[HN Gopher] Ask HN: Why would a city on Mars avoid Armageddon?
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       Ask HN: Why would a city on Mars avoid Armageddon?
        
       And a nuclear war could be multi-planetary, wiping out humanity
       everywhere.
        
       Author : amichail
       Score  : 46 points
       Date   : 2021-11-28 14:12 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
       | aaron695 wrote:
       | You are very confused.
       | 
       | The nuclear bombs were to save earth, it was designed to split
       | the asteroid in two or blow it up form the inside or something
       | something. It wasn't very scientific, but still way better than
       | Deep Impact as entertainment. Go watch stuff on Youtube about
       | Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) if you really are into
       | this sort of stuff [1]
       | 
       | Why would people on Mar not be into Michael Bay? Well, they
       | probably will, humans don't really change sadly. He'll probably
       | become a historic figure in some sort of sect, our culture is
       | going off in strange directions. Strange compared to the past
       | 100,000 years, where it was just simple stuff about the gods and
       | we killed each other over that.
       | 
       | How about step one we get to Mars, then worry about the culture.
       | It'll be very interesting whatever way it goes.
       | 
       | [1] Or read "Cubeworld", by Henry H. Gross for a fun short story
       | on this idea, by making the Earth a cube the change in gravity
       | something something deflect asteroid
       | https://www.amazon.com/Mathenauts-Mathematical-Wonder-Rudy-R...
       | "Mathenauts: Tales of Mathematical Wonder"
        
       | DicIfTEx wrote:
       | To some extent, this is the overarching theme of the second
       | season of _For All Mankind_ ; you may find it interesting.
        
       | _Microft wrote:
       | <<Edit: maybe I should have prefaced my comment with the
       | following: I am going to argue as if you were referring to a
       | _self-sustaining colony_ on Mars because the idea that an Earth-
       | dependent martian city might improve odds of survival does not
       | make much sense at all, imo. >>
       | 
       | Sure, that could happen but expanding to Mars would improve the
       | odds of survival (because an extinction event on both planets
       | simultaneously is less likely than one just on Earth). Earth is
       | currently a so-called "single point of failure" (SPOF)[0] for
       | humanity and all forms of life that we know of.
       | 
       | If we spread humanity and life to Mars and beyond (in an
       | independent/self-sustaining way and not just as an outpost that
       | depends on Earth), neither of the planets alone is SPOF anymore.
       | The solar system is still SPOF but even the close galactic
       | neighbourhood might not be of much help against events that
       | threaten the solar system as a whole (see e.g. about the effects
       | of a gamma-ray burst [1] in our 'proximity'. Note when reading
       | [1] that 1 kiloparsec = 3200 light years! [2]).
       | 
       | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_point_of_failure
       | 
       | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamma-
       | ray_burst#Effects_on_Ear...
       | 
       | [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parsec
        
         | soared wrote:
         | This is the correct answer. War may spread to mars, but a
         | massive volcanic eruption that blots out the sun (or other non-
         | war mass events) is less of an issue if you live on another
         | planet.
        
           | ModernMech wrote:
           | My issue with this is the definition of "you".
           | 
           | Yes, "humanity" will be in the universe, but they will not be
           | one homogenous culture. What's the probability that Martian
           | humans will get jealous of Earth's vast and plentiful
           | resources in 100 - 200 years, and they wage open nuclear and
           | biological war on Earth to wipe out all Earthling humans?
           | Based on what I know about humans, the probability this
           | happens approaches 1 as time moves forward.
           | 
           | And how will they evolve? What will they look like in 1000
           | years? 1 million? We don't know of any alien species now, but
           | if we send humans out into the stars we will essentially be
           | creating a new evolutionary branch of spacefaring humanoid
           | aliens. What kind of aliens will they be? The friendly kind
           | that sends scientists to other planets to study their ways?
           | Or will they be warlike aliens from Independence Day, roaming
           | the cosmos like Genghis Khan and consuming all in their path?
           | Again, based on what I know about humanity, we will be both,
           | but the latter could show up one day and just destroy Earth.
           | 
           | Personally I think none of this will happen. We will wipe
           | ourselves off Earth before we can support autonomous space
           | colonies. Likely we will fuck things up here and then our
           | space colonies will shrivel and die from lack of supplies.
        
             | jjoonathan wrote:
             | The problem with pessimism is that it is usually wrong,
             | always counterproductive, and almost never gets held
             | accountable for either. History is chock full of wrong
             | pessimists. Smarter ones than you or I, even -- but still
             | wrong. Hopefully you will be another.
             | 
             | Imagine an alternate history where Britain never let
             | colonists go to the Americas on the assumption that either
             | Britain would collapse before the colonies became self-
             | sustaining or the colonies would become belligerent and
             | conquer Britain. Now extrapolate out what the actual
             | alternate-history would have likely been, and whether those
             | concerns would have been wise or foolish.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | ModernMech wrote:
               | > The problem with pessimism is that it is usually wrong,
               | always counterproductive, and almost never gets held
               | accountable for either. History is chock full of wrong
               | pessimists.
               | 
               | History is filled with correct pessimists as well. Has
               | anyone ever been wrong by predicting that humans
               | competing for resources on a frontier will come into
               | violent and deadly conflict with one another?
               | 
               | I realize it's not a particularly deep or insightful
               | thing to say, but there seems but be an unchecked
               | optimism in these threads, one that builds a narrative of
               | humanity spreading to the stars and filling the universe
               | with our light. Meanwhile on Earth Prime we have famine,
               | genocide, war, and an unquenchable need to consume and
               | multiply. If Corona were sapient it would be making the
               | same argument - we must spread to the stars to continue
               | our existence! No one really stops to ask "why?". Why
               | should we spread to the stars? Why is the continued
               | existence of our species important to the universe?
               | Doesn't this line of reasoning make humanity no better
               | than a virus?
               | 
               | Imagine humanity coming across a planet filled with
               | sapient alien trees. Completely defenseless and they have
               | no concept of war. What would humans do at first chance?
               | Slaughter them and use them for fuel or building
               | materials. Is spreading the idea and practice of genocide
               | across the universe really what's best for anyone? What's
               | the other side of it? Is there an argument for why we
               | should do this thing that isn't grounded in selfishness?
        
               | dTal wrote:
               | >Why is the continued existence of our species important
               | to the universe?
               | 
               | It's important to _us_ , which is the only criterion
               | worth a damn when deciding what _we_ should do.
               | 
               | Specifically, the continued existence of at least some
               | members of the human species is probably the _only_
               | ethical axiom that every single human on Earth can agree
               | on. If you openly disagree - if you embrace the
               | extinction of the human race as a personal goal - well I
               | can only say that we are irredeemably enemies, and I will
               | seek your destruction with proportionate effort to my
               | estimate of your likelihood of succeeding, and I do not
               | think I will be alone.
               | 
               | (This is not to say I do not _also_ consider sapient
               | alien trees worth preserving.)
        
               | lisper wrote:
               | > History is chock full of wrong pessimists
               | 
               | You mean like the ones who were warning about how the
               | world was woefully unprepared for a global pandemic? Or
               | the ones who were warning about climate change?
        
             | rbanffy wrote:
             | > but they will not be one homogenous culture
             | 
             | No, as Humanity is not a homogeneous culture here on Earth.
             | We'll diverge as we make colonies a couple light-hours and
             | we'll diverge a lot more when our worlds are separated by
             | light-years and people and goods take centuries to go from
             | one world to another. Hopefully we can invent some form of
             | FTL travel or, at least, communication so we are less
             | disconnected.
             | 
             | OTOH, wars get really complicated when the fleet takes a
             | century to arrive at its destination, carrying 100 year old
             | weapons.
        
             | nyokodo wrote:
             | > Based on what I know about humans, the probability this
             | happens approaches 1 as time moves forward.
             | 
             | Wouldn't it be far cheaper for a Mars civilization to
             | exploit the resources of the asteroids rather than bother
             | earth? It'd be enormously uncomfortable for Mars adapted
             | people to spend any time on earth. So if it's neither
             | economic to exploit earth resources nor would it be
             | possible to enjoy a conquered earth, why ever bother? I
             | guess if it's possible for a 007 style mad scientist
             | scenario to emerge it approaches 1 given enough time,
             | however it could be so much time that the sun blows up or
             | humanity spreads to other stars.
        
               | ModernMech wrote:
               | > Wouldn't it be far cheaper for a Mars civilization to
               | exploit the resources of the asteroids rather than bother
               | earth?
               | 
               | Depends on the resource. If they want milk and chicken
               | for example, it might be better to get that from Earth.
               | 
               | > It'd be enormously uncomfortable for Mars adapted
               | people to spend any time on earth.
               | 
               | They could breed a race of human slaves to work on Earth.
               | 
               | > I guess if it's possible for a 007 style mad scientist
               | scenario
               | 
               | I'm thinking more along the lines of a Martian Hitler
               | scenario.
        
               | qwytw wrote:
               | > They could breed a race of human slaves to work on
               | Earth.
               | 
               | Wouldn't just buying stuff they need from Earth be much
               | cheaper than exterminating all people on Earth and then
               | repopulated with some new genetically engineered human
               | species?
        
               | ModernMech wrote:
               | I didn't say anything about genetic engineering, they can
               | be regular humans.
               | 
               | Moreover, wars and conquest are not rational endeavors
               | that are undertaken after a careful cost/benefit
               | analysis. WWII wasn't exactly cost effective for anyone
               | who started that war.
               | 
               | Anyway, the way I see it playing out would be that Earth,
               | realizing they are Mars' one and only lifeline, will do
               | its best to squeeze Martians for everything they've got.
               | It won't be a mutually beneficial trading relationship
               | between peer nation/planets, but an exploitive one where
               | one party has much more power than the other. Probably a
               | lot like Africa's place in the world. Unfair and
               | exploitive deals will be cut that reflect the power
               | imbalance, which will brew resentment and envy, and
               | ultimately conflict. This is how you start irrational
               | wars.
        
               | whelming_wave wrote:
               | What's the probability that Martian-Terran humans will
               | get frustrated by sending off Earth's vast and plentiful
               | resources in 100 - 200 years, and they wage open nuclear
               | and biological war on Mars to wipe out all Martian
               | humans?
        
               | iso1210 wrote:
               | And that mad scientist could just as easilly be from
               | Earth as from Mars.
               | 
               | Once you have the ability for individuals to launch multi
               | ton payloads on escape velocity, you have the ability for
               | individuals to launch multi ton payloads at earth. While
               | such an individual could target Mars and Earth, the
               | implication of the technology level of a self sustaining
               | mars base is that mankind will be spread throughout the
               | solarsystem (at least the asteroids, venus clouds, mars,
               | moon and earth), and at that stage wiping out the species
               | becomes even harder.
        
             | JamesBarney wrote:
             | > Based on what I know about humans, the probability this
             | happens approaches 1 as time moves forward.
             | 
             | Yes given infinite time we know humans are extinct. We will
             | not survive the heat death of the universe. But i don't
             | think this truism says much about whether or not creating a
             | self sustaining colony on Mars will increase the longevity
             | of our species.
             | 
             | The chances of some type of existential interplanetary war
             | between Mars and earth is so much lower than than an
             | existential earth war. It's really difficult to wage any
             | type of meaningful war across planets. They're really far
             | apart, and it's really expensive to leave Earth.
        
           | dogma1138 wrote:
           | Earth post a super volcano would still be far more habitable
           | than mars, same thing goes for a major impact event, nuclear
           | winter and pretty much anything else that doesn't turn the
           | atmosphere into a firestorm, boils the oceans and turns all
           | land mass into lava...
           | 
           | And if you get to the point in which you can terraform mars
           | then fixing the earth would be again far easier unless all
           | biomass somehow dies and there is no atmosphere left and
           | earth somehow loses its magnetic field.
           | 
           | At best mars might serve as a temporary lifeboat but even
           | then if you have the technology to sustain life on mars you
           | would be better off building protected habitats on earth.
        
         | KennyBlanken wrote:
         | Worrying about gamma ray bursts is silly when we're staring
         | down the barrel of widescale planetary disaster within one or
         | two lifetimes if we don't immediately start doing more about
         | climate change.
         | 
         | If the time it would take for a colony to not just self-sustain
         | but grow is less than the time it will take before Earth's
         | economy and industry become unstable, colonization doesn't help
         | with single point of failure.
         | 
         | Look at what COVID and a handful of bad weather events have
         | done over the years to major economic sectors and industries.
         | The chip shortage is in part due to water shortage in Taiwan.
         | Flooding a while back caused huge hard drive shortages. Etc.
         | 
         | Now imagine instead of the problem being "make enough pickup
         | trucks", it's "put a bunch of electronics and equipment on a
         | rocket and send it to a colony, or people start dying."
         | 
         | Talk of colonization efforts right now is like building a
         | garage for the Ferrari you're going to buy some day. You just
         | have to convince the HOA in your trailer park to accept the
         | plans, and figure out how to use your lawnmower to bring home
         | the lumber from Lowes...
         | 
         | Let's worry about colonization when we've sorted out how to
         | live sustainably on this planet, and feeding/clothing/housing
         | and medically caring for everyone who needs it...
        
           | generalizations wrote:
           | > Talk of colonization efforts right now is like building a
           | garage for the Ferrari you're going to buy some day.
           | 
           | Someone in a trailer park isn't likely to ever get that
           | Ferrari, so your scenario kinda begs the question that we're
           | never going to be in a position to reach Mars after fixing
           | the earth.
           | 
           | But I think your scenario is flawed anyway. We aren't living
           | in a trailer park, we're in Holland and the dykes are
           | breaking for the last time. Some of us (you, in my analogy)
           | want to try and fix them again. Others (me, etc) want to
           | build boats and send a colony elsewhere.
           | 
           | The plans aren't mutually exclusive. But it's foolish to do
           | only one.
        
           | kitsunesoba wrote:
           | The problem with, "let's wait until Earth's problems are
           | taken care of", is that Earth's problems are never going to
           | be truly taken care of. Reduced yes, eliminated no, and there
           | will always be someone arguing that we're not yet at the
           | threshold at which settling other planets is ok.
           | 
           | This is dangerous because we don't know how much of a window
           | we have for doing these things. We have the capability to get
           | into space and out of Earth's gravity well now, but there's
           | no guarantee that we will continue to. It's not hard to
           | imagine that as part of efforts to "solve Earth's problems",
           | the launch industry becomes restricted to satellite launches
           | only and atrophies to a point where taking a crew beyond
           | Earth's orbit can't be done without a decade+ of relearning.
           | 
           | Its better to continually develop these capabilities and make
           | use of them so the field is always moving forward and more
           | entities gain them, making them harder to lose.
           | 
           | We have enough people and resources to do that alongside
           | environmental disaster prevention efforts... it's just a
           | matter of political will. If you ask me, the biggest problem
           | that is in most dire need of solving at this particular
           | moment is actually obstruction of environmental reform coming
           | from powerful corporate entity superpolluters -- chiefly,
           | manufacturers, ocean cargo shippers, airlines, and the the
           | oil industry that feeds all of them.
        
           | gdubs wrote:
           | Right? Our worst problems here seem pretty mild compared with
           | the expense of a meaningful human establishment on a far away
           | rock. It would be massively cheaper to build settlements on
           | the most hostile desert on earth.
           | 
           | But more importantly, a Mars colony would require an
           | incredibly stable society on earth. Because it would take
           | decades and massive amounts of money -- and that ain't
           | happening in the midst of societal collapse due to a failure
           | to solve our problems here at home.
           | 
           | I'm a fan of space exploration, and I don't think we should
           | hit the breaks on it. But I don't think we should be
           | delusional to think there's any realistic chance of it
           | solving problems here on earth fast enough. Me must find a
           | way to live sustainably here over the next few centuries.
        
         | angelzen wrote:
         | While Earth is technically a SPOF, it is also a very large
         | place with a very long track record for successfully supporting
         | complex life forms. We can even say that life forms as we know
         | them are attractors (local minima) in the chemo-energetical
         | ecological landscape provided by Earth. None of this holds for
         | Mars. Even if we are successful in establishing a handful of
         | outposts, they are likely to be short-lived because the
         | ecological balance works against them.
        
           | _Microft wrote:
           | The thing that leads to _No life on Mars_ more certainly than
           | trying to colonize and terraform it and maybe failing at it
           | is not even trying to do it.
        
             | mseepgood wrote:
             | We should practice our terraforming skills on Earth first.
             | When we are able to improve the atmosphere and climate of
             | Earth (easy mode) we can try our skills on a remote and
             | hostile planet like Mars (hard mode).
        
               | Kon5ole wrote:
               | I'd consider Earth to be hard mode too, since it's
               | already in production and riddled with irrational users
               | who run their entire business on the memory leaks you
               | want to patch. ;-)
        
               | gdubs wrote:
               | Everyone is always seduced by the new -- the new idea,
               | the rewrite. But often what one finds is that as
               | development goes deeper, the same bugs resurface, the
               | same challenges. Our society is full of grand, ambitious,
               | "let's do it right from scratch" plans -- Le Corbusier,
               | etc -- and they often fail. The blank page is seductive,
               | but it begins the to fall apart with the first mark of
               | the pen.
        
               | sneak wrote:
               | We can and should do both simultaneously. There are lots
               | of humans.
        
               | SuoDuanDao wrote:
               | Conversely, the unpredictable nature of our first big
               | mistake as we transition Terraforming out of science
               | fiction and into text books argues for having a backup
               | planet in place before we try it here.
        
           | cableshaft wrote:
           | And humans are quickly and systematically extinguishing
           | nearly all life on this planet, including themselves before
           | too much longer at the rate we are going.
           | 
           | As the legend George Carlin once said, "the planet is fine,
           | the people are fucked". Although most animals and a bunch of
           | plants are fucked too.
           | 
           | Now that being said, I don't think that means we should start
           | colonizing Mars or that things would be any better out there.
        
             | politician wrote:
             | Consider: The Earth cannot save itself from asteroids
             | without humanity.
        
               | cableshaft wrote:
               | Earth has been hit by asteroids before and survived so
               | far, but sure, it's possible it could be hit by enough,
               | eventually, that it loses its atmosphere, as people think
               | the Earth has already lost 60 percent of its atmosphere
               | from an asteroid strike that they think created the
               | moon[1].
               | 
               | [1]: https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/earth-lost-60-per-
               | cent-of-...
               | 
               | I don't think humans will be around long enough to
               | deflect an asteroid that's big enough to do this, as it
               | could easily be hundred or thousands or tens of thousands
               | of years before it might get hit by one big enough to do
               | this again.
               | 
               | When I was young I would assume we would be around that
               | long, but I don't see a path to escaping our own
               | destruction (possibly not total, but 90% or more of the
               | total population, probably) within the next few hundred
               | years at most, possibly sooner.
        
               | sobkas wrote:
               | And neither it can with humanity. I never heard of
               | plausible plan to do it with technology we have or will
               | have.
        
               | politician wrote:
               | We launched DART last week.
        
               | kamarg wrote:
               | That may have changed as of a week ago. NASA is testing a
               | method of deflecting asteroids. See
               | https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/nasa-launch-
               | test-m....
        
         | speedcoder wrote:
         | Perhaps too many words can conflate Mars only being a small
         | step toward us "Contact"ing who we are to become:
         | https://youtu.be/sRPUO6gGSh8 ?
        
         | koheripbal wrote:
         | Correct, but obviously Martian populations would need to be
         | completely independent of Earthly support.
        
           | ravel-bar-foo wrote:
           | In order for that to happen, one needs to have Martian
           | populations. Necessity being the mother of invention.
        
         | elvischidera wrote:
         | How do you think this affect policy? Would we be likely to
         | engage in more dangerous activities simply because we have a
         | backup planet?
         | 
         | E.g: 1. Maybe we would have carried on with more risky nuclear
         | test in the past? 2. Maybe less people would care about global
         | warming on earth?
         | 
         | These questions came to mind while reading your comment. Not
         | sure if they make sense.
        
           | jjoonathan wrote:
           | No, because continuity of civilization is nowhere in most
           | people's decision making process. Everything they actually
           | care about is on Earth and that doesn't change with a mars
           | base.
        
             | cronix wrote:
             | > Everything they actually care about is on Earth and that
             | doesn't change with a mars base.
             | 
             | I can see what you're saying for the first generation of
             | people who go from Earth to Mars. I don't see that scenario
             | for the majority of people eventually born there, and
             | subsequent generations. Just like how I know relatively
             | little of my European ancestors who came to the US, and
             | I've never been there, and that's on the same planet with
             | international travel relatively cheap compared to the first
             | ones over. Some people will be born there and never leave
             | or know anything other than Martian life except what they
             | read or view on some video. Some will be able to travel
             | back and forth. I don't think most will.
        
               | jjoonathan wrote:
               | People on Earth will care about Earth, people on Mars
               | will care about Mars.
               | 
               | Do you give up on US problems just because you have lost
               | relatives in Europe? No. Do your lost relatives in Europe
               | give up on European problems because a lost relative
               | moved to the US? No. Neither of us has ever met them, but
               | I can still confidently say "no" because that's just not
               | how people work. We have plenty of things to worry about,
               | a mars colony altering basic psychology shouldn't be one
               | of them.
        
         | amichail wrote:
         | Nuclear attacks could target all points of failure though.
        
           | marcusverus wrote:
           | Adding redundancy makes our civilization more resilient.
           | Being more resilient is a good thing. The fact that this
           | increased resilience doesn't make our civilization
           | _invincible_ seems like a weird sticking point, since a) that
           | goal is obviously beyond our capability right now, and b)
           | redundancy is a necessary step in that direction.
        
             | ModernMech wrote:
             | If we send humans into space they won't be part of our
             | civilization, they will be their own. They may depend on us
             | at first, but that bond will lessen over time and they will
             | likely eventually demand independence and autonomy from
             | Earth over time. This will be denied to them, and a bloody
             | interplanetary war between Martians and Earthlings will
             | ensue. See: America v. Briton.
        
               | Wiseacre wrote:
               | Does anyone else get the feeling that HN readership is
               | far too biased from sci-fi?
               | 
               | With that logic, no country would have ever let explorers
               | leave their country to begin with.
        
               | ModernMech wrote:
               | The logic of the host country is that they can quash any
               | rebellion through the extreme application of violence
               | against the rebels. It works out sometime for them, and
               | other times it doesn't.
               | 
               | Either way a lot of people end up dead on both sides.
               | They are the poor, children, colonists, and indigenous
               | peoples. Importantly, they are not members of the
               | aristocracy, so no lessons are ever learned by elites as
               | to why empire building is a bad idea.
        
               | Wiseacre wrote:
               | With that logic we would all still be living on the same
               | continent and would never have spread across the Earth to
               | begin with.
        
               | ModernMech wrote:
               | I mean, I think it's widely held that humans coming down
               | from trees was a bad idea and should have never happened.
        
           | addingnumbers wrote:
           | Perfect is the enemy of good.
           | 
           | There's a chance the data center where I host my offline
           | backups could be destroyed at the same time as my house. Does
           | this mean I should stop wasting my time and effort on off-
           | site backups?
        
           | koheripbal wrote:
           | On both planets simultaneously?
        
       | fedbook wrote:
       | Exactly. This is why I am pro exploration but not colonization.
       | At least not until we can terraform. Colonizing mars now would be
       | a huge waste of resources.
        
         | WhompingWindows wrote:
         | Depending on the definition of colonizing, however. Does
         | sending 100 scientists there count as exploration or
         | colonization? I'd be in favor because the discoveries they'd
         | make about the history of life on Mars would radically weaken
         | mythological stories of religion, it'd be a death-blow that
         | would advance Enlightenment another notch, after the work of
         | Copernicus, Galileo, Kepler, Newton, and Einstein.
        
       | jafo wrote:
       | Addressed in Ray Bradbury's novel The Martian Chronicles (1950).
       | 
       | In Bradbury's story, the vast majority of residents of the
       | Martian colonies returned back to Earth when (atomic) war was
       | imminent, leaving Mars all but deserted, and the Earth destroyed.
       | 
       | I found this hard to believe, but this set up a really cool
       | ending.
        
         | belter wrote:
         | You Inners have no idea how bad its going to be...
        
       | aj7 wrote:
       | 100 times worse than living on Mt. Everest. Maybe build a nuclear
       | shelter on earth?
        
         | sneak wrote:
         | It's already been done.
        
       | gus_massa wrote:
       | The time to travel from Earth to Mars is about 8 month. They'll
       | have plenty of time to launch some intercepting mission.
        
       | thesuperbigfrog wrote:
       | For the Moon-Earth war, read "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress" by
       | Robert Heinlein.
       | 
       | For the Earth, Mars, and Asteroid belt conflict, watch "The
       | Expanse".
        
       | vertnerd wrote:
       | All this effort to avoid the collapse of human civilization seems
       | misplaced. Protecting humanity from calamity is only necessary if
       | humanity serves a purpose. Would you back up computer data that
       | is of no use to anyone? Of course not. The fact that something
       | exists does not justify going to extraordinary lengths to
       | preserve it.
       | 
       | Uniqueness does not make something useful or worth preserving,
       | either.
       | 
       | As individuals, we all expire at some point. Is there a reason to
       | think that humanity should be any different?
        
         | slibhb wrote:
         | > As individuals, we all expire at some point. Is there a
         | reason to think that humanity should be any different?
         | 
         | It's not a question of living forever. It's a question of
         | living as long as possible. Individuals certainly try to do
         | that.
         | 
         | I think your post is playing a game. You think your life has
         | value. Claiming otherwise is meaningless verbiage unless you,
         | um, follow through. It's difficult (maybe impossible) to
         | rationally ground that belief but that doesn't stop us from
         | holding it.
        
           | rTX5CMRXIfFG wrote:
           | Just because you think that humans aren't special doesn't
           | mean that you should commit suicide, though.
           | 
           | I'm personally not against humans reaching for the stars,
           | heck I think we should do everything we can to succeed in
           | that, but for the purposes of acquiring knowledge and not
           | first and foremost self-preservation. I mean, if we're
           | disagreeing with this comment because we think we are special
           | and have the moral obligation to survive, there's a ton of
           | work that we need to and _can_ do here on Earth before trying
           | to settle in another planet, right? If we can think of
           | terraforming Mars, heck we should be able to stop all kinds
           | of pollution right now, but that's not even the kind of
           | rhetoric that I'm seeing here in HN.
        
             | slibhb wrote:
             | > Just because you think that humans aren't special doesn't
             | mean that you should commit suicide, though.
             | 
             | No but it implies there's nothing wrong with suicide.
             | 
             | > If we can think of terraforming Mars, heck we should be
             | able to stop all kinds of pollution right now, but that's
             | not even the kind of rhetoric that I'm seeing here in HN.
             | 
             | Really? I see it all over HN. Lots of posters are very
             | concerned about global warming and pollution and those
             | posts are often highly upvoted.
             | 
             | But I don't think we have to choose between colonizing Mars
             | and treating the Earth better. We can do both. (Well I'm
             | not optimistic about the Mars colony but I certainly think
             | we should try).
        
               | rTX5CMRXIfFG wrote:
               | Acknowledging the fact that everything perishes,
               | including humans, because we are not special, does not
               | imply that there is nothing wrong with suicide (though
               | I'd like to see you successfully argue that point--but
               | that's a separate discussion). You're making a huge leap
               | here.
               | 
               | I mean, sure, we can do both, but I do maintain that
               | since, right now, the only success that we can guarantee
               | from exploring space with our current tools is to gather
               | knowledge, anybody who genuinely believes and is
               | committed to the idea that we have a moral obligation to
               | prolong the life of our species should be trying to save
               | Earth right now.
        
               | slibhb wrote:
               | > Acknowledging the fact that everything perishes,
               | including humans, because we are not special, does not
               | imply that there is nothing wrong with suicide
               | 
               | Suicide remark aside, my overall argument was that "human
               | life has no special value" is a pose. People value human
               | life in a special way, including their own, for whatever
               | reason, rational or not, and we know this by observing
               | human behavior, including our own.
               | 
               | > I mean, sure, we can do both, but I do maintain that
               | since, right now, the only success that we can guarantee
               | from exploring space with our current tools is to gather
               | knowledge, anybody who genuinely believes and is
               | committed to the idea that we have a moral obligation to
               | prolong the life of our species should be trying to save
               | Earth right now.
               | 
               | Not only can we do both but we are. I'm not a Musk fanboy
               | but I am glad that battery tech, solar, electric cars,
               | and rockets are all being built.
               | 
               | Also, due to politics, fixing problems on Earth is in
               | some sense a harder problem than colonizing Mars. Whether
               | or not a Mars colony survives, if we have the technology
               | to try it, we can give it the old college try. Meanwhile,
               | something as simple as a carbon tax is politically
               | impossible.
        
               | [deleted]
        
         | addingnumbers wrote:
         | This sounds like bare nihilism to me. Why do anything, if
         | nothing matters?
        
         | WhompingWindows wrote:
         | You believe there's nothing worth preserving in human
         | civilization, that's there no purpose to anything humanity
         | does? I'd argue we are biological beings with consciousness, we
         | have the capability of experiencing wonderful things. As our
         | ancestors did before us, isn't on us to keep the ball rolling,
         | to allow future descendants to experience the joys of life and
         | thought?
        
           | rTX5CMRXIfFG wrote:
           | Trace up our ancestry far enough and you'll realize that the
           | earliest humans didn't mean to bear us to experience the joys
           | of life and thought but, really, they were just performing
           | their natural, animalistic urges to hump each other.
        
             | WhompingWindows wrote:
             | It's not procreation that's our sole purpose on Earth,
             | however. Yes, Darwinian evolution posits that ability to
             | procreate successfully shaped every species. However, I'd
             | argue due to our consciousness, our ability to generate
             | culture via language and history and tradition, our ability
             | to manipulate the environment via tools and learning, these
             | move beyond Darwinian evolution. Our culture and language
             | and toolsets are extremely powerful and wonderful
             | collective objects that are worth preserving and
             | cultivating evermore.
             | 
             | Just ask yourself, wouldn't it be a shame if there was no
             | one around to listen to Beethoven or Mozart, to look at
             | Monet or Van Gogh Paintings, or to appreciate the sound of
             | poetry or the movement of a dancer? I think denying that
             | humans are social beings in a massive social network is
             | easy, that way nothing we do really "matters" to the
             | universe, even though it matters intensely to other humans.
        
               | ModernMech wrote:
               | > wouldn't it be a shame if there was no one around to
               | listen to Beethoven or Mozart, to look at Monet or Van
               | Gogh Painting
               | 
               | I notice the specific examples you list here are part of
               | the western canon, which I assume is part of your culture
               | and therefore important to you. But you didn't list any
               | artists from other cultures. Why do you think people
               | living in another planet some time in the distant future
               | would miss the artists from your culture? Wouldn't they
               | have their own art and music unique to them that they
               | would care about more than the things you care about?
               | 
               | I get that it's sad to think about these artists dying
               | for good (as in their art being wiped from collective
               | memory) but it's something that happens all the time to
               | artists throughout history, and I really don't think it's
               | a great shame on a cosmic scale that the artists you
               | mention might be forgotten in the future. I think as much
               | as you would want to share Mozart with the Martians, they
               | will care about him just as much as you care about
               | artists from South America in the year 900. That is to
               | say, not at all.
        
               | rTX5CMRXIfFG wrote:
               | To whom would it be a shame that no one is around to
               | listen to the likes of Beethoven and Mozart when your
               | premise is, exactly, that no one is around?
        
             | awb wrote:
             | Yet we don't abandon our young, or even our elders, we look
             | to find meaning beyond procreation and survival. Look at
             | song, dance, storytelling, love, rituals, writing, art,
             | mentoring, etc. We invest tons of time not procreating.
        
         | yodsanklai wrote:
         | It's just survival instinct that is built in our DNA. It
         | operates at the species level too, probably to a lesser extent,
         | since we don't seem equipped to prevent the collapse.
         | 
         | But overall, this is how I make peace with my mind with the
         | announced decline. On the grand scheme of things, it doesn't
         | really matter, and we're bound to disappear anyway. So maybe
         | Bill Gates is right: having fun burning as much fuel as
         | possible with his jet and super yacht while it lasts, and
         | hoping that something comes up from innovation.
        
         | adventured wrote:
         | > The fact that something exists does not justify going to
         | extraordinary lengths to preserve it.
         | 
         | The flaw in your premise is that you're dropping context on the
         | individual. If you pretend humans are a mere non-thinking, non-
         | individual collective, then what you're saying is correct.
         | That's false. Each person will strive to exist, to persist, for
         | their own reasons (with each life being different, literally;
         | with each reasoning pathway being unique, literally).
         | 
         | > As individuals, we all expire at some point. Is there a
         | reason to think that humanity should be any different?
         | 
         | That something ceases to exist, that it expires, doesn't
         | automatically determine whether it has value. By your premise
         | all entities have no value. That I exist and place value on at
         | least one entity acts to prove you wrong (ie you're wrong).
         | 
         | > Uniqueness does not make something useful or worth
         | preserving, either.
         | 
         | You've got the premise entirely formulated incorrectly. I'm not
         | asking your permission to exist. I'm not asking to be granted
         | value by you. I exist. I decide if my life has value, you do
         | not (more precisely: your input has essentially zero value in
         | that calculation; my input has enormous consequence/value in
         | the calculation). I decide how great of a value to place on my
         | existence. I decide if I think my life is useful, in other
         | words, and whether it's worth preserving - your input is not
         | necessary and is in fact meaningless. I decide with my own
         | reasoning what purpose my life has, what value my life has, and
         | can change my thinking on the matter at any time I see fit; my
         | thinking on the matter is the extreme primary, and by
         | comparison your thinking on the matter is irrelevant. That is
         | to say, it doesn't matter what you think, when it comes to
         | whether you think my existence is worth preserving or of value.
         | This is a simple demonstration of how you dropped context on
         | value determination as it pertains to the fact that humans are
         | individual actors.
         | 
         | That should all be quite easy to grasp.
         | 
         | Yeah, but why does that matter? It matters because Elon Musk is
         | an individual and has decided to go to Mars. How do you plan to
         | stop him and his SpaceX party of happy Mars bound radicals? You
         | can't, most likely - they're acting on their individual value
         | systems, aligning with other like-minded persons, to achieve
         | something greater than they could accomplish alone. They have
         | decided their goal matters, that it is has value, they're not
         | waiting for the permission of 7.8 billion other people to go;
         | they're not waiting for a billion other people to tell them
         | that what they're doing has value, that their existence
         | matters, they're going regardless of what most people think:
         | they decide if what they're doing with their lives has value or
         | not (and yes, of course, there are some very powerful forces
         | that could potentially stop them, such as the US Government;
         | some amount of permission is usually required for such a
         | considerable undertaking when operating within a society;
         | although to be clear, the government still doesn't dictate
         | whether their goals have value, those people can still value
         | their goals even if denied permission by the government to
         | pursue them).
        
         | awb wrote:
         | Well some of us think we serve a purpose and that's as good as
         | we'll probably get because there is no absolute truth or
         | definitive objective to measure against.
         | 
         | Even you posting a comment shows some purpose. In that sense
         | humanity is worth saving to preserve your comment / thought
         | process alone.
         | 
         | Or, if we save humanity as a reminder to ourselves and others
         | that our humanity exists absent of any purpose, that sounds
         | like plenty of purpose to me.
        
         | BobbyJo wrote:
         | On that same scale, your life is insignificant, but you try to
         | preserve that no?. Do you have kids? Family? Their lives are
         | also insignificant in the same way. If you're invested in your
         | own life, or the lives of loved ones, but not in the lives of
         | your fellow man, you're not enlightened to our insignificance,
         | you're selfish.
         | 
         | I want the next generation to have the opportunities I've had,
         | if not more, and I'm sure they'll want the same for the next.
         | Given that, it only makes sense to try and preserve a future
         | for humans in general.
        
           | rTX5CMRXIfFG wrote:
           | I don't see how this is a rational response to the question
           | that the commenter posited. It's all assumptions on top of
           | assumptions about his/her personhood.
           | 
           | What do you mean by "preservation" here--is it just attending
           | to our most basic physiological needs? Is doing that really
           | even an active choice? What about the things that we do for
           | our loved ones--is that on the same scale as trying to
           | preserve our species from mass extinction? What if the
           | commenter contributes to charity or puts out excellent work
           | which improves people's lives--does that not count as caring
           | for the lives of one's fellow man?
        
             | BobbyJo wrote:
             | > What do you mean by "preservation" here
             | 
             | Preserve, as in, to maintain. Like, not let it disappear.
             | That should be obvious from the context, so I have a hard
             | time believing this was a good faith attempt at poking
             | holes in what I said.
             | 
             | > Is doing that really even an active choice?
             | 
             | Mostly no, but only because choosing not to preserve your
             | own life is such a startlingly rare occurrence we don't
             | really think of it as an option. How is chosing to preserve
             | humanity as a whole not a similar 'non-choice' in that
             | case?
             | 
             | > What about the things that we do for our loved ones--is
             | that on the same scale as trying to preserve our species
             | from mass extinction?
             | 
             | It doesn't need to be on the same scale to be driven by the
             | same factors.
             | 
             | > What if the commenter contributes to charity or puts out
             | excellent work which improves people's lives--does that not
             | count as caring for the lives of one's fellow man?
             | 
             | It certainly would, and would make the cognitive dissonance
             | of thinking humanity is itself not worth preserving pretty
             | stark.
             | 
             | > I don't see how this is a rational response to the
             | question that the commenter posited.
             | 
             | I am likewise confused how you thought any of this was a
             | rational rebuttal to my own statements.
        
         | gooseus wrote:
         | The human mind is the most complex and entropy-reducing machine
         | the Universe has ever produced (to our knowledge).
         | 
         | If you look around the rest of the Universe you may find thing
         | of interest and beauty, but those concepts of "interesting" and
         | "beautiful" are entirely constructs of that human mind. The
         | only way anything in the Universe is "beautiful" or
         | "interesting" is because minds exist which can appreciate other
         | parts of the Universe as such.
         | 
         | Protecting humanity isn't about protecting individuals or
         | anything specific, it's about preserving a process that can
         | make new and interesting things happen in the Universe.
         | 
         | One of the most interesting things that humans can do is
         | conceptualize something like "purpose", just like "beauty" one
         | could make the case that the Universe has no purpose without an
         | intelligence embedded inside which can articulate one and that
         | we are in the process of deciding a Purpose for the Universe
         | through our philosophical/theological discussions.
        
         | marcusverus wrote:
         | Imagine the cosmos without a single solitary observer.
         | Populated with automata which simply act out their genetic
         | instructions, never seeing beyond the next meal or the next
         | opportunity to couple. Imagine the cosmos without one single
         | sentient being that could look up at the sky and think, "Wow!".
         | 
         | It would be a shame for all of this to go on, just existing,
         | unappreciated. The cosmos deserves to be loved.
        
           | cableshaft wrote:
           | So you're saying is this is all about to become Conway's Game
           | of Life without an observer? Interesting thought.
        
         | toss1 wrote:
         | Of course we all expire at some point, individually and
         | collectively.
         | 
         | However, we almost all make efforts to push that point as far
         | into the future as possible (the main exception being when doom
         | is near and assured, and only increasing misery is foreseen on
         | the way).
         | 
         | So, why would we not try to extend the expiration date,
         | individually and collectively? It's a big universe, so much to
         | explore!
        
       | BasilPH wrote:
       | This is a theme in the Mars Trilogy series. Without spoiling
       | anything, I think the timeline can make a difference. If
       | Armageddon happens far enough into the future on earth, Mars
       | might have become independent. The population of Mars might also
       | feel detached from the events, just like we in the West don't
       | care too much about military coups in smaller countries.
        
       | GDC7 wrote:
       | It's not about saving humanity or saving consciousness or all
       | that BS.
       | 
       | It's about a very selfish 1st world problem:
       | 
       | Seeking thrill and also not to be discounted the willingness to
       | feel special. Everyday we see and interact with so many people,
       | we have also internalized the concept of being one unit in a 8B
       | sample and that hurts our ego as we want to feel unique and
       | irreplacable.
       | 
       | People hope to find that in a small Mars community, feeling
       | irreplaceable both on a conceptual level as well as a practical
       | level (meaning for the operation of the colony).
        
       | User23 wrote:
       | If it were a self-sustaining colony, within a couple generations
       | basically everyone would be everyone else's cousin. That would
       | probably reduce the impetus for major war as opposed to family
       | drama.
        
         | spaetzleesser wrote:
         | The royal families in Europe were closely connected with each
         | other but that didn't stop them from starting World War 1 and
         | many other wars.
        
       | pvaldes wrote:
       | Before to colonize mars there is a thing that we as species
       | could, or should probably do (in my arrogant opinion), and is to
       | put a copy of security of the human species in the moon, in form
       | of a few boxes full of frozen reproductive cells. Maybe also
       | copies from a few animals that are really essential to us as
       | wolves, red jungle fowl or horses. If we can put it in the moon,
       | we can put it in Mars, and that would be the cheaper way to put a
       | significant amount of people in the planet Mars. This will be
       | needed either to replace the people that will die in accidents in
       | a such hostile environment, or to replace fast people killed in a
       | massive catastrophic event in the earth, like a nuclear winter
       | period and to alleviate the effect of bottle neck genetic periods
       | in humans. We had some in the past.
       | 
       | The problem is that would grant like 30 years of safety. Maybe.
       | Not much more, but could be enough.
        
       | everdrive wrote:
       | I feel like I've missed some context here. Currently we do not
       | have a city on Mars, nor have we developed nuclear missiles which
       | can deliver a payload to Mars. I'm sure that such a thing is
       | within our grasp, but a military still has to be incentivized to
       | build an interplanetary nuclear weapon stead of spending that
       | defense budget elsewhere. If the martian cities cannot strike
       | _from_ Mars, then there is little incentive to building the
       | capability to destroy them.
       | 
       | Anyhow, what are we talking about here? Why did the topic of Mars
       | and avoiding nuclear armageddon come up?
        
       | cletus wrote:
       | This question presupposes a lot and it's a deep topic so I don't
       | want to get lost in the weeds.
       | 
       | Your question, I assume, is based on the idea that humans may
       | well colonize Mars and one of reasons for doing so is to increase
       | humanity's chance of survival an otherwise extinction-level
       | event.
       | 
       | It's worth pointing out that nuclear war is just one of many
       | potential extinction level events. Even then, nuclear war in
       | particular is unlikely to exterminate the entire species. Another
       | where colonizing Mars would help is, say, a massive body
       | impacting Earth.
       | 
       | But stepping back, colonizing Mars is largely a romantic notion,
       | not a logical one. People imagine themselves walking on Mars but
       | there are severe problems with this:
       | 
       | 1. Gravity is much lower than Earth. It's roughly similar to the
       | Moon. It's unclear how we'd deal with living in low-gee like this
       | on an indefinite basis;
       | 
       | 2. Mars has an atmosphere but it's actually worse than no
       | atmosphere in many ways. It's barely above vacuum so you can't
       | breathe it, even if it was the right gas mix (which of course it
       | isn't). All it really does is stir up dust to cover all your
       | above-ground installations. Solar panels are likely to be one of
       | these so you can't really avoid it. Dirt and dust on Earth have
       | been eroded by eons of wind and water. Not so on Mars. Martian
       | dust is jagged and "sticky" as a result. So it's more annoying.
       | 
       | 3. Mars has no protection from solar radiation unlike Earth (ie
       | the Van Allen belt / magnetosphere); and
       | 
       | 4. Even though gravity is lower, getting into and out of the
       | gravity well is still a considerable issue, particularly given
       | the lower atmosphere doesn't have the same potential for
       | aerobraking as Earth's atmosphere does.
       | 
       | For nuclear war in particular, a political entity may well also
       | exist on Mars that will make a nuclear strike. You'd likely get
       | more warning since Earth's superpowers have quick strike
       | capability from nuclear attack submarines that can be positioned
       | off the coast of major cities. Mars of course has no oceans so
       | you're talking air or ground vehicles or ground installations.
       | 
       | Nuclear missiles could come from Earth but you'd get a lot of
       | warning for this (weeks to months) and this wouldn't be cheap.
       | 
       | Personally I'm convinced the future of spacefaring humans is in
       | orbitals not on other moons or worlds.
        
       | AtlasBarfed wrote:
       | If we are on Mars likely we'll be in space habitats very shortly
       | thereafter.
       | 
       | So it's more a signifier of diaspora on space than about a single
       | Mars city
        
       | GistNoesis wrote:
       | How likely is it that a life-destroying Gamma Ray Burst hitting
       | Earth would spare Mars ?
        
       | spodek wrote:
       | To propose we go to Mars to protect the species is backward.
       | People with the means want to go to Mars to show off or other
       | personal reasons. Then they drum up some humanitarian-sounding
       | reason for government and popular support.
       | 
       | If we could prove beyond shadow of a doubt that no dangerous
       | asteroids would hit Earth for a million years and that pursuing
       | Mars accelerated our environmental problems here, I don't doubt
       | that the same people would come up with new justifications and
       | keep going, even if counterproductive.
        
       | api wrote:
       | I don't think "a backup copy of humanity" is the best argument
       | for space settlement. It's not necessarily wrong, but it's not
       | the strongest and you are correct that it's not foolproof.
       | 
       | The best argument is that frontiers are where innovation happens,
       | and where outsiders can migrate as a "pressure valve" for
       | civilization. Without a frontier there is nowhere to try new
       | things and it's impossible to challenge existing norms without
       | fighting. No frontier means either eternal stagnation or eternal
       | war. (War can take the form of either overt violence or constant
       | political turmoil.)
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frontier_thesis
       | 
       | I don't think it's a coincidence that sci-fi that posits a
       | frontier (generally space but sometimes others) is usually more
       | optimistic than sci-fi that posits a humanity confined to Earth's
       | gravity well. Writers and artists see this.
       | 
       | We are rapidly approaching a state in which the entire planet is
       | settled, surveilled, and regulated. This is unprecedented in
       | human history, and I think it's going to be fairly dystopian. I
       | can only see two possible outcomes: absolutely total global
       | surveillance state or a global "failed state" resembling a
       | dystopian cyberpunk anarchy like Stephenson's Snow Crash. They're
       | not mutually exclusive; the first could lead to the second.
       | 
       | I don't think it's feasible to reverse this trend. It's a natural
       | outcome of humanity's growth and technological advancement.
       | Pushing out to a new frontier is really the only option.
        
         | koheripbal wrote:
         | If you imagine humanity as the first single celled organism of
         | the galaxy, diversification and evolution goes hand in hand
         | with spreading out.
        
         | RodgerTheGreat wrote:
         | Earth still has vast oceans and polar deserts which are
         | virtually unclaimed and uninhabitable, yet still offer a more
         | inviting environment than mars: ample water, protection from
         | radiation, in some cases more available solar power, low-
         | latency communication with other inhabited areas, etc. There's
         | an opportunity to work toward the kinds of radical self-
         | sufficiency that would be needed on Mars without leaving the
         | planet.
        
           | api wrote:
           | I see this brought up often and I think it glosses over a lot
           | of things.
           | 
           | Antarctica is a common red herring in these discussions. It's
           | illegal to settle there, otherwise there already would be
           | settlements likely bootstrapped through mining. The entire
           | continent is locked down by treaty.
           | 
           | Seasteading is technically possible but there are many issues
           | once it gets to the point of declaring oneself a nation
           | state. It's also worse in certain respects than Mars. The
           | climate is obviously far better, but you can't mine anything
           | and land in the form of floating platforms is vastly more
           | costly.
           | 
           | Lastly though, I really think space as a frontier is
           | qualitatively different and people know it. Compared to the
           | scale of current or even foreseeable future human
           | civilization, it's infinite and near inexhaustible even
           | without positing any kind of FTL or near-light-speed travel.
           | The solar system alone is just monstrous. It's called space
           | for a reason.
        
             | kitsunesoba wrote:
             | > Lastly though, I really think space as a frontier is
             | qualitatively different and people know it. Compared to the
             | scale of current or even foreseeable future human
             | civilization, it's infinite and near inexhaustible even
             | without positing any kind of FTL or near-light-speed
             | travel. The solar system alone is just monstrous. It's
             | called space for a reason.
             | 
             | This is really key. Once the cat is out of the bag with
             | spacefaring being democratized and relatively cheap, the
             | frontier is truly endless. It won't peter out like all of
             | Earth's frontiers have -- space will always have more
             | wilderness than we have people.
        
               | giantrobot wrote:
               | > democratized and relatively cheap
               | 
               | This is not and is unlikely to ever be a thing. Every
               | human surviving off Earth needs to carry a minimum amount
               | of infrastructure with them at all times. They need air,
               | heat, water, and food (roughly in that order). None of
               | those things can be found in usable quantities off Earth.
               | They also can't be easily fashioned out of local
               | materials.
               | 
               | So even your cheapest most democratized scrap yard rocket
               | needs reliable life support. It also needs a lot of fuel
               | to actually get to a "frontier". Willpower and desire
               | don't have enough mass to provide propulsion. Like with
               | life support fuel for any given rocket is not easily
               | synthesized from local materials.
               | 
               | Doing anything in space requires expensive infrastructure
               | and complicated supply chains. Promises of 3D printed
               | rockets from Mars rocks are as realistic and practical as
               | rockets constructed of unicorn bone and powered by dragon
               | farts.
               | 
               | The cheapest and most democratized things you can send
               | into space _currently_ are CubeSats. They are several
               | orders of magnitude away from  "cheap and democratized"
               | manned spaceflight.
        
         | NateEag wrote:
         | > I don't think it's a coincidence that sci-fi that posits a
         | frontier (generally space but sometimes others) is usually more
         | optimistic than sci-fi that posits a humanity confined to
         | Earth's gravity well. Writers and artists see this.
         | 
         | But see The Expanse for a strong contradiction of this pattern.
         | 
         | It has frontiers but human nature has not suddenly gone through
         | a transmutation that makes it natively good.
         | 
         | ...and I'll argue The Expanse is actually way better than most
         | of those optimistic shows. Especially any of the Star Trek
         | series. (Season 1 of Picard was an improvement on most ST, I'll
         | happily grant)
        
           | api wrote:
           | It's not that human nature will get better with a frontier.
           | It's that it gets worse without one.
           | 
           | The best scenario I can think of for a closed Earth is
           | Singapore but with more surveillance and a much more stagnant
           | culture. Oh, and a very high rate of suicide and mental
           | illness.
        
         | ModernMech wrote:
         | The problem with frontiers is that one culture's "frontier" is
         | another culture's homeland. Look what happens to native
         | populations every time they encounter a more technologically
         | advanced civilization.
         | 
         | My worry about a lawless infinite frontier is that it will
         | encourage lawless exponential exploitation. What happens when
         | one of these spacefaring humanoids innovates a planet-eating or
         | sun-eating machine. Just a vessel that consumes an entire
         | planet. Or a death star type weapon?
         | 
         | Now you have a civilization of innovating planet eating humans
         | roaming and multiplying throughout the universe like a virus.
         | Does life exist on the planets they eat? Who knows or cares?
         | Who would stop them if it did? I wouldn't leave it past the
         | human mind to implement this.
        
           | api wrote:
           | There are no guarantees of course, but I am fond of saying
           | "it's called space for a reason." There is so damn much of
           | it. Go find one of those "solar system to scale" models.
           | 
           | Anyone with interstellar capability could definitely go
           | somewhere else. That doesn't guarantee they won't be assholes
           | but it means it's unlikely that future spacefaring
           | intelligences will be pushed into an aggressive position by
           | scarcity of land or resources. They will at least have the
           | option of just going elsewhere.
           | 
           | Personally I think large scale space conflict for rational
           | reasons is unlikely both because of how costly it could be
           | (any spacefaring being has ludicrously overpowered WMDs) and
           | the optionality. So if it does happen I would predict it
           | occurring for irrational reasons. That happens of course.
        
         | inglor_cz wrote:
         | I wonder to which extent our current Western re-orientation
         | towards introspection and a crusade against psychological harm
         | stems from a lack of space for physical expansion, and the
         | exhaustion of the IT revolution. The Zeitgeist tends to
         | concentrate on one or two things only. Maybe a rebooted Space
         | Race could make us again look towards the sky.
        
           | api wrote:
           | Absolutely. The Internet was for a short while a proxy
           | frontier, but now it's largely "settled" at least as far as
           | the average person is concerned.
           | 
           | The endless culture war shitshow is a preview of what happens
           | when there is nothing to do and nowhere to go. Anyone with
           | children knows what bored isolated kids are like. Adults are
           | just grown up children; our psychology is not that different.
           | We go fucking nuts. Our cultural and political insanity will
           | only get worse from here on out unless there is some
           | frontier, some unknown, some mystery somewhere.
           | 
           | Again I feel like I should stress that this condition is
           | unprecedented in human history. One has always been able to
           | walk off in some random direction and go elsewhere, and
           | contrary to what some people think there was quite a lot of
           | travel in the ancient world. Otzi the ice mummy was found
           | carrying copper tools with copper that likely came from quite
           | far away:
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otzi#Tools_and_equipment
           | 
           | Edit: total tangent but: I use the term settlement instead of
           | colonization because I think the European colonial era is
           | kind of a bad model of what this will be like. The best model
           | I see in history for what space migration will be like is the
           | Polynesian settlement period.
           | 
           | https://www.worldhistory.org/article/1586/polynesian-
           | navigat...
           | 
           | SpaceX is building our equivalent of the Polynesian multi-
           | hulled canoe.
        
       | legrande wrote:
       | Forget nuclear war. If Mars was used to test bio-weapons or
       | nanotech weapons then it could leak onto earth by accident.
        
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