[HN Gopher] On subversion and dissolution of opposition movements
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       On subversion and dissolution of opposition movements
        
       Author : nikolamilosevic
       Score  : 56 points
       Date   : 2021-12-24 11:25 UTC (11 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (inspiratron.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (inspiratron.org)
        
       | pagutierrezn wrote:
       | Ups! I initially thought it had something to do with svn
        
       | kerneloftruth wrote:
       | "The strength of activists, social change, and opposition
       | movements seems to be decreasing around the world. The trend is
       | reinforced by the seemingly old tactic of discrediting,
       | deception, building mistrust among members, and disinformation
       | spread by various political and state actors, who over the
       | millennia perfected their methods."
       | 
       | Could the decrease in "strength" (i.e. interest and involvement
       | by its participants) be possibly due to how unpopular the demands
       | of the activists are to the general public? It seems the author
       | has a very myopic view of the situation. People are seeing what
       | "defund the police" leads to, and what their kids are being
       | taught in schools -- they see it, and they're judging it, and
       | their response is increasingly "NO". The democrats in the US see
       | their polling numbers plummet, and are recognizing that pursuing
       | the agenda demanded by the activists will take them out of power
       | altogether.
       | 
       | The examples cited are COINTELPRO and the Soviet Stazi? Those
       | were quite a long time ago, and not at all part of any
       | suppression of today's activists. The article fails to mention
       | that for the most part, "big tech" has supported opposition
       | movements, and show clear bias against conservatives.
        
         | matthewdgreen wrote:
         | There is only really one issue, and that's the rapidly
         | increasing atmospheric CO2 level and the potential impacts it
         | will have on our ability to maintain a functioning society. The
         | fact that you're focused on a bunch of telegenic activists and
         | police defunding (which appears to not be actually happening,
         | anywhere) illustrates how successfully we've been distracted
         | from matters that affect our own survival.
        
           | kerneloftruth wrote:
           | There has indeed been defunding and redirecting funds to
           | other purposes...and several cities have recently reversed
           | course due to the uptick in crimes:
           | 
           | https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/mar/07/us-cities-
           | de...
           | 
           | https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2020/08/13/at-
           | leas...
           | 
           | https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/refund-the-police-
           | cities-a...
           | 
           | https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2021/11/15/denver-
           | refunds...
           | 
           | ...and others easily searched.
           | 
           | Also, I'm leery of "There is only really one issue". The
           | environment and climate are very real concerns, but a
           | singular focus leads to zealotry and extremism -- which are
           | discredits the cause(s) they're advocating. Anti-abortion
           | activists learned that bombing clinics and assassinating
           | doctors did not help their cause.
        
             | matthewdgreen wrote:
             | From what I can tell, studies that have tried to find a
             | correlation between police funding (and rare, temporary
             | "defunding" efforts) have come up with very little. In some
             | cities that reduced police funding, crime rose. But then in
             | some other cities that increased police funding, crime
             | rose. And vice versa in other cities.
             | 
             | And the overall magnitude of the budget cuts is tiny. Even
             | the examples you cherry picked, the budget cuts are
             | hilariously small compared to recent increases. For
             | example, your last link shows that Denver has been
             | increasing its police budget ~5% a year since 2017 (well
             | above inflation), and they decreased it by 0.75% for a
             | single year during a pandemic. That's a city that's seen a
             | 75% overall increase in police funding since 2012 and still
             | has a visible upward crime trend that clearly predates the
             | "defund" movement (http://pagetwo.completecolorado.com/wp-
             | content/uploads/Per-c...)
             | 
             | This is exactly the kind of statistical nothingburger you'd
             | expect to see if someone was inventing an issue to try to
             | make people emotional and distract them from real problems.
        
       | toyg wrote:
       | The author misunderstands Machiavelli. Works like _De
       | Principatibus_ are meant to _help_ "subversive" democratic
       | efforts to recognize, reveal, and hence _counter_ tyrannical
       | strategies. Machiavelli was a supporter of democratic
       | governments, which were rare and revolutionary in his times, and
       | had been burnt by the success of counter-revolutionary forces; so
       | he described what were effectively catalogs of tyrannical
       | behaviors, in order to help people avoid their traps. The fact
       | that tyrants also ended up reading his works and treating them
       | like manuals, was a side-effect.
        
         | hodgesrm wrote:
         | Machiavelli wrote De Principatibus to get a job with the Medici
         | after losing his position when they returned to Florence. There
         | are a lot of interpretations of the work but the simplest is
         | that it's a manual for an autocrat and that Machiavelli
         | believed that the maxims he described were true. The most
         | important is that the ends justify the means.
         | 
         | It's quite a different question whether Machiavelli personally
         | believed in autocracy. In the Discourses he discussed the
         | management of republics. He also worked for the Florentine
         | Republic for many years. There's no question he saw the
         | strengths of republics, but his views are also conflated with
         | admiration for Rome, which was Republican after 510 BC.
         | 
         | I think the simplest answer is that Machiavelli believed in
         | Florence, desired the unity of Italy against foreign invaders,
         | and wanted to be part of the action. That's just my own
         | opinion.
         | 
         | [0]
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niccol%C3%B2_Machiavelli#The_P...
        
         | anovikov wrote:
         | Agree, those wishing to actually understand Machiavelli should
         | read "Discourses on Livy", rather than "Prince". He was an avid
         | supporter of republicanism (not democracy, those didn't exist
         | yet) and proven superiority of republican order vs aristocratic
         | on many examples from his era as we as from the long past,
         | starting with Roman Kingdom times - described by Livy.
        
           | brnaftr186 wrote:
           | Pretty sweeping statement to say democracy hadn't existed
           | prior to, unless you've got semantic arguments to press it.
           | I'll, of course, grant you that suffrage wasn't prefect. But
           | I'd also be willing to further that argument with the idea
           | that we've still yet to see a proper democracy in any modern
           | era, forwarded by Graeber and Wengrow in "The Dawn of
           | Everything". You'll also note that, given these passages are
           | true, an elected representative is simply the best aristocrat
           | - which is a coin with two sides.
           | 
           | I'd also go so far as to posit that democratic processes are
           | an innate form of human organization. Think of every time
           | you've been organizing and out with your friends. Even coming
           | to an end where you synthesize, it's nonetheless effectively
           | informal voting. So, I'd say that indeed there were many
           | societies, regardless of whatever precise definition is
           | formalized, which predated Machiavelli quite probably on the
           | order of tens of thousands of years.
           | 
           | From Dawn of Everything:
           | 
           | "[...] political philosophers of later Greek cities did not
           | actually consider elections a democratic way of selecting
           | candidates for public office at all. _The democratic method
           | was sortition, or lottery,_ much like modern jury duty.
           | Elections were assumed to belong to the aristocratic mode
           | (aristocracy meaning 'rule of the best'), allowing commoners
           | - much like the retainers in an old-fashioned, heroic
           | aristocracy - to decide who among the well born should be
           | considered best of all; and well born, in this context,
           | simply meant all those who could afford to spend much of
           | their time playing at politics. "
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pnyx :
           | 
           | "The Pnyx was the official meeting place of the _Athenian
           | democratic assembly_ (Ancient Greek: ekklesia). In the
           | earliest days of Athenian democracy (after the reforms of
           | Kleisthenes in 508 B.C.), the ekklesia met in the Agora.
           | Sometime in the early 5th century, the meeting place was
           | moved to a hill south and west of the Acropolis. This new
           | meeting place came to be called  "Pnyx" (from the Greek word
           | meaning 'tightly packed together.'"
        
           | wrnr wrote:
           | That is also my reading of it, I've always liked this quote
           | by (I think) James Burnham, The one measure the good must
           | take form the bad.
        
         | slibhb wrote:
         | One interpretation is that it's satire. Another is that it's an
         | attempt to trick dictators into planting the seeds of a
         | republican revolution.
         | 
         | A third is that, while Machiavelli is a republican, he's also a
         | realist. He understands that, sometimes, there will be a
         | dictatorship, he accepts this and he's offering genuine advice
         | to autocrats. That his advice is cold-blooded is a reflection
         | of his concern with concrete reality as opposed to ideals and
         | his belief that a dictator trying to be good is worse than a
         | dictator who ruthlessly pursues his self-interest.
        
       | bell-cot wrote:
       | Here's the no-ads .pdf version (linked at the top of their web
       | page) - - https://inspiratron.org/wp-content/uploads/kalins-
       | pdf/single... (Note the mangled Stasi logo in the .pdf:)
       | 
       | The 5-page article focuses on state security organization (Stasi,
       | FBI) with massive resources and legal powers, going up against
       | opposition movements with neither. Younger folks might not know
       | that such organizations do such stuff...but to me, the stories
       | read like "mighty army manages to track down and kill a 3-legged
       | cow". Wow! Really? /s
       | 
       | Like most stuff I've read, the essay makes the Stasi out to
       | supreme masters of their craft. Um, _no_. Remember what happened
       | to East Germany when the Soviet Empire fell? The whole State
       | vanished away like a sand castle in the face of a rising tide.
       | The Stasi, like most such organizations, were a bunch of creepy
       | machismo control-freak thugs with state backing. Their goals
       | were: 1) indulging their own sociopathic inclinations, and 2)
       | keep State backing, while said State lasted. Understanding why
       | states endure or fade away didn 't seem to be on their radar. Let
       | alone _doing_ anything to help East Germany endure.
        
         | bjt2n3904 wrote:
         | Yeah, I only read so far into the article before losing
         | interest in it. Great title, but it fails to deliver.
         | 
         | You raise an interesting point, about the fall of the Soviet
         | Empire. Perhaps an extremely effective tactic, right up until
         | the truth catches up and gets it's pants on.
        
       | paganel wrote:
       | > The strength of activists, social change, and opposition
       | movements seems to be decreasing around the world.
       | 
       | Maybe it's some bias from my part, but (at least in the Western
       | world, which I'm following more closely) it looks like the
       | establishment is starting to get more and more shaky.
       | 
       | I think the last thing standing on the establishment's side was
       | the "mainstream media" (for lack of a better word) but the
       | ongoing pandemic plus a recent election or two (mainly Trump +
       | Brexit) have shaken its influence to the core. The propaganda
       | machine that is Hollywood has also lost most of its influence on
       | the general public in the last few years, mostly because its
       | movies don't target the general populace anymore.
       | 
       | It feels like if someone would just come in and grab the reins of
       | power by force almost no-one will be willing to risk his/her life
       | in order to defend today's democracy (or what's left of it).
        
         | nikolamilosevic wrote:
         | Point of the article is that establishment is defending whoever
         | is on power and itself, and there is no much more democracy,
         | especially when opposition is dissolved, leaving people to
         | chose between parties that are not fundamentally different.
         | Erosion of democracy is the result, especially now all aided
         | with technology and biases big tech platforms introduced
        
       | teeray wrote:
       | http://archive.today/lDfVU
        
       | logronoide wrote:
       | Probably one of the best videos about subversion:
       | https://youtu.be/GwDdJsdYM3g
        
         | qntty wrote:
         | Is this guy trying to convert me to Christianity? Am I
         | misunderstanding his final statement where he seems to say that
         | the only solution to subversion is faith in God?
        
           | tablespoon wrote:
           | > Is this guy trying to convert me to Christianity? Am I
           | misunderstanding his final statement where he seems to say
           | that the only solution to subversion is faith in God?
           | 
           | Care to link that part?
           | 
           | I'd believe it though. IIRC, disinformation techniques are
           | meant to seize up rational judgement processes, and it makes
           | sense that one way to defeat that is an extra-rational
           | commitment to something.
           | 
           | I recall a scene in the show _The Americans_ , where the
           | Russian agent was blackmailing a very religious woman into
           | helping him. Going against all rational self-interest and at
           | great personal cost, she told her superiors about what was
           | going on allowing them to thwart the Russian's plan, because
           | she believed that was the right thing to do. The Russian
           | agent character grumbled that religious people are the
           | hardest to manipulate because they don't act predictably (or
           | something like that).
        
         | wussboy wrote:
         | I'm always scared to click on political videos in you tube,
         | just in case it's Jordan Peterson. Even one accidental click
         | will inundate your suggested videos with right wing hatred.
         | 
         | But don't worry. YouTube's algorithms aren't making the world
         | worse!
        
           | rubyfan wrote:
           | Agree, youtube links should probably only be ever opened in
           | private mode behind a vpn.
        
           | throw0101a wrote:
           | > _Even one accidental click will inundate your suggested
           | videos with right wing hatred._
           | 
           | Right-click, copy link, open new private window, paste link.
        
           | zionic wrote:
           | I'm no fan of his but Peterson is hardly right-wing. If
           | anything he's politically centrist with a strong focus on
           | individualism.
           | 
           | Both right and left wingers hate him because he undermines
           | their collectivist/authoritarian sides
        
             | pstuart wrote:
             | > Both right and left wingers hate him because he
             | undermines their collectivist/authoritarian sides
             | 
             | Speak for yourself. I don't hate him but I'm not a fan -- I
             | think he's a gifted speaker in crafting what people want to
             | hear but find his reasoning specious.
        
             | wussboy wrote:
             | I did not claim he is right wing. I only claim that if you
             | watch one of his videos you will get right wing videos
             | pushed to you on YouTube.
        
             | KerrAvon wrote:
             | A little web searching turns up a number of people who
             | believe otherwise. Here's one I can't easily classify into
             | left/right boxes.
             | 
             | https://freethoughtblogs.com/pharyngula/2018/09/21/jordan-
             | pe...
        
         | throwrqX wrote:
         | Is there any evidence this guy was actually a KGB agent? I've
         | seen this guy a lot and he talks awfully like someone who is
         | saying what a certain group of people wanna hear.
        
           | tablespoon wrote:
           | > Is there any evidence this guy was actually a KGB agent?
           | I've seen this guy a lot and he talks awfully like someone
           | who is saying what a certain group of people wanna hear.
           | 
           | He showed up in this NY Times video identified as a former
           | KGB agent, so that claim stood up to whatever fact checking
           | they did: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tR_6dibpDfo&t=180s.
           | 
           | > I've seen this guy a lot and he talks awfully like someone
           | who is saying what a certain group of people wanna hear.
           | 
           | That doesn't mean he's wrong.
        
       | lkrubner wrote:
       | Regarding the dangers of disinformation, one way to build a
       | democracy that is largely immune to disinformation would be to
       | build a democracy in which you only vote for people whom you know
       | personally. That would mean introducing another layer of
       | representation, in-between the public and Congress. The simplest
       | and most naive approach would simply establish districts of 860
       | people:
       | 
       | 330,000,000 / 860 = 383,720
       | 
       | 383,720 / 860 = 460
       | 
       | In other words, in the USA, where we have 330 million people and
       | a House of 430 Representatives, if we wanted to keep the House at
       | that size, while only having people vote for people that they
       | know, you would divide them up into very small districts of a few
       | hundred people, so that people in the districts could get to know
       | each other directly, without having to rely on something like
       | television.
       | 
       | 860 people would be the population of a neighborhood in the
       | suburbs, or 2 large apartment buildings where I live in New York
       | City.
       | 
       | Someone will probably respond "Your intermediate district has
       | 383,720 people in it." Right, but the 860 elected representatives
       | in that district know they only need to get to know each other.
       | 
       | There is a small historical precedent for this, the Polish
       | Lithuanian Commonwealth, a democracy that at its peak in the
       | 1500s had 10% of the population voting, in a system of small
       | Sejms that would then send representatives to the main Sejm in
       | the capitol. For many reasons, this is worth more study. The
       | Commonwealth was the largest and most successful experiment with
       | democracy that existed in the West between the end of ancient
       | Athenian democracy and the revolutions of the 1700s.
       | 
       | I will say, based on personal experience, people's behavior is
       | non-partisan when they vote for someone who they know personally.
       | Indeed, it seems to engage a completely different part of the
       | human brain.
       | 
       | To understand this, it is worth studying what happened to my mom.
       | She is a left-leaning leader in a strongly Republican town
       | (Jackson, New Jersey), yet the Republicans appointed her to the
       | Environmental Commission and the Planning Board, because they
       | knew her and trusted her. My mom served from 1973 to 2019, 46
       | years in total, and was finally given an award from the city
       | government that recognized her as the longest serving member of
       | the Jackson government, since its founding in 1848. She served
       | for 26% of the town's total history.
       | 
       | My mom worked as a teacher in the high school, and even though
       | most of her students, and their parents, were Republican, they
       | loved her and wanted her to serve in government.
       | 
       | An illustration of this was during the angry years after 2008
       | when a new kind of Republican entered town politics, basically
       | the Tea Party Republicans. They were very loyal to the real
       | estate developers, who hated my mom, and so they conspired to
       | oust my mom in 2009. This lead to an outcry, throughout the town,
       | and so my mom was reappointed. You can read that story here:
       | 
       | http://www1.gmnews.com/2009/07/30/board-member-offers-to-ste...
       | 
       | The point is, this is an overwhelming Republican town that for 46
       | years was willing to appoint a left-leaning activist to several
       | government commissions, because when they thought about my mom,
       | they did not think about her in partisan terms. Instead, they
       | thought of her as the teacher and activist that they loved.
       | 
       | From this I conclude, when people vote for people who they know
       | personally, they engage a very different part of their brain,
       | relative to the part of the brain they use when engaged in
       | partisan politics.
       | 
       | Having said all this, I don't think a simple division of the
       | pubic by 860 is ideal. I suggest a somewhat more subtle system
       | here:
       | 
       | https://demodexio.substack.com/p/democracy-for-realists-part...
        
       | robinduckett wrote:
       | Instant bounce due to the sheer amount of ads and overlays
        
         | luckylion wrote:
         | Honest question: why do you surf the web without an adblocker
         | these days? Are there technical constraints that limit your
         | browser/plugin choice? Is it a moral stance ("I want ad-funded
         | sites to make money if I consume their content")?
        
           | 7fYZ7mJh3RNKNaG wrote:
           | In my case, iOS does not allow extensions on Firefox. I
           | didn't know this before recently getting and iPhone and was
           | pissed, but the side effect is less browsing on my phone
           | which is nice.
        
             | ahelwer wrote:
             | Same boat. I ended up just paying for adguard and using
             | safari. All the browsers on iOS are just wrappers of safari
             | anyway, as far as I can tell.
        
           | robinduckett wrote:
           | I don't have an adblocker on my phone, although I am
           | increasingly tempted.
        
         | [deleted]
        
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