spoiling the bunch. It is a
         | bunch of bad apples with a few good apples mixed in. Even if
         | your motivations in working in this space are good (not simply
         | for your own technical stimulation/amusement), you are trading
         | off furthering/enabling real world harm now against optimistic
         | speculation about future positive outcomes.
        
           | maxilevi wrote:
           | I disagree. I use crypto to protect against high inflation in
           | my country and mantain the value of the fruits of my labour.
           | Where does that fit in your categories?
           | 
           | Crypto and DeFi have a lot of applications, especially in
           | third world countries with bad financial systems.
        
             | Illniyar wrote:
             | Your government has capital controls (mentioned in a
             | different response) to prevent you from purchasing foreign
             | currency.
             | 
             | Which makes buying crypto (or stablecoin) illegal online
             | purchase.
             | 
             | Illegal doesn't always means wrong or immoral, depends on
             | whether the laws are good or not.
        
               | maxilevi wrote:
               | It's illegal to buy dollars.
               | 
               | I am buying an asset that is pegged to the USD dollar.
               | That is not illegal neither is buying USD denominated
               | bonds. In fact the goverment even has sold USD
               | denominated bonds.
        
             | sepiasaucer wrote:
             | In the absence of a stable government backed currency it
             | seems cryptocurrency could have some value. However,
             | cryptocurrency is also unstable. You are speculating that
             | holding crypto will be better over some period of time than
             | any alternative value store you can access. That may well
             | be true, but seems like that depends on what other options
             | you have access to and would require more rigorous analysis
             | of the tradeoffs. For example, if you were to say "crypto
             | is a better currency than eggs" [1], that seems likely, but
             | eggs don't require internet access and specialized
             | knowledge of a particular technology.
             | 
             | [1] https://www.economist.com/finance-and-
             | economics/2018/07/19/w...
        
               | maxilevi wrote:
               | You are assuming I use BTC or ETH directly as currency
               | but I use stablecoins like DAI which are pegged to the
               | USD dollar.
               | 
               | This allows me to hold currencies I wouldn't be able to
               | buy because of capital controls by the government.
        
               | sepiasaucer wrote:
               | "Where does that fit in your categories?"
               | 
               | It sounds like it falls mostly under illegal transactions
               | because you are using crypto for something that would
               | otherwise be illegal (avoiding capital controls). Is it
               | technically illegal? I don't know. Is it ethically wrong?
               | I guess not directly. However, I imagine there are also a
               | lot of nefarious reasons somebody might want to avoid
               | capital controls which crypto could also help facilitate.
        
               | maxilevi wrote:
               | It's illegal to buy dollars but not assets that track the
               | USD dollar. Buying DAI is legal for the same reason
               | buying USD denominated bonds is legal, they are not
               | dollars and you are not taking them from the central
               | bank.
               | 
               | And either way I don't think grouping "criminal
               | transactions" with "stuff that's illegal in X country" is
               | fair. At many points in history governments outlawed
               | things that are very wrong (e.g. nazi germany) Just
               | because someone doesn't want to succumb to corrupt
               | institutions doesn't mean he/she is a bad guy.
        
             | notahacker wrote:
             | > I use crypto to protect against high inflation in my
             | country and mantain the value of the fruits of my labour.
             | Where does that fit in your categories?
             | 
             | This is obviously speculative investment.
             | 
             | (Even if your local currency is so horrendous it lost more
             | value than Bitcoin this month, less volatile ways of
             | hedging exist. Maybe you bought lower or changed
             | cryptoassets so you've gained far more than BTC fell, but
             | that's speculative investment and trading, not maintaining
             | value)
        
               | maxilevi wrote:
               | Its not. I am using stablecoins to hold currencies I
               | wouldn't be able to hold because of capital controls.
        
               | anon9001 wrote:
               | So what you're saying is that you buy ETH for its utility
               | of processing transactions on tokenized assets? And you
               | get more value out of spending the ETH on gas than it
               | cost you to purchase it?
               | 
               | That sure sounds like a useful product to me.
               | 
               | I think HN is so anti-crypto because so few people in the
               | industry currently have your use-case.
               | 
               | Personally, I think what you're doing is exciting and
               | helps put a value on the utility of paying to run these
               | contracts.
        
               | maxilevi wrote:
               | Yes and it's also much easier to trade tokenized assets
               | between people than bonds or other financial instruments.
               | 
               | Also the whole DeFi ecosystem allows you to use your
               | tokenized assets in different ways, giving even more
               | value to it.
               | 
               | I think many people have my use case, it's just that you
               | can't really see it unless you live in a country with a
               | very mismanaged central bank. Which in my opinion is
               | becoming more and more common every day.
        
       | ryandrake wrote:
       | Kind of similar to this Conspiracy Levels chart that was making
       | the rounds a few months ago[1], including the crucial "departure
       | from reality" tipping point, and the "XYZ as your group identity"
       | level. No doubt promoters of major conspiracies have studied
       | marketing, as they are are adept at generating belief and hype
       | out of nothing.
       | 
       | 1: https://m.imgur.com/XY5PAvd
        
         | password54321 wrote:
         | Covid coming from a lab is 'leaving science"? Well I'm glad
         | whoever made that chart has it all figured out.
        
           | jollybean wrote:
           | Yes, they need to update that list.
           | 
           | Jamie Metzel [1] makes a very rational case that the Lab Leak
           | theory is very likely. Check out is interview with Lex. It's
           | more than 4 hours long (!), but worth a listen.
           | 
           | [1] https://jamiemetzl.com/origins-of-sars-cov-2/
        
             | tripletao wrote:
             | The creator of that graphic seems to have actually done so,
             | at
             | 
             | https://twitter.com/abbieasr/status/1462953203067240450
             | 
             | "COVID-19 made in lab" has been revised to the narrower
             | "COVID is a bioweapon". The remainder of the original
             | broader claim ("COVID arose from reckless but not malicious
             | virological research") appears nowhere on the new chart.
             | 
             | Of course the new chart then puts "Iran Contra" in the same
             | category as "UFOs"; so infographics are perhaps not the
             | best arbiters of truth in general.
        
             | jimkleiber wrote:
             | I think there are two theories that get conflated: 1) it
             | was experimentation and leaked out of the lab accidentally
             | and 2) it was weaponization and leaked out of the lab
             | intentionally.
             | 
             | I think sometimes one person says the former and another
             | hears the latter and vice versa.
        
               | notahacker wrote:
               | Also, conflation between "a coronavirus escaping lab
               | which studied animal coronaviruses is a plausible origin
               | for an outbreak in humans", which is a well-supported
               | claim and "SARs-COV-2 can't be a natural virus", which
               | isn't (even before all the extraneous group identity
               | stuff is added on). Seems the designer of the graphic was
               | focused on the latter argument when he said "made in
               | lab".
        
         | mynameishere wrote:
         | George Soros is a conspiracy theory? No, he's a real guy who
         | has spent many millions to influence politics. How does
         | somebody put together something so stupid as that chart? It's
         | really impressive.
        
         | Nuzzerino wrote:
         | The difference is that chart you linked is actually reasonably
         | well-made.
        
       | Wronnay wrote:
       | I don't agree with the categorization of "full self-driving" as
       | "LEVEL 2: EXAGGERATED CLAIMS".
       | 
       | There is no proof that self driving cars will ever be able to
       | navigate in e.g. European cities with narrow streets and without
       | lines on them.
       | 
       | Full driving would mean driving autonomous everywhere and between
       | a highway with visible signs and lines and streets without any
       | markings is a big difference.
       | 
       | its more like "LEVEL 3: UTOPIAN FUTURES" because there is the
       | potential for it but no current systems can handle difficult
       | situations in streets without clear markings.
        
         | inglor_cz wrote:
         | Narrow streets can be equipped with some kind of helping
         | beacons one day, much like they were equipped with street lamps
         | and canalization in the previous centuries.
         | 
         | Anyway, this is a fairly low percentage of the total street
         | network. Even in Prague the medieval center is smallish (and
         | many of those streets are off-limits to regular car traffic).
        
           | boopboopbadoop wrote:
           | > Narrow streets can be equipped with some kind of helping
           | beacons one day
           | 
           | That changes the goal posts in my opinion. The "self" part of
           | "self-driving" no longer applies.
        
             | hiptobecubic wrote:
             | I mean, many people can't drive without safety features all
             | over their cars, GPS to help them navigate, and road signs
             | to tell them where to go.
             | 
             | I don't see how "helping beacons" for robots are unfair but
             | street lights are not.
        
             | nexuist wrote:
             | Does it matter? If investing in smart infrastructure is
             | what it takes to recognize this reality, who is this a
             | downside for? It's like saying we can't build any more
             | intersections because we'd have to buy traffic lights.
        
         | Retric wrote:
         | > There is no proof
         | 
         | That's an odd requirement. There is _no proof_ Intel will ever
         | put out a faster chip. There is in general _no proof_ for any
         | new technology because it hasn't been built yet.
         | 
         | Narrow city streets aren't vastly different than normal city
         | streets, and people used to constantly say _sure operating on
         | highways is easy, show me self driving cars inside cities._ I
         | think people underestimate how long self driving cars are going
         | to take, but they are already good enough to be useful which
         | means companies will continually invest in being just a little
         | bit better.
         | 
         | Looking back _automatic transmissions_ took decades and where
         | seriously flawed for most of that time, but just a little bit
         | better every year and eventually they became the default. Cruse
         | control and every other major innovation went through that same
         | cycle, it's just that once something is good enough to be the
         | default it has been around so long nobody wakes up and says
         | "wow it's finally ready" because it's been in use for a long
         | time.
         | 
         | IMO, take everything people are generally expecting self
         | driving to be in 2030 and it's going to be ready in 2060 and
         | the default by 2090.
        
           | Wronnay wrote:
           | I agree with your comment, but I understood the author's
           | level 2 as something which can be realized with existing
           | technology. Meaning there is already a prototype.
           | 
           | There is no prototype for complete full driving, including
           | very difficult situations - so I see that as level 3.
        
             | Retric wrote:
             | Level 2 says Tomorrow as in technology that's in
             | development. I read Level 3 as when people talk about the
             | potential for say intersections without traffic lights and
             | the end to gridlock. That's not just exaggeration or
             | extrapolation of current research but hopeful projections
             | without anything even vaguely in the pipeline for
             | development. Aka the semantic web and other rather
             | grandiose ideas.
             | 
             | The first generation of cruse control didn't shift gears
             | making it useless for maintaining speed up and down steep
             | hills but it provided the basic functionality on a
             | reasonable subset of roads. It was still called cruse
             | control. So, my point was a Tesla's ability to drive from a
             | limited set of parking spaces to another set of parking
             | spaces by crossing public streets, covers the basic
             | description of self driving. It's a poor implementation but
             | fulfills the basic premise of you not having to turn the
             | steering wheel and ending up your destination even if it
             | has a host of limitations. Doing that but in Paris is
             | really more of the same.
             | 
             | (Edited the above several times.)
        
             | danielmarkbruce wrote:
             | How would one build a prototype for "complete full driving"
             | ?
        
         | hiptobecubic wrote:
         | Honestly, small streets where there's really only one thing you
         | can do (go straight forward but don't drive into anything) are
         | not as hard as where cars are already driving today because the
         | speeds are very low and the distances you have to consider are
         | are pretty short. This is not like making unprotected lefts
         | across 6 lanes of traffic in Beijing.
         | 
         | The hype around "full self driving" is exaggerated because
         | today it's not even "limited self driving," let alone SOTA.
        
           | Wronnay wrote:
           | Did you ever drove through e.g. city centers in Europe or
           | Asia?
           | 
           | There are not only missing lines but it's often also used by
           | many people which walk on it. A self driving system doesn't
           | only have to figure out where the steet ends and walkways
           | begins but also has to correctly detect many moving people
           | and animals.
           | 
           | Additionally, there are frequently side streets or walkways
           | which are not mapped in every map database...
        
       | mberning wrote:
       | The worst offenders in recent memory are self driving cars, block
       | chain, VR, and "the metaverse".
        
         | marginalia_nu wrote:
         | NFTs, Theranos, AR, AI/ML, No/Low Code.
         | 
         | "No Man's Sky" is also an interesting case study.
        
           | password321 wrote:
           | Not sure how AR, AI/ML or even No Mans Sky belong to the same
           | list as NFTs. No Mans Sky has delivered on many things over
           | time and chances are you used AI for something today even if
           | you aren't aware of it. Maybe you mean AGI and how near in
           | the future some promised it to be. AR is too early to even
           | judge, with only Microsoft investing into it out of the
           | reputable companies AFAIK.
        
             | marginalia_nu wrote:
             | I do think there's a spectrum of pathological hype. On the
             | one hand, there is manufactured hype, the NFTs and
             | Theranos-end of the spectrum; on the other hand, there is
             | hype from mismanaged expectations, the NMS side of the
             | spectrum.
             | 
             | While NMS did eventually get their act together, what they
             | delivered on launch was very much not aligned with the
             | expectations.
             | 
             | AI solutions are hyped because they are AI solutions, not
             | because of what they actually deliver. It's not that it has
             | no uses, but the promises do not match up with the reality.
             | Often it's enough to solve an already previously solved
             | problem with AI to generate hype around a product, even if
             | the AI solution is strictly worse than what's already on
             | the market.
        
           | Mezzie wrote:
           | "No Man's Sky" is a fascinating example. I was really worried
           | that was going to be a repeat of Spore.
        
           | Ostrogodsky wrote:
           | Cyberpunk 2077
        
         | codebolt wrote:
         | Self-driving cars, yes, but I'd say AI/ML in general reached at
         | least level 3/4 at some point over the past few years. Seems to
         | be cooling off a bit these days, though.
        
         | dopidopHN wrote:
         | What about 3D printing ? It's tame now but I remember how it
         | was supposed to change a lot of things in our every day life.
        
         | Semaphor wrote:
         | > "the metaverse"
         | 
         | I'm probably in some kind of bubble, but is that hyped? I
         | mainly hear about it on HN, maybe a bunch of joking off-hand
         | comments on Reddit. No one else seem to care about it at all.
         | So, my bubble in Germany, or is it actually _a thing_ in the
         | USA?
        
           | k__ wrote:
           | I gave up on German tech news 5 years ago.
           | 
           | They're always behind.
        
             | Ostrogodsky wrote:
             | As someone whose German is rusty and is try to not lose it,
             | what kind of German media you think is worth the trouble?,
             | in other words, publications where you will find insights
             | that are not simply a repetition/regurgitation of what it
             | is said in English.
        
           | boucher wrote:
           | One of the largest companies in the world has recently
           | renamed itself Meta (verse is strongly implied), so on some
           | level it must have a decent amount of hype.
        
           | slightwinder wrote:
           | Metaverse is something that is happening for a long time now.
           | The Zuckerberg-Metaverse is just the latest step in this
           | development that gave the fire new fuel. Maybe because of
           | this slow burning hype the general impression of it is rather
           | low.
        
           | detaro wrote:
           | Even fairly mainstream news already went on about how the
           | Microsoft acquisition of Activision is all about Microsoft
           | getting ready for metaverse.
        
         | pessimizer wrote:
         | 3D TV.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | kkoncevicius wrote:
       | I am not sure if there is a linear trajectory. With some hypes
       | the "othering" starts early and itself acts as a booster for
       | hype, by creating the "initiated" group that everyone wants to be
       | a part of.
       | 
       | Also, unrelated, but for some reason, while reading, I kept
       | thinking that COVID-19 vaccines fit all these levels quite well.
        
       | jimkleiber wrote:
       | I wish the chart had a negative dimension as well, or if not a
       | negative one, then increase the number of levels of hype.
       | 
       | I say this because as I read it, I think how little hype I put
       | into some of my work, so little that it may not even register on
       | the base level of hype. The downplaying, even discounting
       | successes or achievements I've attained with products and such.
       | 
       | Perhaps such things don't belong there as they're almost the
       | opposite of hype, and yet I think it would help me see the full
       | spectrum of promotion and help me navigate it more confidently.
        
         | rambambram wrote:
         | Good idea.
         | 
         | I was also thinking about 'negativity', but more along the
         | lines of: I'm missing the author saying what the legal gray
         | areas are. I mean, in level 2 he already talks about "fraud".
         | ;)
        
           | jimkleiber wrote:
           | Ah yea, I like that idea of maybe talking about the legal
           | risks or overall cons (pun intended) of the different levels
           | :-)
        
       | MeteorMarc wrote:
       | Quantum computing scores high as well on the hype scale.
        
       | bregma wrote:
       | This chart should be rewritten in Rust.
        
         | ferdowsi wrote:
         | Hah I was also thinking how neatly these categories fit into
         | the worst examples of language evangelism. Some are definitely
         | at this stage!
         | 
         | > Examples here are (again) the cryptocurrency scene which has
         | been pretty good at othering critics as "no-coiners" or lately
         | with the phrase "have fun staying poor".
        
       | yakattak wrote:
       | I prefer Gartner's Hype Cycle[1] way of displaying this. This
       | post seems pretty inspired by it but the removal of the graph
       | really makes it harder to grok quickly.
       | 
       | Still, the trend seems to be: 1. New technology, over promises 2.
       | Marketing latches onto the overpromise and bolsters it,
       | regardless of lack of research 3. Companies built around the
       | technology fail, until a few find the niche the technology fits
       | into.
       | 
       | Makes you wonder how much money is wasted on just trying to
       | capitalize on new tech. The last company I worked for wasted
       | loads chasing the latest and greatest.
       | 
       | [1]:
       | https://www.gartner.com/en/documents/3887767/understanding-g...
        
         | jollybean wrote:
         | There are many products, indeed, entire categories, that never
         | come out of the 'trough of disillusionment'.
        
         | WA wrote:
         | Gartner's hype cycle is what many products go through and they
         | settle at some kind of normal utility. This post describes the
         | amplitude (y axis) of Gartner's chart imho.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | claaams wrote:
       | Ah, the El*n M*sk model of marketing.
       | 
       | Hyperloop? Cybertruck? Fully self driving cars?
        
       | thriftwy wrote:
       | Why would having a technology as a part of group identity lead to
       | utopian claims? Unless the group/technology feels threatened.
       | 
       | Linux is an important part of my identity and I will happily
       | watch how infidels struggle with their malware-ridden proprietary
       | tech, knowing most of them can't be saved anyway.
        
         | pram wrote:
         | Linux already went through its hype cycle like 20 years ago.
         | I'd say the high water mark of that cycle was around the
         | release of Cathedral and the Bazaar and the destruction of the
         | VA Linux stock.
         | 
         | Now it's deeply in the plateau of productivity.
        
         | umvi wrote:
         | I'm a Linux fanboy too, but let's not fool ourselves. If Linux
         | ever went "mainstream", then the amount of malware targeting it
         | would rise precipitously. See: Android
        
           | nexuist wrote:
           | Linux doesn't need malware because what use can scammers get
           | out of someone who can't even afford a MacBook? /s
        
             | anonporridge wrote:
             | See rich people who "dress down".
        
           | thriftwy wrote:
           | Desktop is falling out of favour anyway, so its potential
           | impact is debatable.
        
       | umvi wrote:
       | This doesn't just apply to new technology but also
       | social/political/economic ideas too. I would have liked to see
       | levels beyond 5 (i.e. the part where reality catches back up, the
       | hype collapses, the backlash starts, etc)
        
         | nerdponx wrote:
         | Maybe "collapse" isn't itself a "level of hype", but something
         | separate from hype.
         | 
         | But I agree that this applies to things other than technology.
         | Sometimes it seems like _most_ political movements lie
         | somewhere between levels 3 and 5.
        
       | sentrysapper wrote:
       | airhorns
        
       | winphone1974 wrote:
       | The tech industry has always been bullish on "the future" so I
       | don't think this is different today; what does feel different is
       | it seems hype is now the end product vs. hype about the
       | underlying advancement. This may be inevitable in the highly
       | commercialized, mature space that the internet has become.
        
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