[HN Gopher] Visualizing Bayes Theorem (2009)
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       Visualizing Bayes Theorem (2009)
        
       Author : Tomte
       Score  : 123 points
       Date   : 2022-01-02 12:21 UTC (10 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (oscarbonilla.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (oscarbonilla.com)
        
       | hintymad wrote:
       | Isn't graphical model a most intuitive and generalized
       | visualization of Bayesian theory? Not only is it visual and
       | intuitive, one can use it to solve practical problems as well.
       | For instance, the famous Monty Hall problem is a simple tree for
       | any one to grasp and calculate the final probability of each
       | outcome.
        
       | chrisgd wrote:
       | Is this making the front page because of the NYTimes article on
       | pregnancy testing? Seems highly relevant to that discussion
        
       | zmmmmm wrote:
       | This is literally how they taught it to us in high school.
       | Unfortunately it breaks down when things get a bit more complex
       | so it's a bit of a trap for enabling advanced understanding.
        
         | iamcreasy wrote:
         | What complex situation you are referring to? I've used it in
         | robot localization/filtering algorithm, and things can be
         | simplified by assuming the process is stochastic.
        
       | mikotodomo wrote:
       | I could understand this as someone who just knows algebra. The
       | end part really shows how people shouldn't pretend to understand
       | scientific studies and treat themselves.
        
       | laszlokorte wrote:
       | I recently built an interactive visualisation [1] to explore
       | dependent probabilities in terms of area and side length of
       | rectangles.
       | 
       | [1]: https://static.laszlokorte.de/stochastic/
        
         | alan-crowe wrote:
         | I like that. I started playing by twiddling P(A). Since
         | probabilities add to one, there are only three degrees of
         | freedom. I got that the other two degrees, P(B|A) and P(B| not
         | A) didn't move, why would they? By contrast P(A|B) and P(A| not
         | B) in the other column did move - so far so good.
         | 
         | But P(B) just sat there. Puzzling. Then I realized that it
         | starts at P(B|A) = P(B| not A) which is a special case.
         | 
         | An excellent philosophical toy :-)
        
       | apwheele wrote:
       | I prefer Gigerenzer's idea of natural frequencies over the Venn
       | diagrams. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Gigerenzer-
       | Hoffrage-Natu...
        
       | logshipper wrote:
       | There's a very cool 3Blue1Brown video [0] that helps give you an
       | intuitive feel for Bayes Theorem.
       | 
       | [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZGCoVF3YvM
        
       | debrice wrote:
       | An interactive exploration of virus testing using Bayesian theory
       | https://observablehq.com/@typehorror/how-to-virus-testing
        
       | gxs wrote:
       | This is a great article but I wish the author had picked
       | something a little more upbeat as example material.
        
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