[HN Gopher] Dam the Bering Strait, use nuclear-powered propeller...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Dam the Bering Strait, use nuclear-powered propellers to melt poles
       (2020)
        
       Author : aww_dang
       Score  : 83 points
       Date   : 2021-11-29 11:46 UTC (11 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (weathermodificationhistory.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (weathermodificationhistory.com)
        
       | npunt wrote:
       | Crazy fact: the Bering Strait is only 100 to 165 feet deep
       | (~45m).
       | 
       | 45m x 88km length = 4,000,000 m^2 times whatever thickness.
       | 
       | Makes sense the strait is shallow given the whole prehistoric
       | migration, but in my mind it was much deeper, probably because of
       | its proximity to the Pacific (max 30k+ ft) and the Bering Sea
       | (max 12k ft).
        
       | iSnow wrote:
       | Makes me envious, it must have been great living at a time where
       | progress was good and megalomanic projects were seriously
       | discussed. Now, everyone is so cynical about everything.
        
         | stinos wrote:
         | Cynical, or realistic because everyone has seen what the
         | consequences of such projects can be?
         | 
         | Progress can still be good, just like it never was if it also
         | means there are severe downsides and they are just ignored for
         | the sake of progress.
        
           | LiquidSky wrote:
           | Exactly. If anything, the opposite of what the parent says
           | seems to be true: as each new shiny technology or development
           | pops up (e.g., social media or the crypto space) there is an
           | explosion of utopian idealism that is only later dampered
           | when the reality of the downsides sink in. It would be a nice
           | of change of pace if we actually seriously considered the
           | potential downsides of the new cool thing (say, the privacy
           | implications of the social media explosion before universal
           | use).
        
             | SuoDuanDao wrote:
             | Societies do that to a greater or lesser degree. The Amish
             | are so famous for it that the neologism 'amistics' has been
             | proposed to refer to a society's choices around adopting
             | technology that is technically feasible.
             | 
             | What I think many people are lamenting is that their own
             | society is not optimistic enough about novel technology for
             | their liking. Given that many of the people on Hacker News
             | are near the vanguard for technological innovation by
             | global standards it would seem there's a desire for more
             | permissive amistics than currently exist. If anyone knows
             | where those kinds of subcultures could be found I'd be
             | interested in knowing about it.
        
           | koheripbal wrote:
           | The Suez Canal? The Panama canal? The various locks and dams
           | that save hundreds of thousands of lives by preventing mass
           | floodings, generate clean power, and allow deep continental
           | shipping?
           | 
           | Nothing is perfect, but only the most delusional think these
           | projects were not MAJOR improvements for humanity.
        
             | dr_dshiv wrote:
             | Hoover dam & Central Valley aqueducts come to mind...
        
         | user-the-name wrote:
         | Do you have any idea the insane amount of damage that was done
         | in that period? That we are still paying the price for?
        
         | h2odragon wrote:
         | Absolutely! I've got a project to correct the Earth's axial
         | tilt, and banish Winter forever to the benighted polar lands
         | where it can be enjoyed by those who want it, without troubling
         | the rest of us who have the sense to live in actually habitable
         | climates. You would not _believe_ the trouble I 've had
         | submitting grant applications.
         | 
         | The main problem is that the planet when viewed as a whole is
         | rather squishy. We're gonna have to apply a lot of energy with
         | extraordinary gentleness somehow. Still working on that part.
        
           | m4rtink wrote:
           | Please double check your calculations this time, to avoid
           | another faux-pas like the first attempt back in 1891.
        
         | jzymbaluk wrote:
         | It is extraordinary how public health officials in the US were
         | able to just add Fluoride to water and iodine to salt. If that
         | were being proposed today, people would throw such a huge fit.
         | We can't even build bike lanes on roads today without having
         | meetings about it for a decade
        
           | mbg721 wrote:
           | They were added at a time when deadly diseases were a
           | ubiquitous fact of life--imagine having ten kids and
           | expecting four of them to die. Now that that isn't something
           | people have to think about, we are rightly suspicious of the
           | motivations of health bureaucrats.
        
             | cmrdporcupine wrote:
             | Well this is the thing I find baffling about the most
             | intense of the COVID vaccine and lockdown skeptics who go
             | on about "new world order" type conspiracies.
             | 
             | We are coming out of one of the most lenient -- in terms of
             | public health administration -- periods in the modern era.
             | The mental health system up until the 70s, 80s, was
             | frequently used to just "commit" people (even unruly
             | "hysteric" housewives) without regard to liberty at all.
             | Vaccination campaigns were done on a huge scale, and
             | rationing was a part of life for many people in the west
             | not just during the war but in post-war periods as well.
             | 
             | [Some] people may have lost sight of what it truly means to
             | live in an (even mild) emergency and what kinds of
             | decisions we need to make as a _collective_ to solve
             | certain problems.
        
               | mbg721 wrote:
               | If you're going to look at it that way, then we have a
               | mostly-white middle-class who is experiencing for the
               | very first time the government wielded against it as a
               | weapon. (They are less than thrilled.)
               | 
               | But I don't think that's exactly what's going on; I think
               | it's a clumsy attempt at a rehash of Lyndon Johnson-Great
               | Society-style governance. And it's obviously not working,
               | so there's a rush to find the most plausible people to
               | blame.
        
           | kleton wrote:
           | About every 25 years, the residents of Portland vote against
           | fluoridation of the municipal water.
        
             | InitialLastName wrote:
             | Do they vote for it in the intervening 24 years, or is that
             | just how often it comes up?
        
         | ineedasername wrote:
         | I think I'd prefer cynical skepticism to megalomaniac. It may
         | be a bit stifling at times, but it's also the result of sort of
         | collectively rising a little bit above societal Dunning Kruger.
         | We now realize that things are a lot more complex and that the
         | balance in chaotic systems can be a lot more precarious and
         | fragile.
         | 
         | It might be healthy for any large project to have a well
         | informed skeptic in the room telling people it won't work. That
         | person could be wrong, but figuring out how to deal with their
         | projected outcomes can be the difference between success and
         | failure. Or outright disaster.
        
           | rootusrootus wrote:
           | > well informed skeptic
           | 
           | Ah, I found the problem. We have the skeptic, and they
           | effectively stop major projects dead in their tracks, but
           | rarely are they well-informed.
        
             | ineedasername wrote:
             | Yes, that's why I made that stipulation. There are some
             | people that are simply resistant to any change. That can be
             | almost as useful if they're nudged into giving their
             | reasons, but only if they're not in a leadership/decision-
             | making position.
             | 
             | An uninformed naysayer with decision making authority will
             | kill just about any initiative.
        
         | jbay808 wrote:
         | I sometimes wonder if it was an effect of the war. Seeing all
         | the normal rules and power structures of society suddenly
         | vanish, to the point that you can blow a hole in a 1000-year-
         | old cathedral just by saying to your specialist "I need a door
         | here, can you make it happen?", must have had a certain impact
         | on how people think.
        
           | koheripbal wrote:
           | I believe it's a consequence of the Cold War and the
           | disinformation campaign that the Soviets and now the Russians
           | engage in.
           | 
           | It takes only a small number of operatives to organize grass
           | roots groups that spread hate, cynicism, and division. It's
           | easy to take amplify and escalate nascent conflict to ensure
           | that discourse fails and that conflicts flare up
        
             | RankingMember wrote:
             | I think the Vietnam war played a particularly strong role
             | in damaging trust in government in the U.S., and we've
             | never really come back from that.
             | 
             | https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/05/17/public-
             | trust...
        
               | bserge wrote:
               | Reading this chain, I'm reminded how we wonder, believe
               | and think way more than _do_.
        
             | StanislavPetrov wrote:
             | >I believe it's a consequence of the Cold War and the
             | disinformation campaign that the Soviets and now the
             | Russians engage in.
             | 
             | The Russians, the US government, the Chinese government,
             | the British government, and most other governments around
             | the world.
             | 
             | >It takes only a small number of operatives to organize
             | grass roots groups that spread hate, cynicism, and
             | division. It's easy to take amplify and escalate nascent
             | conflict to ensure that discourse fails and that conflicts
             | flare up
             | 
             | That's true. And when you have a huge number of operatives,
             | like the CIA, it's even easier to escalate nascent
             | conflict. Read up on Conintelpro and watch the Church
             | Committee hearings to get an inkling of what we were (and
             | are) engaged in on a global scale.
        
         | flohofwoe wrote:
         | That sort of 'progress' made the Aral Sea vanish, I guess
         | that's why people got a bit jaded about such large scale
         | projects.
         | 
         | Also see the "Northern River Reversal" project which thankfully
         | was abandondend eventually:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_river_reversal
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | > _why people got a bit jaded about such large scale
           | projects_
           | 
           | China seems to be doing fine with large-scale projects.
           | People didn't get jaded. Certain cultures did.
        
             | flohofwoe wrote:
             | Well people _should_ better get jaded (and angry) about
             | destruction of the environment their children will need to
             | live in.
        
         | FpUser wrote:
         | Well, Google and Amazon are megalomaniac in progress. I doubt
         | one has to be cynical to be disgusted by where all of this
         | going. But yeah people had dreams and those were exciting at
         | the time (when one did not know all the consequences of
         | course).
        
       | karmakaze wrote:
       | Sounds like a jr/software engineer's proposal without considering
       | 2nd order effects. These are not as uncommon as you would hope.
        
         | ineedasername wrote:
         | Even in a senior role I've learned enough to ask "tell my why
         | this is a bad idea" to ensure I get suitable feedback without
         | people just shrugging their shoulders and saying "well, if he
         | insists..."
        
           | karmakaze wrote:
           | Agreed, same. (I actually had 'software' in parens and
           | switched it for 'jr/')
        
       | hardlianotion wrote:
       | I have long wanted to dam up the Straits of Gibraltar and recover
       | the initial conditions described in Julian May's Many Coloured^*
       | Land.
       | 
       | * Cultural baggage.
        
         | teddyh wrote:
         | https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/1190:_Time
        
           | hardlianotion wrote:
           | That's amazing!
        
         | AlbertCory wrote:
         | If you've ever visited the Vasa [1] in Stockholm, you know that
         | wooden ship was fairly well preserved after 300 years, because
         | the Baltic is less salty than the ocean. Its connectivity with
         | the North Sea is pretty limited, so over time that's what
         | happened.
         | 
         | So, we don't have to totally _dry up_ the Med; just turn it
         | into an almost-fresh-water lake! Randall, calculate how many
         | thousands or millions of years that would take.
         | 
         | [1] https://www.vasamuseet.se/en
        
           | m4rtink wrote:
           | I think the idea is that you let in water from rivers and
           | possibly also from the Atlantic and possibly even the Red
           | Sea, in a controlled manner, have it run via turbines and
           | keep the actual water level low via evaporation to keep the
           | whole scheme working.
           | 
           | This will eventually result in salt and minerals from the
           | water concentrating in whats left of Mediterranean - so
           | basically the exact opposite effect.
        
             | AlbertCory wrote:
             | I wasn't being serious, of course, but since you brought it
             | up: why IS the Baltic less salty?
        
       | r3trohack3r wrote:
       | See also: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/15/330a
       | 
       | In the U.S., as a non-government organization, if you'd like to
       | modify the weather you need to fill out the NOAA form 17-4(a).
       | 
       | All weather modification projects that have been filed can be
       | found here: https://www.library.noaa.gov/Collections/Digital-
       | Collections...
        
         | ricksunny wrote:
         | Interesting, and this will sound very off-topic, but it's
         | actually completely connected - there are any number of
         | technical domains in which, if a given project is taken to an
         | extreme in one particular circumstance or another, can feed
         | back and cause havoc on many who aren't even involved with the
         | project, or who have the slightest clue about it and therefore
         | didn't have agency to internalize the risks involved. I'm going
         | to list in no particular order:
         | 
         | * tetraethyl lead under Thomas Midgley Jr. and Charles
         | Kettering
         | 
         | * chlorofluorocarbons (also Midgely and Kettering)
         | 
         | * Chernobyl (I would include other nuclear disasters in this
         | bullet as well)
         | 
         | * [90% probability] 1977 Russian flu pandemic
         | 
         | * a [50%] probability research-related leak for the current
         | pandemic (simply calling this 50% for this post's purposes
         | because nobody knows and probabilities are difficult to weigh
         | absent more data)
         | 
         | They all involve insufficient, blinkered, or mis- or overly-
         | incentivized oversight of the activities at hand. At some
         | level, they all employ an attitude of "prove the work is likely
         | to cause harm" rather than "prove the work carries acceptable
         | level of risk".
         | 
         | I don't necessarily know how to solve this without causing
         | scientific and technical progress to slow to a crawl. But I
         | think that stakeholder incentives to the green-lighting of any
         | given project with a remotely global scope, and committees who
         | could intervene to stop it in case of overwhelming safety
         | concerns, should be mapped out in excruciating detail to ensure
         | there isn't the faintest of COI (conflict of interest) that
         | could influence decision-making however subtly.
         | 
         | So circling back to the parent comment, the idea that one can
         | modify weather, presumably confined locally or temporally,
         | seems innocuous enough - - it would be impossible for that to
         | have global-scale consequences, right? Fact is, I really don't
         | know, and this article is a good example of such an artificial
         | climate-shifting project. What I would want to be assured of as
         | a member of the public, though, is that the oversight for
         | considering such a project wouldn't unduly benefit in some way
         | - financially, career status, family nepotism, etc. that could
         | cloud sober judgement on whether/how the project should be
         | allowed to proceed.
         | 
         | To first-order, I'd like to see a problem-domain-agnostic
         | approach to ensuring the human incentives across all aspects of
         | approval couldn't possibly be operating out of the wrong place.
         | I don't want to have to be able to understand the underlying
         | respective technologies involved to feel assured that the risk-
         | to-public-benefit reward trade-off has been undertaken through
         | an irreproachably sober lens.
        
           | spullara wrote:
           | All we need is some organization to stop things like the LHC
           | because people think it may end the world.
           | 
           | http://content.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1838947,0.
           | ..
        
             | noduerme wrote:
             | Thankfully, the LHC still hasn't ended our timeline yet,
             | thanks to reverse causality. http://content.time.com/time/h
             | ealth/article/0,8599,1937370,0...
        
           | bee_rider wrote:
           | There is little value to slapping numbers on to probabilities
           | that haven't been calculated, why not just say "seemingly
           | likely" and "unknown probability" instead of "90%" and "50%,
           | with an explanation that it isn't really 50%."
        
             | medstrom wrote:
             | You should read about the CIA's study about words of
             | estimative probability :
             | https://waf.cs.illinois.edu/visualizations/Perception-of-
             | Pro...
             | 
             | Basically, when you use a term like "seemingly likely", you
             | do have a number range in mind. Always. Be it 50%-70% or
             | 40%-60%. It's impossible not to.
             | 
             | And it became a problem for CIA agents communicating with
             | each other, because different people have different sense
             | of what numbers fit a given term. It's better to be clear
             | about what you mean by giving explicit numbers. It's
             | understood in this sort of context anyway that your number
             | is not calculated from anything, that it's only the rough
             | middle of a range that sounds right to you.
        
               | bee_rider wrote:
               | > Basically, when you use a term like "seemingly likely",
               | you do have a number range in mind. Always. Be it 50%-70%
               | or 40%-60%. It's impossible not to.
               | 
               | I don't see how this is supported in the article. And the
               | experiments they discussed -- asking people what
               | probability they assign to certain expressions -- can't
               | possibly support this statement. If you ask people to
               | assign a number to an expression, they'll give you a
               | number, but that doesn't mean they were originally
               | thinking of one, or that the one they come up with is
               | meaningful.
               | 
               | > And it became a problem for CIA agents communicating
               | with each other, because different people have different
               | sense of what numbers fit a given term. It's better to be
               | clear about what you mean by giving explicit numbers.
               | It's understood in this sort of context anyway that your
               | number is not calculated from anything, that it's only
               | the rough middle of a range that sounds right to you.
               | 
               | My experience is with these sorts of number-like estimate
               | things is that I should try to figure out what plain
               | English phrase they are trying to over-specify. I mostly
               | come to this conclusion by talking about current events
               | with people (elections outcomes that they thing are sure
               | things, for example), and comparing the numbers reported
               | (by 538 for example) to odds that they are familiar with
               | (D&D critical hits are a good one, as an event that is
               | rare but memorably encountered). This tends to lower
               | confidence, which indicates to me that people don't
               | really have a feel for these numbers.
               | 
               | I don't really think 70% and 60% are different from an
               | operational point of view anyway. They are both events
               | where we think the outcome has some skew but must plan on
               | seeing the less likely outcome pretty often.
        
             | toxik wrote:
             | No you see it either is true or it isn't true, so 50-50.
        
           | 908B64B197 wrote:
           | > a [50%] probability research-related leak for the current
           | pandemic (simply calling this 50% for this post's purposes
           | because nobody knows and probabilities are difficult to weigh
           | absent more data)
           | 
           | Or when a certain country applies pressure to other countries
           | to dismiss the idea as "racism" while destroying evidence for
           | international neutral investigators to shed light on what
           | really happened.
        
             | Joker_vD wrote:
             | A frequentist is shown a coin and is asked what's the
             | probability it will land on heads.
             | 
             | Frequentist: "How the hell should I know?"
             | 
             | The coin is then flipped 10000 times, and it lands on heads
             | exactly 5000 times.
             | 
             | Frequentist: " _Definitely_ not 50%, the coin 's gotta be
             | biased".
             | 
             | A bayesian is shown a coin and is asked what's the
             | probability it will land on heads.
             | 
             | Bayesian: "It's 50%!"
             | 
             | The coin is then flipped 10000 times, and it lands on heads
             | exactly 5000 times.
             | 
             | Bayesian: "It's 50%!"
             | 
             | This two-strawmen thought experiment clearly demonstrates
             | the superiority of the Bayesian approach in learning useful
             | information from the real-world observations.
        
             | imwillofficial wrote:
             | Let's just table this one. It's too hot for HN and peaceful
             | discourse.
        
               | 908B64B197 wrote:
               | That's also the CCP's opinion!
        
         | techdragon wrote:
         | "Also expected[sic] from the requirement for reporting are
         | religious activities or other ceremonies, rites and rituals
         | intended to modify the weather."
         | 
         | This just puts such a smile on my face in the middle of reading
         | such otherwise bland government prose.
        
           | rory wrote:
           | Well of course, you can't just have people doing unlicensed
           | rain dances willy-nilly.
        
             | brazzy wrote:
             | _Daniel Howling Coyote has entered the chat_
        
             | bigdict wrote:
             | No no they meant "excepted", meaning the government isn't
             | worried too much about your rain dances.
        
         | flatiron wrote:
         | If any super villain tries their weather machine without
         | filling this out first expect the wrath of the US government.
        
           | buescher wrote:
           | But, but, my paperwork was in order!!!
        
             | chaboud wrote:
             | Oh... Carry on, then.
        
       | throw8932894 wrote:
       | We need something like this to stop global warming!
        
         | aww_dang wrote:
         | Is there any irony in observing the fickle preferences of man
         | in regards to geoengineering? Perhaps our understanding is more
         | limited than some are willing to admit.
         | 
         | 63 years ago, there was a push to warm the arctic. In 1978,
         | doomsayers predicted a new ice age. For all of the predictions
         | of apocalypse, none have materialized. However, throughout
         | history fear has been a powerful tool for motivating and
         | manipulating the public.
         | 
         | "Ice Age 1978 Leonard Nimoy" -
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tAYXQPWdC0
         | 
         | "List of dates predicted for apocalyptic events" -
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dates_predicted_for_ap...
        
           | dTal wrote:
           | Of "man"? Your language is as outmoded as your disbelief in
           | anthropogenic climate change.
        
             | hardlianotion wrote:
             | I don't think parent is blaming women
        
           | ceejayoz wrote:
           | https://www.factcheck.org/2019/05/manipulated-time-cover-
           | on-...
           | 
           | > We'll again refer to the 2008 study published in the
           | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society that found
           | there was not a scientific consensus in the 1970s on the
           | cooling idea. The authors, by surveying the peer-reviewed
           | literature between 1965 and 1979, found quite the opposite.
        
             | aww_dang wrote:
             | Fact check sites like the one you listed will increase
             | their stature when they acknowledge that science is not a
             | process of consensus. I look forward to reading a "fact
             | check" site which "debunks" this ridiculous turn of phrase.
             | Even if we accepted this misnomer in your quote, we can
             | easily observe that "scientific consensus" has shifted
             | throughout history.
             | 
             | >(00:12:30) The climatic record in these deep sea cores
             | tells us that there have been eight ice ages in the last
             | 700,000 years. It also tells us when they have occurred.
             | This provides us with a test of various theories of the ice
             | ages. We now have a theory that tells us that changes in
             | the shape of the Earth's orbit act as a pacemaker for the
             | ice age succession. Since this theory can precisely predict
             | when ice ages occured in the past, it also can predict when
             | ice ages will occur in the future. From this theory we can
             | say with confidence that we are currently heading towards
             | another ice age.
             | 
             | Dr. James D. Hays
             | 
             | https://websites.pmc.ucsc.edu/~pkoch/EART_206/09-0303/Hays%
             | 2...
        
               | Infernal wrote:
               | https://websites.pmc.ucsc.edu/~pkoch/EART_206/09-0303/Hay
               | s%2...
               | 
               | Somehow, your link was missing a hyphen.
        
               | aww_dang wrote:
               | Thank you.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | > Fact check sites like the one you listed will increase
               | their stature when they acknowledge that science is not a
               | process of consensus.
               | 
               | Science is _absolutely_ about consensus. Being right is
               | entirely meaningless if you can 't produce enough
               | evidence to convince others of your rightness.
               | 
               | There's a very significant difference between "basically
               | everyone in the field agrees there's enough evidence for
               | X" and "one guy advocates X".
        
               | aww_dang wrote:
               | I'd describe a consensus as a political event, not a
               | scientific one.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | Sure, and if you get enough of a consensus for that
               | definition change, that'll be meaningful.
        
               | bumby wrote:
               | Shouldn't consensus in policy be led by science rather
               | than rigid dogma?
               | 
               | "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do,
               | sir?" -Keynes
               | 
               | Science is about understanding the facts that inform
               | policy.
        
               | Chris2048 wrote:
               | There are plenty of soft sciences (and even some hard)
               | where the sum-total of know facts still have different
               | interpretations.
        
               | bumby wrote:
               | Yes, but that cannot be called a consensus. I'd claim
               | that just means there is too much uncertainty to make a
               | determination. (And less anyone misunderstands, consensus
               | is not synonymous with unanimous)
        
               | aww_dang wrote:
               | The question frames a false alternative in 'rigid dogma'.
               | In a generous interpretation, I'd say that this line of
               | reasoning quickly devolves into a chicken and egg
               | scenario.
               | 
               | 1) I changed my mind about the facts.
               | 
               | 2) I declare that the facts have changed.
               | 
               | 3) You must also change your mind or else I'll accuse you
               | of adhering to dogma.
               | 
               | 4) My view is now more popular. It is the prevailing
               | dogma. You're against the consensus if you disagree with
               | my "facts".
               | 
               | The word "Facts" does heavy lifting here. Ultimately,
               | facts can't make any assertions, only humans can. At the
               | core of Scientism, there's always a presumptuous attempt
               | to lay claim to objective truth. Science becomes a dogma
               | and belief rather than a method of investigation.
        
               | bumby wrote:
               | > _My view is now more popular. It is the prevailing
               | dogma._
               | 
               | I think you are misinterpreting the word "dogma". It does
               | not mean "consensus understanding" but rather
               | "incontrovertibly true". The former can change, the
               | latter cannot; wordsmithing a false equivalence doesn't
               | turn real science into dogma.
        
           | dathinab wrote:
           | None of them had anywhere the level "scientific consensus" on
           | the topic as climate change has.
           | 
           | In difference to that, we now have a scientific consensus and
           | while there is a lot discussion about many details there is
           | pretty much an agreement on:
           | 
           | - it's a lot of warming
           | 
           | - it's coming way to fast
           | 
           | - it's man made
           | 
           | - it already started
           | 
           | - the consequences if we don't change the current trajectory
           | will be bad, very very bad
           | 
           | Doesn't mean it's an apocalypse and maybe the thread to the
           | survival of humanity was larger during the cold war (not that
           | ware aren't somewhat at the beginning of a new cold war), but
           | then the a cold war can be resolved by everyone agreeing to
           | not do anything. Climate change needs everyone to do
           | something (change their power production and potential even
           | living style). Which is bad, because people are better at not
           | acting then they are at acting when it comes to hard
           | decisions.
        
             | aww_dang wrote:
             | Yes, that's one of the possibilities here. However the
             | point of the comment and what the article illustrates in my
             | view, is that these grand projects can turnout to be
             | horribly misguided in retrospect. And you may say to that,
             | "but this time is different, because..."
             | 
             | >None of them had anywhere the level "scientific consensus"
             | on the topic as climate change has.
             | 
             | Which is fine as far as that goes. However, consensuses
             | have been wrong before, even when dressed in the pretenses
             | of science. Cannabis prohibition would be a good example
             | where research was exclusively funded to show the harms of
             | cannabis. Today CBD is presented as a cure all. A common
             | thread would be the underlying financial and political
             | incentives for prohibition. Incentives matter. Another
             | parallel might exist in the fear based promotion of
             | prohibition.
             | 
             | >Climate change needs everyone to do something...
             | 
             | Yes, and as we examine the proposed solutions most of them
             | revolve around new taxes and supranational bodies issuing
             | currency in the form of "carbon indulgences" or "carbon
             | credits". We are supposed to believe that those horrible
             | oil companies have every incentive to distort the facts
             | about the climate. Yet simultaneously we should also
             | believe there are no malign incentives for or distortions
             | surrounding the inverse. We should unquestioningly believe
             | there are no ulterior motives for those who would appoint
             | themselves to issue carbon credits, permission slips to
             | consume energy needed by every human on Earth.
             | 
             | That's a bit of a stretch, but it is possible. It is also
             | possible that just like the proposed project in 1958, which
             | was imagined as a boon for the Siberian region, future
             | geoengineering projects will also have unanticipated
             | dangers. It looked good at the time, just like the drug war
             | looked good at one time. Today the climate agenda and
             | geoengineering looks appealing to many.
             | 
             | Maybe not. Maybe we don't know as much as we think we know?
        
               | dathinab wrote:
               | > is that these grand projects can turnout to be horribly
               | misguided
               | 
               | This is why instead of grand projects we should have many
               | smaller projects which combined still have a large
               | effect.
               | 
               | Also luckily many of the changes which are good for the
               | climate are (at least in their idea) also good even
               | without climate change. Like going way from coal power
               | plants, which are not just bad for the climate but also
               | bad for the environment. (Through in practice there might
               | be drawbacks in whatever replaces it.)
               | 
               | > just like the drug war looked good at one time.
               | 
               | I get your point, but I'm not sure that this is a good
               | example, the war on drugs looked from the get to go like
               | it was overly targeting certain communities while even
               | back then it was known that it's unlikely to work due to
               | e.g. previous experiences with fighting alcohol during
               | the prohibition period...
        
               | genewitch wrote:
               | My theory is that companies that manufacture soil
               | amendments are the prime mover behind all of the room and
               | gloom of climate change, specifically the need to reduce
               | atmospheric carbon.
               | 
               | Plants used to be heavier and squatter, and usable
               | material would have been greater, back when the
               | atmosphere was closer to 2000ppm CO2. That is,
               | realistically, and actually, plants get all of their food
               | from the air, and soil amendments make it easier for the
               | plants to grow tall/wide enough to get more usable sun
               | and surface area to get their food out of the air.
               | 
               | Ask anyone who's ever tried CO2 with plants what happens
               | to their fertilizer budget. It goes down, because plants
               | are carbohydrate factories, and more carbon means more
               | carbohydrates.
               | 
               | I'm off in the weeds, but cui Bono is something I ask of
               | nearly everything and other than the carbon credit
               | companies and all the people employed therein, who
               | benefits from less CO2 financially? The Bayer/Monsanto
               | and Dow of the world. Not me or you, not the oil
               | companies, not a Rockefeller or whoever.
        
         | dathinab wrote:
         | no, that proposed project wasn't done with any environmental
         | considerations at all and likely would have pretty devastating
         | environmental effects through various effects.
         | 
         | We need a huge collaboration of countries.
         | 
         | We don't need a mega project which creation will cause tons of
         | CO2 (building stuff produces CO2 equivalent emissions) have
         | devastating environmental damage, and massive security risks.
         | 
         | Assuming we can fix climate change by mega project is just the
         | wrong approach.
         | 
         | We need a very (very very) high number on mostly smaller
         | changes (and probably some larger law changes).
         | 
         | So that even if some of them fail it doesn't matter in the
         | grater picture, and so that there is actually a realistic
         | chance to pull it of (which for such a hypothetical mega
         | construction is very small for various reasons).
        
           | me_me_me wrote:
           | > We need a huge collaboration of countries.
           | 
           | Go ahead we are listening. Who would you go about
           | coordinating and enforcing 'huge collaboration of countries'?
           | 
           | All i remember is world leaders coming together, year after
           | year - shake hands, thump their chest expressing how
           | sorrowful they feel, give great speeches how everything will
           | change - and then nothing changes.
        
             | codingdave wrote:
             | Except that isn't how it has gone - we had 4 years where
             | the US did not sit down and agree, and actually went
             | backwards on climate agreements. This year, the world
             | leadership has come back together for the first time in
             | years.
             | 
             | I don't want to go down a political rabbit hole here, but
             | we should at least get the facts straight.
        
               | bumby wrote:
               | To both points, how would the political risk that looms
               | on the horizon every 4 years be mitigated? It's tough to
               | see a long term solution that isn't constantly at risk of
               | being reversed when a new camp rides into town. Maybe
               | some govt orgs like NASA who've been dealing with this
               | for decades can shed some light
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | In the US at least, a fully ratified international treaty
               | would be a fairly effective mitigation. Those have force
               | of law second only to the Constitution. Any single
               | President could somewhat obstruct implementing such a
               | treaty but wouldn't be able to stop it completely.
        
               | SteveNuts wrote:
               | Constitutional amendments come to mind, but I feel like
               | that would be difficult to pull off at this point
        
             | dathinab wrote:
             | There being a need for something and it happening are two
             | fundamental different thinks.
             | 
             | Just because it doesn't happen doesn't mean there is not
             | need for it.
             | 
             | The Bering Strait Dam btw. would have required a higher
             | degree of collaboration then is needed to limit climate
             | change. Sure a few less countries would be involved be the
             | involved countries still would need a much deeper level of
             | collaboration which given that it's effect would have been
             | rather negative for many of the cost countries it would
             | have been rather hard to archive any agreement.
        
           | rootusrootus wrote:
           | > huge collaboration of countries
           | 
           | So what you're saying is we need a _committee_ of countries.
           | 
           | I suspect the days of doing major engineering work are mostly
           | behind us. For better or worse.
        
             | russh wrote:
             | Maybe we just need a new Logo, ours looks dated.
        
         | gmuslera wrote:
         | It may slow down for a maybe short while the emission of
         | greenhouse gases originated by permafrost thawing.
         | 
         | But that won't solve that we keep adding big amounts of fossil
         | carbon to the atmosphere, nor the amount of fossil carbon that
         | we managed to add to the cycle so far that is what is driving
         | climate change now.
         | 
         | To stop global warming net zero plus massive carbon capture is
         | needed, moving pieces in a mostly closed (or at least with
         | stable enough inputs) system won't do the trick.
        
           | Chris2048 wrote:
           | Perhaps cultivation of reclaimed land could capture some
           | carbon? And it says something about re-greening the Sahara
           | too..
        
             | kibwen wrote:
             | Carbon capture from re-greening the Sahara would be
             | countered by de-greening the Amazon, since the latter is
             | fertilized by the former as winds blow dust over the
             | Atlantic. These systems are complex, and just doing what
             | intuitively feels right can just as easily be
             | counterproductive.
        
               | Chris2048 wrote:
               | Hmm, but why does the Amazon need to be constantly re-
               | fertilised? Where does it lose that phosphorus?
               | 
               | EDIT: ah, rain seems to leach it away from the amazon
               | basin over time. Still wonder where it all goes though,
               | into the sea?
        
               | genewitch wrote:
               | Forest ecosystem soil is fragile, because the soil is
               | very loose due to animals, vegetation, insects,
               | mushrooms. A large, old forest only produces on the order
               | of a foot of topsoil in 50 years. It is possible to
               | produce more artificially with rainwater mitigation and
               | drainage paths that are engineered rather than left to
               | chaos.
               | 
               | As a side effect, growing in the Sahara would also
               | potentially drastically reduce Atlantic hurricanes. So we
               | have to decide what's more important, trees (move them to
               | Sahara! Or at least replant equal numbers in Sahara and
               | elsewhere) or human lives and infra.
        
         | WJW wrote:
         | Redistributing heat across an object does not make the object
         | as a whole any cooler.
        
           | fsloth wrote:
           | No but if it affects albedo it has an effect on the incoming
           | radiation. I.e more ice - higher albedo - radiation is not
           | absorbed at the surface.
        
       | da39a3ee wrote:
       | How was damming the Bering straights going to help Pacific water
       | get into the Arctic Sea? It sounds like it would have the
       | opposite effect, which fits with the Dutch guy's proposal.
        
         | rtkwe wrote:
         | That's where the nuclear powered propellers/pumps come in they
         | sit on the dam and force the water from the pacific into the
         | Arctic Ocean. Then it can only really flow out through the
         | Atlantic.
        
       | tjalfi wrote:
       | If you enjoy reading about mega projects then I would recommend
       | Engineers' Dreams by Willy Ley. It's an older book on large scale
       | civil engineering proposals such as draining the Mediterranean
       | sea, creating an inland sea in the Sahara, and irrigating the
       | Jordan valley.
        
         | nitrogen wrote:
         | _creating an inland sea in the Sahara_
         | 
         | Could this be part of an answer to massive sea level rise?
        
           | addingnumbers wrote:
           | Napkin math says about 343km^3/year of water to contend with,
           | and the Panama canal work took 35 years to move about 0.2km^3
           | of earth, about 0.006km^3/year.
           | 
           | As a layperson it seems to me you'd need to channel a vast
           | area already below sea level (3500km^2 at ~100m deep?) to put
           | a dent in the rise.
           | 
           | Again, napkin math. Reuters claims "75.6 trillion gallons of
           | water added to the ocean each year" and a Panama canal
           | history page says the French dug 30M cubic yards and the
           | Americans dug 238M.
        
           | m4rtink wrote:
           | Wouldn't the water just continously evaporate only to, with
           | high probability, precipitate back to the "global" ocena
           | system or its tributaries?
           | 
           | You could make the see less salty though, over a sufficiently
           | long time and get a _WHOLE LOT_ of rock salt.
        
       | reddog wrote:
       | Sure this makes complete sense and everyone I know is all for it,
       | but shouldn't we be concentrating on blowing up the moon first?
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTJ3LIA5LmA
        
         | StanislavPetrov wrote:
         | Neal Stephenson wrote a book about that..
         | 
         | https://www.amazon.com/Seveneves-Novel-Neal-Stephenson/dp/00...
        
         | tzs wrote:
         | That's a link to a comedy show.
         | 
         | Here's a link about someone who actually seriously wanted to
         | blow up the moon: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Abian
        
           | jtbayly wrote:
           | Let me guess...
           | 
           | He wanted to get rid of lunacy?
        
           | JackFr wrote:
           | I remember the 'Weekly World News' writing about that under
           | the headline 'Scientists Plan to Blow Up Moon', I remember it
           | specifically because I worked with Alexander Abian's daughter
           | at the time. We all found it amusing, but she was a little
           | disappointed that after decades as a math professor his
           | legacy was going to be that.
        
           | dennis_jeeves wrote:
           | >his claim that blowing up the Moon would solve virtually
           | every problem of human existence. He made this claim in 1991
           | in a campus newspaper,[4] stating that a Moonless Earth
           | wouldn't wobble, eliminating both the seasons and its
           | associated events like heat waves, snowstorms and hurricanes.
           | 
           | Nice...
        
       | balaji1 wrote:
       | It would have been fun to see illustrations or artist renderings.
        
       | vanusa wrote:
       | See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantropa
        
         | rob74 wrote:
         | Definitely more realistic than damming the Bering Strait. Of
         | course, once the sea levels start rising, it would be worth
         | doing it just to keep the level of the Mediterranean (and Black
         | Sea) constant...
        
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