[HN Gopher] Design Patterns in Googles Prediction Market on Goog...
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       Design Patterns in Googles Prediction Market on Google Cloud
        
       Author : aleyan
       Score  : 28 points
       Date   : 2021-12-20 20:13 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (cloud.google.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (cloud.google.com)
        
       | ddp26 wrote:
       | See also Scott Alexander's comments on this,
       | https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-let-me-g...
       | 
       | Edit: it's a separate HN post,
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29642210
        
       | PeterCorless wrote:
       | The problem with prediction markets is that information is not
       | equally distributed amongst participants, and vote "weight" needs
       | to be adjusted based upon proximity to information as well as
       | rational, objective decision-making criteria.
       | 
       | Otherwise you can run into self-fulfilling prophesies, where
       | fascination with gloom-and-doom scenarios become rampant. Imagine
       | the "QAnon-ization" of a "predictive market." Or, conversely, the
       | positive feedback loop that would result in a tulipmania, or the
       | kind of crypto-coin goldbugs' "Going to the moon."
       | 
       | In other words, you have to account for bad faith actors in a
       | predictive market, manipulations to it, and inherent biases.
       | 
       | "Incentivizing" the "right" behavior doesn't work if people are
       | unswayable from preset biases and presumptions.
       | 
       | Recall the debacle with Policy Analysis Market (PAM) from 2003:
       | 
       | * News: https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna3072985
       | 
       | * Paper on the PAM:
       | https://watermark.silverchair.com/itgg.2007.2.3.73.pdf?token...
       | 
       | (EDIT) Last note: Predictive markets tend to fail worst when
       | trying to model for stochastic events -- like terrorist attacks
       | -- which are inherently probabilistic, but not predictable. I use
       | the analogy: "Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, BANANA!" How would you
       | have predicated that based on prior data?
        
       | squidproquo wrote:
       | Interesting, I built an app that does something similar with
       | respect to converting forecasts to trades, allowing forecasters
       | to trade their predictions (in hidden market) for points (not
       | real money).
       | 
       | https://www.unitarity.com/app/
        
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       (page generated 2021-12-21 23:00 UTC)