[HN Gopher] A key inflation measure rose to a 39-year high last ...
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       A key inflation measure rose to a 39-year high last month
        
       Author : pezzana
       Score  : 93 points
       Date   : 2021-12-10 14:05 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (lite.cnn.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (lite.cnn.com)
        
       | melling wrote:
       | Where do people find good discussions about the economy,
       | investing, etc?
       | 
       | Anyone taking a deeper dive into the Fed, global markets, QE,
       | China, etc
       | 
       | Btw, this was an interesting read:
       | 
       | https://www.bridgewater.com/its-mostly-a-demand-shock-not-a-...
        
         | nprz wrote:
         | Lyn Alden probably has some of the best commentary on the
         | current state of the US economy. Would highly recommend
         | checking out her blog if you're looking to learn more:
         | https://www.lynalden.com/
        
         | Nick87633 wrote:
         | There is a lot of chaff but I find it here on HN, reddit
         | (personal finance, investing, wall street bets, quality convos
         | in other random subs), and a limited number of posters on
         | Twitter (probably my least favorite place, bleh).
        
         | jonnycomputer wrote:
         | https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
         | 
         | https://econbrowser.com/
        
       | bko wrote:
       | From WSJ article:
       | 
       | > Unlike in past recoveries, strong demand for goods such as
       | autos, furniture and appliances has driven much of the inflation
       | surge. Prices for services--such as for travel and recreation--
       | have generally climbed much less with softer demand. The holiday
       | season is likely exacerbating these dynamics, said Aneta
       | Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC.
       | 
       | We're seeing crazy price growth without a rise in demand for
       | services. But that'll likely change and fuel inflation further as
       | covid restrictions are lifted.
       | 
       | I still believe it is due to the large money printing by the Fed,
       | a total of around 10 trillion disbursed for various programs. We
       | saw inflation in nearly every asset class in our economy, blowing
       | past pre-covid numbers, and now its coming to consumer prices. I
       | just hope we have the political will to do something about it.
       | Unemployment is very low and the Fed is still dragging their feet
       | about maybe 1 or 2 potential raises next year and a slow
       | unwinding of the trillions in assets its built up over the last
       | year
        
         | jyounker wrote:
         | > I still believe it is due to the large money printing by the
         | Fed, a total of around 10 trillion disbursed for various
         | programs. W
         | 
         | If the Fed's policy was responsible, then we'd see a divergence
         | between inflation rates in European countries and the US. We
         | don't though. European inflation rates (across the board)
         | closely track what's happening in the US.
         | 
         | What we do see is a similar demand reallocation in both
         | portions of the world. Demand has shifted from services to
         | goods, and that increased demand drives inflation.
        
         | redwood wrote:
         | Aligns with https://www.bridgewater.com/its-mostly-a-demand-
         | shock-not-a-...
        
         | redwood wrote:
         | You could argue we've been engaging in a massive scale basic
         | income for all Experiment!
        
       | pjc50 wrote:
       | > Consumer price inflation rose by 6.8% without seasonal
       | adjustments over the 12 months ended November, the Bureau of
       | Labor Statistics reported Friday.
       | 
       | > Stripping out food and energy, the prices of which tend to be
       | more volatile, inflation rose 4.9% over the same period -- the
       | highest level since June 1991.
       | 
       | This is high by recent standards but not too bad by 20th century
       | standards. And at least this time wage inflation is happening as
       | well.
       | 
       | > Several categories saw significant price increases. Gas prices
       | jumped 58.1% over the year ending in November, the biggest jump
       | since April 1980.
       | 
       | .. ah. Yeah, this is much more significant. Oil is up too: WTI
       | about $40 at the end of last year to $70-80. As lots of places
       | have found out, fossil fuels are cheap until they aren't.
       | 
       | High oil prices are quite capable of causing inflation on their
       | own.
        
         | woodruffw wrote:
         | The YoY metric for oil is slightly misleading, due to the chaos
         | that was 2020's market[1].
         | 
         | It was at 59.22 on this day in 2019, and now it's at 69.62.
         | That's a significant increase, but it's not the eye-popping 2x
         | jump that the YoY number suggests.
         | 
         | Gas prices, on the other hand, are surprisingly divergent[2].
         | 
         | [1]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO
         | 
         | [2]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW
        
       | csours wrote:
       | Inflation has been lower and more consistent over the last 39
       | years (and especially over the last 20 years) than any time in
       | history. If you live in the United States and you're my age or
       | younger, you haven't had to worry about inflation for your whole
       | adult working life.
       | 
       | This doesn't make today's inflation acceptable, it just lets you
       | know how much importance has been put on handling inflation up
       | until now.
        
         | nathias wrote:
         | that's isn't saying much as the current monetary system only
         | exists for 50 years
        
         | SubiculumCode wrote:
         | Well, I'd argue that inflation has been kept too low, placing
         | burdens on debt-holders and lowering growth, which in my view
         | contributed to the decimation of the middle class.
        
           | csours wrote:
           | I'm not qualified to assess that, but I do think that it's
           | hard to balance the needs of wealthy people and wall street
           | with the needs of main street; it's even harder if you don't
           | try to do that balance
        
         | dnautics wrote:
         | you haven't been poor, have you? I have been, and I definitely
         | worried about inflation. In the early aughts ratcheting prices
         | really fucked me over on a 26k salary.
        
           | csours wrote:
           | I haven't been poor as an adult. I was definitely poor as a
           | child.
           | 
           | Inflation is different things to different people, just like
           | unemployment numbers are different things to different people
           | and communities. Unemployment may be low, but if you don't
           | have a job, that doesn't matter.
           | 
           | Yes, the top line inflation number can be very misleading for
           | individual experiences.
        
         | throwaway0a5e wrote:
         | >Inflation has been lower and more consistent over the last 39
         | years (and especially over the last 20 years) than any time in
         | history.
         | 
         | The entire 19th century would take issue with that statement.
         | 
         | We've had about as much inflation since 1990, not including
         | current pandemic related shenanigans, as they had in that
         | entire century.
        
       | mercy_dude wrote:
       | For all the people in the "transitory camp" here are a few things
       | I would like you to reconsider:
       | 
       | - "underlying supply chain will go back normal" well the way I
       | see it the container owners and everyone downstream have no
       | incentives for doing so. [1]
       | 
       | - China is facing water crisis among many other issues from
       | energy crisis as well. If the main supplier of US faces crisis it
       | will likely affect US as well. [2]
       | 
       | - and many actually don't understand this, Fed actually has
       | incentives to get inflation. For many years they spent time to
       | get inflation and recently even accepted they will let it run
       | beyond the benchmark 2%. Part of the argument is Fed currently
       | has no leverage or tools left in an economic downturn given the
       | amount of debt in the balance sheet. A mere 5% raise in interest
       | rate would require interest payment equivalent of another US
       | army. So rate hikes of any substantial measure is out of question
       | without bankrupting US. The easiest way is to inflate the 40
       | trillion debt away like they did post war in the 40s. [3]
       | 
       | [1] https://medium.com/@ryan79z28/im-a-twenty-year-truck-
       | driver-...
       | 
       | [2] https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-
       | environment/584266-americ...
       | 
       | [3] https://www.lynalden.com/inflation/
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | jjcon wrote:
         | > China is facing water crisis among many other issues from
         | energy crisis as well. If the main supplier of US faces crisis
         | it will likely affect US as well.
         | 
         | China is only 14% of US trade (third place after mexico and
         | Canada) - still a lot but not as big of a player as that sounds
        
         | dnautics wrote:
         | China is no longer the main supplier of the US (it still is a
         | very large supplier), but otherwise spot on.
        
         | jonnycomputer wrote:
         | 1. Actual throughput in our ports is up over previous levels.
         | Its demand that has increased, a combination of redistribution
         | downwards (through better wages, government benefits) and pent
         | up savings. There's already evidence savings are depleted for
         | lower income households (as evidenced by increased credit card
         | balances). 2. Perhaps you could explain why container owners
         | have no incentive to increase their business volume. 3. The US
         | systematically undershot its 2% inflation target for years. It
         | acted more like an upper bound. Its good that its gone over.
         | Just now we've overshot. But we've overshot by a fair margin.
         | So I think they'll pull back as soon as any perceived softness
         | of the real economy has gone away.
        
           | mercy_dude wrote:
           | > Perhaps you could explain why container owners have no
           | incentive to increase their business volume.
           | 
           | The article I linked does a fairly good job explaining it.
           | Basically if you are a container owner, you can charge 10x
           | the price for containers from Shanghai to Long Island, while
           | the other way it's almost a loss since it's returning empty.
           | 
           | The decline in ships waiting just offshore of Los
           | Angeles/Long Beach continues to be touted as a sign that port
           | congestion is easing -- despite the fact that the true number
           | of waiting ships has not actually declined.
           | 
           | https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1466424994670518279
        
           | Thrymr wrote:
           | > 1. Actual throughput in our ports is up over previous
           | levels.
           | 
           | Not true in general. The port of Long Beach is down 5% year-
           | on-year (the third month in a row that is down compared with
           | 2020) [0].
           | 
           | [0] https://gcaptain.com/amid-record-breaking-year-port-of-
           | long-...
        
             | conjecTech wrote:
             | It's still up 25% from 2019 numbers:
             | https://polb.com/business/port-statistics/#teus-
             | archive-1995....
        
             | gilbetron wrote:
             | That link supports the premise, you just chose a specific
             | timeframe which had a small decline, the overall levels for
             | the year are a huge increase:
             | 
             | "Through November, the Port of Long Beach has processed
             | more than 8.6 million TEU, up over 18% from last year and
             | already surpassing the annual record of 8.1 million TEUs
             | set in 2020."
        
           | dv_dt wrote:
           | Demand is increased, but I suspect its inventory backfill
           | from a very slow previous year overlaid with maintaining
           | ongoing inventory flow.
        
         | conjecTech wrote:
         | Merchants don't usually _want_ to lower prices proactively, but
         | it 's done all the time because they do not exist in a
         | competitive vacuum.
         | 
         | From inception, container shipping has been plagued by
         | oversupply because of the economies of bigger and bigger boats.
         | That was still true 3 years ago. Shipping businesses were going
         | bankrupt left and right. It is a commodity good with a
         | relatively low cost of entry. If the existing companies don't
         | feel like lowering prices, others will step in and happily take
         | their market share.
        
         | bachmeier wrote:
         | > Fed actually has incentives to get inflation
         | 
         | Time's too valuable to get into a meaningless discussion about
         | this, but they've had the same incentive for decades. Take a
         | look at the inflation rate for the 30 years 1991-2020:
         | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL#0
        
         | SubiculumCode wrote:
         | Post war was a pretty good time for Americans. Bring it on.
        
           | mercy_dude wrote:
           | Except US has also hollowed out manufacturing becoming
           | increasingly dependent on rival China (even for defence
           | equipments), has been increasingly losing its sphere of
           | influence (both soft and hard - ask anyone in Africa who
           | wields its soft power there China or US; or look at the
           | Afghanistan fallout), and there is very little bipartisanship
           | left while everyone is busy fighting cultural war.
           | 
           | One can hope at least de globalization is a partial outcome
           | of this post covid realignment if ever one.
        
             | xwdv wrote:
             | What if China and US teamed up in a war against some common
             | super enemy?
        
             | greedo wrote:
             | The US is dependent on China for defense equipment? Can you
             | provide any examples?
        
               | mercy_dude wrote:
               | https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2021/06/28
               | /no...
        
               | greedo wrote:
               | That article has zero mentions of China being a supplier,
               | of either systems or components.
        
               | Supermancho wrote:
               | Chip fabrication.
        
               | greedo wrote:
               | Can you back this up with any links? If we banish Huawei
               | from US infrastructure, I can't imagine the DoD signing
               | off on any chips built in the PRC.
        
             | ethbr0 wrote:
             | We'll see how friendly Africa is to China, when
             | infrastructure debt payments start getting tight.
        
               | trcarney wrote:
               | China doesn't care about the debt payments. It is about
               | maintaining the relationships in Africa so the countries
               | there will favor China over the US in trade deals for
               | resources.
        
         | q1w2 wrote:
         | China is bringing nearly 25 1GW nuclear plants online over the
         | next 5 years. They additionally have investments all over
         | Africa for the export of natural resources like coal/oil. I
         | really don't see them falling into crisis over energy.
        
           | londons_explore wrote:
           | 25GW really isn't much for a nation the size of China. 25GW
           | is really just insurance against forgetting how to build them
           | like most of the west has.
           | 
           | 1000 GWatts... Now that would make a dent.
        
       | mcs5280 wrote:
       | The fed has chosen to bleed the poor and middle class to keep the
       | government spending, housing and stock market bubbles going.
        
         | SubiculumCode wrote:
         | This is the opposite of what is happening. There has been a
         | massive transfer of wealth and income to the middle and lower
         | classes at a rate that exceeds inflation, and that I hope will
         | lead to sustained growth of the middle class.
        
           | Supermancho wrote:
           | > This is the opposite of what is happening.
           | 
           | This is _exactly_ what is happening. The motivations may be
           | partly^ different, but the result is one of the wealth
           | inequality gap growing.
           | 
           | ^I'm not sure how it could be incidental, given the obvious
           | consequences.
        
       | bhelkey wrote:
       | > a key measure of inflation climbed to a level not seen since
       | June 1982.
       | 
       | Am I missing something in the article? Which key measure?
       | 
       | The only other time 1982 is measured in this article is the
       | following:
       | 
       | > Food prices in restaurants jumped 5.8%, the biggest rise since
       | January 1982.
        
       | laurensr wrote:
       | I'm not an economic expert, but the rate at which new money was
       | created in 2020 & 2021 is frightening:
       | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL
        
         | kbaker wrote:
         | That M1 discontinuity at least has an explanation:
         | 
         | https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/05/savings-are-now-more...
         | 
         | Still a lot of money being printed, but not 10s of Trillions.
        
         | merpnderp wrote:
         | Maybe 1/4th of that is regulation changes on m1 versus m2
         | holdings, so just banks moving money around. But yes, they
         | printed a crap ton of money.
        
       | bryanlarsen wrote:
       | The Fed had to choose between inflation and recession. They chose
       | inflation, and made the right choice.
        
         | kickout wrote:
         | Care to explain why a recession is a better choice to
         | inflation?
        
           | kahrl wrote:
           | He literally said the opposite.
        
         | TedShiller wrote:
         | They made a decision but it's not the right decision
        
           | bryanlarsen wrote:
           | You'd rather have a recession than inflation? Are you a
           | pensioner? That's the only group that I think would benefit
           | in that scenario.
        
             | deburo wrote:
             | A recession caused by the government stopping corporate
             | activities. As soon as the restrictions would have been
             | relaxed for good (and I think we can say that we're finally
             | in the clear, even tough Omicron worries (I personally
             | think it will be similar to Delta)), the economy would've
             | restarted just as well.
        
       | bitshiftfaced wrote:
       | Check out the median CPI growth compared to long term trends:
       | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDCPIM158SFRBCLE
        
       | acd wrote:
       | Central banks has caused the inflation by lowering interest rate
       | and creating record amounts of new debt.
        
       | XIVMagnus wrote:
       | I would love to understand why the fed hasn't increased interest
       | rates to counter the rapid increase of inflation..?
       | 
       | I remember learning some basic economics in 2019 about how the
       | U.S. learned a valuable lesson from 2008. How they will never
       | make the same mistakes of letting inflation go unchecked because
       | they have tools to work against it. Yet inflation has rapidly
       | scaled to 6.8% (reported). Also, I am keeping supply chain demand
       | in mind but I don't think it excuses the fed's decision to not
       | immediately start curbing high inflation rates. My guess is that
       | people with money are profiting and want to continue profiting
       | until it is no longer sustainable.
        
         | SubiculumCode wrote:
         | Lesson learned from 2008 was not fear ofinflation, it was fear
         | of not injecting adequate money into a market after a downturn.
         | I don't know what you're talking about.
        
         | neffy wrote:
         | It won't stop the inflation. When inflation is due to printing
         | money, the only thing that can be done is to sit back and wait
         | for it to work it's way through the system. All raising
         | interest rates would do is trigger a rerun of the Savings and
         | Loan Crisis, as the huge quantity of long term, fixed rate, low
         | interest rate loans, is suddenly devalued by short term, high
         | interest rate loans. (Which is probably going to happen anyway,
         | because Central Bank control over interest rates can be more
         | than slightly illusionary at times like this. (Lenders can work
         | out inflationary devaluation rates just as well as anybody else
         | can.)
         | 
         | 2008 was a very different scenario, the money that was printed
         | then was forced into a narrow loop within the financial system
         | and just used to sanitise a lot of bad debt away from the
         | banking system.
         | 
         | In some sense, the eventual logic of the last 20 years of
         | massive increases in the total amount of debt circulating, due
         | to loan securitisation, was that that debt would have to be
         | devalued to make it repayable. And here we are.
        
           | XIVMagnus wrote:
           | I appreciate you taking the time to explain why it wouldn't
           | stop inflation! Thanks a lot!
        
           | golemotron wrote:
           | What do you make of the rumors that the Fed will start to
           | hike interest rates next year?
        
             | trcarney wrote:
             | They won't, there will be too much political pressure for
             | the president with the mid term elections coming for the
             | fed to take the risk of raising rates. If they want to
             | raise rates, they will do it in 2023 so the current regime
             | can blame the fall out on, I'm assuming, the newly elected
             | Republican Congress.
             | 
             | I'm assuming the next cycle will be a huge win for
             | Republicans for two reasons.
             | 
             | 1) Things we saw in this last election. For example, a
             | truck driver won in New Jersey against their senate
             | president with a campaign budget of $153
             | 
             | 2) Joe Biden's approval rating the the the high to mid 20's
        
               | sharken wrote:
               | It's interesting how the unpopular decisions are pushed
               | back, but i think that's an accurate assessment of what
               | will happen.
               | 
               | Biden have just dipped below 40% approval rate and has a
               | lot on his plate with the texan abortion law:
               | 
               | https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/texass-abortion-law-
               | is-...
        
           | voisin wrote:
           | > When inflation is due to printing money, the only thing
           | that can be done is to sit back and wait for it to work it's
           | way through the system.
           | 
           | Source? This doesn't seem right to me at all.
        
             | samspenc wrote:
             | I suspect there is no source for this, but OP is just
             | summarizing what the Fed is hoping will happen -- basically
             | they have printed too much money but they don't want to
             | raise interest rates either, so they are just going to sit
             | back and wait for the excess money to flow through the
             | system.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | jonnycomputer wrote:
           | https://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/11/so-you-want-to-
           | be-a...
        
           | jyounker wrote:
           | Inflation in our circumstances isn't due to an increase in
           | the money supply. Here's why:
           | 
           | * Aggregate demands isn't too much different from before the
           | pandemic. * Demand for services has fallen into the toilet. *
           | Demand for goods has gone through the roof.
           | 
           | This massive reallocation of resources from one portion of
           | the economy to another has created a situation where demand
           | for goods far outstrips supply. Therefore we have inflation.
           | (Increases in food prices are caused congestion in the labor
           | market.)
           | 
           | This is not about US economic policy. You can see this by
           | looking at inflation rates in Europe (and specifically
           | Germany). These countries have very different economic
           | policies than the US, but their inflation rates pretty much
           | track what's happening in US. Therefore it is a common effect
           | driving inflation in both places.
        
           | anm89 wrote:
           | I disagree with this. Powell could blow up the entire economy
           | in about 5 seconds if he wanted to by saying rates will be 4%
           | in June and inflation would be done tomorrow. Housing would
           | tank, the stock market would tank, unemployment would sky
           | rocket, wage growth would immediately stop and probably
           | revert a bit. Inflation could have some ups and downs from
           | there but I don't think it would average above 2.
           | 
           | The problem is we can't raise rates without blowing up the
           | economy, not that it wouldn't stop inflation. It doesn't
           | matter how much money is in the system if you nuke velocity
           | back to near zero.
           | 
           | I'm talking in the medium term here. Because the response to
           | this is in my mind literally a 10-20 trillion dollar stimulus
           | package. THEN we will see inflation.
        
             | unyttigfjelltol wrote:
             | We're assuming the lever of markedly higher interest rates
             | over a long period of time, generates in this tremendously
             | complex economic machine, the output of lower consumer
             | inflation. I'm not sure we'll see that lever pulled anytime
             | soon, and if we do, I'm not confident it will work
             | precisely as you describe.
             | 
             | Asset price inflation will reverse. But that wasn't
             | trickling back to consumer inflation anyway.
             | 
             | Think of it this way. If you had 10x your annual salary to
             | store somewhere, and the values of traditional stores of
             | wealth (e.g., stocks, bonds, and real estate) were
             | seriously stuck in reverse for the foreseeable future,
             | where would you stash your value? Sardines? Bottles of
             | wine?
             | 
             | We forget how young modern finance is, basically since the
             | 1970s. For the first 10 years of that era, both interest
             | rates and consumer inflation increased in tandem. We've
             | built a narrative around that correlation, but what if that
             | narrative is incomplete?
        
         | anm89 wrote:
         | Because half of US companies and the US government itself as
         | long as basically every pension and retirement fund are levered
         | up either directly or indirectly to their eyeballs in cheap
         | debt.
         | 
         | Our entire system would quickly be insolvent at a rate that
         | would have seemed low 20 years ago.
        
         | pjc50 wrote:
         | Well, they've written their reasons down:
         | https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/19/federal-reserve-powells-5-ke...
         | 
         | Basically they can only control inflation in the future, and
         | they believe the inflation we've just seen is a result of the
         | one-off of the pandemic response. Given that the interest rate
         | mechanism affects inflation by increasing unemployment and
         | harming the economy, they don't want to do that until it's
         | necessary.
         | 
         | (I should note that it's theoretically possible to do inflation
         | control by _fiscal_ policy, i.e. mop up some of the spare money
         | by taxation, but that 's obviously not going to happen)
        
           | dantheman wrote:
           | Probably better to just reduce government spending than
           | increase taxes.
        
             | wbsss4412 wrote:
             | Do you believe it is ever proper to raise taxes?
             | 
             | I can't help but assume that this is a fairy dogmatic,
             | rather than a nuanced response.
        
         | throw0101a wrote:
         | > I would love to understand why the fed hasn't increased
         | interest rates to counter the rapid increase of inflation..?
         | 
         | Will increased interest rates unclog ports and reduce
         | transportation costs? Will it reduce gas prices? Will it shift
         | spending from goods to services?
         | 
         | It is necessary to look at the components of the CPI to see
         | where the increases came from instead of looking at just the
         | headlines.
        
         | CrimpCity wrote:
         | My understanding is that increasing interest rates would tame
         | inflation however there will be a slight recession or dip since
         | prices will fall and given the upcoming elections the powers
         | that be want a VERY gradual uptick with minimal economic
         | fallout. You're damned if you do and damned if you don't.
        
         | myth_drannon wrote:
         | Housing and Stock market bubbles will implode.
        
           | voxadam wrote:
           | If they're bubbles aren't they going to implode regardless?
        
             | xwdv wrote:
             | Bubbles don't have to implode. They can just reach a point
             | where there's a long consolidation and things are sideways
             | until reality fully rationalizes the bubble and it shrinks.
             | 
             | This happens all the time with stocks. A stock could get
             | very bubbly and reach an insane valuation to the point
             | people think it will pop! But then it never does, instead
             | it just stops rising and the underlying company eventually
             | catches up to the valuation, until people think it's a good
             | buy again and start pumping the price even higher to the
             | next leg up. Eventually the stock can never truly pop and
             | go back to the pre-bubble levels because in the time that
             | has passed the company actually did become more valuable.
        
         | sleepysysadmin wrote:
         | >I would love to understand why the fed hasn't increased
         | interest rates to counter the rapid increase of inflation..?
         | 
         | Collapse of the underlying assets that they hold. Bailing out
         | the housing market during the pandemic means the fed holds lots
         | of housing market. The theory is that they will let the assets
         | mature and then pull the money back out to come back to a
         | balance. I'll tell you now, if you believe that's about to
         | happen I've got a bridge to sell you. The US still hadn't done
         | this the day before covid started. Covid is far worse.
         | 
         | >I remember learning some basic economics in 2019 about how the
         | U.S. learned a valuable lesson from 2008.
         | 
         | The irony is that the financial crisis at least help the USA
         | today. Compare this to other countries like Canada and we are
         | far worse off than the USA during the financial crisis.
         | 
         | >How they will never make the same mistakes of letting
         | inflation go unchecked because they have tools to work against
         | it.
         | 
         | Those tools are maxed out.
         | 
         | > Yet inflation has rapidly scaled to 6.8% (reported).
         | 
         | The fed made the claim that they would run inflation hotter
         | because they didnt hit target of 2% during covid. The problem?
         | They had to act by now. They've past that threshold of coming
         | to parity.
         | 
         | >Also, I am keeping supply chain demand in mind but I don't
         | think it excuses the fed's decision to not immediately start
         | curbing high inflation rates. My guess is that people with
         | money are profiting and want to continue profiting until it is
         | no longer sustainable.
         | 
         | The metric to look at was GDP. When GDP was 6.7%, inflation was
         | at 5.4% or so. The big problem is that gdp dropped to 2.1% and
         | recession metrics spiked.
         | 
         | If the fed increases rates while gdp is dropping. recession is
         | certain. It's too late for them to undo what they did bailing
         | out the housing market. It would seem counterproductive to
         | spend all this money to prevent housing from crashing just to
         | let it crash anyway.
         | 
         | So we're stuck. Inflation is going sky high. It looks to be
         | about 40% locked in right now over the next few years.
         | 
         | You thought minimum wage wasnt keeping up? This is literally
         | everyone except the rich getting much poorer soon.
        
           | long_time_gone wrote:
           | Other data points worth noting:
           | 
           | - Wages in the US increased 9.8% in October of 2021 over the
           | same month in the previous year.
           | https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth
           | 
           | - The Estimate for Q4 GDP growth is 8.7%.
           | https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
        
           | greedo wrote:
           | Wait, you're predicting 40% inflation in the US over the next
           | few years?
        
             | hermitdev wrote:
             | Not the person you're responding to, but 6.8% compounded
             | over 4 years is 30%, at 5 years, you're at 39%...
        
               | greedo wrote:
               | Yes, but that's not what the parent was saying. They were
               | clearly implying 40% YoY, which is beyond even zero hedge
               | nonsense.
        
           | XIVMagnus wrote:
           | Thanks a lot for the explanation! I greatly appreciate you
           | taking the time to break things down for me.
        
             | sleepysysadmin wrote:
             | >Thanks a lot for the explanation! I greatly appreciate you
             | taking the time to break things down for me.
             | 
             | It's a super complex issue that even the Fed probably has
             | yet to understand. So I certainly don't as well. Many
             | consequences could happen instead.
             | 
             | Flipside, what just happened? The government effectively
             | owns a huge portion of land again. Sure someone else is
             | holding the title but really the government owns it. The
             | banks/funds sold it to the government because they know
             | they dont want to hold it.
             | 
             | What does communism look like? The government owns
             | everything.
        
         | drdec wrote:
         | > I would love to understand why the fed hasn't increased
         | interest rates to counter the rapid increase of inflation..?
         | 
         | One reason is that they are still purchasing assets in order to
         | goose the economy. It doesn't make any sense to be revving the
         | economy with one hand while tamping it down with the other plus
         | the point of the buying is to artificially depress interest
         | rates. IIRC at the last meeting they announced that they would
         | accelerate the tapering down of asset purchases so that they
         | would be done in March.
         | 
         | They also like to move slowly which is why they don't just halt
         | the asset purchases and start raising rates. They treat the
         | economy with kid gloves so they don't break it (right or wrong,
         | for better or for worse, that's how it goes).
        
         | sealthedeal wrote:
         | They cant raise interest rates. If they do it will be nominal.
         | We have too much debt. If we raise interest rates we will
         | bankrupt ourselves. Inflation helps us chip away at the debt .
        
           | [deleted]
        
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