[HN Gopher] Metrics-driven product development is hard
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       Metrics-driven product development is hard
        
       Author : kiyanwang
       Score  : 60 points
       Date   : 2021-12-27 09:53 UTC (13 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (blog.doubleloop.app)
 (TXT) w3m dump (blog.doubleloop.app)
        
       | ergest wrote:
       | That's because metrics are great for optimization and fine tuning
       | features but terrible for innovation
        
         | rch wrote:
         | One reason might be that great innovators don't naturally
         | gravitate towards middle management (or management consulting),
         | so the metrics are flawed out of the gate.
        
           | dwaltrip wrote:
           | We don't have the tools to measure the complex dynamics and
           | factors that result in innovation.
        
         | kqr wrote:
         | Do you have evidence for this claim? I think metrics are
         | absolutely invaluable for innovation.
         | 
         | What is innovation but throwing 100 things at the wall and
         | seeing which two of them stick? And to quickly get a sense of
         | which things have stuck to the wall, metrics are the only
         | reliable way.
        
           | smugglerFlynn wrote:
           | It probably depends on the type of innovation. If you are
           | trying to _do things differently_ , metrics are invaluable --
           | most modern internal innovation teams use metrics to build
           | and manage an idea funnel.
           | 
           | However, if your innovation strategy is to _do different
           | things_ , you will likely be focused on market
           | differentiation, customer development etc. Common practice is
           | to refer to AARRR metrics for this, but it's not like metrics
           | themselves are the main focus.
        
       | dwb wrote:
       | Metrics are great for testing a quantifiable hypothesis, but not
       | all worthwhile hypotheses are quantifiable, and in ignoring the
       | latter we discount an essentially human side to creativity and
       | that's a big turn-off for me.
        
       | black_13 wrote:
        
       | karaterobot wrote:
       | The last company I worked at was very metrics-driven, and used a
       | really methodical, numbers-driven approach to make big,
       | unpopular, counter-intuitive bets that failed catastrophically,
       | while ruining morale, and trust in leadership, and gutting the
       | company.
       | 
       | After that experience, my view of metrics-driven product
       | development is that it's a way to offload the burden of thinking
       | too hard or understanding where you're going. When people talk
       | about metrics-driven product development, I think of drivers who
       | blindly follow their GPS' directions into a lake. Obviously,
       | metrics can be a useful _supplement_ to a deep understanding of
       | the product, the domain, the users, and the company, but keep it
       | on a leash.
        
         | hinkley wrote:
         | Accidental or otherwise, we lost something. We had a situation
         | where we had a three legged stool of product/marketing, QA, and
         | Development. If any of the three were too far out of line, the
         | other two could drag them back.
         | 
         | But we killed QA, and Ken Schwaber gave us a treadmill to run
         | on forever where structurally, nobody has time to think past
         | the end of next month. So Product has been running
         | progressively more roughshod over everything for the last 10
         | years. And since 50% of devs have 5 years or less of
         | experience, that means most people don't know that things used
         | to be better.
        
         | thewarrior wrote:
         | I recently had a revelation that merely using a product can
         | often reveal the organizational structure and the cultural
         | incentives that went into making it.
         | 
         | A company that is famous for being metrics driven and having
         | teams that optimise for their own metrics is Facebook. You can
         | tell that the product has "seams". Each page and widget feels
         | like it was individually optimized and then stitched together.
         | Overall it somehow feels off.
         | 
         | Apple puts design on top and has a kind of dictatorial veto
         | over all aspects of the product. Hence products made by Apple
         | feel seamless and cohesive. They are also more polished because
         | when you solely rely on metrics you make it as good as it needs
         | to be and then stop.
        
           | karaterobot wrote:
           | Sounds like you've independently discovered Conway's Law, one
           | of the most terrible, true things you can say about software
           | organizations:
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conway%27s_law
        
         | akiselev wrote:
         | _> After that experience, my view of metrics-driven product
         | development is that it 's a way to offload the burden of
         | thinking too hard or understanding where you're going. When
         | people talk about metrics-driven product development, I think
         | of drivers who blindly follow their GPS' directions into a
         | lake._
         | 
         | There's also the flip side - metrics-driven development used to
         | keep other people from thinking too hard and scrutinizing work.
         | At my last company, many product decisions were justified using
         | a litany of metrics including AB tests, which people just
         | swallowed because "the data speaks for itself!"
         | 
         | I once took a look at the app we were using to run the AB tests
         | and not a single one had reached statistical significance. The
         | company was basing its decisions on data considered garbage
         | even by the AB app's naive p-value algorithm. I thought that
         | after dozens of A/B tests at least _one_ would be statistically
         | significant just by dumb luck but no, not a single test had
         | even the veneer of credibility.
        
       | ford wrote:
       | Metrics are great as an objective measure of feature
       | releases/goals/success, but they don't provide the whole picture
       | in terms of product success or direction.
       | 
       | Years ago I interned on a messaging team at a FAANG company where
       | _everything_ was driven by ~3 metrics. We had a screen with the
       | trailing 30d average of our metrics, future work was prioritized
       | based on the estimated impact to the metric, and the success of
       | our team was based on these 3 metrics.
       | 
       | My intern project involved some machine learning modeling using
       | the (anonymized/scrubbed) content of the messages sent with our
       | product, and despite the team having existed for >12 months, this
       | was the first time anyone on the team had read a message sent
       | with the product.
       | 
       | In this case, the sharp focus on metrics was super useful for
       | prioritizing features and evaluating our success - but was done
       | so to a fault when the team didn't have a concrete idea of what
       | people were trying to do with our product.
       | 
       | The usual solution to this is to spend more time talking to users
       | - it'd be interesting if there was a process that can help teams
       | know how much time to spend on metrics vs qualitative feedback
        
       | tlarkworthy wrote:
       | metrics driven development has killed facebook.com. On its own,
       | it is too short sighted.
       | 
       | How do you measure long term success? hint: u can't.
       | 
       | Blind application of ML is therefore, also dangerous for similar
       | reasons.
       | 
       | metrics are useful for tightening the tactical decisions like,
       | fuck, our landing page conversion is low so let's invest there,
       | but strategically metrics are unable to be creative and
       | innovative and all the other things you need for a great product.
        
       | coldcode wrote:
       | At my last (very large but not FAANG) employer we collected huge
       | amounts of metrics in our apps, ignored them entirely, and based
       | everything on executive whims. Is this Whim-Driven Development?
        
         | foobiekr wrote:
         | This is sometimes called "reality."
        
         | kqr wrote:
         | Known as HiPPO -- highest-paid person's opinion.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | indymike wrote:
       | Metrics are really good, and really can help you reason about
       | what will happen to usage when you add, remove or change a
       | feature. There are two better / essential tools: First, dog food
       | / use your product if you can. I build recruiting software. When
       | I hire developers, I am a user, just like my customers. You'll
       | really feel the impact of defects and bad assumptions have, and
       | it will really help you understand how to make users happy. The
       | second is to work closely with a few customers. This way you have
       | someone who can heat check the metrics and confirm they are
       | having the same experience you do when you dog food, to make sure
       | you are not being led to an alternate reality.
        
       | debarshri wrote:
       | We have been using metrics driven product development lately.
       | What we have been doing is hypothesize what will grow our product
       | feature based on org identity, talking to customers, looking at
       | the market. We define some metrics which we believe represents
       | the success metrics in the best way possible. Some are based on
       | domain expertise, some are just best guess. We use these metrics
       | as a way to ascertain the hypothesis. We are not using it as
       | indicator to build the next thing. The thing is that the success
       | hypothesis or strategy might be wrong so we are willing to throw
       | that away and start all over again. Not sure if it is the best
       | way to do it.
        
       | baybal2 wrote:
       | Metrics driven software development gets more meaningless, the
       | bigger is the customer base, and frequent are releases.
       | 
       | A good way to make a big organisation chase meaningless things
       | without your bosses realising, and even get a promotion for it.
        
         | nowherebeen wrote:
         | Can you give an example of this? I am having a difficult time
         | understanding your meaning.
        
           | baybal2 wrote:
           | Google Chrome is a great example "developers in the hamster
           | wheel" of metrics.
           | 
           | Keeps getting constantly redesigned for seemingly no reason,
           | and certainly not all for the better.
        
             | Nextgrid wrote:
             | Google Chrome's (or any other established software's)
             | useless changes are absolutely metric-driven. The metric is
             | some employees' salaries.
        
       | beebmam wrote:
       | Metrics-driven product development sounds like a good idea but in
       | practice ends up being Cargo Culting.
       | 
       | That's usually because people rarely reflect on the metrics
       | they're deriving meaning from, rarely abandoning ambiguous
       | metrics as misleading, and rarely imagining new metrics to find
       | utility. Those are very hard tasks that take time and deep
       | thought.
        
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