[HN Gopher] The Economics of Broadway Shows
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The Economics of Broadway Shows
Author : yarapavan
Score : 64 points
Date : 2021-11-27 11:41 UTC (1 days ago)
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(TXT) w3m dump (thehustle.co)
| TomAbel wrote:
| Here is two interesting articles from The Economist where they
| analyse the success of Hamilton[1] and where they see if you
| could have predicted the success of Hamilton[2] and here is a in
| depth post on the data and methodology of the model they created
| and used[3]
|
| [1]https://www.economist.com/business/2016/06/16/no-business-
| li...
|
| Archive of the first Article https://archive.md/L3xzV
|
| [2]https://www.economist.com/the-economist-
| explains/2016/06/15/...
|
| Archive of the second Article https://archive.md/oylse
|
| [3]http://www.economist.com/broadway-business
|
| Archive https://archive.md/5HUpH
| B1FF_PSUVM wrote:
| > could have predicted the success
|
| Some wag, noting how economists were better at explaining the
| past, remarked they had successfully predicted nine out of the
| last five crises ...
| tsimionescu wrote:
| There's also an observation that economists are the people
| most able to tell you how long your nails will be in 5 years
| assuming you never cut them.
| dehrmann wrote:
| The main sign it was going to be a success was a performance
| Lin-Manuel Miranda did at the White House. Listen for where the
| laughs are; they're not there when you see it on Broadway (and
| I assume The Public Theater).
|
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNFf7nMIGnE
|
| That's important because the premise is high school cringy.
| Let's take a historical story _and set it to rap!_ If it wasn
| 't so well-executed, it would have come off as painfully
| gimmicky.
| anm89 wrote:
| I would say the general perception is that it was extremely
| cringey.
|
| Obviously they found a large enough audience that disagreed
| but I don't think they were a majority.
|
| Obviously anecdotal.
| ethagknight wrote:
| >>General perception of extremely cringey
|
| I'll offer a counterpoint. I've seen it once live and soon
| going to see it twice next time it comes to town in a few
| months. I can't wait, I'm giddy. A whole lot of people out
| there clearly are too.
|
| I totally get that some people literally can't understand
| rap music words. If you are hard of hearing and aren't
| familiar with the story, you are totally lost in the
| audience (ESPECIALLY as the actors change characters after
| intermission)
|
| In my experience there's a group of annoying "New Yorkers"
| (aka people who identify as New Yorkers, as in they lived
| there during an internship in college or spent a couple
| years "working in finance" finding themselves before moving
| back to Tupelo) who love to shit on anyone who recently saw
| Hamilton; they roll their eyes and say "oh yes yes I saw
| the original cast back in 2015, it was cute..." Calling
| Hamilton extremely cringey sounds like signaling or
| sneetching vs. an honest critique of the show. It's a thing
| I've noticed repeatedly and this comment fits that bill,
| and I don't know why it bothers me more than simply saying
| "I didn't care for it" but it does.
|
| Hamilton is a phenomenal work of art, the White House
| performance is a peek at creative genius in process, my
| kids have probably watched the Disney+ production 100 times
| and know all the words to (almost ;) ) every song and
| therefore know more about that specific era of American
| history than I did until I was much older.
|
| Back to the TFA, I think it was such a runaway success
| compared to other shows because it feels like an intensely
| personal work of art and not just "let's copy paste and
| bang out another ALW formula show." There's no shortage of
| misguided efforts at for-profit art, and people scratch
| their heads wondering why their absurdist introspection of
| (fill in the blank) or the kinkade-y reboot of some hit in
| another format didn't rake in a billion dollars. The
| soundtrack is light years more listenable than most other
| musicals; that's very subjective but I think it's a
| significant part. I appreciate the overarching message of
| Hamilton, power of the pen, the hope for the future, the
| need to take smart action, the ability to recover from
| mistakes, and the inability to recover from letting pride
| override rational decision making. There's just so much
| there.
|
| One more thought on the overall economics of a show not
| discussed in the article: since shows are largely seen by
| tourists, as a tourist, there's more to the cost of the
| show than the ticket itself. The opportunity cost is the
| most expensive part, and only devoted fans of theater are
| going to see more than 1-2 shows on a tourist visit to NYC.
| If I'm going to see a show, it better be good, and I have
| little interest in risking a precious afternoon in NYC on a
| swing-and-a-miss. As such, it makes me wonder if a second
| line touring circuit is possible for very small shows to
| get exposure in other smaller cities (any other city
| besides NYC). It would almost have to be a very intensive
| 4-5 performances a day for 3-5 days in a city, with a brief
| but panoramic advert blitz at the local level. The
| equivalent of a small up and coming music group refining
| their grind and performance at college bars across the
| country before hitting it big. Digital projection of sets,
| keeping a deep bench of local stand ins available as
| needed, relatively standardized audio production
| requirements, A reciprocal agreement amongst a network of
| theaters, with a special deal with a nearby hotel in each
| market could take a lot of the load and cost off. Maybe it
| already exists.
|
| (some revisions/edits throughout)
| dehrmann wrote:
| > As such, it makes me wonder if a second line touring
| circuit is possible for very small shows to get exposure
| in other smaller cities (any other city besides NYC)
|
| Cities like SF will keep getting first national tours and
| have somewhat limited theater space, so it might not make
| sense to take shows there, but I could see it working for
| critically acclaimed shows in towns with community
| theaters and season ticket holder willing to spend $50.
| redwood wrote:
| Have you seen it? I thought it was incredible. And
| informative. And I assumed what you described before I saw
| it
| gwern wrote:
| Are you sure the target audience doesn't also find it
| cringey now? I noticed Hamilton seemed to drop out of the
| zeitgeist almost overnight at some point. It wasn't as
| precipitous as Game of Thrones's fall, perhaps, but it was
| fast. Can you imagine the Obamas saying Hamilton is the
| "best piece of art in any form that I have ever seen in my
| life" (https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/15/theater/hamilton-
| takes-a-...) today? Seems unlikely.
| dehrmann wrote:
| It certainly plays differently post George Floyd.
|
| I'm not sure how long it took for Rent to feel cringy,
| but the premise of 20-somethings trying their hardest to
| avoid getting jobs so they can continue being artists
| also didn't age well.
| tobtoh wrote:
| As someone who moonlights in the theatre industry (as a theatre
| photographer), I'm vaguely familiar with the economics of putting
| on shows - the article is very interesting and tallies with my
| experience.
|
| However, I do question one line in the article:
|
| > The average income of Broadwaygoers in 2018-19 was $261k --
| roughly 4x the median household income in the US.
|
| $261k?!? the _average_ income of attendees?!? That 's can't be
| right can it?
| throwaway55421 wrote:
| Why not?
|
| I don't know the stats in the UK, but anecdotally, everyone I
| know who regularly goes to the theatre (as opposed to
| occasionally e.g. once every year or two) isn't far off
| financial independence.
|
| Poor people will just watch it on TV.
| chii wrote:
| if there's a number of ultra-high net worth people there, it
| would push the average up, by a lot probably. Median income is
| a more representative number than average, when there would be
| outliers like that.
| tobtoh wrote:
| Oh of course. I forgot about the difference between median
| and average!
|
| For the purpose of the point the article was making in that
| section (about how the efforts to 'make Broadway more
| affordable and more democratic come up short.', the 'average'
| income seems particularly useless as a metric to gauge
| success.
|
| As you point out, the median is a much better metric.
| lotsofpulp wrote:
| I think we need a law that all data needs to be presented
| in deciles, or at least quintiles.
|
| It is incredibly annoying to know that someone had the data
| and chose to not show its distribution, when it costs them
| almost nothing to do so. I assume any use of the word
| "average" without specifying mean or median, or really any
| use of mean average, to be clickbait because there is no
| reason to use it when you know the underlying distribution
| is skewed.
| dehrmann wrote:
| As others have said, median is more interesting, but also
| remember that there's a selection bias: these are people
| traveling to or living in one of the country's most expensive
| cities.
| mbg721 wrote:
| If Jeff Bezos (in a disguise) went to one show, how long would
| it take to bring the average back down?
| krallja wrote:
| Not a hypothetical: https://pagesix.com/2021/10/11/amazons-
| jeff-bezos-has-date-n...
| sandworm101 wrote:
| How many Broadway tickets have you bought recently? Not many
| regular people can afford to go regularly. I'm not broke, but
| spending 400+ on a pair of tickets, plus other costs ... That
| is not something I would do every month.
| [deleted]
| imapeopleperson wrote:
| > union contracts
| farp wrote:
| ...determine what defines a Broadway show vs an off-Broadway
| show. Otherwise never mentioned in TFA.
| xkv wrote:
| ...codify what counts as a "Broadway" vs an "off-Broadway"
| show.
| PaulRobinson wrote:
| Not knowing what makes a hit vs a flop seems... strange.
|
| Familiar actors and stories might help, but also things that are
| clever and artistically memorable (e.g. Hamilton) have got to
| help.
|
| I'd also be interested to know how many shows start off-Broadway
| or off-off-Broadway (100-500 seats and below 100 seats as per
| this article), and move up to the bigger theatres: test a show in
| a smaller venue, see if people/critics talk about it, let supply
| build and keep production costs capped.
|
| Some might argue - especially for musicals - that you can't
| produce "good" shows without much less in the way of production
| costs, but I think that could be a fallacy. I've watched enough
| shows and plays to know when one has good "bones" that could be
| enhanced with bigger sets, better actors, etc. and which are
| going to die no matter what you do.
|
| Hamilton would have been getting talked about and supply not
| meeting demand if it was Lin-Manuel Miranda in a backroom of a
| bar in a frock coat, a small band and some acting students making
| up the rest of the cast. The bones are so good on that show -
| it's clever, musically arresting, compelling story arc, memorable
| performance from himself - that anybody who would have seen it
| would have told their friends about it the next day.
|
| Some shows need to be big at the start, but they already have
| "built-in" audiences: Lion King trades on childhood memories of
| the film, it's not hard to see why it would be a success.
|
| Spider-Man which the article touches on was always a bit of a
| gamble: it has built-in audience, but how many people think of
| the Spider-Man films _fondly_?
|
| Contrast with Back To the Future which I saw premiere in
| Manchester, UK (the toughest place to test a show in the World
| perhaps), before lockdown, and it's moved to the West End and I'd
| predict is going to be huge on Broadway. Great bones, great
| built-in audience who love revisiting the film and story
| repeatedly.
|
| Perhaps I'm in the wrong industry, but this seems so, so much
| easier than software businesses...
| Grakel wrote:
| Hamilton was workshopped for a very long time and then had a
| long Off Broadway run at The Public Theatre where additional
| changes were made. A huge amount of money went into it because
| of the trust that Lin Manuel had generated with previous work.
|
| Spiderman was in tech for over a year (beta testing) because
| the damned flying didn't work. Then they radically changed the
| script because it hadn't been workshopped, and it was still
| terrible.
|
| I would encourage you to work on a theatrical production some
| time. I think you'll find a lot of familiar difficulties,
| including insane schedules, incompetent management, project
| bloat, abuse and burnout.
| wombatmobile wrote:
| > ... insane schedules, incompetent management, project
| bloat, abuse and burnout.
|
| ... and as TFA says, financial calamities, and yet, we
| persist, and we love all of love it, and this art will never
| die.
|
| Why?
|
| It's the essence of us.
|
| Story telling is the BIOS of humanity.
| mbg721 wrote:
| People talk about network effects and how beneficial it is to
| be in Silicon Valley if you're a startup--the same thing has
| _got_ to be true about New York for on-stage performance. The
| last time I was there, I picked some random off-off-Broadway
| thing to go see for twenty bucks, in what was basically a
| hotel bar, and the quality of the acting was incredible.
| oddthink wrote:
| It's definitely true. My kids go to school very close to
| Broadway, and it seems like something like half the parents
| are in some Broadway-related jobs, from performing to
| backstage to office, a lot of them living in Manhattan
| Plaza.
|
| It's a very hit-or-miss industry, so there will be periods
| when you're not doing anything, and then you're left with
| this pool of extremely high-talent people doing small
| productions, waiting tables, and the like.
| kingcharles wrote:
| Totally. Sets and props and costumes don't necessarily add
| anything. Go to a theatre festival like the Edinburgh
| Festival and you can see dozens of amazing productions with
| amazing talent acting out of a broom closet, wearing the
| clothes they fell out of bed in that morning.
| kwertyoowiyop wrote:
| Sounds like the difference between a low-budget game that
| gets plenty of iteration and playtesting before its wide
| release, and a AAA game that gets shoved out the door for
| Christmas because the fiscal quarter depends on it.
| michaelt wrote:
| _> Not knowing what makes a hit vs a flop seems... strange._
|
| Wouldn't any formula for a hit get repeated until audiences are
| bored and it stops working?
| rwmj wrote:
| Yes. Movie screenplays are already quite formulaic, eg:
| https://slate.com/culture/2013/07/hollywood-and-blake-
| snyder...
| motoxpro wrote:
| I think it's the opposite. There are many many more multi
| million dollar software business than broadway shows, meaning
| that you have a much lower chance of success making a hit show.
| It just looks easy in hindsight because you dont see the 10s of
| thousands of shows that failed and never got picked. Even the
| "flops" are better than the shows that didn't even get picked
| up.
| epc wrote:
| I invested (way, way, way below the line) in a show which
| opened off-Broadway a few weeks ago. Had rave reviews when it
| ran outside NYC and was supposed to open in April 2020. For
| some odd reason they had to delay the opening to November 2021.
| It opened, the audience seemed to love it, but one review in
| the home town paper of record tanked it, I expect it to close
| this week or next.
|
| Off-off Broadway to Off-Broadway is doable, but the economics
| of adding that extra seat (499 to 500) and becoming a
| "Broadway" show are just unrealistic for a lot of shows.
| Different union requirements, plus the theatres impose
| different costs, and you have to raise a lot more money to open
| a Broadway show, regardless of where it's coming from (out of
| town, off/off-off, local workshop, etc).
|
| The only "off off" Broadway show I can think of that made it on
| Broadway in recent times was Hedwig (started in the Jane hotel
| bar IIRC), and that took a detour through being turned into a
| movie.
|
| If anything, investing in startups feels easier, I could have
| spread the same amount of money across multiple startups,
| figure on losing 33-50%, breaking even a bit, and having one or
| two return everything. In contrast in a musical or play you're
| gambling that the combination of director, cast, band, theatre,
| mood of the reviewers, mood of the audience will combine just
| the right way.
| lordnacho wrote:
| There's a number of these industries that seem to have a lottery-
| like element to them, where getting a ticket to the big time
| requires a bunch of things to come together.
|
| Fine-dining restaurants also "need" a chef with a name, a
| sensible location (though you can do OK many places), and some
| favorable early reviews.
|
| Hedge funds, my industry, is similar, though the real estate
| issue is not quite so pressing as for a theater.
|
| Starting your own band is also one of those where there's a big
| time where there are certain industry standards that you'll have
| to get familiar with while you work on the actual product.
|
| Common to them all is you have to bring together a certain mix of
| human capital, experience, and novelty to get the right doors to
| open. There's always kind of structure that everyone in the
| industry understands, with its own lingo and skills and important
| players that everyone knows.
|
| What they also have in common is that you can have very competent
| people who know how to do stuff that don't strike the gold.
| Everyone's heard music from highly accomplished musicians who
| aren't famous.
| massysett wrote:
| Most U.S. live theater survives only through philanthropy.
| Broadway's investor-driven model is a remarkable outlier.
| kingcharles wrote:
| This. As someone who helped to run a theatre company in the
| USA, it is incredibly hard to do it as a for-profit except at
| the very high-end, e.g. Broadway.
|
| My First Wife was an actor by career and most for-profit
| productions survive because they pay their actors so little.
| And you're only paid for performances, so those many weeks of
| rehearsals where you are perhaps driving 10 miles each way are
| going to eat up most of your income from the production.
| dehrmann wrote:
| You have to remember that musical theater is more pop-driven
| than operas, orchestras, and plays.
| kingcharles wrote:
| Poster didn't mention musical theatre, but that is a much
| easier sell to the public, IMO, than straight plays. You
| don't see many indie musicals produced though compared to say
| the number of Shakespeare productions that are probably going
| on in any city right now.
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