[HN Gopher] Mantic Monday: Let Me Google That for You
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       Mantic Monday: Let Me Google That for You
        
       Author : aleyan
       Score  : 21 points
       Date   : 2021-12-21 21:16 UTC (1 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (astralcodexten.substack.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (astralcodexten.substack.com)
        
       | wilde wrote:
       | Prediction markets are super fascinating. Their use is hampered
       | in the US both by the insider concerns mentioned in the article
       | and a web of state laws that sometimes classify them as gambling.
       | 
       | For the Solana ignition hackathon I played around with building a
       | search engine based around a per-query prediction market. It's
       | fun to try to structure different problems in this way since it's
       | totally different to how we typically solve things in CS.
        
         | paulpauper wrote:
         | not really. they have been around for a long time but have
         | never caught on due to low volume and regulatory problems.
         | There is no need for prediction markets when insurance
         | companies effectively fill that role.
        
         | ddp26 wrote:
         | [Disclaimer: I work on Gleangen at Google, opinions my own.
         | Also, I wrote part of this in a comment on the blog.]
         | 
         | I agree that insider concerns are a problem, but I think
         | there's a very large space for questions that, as Hal Varian
         | says, (a) are of interest to the company but (b) do not reveal
         | financially critical information.
         | 
         | Consider OKRs tracking engineering milestones. Estimating your
         | team's progress a quarter or year out is basically forecasting,
         | and participating in those forecasts does not generally make
         | you a financial insider. (Though some OKRs deal directly with
         | finances and would in fact do so.)
        
         | ffhhj wrote:
         | > For the Solana ignition hackathon I played around with
         | building a search engine based around a per-query prediction
         | market. It's fun to try to structure different problems in this
         | way since it's totally different to how we typically solve
         | things in CS.
         | 
         | I'm creating a faster search engine for programming queries and
         | this topic is pretty interesting. Could you share more info on
         | how your engine works?
        
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