[HN Gopher] Farmers facing fertiliser sticker shock may cut use,...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Farmers facing fertiliser sticker shock may cut use,raising food
       security risks
        
       Author : jelliclesfarm
       Score  : 80 points
       Date   : 2022-01-06 18:03 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.reuters.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.reuters.com)
        
       | 99_00 wrote:
       | More "surprises" like this is coming in the future.
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel_divestment
        
       | _rpd wrote:
       | A more in depth look at the factors causing high fertilizer
       | prices:
       | 
       | https://www.fb.org/market-intel/too-many-to-count-factors-dr...
       | 
       | tl;dr: high natural gas prices, weather caused production delays,
       | COVID caused production/shipping delays, power shortages in China
       | (a major exporter) resulting in lower production
        
       | akeck wrote:
       | "Dirt to Soil" by Gabe Brown might start getting more popular. He
       | started investigating no-till, etc. after several successive
       | years of crop failures and thus not being able to afford the
       | normal inputs for industrial farming.
        
         | rmason wrote:
         | Adopting no-till techniques will save soil but won't
         | appreciably reduce your fertilizer use. I'd even go so far as
         | to say if you do it right the soil will be healthier.
         | 
         | But if you use cover crops and especially rotate out of alfalfa
         | you can safely reduce nitrogen use because of the carryover of
         | nitrogen in the soil.
        
           | TaylorAlexander wrote:
           | All the no till people I follow don't use chemical
           | fertilizer(eg JM Fortier). They do add compost to their soil
           | but that's not fertilizer.
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | Panino wrote:
         | And his farm has above-average yields compared to other area
         | farms, but also _way higher_ profits. Brown Ranch practices
         | Regenerative Agriculture.
         | 
         | If I was president I'd ask Gabe Brown to run USDA.
        
           | akeck wrote:
           | Exactly. I watched one of his presentations. His burn rate is
           | quite low since he needs many fewer inputs to farm.
        
           | hosh wrote:
           | There is a government agency that goes around trying to teach
           | farmers how to farm in a way to bring fertility back to soil
           | life, and have even parterned with people farming with notill
           | to talk to conventional farmers.
           | 
           | Despite going around making presentations for years, it is
           | still a hard sell to farmers.
           | 
           | Examples (and I am paraphrasing not quoting):
           | 
           | "What if my crop goes bad? Or hail? How do I deal with
           | pests?" "Polycropping means that you'll have some kind of
           | crop even if some of them don't do well, or the market
           | crashes on one of them"
           | 
           | "I can't run my farm and make a profit without the subsidies"
           | "I was able to get off of subsidies and my farm is more
           | profitable and resilient than it had been before."
           | 
           | "I'd still have to get manure from somewhere and prices will
           | go up" "I run a livestock operation on the fallow fields.
           | They help fertilize the fields until I put crops back on
           | them. I sell both crops and livestock."
           | 
           | And so on.
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | Much like science advances with the death of the older
             | generation, farming advances as the old farmers die. The
             | average farmer is something like 55 years old. Young
             | farmers are far more willing in generation to try new
             | things.
             | 
             | No till is standard farming practice these days. You can't
             | get government subsides in many cases if you do traditional
             | tilling. (there are other types of tilling allowed - they
             | are much better for the soil)
        
               | hosh wrote:
               | Well ... notill is something that some indigenous people
               | had as a practice. I think we lost a lot more in our
               | shift to modernity. We've been living on this narrative
               | that what comes next is necessarily better than what came
               | before, and while there are some progress, that narrative
               | doesn't hold up to be universally true.
               | 
               | https://www.atnesa.org/contil/contil-shetto-
               | indigenous.pdf
               | 
               | If folks thought notill is so revolutionary, wait 'til
               | they see perennial food forests and agroforestry. Those
               | also have indigenous roots.
        
           | bsder wrote:
           | Most of the issues we have in our system in the US is due to
           | the fact that we really don't have _farms_ --we have gigantic
           | _agribusinesses_.
           | 
           | Most of the "family farms" have been driven out of business
           | or have had to scale up to industrial levels (thus becoming
           | part of the problem).
           | 
           | How does "Regenerative Agriculture" address the scaling
           | problem?
        
       | thowaway97351 wrote:
        
         | bee_rider wrote:
         | This website was originally about startups. I bet if your farm
         | can produce anything near as much as the competition without
         | using modern fertilizers, you could pick up some investors here
         | by detailing your process and results.
        
           | jelliclesfarm wrote:
           | Playground Global was looking at fertilizer making by
           | skipping Haber Bosch process entirely...I don't know how far
           | along they are but there are a few companies/startups that
           | are looking at this space.
           | 
           | Perhaps quantum computing might catch on sooner than we hope
           | and new breakthroughs in material science?
        
       | mwattsun wrote:
       | I remember this from awhile back about how food insecurity
       | sparked instability in N. African and Middle Eastern countries
       | 
       |  _Lack of access to affordable food has proven to trigger
       | revolutions and spark unrest across the world_
       | 
       | https://www.csis.org/analysis/food-insecurity-conflict-and-s...
        
         | lotsofpulp wrote:
         | That seems like an obvious truth.
        
           | mwattsun wrote:
           | I thought the same thing, but I like to fact check
        
         | switch007 wrote:
         | It's a huge reason why food is relatively cheap in most of the
         | EU, I believe.
        
       | shrubble wrote:
       | A related problem is that seeds for next year's crop has gone up
       | a lot also.
       | 
       | For example, last year peas for seed were about $8 per bushel.
       | Now, $25 per bushel.
       | 
       | So both fertilizer and seed costs have increased; which changes
       | the calculus of how many acres the farmer can afford to plant.
        
       | Reichhardt wrote:
       | China already suspended Phosphate exports in July 2021:
       | 
       | https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-exports-fertilisers...
        
       | downrightmike wrote:
       | Considering how much is overused and washes into rivers and
       | oceans and creates dead zones. This is a really good thing. We
       | over produce as is.
        
         | vorpalhex wrote:
         | Food prices going up hurts the poor the most, especially base
         | commodities like corn and soy.
        
         | picsao wrote:
         | The last cut in american over production resulted in the Arab-
         | spring revolution wave and the Syrian Civil War.
        
         | throwaway1777 wrote:
         | What an odd rationalization. This is NOT a good thing. Aside
         | from empty shelves, prices will rise from lower production if
         | nothing else and that can lead to all kinds of bad consequences
         | from malnutrition to social unrest.
        
           | drbojingle wrote:
           | He's not wrong though. What he's describing is a silver
           | lining. Optimizing fertilizer application to reduce waste is
           | going to be part of the response to addressing climate
           | change.
        
         | rmason wrote:
         | Most of the nitrogen in our rivers and lakes causing problems
         | isn't from farmers use of fertilizer. Farmers are in a low
         | margin business and if they use too much nitrogen they make
         | less money.
         | 
         | A lot of it used to be caused by manure runoff from large
         | animal operations. But twenty or more years ago laws were
         | changed and regulators focused their attention on correcting
         | this problem. There are always exceptions but mostly this
         | problem is fixed. Farmers have to file plans on which lands
         | gets manure, complete with soil tests showing they're not
         | overdoing it.
         | 
         | I helped farmers in the late nineties fill out these reports in
         | my former career as an agronomist. Back then some larger
         | farmers were either moving to composting or using the manure to
         | power plants creating electricity.
         | 
         | So where is it coming from now? Lawn fertilizer! People over
         | fertilizing their lawns.
        
           | nicoburns wrote:
           | > Lawn fertilizer! People over fertilizing their lawns.
           | 
           | Lawn fertilizer!? I didn't even know that was a thing! Why
           | would you fertilize a lawn. Won't that just make it grow
           | faster and therefore require you to mow it more often?
        
             | Scoundreller wrote:
             | The worst part is people clean off the lawn clippings,
             | which would just decompose into nitrogen that the grass
             | needs in the first place.
        
           | jakear wrote:
           | You seem to know what you're talking about so I have a
           | question. Is it possible that leaving fallen leaves on a lawn
           | for a period of time can help to fertilize that lawn? I
           | experimented with that on my lawn this past fall and while
           | it's too early to make any conclusions I wonder if there's
           | any prior art here?
        
             | xyzzyz wrote:
             | Composted leaves will fertilize it somewhat, but if you
             | just let leaves fall on your lawn, it tends to kill the
             | lawn. I recommend raking into pile, and letting it sit for
             | a year or so (fallen brown leaves compost rather slowly),
             | then you can spread resulting compost. But, unless you have
             | lots of trees, the amount of nitrogen in fallen leaves will
             | be minimal (trees don't like parting with valuable
             | nutrients either).
        
             | aesch wrote:
             | Not an expert, just a gardener. Short answer: just letting
             | leaves fall on your lawn for a period of time is unlikely
             | to provide fertilization, in fact it may hurt your lawn,
             | because the leaves will not break down fast enough and will
             | instead cut off your lawn's access to air and sunlight.
             | 
             | Long answer: You need to break down the organic matter in
             | the leaves through composting. To speed up composting you
             | want the right proportions of both brown (carbon - your
             | leaves) and green (nitrogen) matter, the right moisture
             | levels, and access to oxygen, usually in a large pile to
             | create the perfect environment for the microorganisms that
             | break down the matter. Your leaves are a great base for
             | your compost, I always use mine, but you will probably need
             | to put a little sweat equity into it, as well as kitchen
             | scraps, lawn cuttings, etc. to get the right proportion of
             | greens.
        
           | frenchyatwork wrote:
           | So humanity's stupidest form of cultivation strikes again.
        
       | aussiegreenie wrote:
       | Farmers are facing countless "sticker shocks" with the most
       | important being water. Most farming is not either ecologically or
       | financially sustainable.
       | 
       | Major changes are need to farming.
        
       | GnarfGnarf wrote:
       | Most people don't understand that fertilizer is made from
       | petrochemicals. It's not old-fashioned manure.
        
         | reaperducer wrote:
         | _Most people don 't understand that fertilizer is made from
         | petrochemicals. It's not old-fashioned manure._
         | 
         | Not all fertilizer. But I wouldn't be surprised if the majority
         | of it is made from chemicals.
         | 
         | Chicago's poop gets processed and spread on farms downstate,
         | for example.
         | 
         | Just an hour ago I got a food delivery from a farmer who uses
         | only her own livestock to fertilize her fields.
         | 
         | (As a side note, it's wonderful to see -- since the pandemic --
         | how many farmers where I live have set up web sites so they can
         | deliver their goods from their farms straight to the doorsteps
         | of people living the city, in addition to farmers' markets. So
         | far, I get my beef, pork, eggs, some cheeses, and honey
         | delivered right to my doorman. Still looking for a milk option
         | that isn't raw, or $11.99/gallon.)
        
         | DoreenMichele wrote:
         | This was one of the things I was taught as an environmental
         | studies major: That Peak Oil does not just mean we need to
         | develop alternative energy and alternative transportation. It
         | means we need to also develop alternative means to keep
         | producing enough food to feed our current population.
        
         | cheeseomlit wrote:
         | And some of the toxic by-products of that production are then
         | put into our drinking water instead of being properly disposed
         | of
         | 
         | https://www.cdc.gov/fluoridation/engineering/engineering-sho...
         | 
         | >The three fluoride additives used for water fluoridation are
         | derived principally from phosphate fertilizer production.
        
           | AlexandrB wrote:
           | The source of something doesn't tell you much about its
           | health effects. A lot of life saving drugs are created using
           | industrial processes involving many nasty chemicals. This is
           | not too far from the logic of signing a petition against
           | dihydrogen monoxide because it sounds like a scary chemical.
        
           | lovich wrote:
           | Is fluoride in our drinking water a problem? I happen to like
           | my teeth
        
             | OJFord wrote:
             | Some locales (all of the USA, I believe) add it for the
             | _benefit_ of teeth.
             | 
             | (Like anything there's presumably a poisonous dosage! But)
             | no, not a problem.
        
             | CoastalCoder wrote:
             | If you'll forgive my use of an anecdote...
             | 
             | I stopped getting cavities when I started using a good
             | electric toothbrush, not when I started drinking
             | fluoridated water.
             | 
             | So no idea if the statistics bear this out, but personally
             | I don't care much about the fluoride.
        
               | AlexandrB wrote:
               | I stopped getting tons of cavities when I started
               | drinking fluoridated water as a kid. I didn't have an
               | electric toothbrush until well into my 20s. So I guess
               | that's 2 data points? What now?
        
               | CoastalCoder wrote:
               | I wasn't trying to demonstrate that brushing trumps
               | fluoride. I shared my experience in the hope it would
               | spark interesting discussion.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | I know a dentist in a suburb of a city that does not
               | fluoridate. They said they can guess whether or not the
               | patient grew up in the city or outside the city simply
               | based on their dental history.
        
             | machinerychorus wrote:
             | While it is typically railed against by crackpots, it also
             | shouldn't be assumed to be safe/correct. We've been adding
             | flouride to water for a long time, without much
             | understanding of the risks, benefits, or proper dosage.
             | Here's an article from the atlantic (not a crackpot news
             | source) which goes into detail:
             | https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/04/why-
             | flu...
        
               | worik wrote:
               | https://www.cochrane.org/CD010856/ORAL_water-
               | fluoridation-pr...
               | 
               | Key results
               | 
               | Our review found that water fluoridation is effective at
               | reducing levels of tooth decay among children. The
               | introduction of water fluoridation resulted in children
               | having 35% fewer decayed, missing and filled baby teeth
               | and 26% fewer decayed, missing and filled permanent
               | teeth. We also found that fluoridation led to a 15%
               | increase in children with no decay in their baby teeth
               | and a 14% increase in children with no decay in their
               | permanent teeth. These results are based predominantly on
               | old studies and may not be applicable today.
        
               | xboxnolifes wrote:
               | There is basically consensus that fluoride in the
               | drinking water is good for teeth. The worry is that
               | consuming it may have other negative effects unrelated to
               | teeth. We know that fluoride in higher dosage isn't good
               | to be consumed, but what about long term, small dosage
               | exposure?
        
             | photochemsyn wrote:
             | Fluoride in water doesn't do anything for teeth. The
             | fluoridation treatments dentists use are effective but
             | that's a concentrated paste applied for some minutes to the
             | teeth in a dentist's chair. Diluted fluoride in the water
             | supply has zero benefit for teeth.
        
               | AlexandrB wrote:
               | Research seems to disagree with you[1]. Do you have a
               | citation for your assertion?
               | 
               | [1] https://cumming.ucalgary.ca/news/calgary-childrens-
               | dental-he...
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | throwaway5752 wrote:
         | NPK is the acronym for basic plant nutrients. Others might know
         | better than me, but you have those three (nitrogen, phosphate,
         | and potassium) for primary fertilizer nutrients. Of those P is
         | mined (apatite) from rock ore and K is mined from rock ore or
         | brine. Mining and ore process has energy inputs couple to oil
         | price, granted. Nitrogen is ammonia via HB, predominately with
         | nat gas feedstock.
         | 
         | Sometimes we get down these tangents and it derails from the
         | core topic. This is terrible and unwelcome news.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | photochemsyn wrote:
         | Phosphate fertilizer is mostly mined. Ammonia-based (NH3)
         | fertilizers are made from atmospheric N2 via hydrogenation, and
         | the source of the hydrogen can be water. The whole process
         | (Haber-Bosch) can be renewably powered with no fossil fuels in
         | other words.
        
           | nostrademons wrote:
           | "Can be" is pretty critical. Most hydrogen is currently
           | produced from methane (natural gas) via steam reforming. The
           | barriers toward renewable production are economic, not
           | technological, but at current prices natural gas is a lot
           | cheaper than electrolysis.
           | 
           | On the plus side, it's good to know that fertilizer isn't a
           | blocker from going fossil-fuel free.
        
             | londons_explore wrote:
             | Fertilizer can be carbon free (ammonia from hydrogen from
             | water + sun), but about 0% of the world's supply is that.
             | All the hydrogen comes from natural gas.
             | 
             | Steel can be made carbon free, but so far it's all made in
             | a blast furnace with a lot of coal.
             | 
             | Aluminium can be carbon free (electricity), but so far we
             | reduce carbon electrodes and release a lot of CO2 because
             | carbon is cheaper than using extra electricity.
             | 
             | All it would take is the right global tax or incentive
             | structure and all these industries would quickly move over,
             | saving us 20+% of CO2 emissions!
        
               | sophacles wrote:
               | Sorry for being pedantic, but isn't carbon-free steel
               | just iron?
        
               | bsder wrote:
               | The carbon in the steel is a tiny fraction of the carbon
               | used to make coke which fuels the process.
               | 
               | This is similar to plastics. Sure, plastics use
               | petroleum. However, if we quit burning petroleum for
               | cars, suddenly we have 100+ years of petroleum reserves
               | for plastics.
        
       | DavidPeiffer wrote:
       | While not the focus of this article, I'm curious how much of a
       | reduction in fertilizer use we'll see in Iowa and the
       | ramifications for water quality. Overapplication and lack of
       | buffers has lead to incredibly high levels of nitrates making it
       | into the rivers. Because of this, Des Moines is starting on a new
       | $30M well because every year the algae and nitrate levels become
       | too high for safe consumption. It's gone to the Iowa Supreme
       | Court, but no remedy has been required of the communities
       | upstream.
       | 
       | The most of the last two summers the local lake has had an
       | advisory to not swim or do water sports because of the algae.
       | Another article interviewed a water quality professor who
       | basically said "There's no other comparable city that has this
       | issue. Not being able to use the river as the full water supply
       | because of nitrate levels is unheard of."
       | 
       | https://www.iowapublicradio.org/ipr-news/2021-04-22/des-moin...
        
         | mattferderer wrote:
         | This has become a huge issue all over the country where there
         | is a lot of farm land next to lakes & rivers. Another big issue
         | is salt from water softeners & products dumped on roads &
         | driveways to remove ice in the winter.
         | 
         | I'm curious if there exists any companies working on some type
         | of large water supply cleaning method as I don't see people
         | slowing down or reducing any of the above.
        
           | londons_explore wrote:
           | Making mostly-clean water into clean water with reverse
           | osmosis is pretty viable.
           | 
           | It's far cheaper than the reverse osmosis of seawater done in
           | many parts of the world.
        
         | bluGill wrote:
         | Nitrate levels in Iowa were sometimes dangerously high when
         | white settlers first arrived in the early 1800s. (I have no
         | doubt before then too, but I don't have information on what the
         | native tribes or fur trappers dealt with). Nitrates are a
         | natural process in soil, that is what makes Iowa so great for
         | corn farming. Yes farmers are adding more, but even without
         | farmers there would be a problem.
         | 
         | Farmers actually care about this - any nitrate that runs off is
         | nitrate that they paid for and didn't use (or nitrate that they
         | have to pay to replace). That doesn't mean they know how to
         | solve the problem
        
           | keithly wrote:
           | The problem is agricultural practices that lead to increased
           | runoff, not the amount of nitrogen naturally occurring in the
           | soil or the amount applied.
           | 
           | https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/money/agriculture/20.
           | ..
           | 
           | "Nitrate levels in Iowa's major rivers have increased more
           | than threefold since the 1950s, but have stabilized -- and
           | even slightly declined -- in recent decades, according to an
           | in-depth review of available research."
        
         | Scoundreller wrote:
         | I guess the Toledo (the Ohio one) Water Crisis was lost on
         | them.
         | 
         | Could happen to any city on the Great Lakes.
         | 
         | > Lake Erie, which is a source of drinking water for the Toledo
         | water system may have been impacted by a harmful algal bloom
         | (HAB). These organisms are capable of producing a number of
         | toxins that may pose a risk to human and animal health. HABs
         | occur when excess nitrogen and phosphorus are present in lakes
         | and streams. Such nutrients can come from runoff of over-
         | fertilized fields and lawns, from malfunctioning septic systems
         | and from livestock pens.
         | 
         | https://neiwpcc.org/information-center/neiwpcc-reprint-serie...
         | 
         | > It took a serendipitous slug of toxins and the loss of
         | drinking water for a half-million residents to bring home what
         | scientists and government officials in this part of the country
         | have been saying for years: Lake Erie is in trouble, and
         | getting worse by the year.
         | 
         | https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/05/us/lifting-ban-toledo-say...
        
       | sremani wrote:
       | This is a serious problem. Developing world and food insecure
       | nations will see heads roll and experience famine. Worried about
       | global inflation on food.
        
         | doitLP wrote:
         | This was my first thought after I understood what locking down
         | the world meant. I wonder if the death toll with be worth it in
         | the final analysis.
        
       | Robotbeat wrote:
       | By the way, ammonia is basically the easiest market for clean
       | hydrogen (makes WAY more sense than hydrogen for transportation).
       | Ammonia actually doesn't use hydrocarbons for feedstock at all;
       | it uses nitrogen from the air and hydrogen (usually produced via
       | steam reforming of natural gas, but can be made easily with
       | electricity, as was common before the 1950s when steam reforming
       | took off). It takes about 1kg of hydrogen per 5.7kg of anhydrous
       | ammonia. So if you can make clean hydrogen for $2.5-3/kg, you can
       | make clean ammonia for under $500/tonne in feedstock costs. The
       | current price of anhydrous ammonia has reached above $1300/tonne
       | in some areas of the US in the last few months.
       | 
       | Companies looking into making synthetic natural gas or hydrogen
       | for transport really ought to be focusing on this as near-term
       | low-hanging fruit where you have the option of actually
       | eliminating steam reforming needed for fossil fuels and use
       | electrically synthesized hydrogen as a direct feedstock instead.
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | Ammonia may be a good option for fueling merchant ships.
         | 
         | https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54511743
        
         | philipkglass wrote:
         | Electrolytic hydrogen projects are ramping up quickly now. It
         | will take a few years for those planned now to be completed.
         | Here's a recently announced Egyptian project:
         | 
         |  _Scatec has entered into an agreement with Fertiglobe plc, a
         | leading ammonia producer jointly owned by OCI N.V. and Abu
         | Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), and The Sovereign Fund of
         | Egypt (TSFE), to jointly develop a 50-100MW green hydrogen
         | facility as feedstock for green ammonia production._
         | 
         | https://scatec.com/2021/10/14/scatec-partners-with-fertiglob...
         | 
         | In the 1960s Egypt had the world's largest electrolytic
         | hydrogen plant powered by hydroelectricity from the Aswan Dam,
         | also for making fertilizer. Now renewable electricity from
         | other sources is making electricity-to-ammonia practical again.
         | 
         |  _In energy terms, the [fertilizer] industry is dominated by
         | the Kima plant at Aswan which at full production would use 7.6
         | x 10^15 joules of energy per annum to produce 112,000 tonnes of
         | nitrogen as prilled calcium ammonium nitrate. The plant was*
         | built in 1960 to utilize the spare hydropower available from
         | the Aswan Dam to produce hydrogen by electrolysis for ammonia
         | manufacture. The plant has operated successfully since its
         | inception and is currently one of the largest plants in the
         | country._
         | 
         | From U.S. Department of Energy report, "An Assessment of the
         | Energy Requirements and Selected Options Facing Major Consumers
         | Within the Eyptian Industrial and Agricultural Sectors", 1978
         | 
         | https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/5610349
        
       | jelliclesfarm wrote:
       | Most people are not aware that we have less than 60 years of
       | phosphate reserves left. It's not a renewable resource.
        
         | lambdaba wrote:
         | Wikipedia says 260 years:
         | 
         | > In 2021, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimated
         | that economically extractable phosphate rock reserves worldwide
         | are 71 billion tons, while world mining production in 2020 was
         | 223 million tons. Assuming zero growth, the reserves would thus
         | last for 260 years.
        
           | philipkglass wrote:
           | Phosphorus is one of the more common elements on Earth. It's
           | more common than carbon, sulfur, or nitrogen (to name 3 other
           | elements essential to life):
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abundance_of_elements_in_Earth.
           | ..
           | 
           | Lower grade phosphorus-bearing minerals could also be refined
           | to concentrate the phosphorus. But there's little current
           | incentive to do so when the tried-and-true process starting
           | with phosphate rock will be adequate for a couple more
           | centuries.
        
         | kashkhan wrote:
         | have we ever "run out" of a non-renewable resource? Non-
         | renewables just become more expensive when easily found
         | reserves are exhausted.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | kmeisthax wrote:
           | That's a distinction without a difference. The end result is
           | the same; we lose the ability to make use of the resource in
           | question and have to design alternatives.
        
             | bryanlarsen wrote:
             | By that measure we ran out of copper a long time ago, yet I
             | can still buy it at Home Depot. It's just crazy expensive.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | sokoloff wrote:
           | Silphuim, passenger pigeons, and dodos. Previously, wolly
           | mammoths (and undoubtedly others that we don't know about).
        
             | SamReidHughes wrote:
             | Those are all renewable.
        
               | evan_ wrote:
               | so is petroleum, if you can wait a few hundred million
               | years
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | Fossil fuels probably are as well if you're willing to
               | wait long enough. No amount of waiting will renew one of
               | the extinct species listed.
        
               | celticninja wrote:
               | I dont think this would apply to coal. There are
               | organisms that can use the wood that would otherwise need
               | to fossilize to create coal. These organisms did not
               | exist the first time round.
        
       | bigthymer wrote:
       | They could also switch to less fertilizer intensive crops. I
       | think soybeans require less than corn. Farmers commonly switch
       | between the two depending on market prices. Not a farmer but I
       | think I read it somewhere...maybe 80% sure of this...
        
         | opinion-is-bad wrote:
         | Soybeans and corn can often be grown in the same areas, and
         | corn uses more fertilizer than soybeans so your logic checks
         | out. The problem is that corn produces more calories per acre
         | than soybeans (or any other crop), so changing over large
         | amounts of production could still result in a food shortage
         | even if the total acres remains the same.
        
           | zdragnar wrote:
           | We could also cut the mandates for ethanol produced from
           | corn- roughly 40% of corn grown goes into making it.
        
             | throwawayboise wrote:
             | A lot of corn also goes to animal feed.
        
               | Scoundreller wrote:
               | When I worked out the numbers, it was about 75% of US
               | corn production going to ethanol and animal feed.
               | 
               | A lot of the other 25% is probably corn syrup.
               | 
               | Burning natural gas to make fertilizer to grow corn (a 2%
               | efficient solar panel) to eventually blend with gasoline
               | is uhhhhh, dumb.
        
             | djrogers wrote:
             | The article, and the problems it references, aren't really
             | expected to be a US thing - it's developing nations, and
             | places where food is already harder to come by...
        
           | wintermutestwin wrote:
           | I'd imagine that the protein in soy is more important to the
           | food supply than a simple measure of calories.
        
           | chickenpotpie wrote:
           | We could also stop feeding so much of these plants to animals
           | and start feeding them to ourselves and cut our growing
           | immensely. We're feeding about 3/4 of our soybeans to
           | animals, but they're packed with protein that we can digest.
        
         | teslabox wrote:
         | > Farmers commonly switch between the two depending on market
         | prices.
         | 
         | Legume roots have nodules that cultivate bacteria that fix
         | nitrogen. Farmers rotate their fields between corn and
         | soybeans/legumes because the bacteria on legume roots restores
         | the nitrogen in the soil, thereby lessening their fertilizer
         | costs.
         | 
         |  _Biological Nitrogen Fixation:_
         | https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/biological...
         | 
         | This is an inoculant with bacteria for soybeans:
         | https://www.groworganic.com/products/soybean-inoculant?_pos=...
         | 
         | Plants with deep roots pull up nutrients from deep soil. I
         | think corn and soybeans generally don't help with restoring the
         | soil like native plants.
         | 
         |  _A chart comparing root systems of North American prairie
         | plants and bluegrass:_
         | https://www.reddit.com/r/ecology/comments/bxoh43/a_chart_com...
        
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