[HN Gopher] Apple stopped sales in Turkey after the lira crashed...
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Apple stopped sales in Turkey after the lira crashed 15% in a day
Author : quyleanh
Score : 220 points
Date : 2021-11-27 16:07 UTC (6 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.reuters.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.reuters.com)
| sharmin123 wrote:
| Facebook Hacked? 7 Things You Need To Do Right Now!:
| https://www.hackerslist.co/facebook-hacked-7-things-you-need...
| mensetmanusman wrote:
| If the US is experiencing 7% inflation, does that mean the lira
| is a net -22% relative to the dollar?
| LatteLazy wrote:
| Not in one day.
|
| And it would be 22% compared to something with a more fixed
| value (like gold). Value is stable, the USD fell 7% and the
| lira another 15% for 22% total.
|
| Looks like the lira is down 31% compared to my own currency
| (gbp) so far in 2021.
| jeffbee wrote:
| The Turkish lira has been plunging vs. the US dollar for 14 years
| straight. It has fallen by 90% in dollar terms. All foreign
| retailers must be constantly readjusting prices, right?
| mrtksn wrote:
| Actually, it was fairly stable between 2003-2013. Then the
| hardcore political stuff began happening, Erdogan won the
| political fight to become a popular autocrat assuming all power
| in 2017 by changing the constitution through a referandum then
| winning the elections - all fairly.
|
| When he got free from any checks and balances he was free to
| implement his unorthodox ideas on economics. He put his son in
| law in charge of the economy, things accelerated but he still
| had some rebels around him and they took the son in law out of
| the picture, stabilised the economy just before shit hit the
| fan. Erdogan proceeded getting rid of everyone not supportive
| of his ideas and that's when stuff actually hit the fan.
|
| BTW, there's uncovered corruption on a scale unheard in
| history. Seriously, Turks are no longer impressed by sums less
| than a billion of dollars. A mayor purchasing insurance from
| his own son for 10 million $ a year is something that will
| entertain you for a few seconds as an interesting detail, what
| keeps coming is the mayor spending 1 Billion $ on dinosaur
| statues.
| pjc50 wrote:
| The dinosaur statues made me go wtf as well:
| https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-news-from-
| elsewhere-3253591...
| mrighele wrote:
| The parent was probably talking about not that single
| statue, but a whole theme park dedicated to dinosaurs,
| which costed 750M dollars, and opened only for a few months
| (1). But a bigger (albeit cheaper) wtf in my opinion is a
| village entirely made of castle-like houses (2)
|
| (1)
| https://www.duvarenglish.com/domestic/2020/06/25/ankara-
| them... (2) https://www.insider.com/turkey-abandoned-
| disney-castles-vill...
| mrtksn wrote:
| To be fair, the hilarious castle-like houses village is a
| private investment :)
| mrighele wrote:
| You're right, I wasn't thinking about public sector only.
| seanmcdirmid wrote:
| This kind of thing is common in China. I'm not sure why
| this would seem very impressive, it isn't even on nearly
| on the same scale. It is all money laundering of course
| (or to say, transforming public money and credit into
| private money).
| recuter wrote:
| This is when in my minds eye flashed some sort of trailer for
| an as-of-yet un-produced Turkish adaption of The Wolf of Wall
| Street, hilarious hijinks on a never before seen scale
| centered around Erdogan as the surprisingly likable
| protagonist.
| bohemian99 wrote:
| They probably just readjust their currency hedges
| dsp wrote:
| > They probably just readjust their currency hedges
|
| How would you propose that work? Hedging currency risk
| against unsold product isn't a hedge, it's a directional bet.
| bellyfullofbac wrote:
| After a while, prices will just be in USD and the local price
| depends on the day's USD rate:
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29363260
|
| Similar to this, in non-Euro Romania, apartment rent prices are
| given in Euro...
| csomar wrote:
| I think it's a combination of the speed/magnitude this time.
| The TRY has been plunging for a good amount time now but it has
| been doing that regularly and with smaller adjustments. Having
| a 15% single day crash seems to have caught lots of people off-
| guard.
| dreamcompiler wrote:
| I still have a 500,000 TL note from Turkey's hyperinflation
| days in the early 2000s. Back then it was just about enough to
| buy a loaf of bread. Looks like those days are coming back.
| rvense wrote:
| I have a 50 lira bill from 2011 - I think was it about 20
| euros at the time? Should have exchanged it sooner.
| can16358p wrote:
| Just keep it and it will have antique value sooner than you
| expect.
| gbuk2013 wrote:
| I have a 100 trillion Zimbabwean dollar note, which
| apparently would buy 2 eggs at the time of issue. It's
| actually increased 10x in value since I bought it on ebay
| though. :)
| shalmanese wrote:
| Or maybe the US dollar has just deflated 10x in value
| against the only reliable store of value: used 100 trillion
| Zimbabwean notes on ebay.
| VHRanger wrote:
| Yes, but price volatility is what matters.
|
| For the same reason that low positive inflation is good, as
| long as the volatility around the inflation rate is low (so
| expected value of price is in tight ranges)
| aerovistae wrote:
| So does that mean it would be profitable to short the lira? Not
| a forex trader but it's where my mind went.
| xwdv wrote:
| No. There is very little downside left to profit on at this
| point. The time to short has already passed, there's better
| opportunities out there. Be bullish about something.
| Jabbles wrote:
| Shorting involves finding someone willing to bet the opposite
| way. If you think a pattern is obvious, other people will
| too, and that will make options expensive, reducing your
| gains.
|
| (In general.)
| seanmcdirmid wrote:
| If you can convince someone in Turkey to lend you money at
| a cheap rate, then you can pay it back later in inflated
| currency. Of course, banks generally jack up interest rates
| when inflation gets high, but sometimes they are forced not
| to (and it is usually the ruling class that is allowed to
| take advantage of those loans).
|
| In general, you can only make money on these things either
| via information asymmetry or flat out corruption.
| jeffbee wrote:
| Maybe? If you had bought USD/TRY two years ago you would have
| doubled your money by now. But the same is true if you had
| bought shares of Google. Nobody can predict the future.
| crate_barre wrote:
| You could look to short as Turkish ETF ($TUR) in the interim.
| throw3849 wrote:
| Well, I am going to Turkey for couple of months this spring.
| xhkkffbf wrote:
| If they priced them in Bitcoin.....
| xwdv wrote:
| I paid 500 bitcoins for a pizza once. Will never use Bitcoin to
| buy things again.
| xyst wrote:
| what does it feel like to eat a $27.5M pizza? haha
| xwdv wrote:
| Only ate half, threw the rest away.
| div72 wrote:
| The Central Bank of Turkey prohibited usage of cryptocurrencies
| as a payment method back in April.
| sethd wrote:
| ...they would be repricing them almost weekly.
| rvense wrote:
| *hourly
| whatever1 wrote:
| No phone would be sold because transactions take hours.
| Tenoke wrote:
| I've bought a beer ~7 years ago with btc. They just wanted
| for 1 confirmation (~10m), not that it mattered since we
| could drink in the mean time anyway.
| mensetmanusman wrote:
| When I tried to pay with btc they put mentos in my beer.
| gsich wrote:
| So? Shipping takes days.
| VWWHFSfQ wrote:
| some people still go to stores to buy things
| danlugo92 wrote:
| Lightning has instant payments. Still in beta though.
| samstave wrote:
| you can unlock this transaction in 09:44:33 or pay $144 to
| unlock it now
| brighton36 wrote:
| That's the same thing as pricing in dollars. If you haven't
| noticed, Bitcoin is as valuable as the usd/btc pair. It's why
| every bitcoiner knows what the price of Bitcoin is every day.
| david-cako wrote:
| Lira is priced in iPhone.
| savant_penguin wrote:
| Maybe they should sell it in Bitcoin and automatically trade for
| dollars
| arcticbull wrote:
| Hm, Bitcoin appears down 23% in the last 18 days, flailing
| wildly the whole time.
|
| If your concern was stability you would _obviously_ not pick
| Bitcoin haha. Maybe a nice USD or EUR price tag.
| authed wrote:
| > Maybe they should sell it in Bitcoin and *automatically
| trade for dollars*
|
| Looks like you didn't read the parent comment.
| div72 wrote:
| The Central Bank of Turkey prohibited usage of cryptocurrencies
| as a payment method back in April.
| qeternity wrote:
| Right, because although the Lira is the most volatile currency,
| a 15% one day move is a black swan. For bitcoin, it happens
| every couple of months.
| samstave wrote:
| what do you think btc's 'black swan' will be?
| ChrisClark wrote:
| China will ban it for the 17th time? (kinda sarcasm, kinda
| not)
| ComodoHacker wrote:
| Stability?
| qeternity wrote:
| It doesn't matter. Bitcoin's normal price discovery is
| volatile to the degree that only black swans are in fiat
| currencies.
| JanisL wrote:
| Its not a real black swan because it's so painfully obvious
| to anyone who's looked at it in depth but the demise of
| Tether will have an enormous impact on BTC.
| Jensson wrote:
| Next downturn when everyone wants to cash out all their
| investments at once so they can pay rent and such. BTC has
| yet to experience a downturn, I don't think it will be
| pretty.
| azth wrote:
| The large investors will buy even more.
| polote wrote:
| Why do it in Bitcoin when you can do it in Lira ?
| can16358p wrote:
| Latelt Bitcoin has been more stable than Turkish Lira,
| against USD.
| [deleted]
| jazzyjackson wrote:
| at least there is consensus on the exchange rate, even if it
| fluctuates wildly
| arcticbull wrote:
| Not if you count the OTC markets. I'm led to believe the
| prices are significantly different in any meaningful
| quantity.
| CSDude wrote:
| We were just starting a startup, and bought all computers,
| monitors, chairs, desks etc. when $/TL was around 8.5. Now one
| dollar is 12.5 TL. At least our rent for 140m2 is around 1000$ in
| a very good spot.
| weird-eye-issue wrote:
| Sorry I'm a bit confused. Isn't that a good thing you bought
| stuff when the TL was worth more?
| CSDude wrote:
| Yes, exactly. I just wanted to emphasize the increase amount
| and what we would pay if we were not fast. We saw the
| increase miles ahead and bought all the stuff out of our own
| pockets.
| Rexxar wrote:
| Are people so used that everybody complain on everything that
| positive comments cannot be understood anymore ?
| throwaway4good wrote:
| Is the cost of living (food, rent, price of a coffee at a bar
| ...) in lira going up at the same pace? Or is the inflation
| only felt in imported goods suchs computers, gasoline ...
| johaugum wrote:
| Ostensibly, goods imported and bought with USD will have
| their prices inflated, while locally produced goods and
| services should remain more or less unchanged.
|
| This also means that exported goods are effectively cheaper
| for international buyers, so export volume goes up.
| mastax wrote:
| This is felt especially acutely because most Turkish debt
| is denominated in foreign currency (~70%) and the vast
| majority of trade is as well (I remember 85% but can't find
| a source). So inflation is felt immediately.
| mrtksn wrote:
| > This also means that exported goods are effectively
| cheaper for international buyers, so export volume goes up.
|
| That's Erdogan's theory. However in reality nothing stays
| cheap because anything Turkey produces has large component
| of imports, be it energy, parts or machinery etc. because
| the country is not a petrostate.
|
| The only thing that can stay cheap is the labour but that
| labour can stay cheap only if it sees huge drop in life
| quality since the stuff the people consume(petrol, cars,
| electronics etc.) see huge price increases.
|
| You simply can't keep the wedge of a worker at 5000 when
| the iPhone prices increase from 7000 to 11000, car prices
| jump from 200K to 300K and gas from 6 to 9.
| can16358p wrote:
| > while locally produced goods and services should remain
| more or less unchanged.
|
| This is not true for Turkish Lira because EVERYTHING is
| dependent on foreign currencies at some point. For example
| local agricultural goods shouldn't be affected, but all the
| machines in production line are imported, all their
| servicing equipment are imported. If one simply goes
| unofficial (e.g. Finding someone to service their machines
| totally in Turkey), even iron is based on foreign
| currencies as almost everything is either imported or owned
| by a foreign company (as the government sold everything to
| non-Turkish entities). Fuel is also imported and is
| directly correlated with foreign currencies. At the end of
| the day, everything, even local goods, is tied to foreign
| currencies.
| Scoundreller wrote:
| > For example local agricultural goods shouldn't be
| affected
|
| Why not? Unless they're incapable of being exported
| pas wrote:
| Sure, but the added value is local, which helps exports.
| can16358p wrote:
| Yup, it helps with exports but it simply can't outweigh
| the losses from devaluation and foreign dependency.
| umeshunni wrote:
| > while locally produced goods and services should remain
| more or less unchanged.
|
| What usually happens is that since oil is denominated in
| USD, the price of fuel and transportation rises when a
| currency weakens and that increases the price of locally
| produced goods as well.
| randomluck040 wrote:
| A lot of things are getting more expensive but not at the
| same rate as e.g. electronics
| CSDude wrote:
| It used to be OK. However, recent increase and the longer
| increase with start of Covid started to amplify in all goods.
| Even bread is now 1.5/2x more expensive, restuarants are 2x
| expensive compared to 1YR, because of cascading increases in
| every industry, mostly transportation and goods. For
| instance, the wood for the kitchen is increased almost 3x in
| 6 months according to our guy.
|
| Tech workers are mostly in good spot, (great if working
| remote). However, in Turkey, minimum wage is almost average
| wage. I feel very bad for most people, and try to give anyway
| I can.
|
| Car prices are ridicolous. I could almost buy a Tesla Plaid
| in US at the price of a BMW 320 here. But it's due to high
| taxes. These taxes were introduced in the '99 earthquake,
| meant to be temporary. But those taxes are everywhere, named
| like "Luxury Consumption Tax".
| jopsen wrote:
| > But those taxes are everywhere, named like "Luxury
| Consumption Tax".
|
| Are those taxes effectively targeting products that are
| imported?
|
| It's classic trick to improve the trade deficit.. I would
| guess that getting rid of them would only further crags the
| currency.
| pasabagi wrote:
| I think in general luxury goods taxes are underexploited.
| People normally want to buy expensive things so they can
| show off how much money they have. May as well make them
| more expensive, and divert some of that cash to useful
| purposes.
| jopsen wrote:
| Maybe... My point was that often these taxes are actually
| targeting imports, and not necessarily "luxuries".
|
| Well, that also depends on how you define luxuries :)
|
| I personally don't mind taxes, but consumption taxes,
| even on "luxury items" are generally likely to be
| regressive in nature. So maybe don't use them...
| pasabagi wrote:
| >likely to be regressive
|
| I'm not sure. I was just looking for some points of
| comparison, and as far as I can gather, tampon tax (the
| standout example for regressive luxury taxation) wasn't
| actually a luxury tax, but rather a tax on 'unnecessary'
| items. Which is - ech - but, you know, it's not an extra
| tax.
|
| I think explicit taxes on higher-price items within
| categories (so like, expensive cars) would be kinda nice,
| because it avoids all of the fiddly questions over what
| is and isn't an luxury item.
| mrtksn wrote:
| > Are those taxes effectively targeting products that are
| imported?
|
| Nope, pretty much anything that is not deemed basic
| biological need has some amount of Luxury Consumption
| Tax, or OTV.
|
| Alcohol, electronics, cars, fuel ,communication services,
| communication devices, cola and similar drinks, cosmetic,
| newspapers etc.
|
| The rate and the items will change all the time.
| Especially for the fuel, it's used as a buffer to keep
| gas prices stable as the Turkish lira and oil prices
| fluctuate. Currently the luxury tax on gas and diesel is
| 0 because they gradually reduced it to keep the price
| somewhat stable as the oil prices soar and the Turkish
| lira falls. When the oil prices were low and the lira was
| strong, Turkey had the most expensive fuel prices in the
| world. Currently, it's the cheapest in Europe.
| pengaru wrote:
| Through this lens "supply chain problems" starts looking like a
| rather convenient scapegoat for preventing consumers from
| purchasing your wares before their currency becomes realized as
| worth less and your prices go up accordingly.
|
| This is effectively what's happened with my inability to buy an
| IKEA table for months... it was constantly out of stock, and it's
| still out of stock, but its price has increased 15% from when I
| first attempted buying.
| ivalm wrote:
| Except it is the other way around, currency becomes worth less
| because people are willing to exchange more of it for the same
| item (eg ikea table). Demand -> inflation.
| masa331 wrote:
| I have a solution for you. Buy a table somewhere else
| colechristensen wrote:
| Well there was an incredible increase in the price of wood for
| a while there (futures tripled normal prices for a while there)
| from both the supply and demand side (not to mention labor and
| shipping concerns). If you're Ikea you can either double your
| prices or severely limit production.
|
| You say "convenient scapegoat", but I think people were going
| to be mad about something regardless of how Ikea responded.
| Zenst wrote:
| Question is - if/when the lira rises 15% (#1), will Apple respond
| as timely to adjust prices cheaper? Mindful that companies are
| quick to point to a reason to increase prices yet when that same
| reason goes the other way, not so quick (if ever) to adjust down.
|
| Is Black Friday sales a thing in Turkey? As can imagine many who
| would of banked to buy then, only to get hit with the polar
| opposite in this instance.
|
| #1 - (maybe in a day with things settling out, dunno about
| specific reasons for the crash but mindful the whole Omicron dram
| and market magnification/snowball effect could be factor here as
| been so with some share prices past few days).
| geraneum wrote:
| The Black Friday is definitely a thing in Turkey. It might
| surprise you that Black Friday is big even in Iran (Turkey's
| neighbor).
| qsort wrote:
| I mean, it's not Apple's fault Turkey's currency is unstable.
| Why would it be their responsibility to take the exchange risk?
| I wouldn't be surprised if in response to future events like
| this they stopped accepting payments denominated in TRY
| altogether.
| Traster wrote:
| A perfectly reasonable thing for Apple to do would be to buy
| foreign exchange options to hedge out the risk of currency
| fluctatuions, passing the cost on to consumers. So it'll cost
| a percent or two more in the price of a new Apple product,
| but that means Apple isn't exposed to risk of currency
| fluctuations. Having said that, Apple is probably a big
| enouhg company to just accept the risk itself and not pay for
| options to hedge that risk.
| londons_explore wrote:
| If apple do this, people will make use of the price
| difference and resell Turkish goods in the rest of the
| world for a profit.
| reaperducer wrote:
| It's been a few years since I was in Turkey, but at the time,
| most stores took Euros. And street vendors even preferred it.
|
| However, whether Apple is allowed to use Euros for the retail
| prices in store or not may be a legal matter. There are
| plenty of countries where it's illegal not to price and sell
| in the government's preferred currency.
| trentearl wrote:
| I've lived in turkey for 3 years and I've only seen this
| with expensive imported bicycles.
| mrtksn wrote:
| Apple usually lags a bit in both directions. During the
| previous fluctuations Apple again had a period of extremely
| cheep prices, then raised the prices to match the dollar value
| and once the lira stabilised a bit they adjusted the prices
| again. In general, Apple gives quite a bit of buffer before
| adjusting the prices.
| can16358p wrote:
| I don't think so, and I don't remember that ever happening.
| Turkish Lira has always been devaluating. Black Friday is a
| thing here (with a different name but basically the same thing)
| but things were already at a skyrocketed price that only some
| items just went down to a "still expensive but sane" level.
| quitit wrote:
| Companies can't be competitive, nor reach sales goals when
| prices are artificially high. Similarly they also lose sales to
| neighbouring countries - making price consistency important.
|
| Despite it not fitting the evil megacorp narrative, good
| business requires prices to follow the currency changes - but
| not super tightly as that's also harmful to business and
| consumers alike. Each company establishes their product margin
| and excess to that is not desirable - lost sales are invariably
| more costly than a small % gain in margin.
|
| The other issue is that currencies usually drop quickly but
| recover slowly, it takes time to undo the instability in the
| currency and then attract investment to strengthen the
| currency. In the case of Turkey it's due to their recent
| decisions to lower interest rates despite soaring inflation
| (the opposite of good fiscal policy). This will absolutely
| prevent any kind of bounce happening and psychological barriers
| to the currency have already been passed - meaning the currency
| (and with that the population) is likely to suffer further.
| kube-system wrote:
| > if/when the lira rises 15% (#1), will Apple respond as timely
| to adjust prices cheaper? Mindful that companies are quick to
| point to a reason to increase prices yet when that same reason
| goes the other way, not so quick (if ever) to adjust down.
|
| I certainly don't ask to have my wage lowered in months where
| inflation is negative. I'm not sure why anyone would ever
| negotiate against themselves. Apple will lower prices if their
| customers demonstrate they are not willing to buy at the
| offered price.
| FpUser wrote:
| >"I certainly don't ask to have my wage lowered in months
| where inflation is negative."
|
| 1) How often does that happen? 2) This is very hypocritical.
| People ask for things what benefit them. Why the fuck they
| should worry about corporations. If corps have problems it is
| up to them go and "ask".
| kube-system wrote:
| 1. Most recently in the US, half of 2015 and most of 2009.
|
| 2. That's my point. Apple is looking out for Apple. I look
| out for me. If Apple can get a higher price, they're going
| to stick with it if they can. Same as I would with a higher
| wage.
| ehsankia wrote:
| > will Apple respond as timely to adjust prices cheaper?
|
| Well in one case you have arbitrage and are actively losing
| money, in the other case you are potentially losing sales due
| to the product being too expensive. So no I don't expect as
| Swift of an action.
| mdp2021 wrote:
| > _if /when the lira rises 15%_
|
| (Sure it is just an expression, but: here is a reminder that is
| something falls 15%, it recovers previous state through gaining
| ~17.5%; if it falls 20%, it needs to increase 25%; if it falls
| 50%, it then has to double...)
| Aperocky wrote:
| > if/when the lira rises 15%
|
| Turkey currently have negative forex, it won't happen.
|
| A fiat currency that have lost all market confidence, it's not
| going anywhere but down.
| bellyfullofbac wrote:
| During the Asian economic crash from 1998s, things like PC
| parts were priced in USD, and to get the local price, the
| shopkeeper would multiply the day's USD rate with the
| gadget's price, and show you the price on her calculator...
| but 2 decades later the currencies of the region have
| stabilized enough that this is no longer the case.
| greendesk wrote:
| That is a big 'if'.
|
| If the currency changes rapidly, it will have effects across
| the supply chain.
|
| On sales during Black Friday / Black Weekend / Cyber Monday -
| this type of sales become common across multiple countries,
| including Turkey. But not nearly as famous.
| ryanlol wrote:
| If Turkey is anything like eastern Europe, I'd be pretty
| confident that the people buying Apple stuff don't have their
| salaries or bank accounts denominated in Lira.
|
| For example in Ukraine anything that matters is priced in USD
| WanderPanda wrote:
| Even wages?
| ryanlol wrote:
| In countries where you can't trust the local currency, this
| is normal, yeah. You wouldn't want your work suddenly
| devalued by 15%
| spdionis wrote:
| Especially wages. At least for the industries where workers
| are in a position to demand.
|
| A tech job that offer in local currency gets laughed out of
| the room around here.
| mensetmanusman wrote:
| Are people using btc because of the threat from Russia?
| ryanlol wrote:
| What? You're gonna need to expand on that.
| hourislate wrote:
| Hyper inflation drives people to buy goods that can be resold
| later for more. This happened in CCCP while it was falling apart.
| People would show up with all their money every morning at their
| local stores, buying whatever was available no matter what it
| was. They could resell it later for more money (effort to
| preserve the value of the currency they held). Apple products are
| a safe bet as they typically hold on to their value well, are
| small and convenient to hang onto (refrigerators are more
| difficult), and can be sold abroad, etc.
| eterm wrote:
| It's very odd to write CCCP in an otherwise english paragraph
| in latin alphabet. YOu would be better understood to write USSR
| or better just write Soviet Union.
|
| (For those unfamiliar, CCCP is SSSR in cyrillic alphabet).
| servercobra wrote:
| Ah thank you! I was thinking China but that's CCP. I was
| wondering if I was missing something from history.
| harpiaharpyja wrote:
| If you stop to think about it yes it is pretty odd, but
| enough people do this that I don't have to think twice when I
| see it. You'd definitely wouldn't see it in formal writing,
| but informally it's not uncommon. A quirk of cross-cultural
| transmission maybe?
| colechristensen wrote:
| I think it's more often subtle morality/superiority
| signaling by calling an entity by a different name.
|
| Think Republicans referring to the "Democrat party" instead
| of the "Democratic" or people using "CCP" instead of
| "China".
| MrMorden wrote:
| "China" can refer to any number of different things;
| "CCP" only refers to the Party.
| sigstoat wrote:
| ...do you not make a distinction between "china" and the
| chinese communist party?
|
| i think even the CCP itself does.
| CoastalCoder wrote:
| I grew up in the US in the 1970s and 1980s. We usually used
| the term "USSR", but I think most of us recognized "CCCP" as
| the Russian equivalent.
| mixmastamyk wrote:
| Yes, believe it was on their jackets at the Olympics.
| That's where I learned it.
| toyg wrote:
| Folklore: in Italy, at the time the USSR was a real
| football power (Euro finalist etc), CCCP was often used
| for kids jokes as meaning "Col Cazzo Che Perdiamo" ("we
| ain't fucking losing").
| stefan_ wrote:
| Whats stopping people to exchange their money for euros or
| dollars? It's a popular tourist destination, after all.
| GekkePrutser wrote:
| Even here in Europe this is a thing now because they seem
| intent on making our money worthless with negative interest
| rates. As a consumer I have very little financial confidence
| left.
| crate_barre wrote:
| So, is Turkey and Venezuela the two major countries that are
| actively going through a currency crisis?
|
| What are they doing that's so different from everyone else? Drop
| interest rates, print more money.
|
| I don't know what Erdogan's plan is, but unless they find strong
| export partners, devaluing the currency isn't going to work out.
| We expect everything coming out of Turkey to be cheaper now, but
| who's buying (importing)?.
| JanisL wrote:
| In the modern world we primarily have banking systems that are
| based on fractional reserve banking and currencies without any
| explicit backing. This means that from a forex point of view
| the currencies are only worth as much as there is confidence in
| them. (National currencies often derive power in a practical
| sense due to taxes having to be paid in those currencies even
| without any explicit backing of the currencies value). Because
| of these dynamics if everyone were to try to withdraw their
| money from the bank at the same time there would be a major
| problem because the banks don't have the money to cover it. An
| event that makes people in a country all want to withdraw their
| money will cause a crisis just about everywhere at the moment.
| Sure you'll get people from the central bank saying they can
| create enough money to pay everyone out, which they can pretty
| easily do due to the fact that most money now is just entries
| in a database. But the problem in all modern banking crisis
| situations isn't so much the act of giving people money its
| what you can buy with that money. (A caveat, when things get
| really bad like they did in Venezuela the currency degraded so
| much that the government had problems paying for the printing
| and transport of new banknotes with even more zeros, but that's
| a rather exceptional case that occurred very late in a crisis,
| again the money was buying less)
|
| Banking crisis conditions can come about for a variety of
| different reasons but they all involve some lack of confidence
| in the ability to be able to exchange money for goods at a
| later point in time. This can come about because people aren't
| able to access their money in the banks (Eg Cyprus crisis) or
| because the value of the money is rapidly deteriorating (Eg
| Yugoslavian Hyperinflation) or because there's some event that
| devalues the currency. This is by no means an exhaustive list,
| but it shows that different things in different places can
| cause crisis situations to emerge. There's some interesting
| work that was done by the Bank of International Settlements
| about the early warning indicators for systemic banking crises.
| Seeing what was happening in Turkey inspired me to write about
| bank bail ins. Along with bail outs this is something that
| you'll likely see in banking crises. More detail about the
| early warning indicators and bail in mechanisms here:
| https://www.lesinskis.com/bank-bail-ins.html
|
| I also talk about this in the article but I don't think it's
| easy to neatly determine where currency crisis situations
| "start". There's at least 14 countries in the world that are in
| what could be the early stages of a banking and currency crisis
| but it's likely that people will only say they are in a crisis
| at a much later stage where the problems are so big they are
| impossible to ignore. Other places like Canada get ignored
| routinely but the situation there could rather easily turn into
| a major crisis unless something changes there.
| ClumsyPilot wrote:
| "fractional reserve banking"
|
| It's a good post, you are correct in that we have a floating
| exchange rate, but we haven't had fractional reserve banking
| for decades.
|
| https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-.
| ..
| mrighele wrote:
| > What are they doing that's so different from everyone else?
|
| Erdogan thinks that high interest rates causes higher
| inflation, while it is generally agreed that it's the other way
| around, so every time that he speaks in public and says that
| the rates will fall (the Central Bank is nominally independent,
| but in practice will do what he wants) or the CB follow on his
| promise, the markets react accordingly. The last crash was one
| of such cases.
|
| I think the official rates are about 15%, with an official
| inflation of 19% (in practice it's at least double, so much
| that when the government announced new prices for a number of
| taxes and fines, they were increased by more that 35%), and a
| Lira that lost half of its value in a years, who is going to
| buy Turkish currency ?
| lotsofpulp wrote:
| >What are they doing that's so different from everyone else?
| Drop interest rates, print more money.
|
| Having an even more dysfunctional government with leaders that
| cannot be trusted. Currency is only worth as much as the people
| using it can produce desired goods/services.
| adam_arthur wrote:
| Erdogan has been pushing for lower rates despite high
| inflation. Also believe he fired a few of the central bank
| chiefs.
| dekhn wrote:
| Um. Please go do a little research about Venezuela's situation
| before proposing a simple, wrong solution. They have badly
| mismanaged their financial and political situation for a long
| time and are not equipped to make the necessary changes to
| remedy this (whether the answer be "print more money").
|
| If you'd like to know more about their situation, I recommend
| reading "The Prize" and "The Quest". Much of the root of their
| problems come from nationalizing their oil industry and
| subsidizing local oil, although that's not the entire
| explanation.
| anticodon wrote:
| Wouldn't stealing all the foreign assets of Venezuela by US
| and UK also affect the Venezuela economy?
| simonh wrote:
| Freezing, not stealing, because the chances those assets
| would be used for the actual benefit of Venezuelans is
| pretty much zero. They will be returned when Venezuela has
| a legitimate government.
| mysecretaccount wrote:
| This is propaganda. The US sanctioned Venezuela to
| because they do not want anyone in their sphere of
| influence nationalizing important export industries like
| oil.
| aunty_helen wrote:
| Very rightous of the US. Getting to decide who does and
| doesn't get to self govern.
| lotsofpulp wrote:
| Opposing parties choose to come to the US for that very
| reason. They trust the US courts to uphold contracts more
| justly relative to other jurisdictions. The US's trust is
| it's most important asset.
| CyanBird wrote:
| > They will be returned when Venezuela has a legitimate
| government.
|
| ??? They have had all this time, it is them who do abroad
| visits and diplomacy with CARICOM
|
| It is only anglosphere the ones that don't want to
| recognize Venezuela
| rsj_hn wrote:
| > Wouldn't stealing all the foreign assets of Venezuela by
| US and UK also affect the Venezuela economy?
|
| There are a number of things wrong with this statement.
|
| 1. Timing is off. The U.S. didn't freeze Venezuelan assets
| until 2019 after Chavez died and the economy had already
| collapsed.
|
| 2. $342 Million in cash was frozen and 1.1. million barrels
| of oil were seized, the rationale being that this was a
| small dent to offset the amount of Western assets that
| Venezuela nationalized without compensation.
|
| 3. For years before the US responded, Venezuela
| nationalized foreign investment in its oil industry, gold
| mining, agriculture, telecomm, banking, auto manufacturing,
| paper products, Satellite communication, pharmaceuticals,
| and many other industries - most seized without
| compensation. Prior to the 2019 action, the US basically
| left foreign investors without recourse, as they had to
| file lawsuits in courts in order to try to obtain
| compensation.
|
| The value of the foreign assets seized by Venezuela far
| exceeds the value of Venezuelan foreign holdings seized in
| response.
|
| The real problem for Venezuela is the flight of human
| capital by those with skills. Venezuela lacks the skilled
| workers to operate the industries it has nationalized,
| which is part of the reason for the economic collapse - the
| other part being simply the usual effect of socialism on
| reducing productivity due to the breakdown of the price-
| system.
| mysecretaccount wrote:
| > The value of the foreign assets seized by Venezuela far
| exceeds the value of Venezuelan foreign holdings seized
| in response.
|
| This sounds wrong. Do you have a source?
| rsj_hn wrote:
| Why does it sound wrong? Just off the top of my head (not
| an exhaustive list), Venezuela was ordered to pay $1.6
| Billion to compensate Exxon in 2007[1] (and that doesn't
| include Conoco-Phillips or other oil and gas companies).
| Of course that payment was never made, as Venezuela paid
| only $255 million.
|
| But that's just one case.
|
| Solely in Oil and Gas, Venezuela nationalized $30 Billion
| worth of investment in 2007, and paid out only $1
| Billion.[3]
|
| You can read more in this 2012 summary[3]
|
| Of course there were many more nationalizations after
| 2012, e.g. the GM plant they seized in 2017[4]. You can
| do your own googling for more fun about everthing from
| DishTV to telecom equipment, gold mines, etc. Venezuela
| seized virtually all foreign investment in the country.
| They owe the international community a huge debt. The
| diversion of those 4 tanker ships and freezing a couple
| hundred million is just the first of many, many payments
| that Venezuela needs to make.
|
| See also https://tennesseestar.com/2020/01/14/eight-
| industries-venezu...
|
| [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-
| exxon/venezuela...
|
| [2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-
| exxonmobil-idUS...
|
| [3] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-
| election-nation...
|
| [4] https://money.cnn.com/2017/04/20/news/gm-venezuela-
| plant-sei...
| crate_barre wrote:
| Why is Venezuela using the dollar? Why's it trying to use
| Bitcoin now? I don't think they have a clue what to do,
| might be the simplest explanation.
| rsj_hn wrote:
| The dollar holdings that were seized were used by
| Venezuela for purpose of purchasing imports and also
| funds squirreled away by various government officials. My
| assumption is that it was the latter that was the main
| motivation as the U.S. is trying to squeeze the
| government. This is similar to freezing assets of certain
| Russian officials.
|
| Venezuela has shifted to a semi-barter system sending oil
| to Cuba in exchange for doctors and military
| personnel/secret police who can fight the domestic rebels
| - even the enforcement of authoritarianism is being
| outsourced to more competent nations.
|
| Venezuela is a poster boy for technical incompetence - a
| warning lesson to any nation that thinks they can
| eliminate their professional and managerial classes while
| still remaining a functional society. This should serve
| as a warning sign to many (myself included) who think the
| PMC class is the heart of our current troubles.
|
| Cuba, on the other hand, still maintains technical
| expertise in several areas. They still have a functioning
| medical/biotech/military complex, at least when it comes
| to small arms and intelligence. They can still provide
| electricity, roads, schools, and they are not starving,
| either.
|
| Yet Cuba has been the subject of much greater boycotts
| than Venezuela, so it really does boil down to human
| capital and effective administration. Cuba still has
| some, but Venezuela no longer does. I think understanding
| this difference is very important.
| tastyfreeze wrote:
| Lebanon as well.
| colechristensen wrote:
| You don't get runaway inflation if the value of your imports is
| somewhere in the neighborhood of the value of your exports (a
| fairly large imbalance is fine).
|
| You do get runaway inflation when your import needs far exceed
| your export ability, you print money but prices rise
| continually faster than you print, regardless of how fast you
| print.
| delabay wrote:
| You're forgetting Lebanon
| roperzh wrote:
| You can safely add Argentina to the list
| bserge wrote:
| Why don't they just sell in Euro/USD? That's what people did a
| few decades ago a bit further north, when the local currency
| wasn't trusted (even if it was rather stable).
|
| But yeah, inflation in Eastern Europe is pretty bad, and if you
| voted for a bunch of dumb assholes who don't care about you or
| the nation, you're multifucked.
| davedx wrote:
| I worked for an e-commerce site that sold cars in Turkey in
| Euros. Sometime in 2018 I think it was, Erdogan made a new law
| that said everything had to be traded in Lira.
| AdrianB1 wrote:
| There are ways to go around. Last year I bought a car (not in
| Turkey, but very close) and the price was in EURO converted
| to local currency at the rate of the last payment. I ordered
| with a downpayment and I got it 3 months later (supply chain
| slowness) and I paid in local currency the converted price of
| that day. The car was not sold in EURO, but the price was
| linked to it.
| lostlogin wrote:
| > pretty bad, and if you voted for a bunch of dumb assholes who
| don't care about you or the nation, you're multifucked.
|
| The vote tally and the resulting leader are not necessarily
| related in these places.
| tsimionescu wrote:
| Where in Eastern Europe do you think elections were stolen by
| invalid vote counting?
| blfr wrote:
| How did Turkey find its way to Eastern Europe?
| guythedudebro wrote:
| Through Greece and the Balkans
| cheschire wrote:
| It bridges Europe and Asia and geographically considered a
| part of both, according to wiki.
| fnord77 wrote:
| cool thing about Istanbul is it spans two continents, too.
| AdrianB1 wrote:
| It is technically partly in Europe and in Balkans, but the
| common use of Eastern Europe does not include Turkey.
| davidw wrote:
| It shares land borders with Bulgaria and Greece.
| dsjoerg wrote:
| Part of the country is literally in Eastern Europe, the part
| west of the Bosphorous. Istanbul is half Europe, half Asia.
| csomar wrote:
| Half of their "capital" is in Europe. They used to own some
| of the E.E. countries before the Ottoman fell.
| yusucan wrote:
| No it's not. Istanbul is not the capital, Ankara is.
| csomar wrote:
| That's why I put it in quotes. Ankara is the political
| capital while Istanbul is the financial, industrial, and
| anything really capital.
| umanwizard wrote:
| A bit like NYC vs. Washington in the US.
| toyg wrote:
| Or Rio de Janeiro vs Brasilia in Brazil. Sydney vs
| Canberra in Australia. Auckland vs Wellington in New
| Zealand. There are probably a few more...
| ardacinar wrote:
| More like two thirds of it, by the way.
| mistrial9 wrote:
| you are thinking about the Ottoman times here?
| Keyframe wrote:
| Same reason you cannot pay in euros in US. Lira is a legal
| tender. Company can peg prices internally to a spot rate to
| whatever, but if exchange turns to fast volatility, what else
| can you do?
| AdrianB1 wrote:
| There is no law preventing one to sell in Euro in US and
| there is no law mandating a seller to accept USD as payment.
| "Legal tender" does not mean what most people think.
| Keyframe wrote:
| That's quite a fantasy there.
| haneefmubarak wrote:
| You have to ultimately pay taxes in USD and have to
| accept settlement for debts in USD, but otherwise you're
| free to accept anything else you'd like, really.
| Keyframe wrote:
| That's quite a difference than compared to most, if not
| all, european countries. There are certain exceptions for
| outside.of borders payments, but even then local and
| legal currency has to be accounted. Retail no way.
| tsimionescu wrote:
| A supermarket could refuse to sell you something unless you
| pay in Mario coins, but I beleive a restaurant is forced to
| accept your dollars to settle the bill you incurred for the
| food, and can't insist you pay your bill in Fallout
| Bottlecaps. Is this right?
| AdrianB1 wrote:
| As long as they tell in advance (before you order), they
| can have any rules like any contract. It is extremely
| rare to have weird rules, but more common sense ones like
| "exact change or card only", "card only" are fairly
| common.
| andrewaylett wrote:
| This quite possibly varies by jurisdiction, but at least
| in the UK they _do_ have to take legal tender in the GP
| 's case. In a restaurant where one pays after receiving
| the food and a petrol station where one pays after
| receiving the fuel, you have no way to give back what
| you've taken and leaving without paying is illegal. So
| while it would be foolish of the retailer to attempt to
| refuse payment in local currency, if you try to pay in
| legal tender then they are obliged to accept.
|
| Having said all that, the largest denomination that's
| legal tender where I am (Scotland) is PS1, filling up
| with fuel today cost me PS100, and I'm not in the habit
| of carrying around that much loose change.
|
| Also, it's absolutely the case that a store where you
| receive the goods after paying for them may accept (or
| decline) whatever they choose. Many shops on Edinburgh's
| High Street, for example, have signs in their windows
| saying they are quite happy to accept Euros or Dollars.
| Not that you'll get a particularly good exchange rate,
| mind.
| ulzeraj wrote:
| Probably some forced course laws that demands prices be defined
| in local currency.
|
| If you ever lived in countries with irresponsible central banks
| like Brazil or Argentina you'll notice there are often laws to
| dissuade you from using the crappy local currency.
| isbvhodnvemrwvn wrote:
| Soeme of developers in Ukraine are paid in USD or EUR for this
| reason.
| pmontra wrote:
| Is like to hear about this from somebody living in Turkey but
| maybe shop prices must be in Lira. I don't even know if in my
| country it's mandatory for physical shops to display prices in
| Euro or if a price could be only in Dollars.
| rvense wrote:
| Certainly in my country you have to accept our own currency.
| Cash is mandatory too, although that's just a matter of a
| years.
| umanwizard wrote:
| Even if you have to quote prices in lira, could they
| internally model the price in euros or dollars and adjust the
| lira price multiple times a day if necessary? I've heard that
| this is what most shopkeepers did during the hyperinflation
| in Yugoslavia (with German marks as the reference currency).
| mrighele wrote:
| I don't know about shop prices, but it used to be possible to
| make contracts in EUR or USD, especially when loans in those
| currencies were involved.
|
| For example if a company would build a shopping center using
| loans in EUR, and then would rent the shops in EUR.
|
| This practice has been banned, I think at the time of the
| previous currency crisis (2018) and now prices must be in
| local currency
| gandalfian wrote:
| Cheapest Netflix country often. Must now be even better. UK
| scroungers often use a VPN to switch their payments to the
| Turkish Netflix while watching in the UK. Makes it half price.
| Kognito wrote:
| This is a few days out of date now. Sales have already resumed
| with prices adjusted accordingly.
| rdtwo wrote:
| How long did it take them? Could you have gone in bought a ton
| of stock at old prices and gotten at least some of your 15%
| back? Apple stuff resells pretty well
| kadoban wrote:
| If you knew in advance that it was going to crash, there's
| better ways to profit more directly. If you didn't, seems
| unlikely you'd be ready to capitalize.
|
| Besides, not sure how it works in Turkey, but most places at
| least: retailers can cancel orders for little to no reason,
| if you bought a bunch of crap right before such an event, I
| bet they'd cancel it.
| mrtksn wrote:
| Apple apparently canceled some orders, the social media was
| full of people complaining about it however the laws don't
| allow you to cancel orders just like that(when you order
| something the company and the customers are obligated to
| sign purchasing agreements that provides ether party with
| rights and obligations) and many people were quite
| motivated to sue Apple. Some contacted Apple and the
| official response was that the cancellations are due to
| unrelated reasons.
|
| Turkish consumer protection laws are not bad, there are
| arbitration tribunals and consumer courts that quickly and
| cheaply resolve that kind of disputes. People use these all
| the time.
|
| My brother snapped an iPad Air for the equivalent of 450$
| and is expecting the delivery anytime now.
| mrtksn wrote:
| The USD$ went from 9.50 to 12.50 in a month and I believe the
| last adjustment they did was at 8.5. Apple had 2 days of no
| online sales but the sales in the shops continued until the
| inventory depleted.
|
| I was also going to grab a Macbook Pro when the price dropped
| below the US price but I wasn't decisive enough and missed
| the opportunity. I bet a lot of people bought MacBooks just
| to re-sell.
|
| An interesting detail, in Turkey they are allowed to sell
| laptops with only Turkish keyboard layouts due to some law on
| protecting the language. Only German and Arabic layouts are
| excepted due to some trade agreements.
|
| On the iPhones, the Turkish prices are never good due to very
| high taxation(about half of the price is tax). Turkey even
| pioneered the IMEI registration process where you can't use
| foreign device for longer than a few month in Turkey. If you
| like to bring a device from abroad, you need to register the
| device and pay a hefty registration fee and you can do it
| only once in two years. Officially, the registration is to
| prevent terrorist from using the devices as burners. The fee
| was 10 liras at the beginning but now it's over 2000.
| geoduck14 wrote:
| >Turkey even pioneered the IMEI registration process where
| you can't use foreign device for longer than a few month in
| Turkey.
|
| This is a cool fact!
| AdamJacobMuller wrote:
| I remember the process of getting a SIM in turkey was
| super annoying.
|
| I had to physically go to a store where they needed BOTH
| of our passports and a second form of ID (so had to go
| back to the hotel and return with my traveling companion)
| and a decent 30 minute process of entering our
| information into databases and making copies of IDs.
| Compare that to most countries where I can either
| trivially pop into a local store and pick up a prepaid
| sim in a few minutes, or, for most of my travel I can
| have them shipped to me at home in advance so I can land
| in country with a local sim.
|
| Istanbul was worth it though.
| mrtksn wrote:
| Devices, SIM cards and identities must be matched in
| Turkey, so that nobody does anything naughty. They also
| make the service providers keep tower signal logs worth
| of many years, so it's common to prove your whereabouts
| in courts by requesting these logs.
|
| On the plus side, you can see and manage all your data
| from the government portal. It's rather convenient to be
| able to see all the subscriptions(GSM, TV and so on) on
| your name and cancel them from there if you wish.
| Totalitarian control has its perks.
| sushsjsuauahab wrote:
| >So that nobody does anything naughty
|
| Ah yes, now I know why all of those shootings and mass
| murders happened in the Turkish airport-- there was no
| system for mapping identities to SIM cards!!
|
| https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Ataturk_Airport_atta
| ck
| mrtksn wrote:
| The security aspect was more of a pretext to force people
| purchase the heavily taxed officially imported mobile
| phones.
|
| Obviously, the usefulness against prevention of such
| attacks would be limited, it's more about identifying the
| offenders. It's also useful for surveillance, as you
| would expect a totalitarian state would like.
| throw3849 wrote:
| You have to buy sim at airport, there is an exception
| from this registration, it is easy.
| mrtksn wrote:
| Are you sure about that? Maybe the process is streamlined
| for tourists but I doubt that they are not taking a copy
| of your passport.
|
| In fact, I Googled for tourist SIMS from the Turkish GSM
| operators and they mention[0] that to purchase a tourist
| SIM a foreign passport is required.
|
| [0] https://m.turkcell.com.tr/en/aboutus/traveling-
| turkey/local-...
| throw3849 wrote:
| Of course they will take your passport. First time I
| bought sim in store, it was illegal to use foreign
| phones, and shop owner had to fake his IMEI. Airports
| never had this restrictions or asked for IMEI.
| mrtksn wrote:
| AFAIK foreign IMEI was never illegal in Turkey. The
| registration requirement started in 2011, before that you
| could just pop a local SIM and use it.
|
| Any IMEI can be registered within a specific
| timeframe(they change it from time to time but it's
| usually 3 weeks to 12 months) or the GSM operator will
| deny service to your device. It could be that you missed
| your deadline because to register an IMEI you need to do
| it within certain timeframe after you enter the country,
| there was even a business of paying tourist to use their
| passports for registering IMEI of black market imports.
|
| Those who legally import phones for sale in Turkey also
| register the IMEI of every device but at different and
| much lower rates than the individual registrations(they
| pay other taxes).
| throw3849 wrote:
| Interesting, this was 2014, perhaps clerk did it to save
| me money for device registration.
|
| Now I just use my EU data plan, it has enough data for
| short stays.
| mrtksn wrote:
| That's probably it. Instead of you paying this ridiculous
| registration fee, the clerk probably offered you a cloned
| Turkish IMEI. That's another popular workaround!
| stjohnswarts wrote:
| I definitely like using turkey as an example of how
| quickly a relatively healthy democracy can turn into an
| opressive theocratic regime when pointing out how close
| the USA became a similar nation just this past year and
| warning friends to not be complacent in upcoming election
| cycles.
| baybal2 wrote:
| It definitely is a good example of such. A good example
| of such after 20 years of the West quietly cheering for
| such outcome.
|
| Turkeys' EU accession plan went nowhere, despite Turkey
| being genuinely serious for years on end.
|
| Western capitals were dead silent during the 2016 coup
| attempt.
| ryanlol wrote:
| > Turkeys' EU accession plan went nowhere, despite Turkey
| being genuinely serious for years on end.
|
| Only the Turks are to blame for this. Maybe they were
| serious, but they did a shit job.
|
| Had Turkey quit their bullshit regarding Cyprus, things
| would probably have gone very differently. Turkey has no
| legitimate claim to any of Cyprus, as evidenced by
| literally nobody wanting to live in the Turkish
| controlled shithole.
|
| From a purely pragmatic point of view it's hard to
| imagine a world in which northern Cyprus is genuinely
| worth more to Turkey than EU membership would be.
| mrtksn wrote:
| > Western capitals were dead silent during the 2016 coup
| attempt.
|
| Yeah, and for the better. The coup attempt is very
| controversial and it's not good guys vs bad guys
| situation.
|
| To be fair, the west cheered for Erdogan up until Erdogan
| completely abandoned his initial positions. Later, the
| west simply worked with Turkey and Erdogan was properly
| elected through the years.
|
| What the West was supposed to do? Invade Turkey?
| Assassinate the politician who consistently got about %50
| of the vote of the Turks on elections with no less than
| %85 voter turnaround?
|
| Foreign influence cannot solve local problems.
| HWR_14 wrote:
| * What the West was supposed to do? Invade Turkey? *
|
| Apply economic and political pressure. Threaten their
| standing in NATO? Stall their admission to the EU?
| mrtksn wrote:
| They did all that but Turkey is also a powerful country
| and important ally.
|
| EU can stall Turkey's admission in the EU and they did
| that however they also need Turkey to tackle the refugee
| crisis, Russia and other issues.
|
| EU got to the brink of collapse with 1 million Syrian
| refugees, Turkey is hosting 5 million of them. EU and
| Erdogan got a deal, EU turns blind eye to some of
| Erdogan's stuff and Erdogan takes back all the refugees
| that EU sends back.
|
| Similar agreements are in place with the USA. US lowers
| the heat under Erdogan and Turkey keeps the peace in
| Kabul. Stuff like that.
| fmajid wrote:
| The way Fethullah Gulen got red-carpet immigration
| treatment in the US stinks to high heaven, though. It
| seems suspicion the US was behind the coup attempt is
| widespread in Turkey and not limited to AKP supporters.
| ryanlol wrote:
| Any important person can get red-carpet immigration
| treatment, why exactly does this particular case stink?
| mrtksn wrote:
| Well, for once the CIA agent Graham Fuller[0] actively
| supported Gulen's green card application[1]. I don't know
| if Gulen was a CIA himself but there are ample clues that
| he is at least involved with the US government. CIA has a
| rich history of pulling such operations. That's
| Fascinating read actually.
|
| [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graham_E._Fuller
|
| [1] https://www.politico.eu/article/graham-fuller-turke-
| issues-a...
| ryanlol wrote:
| I don't think this really supports your original claim.
| mrtksn wrote:
| What's my original claim?
| ryanlol wrote:
| "The way Fethullah Gulen got red-carpet immigration
| treatment in the US stinks to high heaven"
| hellbannedguy wrote:
| I just figured Apple's markup is so high, a 50% drop would still
| produce a profit.
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