[HN Gopher] Rising groundwater caused by climate change could de...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Rising groundwater caused by climate change could devastate coastal
       communities
        
       Author : CapitalistCartr
       Score  : 94 points
       Date   : 2021-12-13 16:24 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (thinknewsmedia.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (thinknewsmedia.com)
        
       | bch wrote:
       | British Columbia has just experienced substantial flooding that
       | wasn't related to being coastal[0][1][2]. I think it exemplifies
       | how we need to mind our relationship with the world - everywhere.
       | 
       | [0] https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-floods-
       | su...
       | 
       | [1] https://youtu.be/c-zANcnwY34
       | 
       | [2] https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/merritt-
       | resi...
        
       | phicoh wrote:
       | There is one thing I don't understand about the article. The rise
       | in groundwater level should follow the average increase in sea
       | level. It is not like a big wave would suddenly affect the
       | groundwater level.
       | 
       | Assuming houses last for 50 years and during the next 50 years
       | the sealevel can increase by around 50cm, it should be easy to
       | check if buildings near the coast are high enough that they can
       | accept this change in sealevel.
       | 
       | Of course, damage done by flooding does depend on how big waves
       | are. So you need levees and seawalls long before you get a
       | groundwater problem.
       | 
       | That said, you don't want to pump fresh water out of the ground
       | close to the sea (unless you inject at least as much fresh
       | water). But that is independent of sealevel rising.
       | 
       | Finally, plenty of Dutch houses are built in swamps below
       | sealevel. The technology exists.
        
         | DoingIsLearning wrote:
         | > Of course, damage done by flooding does depend on how big
         | waves are. So you need levees and seawalls long before you get
         | a groundwater problem.
         | 
         | Actually Germany and Netherlands experienced massive floods
         | this year with increased river volumes in the Maas due to
         | excess rain and ice melt in the Alps. At least 200 people died,
         | 10s of thousands relocated.
         | 
         | My point is not all your flood threats are downstream from you.
         | 
         | > Finally, plenty of Dutch houses are built in swamps below
         | sealevel. The technology exists.
         | 
         | The dutch have centuries of know how and an entirely separate
         | body to oversee all water management the Rijkswaterstaat. To
         | assume that their model can be easily copied is a massive
         | underestimation of the problem/solutions.
        
           | phicoh wrote:
           | There is an interesting thing related to the recent floods
           | that happened in Begium, Germany and The Netherlands. The
           | Netherlands spends quite a bit of effort estimating flood
           | risks, and for more important water defenses tries to get the
           | chance of disaster down to about one in 10000 years.
           | 
           | However, it seems that this calculation is only done for the
           | lower parts of the country. The Meuse was only taken
           | seriously after a couple of floods in the 1990s (and works
           | were just far enough in The Netherlands that places along the
           | Meuse were mostly fine).
           | 
           | However, for smaller rivers, nobody seems to care.
        
         | wongarsu wrote:
         | Sea level rise in itself is a complicated subject. Some regions
         | of the ocean see easily twice the global average of sea level
         | rise, while other regions barely change (currents and winds
         | have a large effect on sea level). On the coast this gets
         | further complicated because the ground itself is also moving up
         | or down (mostly due to settling, or century-long rebound from
         | the loss of glaciers) [1].
         | 
         | I would assume ground water adds another layer of complexity
         | since it also depends on local geography
         | 
         | 1: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-
         | climate/...
        
         | iskander wrote:
         | I haven't read the article yet but one thing that makes more
         | complicated in the US is the widespread use of septic tanks.
         | The leach field will flood before the actual surface.
        
           | q1w2 wrote:
           | Most septic tanks are not in coastal properties. The water
           | table isn't going to change for a property unless you're
           | right on the water or living on wide low lying march/delta
           | type areas.
        
             | iskander wrote:
             | In Florida and much of the Gulf Coast though...
             | 
             | Check out this map of population density:
             | https://vividmaps.com/wp-
             | content/uploads/2021/10/metropolita...
             | 
             | All those dense spots in Florida and along the Gulf are
             | also more likely than most US urban areas to use septic
             | tanks. That's a lot of brackish poop, clogged toilets, and
             | environmental contamination coming in the next few decades.
        
               | q1w2 wrote:
               | Given the high water table in Florida, only people living
               | in the countryside have septic tanks. None on the coast
               | would have a septic tank
        
       | cronix wrote:
       | Meanwhile, other places are experiencing the exact opposite -
       | wells running dry because the water table is continually
       | dropping.
       | 
       | https://www.opb.org/article/2021/07/29/southern-oregon-wells...
       | 
       | https://nmpoliticalreport.com/2017/10/16/running-dry-groundw...
        
       | tmnstr85 wrote:
       | Either side of the coin, it's still pretty wild to watch it
       | happen. We live on a point in Baltimore harbor and had the
       | perfect storm of both water being pushed up the harbor, big tides
       | and sheets of rain. By the time the tide came in the second time,
       | we started seeing water pushing up through the sump pumps in our
       | basements. The pressure from the water table underneath our home
       | was so great that water was pushing it's way through the floors.
       | This was the first time we've ever seen this happen down here,
       | this is an area with significant history. I would not be
       | surprised if this became common place in the future.
        
         | ianhawes wrote:
         | The entire Inner Harbor is within a floodplain, with the
         | southernmost areas being within the 100yr FP. What you are
         | describing is not unheard of, but simply not common.
        
         | hihihihi1234 wrote:
         | Sounds like you should move before it's too late.
        
           | ancode wrote:
           | That doesn't make the problem go away it just pushes it onto
           | some other unsuspecting person
        
             | bob1029 wrote:
             | Not everything is forever and perfect and many people are
             | happy living within this reality.
        
             | mperham wrote:
             | Unsuspecting? That's the entire point of a buyer's agent.
        
       | markdown wrote:
       | In the western Pacific a week ago:
       | 
       | https://twitter.com/LorenzoRaplili/status/146778222144867942...
       | 
       | https://www.abc.net.au/tok-pisin/2021-12-07/king-tide-png/13...
       | 
       | https://www.looppng.com/png-news/tides-continue-nip-107547
       | 
       | https://postcourier.com.pg/king-tides-wreak-havoc-on-islands...
        
       | r721 wrote:
       | Original article:
       | https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/12/13/1041309/climate-...
       | (unpaywalled: https://archive.today/DNSkT)
        
       | olivermarks wrote:
       | Who is 'thinknewsmedia' who wrote this 'could' article? The link
       | to Vkontakte at base suggests the site is Russian?
        
         | CapitalistCartr wrote:
         | This version is freely available to read; the MIT one wasn't.
        
         | q1w2 wrote:
         | You are right to be suspicious. While the original author of
         | the article isn't from the site - it is very very interesting
         | to see it propagated by Russian sources.
         | 
         | Good catch.
        
         | DennisP wrote:
         | They have a source link at the bottom. It's MIT's Technology
         | Review. Here's the full-text archive: https://archive.md/cpEXX
        
           | olivermarks wrote:
           | thanks! don't know how I missed that
        
       | nberkman wrote:
       | Related, this goes into far more detail:
       | https://baynature.org/article/the-sea-beneath-us/
        
         | iskander wrote:
         | >Water will leach inside homes, she said, through basement
         | cracks. Toilets may become chronically backed up. Raw sewage
         | may seep through manholes. Brackish water will corrode sewer
         | and water pipes and inundate building foundations. And most
         | hazardous of all, water percolating upward may flow through
         | contaminants buried in the soil, spreading them underground and
         | eventually releasing them into people's homes.
         | 
         | This describes my experience living in Miami. People are
         | already acclimated to saltwater pouring out of drains during
         | "king tides".
        
       | _Microft wrote:
       | Someone submitted this a few posts earlier: "The Amazon is
       | turning into savannah - we have 5 years to save it",
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29540946
       | 
       | Two sides of the same coin but the groundwater problem seems
       | easier to solve. Not because it is technically easier but because
       | the incentives for (rich countries) seem to be a lot stronger.
       | Preventing the own area from flooding is way less abstract than
       | indirectly caused deforestation somewhere in the world, with
       | effects that will be felt only years or decades into the future.
       | 
       | Without wanting to highjack this submission (the Amazon
       | submission didn't gain traction, unfortunately) but any ideas how
       | this problem could be solved and how one could contribute to a
       | solution?
        
         | deltree7 wrote:
         | Capitalism and Free Market.
         | 
         | On an individual basis, apart from zero-cost sustainable
         | habits, if you are capable, become a master of science,
         | attempting to solve energy, material, carbon and climate issue
         | at a physics level. If you are a craftsman, observe all the
         | day-to-day activities of humans, tinker/hack and attempt to
         | solve the same workflows more sustainably.
         | 
         | If you have a solution either through hacks or science, you'll
         | have unbelievable amount of capital coming to you to scale your
         | solution. Capitalists will be tripping over themselves to hand
         | you money.
         | 
         | Here's what will 100% not work -- Activism or Trying to
         | 'Policy' out of your way of Climate Change problems.
         | 
         | Also, no government will ever fund your crazy little idea that
         | has 0.0001% chance of succeeding with 10000x impact. Here's who
         | may fund it -- your favorite evil Billionaire.
        
           | NationalPark wrote:
           | How does this solve the problem of externalities that exists
           | today? And what do you do if no genius ever comes along with
           | such a "silver bullet" solution to invite venture funding?
           | Keep waiting and hope they are born before the externalities
           | catch up and it's too late?
        
             | deltree7 wrote:
             | Your sustainable solution, by definition, will reduce input
             | costs for all business.
             | 
             | Every business on planet earth will hand you money for
             | reducing input costs.
             | 
             | Once again think long-term. Short-term the externalities
             | does get pushed around
        
               | selimthegrim wrote:
               | >Once again think long-term. Short-term the externalities
               | does get pushed around
               | 
               | Congratulations on the most bloodless hot take I've read
               | on HN by a country mile
        
           | davidw wrote:
           | Markets and capitalism are part of the solution, of course,
           | but you absolutely do need policies to direct all that
           | energy, at a high level.
           | 
           | Absent "policies" and enforcement, the cheapest way for a
           | factory to dispose of waste is to dump it in the river. Same
           | thing applies to CO2: dumping it in the atmosphere is cheap
           | right now because the policies to deal with that externality
           | aren't quite there.
           | 
           | An obvious example of a policy that might help would be a
           | carbon tax that makes more carbon-efficient things more
           | economically appealing.
        
             | deltree7 wrote:
             | Property rights, one of the bedrock principles of
             | capitalism, easily handles externalities.
             | 
             | Dumping waste/co2 is a violation of someone else's property
             | rights. Try dumping waste into your neighbor's property and
             | see what happens.
             | 
             | The reason why externalities happen is because government
             | is not enforcing property rights
        
             | IntrepidWorm wrote:
             | Carbon tax gets proposed often, but it does not work on its
             | own as a singular policy. Existing implementations of this
             | see the money raised by the carbon tax diverted to equally
             | environmentally costly ventures. There really is no easy
             | way to incentivize a society driven by capital to be
             | environmentally responsible because capitalism necessitates
             | a near-sighted and self-centered approach to these things.
             | 
             | Take the focus on quarterlies- a company may be doomed long
             | term by the decisions made in the present, but as long as
             | they reflect positively in the quarterlies the people
             | making the decisions stand to gain significantly more than
             | they will eventually lose when the company collapses. Its
             | this mindset that we have to fight if we hope to effect any
             | real limit to climate change.
             | 
             | There's no real incentive when climate change occurs on the
             | scale of decades, and anybody with the power to change it
             | thinks (and is thus affected) on the scale of years.
        
               | phicoh wrote:
               | Carbon tax works fine if politians are willing to stick
               | to it.
               | 
               | First set some goals and make sure that those goals need
               | to be met. For example, 0 net CO2 emissions in 2050, 50%
               | less than 1990 emissions in 2030.
               | 
               | Then announce that each year, CO2 tax will be set to have
               | effect. I.e., plot how to go from today to 2050, how much
               | CO2 emission is allowed for each year and an estimate
               | what to CO2 tax will be.
               | 
               | The CO2 can just be a general tax, and income tax can be
               | reduced to compensate. No need for the government to
               | spend all of it on new technology. Of course, some
               | programs to develop markets may help.
               | 
               | When CO2 costs are more or less predictable, companies
               | will quickly figure out ways to avoid CO2 emissions.
               | 
               | There is one big if, if the government cannot find a way
               | to grand permits for green energy, transmission of green
               | energy, etc. then the standard of living may quickly go
               | down.
        
               | ericd wrote:
               | https://clcouncil.org/economists-statement/
               | 
               | Carbon tax is not being proposed on its own, it's meant
               | to be combined with:
               | 
               | - Paying out ~100% of the take equally per-person to make
               | it so it helps rather than hurts the poorest, a "carbon
               | dividend". Poor people use less carbon on average
               | (directly+indirectly) than wealthy people, so they will
               | usually be net beneficiaries.
               | 
               | - Applying an equivalent tax on imports from countries
               | that don't impose a similar tax, called a Border Carbon
               | Adjustment, to prevent domestic manufacturing from being
               | disadvantaged (and actually, it should give domestic
               | manufacturing a boost, since manufacturing locally should
               | be more efficient and hopefully include more green energy
               | in its mix). In the cases where the carbon generation
               | isn't known, due to being unaudited, the maximally
               | pessimistic value can be applied, to encourage companies
               | to audit their supply chain.
        
               | kansface wrote:
               | > Applying an equivalent tax on imports from countries
               | that don't impose a similar tax, called a Border Carbon
               | Adjustment, to prevent domestic manufacturing from being
               | disadvantaged ... to encourage companies to audit their
               | supply chain
               | 
               | Not that I'm opposed to the cause or aligning incentives
               | in general, but practically, this just seems flat out
               | impossible to implement in any way that has teeth.
               | 
               | Do we punish poor countries to not destroy our local
               | business, or do we let them pollute to not further
               | impoverish them (in which case they will just start doing
               | carbon tax arbitrage)? Both solutions suck, but with
               | different US demographics which makes the local politics
               | tricky even when everyone agrees on terminal values.
               | 
               | Of course, the real elephant in the room is China! China
               | will never let auditors hurt a local business besides
               | occasionally destroying a Jack Ma. The company doing the
               | manufacturing has an enormous incentive to lie since they
               | get to pocket the difference (minus payoffs), the auditor
               | has an incentive to lie as otherwise they would be
               | fired/imprisoned/social-decredited, and the government
               | has and will continue to lie/cheat/steal to protect
               | domestic business. When we inevitably have
               | incontrovertible, unignorable proof they are lying and
               | lied for the last N years, do we start a trade war after
               | local manufacturing has been destroyed and we are fully
               | reliant on their goods? Do we just start a trade war up
               | front to price in the lying from the get go which looks
               | indistinguishable from massive tariffs... in any case,
               | China won't retaliate for what reason?
               | 
               | > ...the maximally pessimistic value can be applied
               | 
               | Consider how truly _feckless_ the US /WHO has been in
               | addressing China on the now probably probable lab leak!
               | There have been no consequences for refusing to cooperate
               | in the investigation of the origins of a disease that has
               | done trillions of dollars in damages and killed 5 million
               | people (China threatened to withhold medical supplies at
               | the start of the pandemic, so it goes, and its probably
               | not within the interests of our own elites, either). Even
               | if you think China has the same goal of reducing climate
               | change, they will still keep two sets of books (or
               | more!).
               | 
               | Anyway, this is a sort of visibility/legibility problem
               | into other countries that feels _really_ hard to solve
               | politically. Every local actor is strongly incentivized
               | to defect which makes the system untenable locally. It
               | reminds me of tax collectors in medieval Europe, except,
               | you know, it would be for the whole world.
        
               | greeneggs wrote:
               | > Paying out ~100% of the take equally per-person to make
               | it so it helps rather than hurts the poorest, a "carbon
               | dividend". Poor people use less carbon on average
               | (directly+indirectly) than wealthy people, so they will
               | usually be net beneficiaries.
               | 
               | I think there's an argument that this is impossible to
               | sustain, politically. Once there is a huge new tax, it
               | will be too tempting to redirect growing portions of that
               | funding to other projects. California, for example, has
               | an energy rebate, but the money has also been diverted to
               | bail out the high-speed rail project, for example, and if
               | the state faced a fiscal crisis who knows where the money
               | would go?
        
               | KennyBlanken wrote:
               | The reason carbon taxes work is because the upper
               | echelons of society are responsible for far, far more
               | carbon dioxide and pollution than the overwhelming
               | majority of the world's population.
               | 
               | Despite what we've been told, the planet won't be saved
               | by worker-bees biking to work. It'll be saved by not
               | having the ultra-wealthy flying everywhere in their
               | private jets, and not spending tens of millions of
               | dollars on multiple homes that are lavishly equipped /
               | use massive quantities of energy to heat and cool / have
               | armies of people keeping them clean and the grounds
               | manicured.
        
               | cik2e wrote:
               | I'm not here to defend the ultra-wealthy but what you're
               | saying doesn't pass the sniff test. Aviation accounts for
               | just 12% of global CO2 emissions and households account
               | for 21%. Obviously, a very small percentage of that could
               | be attributed to the ultra-wealthy flying around in
               | private jets and owning multiple mansions.
               | 
               | On the other hand, a reasonable argument against the
               | wealthy elite would be that they are likely to have the
               | most significant influence on preempting policy that
               | could help deal with climate change. They would have the
               | most vested interest in maintaining the status quo, due
               | to their positions at the head of industry, and their
               | children would suffer the fewest consequences of
               | unmitigated climate change.
               | 
               | But then again, there is also a significant number of
               | voters, at least here in the United States, who aren't
               | going to get behind any policy that may cost jobs and
               | increase energy prices in the immediate term. And then
               | there's China, putting out 27% of total global carbon
               | emissions.
               | 
               | So as convenient as it would be to just blame the rich,
               | climate change is simply too broad an issue to put on the
               | shoulders of any one group or entity, even China.
        
           | long_time_gone wrote:
           | ==Here's what will 100% not work -- Activism or Trying to
           | 'Policy' out of your way of Climate Change problems.==
           | 
           | Capitalism and Free Market are solutions today exactly
           | because we have aligned our "policy" to make clean energy
           | more attractive to capitalists. People quickly forget
           | policies like the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of
           | 2009 [1] which invested $80 billion in clean energy. Tesla
           | might not exist today if the DOE didn't loan them $465
           | million as part of the Energy Independence and Security Act
           | of 2007 [2].
           | 
           | [1] https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-
           | office/2016/0...
           | 
           | [2] https://www.cnbc.com/id/100759230
        
             | deltree7 wrote:
             | It's delusional to think Tesla wouldn't have existed
             | without government help.
             | 
             | Tesla took a cheap government loan when it was available.
             | 
             | Do you really think, Musk wouldn't have raised the piddly
             | $500 Million from on his multiple silicon valley buddies?
             | (including Thiel, Page)?
        
               | long_time_gone wrote:
               | The $465 million loan was given in April 2010. Tesla
               | IPO'd in in June 2010 at a $1.7 billion valuation [1].
               | Maybe someone else would have given them the low-interest
               | loan, we'll never know. We do know that this loan and the
               | government subsidized EV tax credits helped them weather
               | some very rough cashflow years.
               | 
               | [1]
               | https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-10-anniversary-
               | ipo-el...
        
           | nawgz wrote:
           | Yes, Capitalism will surely solve the problem that Capitalism
           | wrought, and using tools like Regulation and Policy is sure
           | to hamper Capitalism and not help consumers or the
           | environment at all!
           | 
           | How sad it is that the comment suggesting we try to not
           | continue overpopulating the globe is downvoted while this
           | propaganda piece isn't.
        
             | dgfitz wrote:
             | We're not overpopulating it anymore. That "solution"
             | presents its own problems.
             | 
             | https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53409521
        
               | nawgz wrote:
               | If by "we" you mean "the first world as it devolves into
               | wealth inequality", sure, but it's clear there's nearly 8
               | billion people, so a 2.4 fertility rate not projected to
               | turn til the end of the century probably still leaves us
               | with 9 billion people by 2070 don't you think?
               | 
               | And indeed, it is a massive problem that we face, but do
               | you truly think proposing regulation-free unhampered-by-
               | policy capital-c Capitalism - in an era we are watching
               | abuse against employees rise while wages drop - is the
               | answer? I find that laughably propagandist.
        
               | dgfitz wrote:
               | Imposing population limits in the developed world won't
               | change anything other than make population decrease
               | problems occur faster. If this rate of birth decline
               | continues, we'll have a super healthy green planet, and
               | no humans to inhabit it.
               | 
               | This isn't an argument against solar technologies et. al.
               | It's just the next problem that we don't have an Al Gore
               | for trumpeting it as an issue before it was widely known.
        
               | nawgz wrote:
               | > Imposing population limits in the developed world
               | 
               | It is hard to read this and mention of "Al Gore" as
               | anything other than arguing in bad faith. No one would
               | propose to introduce population control in a place where
               | that is not a problem.
               | 
               | Instead, reasonable actors would propose that we work to
               | dismantle the global inequality that incentivizes
               | impoverished families in the exploited third-world to
               | birth many children by reigning in the ability for
               | corporations to act as slavers in the third world and
               | simultaneously pretend to be beacons of progress in the
               | first. Wealth inequality, or maybe more precisely
               | poverty, is a top driver of population growth, as
               | children are cheaper to acquire than labor so those who
               | need currency desperately are incentivized to birth
               | children (and into horrendous conditions at that).
               | 
               | Reforming the nature of globalist capitalism would surely
               | both help to curb population growth in these places as
               | they became less impoverished and greatly improve our
               | ethics.
        
             | IntrepidWorm wrote:
             | Probably because population control threads so often
             | devolve into eugenics.
        
               | nawgz wrote:
               | Sure, and Capitalism devolves into late-stage regulatory-
               | capture wealth-inequality race-to-the-bottom massive
               | globally scaled abuses of both people and the planet. To
               | propose that we just simply have to let "capitalists" fix
               | the solution they have wrought is facile at best, and
               | honestly strikes me as clearly malicious when in the same
               | breath it is implied regulation and policy are the the
               | enemy.
        
           | mitigating wrote:
           | Capitalism and the free market have already been in use and
           | the single cause of the all environmental problems.
        
             | kspacewalk2 wrote:
             | I'm gonna suggest that electricity is the single cause of
             | the all environmental problems. Haven't pretty much all of
             | environmental problems occurred since its unwise discovery?
             | And, you know, electricity and man-made climate change are
             | both about energy. So there you go.
        
           | pjmorris wrote:
           | > Here's what will 100% not work -- Activism or Trying to
           | 'Policy' out of your way of Climate Change problems.
           | 
           | Two questions:
           | 
           | 1. Are you familiar with the concept of the tragedy of the
           | commons? [0]
           | 
           | 2. How comfortable are you with the idea that capitalism and
           | free markets are policies?
           | 
           | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons
        
             | deltree7 wrote:
             | I very well know about Tragedy of Commons.
             | 
             | Property Rights, the bedrock of capitalism, if properly
             | enforced, by penalizing individuals/corps that
             | pollutes/destroys someone else's (including public)
             | property, takes care of most governmental action that is
             | needed.
             | 
             | "Enforce property and individual rights and get out of the
             | way".
        
           | d--b wrote:
           | I fail to see how capitalism and free markets, which optimize
           | for profit above all else can have any incentive in reigning
           | in climate change.
           | 
           | There is zero money in preventing deforestation. There is
           | zero money in carbon capture. There is zero money in keeping
           | ocean's level low.
           | 
           | But there is money in building levees and relocating sea-side
           | communities.
           | 
           | So technically capitalism will favor burning fossil fuels
           | over not doing it. And later when problems like these start
           | to arise, capitalists will create companies to cope with the
           | broken climate and make money off it.
        
             | deltree7 wrote:
             | If you apply property rights, the bedrock principle of
             | capitalism. You'll solve all of these externalities.
        
         | pelasaco wrote:
         | Population control. There is no way that we can fit 9-10
         | billion people on earth and are still able to be sustainable.
        
           | MildlySerious wrote:
           | The problem is more nuanced than that and just throwing out
           | "Population control." is completely meaningless.
           | 
           | You could cull three billion people of the lowest emitters
           | and it would have as much of an effect as halving the CO2
           | emissions of the top 1% of emitters.[1] And considering that
           | to avoid the worst of the climate crisis we need action
           | immediately or as close to it as possible, waiting for people
           | to die away will not help us. If the entire planet stopped
           | having babies today we would wait 65 years to get to half the
           | current population, and half the emissions.
           | 
           | At best, and I would argue even that is a stretch, population
           | control is one small part of a long term strategy. But it is
           | by no means a solution, so throwing it out there every time
           | people talk about sustainability does nothing but derail the
           | conversation.
           | 
           | What we really need is to to make consumption as sustainable
           | as possible and reduce it where possible, especially for the
           | top consumers. That is not only more feasible in the short
           | term, it is probably more ethical as well.
           | 
           | [1] https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/carbon-emissions-
           | ric...
        
           | pitaj wrote:
           | Overpopulation is a myth.
        
           | notyourday wrote:
           | > Population control. There is no way that we can fit 9-10
           | billion people on earth and are still able to be sustainable.
           | 
           | All BRICs are below replacement already.
        
           | seltzered_ wrote:
           | You need to be careful with this framing and also think about
           | 'Population Pressure' in regards to most developed countries
           | - https://goodlife.leeds.ac.uk/
        
           | irrational wrote:
           | This is a done deal for developed countries. All of them are
           | below the 2% replacement rate (many very far below). The
           | places where the replacement rate is at or above 2% (often
           | very far above 2%) are places where non-white people
           | primarily live. Suggesting that they need to stop having so
           | many children smacks of racism so it is politically and
           | socially not something that people are willing to talk about.
        
             | jasonwatkinspdx wrote:
             | It's not about race it's about access to modern medicine
             | and the jobs an industrialized economy brings. The reason
             | access to these things correlates with race in some nations
             | is, said briefly, colonialism and its continuing impact.
             | There are plenty of nations with birth rates below
             | replacement where white people are by far the minority as
             | well.
        
             | filoeleven wrote:
             | You're neglecting per capita resource usage. Population
             | control in low-usage high-birth rate countries has
             | insignificant effects. Reducing usage in high-usage
             | countries has outsized effects, and a low replacement rate
             | is not enough to mitigate them.
             | 
             | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_energy
             | _...
        
           | trhway wrote:
           | I suppose you can just schedule a cron to submit in 10 years
           | the same post with updated number to say 12B :)
           | 
           | Even with population control (suppose we found a way to do it
           | and managed to avoid the large negative consequences of it
           | which would be plenty) the uncontested growing consumption by
           | the current population would do the planet anyway.
           | 
           | Speaking about solutions - until significant part of Sahara
           | desert and the likes aren't covered by solar panels, i
           | wouldn't believe that anybody (who matters) is taking the
           | climate change seriously.
        
             | pelasaco wrote:
             | > Speaking about solutions - until significant part of
             | Sahara desert and the likes aren't covered by solar panels,
             | i wouldn't believe that anybody (who matters) is taking the
             | climate change seriously
             | 
             | I think it is harder than we think, at least for the goals
             | that Europe wants:
             | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OpM_zKGE4o
             | 
             | The caveat about population control, is different than how
             | we, humans, do with all other wild-life on planet earth, we
             | cannot reduce the available food and habitat to lower the
             | carrying capacity, compensate for the missing predators by
             | killing individuals in the population, or slow the
             | population's ability to reproduce..
             | 
             | We have to come up with a ethic solution. But people cannot
             | put 3-5 kids or more on earth and don't have the means to
             | raise them accordingly.
        
               | irrational wrote:
               | I know a family that had 13 children. They had "the means
               | to raise them accordingly" (basically they lived in a
               | middle class neighborhood, drove older cars, didn't hire
               | anyone to do work around their house - despite the father
               | having a very high paying chief financial officer
               | position with a large company). So... is it okay for
               | those kinds of people to have 3-5+ kids?
        
               | trhway wrote:
               | > I think it is harder than we think, at least for the
               | goals that Europe wants:
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OpM_zKGE4o
               | 
               | it seems that the main issue is that some invested in
               | concentrated solar while photovoltaics energy cost fell
               | from being 2x expensive to being 4x cheaper of the
               | concentrated and just beating everything out at
               | $0.03/KWh. As i said - cover the desert in solar panels.
               | Transmission is only 7% loss to Berlin.
               | 
               | Instead Europe is building gas pipelines from Russia and
               | others. Again, money talk, and that clearly shows that
               | nobody takes climate change seriously.
        
               | HappyDreamer wrote:
               | > We have to come up with a ethic solution
               | 
               | If you try, won't some people somewhere on the Internet,
               | get angry at the ideas you have, and start writing angry
               | things to and about you?
        
             | HappyDreamer wrote:
             | > cron to submit in 10 years the same post with updated
             | number to say 12B
             | 
             | Apparently not, look:
             | 
             | https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-projected-
             | reach-...
             | 
             |  _" World population projected to reach 9.8 billion in
             | 2050, and 11.2 billion in 2100"_
             | 
             | It's slowing down. But increasing a lot, in a few
             | countries. (I didn't downvote b.t.w)
        
       | twoquestions wrote:
       | What I'm really worried about is the people who think this kind
       | of damage is good per se, either out of general misanthropy or
       | some sort of tribal hatred. Meeting these kind of challenges are
       | well within our technical capability, but I fear not within our
       | moral/financial/political capability.
        
       | mensetmanusman wrote:
       | It's basically a foregone conclusion that the water levels will
       | rise and envelop a large number of properties that exist due to
       | the value of coastal real estate.
       | 
       | Humans, because we are mostly water, love being close to water
       | and seeing water.
       | 
       | The question in my mind is whether we will get a waterworld type
       | situation, or if everything will be left to be destroyed and we
       | will re settle the new coasts.
        
         | colechristensen wrote:
         | There isn't enough water for a "waterworld situation", the
         | icecaps have been completely gone in the distant past and there
         | were rainforests near the poles.
         | 
         | There also won't be a singular event that will be over, coasts
         | are going to slowly walk inland.
        
           | outworlder wrote:
           | There was dry land in Waterworld.
        
             | wccrawford wrote:
             | That most people thought was a myth.
        
           | mensetmanusman wrote:
           | Oh, aha, not waterworld over all the land, just floating
           | houses within the mile of coast as it exists.
        
         | technothrasher wrote:
         | > Humans, because we are mostly water, love being close to
         | water and seeing water.
         | 
         | I've heard plenty of attempts to explain thalassophilia, but I
         | have to admit I've never heard that one.
        
       | an9n wrote:
       | Always worth pointing out the absolute pointlessness of 'could',
       | 'will... ?' etc. articles. I mean, I 'could' start a company that
       | cures cancer, solves poverty, takes us to new galaxies and
       | elevates humanity to a transcendant level of conciousness.
       | Whether I will or not is an entirely different question!
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headline...
       | 
       | 'Betteridge's law of headlines is an adage that states: "Any
       | headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word
       | no." It is named after Ian Betteridge, a British technology
       | journalist who wrote about it in 2009, although the principle is
       | much older.[1][2] It is based on the assumption that if the
       | publishers were confident that the answer was yes, they would
       | have presented it as an assertion; by presenting it as a
       | question, they are not accountable for whether it is correct or
       | not.'.
        
       | cookingmyserver wrote:
       | Is the ground water near a coast line brackish?
        
         | nemo wrote:
         | On the Florida and Texas coasts the groundwater is brackish,
         | and with the increasing sea levels from AGW, that salinity is
         | intruding further and further inland.
        
           | mythrwy wrote:
           | But sea levels haven't increased very much in either of those
           | places (yet). Certainly not enough to be responsible for the
           | observed effect.
           | 
           | What happens is the freshwater aquifers are drained giving
           | the salt/brackish water space to intrude.
        
             | nemo wrote:
             | Draining aquifers and lower levels of rainfall in FL are
             | definitely also contributing (as are things like the Turkey
             | Point plant near Miami) but the moderate sea level
             | increases in FL and parts of the Gulf coast are also having
             | an effect on rising salinity in aquifers. Increased storm
             | surges and sea level rises have driven salinity further
             | inland. So you're right that are also other factors, but
             | one root cause is the effect of rising sea levels. Consider
             | what's happening in Miami carefully.
             | 
             | https://cnsmaryland.org/2020/11/23/salt-levels-in-
             | floridas-g...
        
         | hoffspot wrote:
         | Depends on many factors but brackish groudwater does exist near
         | coastlines either naturally or via intrusion from human over
         | pumping. Example of the latter from LA:
         | https://www.wrd.org/content/regional-brackish-water-reclamat...
        
         | dwater wrote:
         | Yes, and it's an increasing problem for coastal communities.
         | 
         | https://www.miamidade.gov/global/water/conservation/saltwate...
        
           | TheOtherHobbes wrote:
           | Climate change is going to cause a lot of increasing
           | problems. Brackish groundwater, loss of drinking water,
           | fires, flash floods in areas that have never experienced them
           | or been designed to cope with them, large scale flooding,
           | loss of farmland, loss of commercial areas including ports
           | and transport hubs, tornadoes, hurricanes, and larger and
           | more damaging storms - generally creeping loss of habitable
           | infrastructure, and increasing damage to supply chains.
           | 
           | Anyone who thinks owning a property somehow insulates them
           | from change is going to be in for nasty surprises.
        
             | shadowgovt wrote:
             | If anything, owning a property ties one to the fate of a
             | geographic location, and the oncoming climate change means
             | the function and utility of lots of geography will change
             | rapidly.
        
         | mikey_p wrote:
         | Yes, I know there are parts of Orange County that have water
         | injection wells that pump water into the ground along the coast
         | to keep fresh water in the aquifer to prevent it filling with
         | brackish water. Some googling around shows it might be called
         | the Talbert Seawater Intrusion Barrier.
        
           | CameronNemo wrote:
           | I remember touring the sanitation plant when I was took an
           | environmental science class in high school. They said they
           | did fourth stage water treatment then injected the treated
           | water into the aquifer. They are right near Talbert. It is
           | going to be difficult to fight this tide.
           | 
           | Also if you are Mike Posey please blink once.
        
       | effnorwood wrote:
       | My gosh! Someone tell Obama!
        
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