[HN Gopher] Why TV Lost (2009)
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Why TV Lost (2009)
        
       Author : zuhayeer
       Score  : 43 points
       Date   : 2021-12-09 06:49 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.paulgraham.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.paulgraham.com)
        
       | julienchastang wrote:
       | TV did not lose (just the opposite). We live in a Golden Era of
       | an incredible abundance of great TV (including a large selection
       | of foreign shows which was never possible before). Moreover it is
       | a better business model and content is higher quality (in
       | general). Also, I still enjoy antenna TV because of high def
       | broadcasts which involve less image compression.
        
         | C19is20 wrote:
         | Where (what country) are you talking about?
        
         | leephillips wrote:
         | Digital broadcast used to be the best image source available to
         | watch on your TV. As you say, far better than cable or
         | streaming because of the lack of compression. Is that still the
         | case?
        
         | ghaff wrote:
         | Antenna tv isn't an option for many of us. The context of the
         | piece is clearly broadcast TV. Obviously the general format is
         | going strong.
        
         | mpalmer wrote:
         | Higher quality in general? No way. There's way, way too many
         | streaming shows that aim for the middle. Tons of
         | reality/competition shows, tons of superhero shows where dialog
         | and plot take a backseat to looking cool. TONS of garbage
         | animation and children's shows.
         | 
         | From where I sit, it's way easier today than 5 years ago to
         | find something _new_ to watch, but way harder to find something
         | great.
        
           | jacobr1 wrote:
           | Discoverability is real problem. But even then we have more
           | prestige, high-quality TV being created today than a few
           | decades ago.
        
           | rhino369 wrote:
           | We are in a silver age of TV right now.
           | 
           | The golden age was caused by cable networks venturing hard
           | into original programing and it started right around the
           | Sopranos. But the golden age ended 5-7 years ago as talent
           | got spread too thin, the number of shows exploded, and the
           | streaming services started pivoting to mass entertainment
           | rather than critical acclaim.
           | 
           | But prior to the golden age, TV was very lowest common
           | denominator. Almost everything aimed for the middle. Of
           | course, there were great shows in all eras, but TV is much
           | best post-2000 than pre-2000.
        
           | agumonkey wrote:
           | It's anecdotal but as a kid we had japanese anime on tv.
           | There was a surprising amount of quality (considering the
           | tech used for production). And some animes like saint seiya,
           | have .. to my half educated ears.. world class OST [0].
           | Others like Space Adventure Cobra also featured very fancy
           | jazz funk. It's somehow unbelievable that at the time,
           | companies would allocate money for such features. Maybe it
           | was the spirit of the era.. a kind of spiritual drive in the
           | air (new technology, promises of the post war future, rising
           | tv market) making people doing their best.
           | 
           | And I can't help thinking that this energy is gone. It's
           | done, known, technology made everything available so there's
           | no real drive needed to try setting up a show and
           | broadcasting (an few iphones could do).
        
             | nindalf wrote:
             | Rose tinted glasses. I too have watched anime since I was a
             | kid and the quality of what they're making in the last few
             | years beats what I grew up with. Animation quality, plot
             | complexity and diversity, soundtracks, voice acting -
             | everything is as good or better. Compare anime that have
             | been remade, like Fruits Basket. The recent version is
             | vastly superior.
             | 
             | Look at the top 50 anime on MyAnimeList, probably the most
             | used anime site. (https://myanimelist.net/topanime.php).
             | This would be the equivalent of IMDb top 250.
             | 
             | - pre 2005 - 8
             | 
             | - 2006-10 - 5
             | 
             | - 2011-15 - 10
             | 
             | - 2016 to date - 27
             | 
             | You'd expect some recency bias but not to this extent
             | unless recent anime was really good. I've seen most of
             | these and they certainly deserve to be up there.
             | 
             | Look, I don't doubt that you enjoyed shows from when you
             | were a kid. I was obsessed with dragon ball z as a kid. But
             | try watching it now, it's just not that good. Nostalgia
             | makes them better in our memories than they actually were.
        
               | agumonkey wrote:
               | I didn't mention dbz btw. If you have soundtracks of
               | those I listed, feel free to spam me.
               | 
               | I admit having next to no knowledge of today, beside a
               | few returns from people watching animes (less positive
               | than you). And in any case I don't think SS OST is bound
               | to relativity, it's really instrumentally and
               | harmonically extraordinary. I'd place it near or even
               | above John Williams...
        
               | nindalf wrote:
               | Full Metal Alchemist Brotherhood. The best anime by any
               | measure. The soundtrack is extraordinary.
               | 
               | #1 all time on MyAnimeList and #19 all time on IMDb.
               | 
               | By the way I know you didn't mention DBZ. It was an
               | example of a show that I thought was incredible as a
               | child and simply doesn't hold up today. I speculate that
               | some of your favourites could be the same.
        
               | Jcowell wrote:
               | In my opinion Hiroyuki Sawano blesses any anime he
               | participates in. Truly a master of his craft.
        
           | marstall wrote:
           | more options at the high end, I'd agree with the general
           | point. check out the Topic app, which distributes a highly
           | curated set of quality foreign shows. Insane level of quality
           | across the board.
        
       | bloat wrote:
       | When did TV lose? In the UK the most popular show on a non-
       | traditional channel is in tenth place behind BBC and ITV shows.
       | 
       | https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2021/nov/30/squid-g...
        
       | krallja wrote:
       | I bought a new TV about the time this article came out. I think
       | I've watched maybe a dozen shows on it via the tuner. Every
       | single other thing has been either optical media, gaming, or
       | streaming.
       | 
       | The replacement I bought this year will probably never have
       | anything connected to its coax jack.
        
       | authed wrote:
       | We are heading back toward the "TV" era... Where speech is
       | controlled/censored 98% of the time. Take for example /r/politics
       | where 10-25% of daily front page posts are talking against Trump
       | and anyone going against their ideology will get banned.
        
         | krapp wrote:
         | >We are heading back toward the "TV" era... Where speech is
         | controlled/censored 98% of the time.
         | 
         | That's an odd assertion to make when you're talking about
         | Reddit, where anyone can fork a subreddit at any time, or even
         | the web where anyone can launch a website for free or without
         | much expense that can be seen by almost anyone on Earth, or
         | even Donald Trump whose every word and deed still makes
         | headline news and who is currently launching his own multimedia
         | platform.
         | 
         | Speaking of which, Trump and his followers have to be the least
         | censored "censored" political group in history. They're
         | constantly shouting from every social media platform and every
         | comment section about how censored they are. It's ridiculous.
        
           | nverno wrote:
           | Trump is banned from at least Facebook, Twitter, and Youtube-
           | so it's not like Trump supporters have zero basis for their
           | complaints. I think these platforms are generally considered
           | mainstream, so being forced out of them can be pretty
           | impactful censorship. How many platforms have Biden, Obama,
           | or any previous president been banned from? This censorship
           | of major political players is unprecedented in US history
           | afaik.
        
             | lotsofpulp wrote:
             | I presume Trump supporters are all about keeping the
             | government out of private business matters, so they do seem
             | to have zero basis for their complaints.
        
             | krapp wrote:
             | Trump wasn't banned for his political beliefs, he was
             | banned for violating the TOS. Trump's supporters
             | conveniently forget that he was allowed to run rampant
             | across social media for four years and given far more
             | leniency than anyone else, and of course they're pushing
             | the narrative that his ban was part of some vast leftist
             | conspiracy, but the reason he was banned and Biden, Obama
             | and others weren't is because Trump was raving like a
             | lunatic and seemed like he was about to start a civil war,
             | and Biden and Obama have done nothing of the sort.
             | 
             | And what has been the impact been of Trump's ban? He's
             | still perfectly capable of getting his message out. His
             | followers are perfectly willing to move to non-mainstream
             | sites like Parler and Gab, and they're still all over the
             | mainstream sites to boot. He's still the overwhelming
             | favorite for the GOP in 2024, and he's starting a social
             | media platform and possibly a streaming TV deal. Trump
             | simply not being President anymore has had a bigger
             | chilling effect than being deplatformed.
             | 
             | As always, the right's hatred of the left has led them to
             | overplay their hand. It's obvious to everyone that neither
             | Trump nor his supporters are oppressed, suppressed or
             | censored in any meaningful way, and certainly not to the
             | degree that they claim.
        
               | nverno wrote:
               | > It's obvious to everyone that neither Trump nor his
               | supporters are oppressed, suppressed or censored in any
               | meaningful way, and certainly not to the degree that they
               | claim.
               | 
               | Well, I'm not a Trump supporter, and have no horses in
               | the left/right race- however, it seems obvious to me that
               | there is censorship involved, given Trump is literally
               | banned from those platforms. Anecdata- the only time I
               | ever saw anything Trump had to say was on Twitter, and
               | since his banning, he might as well not exist in my own
               | infosphere. It's amazing to watch the pretzels people tie
               | themselves in trying to justify their ideology.
        
               | authed wrote:
               | I wish that mega corps would be required to be dumb pipes
               | like ISPs and let law enforcement make requests to take
               | stuff down.
        
         | nindalf wrote:
         | Use /r/Conservative then? It's not like you don't have options.
         | 
         | I really hope you're not going to complain "I tried commenting
         | on HN but I got downvoted"
        
           | authed wrote:
           | This is just one of thousands of examples...
           | 
           | https://old.reddit.com/r/moderatepolitics/ is surely better
           | then the one you mentioned (but it gets a lot less exposure).
        
         | micromacrofoot wrote:
         | ...use a different website then?
        
           | authed wrote:
           | Another example is Google heavily censoring search
           | results.... it is spreading everywhere. The top websites all
           | do it.
           | 
           | I do use Yandex and other websites when what I'm looking for
           | is hidden (but the list of websites that aren't censoring (or
           | are censoring different stuff) is shrinking).
        
             | micromacrofoot wrote:
             | the stuff they're censoring is like... white supremacy and
             | threats of violence?
        
       | brightball wrote:
       | TiVo took the commercial value out of everything except live
       | programming (mostly sports). Netflix took what was left.
       | 
       | It's the same reason the TV money start pouring into college
       | football contracts around that time.
        
       | dang wrote:
       | Discussed at the time:
       | 
       |  _Why TV Lost_ - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=501696 -
       | March 2009 (183 comments)
       | 
       |  _Why TV Lost (2009)_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2010956 - Dec 2010 (24
       | comments)
        
         | drc500free wrote:
         | Truly enjoying the "this is overblown" vs "this Justin.tv thing
         | is about to steamroll them" comments.
        
       | tenebrisalietum wrote:
       | TV really seems to be in its twilight. When I happen to chance to
       | watch it, I'm seeing basically the same 4 commercials and they
       | are all geared toward elderly populations. No one I know has
       | plain broadcast TV on in their home anymore.
       | 
       | I wonder at what point will it become unprofitable to operate a
       | TV station. In my location at least half of the OTA channels are
       | religious broadcasting stations. Will non-profits take them over
       | completely at some point?
        
         | gruez wrote:
         | > Will non-profits take them over completely at some point?
         | 
         | Can a given market really support multiple PBS-like stations?
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | Generally they can barely support one. Also while everyone
           | thinks of Nova and Masterpiece Theater a lot of local PBS
           | content is cheap talking head shows or at least it was
           | historically.
        
           | setpatchaddress wrote:
           | The religious channels are not PBS. "support" is not relevant
           | if the goal is propaganda (religious or political).
        
         | commandlinefan wrote:
         | HBO just announced a new season of "Sex and the City" on HBO
         | Max. It occurred to me that although I've never watched an
         | episode of the original series all the way through, I know all
         | the characters names and their basic story arcs - the show was
         | just part of popular culture when it was new and you couldn't
         | help but hear about it. There's nothing like that now. My kids
         | couldn't even tell you what shows are on - I doubt they could
         | even name the broadcast stations.
        
           | leephillips wrote:
           | Really? I don't have that impression--part of popular
           | culture. I tried to watch it once and lasted about four
           | minutes. I've heard people refer to it a few times, but know
           | nothing about the characters nor anything else. Contrast the
           | Simpsons, Seinfeld, and Friends, for examples (the last also
           | dreck that I never watched, but recognize as part of popular
           | culture).
        
           | mFixman wrote:
           | I don't know what you are talking about. I can tell you the
           | rough plot of Stranger Things, Squid Game, and Tiger King
           | despite never having seen a single episode of those series.
           | 
           | Shows are still part of popular culture, it's just streaming
           | instead of timed TV.
        
             | commandlinefan wrote:
             | Hm, ok I guess you've got a point there. I took the post as
             | being about "why TV Lost (to streaming services)", which I
             | consider Netflix to be one of. But you're right - those are
             | more or less "shows" the way "Friends"s was, more than
             | Logan Paul and PewDiePie and the other stuff I'm too old to
             | "get" that have replaced TV in popular culture.
        
           | thrower123 wrote:
           | When I watch football, I catch some ads for the current CBS
           | and Fox shows that are in the old money spots of weeknight
           | primetime. They look absolutely awful, and I've never met
           | anybody who has ever admitted to watching any of them. It
           | feels a little bit like the Rick and Morty interdimensional
           | cable episode.
        
             | colinmhayes wrote:
             | Those CBS shows just look so wildly awfully. Last year they
             | showed ads for the queen laitfa cop show or like the big
             | bang theory at the end of seemingly every single
             | commercial. I have to assume that only old people are
             | watching this stuff because there are just so many better
             | options.
        
           | jedberg wrote:
           | I lament this fact often. We no longer have a shared cultural
           | experience around media. Very occasionally something pops up
           | that everyone seems to know about, like Squid Game or The
           | Mandalorian. But it isn't like the old days, when anyone
           | would talked to saw the latest episode of I Love Lucy or
           | Friends or Seinfeld.
           | 
           | There are so many choices and it's so fractured that there
           | are no "big winners" anymore. But that's also a good thing,
           | because the big winners weren't winners because they were
           | good, they were winners because a network executive decided
           | they would be winners.
        
         | kikokikokiko wrote:
         | "In my location at least half of the OTA channels are religious
         | broadcasting stations. Will non-profits take them over
         | completely at some point?"
         | 
         | I don't know how the situation is in other countries, but down
         | here in Brazil, 2/3 of OTA channels have become religious
         | channels in the last 10-15 years.
         | 
         | And those channels are DEFINITELY FOR PROFIT. It's a disgusting
         | scam, ripping off the elderly, the poor and the overall dumbest
         | segments of the population. I have nothing against religion,
         | I'm not religious myself but I can see how it can be beneficial
         | for a lot of people. Having said that, the religious channels
         | as they exist in Brazil should just disappear, and the world
         | would be a better place. TV must die, it serves no useful
         | purpose anymore.
        
         | panzagl wrote:
         | I wonder how much it costs to run an OTA station, ignoring
         | content costs. I wonder if there's room for truly local
         | stations to emerge.
        
         | MisterBastahrd wrote:
         | Live sports is really carrying cable subscription packages at
         | this point, and I get the feeling that a lot of people who
         | watch it would consider it a bridge too far if the major sports
         | leagues decided to ever adopt a full pay per view model.
        
           | colinmhayes wrote:
           | I have to think live sports will move to streaming services
           | that package betting on the same screen and allow different
           | announcers. There's just so much money to be made off
           | controlling gambling.
        
           | jacobr1 wrote:
           | But the format of a cable subscription doesn't need to match
           | current form factor. For the past few seasons we've bough
           | Youtube TV during the NHL playoffs, and canceled after. I'd
           | just as happily pay NHL directly (probably a lower cost for
           | me, and higher margin for them) but their current offering
           | has blackouts for exactly the games I want to see. Another
           | example, we buy Disney+, but not their ESPN package. But we
           | would it they had coverage of the teams/leagues we care
           | about.
           | 
           | Really the blackout exclusions that leagues have that allow
           | them get higher cable revenue deals are the problem. But if
           | that dynamic shifts and the deals are exclusive, I would
           | expect the league-direct streaming services to become
           | competitive.
        
       | kfarr wrote:
       | > The TV networks already seem, grudgingly, to see where things
       | are going, and have responded by putting their stuff, grudgingly,
       | online. But they're still dragging their heels.
       | 
       | True, it took them about a decade for legacy TV networks to
       | finally start offering first-party streaming apps (Peacock, CBS
       | All Access, etc.)
        
       | iso1631 wrote:
       | Back in 1988, at the height of TV viewing, these scene on Star
       | Trek TNG seemed massively futuristic. Imagine TV ending by 2040
       | 
       | DATA: Is there something wrong?
       | 
       | SONNY: Wrong? Only that your computer here fixed about the best
       | martini I have ever had. I just might get to like this place.
       | Let's see if the Braves are on. How do you turn on this teevee?
       | 
       | RIKER: TV?
       | 
       | SONNY: Yeah, the boob tube. I'd like to see how the Braves are
       | doing after all this time. Probably still finding ways to lose.
       | 
       | DATA: I believe he means television, sir. That particular form of
       | entertainment did not last much beyond the year two thousand
       | forty.
       | 
       | Yet here we are, 24 years on, with just 18 years to go to that
       | 2040 date, and it looks like it may well work out about right -
       | as in TV as a passive viewing habit (rather than actively seeking
       | out an episode of the Mandalorian or Tom Scott or what-have-you)
        
         | rhacker wrote:
         | I sometimes wonder if someone from the future really did come
         | back to write some of those shows.
         | 
         | Look what was predicted for 2024 from DS9 in 1995:
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Past_Tense_(Star_Trek:_Deep_Sp...
         | 
         | "Sanctuary Districts" sounds like "Sanctuary City" - very
         | bizarre naming. Not to mention the homelessness situation has
         | started exploding lately.
        
           | Izkata wrote:
           | 2063 is gonna be a crazy year ;)
        
         | rhino369 wrote:
         | Seems like Millenials and GenXer still watch a lot of TV, its
         | just on a steaming service instead of cable, and much of it is
         | pretty damn passive.
         | 
         | Not sure how GenZ engages, I hear more twitch/youtube/tiktok,
         | but I think they still view a lot of TV shows too.
        
           | InitialLastName wrote:
           | > much of it is pretty damn passive.
           | 
           | How could it possibly be more passive than "I just leave my
           | TV on Fox News/MSNBC/CNN until I'm outraged about the right
           | things"?
        
         | jandrese wrote:
         | To be fair in the Star Trek universe there was a lot of global
         | thermonuclear war going on so it makes sense that broadcast TV
         | would die out as the spectrum became too noisy to effectively
         | transmit signal.
        
         | munchler wrote:
         | That's an interesting scene, but it's not a passive viewing
         | scenario. I do agree that passively turning on the TV just to
         | see what's on is virtually extinct.
         | 
         | As a side note, it seems very unlikely that a baseball team
         | named the "Braves" will exist in the far future, even if
         | baseball itself is still played in some form.
        
       | Ensorceled wrote:
       | Interesting the focus on piracy in this article. TV was losing it
       | when their customers started needing a DVR to watch their
       | favourite shows because of counter programming and to skip the 18
       | minutes of advertising per hour of TV. Now everyone has an
       | average of two of Netflix/Prime/etc. because it's just
       | eliminating the DVR and all the headaches involved and just
       | getting the shows you want when you want them.
       | 
       | TV is still around and will be for a while yet, but it continues
       | to fade.
        
         | denton-scratch wrote:
         | > 18 minutes of advertising per hour of TV.
         | 
         | Hmmm. That would be nice.
         | 
         | I watched a one-hour show last night (with a 6-minute ad-break)
         | that rolled titles at the 40-minute point. There followed a
         | 10-minute ad-break, and 10 minutes of trailers. All of the ads
         | were low-grade - hearing aids, wills and equity-release, and
         | charity donation pitches.
        
           | iso1631 wrote:
           | > I watched a one-hour show last night
           | 
           | Why?
           | 
           | In the 80s there wasn't much choice, but today you can watch
           | pretty much whatever you want when you want with no adverts,
           | no catering for the lowest common denominator, and at least
           | in the UK TV viewing has dropped so much that it's no longer
           | needed to be social at work the next day (in the 80s everyone
           | cared who shot dirty den or whatever in eastenders, as pretty
           | much half the country watched it. Not so now)
        
             | denton-scratch wrote:
             | * I don't work (retired)
             | 
             | * I was in the mood for a Twilight Zone episode
             | 
             | * I wasn't in the mood for that when I scheduled my
             | recordings.
             | 
             | I normally only watch news bulletins live. I don't have a
             | feed of $EVERYTHING; I have Freesat and a bunch of basic
             | Sky channels, with catchup services such as iPlayer. I
             | cancelled Netflix.
             | 
             | I'd subscribe to a service that offered $EVERYTHING, but it
             | doesn't exist.
        
         | scoopertrooper wrote:
         | > 18 minutes of advertising per hour of TV.
         | 
         | It's a feedback loop. Audiences increasingly switch to
         | streaming, so companies are willing to pay less per a second of
         | advertising. TV stations increase the amount of time dedicated
         | to advertising to compensate, which drives more of the audience
         | into streaming.
        
           | Kranar wrote:
           | This doesn't jive with how pricing typically works. There is
           | no such feedback loop, at least not one that is as simple as
           | you're making it out to be.
           | 
           | Consider that your feedback loop implies a kind of symmetry
           | by which TV stations could presumably also increase revenue
           | by decreasing ads and attracting viewers in the process.
           | 
           | If TV stations have good reason to believe that increasing
           | the amount of time dedicated to ads would increase revenue,
           | they would have already done so a long time ago regardless of
           | streaming.
           | 
           | My suspicion is that TV is increasing ads because people are
           | moving to streaming without any kind of feedback loop
           | involved. Those who are left willing to watch TV will do so
           | regardless of increased advertisements. It's not that ads are
           | pushing people to streaming creating some kind of feedback
           | loop, it's that people are simply moving to streaming because
           | it's a better product across a multitude of factors and those
           | who are stuck with TV will continue to be stuck with it, ads
           | or no ads.
        
           | dreamcompiler wrote:
           | I don't know if it's my imagination but I've noticed this
           | with FM radio too. Sometimes I'll turn on the radio in the
           | car because there's a local station that plays music I like,
           | but it's become unlistenable because the ad:music ratio is
           | about 50% now. And the ads seem to be mostly for things
           | boomers might buy (like hearing aids, luxury cars, and blood
           | pressure medicine), because of course everybody younger never
           | listens to the radio.
           | 
           | FM radio is dead; it just doesn't know it yet.
        
             | Jcampuzano2 wrote:
             | A number of times the past few years I have tried turning
             | on the FM radio in my car just for old times sake, or if my
             | phone is dead or something. A vast majority of the time, I
             | will flip through all 6 programmed channels on my radio and
             | every single one is on ad-break.
             | 
             | So I decide to sit on one that I'll just wait through...
             | but then I realize I've sat there for what feels like 5+
             | minutes (longer than one average song) still being
             | bombarded with ads and justifyingly so decide that radio is
             | no longer for me, and so off it goes for another year.
        
             | Spooky23 wrote:
             | AM radio is even worse. It's descent into fringe talk radio
             | turned the ad side of the business into prostate pills and
             | ads that are probably fake.
             | 
             | Radio used to mint money. I think what you're seeing is the
             | decline in the business led to consolidation, and now they
             | are milking whatever they can get until they can sell the
             | spectrum to someone.
        
             | rhino369 wrote:
             | FM radio probably knows it, but what are they going to do?
             | Nobody is going to start listening if they reduced ads.
             | Best course to just squeeze every last dime out of the
             | current listeners until you can't turn a profit anymore.
        
             | kaftoy wrote:
             | I still feel more connected to the world when I tune into
             | some FM station than when I am listening to some Spotify
             | playlist. Same with TV: even if I watch movies or series on
             | streaming services, I still watch the news almost every day
             | at 7PM and, during the day I do switch in and out some
             | national news TV network. Both the TV and FM, even if
             | flooded by ads, still make me feel connected to the world,
             | while streaming services kind of put me in a bubble. Maybe
             | it's worth also noting that in my country(EU member state)
             | the ratio of ads to real program is limited and controlled
             | by government. So stations cannot abuse it and take it to
             | 50/50, the ads are limited to 20% duration (12 minutes
             | every hour).
             | 
             | TV and FM ads are innocent children compared to the
             | shameless promotions in youtube videos, for example, so
             | I've learned to tolerate them, laugh at some of the worst
             | ones, or just ignore/change station when I am not in the
             | mood. TV is not dying in my house nor the radio in my car.
        
           | qnsi wrote:
           | You should really read some introduction to economics to get
           | a good mental model of how those things work.
           | 
           | Why wouldnt TV companies do this in the past when TV was in
           | the prime? Just increase number of ads and get more money.
           | Clearly there is some limit as to how many ads to show
           | because I dont believe they want to decrease the viewership
           | numbers
        
             | scoopertrooper wrote:
             | I have an advanced degree in economics, but okay :)
             | 
             | How would you explain the increase in ads then? If there is
             | a clearly understood equilibrium ad time, why has ad time
             | increased? Have audiences become more accepting of ads?
             | Have ads become more entertaining?
             | 
             | I'd say the more likely explanation is that there is a lag
             | between audience loss and advertiser realisation of
             | audience loss. TV stations manage to meet market growth
             | expectations by exploiting this and pumping out overvalued
             | ads to non-existent people. Over time, they've become
             | increasingly reliant on this strategy to keep their heads
             | above water as advertisers catch up to reality.
             | 
             | It can't go on forever, so they've now belatedly started
             | their own streaming services to try and keep up.
        
               | bee_rider wrote:
               | I haven't studied economics at all, but if you could get
               | your academic comrades to stop offering intro courses as
               | one-and-done gen-eds, I bet we'd drastically improve the
               | quality of online armchair economic analyses.
        
               | pomian wrote:
               | I think we have seen the same drama in newspapers. More
               | ads. Even whole cover page, is an advertisement. Reduced
               | readership, and unlikely to attract more due to high
               | advertising volume.
        
               | willcipriano wrote:
               | I'm a exec, I'm not that creative.
               | 
               | I could work real hard and try to provide more value to
               | consumers and attract more customers, but as I said
               | that's hard work and I'm not very creative so it may not
               | even pan out.
               | 
               | I could also say, "Increase advertising by 5%!" and in
               | the short term gain the same rewards as the other option,
               | maybe even more. Then put that success story on my resume
               | and move on.
               | 
               | At some point shareholders decided they wanted the second
               | option. They all move on quickly as well.
        
               | johncessna wrote:
               | > How would you explain the increase in ads then? If
               | there is a clearly understood equilibrium ad time, why
               | has ad time increased? Have audiences become more
               | accepting of ads? Have ads become more entertaining?
               | 
               | It seems possible to me that folks who are still watching
               | tv are more accepting of ads, whereas the folks who
               | aren't/weren't moved to something else.
        
               | scoopertrooper wrote:
               | That'd slow the decrease in overall viewership for sure,
               | old folks homes need to put something on during the day.
               | But the key demographic (18-54 year olds) are likely less
               | ad tolerant, as channels keep upping the ante on ad time
               | they'll lose their most lucrative audience members.
        
             | dmurray wrote:
             | This is harsh. GP's theory doesn't clash with traditional
             | economics.
             | 
             | One reasonable answer to your question: TV companies didn't
             | increase the number of ads because consumers would switch
             | to a channel with fewer ads. In fact, they showed just
             | enough ads to break even, as the marginal ad revenue per
             | hour tended towards the cost of producing an hour of
             | television (because of the perfectly competitive TV market
             | you posit). Now the cost has stayed the same, but the
             | number of eyeballs has dropped, so TV networks need to show
             | more ads or go out of business.
        
             | jedberg wrote:
             | TV has always had competition. With anything else you do in
             | your free time. When it started it competed with radio.
             | Later it competed with what you had on the VCR. Then
             | gaming. Then streaming. They always had to worry about
             | losing people to other activities.
             | 
             | And as such, they couldn't just run 25 minutes of ads and 5
             | minutes of show, because people wouldn't watch.
             | 
             | There are more ads now because the people who are left on
             | linear TV are the people who are most die hard about
             | watching it and will take more abuse, or simply don't have
             | any idea what to do with their free time instead.
        
             | wvenable wrote:
             | If there are a limited number of ad spots, the scarcity
             | makes those spots more expensive. And, as you said, the
             | number of ads has a negative effect on viewership which
             | would make those ad spots less valuable as well.
             | 
             | That was past. Now that viewership is declining and
             | alternative mass advertising opportunities are available
             | what we're seeing is the death spiral. There's no natural
             | scarcity making TV ad spots more valuable. Viewership is in
             | decline. The only way to even maintain income levels is to
             | increase the number of ads. If there is a formula on the
             | perfect amount of ads, the inputs to that formula have
             | changed.
        
         | athenot wrote:
         | > and to skip the 18 minutes of advertising per hour of TV
         | 
         | And now Instagram shows 1 ad every 3 posts/stories, which is
         | getting closer to the ratio on TV.
        
           | munk-a wrote:
           | There's a reason I don't use instagram - but also a reason I
           | am forever thankful to my pi-hole.
        
         | efitz wrote:
         | You nailed it. From the footnotes in the article:
         | 
         | "A significant component of piracy is simply that it offers a
         | better user experience."
         | 
         | The biggest problem, IMO, with copyright in the current age is
         | that the copyright holders want to adopt business models
         | premised on controlling me and my experience. I'm not reluctant
         | to paying for content, but if you make the experience suck I
         | will work around you.
        
           | verelo wrote:
           | This, 100% this, all the time, every day.
           | 
           | Stop making buying your content so hard, impossible, or
           | generally shit that it's easier to get illegally.
        
           | munk-a wrote:
           | This is a large part, from my observation at least, of the
           | reason why Game of Thrones was so insanely pirated. If you
           | can recall a few years prior another nerd sensation was
           | sweeping the country (Lost) - but by the time GoT came around
           | Netflix and other streaming services were really coming into
           | prominence. HBO Go in that era refused to offer you a la
           | carte access - instead requiring you to have an account with
           | a major cable company to gain the privilege to pay for
           | access. I think the contrast is pretty clear because now
           | we've got a plethora of independent streaming services with
           | their own costs (like Dropout and Nebula) that don't seem to
           | be having trouble attracting customers - even if it's just
           | for a single series or creator (i.e. Dimension 20).
           | 
           | The ease of access is a key point for me. I am morally
           | opposed to piracy under normal circumstances - but if you're
           | levying a price that I need to pay with my time or sanity I'm
           | going to table flip and go back to the dark side (or, more
           | likely in the modern day, just not watch your crap since
           | there's plenty of stuff out there).
        
             | heurisko wrote:
             | I agree. For the last series of GoT I bought a month pass
             | from a streaming service in the UK--"Now TV" or something--
             | to watch it. It was a reasonable price, so I think they
             | were successful there.
             | 
             | On the other hand, the last series was garbage.
        
         | a4isms wrote:
         | A bajillion years ago in HN time, Joel Spolsky wrote about the
         | then-fashionable peer-to-peer frenzy, that everyone was getting
         | Napster wrong: Nobody cared about peer-to-peer, everyone cared
         | about:
         | 
         | "You can type the name of a song and listen to it right away."
         | 
         | My n=1 anecdote: Soon thereafter, I was typing the name of a
         | song into iTunes, buying it for CAD 1.29, and listening to it
         | right away. I spent hundreds of dollars a year on the iTunes
         | Music Store.
         | 
         | It wasn't peer-to-peer that some of us liked, it was making the
         | experience as frictionless as possible. Rightsholders hate
         | that, but they lose this argument every damn time. The winners
         | in content are always those who make it easy.
         | 
         | p.s. In the 1950s, TV was the disruptive low-friction
         | experience. You could turn on the set and watch Lucy and Desi
         | right away, without buying tickets, getting dressed, and going
         | to a theatre!
        
           | thinkingkong wrote:
           | I think this is also what makes Amazon so succesful. Their
           | primary product is convenience. Not "stuff".
        
             | a4isms wrote:
             | With Prime, you can type the name of a product and get it
             | right away.*
             | 
             | ------
             | 
             | * For sufficiently next-day values of "right away."
        
         | bartread wrote:
         | > counter programming and to skip the 18 minutes of advertising
         | per hour of TV.
         | 
         | ^^^This.
         | 
         | I basically can't tolerate watching anything on ITV, Sky, or
         | other commercial TV in the UK nowadays, nor for well over a
         | decade, due to the frequency and quantity of ads. I also
         | strongly object to what I presume is audio compression applied
         | to ads to make them louder than surrounding scheduled
         | programming.
         | 
         | And counter programming is an obnoxious practice.
         | 
         | Let's face it: lots of people have always wanted to watch what
         | they want when they want to. Lots of people don't want to
         | arrange their lives around the TV schedule. Good riddance to
         | it.
        
           | stickydink wrote:
           | If it helps (not that ITV has anything _worth_ watching), I
           | think TV stations recognize this - both ITV and Channel 4
           | have ad-free on demand options for a few pounds a month
        
             | dazc wrote:
             | Ironically, the ad-free version of C4 still has
             | 'promotional messages' on some shows.
        
           | Kye wrote:
           | A lot of ad volume problems come from failure to normalize
           | audio between what the studio distributes and what the
           | advertiser distributes. Failure to fix something can be
           | innocent or malicious: someone high up can simply not
           | prioritize it, and no one could honestly say it's to serve
           | advertisers without an admission. Some of it is innocent,
           | some isn't. Laws are passed to regulate it, but they find
           | ways past it.
        
             | denton-scratch wrote:
             | They use psycho-acoustics. It's not actually louder, in the
             | sense of carrying more acoustic energy overall; but the
             | sound-engineer emphasises those parts that we perceive as
             | "loud". Regulators are pwned, and refuse to act.
             | 
             | Movie sound-engineers seem to have started doing the same.
             | 
             | I really don't understand why annoying ads have't become
             | extinct, in accordance with the Darwin principle.
             | 
             | [Edit] And advertisers hire loud, shouty actors to present
             | their ads; it's almost as if they were challenging us to
             | change channel or stick in a DVD.
        
               | GeorgeTirebiter wrote:
               | Not an advertisement, and I have no other relationship
               | except as a satisfied customer: Consider getting a TV
               | Speaker from ZVOX that has the 'output leveling' feature.
               | It really works, and keeps those of us who are
               | 'aural'-sensitive from being whacked on the side of the
               | head by crazy audio. Also works to fix bad Movie mixes
               | (avengers... black widow...). This seems to be the
               | cheapest unit with the 'Output Leveling' feature: https:/
               | /zvox.com/collections/accuvoice/products/av100-accuvo...
        
               | munk-a wrote:
               | > I really don't understand why annoying ads have't
               | become extinct, in accordance with the Darwin principle.
               | 
               | Unfortunately it's because of the Darwin principle. While
               | I hate them to death annoying stuff is more memorable
               | than pleasant stuff - you can sit on a beach all day and
               | get bitten by a mosquito at one point, you're definitely
               | going to remember the mosquito more than hours of
               | pleasant relaxation. Annoying loud crap gets our
               | attention, I think, in part, because things that are
               | annoying and loud are dangerous (both in the modern and
               | historically) so we're trained to pay more attention to
               | them. I wish it wasn't true but Advertising gains
               | effectiveness from obnoxiousness - like if a marketing
               | company could make your house smell like rotten fish
               | every time they were blasting information about their
               | insurance you'd sure as hell remember their name.
        
             | Legion wrote:
             | > A lot of ad volume problems come from failure to
             | normalize audio between what the studio distributes and
             | what the advertiser distributes.
             | 
             | Weird how this supposed lack of normalization never seems
             | to result in overly quiet commercials...
        
               | a9h74j wrote:
               | Like hospital billing errors always being in favor of the
               | hospital.
        
           | cmiles74 wrote:
           | When I bought a DVR, some cable networks were starting to
           | speed up scenes of shows in order to fit in all of
           | commercials.[0] I think this started in the late 90's but
           | that's just my personal recollection. I did spot a Reddit
           | thread pointing out this issue seven years ago. I suspect
           | some scenes are cut from syndicated shows for the same
           | reason.
           | 
           | [0]: https://arstechnica.com/information-
           | technology/2015/02/cable...
           | 
           | [1]: https://www.reddit.com/r/television/comments/2vwgk9/tbs_
           | spee...
        
             | colechristensen wrote:
             | Oh yes this is pretty well known and pretty easy to know,
             | just count the minutes of the show and minutes of ads...
             | the show is shorter in syndication.
             | 
             | I don't remember where but I'm pretty sure I've heard show
             | runners talking about it on DVD commentaries.
        
           | rhacker wrote:
           | We had 60 years of TV getting to that 18 minute mark per 1
           | hour show.
           | 
           | I wonder how many minutes of advertising or signups will be
           | involved after 60 years of internet.
           | 
           | I can imagine a 20 years from now - to continue watching
           | Netflix Original Series "Idiocracy Now: Season 2 Episode 7 -
           | Jim invents plastic soil mulch" sign up for this exclusive
           | opportunity to get a new AI robot dog....
        
             | lapetitejort wrote:
             | I'm honestly pretty hopeful about ads in the streaming era.
             | Netlfix has been streaming since 2007, streaming original
             | shows since 2013, and aside from some admittedly obnoxious
             | ad placements in some shows (Coke in Stranger Things S3),
             | they've resisted the urge to ad up. Some services are
             | dabbling with ad-tier subscriptions, which is worrisome.
        
               | Ntrails wrote:
               | Netflix autoplays ads whenever you load it up or are
               | scrolling around to find something to watch
               | 
               | Prime returns things you cannot watch without paying in
               | its search
               | 
               | It forces you to watch ads before it starts the show
               | 
               |  _They 've all barely gotten started, I assure you_
        
               | enkid wrote:
               | You can select free to me when browsing amazon to only
               | see things that don't charge you to watch it, at least on
               | the ui on my phone.
        
           | sergiotapia wrote:
           | My kids are basically growing up with Stremio and Youtube on
           | desktop (with adblock). I imagine most children of techies
           | are the same.
        
             | lotsofpulp wrote:
             | My kids would sooner turn something off than sit through an
             | ad.
        
               | daanlo wrote:
               | My kids (4 & 6) saw real ads on TV for the first time in
               | their lifes' about a week ago. Otherwise they had always
               | just watched netflix. They watched disney channel on TV
               | and were mesmerized by all the ads for toys. ,,Oh I want
               | this one", ,,and this one", ,,dad can we buy that one?".
               | Was bizarre to see that for them this was somehow really
               | special.
        
             | temp8964 wrote:
             | I don't make it easy for kids to skip ads. Ads is a way to
             | stop them from watching for too long.
        
       | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
       | The question of what TV actually is seems rather central to the
       | issue of whether it "lost" or not, and seems unanswered in TFA.
       | 
       | Is it a broadcast medium with a fairly small number of networks?
       | 
       | Is it a non-broadcast medium with only 1 or 2 service providers
       | in a given neighborhood/area?
       | 
       | Is it a particular format for story-telling, and if so, what is
       | that format?
       | 
       | I am guessing there are other fundamental "what is it?" style
       | questions that I'm not thinking of here.
        
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