[HN Gopher] A $5B hoard of aluminum
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A $5B hoard of aluminum
Author : iamdeedubs
Score : 192 points
Date : 2021-11-29 11:30 UTC (11 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.mining.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.mining.com)
| adolph wrote:
| _the aluminium industry consumed 6% of all global coal-fired
| electricity in 2019 - more coal-fired electricity than is
| generated in the whole of Europe - and is actually becoming more
| reliant on coal at a time when the world is becoming less reliant
| on coal._
|
| https://ember-climate.org/commentary/2020/10/06/aluminium/
|
| _The aluminium sector has a pivotal role to play here.
| Accounting for 1.1 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions per year, it
| generates around 2% of global human-caused emissions. Demand for
| aluminium, an essential material for several key industries
| including construction, transportation and power transmission, is
| expected to grow by more than 50% by 2050. As such, emissions
| must be addressed now._
|
| https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/11/the-aluminium-industr...
| hasmanean wrote:
| Why don't they just like Bitcoin with electricity and use the
| waste heat in the electrolyte melting process?
|
| Using electricity to heat anything is wasteful when it could be
| used to waste clock cycles on cryptocurrency instead, first.
| murderfs wrote:
| Because they're not using it for heat, they're using it for
| electrolysis.
| AlexanderDhoore wrote:
| "at a time when the world is becoming less reliant on coal"
|
| No, we aren't becoming less reliant on coal. We should be but
| we aren't. Look at [1]. We actually consume more coal, oil and
| gas each and every year.
|
| [1] https://ourworldindata.org/energy-mix
| [deleted]
| barelysapient wrote:
| Depends by who you mean by 'we'.
|
| If you mean America, then coal consumption is down by nearly
| 50% since 2000[1]. If you mean the EU, then you'll be pleased
| to know we've also reduced our coal consumption
| substantially.
|
| The principle increase in coal use is China. They've almost
| 4x their use of coal in the last 20 years. They also are
| leading the world in construction of new coal consuming power
| plants -- both in China and elsewhere[2].
|
| [1]https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2020/demand
| [2]https://www.wired.com/story/china-is-still-building-an-
| insan...
| smallerfish wrote:
| Good link, but to be fair it looks like it's leveled off
| since 2011. Oil & gas are continuing to grow, as are solar &
| wind.
| conductr wrote:
| Relative numbers can be misleading and saying coal
| consumption has decreased is actually false. We're not
| doing Mother Earth any favors by sustaining very high
| consumption but the average reader would believe it's a
| green trend.
| smallerfish wrote:
| I didn't say decreased, I said leveled off. Mouse over
| and compare 2011 with 2019.
|
| Of course we need to cut coal usage as far as possible,
| if not completely.
| AniseAbyss wrote:
| In Europe the alternative for coal in heavy industry is natural
| gas and we all know how that's working out right now.
| jaclaz wrote:
| Only as a side note/curiosity, possibly one of the most valued
| sets of cutlery Napoleon III owned was an aluminium one:
|
| https://history.stackexchange.com/questions/51115/did-napole...
|
| Anyway until the late second half of the 1800's, it was
| considered as valuable as gold, if not more (article in French):
|
| https://journals.openedition.org/archeosciences/560
| selectodude wrote:
| Until exceptionally abundant electricity and the Hall-Heroult
| process, a french guy whose name I forgot discovered you could
| burn bauxite under a vacuum with elemental sodium. Which meant
| it was like a twenty step process that burned off other really
| expensive difficult materials to make.
|
| Wild stuff.
| FourHand451 wrote:
| In the same vein, the Washington Monument is topped with an
| aluminum pyramid. This material was selected because at the
| time of construction aluminum was still considered nifty and
| new.
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Monument#Aluminum_a...
| shmerl wrote:
| Is aluminum running out? Why is there a deficit? The article
| doesn't explain that.
| mleonhard wrote:
| The article even has a graph that shows that stockpiles are
| very high. The doom seems to come entirely from projections due
| to China reducing production. The article doesn't explain why
| other countries cannot step up production to meet demand.
|
| The article's quality is poor. It wasn't worth my time to read.
| munificent wrote:
| What form is the aluminum in these stockpiles? Bars? Giant cubes?
| Boullion? I have no idea how unprocessed aluminum is kept around.
| zozbot234 wrote:
| Beer and soda cans, duh. Just dig in a random landfill and
| you'll find the stockpiles right there.
| imilk wrote:
| Vietnam does consume a large amount of 333 and Larue
| robocat wrote:
| Likely to be either billets or sheet ingots.
|
| Billets:
| https://www.google.co.nz/search?q=%22aluminium+billets%22&tb...
| An example of dimensions: "Most of the produced billets by the
| South Aluminum Industries Complex are produced in the form of
| cylinders with a diameter of 280 (11 inches) and a length of
| 7,500 mm" and some details of their manufacturing process here:
| https://en.salcocompany.com/aluminum-billet/ Billets of various
| diameters are used in aluminium extrusion machines:
| https://www.aec.org/page/aluminum-extrusion-process-basics
|
| Ingots are rolled to produce sheet, which I think is the
| majority usage by weight of Al:
| https://www.metalex.co.uk/expert-aluminium-plate-suppliers-e...
| "The rolling process kicks off with massive, pre-heated metal
| sheet ingots weighing as much as 20 tons. The ingots tend to be
| around six feet wide, twenty feet long and over two feet
| thick."
| wombatmobile wrote:
| The aluminum market is a game.
|
| https://www.cnbc.com/2014/06/03/how-aluminum-became-a-cash-c...
| openfuture wrote:
| You are better off assuming everything is.
| jonathanwallace wrote:
| And according to
| https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/40538538, it always has
| been.
|
| In the referenced book, the author details how the aluminum
| cartel was dismantled under the threat of WWII needs because of
| their failure to promptly address the needs of the United
| States.
| adolph wrote:
| My recollection was that the Washington Monument has an
| aluminum cap on account of the material's status as a
| precious material at the time. What I found at the below link
| is a story of "fake it until you make it" pushing of
| materials science and self-promotion worthy of an HN read.
|
| https://www.tms.org/pubs/journals/jom/9511/binczewski-9511.h.
| ..
| monocasa wrote:
| Yeah, until the Bayer process was discovered to pull
| aluminum out of bauxite in the late 1880s, it was worth
| more than gold. Tutankhamen had an aluminum ankh very close
| to his body for that reason.
|
| And even for a long time after that, before we had a
| critical mass of aluminum for recycling, it was still
| extremely expensive because of how capital and energy
| intensive the Bayer process is. For that fifty or so years
| it held a similar niche as aluminum in practical materials
| science.
| robocat wrote:
| > Tutankhamen had an aluminum ankh
|
| The ability to make Aluminium would be alien technology
| to the ancient Egyptian culture. There's a good reason
| it's production was only discovered in modern times.
|
| My guess is that you were thinking of Tutankhamun's
| meteoric iron dagger https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tutank
| hamun%27s_meteoric_iron_... "Nineteen iron objects were
| discovered in the tomb of Tutankhamun, including a set of
| blades which appear very similar to those used in the
| Egyptian opening of the mouth ceremony (a ritual
| performed for the benefit of the deceased to enable an
| afterlife). These blades are also intricately linked to
| iron and stars, being described in temple inventories as
| composed of iron and were themselves frequently referred
| to as the stars. The other iron objects were wrapped with
| Tutankhamun's mummy; these include a miniature headrest
| contained inside the golden death mask, an amulet
| attached to a golden bracelet and a dagger blade with
| gold haft. All were made by relatively crude methods with
| the exception of the dagger blade which is clearly
| expertly produced. This suggests that the dagger was
| probably imported to Egypt perhaps as a royal gift from a
| neighboring territory, indicating that at this time
| Egypt's knowledge and skills of iron production were
| relatively limited. Only further analytical testing can
| confirm if all of these artifacts are made from meteorite
| iron but they do appear to suggest that iron was a
| material used to indicate high status at the time of
| Tutankhamun's death in approximately 1327 BC.".
| Invictus0 wrote:
| Fascinating read. Apparently the antitrust case mentioned
| towards the end is still ongoing.
|
| https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aluminum-lawsuit-idUSKBN2...
| slownews45 wrote:
| If people are upset by so called "dumping" - can't they just let
| China charge more than they would have for this aluminum?
|
| Aluminum has well known fixed costs in smelters, it's one of
| those products they use as an example where it may make economic
| sense to keep a smelter going (even if incurring losses / )
| because the cost of shutdown.
|
| Ie, a potline may take up to a week just to "turn off" and a huge
| amount of effort - think a month of full time work + weeks of
| troubleshooting as annode effect issues, alumina concentration
| and other bits settle down. Don't you basically have to
| recondition (fully, replace all anodes, dig out the crust) the
| pots, and even then you may be taking a bit hit on pot life with
| the cool down / reheat cycle?
|
| I know the US has "anti dumping" rules regarding sugar as well -
| which I've been told contributes to a fair bit of corn syrup use.
|
| I'm not that hung-up on the US blocking imports of cheap
| materials (if that's what the US wants to do), but how does the
| US get some third party country to grab this quantity of metal?
| Ie, China could sell to other countries that are not as concerned
| about dumping. For example, why would a poor country without a
| local smelter even care about "dumping" - it would seem the cheap
| prices would be a subsidy in effect.
| itronitron wrote:
| Now I wonder how this is related...
|
| https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3784270/Chinese-bil...
|
| https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/a-chinese-billionaire-...
| slownews45 wrote:
| Seems very possible that there was a similar approach here in
| Vietnam where a goal might have been to get the stuff to the
| US.
|
| I'm a bit confused by the seizure. Ie, if US doesn't want the
| cheap aluminum -> let another country have it cheap?
|
| That said, Biden does seem to be going big on tariffs.
|
| "The decision is one of Mr. Biden's first significant moves
| on trade and suggests that his administration may be inclined
| to maintain the type of hefty tariffs Mr. Trump imposed on
| foreign metals to protect domestic industry. That position
| found favor with unions, but disappointed industries and
| businesses that have argued the tariffs raise costs." - NY
| Times - Biden Reinstates Aluminum Tariffs in One of His First
| Trade Moves
|
| So this story does seem to be continuing with efforts by
| Biden to keep imported prices higher and there may be an
| element of politics in some of this all.
| akiselev wrote:
| _> So this story does seem to be continuing with efforts by
| Biden to keep imported prices higher and there may be an
| element of politics in some of this all._
|
| At this point it's likely a national security issue for the
| US and EU, given the dependence on aluminum for aviation
| and the history of the aluminum cartels up to WWII. Many of
| their smelters already depend on practically free or
| negative-price electricity and a flood of aluminum into the
| market could semi-permanently crush those producers.
| adventured wrote:
| > Ie, China could sell to other countries that are not as
| concerned about dumping. ... For example, why would a poor
| country without a local smelter even care about "dumping" - it
| would seem the cheap prices would be a subsidy in effect.
|
| Because you can either be part of the group of powerful nations
| that rules the planet (including through various global and
| regional trade arrangements, international organizations,
| military power, sanctions, banking/finance and so on), or you
| can be on the outs with them and they may choose to brutalize
| you at some point in that case.
|
| The US, as one example, has a lot of levers. If you decide to
| try to operate outside of its preferences, it can trivially
| wreck you if you're a small nation. China for its part
| increasingly swings a big influence hammer, which is why so
| many nations are very afraid to even offend them. If you're a
| stray midling country out there, you generally don't get to
| just do whatever you want to, even if you're not signed on to
| various limiting agreements around eg dumping. The more
| powerful nations have specific interests, a specific way they
| think the world should be, and they have no qualms about being
| randomly hypocritical (at your expense).
|
| Even most larger nations have to be quite careful. The West is
| growing quite tired of Erdogan for example and they will
| further crash Turkey's economy (further amplify the damage
| Erdogan is already doing) if they think it'll help get rid of
| him. Turkey can rather easily be smashed at this juncture,
| potentially resulting in civil war, rolling instability for
| years or decades, quasi Syriaification.
| moffkalast wrote:
| This is the material supply equivalent of a crypto coin that has
| 50% of its market cap in one wallet.
| Physkal wrote:
| Why would the aluminum stock not be useful after 10 years,
| oxidation?
| ZiiS wrote:
| Aluminum "scrap" is still very useful and valuable.
| londons_explore wrote:
| It might be in specific forms ready to be processed - eg.
| blocks of specific dimensions or weights.
|
| After 10 years outside, it's probably covered in dust and
| grime, and gotten an oxide layer. It probably isn't
| _immediately_ sellable to a car factory...
|
| But it could be reprocessed very inexpensively and become
| sellable. The loss of value would probably be well under 1%.
|
| People saying "it's so old, it's basically scrap" either don't
| know what they're talking about, or they're deliberately
| deceiving - and being market traders, I suspect the latter in
| the hopes of pushing market prices higher.
| [deleted]
| orlp wrote:
| > and gotten an oxide layer
|
| Aluminium has an oxide layer the second it comes into contact
| with air.
| marcosdumay wrote:
| It keeps increasing (exponentially slower, thus with a
| finite total depth) even without any other chemical.
|
| Anyway, out on the world there are many chemicals that can
| make it deeper, can peel it from the metal so another layer
| forms, or can mix with it and make it less insulating. I
| would be surprised if loses are as low as 1% as people
| point on this thread, but shouldn't be very large either.
| downrightmike wrote:
| Oxidation is technically a fire, albeit very slow
| jjtheblunt wrote:
| really? citation?
| haneefmubarak wrote:
| Fire is a phenomena whereby a fuel is combined with an
| oxidizer to make a new product in a manner that releases
| heat (ie: an exothermic redox reaction).
|
| Rusting of metals fits that bill since heat is in fact
| released (just a super tiny amount and rather slowly), so
| it's _technically fire_ - although fire more commonly
| implies the rapid release of copious amounts of energy as
| part of the process.
| jjtheblunt wrote:
| thanks
| jaywalk wrote:
| "Fire is the rapid oxidation of a material"
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fire
| pdabbadabba wrote:
| You might want to include the end of that sentence:
| "...in the exothermic chemical process of combustion,
| releasing heat, light, and various reaction products."
|
| This confirms the, imo, common-sense position that _no_ ,
| oxidation is not just a slow fire. A fire is a specific
| type of oxidation process that involves the production of
| significant light and heat. In other words, it is only
| true that oxidation is a slow fire if one adopts a
| definition of fire that is significantly different from
| its ordinary usage.
| jaywalk wrote:
| A fire releases the "heat, light and various reaction
| products" that it does _because_ of the speed of
| oxidation. It 's obvious even from the snippet I posted
| that slow oxidation is not _actually_ a fire.
| pdabbadabba wrote:
| Yes, but aluminum oxidizes rapidly yet this oxidation
| process does not produce significant heat and light. So
| in this context, the independent heat/light requirement
| makes a difference!
| kevin_thibedeau wrote:
| It does as a powder.
| ivalm wrote:
| Oxidation of aluminum does produce heat and light (the
| reaction is exothermic). It's just a _very_ small and
| fast fire.
| jjtheblunt wrote:
| thank you
| beervirus wrote:
| Fire is a type (fast) of oxidation. That doesn't mean
| that oxidation is a type of fire.
| londons_explore wrote:
| Acids can make that much thicker. Acids that exist in the
| environment in small amounts...
| labawi wrote:
| Like sulfur / sulfuric acid from all the coal we're
| burning.
| 14 wrote:
| I have a 1983 Honda and the aluminum shines like a mirror. It
| didn't always. When I got it the metal looked dull and
| weather possible damaged. It is amazing what buffing it can
| do. From garbage to mirror finish. Very satisfying to watch
| aluminum being polished. The aluminum did loses some of the
| outer layer that had oxidizes but looks brand new once
| cleaned up. Looks new and has the structural integrity to be
| used in aircraft is not the same but for the purposes of a
| motorcycle cover it is just fine. There are many other
| applications for aluminum that structural integrity is not if
| concern like heat sinks. The LED light I am building uses
| aluminum extrusion as heat sink.
| quesera wrote:
| Old Airstream trailers (1950s-1990s at least) can be buffed
| to a mirror-like finish.
|
| Oddly, new Airstreams seem to come pre-oxidized. Not sure
| if this is a design choice, or if they don't use aluminum
| any more.
| LeifCarrotson wrote:
| It's for manufacturability, not design... Airstreams are
| now a premium brand, and it's quite expensive to develop
| and maintain a mirror polish. Someone buying a $150k
| polished trailer expects it to be completely unblemished.
|
| You can still polish it yourself, it only takes about 80
| hours of manual labor...
| quesera wrote:
| That makes sense. Like a popcorn ceiling.
|
| Also any road damage or wear will be much more visible on
| a polished surface, which is not a premium look.
|
| I thought earlier-era Airstreams were buffed and
| clearcoated before initial sale. My only evidence is
| vintage photos, and the fact that some owners "restore"
| the mirror finish.
| verve_rat wrote:
| Mirror finished anything on the road seems like a really
| bad hazard.
| quesera wrote:
| There are no flat or concave surfaces, so any reflections
| are diffused out. Ends up not being an issue at all.
| 14 wrote:
| Well you will see big rigs with the polished tanks on the
| road already. They are typically cylindrical and even the
| back end is bubbled out so you do get some shine it's not
| like a direct beam of light hitting your eyes.
| goldenkey wrote:
| Aluminum is very oxidation resistant once the initial thin
| oxide layer forms. I doubt that is the issue.
|
| I would guess the reason is similar and would be
| weathering/erosion due to being outside and pelted with
| sand/rain/etc.
| [deleted]
| Cthulhu_ wrote:
| Yeah I was going to say, repeated rain (which is slightly
| acidic) and the like will keep pelting it. I mean the
| lifetime can probably be extended if they store it inside a
| building, but that's a lot of building space.
| tokai wrote:
| So the 'Buying spree' graph is apparently showing a surge of
| import. But it really doesn't show anything like that. Or am I
| just misunderstanding something?
| gshubert17 wrote:
| The chart legend says it represents the total value of exports
| to Vietnam from its trading partners, equivalent to Vietnam's
| imports.
|
| In 2015 and 2016 Vietnam's imports of aluminum were much larger
| than previous years and later years. The excess value over $4B
| (the level of subsequent years' imports) totals over $6B. I
| took 2015-16 to represent the surge of imports.
|
| The price of Al seems to have been around 80 cents a pound at
| the end of 2016,
| http://m.kitco.com/getChartPage?symbol=al&width=438&height=2...
| (then select 5 years). At $1,600 a ton, that's nearly 4 million
| tons.
|
| This more than covers the 1.8 million tons in the GVA
| stockpile.
| baybal2 wrote:
| The industry around the world is running out of aluminium.
| Aluminium mills are closing all around the globe, except for
| China.
|
| Why? No magnesium. And China don't let out its magnesium.
| raldi wrote:
| What's the connection between the two metals?
| baybal2 wrote:
| Almost all structural aluminium in use is duraluminium. You
| need magnesium for duraluminium alloys.
| slavboj wrote:
| "Aluminum" is sold and used as an alloy, not as pure
| elemental Al. 6061 grade aluminum for instance has ~1%
| magnesium.
| nradov wrote:
| China produces most of the world magnesium supply. Production
| is down due to electrical power shortages and they have
| restricted exports in order to ensure supply for domestic
| needs.
|
| https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-27/magnesium-shortage-in...
| bell-cot wrote:
| Hmm. Magnesium is anything but scarce -
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnesium#Occurrence
|
| OTOH, it's not used in huge quantities (vs. oil, coal, iron,
| etc.) - so it seem plausible that China could kinda corner the
| market. At a reasonable cost (for them). Especially if they're
| the ~only country bothering to run a strategy...
| baybal2 wrote:
| Energy is scarce though. Only Chinese smelters have dolomite
| based production, which is much cheaper than bruteforce
| electrolysis.
| bell-cot wrote:
| I sense something else going on here. The mineral dolomite
| is hardly scarce, and the Pigeon Process (to produce
| magnesium from dolomite) was invented in Canada in the
| 1940's.
| baybal2 wrote:
| High quality magnesite, magnesia, and dolomites are
| scarce, but central China is one big slab of them.
| s1artibartfast wrote:
| They already have the market cornered. They produce over 90%
| of the global supply.
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