[HN Gopher] A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth
        
       Author : axiomdata316
       Score  : 127 points
       Date   : 2022-01-21 15:32 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.economist.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.economist.com)
        
       | fairity wrote:
       | I wish our brightest minds were all working in areas like this
       | instead of social apps and advertising. Is there even any doubt
       | that with a better understanding of biology we could meaningfully
       | prolong the human lifespan? What are we doing working on apps
       | lol.
        
         | mdavis6890 wrote:
         | The problem is that anything related to the human body is
         | super-heavily regulated, which creates a ton of friction and
         | risk to doing anything innovative.
         | 
         | I think the folks that would get very excited about working on
         | the problem of aging would not be excited about the amount of
         | regulatory bureaucracy (trying to find a non-judgmental word to
         | use there) that necessarily goes along with it.
         | 
         | In fact I think that the reason that so much innovation and
         | wealth creation is concentrated in things which such dubious
         | social benefit is exactly that it isn't regulated, because it
         | doesn't matter. If it matters and is important, it becomes
         | regulated, which slows and discourages innovation and the
         | people who want to innovate.
        
           | DoubleDerper wrote:
           | "...anything related to the human body is super-heavily
           | regulated"
           | 
           | In the Western world this is true. Countries with less
           | oversight stand to benefit from regulation arbitrage.
        
             | randcraw wrote:
             | Of course, China already has refuted your thesis. Due to
             | lack of oversight and regulation (and enforcement), their
             | health care system is mistrusted by everyone. That's why
             | the country's covid inoculation rate has been so low.
             | Because trust is very hard to regain once lost, ensurance
             | of safety and efficacy in healthcare through regulation has
             | clear advantages.
        
           | e_y_ wrote:
           | There's tons of basic research that could be done before we
           | ever get to the regulatory question of human trials. If we
           | could get pigs to live for 50 years (currently ~20) it would
           | be a huge step forward in our understanding of aging.
           | 
           | On the other hand, pig life extension is not really a product
           | you can sell. Even human life extension, which should
           | theoretically be worth trillions, seems like too much of a
           | pipe dream. The benefits of basic research only become
           | apparent years or decades down the road, and a lot of it is
           | going to be dead ends.
           | 
           | Whereas it's pretty firmly established that if you can make a
           | $700 smartphone that's slightly better than last year's, you
           | can sell millions of them.
        
           | avrionov wrote:
           | I don't think that the main problem is the regulation. The
           | regulations are a side effect of how difficult and harmful
           | these experiments could to humans. In the software business
           | when a project fails we can just used a starting point for
           | the next iteration. In life sciences they don't have that
           | luxury. There is no way to test something quickly (in seconds
           | and minutes).
           | 
           | May be one day we'll have a complete model of the human body
           | and medicine and drugs can be tested through a software.
        
         | arwineap wrote:
         | I think that for most workers it's about paying the mortgage
         | and raising your kids. Once bio-hacking starts paying the bills
         | you may see more interest in it
         | 
         | As a secondary thought, I never would have gotten into code-
         | hacking if I didn't have access to a terminal and some open
         | source. I don't think that model would ever work for something
         | like this
        
         | grishka wrote:
         | So how can I, as a software developer, meaningfully contribute
         | to this area? I would very much prefer to live forever.
        
           | forgotmyoldacc wrote:
           | You could gain computational biology experience from working
           | at biotech until you have enough to work at one of these
           | longevity startups.
        
             | justsocrateasin wrote:
             | This is exactly what I'm doing - working at a
             | bioinformatics startup as a SDE, and slowly picking up comp
             | bio projects.
        
           | patall wrote:
           | Bioinformatics is a huge field and a lot of software
           | developers are working there. It's science with multi-year
           | career paths, so you cannot just start working on everything
           | without learning the basics first. But with a bit of
           | training, many former software developers have contributed as
           | lab techs, PhD students or other types of associates.
        
           | SuoDuanDao wrote:
           | most leading biohackers have a patreon or subscribestar page
           | where you could help fund their research, that might be a
           | start.
        
           | Dig1t wrote:
           | I guess you could dive into the world of home-brew
           | biohacking? Understanding genetics and lab techniques doesn't
           | seem out of reach for programmer types, but I don't really
           | know.
        
             | SuoDuanDao wrote:
             | I tried it (shoutout to The Odin's biohacking courses!) but
             | I found it requires a lot more manual skills than I was
             | used to from programming. Not out of reach but quite
             | different, the most similar existing skill for me was
             | actually cooking. Though I never made it past beginner
             | stage, so take my experience for what it's worth.
        
           | smnrchrds wrote:
           | In an ideal world, biology salaries would be on par with tech
           | salaries, so more intelligent ambitious young people will
           | pursue education and careers in biology.
        
             | grishka wrote:
             | I'm personally not driven by money and never was. First and
             | foremost I would like to make the world a better place.
        
           | solveit wrote:
           | Competitive advantage says that in the vast majority of cases
           | you should do more or less what you're doing now, perhaps
           | adjust your behaviour to optimise for compensation, and
           | spend/donate money to have more biologists work on this. This
           | is very general advice for anyone with a cause that they
           | would like to get done without regard to who does it.
        
         | judge2020 wrote:
         | Calico[0] is funded by Google, so advertising is obviously a
         | necessary evil.
         | 
         | 0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calico_(company)#_sarcasm
        
       | kvhdude wrote:
       | what do HN folks think about efforts of Dr david sinclair of
       | https://sinclair.hms.harvard.edu/ ?
        
       | Kalanos wrote:
       | NMN
        
       | marto1 wrote:
       | Looking at it from an engineering perspective it's a pretty dumb
       | problem to go after. Coming mostly from my experience with
       | minification of electronics.
       | 
       | E.g. the problems you get at 150nm are almost the same you'd get
       | at 140nm or close but going down to 22nm is a whole different
       | story. The effects that you could skim over before begin to
       | matter in a critical way forming a sort of butterfly effect of
       | ridiculous complexity.
       | 
       | So I think they'll be able to push it to let's say 120 years.
       | Then after that something that you did 110 years ago, e.g.
       | jumping too much in the bed will be the thing that leads you to
       | develop a certain condition in your 120s. This is of course
       | cascading so your related conditions contribute too even if
       | you've dealt with them. Also we're not talking electronics here,
       | but the human body so the baseline complexity is much much
       | higher. And we're not even counting in *meaningful life* years.
       | 
       | AND with that being said I wouldn't take the economist way too
       | seriously. They have had all sorts of Chicken Little style
       | articles before so who knows what they are actually after.
        
         | mlyle wrote:
         | > And we're not even counting in _meaningful life_ years.
         | 
         | I think it's likely that a lot of these treatment paths end up
         | cumulatively increasing QALY's (quality-adjusted life years) by
         | more than they increase life expectancy. That is, they add more
         | good time than total time, in part because of a lot of the
         | factors you mention. If we pick up 5 years of QALY and 4 years
         | of increased lifespan, that's a pretty huge win, IMO. It means
         | getting to know grandchildren much more meaningfully as the
         | typical age of parents at childbirth has increased.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | staticassertion wrote:
       | You can play "didn't read the article" bingo with these posts
       | every time.
       | 
       | 1. This isn't technology that increases lifespan dramatically. No
       | one is going to live to 150 because of this work. Instead, they
       | might live an extra decade at absolute best, but more likely (and
       | the goal) is that they'll have a longer _healthy_ life. That is
       | to say, maybe you 'd die at the same age, but you'd be walking
       | around, feeling young and energetic, for more years of your life.
       | 
       | 2. This technology is unlikely to extraordinarily expensive. Even
       | current anti-aging pills that are patented are easily affordable
       | by the middle class. But more importantly, imagine if you
       | eliminated cancer, alzheimers, and other age-related illnesses -
       | imagine the _economic impact_ , what that would do to insurance
       | premiums, etc. It would have a significant overall positive
       | impact on the economy.
       | 
       | Almost every post will make the mistake of talking about
       | immortality, absurd age extensions (150 year lifespans), etc.
       | None of that is on the table.
        
       | dandare wrote:
       | We talk a lot (actually, not enough) about the dangers of AI, but
       | we rarely discuss the perils of longevity. Not that they are
       | similar, but both are somewhat underrated.
       | 
       | - Once there will be a scientific breakthrough in longevity,
       | everything will happen very fast. The time between the first and
       | the billionth vaccine against ageing probably won't be much
       | longer than one year.
       | 
       | - The breakthrough may be just around the corner (10, 20 30
       | years...) - many people seem to be putting their money on it.
       | 
       | - Sudden increase in the average lifespan by as little as 10
       | years would throw most pension funds and state budgets into
       | disarray. Mind you, a 70 years old retiree rejuvenated back to
       | his 60 won't be magically as productive as she was before she
       | retired. She will be unemployed and 10 years behind on
       | everything.
       | 
       | - Any significant lifespan enhancement will mean we have to
       | renegotiate social contract about having kids. Will the vaccine
       | come with strings attached? We can't even control our population
       | explosion today.
       | 
       | - Not just science progresses one funeral at a
       | time.(https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30025879). Imagine
       | having no real possibility progressing in your career, once the
       | "best" will fill the ladder. Would you want your judge or police
       | chief to be the same person for 50 years?
       | 
       | PS: That being said, I don't think we can or should hold back and
       | it will be all worth it.
        
         | godelski wrote:
         | I think several of these are solved. Though pensions is a
         | difficult one but they aren't nearly as common as they used to
         | be.
         | 
         | If you live forever you can learn a new skill. There's also an
         | incentive to get to financial independence.
         | 
         | Population isn't an issue and I'm confused why this is
         | frequently brought up. But then again people think America is
         | over populated while it's extremely population sparse. The
         | truth is that every first world country has birth rates well
         | below replacement. Most developing countries do too or are on
         | their way. Countries where people live longer and have
         | education have declining populations. It's wouldn't be
         | surprising if people who were immortal didn't have kids until
         | they were able to reach financial independence. Be that in
         | their 90's or 900's.
         | 
         | I also don't think people will want to do the same jobs
         | forever. We have infinite time. It's okay if it takes 50 years
         | of schooling and 50 years to become a Sr engineer. Time is
         | different. It's also more incentive for automation so little
         | can just live.
        
       | marstall wrote:
       | it's good to see billionaires putting money into health moonshots
       | (vs real moonshots). Helps so many more people.
        
         | metalliqaz wrote:
         | If immortality was somehow cracked, it would cause the end of
         | civilization if it became available to everyone. Imagine the
         | population of Earth ballooning to 12+ billion. Instead, it
         | would be kept for the billionaires. Imagine the staggering
         | inequality of 180-year-old trillionaires and their kin, that
         | never ever relinquish their hordes. It's straight out of a
         | cyberpunk dystopia. (Tessier-Ashpool comes to mind)
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | est31 wrote:
           | One could imagine a societal model where the number of
           | children is restricted instead of access to life prolonging
           | technology. So to target a stable population, you'd allow
           | people to have only as many children as people have died in
           | the last couple of years.
           | 
           | It's doable, we already had societies that deployed such
           | restrictions on a scale similar to the global human
           | population. Whether it _should_ be done is another question,
           | as many people criticize the issue of the state policing
           | procreation.
        
           | marstall wrote:
           | would you rather face that - or death?
        
             | metalliqaz wrote:
             | I would face death in both scenarios. I prefer the scenario
             | where the ultra elite also face death.
        
           | onemoresoop wrote:
           | That sounds terrifying. Imagine a 5 century reign by one and
           | the same dictator. Can't think of too many positives for this
           | scenario.
        
           | sfink wrote:
           | We're accustomed to thinking about the population boom, but
           | the derivative looks like it peaked just before 1970 and
           | there doesn't seem to be much in the way of it continuing to
           | fall below 0%. While I personally feel that that's probably a
           | good thing in the short term, in the longer term we will
           | probably _want_ to decrease the negative side of the
           | population equation more than we want to increase the
           | positive side.
           | 
           | That may be particularly true for billionaires, who profit
           | off of a growth engine that is going to be under serious
           | pressure once the population starts dropping for real.
           | Increasing life span (in particular increasing the span of
           | life not dominated by illness) could balance out quite a bit
           | of declining fertility rate. And I for one think that if
           | fertility became more dominated the people who _want_ to be
           | fertile, it would be a Good Thing.
           | 
           | I'm not going to worry about immortality, because I think
           | it's still very very far out. Which means your trillionaires
           | are about generational wealth. Generational wealth is lost by
           | the first generation 70% of the time, by the second 90% of
           | the time. It's not that big of a thing.
           | 
           | I'm just not too worried that 110 years of healthy life is
           | going to tip the balance too far. It'll slow down progress
           | some ("X advances one funeral at a time"), and we'll
           | massively screw things up for a while, but long term it seems
           | good to me.
        
         | itg wrote:
         | TBH, the research produced from unrelated moonshots help out in
         | many different areas.
        
       | d_burfoot wrote:
       | I love this. People are starting to realize how powerful the
       | logic of life extension is. Think about this: if this startup
       | succeeds only at extending human life expectancy by a _single
       | day_ , it's already worth it. A life is about 3e4 days, and there
       | are 9e9 humans, so giving 1 extra day to every human is the
       | equivalent of saving 3e5 lives.
        
         | blacksmith_tb wrote:
         | Only if it's actually available to every living human on Earth,
         | which unfortunately isn't the case for plenty of things we
         | already have, like food, clean water, medical care and so on.
         | Kim Stanley Robinson's Mars Trilogy[1] books explore what
         | longevity treatments for some but not all could mean (along
         | with terraforming Mars, and lots of other great stuff, that
         | is).
         | 
         | 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_trilogy
        
         | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
         | I have a really big problem with this mathematical reductionist
         | view of the value of life and human time. A life is much more
         | that the sum of its days, basically because for any individual
         | the loss of a single day is basically indistinguishable from a
         | loss of 0 days over a lifespan, but obviously the loss of
         | ~300,000 people would be a catastrophe.
        
         | onemoresoop wrote:
         | A single day would be insignificant and very hard to measure.
        
         | whatshisface wrote:
         | That's assuming the day doesn't cost $1,000,000 for each person
         | treated.
        
         | michaelbarton wrote:
         | I can't help thinking that people dying of old age is our last
         | defense against consolidation of power. No matter how much
         | power someone accrues they're eventually going to die. That
         | power always dissipates, dynasties never last forever.
         | 
         | This might be an extremely cynical take, but it feels like if
         | we did discover a scientific fountain of youth we would end up
         | with immortal billionaires rather than the likes of you and I
         | becoming immortal. There's literally thousands of people dying
         | prematurely in the US from lack of access to healthcare
         | technology that we already have right now.
        
           | staticassertion wrote:
           | Power is already consolidated. It just passes generationally.
           | Living longer won't change that, especially when we're
           | talking optimistically about 10-20% longer lifetimes and,
           | more likely, not much longer lifetimes but more healthy years
           | with the same end date.
        
         | elwell wrote:
         | > startup succeeds only at extending human life expectancy by a
         | single day
         | 
         | https://donate.worldvision.org/give/east-africa-hunger-crisi...
        
       | paxys wrote:
       | There's nothing Silicon Valley billionaires will throw money at
       | faster than the ability to live longer/forever. Makes sense in a
       | way, but pretty much everyone in the field will tell you that the
       | science is simply not there yet. Calico is similarly funded and
       | has been at it for a decade now, with nothing to show for it.
        
         | me_me_me wrote:
         | I was always for idea of defeating aging, and moving on on your
         | own terms.
         | 
         | Until I watch Altered Carbon, I think it premise of rich
         | capturing the technology and using it to divide haves from
         | have-nots is pretty realistic.
        
         | ufo wrote:
         | The good old Larry Ellison gambit
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zRN7XLCRhc&t=37m36s
        
         | iandanforth wrote:
         | This is such a confusing attitude along a number of axes.
         | 
         | 1. Science isn't there so we shouldn't spend billions yet.
         | 
         | Maybe spending billions can advance the science sufficiently?
         | 
         | 2. There is a "there" to get to.
         | 
         | People regularly spend millions in healthcare costs to live a
         | few extra years. What is the "there" that we're imagining?
         | Would someone with >$100B not spend $1B to live 10 more years?
         | You don't need a fountain of youth, just more time in a not-
         | terrible state of health to be worth all this investment and
         | more.
         | 
         | 3. There is _a_ there to get to.
         | 
         | This isn't like the discovery of fission. It might take a dozen
         | different interventions to provide another decade of life to an
         | individual, or a disjoint set of a dozen interventions to
         | provide another decade of life to people in general. One
         | discovery probably won't cut it, and that's ok.
        
         | radicaldreamer wrote:
         | The science is there, but there has actually been a stigma
         | against generalized life extension research because that
         | particular project has been the purview of cranks for literally
         | thousands of years.
        
         | judge2020 wrote:
         | We've been finding ways to live longer since the advent of
         | modern medicine[0]; these moonshot projects funded by the likes
         | of Google via Calico aren't literally trying to find a way to
         | live forever, just mitigate or cure the things that cause
         | death.
         | 
         | Now, perhaps some day in the future we'll have learned enough
         | about how the brain works to keep it alive simply by continuing
         | to supply blood and emulating/simulating the nervous system to
         | allow the person to continue to exist within a virtual
         | environment (or simply via an ipad on some motorized wheels).
         | Some work has been done on the 'staying alive' front[1] but
         | it's very unlikely this sort of biotech matures to work on
         | Humans within the next 50-100 years.
         | 
         | 0: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1040079/life-
         | expectancy-...
         | 
         | 1: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01216-4
        
         | mc32 wrote:
         | What with their lifestyles (along with other wealthy) climate
         | change and an overpopulated planet, I don't think life
         | extensions over the normal range make much sense.
         | 
         | Better invest in healthier living within the normal window. (in
         | other words a robust body and mind till the time comes).
        
         | dqpb wrote:
         | > the science is simply not there yet
         | 
         | How do you suppose it gets there?
        
         | isk517 wrote:
         | The real question is whether you believe the science is not
         | there yet, or not there at all? If it is possible then it is
         | perfectly understandable that people would be willing to throw
         | money at the issue even if it is decades away, mostly because a
         | lot of things remain decades away because those decades need to
         | be full of research that nobody wants to spend money on. On the
         | other hand if it is impossible (or at least impossible without
         | some sort of impossible to predict advancement in biological
         | science) then this is just another attempt to funnel money from
         | people by playing on fear of death.
        
         | colechristensen wrote:
         | That Japanese vaccine that helped your immune system target
         | half dead zombie cells seemed pretty promising.
        
         | Darmody wrote:
         | Science may not be there yet but throwing money at it will help
         | in the long run.
        
         | dougSF70 wrote:
         | I have snake oil for sale
        
           | LinuxBender wrote:
           | On a funny side note, you can actually buy snake oil and it
           | does actually have a metabolic purpose. It is most commonly
           | used to relieve pain and inflammation and is used to treat
           | arthritis and bursitis. The biggest contributing factor is
           | the Omega-3 fatty acids. I prefer Krill oil for this as it
           | sometimes also has Astaxanthin depending on the formulation.
        
           | bbarnett wrote:
           | You do? How much! It seems hard to get the temp right, during
           | rendering, so I often burn the fat and...
           | 
           | (Even snake oil has value...)
        
         | echelon wrote:
         | Pretty simple. Fixing all of our diseases is actually low
         | hanging fruit.
         | 
         | Head transplants onto monoclonal human bodies grown in a lab.
         | Gestated in chimeric pigs, genetically or surgically
         | decephalized before birth, electronically innervated and
         | artificially sustained until use in science or medicine.
         | 
         | Bodies are O-, HLA neutral, and do not require
         | immunosuppressants.
         | 
         | Transplant beneficiaries receive a new and healthy thymus and
         | immune system, unaged cardiovascular and pulmonary system.
         | 
         | Not only a fix for aging, this would solve heart disease, organ
         | failure, AIDS (flush existing cells), and most non-brain/non-
         | blood cancers. It's the fabled cure all.
         | 
         | Brain age would still be an issue, but with a renewed
         | cardiovascular and immune system it may be prolonged or even
         | rejuvenated to a degree.
         | 
         | The technologies are here today. We just have to assemble them.
         | 
         | After delivering on the health promises, there's all sorts of
         | optimizations. You could give people the body they wanted.
         | Male, female, short, tall, strong, athletic, skinny, tan,
         | whatever. Even transgenic with all sorts of modifications. No
         | body odor, big muscles, fur, new skin and hair colors...
         | there's practically unlimited potential.
         | 
         | If I ever have a billion dollar exit, I'm doing it.
        
           | galangalalgol wrote:
           | the neural reattachment seems really hard. Where are we on
           | spinal cord recovery after a complete sever? If you are an
           | oligarch and don't mind murdering a healthy young type o-
           | isn't that really the only barrier?
        
             | echelon wrote:
             | > Where are we on spinal cord recovery after a complete
             | sever?
             | 
             | It's been performed in animals, though it resulted in
             | paralyzation and subsequent euthanization. Human attempts
             | have been prepped for on several occasions, but never
             | carried out.
             | 
             | Past human candidates have been paraplegics, but I think
             | you'd find even more willing patents amongst those with
             | terminal cancers.
             | 
             | It would probably take trial and error before we can
             | reattach a spinal cord successfully. Early patients will
             | likely be paralyzed.
             | 
             | > If you are an oligarch and don't mind murdering a healthy
             | young type o- isn't that really the only barrier?
             | 
             | This isn't scalable and also doesn't confer the advantages
             | of a neutral immune system.
             | 
             | Monoclonal bodies can be used for all other sorts of uses.
             | Wide-scale and repeatable studies, basic research, smaller
             | scale blood and organ transplants, etc.
             | 
             | Since attempts would be limited, the difficult kinks would
             | not be worked out of the protocol. By building a scalable
             | methodology, it begins to work for everyone and becomes
             | safer and more practical over time.
        
               | galangalalgol wrote:
               | Lets make sure we solve the monoclonal bodies thing
               | before the reattachment thing. I'm pretty sure there will
               | be some dying oligarchs that aren't worried about
               | scalability or immunosuppressants.
        
         | awillen wrote:
         | Your post seems to imply that because the science isn't there
         | yet, it doesn't make sense to throw money at it.
         | 
         | But isn't the whole point that you're using the money to bring
         | on the scientists and give them the resources in order to
         | develop the science?
        
       | beepbooptheory wrote:
       | Considering the general trajectory of the world, its surprising
       | people want to stay in it longer, but I guess I too have a
       | portion of morbid curiosity to see just how much we keep screwing
       | everything up. To actually witness cities becoming submerged.
       | 
       | Also, if I didn't have to slave away most of my life to survive,
       | if I could live the life I want, I could probably have a full
       | life by 60, with maybe only a few books still left to read. That
       | would be sufficient and good, very few complaints. But with this
       | stuff.. If I gained another 50 expected years, its just that much
       | more work and sacrifice I gotta do to have a chance of retiring!
        
         | seoulbran wrote:
         | The world aint that bad my friend, just a little crazy atm -
         | it'll get better. Hang in there. If you're on this website,
         | you're one of the lucky few that has their needs taken care of
         | and an ability to traverse up Maslow's pyramid.
         | 
         | Besides, shit is just getting interesting. Strap in.
        
           | beepbooptheory wrote:
           | Thank you, I am personally fine, living the life I want
           | within my circumstances, I am not sad. I think it's a little
           | interesting that feeling pessimistic about the course of
           | civilization necessarily means I am in despair. Humans are
           | just one creature on the earth, our fate as a species need
           | not be the determination of an individual's happiness.
           | 
           | Also, I might need to check to see if I have the required
           | income to be eligible for being this site, I might not make
           | the cut...
        
         | yosito wrote:
         | > Considering the general trajectory of the world, its
         | surprising people want to stay in it longer
         | 
         | It is a popular myth that the world is getting worse. But by
         | almost every measure of human wellbeing, things are getting
         | better. Yes, climate change is a real problem, but it doesn't
         | mean the end of human wellbeing. Even if we don't manage to
         | slow/reverse climate change with innovation (I believe we
         | will), we will manage to adapt. Climate related deaths continue
         | to decline, despite real climate problems. Despair is not the
         | only option.
        
           | beepbooptheory wrote:
           | I hope you are right! But I am not in despair, I know why
           | these things are happening, what structures and systems cause
           | them (which is in part why I don't personally share your
           | optimism). I think humanity falling from grace and prominence
           | is just as beautiful as us keeping going. It's all just a
           | blip of time in the universe, no need to think about it so
           | selfishly or tragically. Humanity as we know it might just be
           | a moral allegory about energy and language anyway.
        
       | Mandelmus wrote:
       | "A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its
       | opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its
       | opponents die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar
       | with it."
       | 
       | - Max Planck[1]
       | 
       | Often paraphrased as "Science progresses one funeral at a time."
       | 
       | I don't think we really want immortality or unnatural longevity.
       | 
       | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planck%27s_principle
        
         | paulluuk wrote:
         | I'd definitely want immortality in the sense of stopping
         | physical (and mental) deterioration. You can always just commit
         | suicide if you're done.
         | 
         | I discuss this with friends and family occasionally, and they
         | all seem to have these ideas that we're "only supposed to live
         | 100 years or so". But that seems like a logical fallacy (appeal
         | to nature) to me, it's not an actual argument.
         | 
         | And sure, there are plenty of dystopian movies about how all of
         | your friends die while you live on. But you know, you can make
         | new friends. As someone who has moved often and had to make new
         | friends often: it's not that bad. Friendships come and go.
         | 
         | Just imagine the things you could get done if you weren't
         | pressured by time. You could witness the colonization of other
         | planets, the unification of humanity. And if everyone were
         | immortal, we wouldn't have to worry about things like pensions
         | anymore, and I bet that we'd see an extreme lowering of crime
         | and violence.
         | 
         | The only read problem I see would be overpopulation, and
         | possibly draconion measures to regulate it.
        
           | dcow wrote:
           | If we were to immediately acquire immortality then society
           | would need to evolve a structure that deliberately kills
           | ideas and pushes itself past ideologic ruts, etc. Do you
           | really want boomers running government and owning land for
           | _longer_? Society would be down right miserable. Think about
           | it in terms other than "yourself transcending all your peers"
           | for a moment.
           | 
           | It may sound cool to you to live to see the day we colonize
           | planets, but your entire comment reeks of narcissism and
           | maybe regret. I'll give you that there are perhaps a few
           | scenarios where extended longevity would be convenient, like
           | allowing a research group a little extra time to achieve a
           | likely breakthrough, but beyond that I really can't imagine
           | society where everyone lives forever looking remotely like it
           | does today. If the only problem you can imagine is
           | overpopulation then you aren't really thinking critically at
           | all. Why do Tolkien elves always fade away?
           | 
           | We're supposed to invest our resources as a human race into
           | raising the next generation to achieve the things we
           | collectively dream of but couldn't in out generation. Sure if
           | we can extend lifetimes gradually over time and reduce
           | deterioration and suffering that's one thing and I believe
           | we'd adapt naturally. But arguing for immortality by default
           | right now? That is perverse and not remotely biologically
           | appropriate. You've got one shot on this earth to make a
           | difference. Don't squander it. Don't steal from future
           | generations. Listen to the wisdom of others around you. And
           | learn to embrace your mortality, because you will die.
        
             | kiba wrote:
             | _We're supposed to invest our resources as a human race
             | into raising the next generation to achieve the things we
             | collectively dream of but couldn 't in out generation. Sure
             | if we can extend lifetimes gradually over time and reduce
             | deterioration and suffering that's one thing and I believe
             | we'd adapt naturally. But arguing for immortality by
             | default right now? That is perverse and not remotely
             | biologically appropriate. You've got one shot on this earth
             | to make a difference. Don't squander it. Don't steal from
             | future generations. Listen to the wisdom of others around
             | you. And learn to embrace your mortality, because you will
             | die. _
             | 
             | If you're immortal, then you're stuck with whatever
             | problems we have right now and forever.
             | 
             | Honestly, it sounds better than leaving it to future
             | generations, because we are the future generations.
        
               | dcow wrote:
               | Interesting spin. I guess I wouldn't mind a society where
               | everyone was accountable for the long term consequences
               | of their actions, policy decisions, research, etc...
               | however we achieve it. The problem lately is we don't
               | seem to want to hold people accountable almost because we
               | consider a right to life and success to be overly
               | precious. CEO ran a company into the ground, meh they
               | were just doing their fiduciary duty. Politician
               | demonstrably implemented a policy that increases crime,
               | meh they were just a conduit for the will of their
               | constituents. Perhaps these attitudes would be fixed by
               | longer lifespans.
        
             | hungryforcodes wrote:
             | This a dumb argument. Steve Jobs was a boomer and created
             | the reality we live in today. He definitely wasn't lacking
             | for any innovation or ideas.
        
               | dcow wrote:
               | I like the Apple Pencil.
        
               | hungryforcodes wrote:
               | It's pretty great -- I agree! :)
        
           | ypcx wrote:
           | > The only read problem I see would be overpopulation, and
           | possibly draconian measures to regulate it.
           | 
           | Like, for example, releasing a weaponized virus from a lab.
           | Oh wait...
        
           | wefarrell wrote:
           | There's the problem of the elderly continuing to accumulate
           | wealth and power without ceding any to the younger
           | generations.
           | 
           | It's already happening. Look no further than the geriatric US
           | lawmakers and how out of touch they are with the future.
        
             | drran wrote:
             | Create a startup and disrupt them with a new technology.
        
               | wefarrell wrote:
               | Disrupt the US government or wealth inequality?
        
           | bodhi_mind wrote:
           | What makes us human, aka the "human condition" would
           | definitely change. Motivation, knowledge, relationships,
           | resources. It would be an evolutionary change in a non
           | evolutionary timeline. Pretty crazy.
        
           | aerovistae wrote:
           | I, too, would rather not die. But "the only real problem" you
           | see being overpopulation speaks to a limited effort in
           | thinking out the consequences.
           | 
           | Let's imagine such a solution was available. Let's remember
           | that insulin today is barely affordable to most people, a
           | mere "stay alive and subsist" drug. So it's probably safe to
           | assume that a literal immortality treatment would be only
           | available to the most wealthy and powerful.
           | 
           | So, what we'd get is Nancy Pelosi, Mitch McConnell, Biden,
           | Trump, Putin, Kim Jong-Il, Clarence Thomas, and many others
           | still alive by the year 2250, with no signs of slowing down.
           | 
           | Just imagine how much the world would cease to change if the
           | people running it never experienced turnover. "The
           | unification of humanity" - yeah right! We can't even get a
           | minimum wage increase, and Russia is actively planning an
           | invasion. The only hope for these things is that these people
           | will die, and be replaced by younger generations who grew up
           | with different ideals.
           | 
           | I hope to be cryogenically frozen and one day awake into a
           | world like that of the Culture in the books of Iain Banks,
           | but I know on some level that this isn't just decades or
           | centuries away: it's millennia.
        
             | robocat wrote:
             | > Let's remember that insulin today is barely affordable to
             | most people
             | 
             | If you are talking about the US, then it is a structural
             | problem of your healthcare system:
             | https://pharmanewsintel.com/news/insulin-prices-8x-higher-
             | in...
             | 
             | If you are talking about many countries with socialised
             | healthcare systems (both rich and poor), then it is free or
             | minimal cost to the user. In New Zealand I have diabetic
             | friends that get virtually free checkups and prescriptions
             | (although they do have other out of pocket expenses like
             | time off work, or replacing expensive electronic monitors).
             | 
             | If you are talking worldwide, then many poor people in some
             | countries can't afford insulin but neither can they afford
             | other critical goods.
             | 
             | https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/cost-
             | of-i...
        
             | aksss wrote:
             | Just as likely you'd awaken to planet of the apes or
             | morlocks.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | godelski wrote:
           | I think it's because people think they stop growing. I was
           | listening to Levitt's People I (Mostly) Admire and on a
           | recent show he was talking about progress. How everyone will
           | say in the last 10 years they've changed but if you ask them
           | what they'll be in the next 10 years they think they'll be
           | the same. But there's a lot of insight we often ignore.
           | 
           | I think similarly people ignore political and cultural
           | progress. It's easy to blame the lack of progress on the old
           | guard. But if we look at history we go much faster than that.
           | One great example of this is the legalization of gay
           | marriage. Pee [0] tracks support of it and it's clear that
           | attitude is changing faster than the old people dying.
           | 
           | Also I think part of the problem is we've all gotten used to
           | the Dragon Tyrant[1] that we accept our fate.
           | 
           | [0] https://www.pewforum.org/fact-sheet/changing-attitudes-
           | on-ga...
           | 
           | [1] https://youtu.be/cZYNADOHhVY
        
         | Taylor_OD wrote:
         | You might not. Sign me up. Maybe just maybe if people live
         | longer, they will be more likely to change their beliefs over
         | time.
        
         | metalliqaz wrote:
         | Most people won't have access. Just the ultra elites.
        
         | Animats wrote:
         | _I don 't think we really want immortality or unnatural
         | longevity._
         | 
         | Imagine Putin, Trump, and Xi still running the world in 2100.
        
         | wyre wrote:
         | I would agree "we" don't. Whoever "we" is. The problem is the
         | hypothetical billionaires and politicians expanding their power
         | with elongated lifespans. Imagine the ramifications if Supreme
         | Court justices lived 50+ more years, for one example.
        
           | paulluuk wrote:
           | Of course, we'd have to change how many things work in the
           | world, this specific example seems like a rather simple one
           | to change.
        
             | dcow wrote:
             | How do you propose we do it?
        
             | wyre wrote:
             | Yes, it was a simple example but regardless I have a hard
             | time believing that the needed changes would happen before
             | powerful people achieve and take advantage of
             | supraphysiological lifespans.
             | 
             | Also I'm not sure how simple changing it would be to change
             | Supreme Court justice retirement.
        
           | beambot wrote:
           | Should watch "Altered Carbon" if you haven't already...
        
             | kiba wrote:
             | Fiction is not an argument for against immortality.
        
               | beambot wrote:
               | Wasn't meant to be an argument for or against -- merely a
               | relevant & entertaining piece of science fiction.
        
         | PeterisP wrote:
         | Indeed, I can agree that there are all kinds of practical
         | disadvantages if other people would start living forever.
         | 
         | On the other hand, if we're talking about me or you then
         | suddenly it's different, isn't it? I think I'd choose to take
         | unnatural longevity for myself even if it imposes some problems
         | for the social fabric.
        
           | bschne wrote:
           | That's the crux of it -- visions aside, day-to-day, nobody is
           | going to suddenly "solve aging" for everyone. Progress comes
           | gradually, in the form of everyone's loved ones dying and
           | suffering less often and less early -- and very few people
           | are opposed to that.
           | 
           | You hear about older people fall ill and think things like
           | "I've lived long enough, I don't want to go through the
           | ordeal of treatment X for a .05 probability of living for one
           | more year in bad health" -- but would they see it that way if
           | the treatment were to become much better and safer?
        
         | bsenftner wrote:
         | I say the same goes for business models. About 15 years ago I
         | spent 5 years in the early SaaS space, and it was extremely
         | difficult to convince IT Mgrs and CTOs that software as a
         | service was not some evil plan. Today, it is hard to sell
         | software that is not sold as a service. Why? The old guard
         | management is gone, and tech is managed by people who grew up
         | with SaaS and/or are afraid of managing their own hardware
         | infrastructures.
        
         | foobiekr wrote:
         | I would rather be alive and trying to work that out than dead.
        
       | woke_neoliberal wrote:
       | There have been several companies formed in the past few years
       | whose premise is researching in industry anti-aging or basic
       | science more generally (Calico, Altos Labs, Arcadia, etc.)...
       | Does anyone understand the underlying economics or motivations?
       | They can't be gambles when they raise $B's, and I'm too cynical
       | to believe these are altruistic endeavors. Certainly there is
       | research that cannot be reasonably expected to get funding from
       | academic sources, but what results could be worth the squeeze?
        
         | KentGeek wrote:
         | If this research can reduce the enormous cost of old age
         | frailty, even if not extending life by much, the payoffs are
         | there.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | dannykwells wrote:
         | They can be gambles when they raise billions. Welcome to
         | biotech investing, where even 20 year old public companies with
         | 5B+ market caps can have very little to show for it!
        
         | awillen wrote:
         | The straightforward and cynical answer is that the people
         | funding these things have basically unlimited money, at least
         | for practical purposes, but as with everyone alive, they have
         | limited time. Therefore it's a perfectly rational trade to give
         | up even a substantial percent of their money in exchange for
         | even the possibility of more time (especially because if you
         | have a lot of money, more time means you can turn it into even
         | more money).
         | 
         | But also, while a lot of the headlines are about living longer,
         | the research is largely about treating aging as a disease, or
         | at least a cause of diseases like Alzheimer's, etc. Even if you
         | don't actually extend human lifespan, you keep people healthier
         | much longer, which among other things has enormous economic
         | value (people don't required as much expensive medical
         | treatment and can continue to be productive for longer).
        
         | orangecat wrote:
         | _Does anyone understand the underlying economics or
         | motivations?_
         | 
         | How much would you pay for a treatment to prevent or repair the
         | negative effects of aging? For me the answer is "well over 100%
         | of my net worth".
        
           | JoeJonathan wrote:
           | I'm looking forward to when all the people who can't pay
           | either start murdering wealthy immortals or are galvanized by
           | a strongman who convinces them that this is actually good for
           | them because one day maybe they too could become immortal,
           | and that who they should really hate are immigrants.
        
             | yazaddaruvala wrote:
             | Youth extension therapies will be cheaper for insurance
             | companies than current hospice care. As such it will not
             | cost more than the price of your current insurance
             | premiums. However, while the intellectual property is still
             | protected, there may be some hiccups but they seem
             | unlikely.
             | 
             | Specifically manufacturing of medicine is cheap. The R&D is
             | expensive. As such even if the company owning the IP kept
             | prices artificially high. Facilities in Africa, China,
             | India, etc would reverse engineer them and medical tourism
             | would become even more common. This is a constant threat
             | for COVID vaccine manufacturers today. It's very likely the
             | prices of youth extension are not much greater than the
             | COVID vaccine (I.e. about $20 per dose)
             | 
             | Meanwhile, the population of countries with single payer
             | health care (e.g. Canada, New Zealand, etc), will also
             | reject intellectual property protections for a company
             | halfway around the world. Life extension for the population
             | is more valuable than a few potential tariffs.
        
               | godelski wrote:
               | Definitely this. What people don't get is that an optimal
               | solution in insurance is to have everyone healthy. If
               | everyone is healthy then there's no one drawing money
               | from the pool and the insurance company is only
               | collecting money.
               | 
               | Of course the other optimization is forcing everyone to
               | have insurance when healthy and kicking them off when
               | they get sick.
        
               | simplestats wrote:
               | They have actuaries to make sure they get their profit
               | margin either way. Healthy insurance customers just make
               | sick insurance customers happier since the price goes
               | down.
        
           | yawnxyz wrote:
           | I could imagine living as a subscription model...
        
             | manmal wrote:
             | Maybe with an implanted chip that kills you if you didn't
             | manage to acquire the necessary time currency to live
             | another minute.
             | 
             | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_Time
        
               | ncmncm wrote:
               | We have that, except you need to acquire calories.
        
           | simplestats wrote:
           | Yeah but I'm guessing you wouldn't be willing to pay them
           | that now.
           | 
           | Their point was the high risk versus the high reward. Even if
           | investors gave such money to thousands of longevity startups,
           | would they produce something that makes all the investing pay
           | off better than what they sunk into them? (without pivoting
           | to something other than longevity).
        
           | elwell wrote:
           | "The kingdom of heaven is like treasure hidden in a field.
           | When a man found it, he hid it again, and then in his joy
           | went and sold all he had and bought that field."
        
             | laszlojamf wrote:
             | Nice
        
         | buscoquadnary wrote:
         | I think aultruism is part of it, if you've seen a relative
         | succumb to advancing age especially dementia it can be quite
         | moving.
         | 
         | But another less popular view I have is that many of these
         | people have spent all their life focusing on the things of the
         | world and the money and the grind and the etc, etc. Their focus
         | is on the work the money the grind and so they simply want to
         | continue getting a return on their investment without having it
         | get interrupted by something as pesky as death.
         | 
         | After all no matter who you are Stalin or a poor Russian
         | peasant death is the great equalizer and comes for us all
         | eventually, at which point all the grind, all the work, all the
         | money, doesn't make much different when you are lying in the
         | hospital bed taking your last breaths. The only thing you have
         | at that point is to reflect on your life and what you've done.
         | It is a sobering thought.
        
           | vagrantJin wrote:
           | Im of the opinion that treating diseases caused by a
           | weakening body is a net good.
           | 
           | But you are right ofcourse. All thats left for us is to decay
           | beneath the soil or burn to ashes.
        
         | pessimizer wrote:
         | The wealth of the world is controlled by Baby Boomers, and all
         | of them are too old to die young at this point. You can't take
         | it with you.
        
         | Mandelmus wrote:
         | Researching immortality or unnatural longevity isn't worth the
         | investment for a society because a society of immortals becomes
         | either stagnant or unsustainable. But making individual
         | billionaires immortal is something billionaires might find
         | worth investing in.
        
           | Koshkin wrote:
           | An immortal fascist dictator may be expected to get
           | assassinated early on, versus people waiting for him to die
           | from natural causes.
        
           | kamarg wrote:
           | > Researching immortality or unnatural longevity isn't worth
           | the investment for a society because a society of immortals
           | becomes either stagnant or unsustainable.
           | 
           | This is said with an awful lot of certainty for something
           | that's never been accomplished before. Do people and systems
           | get stuck in their ways? Absolutely. But they also change for
           | better and for worse. There's no guarantee/proof that living
           | forever ends in stagnation or an unsustainable culture.
        
           | whatshisface wrote:
           | > _a society of immortals becomes either stagnant or
           | unsustainable_
           | 
           | Which society of immortals are you referring to?
        
             | SuoDuanDao wrote:
             | Tolkein's Elves :)?
             | 
             | More seriously, it's a common theory that age-related
             | diseases are an evolved adaptation because over time a
             | species must form an equilibrium with its resource base.
        
           | staticassertion wrote:
           | The problem with this conversation is that it's about
           | immortality, which no one is going for right now. The best
           | research is looking at addressing specific age related issues
           | in order to increase your healthy years and, potentially,
           | increase your lifespan by _maybe_ a decade.
           | 
           | But the conversation is always "immortal billionaires".
           | 
           | It's a totally fake problem to talk about that.
        
         | yeeetz wrote:
         | Age-related diseases and degeneration are a massive burden on
         | modern healthcare systems, are difficult to treat because we
         | don't understand many of the underlying pathways, are extremely
         | debilitating for patients, and are difficult for their family
         | and loved ones. Properly understanding these cellular
         | mechanisms and pathways can open up new avenues for treatment
         | for cancer, Alzheimers, and other diseases, all of which would
         | result in lucrative new drugs. The market for age-related
         | diseases is extremely large, and it only grows every year.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | Jack000 wrote:
       | Trying to fix aging for existing humans is like trying to patch a
       | binary that's already running, it would be way easier to build
       | new humans with better source code imo.
        
         | mtsr wrote:
         | But that does nothing to save the rich bastards funding it from
         | dying.
         | 
         | Death sucks, but I'm not sure indefinite life extension is a
         | great idea for humanity at large.
        
           | onemoresoop wrote:
           | Yeah, indefinite life extension sounds like a fools bet.
           | However, extending the human body's abilities in order to
           | enjoy old age better would be something I wouldn't mind.
        
             | kiba wrote:
             | That's essentially life extension. Improving your
             | healthspan is likely linked to longer lifespan.
        
           | hanniabu wrote:
           | It will definitely cripple progress. Even with our current
           | lifespans we see past generations blocking progression with
           | their death grips on powerful positions
        
         | snek_case wrote:
         | I agree. There is no secret magic cure to aging. There's never
         | going to be a pill that makes you younger. The reason the human
         | body ages is that it's a lot easier to build a new human from
         | scratch than it is to repair damaged cells, damaged tissue,
         | etc. Nature doesn't know how to do that effectively, at least
         | not for complex life forms as large as human beings.
         | 
         | Ultimately, I think that if we want to extend life
         | indefinitely, we'll need a strategy that involves replacing
         | organs, replacing brain tissue, and maybe replacing most of the
         | human body. You might be able to boost someone's life span by a
         | few years with stem cells and such, but that's just patching
         | the binary like you said. It's like repairing a home. You can
         | patch drywall, but eventually, to fix a very old house, you
         | might have to rip everything open and replace most of the
         | materials. At some point it's easier to rebuild parts of the
         | house than to keep patching.
         | 
         | IMO, we should be harnessing the fact that nature is very good
         | at growing new healthy tissue. There has to be a way to coax
         | stem cells into growing a new heart, a new liver, or a new arm.
         | We ought to figure out how to do that. Then we could
         | potentially grow you a new liver in a vat based on your own
         | stem cells in a matter of months. We might even be able to
         | automate surgeries such as liver replacement. That kind of
         | technology seems like it should be feasible within 20-30 years
         | with targeted research.
        
         | javert wrote:
         | If you don't even have a compiler, it's easier to patch a
         | binary that's already running than make one from scratch.
         | That's a closer analogy to the situation under discussion.
        
           | sombremesa wrote:
           | Your mom's a compiler.
        
           | Jack000 wrote:
           | There are other ways of doing this even without germline
           | editing - you could for example train a linear transformer
           | model that does DNA phenotype prediction, then just do
           | regular IVF and choose the embryo with lowest predicted risk
           | of (cancer, heart disease, etc)
           | 
           | The only roadblock to doing this right now is access to
           | training data.
        
         | randcraw wrote:
         | But much disease is acquired environmentally, and many repairs
         | are due to normal wear and tear, building anew would be useless
         | to serve both of those ends.
         | 
         | And unless you can figure out why cells age, you can't build
         | new humans who are immune to senescence either.
         | 
         | Defeating the aging process is critical to solving both
         | problems.
        
       | aresant wrote:
       | This all feels like the Ocean's 11 version of biotech
       | 
       | The straight laced CEO as foil with an amazing reputation and a
       | ticking biological clock (1)
       | 
       | The mad scientist known for mixing human and monkey embryos (2)
       | 
       | The beautiful and brilliant husband & wife whiz kid team (3)
       | 
       | All funded by the secretive Russian billionaire with questionable
       | fortune originations (4)
       | 
       | Grabbing the popcorn
       | 
       | (1) https://altoslabs.com/team/executive-leadership/hal-barron/
       | 
       | (2) https://altoslabs.com/team/scientific-leadership/juan-
       | carlos...
       | 
       | (3) https://altoslabs.com/team/principal-investigators-san-
       | diego... & https://altoslabs.com/team/principal-investigators-
       | san-diego...
       | 
       | (4) https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/05/world/yuri-milner-
       | faceboo...
        
         | iancmceachern wrote:
         | Seems legit, they just need to add the Pharma bro and Rachel
         | Dolezal and it'll be a true shit show.
        
         | whatshisface wrote:
         | You are forgetting the iron law of real-life business stories:
         | the better they seem, the worse they are.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | varelse wrote:
           | From what I have heard the CEO is not only worse than you
           | imagine, he is worse than you can imagine. But it's all
           | scuttlebutt and hearsay for now. Rich aging VC got to reach
           | for those stars...
           | 
           | http://www.cafepharma.com/boards/threads/hal-barron-racks-
           | up...
           | 
           | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/banks-ready-34-billion-
           | financ...
        
           | 0xBABAD00C wrote:
           | People just want shiny stories and plausible deniability.
           | It's pretty much subconscious risk management. Then you have
           | people who play the next-level game of exploring this risk
           | management heuristic, hence -- pretty young people with
           | pedigree scamming the old money.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | moralestapia wrote:
           | >the better they seem, the worse they are
           | 
           | Is this common knowledge? I've seen it empirically but I
           | don't know how much is that a widespread feeling. (Not being
           | snark or sarcastic).
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | whatshisface wrote:
             | I think it's a principle everyone knows but nobody can
             | bring themselves to put in to practice.
        
             | openknot wrote:
             | I suspect the recent Elizabeth Holmes conviction of
             | investor fraud at Theranos might contribute to the idea of
             | flashy names propping up an unsustainable idea (e.g. with
             | so many high-ranking names in the US military establishment
             | previously supporting the company).
             | 
             | I'm not aware of other recent high-profile examples, though
             | I would be interested in learning about them.
        
               | moralestapia wrote:
               | Adam Neumann/WeWork, Doug Evans/Juicero; there's plenty
               | of 'em.
               | 
               | A few more for real scam connoisseur's:
               | 
               | Stacy Spikes/MoviePass (70M+ for selling dollars at a
               | penny; outstanding growth and metrics though, if only the
               | "lose on every sale but make it up in volume" stance ever
               | worked -\\_(tsu)_/-)
               | 
               | Steve Newcomb/famo.us (30M+ seed funding for what was
               | essentially a shitty JS library)
               | 
               | Bill Nguyen/Color (40m+ seed funding for a photo app with
               | no extra features; you know, like the one that comes for
               | free in your phone ..., but with ads, ... also a social
               | network? no one really knew, not even them)
        
               | whatshisface wrote:
               | Every high-profile failure of the last century fits the
               | bill, because bad business teams cannot get invested in,
               | by definition, without looking good.
               | 
               | Good business teams tend to be good in the details, which
               | leads to them struggling to find willing audiences.
        
         | ethbr0 wrote:
         | To be fair: there are some areas of research [0][1] which
         | cannot but help sound like fantasy.
         | 
         | Even were they to be pursued with the utmost rigor. Which by
         | definition they can't be, because the very people and
         | institutions required to do so would shy away because it's too
         | fantastic of an endeavor.
         | 
         | So here's to the dreamers! It's your (Russian oligarch) money,
         | break a leg!
         | 
         | [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biosphere_2
         | 
         | [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/02/magazine/dead-pig-
         | brains-...
        
           | whatshisface wrote:
           | Biosphere 2 didn't turn out very well if I'm remembering the
           | story right.
        
         | silksowed wrote:
         | simulation esque
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | oliv__ wrote:
         | The mad scientist really looks the part
        
       | smagikern wrote:
       | Bee pollen must be checked as anti aging agent. It not one
       | miracle cure but thing of big puzzle. So i guess flower pollen
       | collected by bee - must prolong 30-40 additional years at once.
       | +Melatonin + NAC+ vitamin C + resveratrol + all bags of vitamin
       | and mineral essentional to human being.
       | 
       | Also daily yougurt dose must saving life like not one product
       | before.
        
       | Pigalowda wrote:
       | Maybe I'm interpreting the article wrong but it looks like
       | they're going to try temporarily activating a handful of
       | transcription factors (Yamanaka) through a crispr mediated gene
       | alteration/insertion.
       | 
       | I suppose if you created a viral vector that injected an mRNA
       | with a nuclear localization signal - what would you use to
       | activate it? Include a steroid promoter (or other) and co-inject
       | with cortisone? None of my prediction needs crispr though so i
       | don't think that's what they'll do.
       | 
       | They'll also need to address cellular debris/degradation products
       | as well as gene issues. I'm sure lipofuscin, anthracotic plaque,
       | tau tangles, amyloid plaques, oxidative damage, non-enzymatic
       | glycosylation, etc will all ultimately need to be addressed.
       | 
       | I hope they do skin first, I'm tired of looking like a wrinkle.
        
         | alkonaut wrote:
         | > I hope they do skin first, I'm tired of looking like a
         | wrinkle.
         | 
         | Imagine inventing a cream that _actually_ makes skin look
         | younger, and then realizing people have tried to sell that
         | (without delivering) for a century so no one will believe you.
        
           | Pigalowda wrote:
           | The inventor can go old school and use it personally until it
           | catches on with friends/family. Or is this a monkeys paw kind
           | of cream?
           | 
           | What about cream that works for 10-20 years but ends with
           | rapidly progressive multifocal melanoma? I would probably
           | still do it if i was 65-70 years old.
        
       | karimf wrote:
       | Another article covering this with an interesting quote, "Mid-
       | life crisis? It's been said that young people dream of being
       | rich, and rich people dream of being young." [0]
       | 
       | [0] https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/09/04/1034364/altos-
       | la...
        
         | moralestapia wrote:
         | <removed>
        
           | bricee98 wrote:
           | I'm no demographer, but I would hazard a guess that >1% of
           | folks are young
        
             | moralestapia wrote:
             | I messed up, I wanted to say that very few people are rich
             | + young, actually.
        
               | bricee98 wrote:
               | Understood haha! Just joking around :)
        
       | lnxg33k1 wrote:
       | Guess we're never going to retire
        
         | silksowed wrote:
         | even a year of additional lifespan is sure to bankrupt the
         | pension/retirement liabilities that seem to already hang by a
         | thread
        
       | maradona_yolo wrote:
       | instead of dreaming of immortality, get off this dumb ass site
       | and do something meaningful with your waning youth! and who wants
       | to live forever in this hellscape anyways? just more of the same
       | hollow experience.
        
         | yeeetz wrote:
         | Nah, I'm vibing.
        
           | silksowed wrote:
           | vibes eternal? sign me up
        
           | maradona_yolo wrote:
        
           | sockaddr wrote:
           | Likewise
        
             | maradona_yolo wrote:
             | more dead than alive i would say
        
       | darkstar999 wrote:
       | Any thoughts on how these efforts could conflict with our climate
       | goals? Should we have an age ceiling? (that sounds awful, but so
       | does the idea of everyone living to 150)
        
         | savant_penguin wrote:
        
         | HWR_14 wrote:
         | There will be a bump as people live longer, but, assuming
         | fertility is extended by similar amounts of time, it will just
         | lead to people delaying having kids until they're pushing 80 or
         | so.
        
         | godelski wrote:
         | People would have a harder time pushing off climate problems
         | because they themselves have to face the consequences, not
         | their children.
         | 
         | I think a society that lives hundreds of years will have better
         | future foresight. Similar to how when you get older 5 or 10
         | years doesn't seem nearly as long and you make many more
         | decisions at these scales regularly.
        
         | michaelbarton wrote:
         | That's a great question. I know almost nothing about climate
         | science. I assume though that it's directly tied to human
         | consumption, and more people years means more consumption.
        
       | varelse wrote:
       | There's 6 years of free beer longevity just figuring out what the
       | United States is doing incorrectly and what Hong Kong is doing
       | right. I wonder what that's actually worth.
       | 
       | https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/life-expectancy/
        
       | flipchart wrote:
       | https://archive.is/KHPVe
        
       | VirusNewbie wrote:
       | People have been trying to "cure cancer" for a while, and though
       | there is some success, we have many more cure for mice, no?
       | 
       | However, I have not heard of even a 10 year old lab mouse that
       | has the health of a young mouse. Isn't that a bad sign we can't
       | even slow aging (beyond fractional amounts) in a mouse?
        
         | patall wrote:
         | Both your arguments share one feature: rapid iterations. It's
         | much easier to iterate over various cancer
         | factors/treatments/conditions when the duration of a single
         | mouse experiment is in the range of maybe 6 months. But when
         | you want a mouse to live for 10 years your iterations take 10
         | years. And you cannot do the research anymore with PhD students
         | or postdocs because they aren't with you for long enough. A
         | problem that actually arises right now in organoid research as
         | human organs, for some reason, need in the order of 9 months to
         | fully develop. And 9 months plus learning, experimental
         | planning, analysis and thesis writing gets you uncomfortable
         | close to the 3-4 years a PhD typically takes (or at least
         | doesn't allow much back and forth iterating).
        
         | odyssey7 wrote:
         | This reasoning depends on how much effort has gone into the two
         | goals.
         | 
         | Cancer therapies are a proven business model, so a lot of R&D
         | funding has been poured into searching for them.
         | 
         | I'm not sure how comparably much has gone into slowing mouse
         | aging.
        
         | grishka wrote:
         | Aging is not an irreversible process like most people think it
         | is. It would make much more sense to research rejuvenation than
         | to try to cure various age-related conditions individually.
         | 
         | In general: cells see signaling molecules in the bloodstream
         | and "act their age" according to these signals. It's a self-
         | sustaining process too. Google "heterochromic parabiosis" for
         | actual research papers. It's impressive stuff.
        
       | lbriner wrote:
       | Isn;t one of the problems that not everyone is a net benefit to
       | society so if they already cause 70 years of disturbance, who
       | would want them living another 70? It;s one thing for an Elon
       | Musk type who has loads to do and never wants to die but I can't
       | really see this happening unless, I guess, it is an option.
       | 
       | "Dear Mr Smith, you are getting a bit old and to be honest, you
       | haven't made a great stab at life. However for only $299.99, you
       | can have this injection which will give you another 50 years."
        
         | jaystraw wrote:
         | Reminds me of 2 B R 0 2 B by Kurt Vonnegut, just the opposite
         | since they had a quota and no one could be born unless someone
         | died:
         | 
         | "Thank you, sir," said the hostess. "Your city thanks you; your
         | country thanks you; your planet thanks you. But the deepest
         | thanks of all is from all of the future generations."
        
       | smm11 wrote:
       | If we'd all just cleaned up diets and got in shape, Covid
       | wouldn't have been such a big deal.
       | 
       | You can do lots, such as diet and exercise, to live better and
       | longer, but nobody does. We want a magic pill.
        
         | Filligree wrote:
         | To live a few years longer, at most, and you might still get
         | unlucky.
         | 
         | There is no magic. Our bodies are machines, and one day we'll
         | figure out how to repair them. That day might not be today, but
         | I will never object to anyone working to bring it closer.
        
         | hooande wrote:
         | This view is both boorish and ignorant. There are many types of
         | coronaviruses, including MERS and SARS. They can't be mitigated
         | through "diet and exercise". These diseases often occur in
         | parts of the world with much lower obesity rates than the West
         | 
         | Further, the idea that you won't get a serious respiratory
         | virus if you just exercise and diet is offensive. You're just
         | trying to reduce something that is incredibly complex into a
         | bumper sticker slogan that you can wrap your mind around with
         | the least amount of effort.
        
           | smm11 wrote:
           | My comment addressed Covid-19 and the United States, sorry I
           | was unclear.
           | 
           | Seems to me that if you follow an anti-inflammatory routine,
           | smoke weed, and are physically fit, you stand a better chance
           | than others of handling Covid.
        
         | orangecat wrote:
         | _If we 'd all just cleaned up diets and got in shape, Covid
         | wouldn't have been such a big deal._
         | 
         | It might have been somewhat better, but Covid is vastly more
         | dangerous to the elderly than the young, and you're not getting
         | around that with diet and exercise.
         | 
         |  _You can do lots, such as diet and exercise, to live better
         | and longer_
         | 
         | None of which is going to give an 80 year old the strength,
         | mobility, and cognitive capacity they had when they were 30.
        
         | dQw4w9WgXcQ wrote:
         | Not only that but with universal healthcare meaning that I'm
         | subsidizing someone else's poor health habits, I want everyone
         | on a government-prescribed workout + diet plan ASAP. Then again
         | maybe COVID has been a blessing for culling the weak with
         | minimal end-of-life costs, natural selection and all. Not going
         | to be a popular opinion, but that's the emotionless conclusions
         | of a purely scientific worldview.
        
           | nebula8804 wrote:
           | With universal healthcare you can start to work on
           | environment as well. There should be no "food deserts" in the
           | richest country in the world but this is the reality we are
           | in. HFCS should be curtailed so that as a regular citizen at
           | any income level, you have access to food with real nutrition
           | and can easily avoid sugar.
           | 
           | [1]:https://www.aecf.org/blog/exploring-americas-food-deserts
           | 
           | It starts with Universal Healthcare (to stop the so called
           | "bleeding") but expands with cooperation with the FDA to
           | eliminate the symptoms that cause people to fall into these
           | addictive habits. The end result should be lower health costs
           | for you and everyone else and an overall more dynamic society
           | (since a healthy society can work better than an unhealthy
           | society).
        
           | hanniabu wrote:
           | > Not only that but with universal healthcare meaning that
           | I'm subsidizing someone else's poor health habits
           | 
           | Fyi you're doing that with your insurance too
        
       | hungryforcodes wrote:
       | Let's do a moonshot -- make it 3 trillion.
        
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