[HN Gopher] Gambler's Fallacy and the Regression to the Mean
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       Gambler's Fallacy and the Regression to the Mean
        
       Author : allthebest
       Score  : 15 points
       Date   : 2022-01-07 21:52 UTC (1 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (theness.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (theness.com)
        
       | roenxi wrote:
       | It is very annoying in business. Arguing that two outcomes are
       | equally likely when one has happened many more times than the
       | other is an exercise in frustration. It takes a certain level of
       | courage, charisma and stubbornness to argue that there is no
       | evidence that 2nd best is just as good as best when there is a
       | measurable difference between two options.
       | 
       | This is a big contributor to why markets perform so well in my
       | humble opinion. People who see past the gambler's fallacy to the
       | actual odds of things working get rewarded, and the people who
       | assume the current leader _must_ be doing something different and
       | better than the competition get punished.
       | 
       | > When your variable disease is expressing its worst symptoms,
       | you are likely to feel better in the future
       | 
       | This is the influence of time & the healing process, not a
       | regression to the mean. Symptoms in a given sickness' progression
       | aren't random variables in a practical sense. It goes no symptoms
       | -> bad symptoms -> lingering symptoms -> better (or permanent
       | symptoms, bad luck :[ ).
        
         | jldugger wrote:
         | > Arguing that two outcomes are equally likely when one has
         | happened many more times than the other is an exercise in
         | frustration
         | 
         | Are they actually equally likely though? Perhaps there comes a
         | point where one must consider observed outcomes match with
         | assumed probabilities.
         | 
         | Or are you just having arguments about whether the unfavored
         | outcome is 'overdue.'
        
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       (page generated 2022-01-07 23:00 UTC)