[HN Gopher] Book Review: The Future of Fusion Energy
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       Book Review: The Future of Fusion Energy
        
       Author : bschne
       Score  : 36 points
       Date   : 2022-01-03 20:03 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (martin.kleppmann.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (martin.kleppmann.com)
        
       | spekcular wrote:
       | What is the practical advantage of fusion power over newer
       | fission reactor designs? If we desire nuclear energy, why not
       | just build out, say, a bunch of molten salt reactors?
       | 
       | It seems that the primary reasons we don't see more nuclear power
       | are 1) it's highly capital intensive (big upfront investment for
       | uncertain reward), and 2) it's expensive to comply with safety
       | regulations. How does fusion solve these problems?
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | There is no practical advantage of fusion power over anything,
         | because it has no practicality of any kind.
         | 
         | We don't see more fission power because whenever a new fission
         | project is started, the majority of the money is siphoned off
         | for political patronage. Construction stretches out over a
         | decade, because once it is finished, the money stops flowing;
         | nobody actually involved wants that ever to happen. If it must
         | happen, it is somewhat better to have a working power plant at
         | the end, but with enough money involved, that is dispensable,
         | as we see in South Carolina.
         | 
         | This contrasts with solar and wind projects. They can start
         | producing almost immediately. It is easy to multiply the cost
         | of a unit of generating capacity (panel, wind turbine) times
         | the number of units, and see what it should cost. There is just
         | too little scope for corruption. (That might be solved, in
         | time.) So, costs keep going down, year over year, driven by
         | healthy competition.
        
           | deeviant wrote:
           | > We don't see more fission power because whenever a new
           | fission project is started, the majority of the money is
           | siphoned off for political patronage.
           | 
           | However bad an over budget nuclear plant is, an under budget
           | one would be worse.
        
         | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
         | Much, _much_ less long-term radioactive waste.
         | 
         | It's a lot more energy, for less fuel, but that may be
         | mitigated by the cost of the reactor.
        
         | pfdietz wrote:
         | There really isn't an overall practical advantage, at least for
         | DT fusion, and this has been known for decades.
         | 
         | http://orcutt.net/weblog/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/The-Trou...
        
           | Symmetry wrote:
           | > Fusion will almost certainly have a lower power density
           | than fission and therefore will require a larger plant to
           | produce the same output. Suppose a fusion plant had to be ten
           | times as big and therefore likely ten times as costly -- as a
           | present-day fission plant to produce the same amount of
           | power.
           | 
           | I don't see how that follows. Different forms of power
           | generation have orders of magnitude differences in costs on a
           | per volume basis. If you're comparing within a type it might
           | make sense, a coal plant 10 times larger probably does cost
           | between 5 and 20 times more. But I don't see any reason to
           | expect a fusion plant to have comparable per volume costs to
           | a light water fission plant. And why is he assuming the cost
           | is per volume rather than per mass?
        
         | Symmetry wrote:
         | Safety is a lot easier to achieve with fusion because it stops
         | producing power instantly when containment fails and the amount
         | of energy in the plasma isn't that high. It's hard to make a
         | fission reactor both large enough for commercial scale and safe
         | without cooling.
         | 
         | The second benefit is not producing high level radioactive
         | waste. With fission you can't really get away from the decay
         | products of your fissile materials, they're intrinsic to the
         | process. With DT fusion you get He4 which is stable and
         | neutrons. The neutrons are dangerous but will either quickly
         | decay or be absorbed by something. By controlling what gets
         | exposed to the neutron flux you can in principle achieve
         | arbitrarily low levels of radioactive waste. That's a serious
         | engineering challenge to get as low as possible but my
         | understanding is that it's not hard to produce much less than
         | with fission. You also want to produce Tritium which will later
         | get consumed in the fusion process leaving only a moderate
         | amount stored at any time so if things go well its not a long
         | term problem. If the storage ruptures in a gentle then it
         | escapes high up into the atmosphere. In the event of a
         | containment breach you're probably going to get super heavy
         | water steam which is an issue.
         | 
         | The regulatory framework is a real concern, depending on how
         | many rules carry over from fission reactors. Back in the 1970s
         | the term "fallout" carried connotations of people dying
         | painfully in hours after exposure which is a different
         | association than people born after the Cold War have. Also
         | electricity generation back then was done on a cost plus basis
         | so the people running the fission plants had every incentive
         | that their costs were increased as much as possible. That isn't
         | how we run our electricity grids any more so there aren't
         | strong forces on the industry side fighting for tighter
         | regulations.
        
           | cogman10 wrote:
           | > It's hard to make a fission reactor both large enough for
           | commercial scale and safe without cooling.
           | 
           | Gen IV reactors all fit that bill. They all have passive
           | safety properties (so, cut the power and the plant shuts
           | down, no nuclear meltdowns) and they have very large outputs
           | (2GW in the largest plants).
           | 
           | > The second benefit is not producing high level radioactive
           | waste. With fission you can't really get away from the decay
           | products of your fissile materials, they're intrinsic to the
           | process.
           | 
           | Again, Gen IV reactors are much better than previous reactors
           | in this aspect. While they do produce radio active waste,
           | it's generally far more used (producing less waste) and
           | radioactive for a far shorter time (hundreds of years vs
           | 1000s).
           | 
           | > The regulatory framework is a real concern, depending on
           | how many rules carry over from fission reactors.
           | 
           | This is the big sticking point that hurts the bottom line of
           | fission reactors and will hurt fusion reactors. Without
           | changes to the laws, nuclear power plants are going to have a
           | rough time turning a profit. They mostly aren't unprofitable
           | because of construction cost, but rather regulatory overhead.
           | 
           | It takes over 10 years to construct and turn on new reactors
           | in the US, which is a major problem.
        
             | baq wrote:
             | Only 10? Do you have a source for that? I seriously thought
             | it's more like 20.
        
               | cogman10 wrote:
               | You are probably right. I'm relying on my fuzzy memory
               | for that number (I've looked it up in the past).
               | 
               | This article [1] says 5 years to license, 5->7 years to
               | build, and then the verification time with the electric
               | company before it can be switched on.
               | 
               | [1] http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2017/ph241/park-k2/
        
       | ncmncm wrote:
       | The problem is that even if they were to get it working, it would
       | still be several times as expensive to operate as the equivalent
       | fission plant, which is not now competitive, and gets less so
       | each year. So, at this stage there is no expectation of practical
       | energy output, and thus only academic interest.
        
         | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
         | Why? Fission is expensive partly because of the safety
         | requirements- and for good reason. Fusion is far safer.
        
           | cogman10 wrote:
           | Fission is expensive because of the ungodly amount of red
           | tape that needs to be cut before groudbreaking can happen.
           | 
           | Fusion will face much the same amount of red tape without
           | changes to the law. Doesn't matter that it is safer, it's
           | "nuclear" which is what most laws target.
        
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