[HN Gopher] The Weirdness of Government Variation in Covid-19 Re...
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       The Weirdness of Government Variation in Covid-19 Responses
        
       Author : igammarays
       Score  : 36 points
       Date   : 2021-11-22 21:26 UTC (1 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (richardhanania.substack.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (richardhanania.substack.com)
        
       | Barrin92 wrote:
       | Main reason the author seems to be surprised appears to be that
       | he drastically underestimates the cultural differences in Europe.
       | Political culture and attitudes towards restrictions and
       | liberties vary drastically even between neighbouring countries.
       | Austria might be close to Germany in several ways but it has
       | always been notoriously weird politically. There's also a
       | dividing line between what's (oversimplified) been called
       | historically 'Latin' and 'German' cultures. Greece and Italy work
       | very differently in terms of governance than Northern and Central
       | Europe.
       | 
       | Other point is about the difference of covid responses compared
       | to the lack thereof on other issues. This is pretty much a prime
       | example of what Carl Schmitt called the _State of Exception_.
       | Covid is a pretty rare occasion in modern times where all the red
       | tape and bureaucracy gets pushed aside and states actually
       | exercise sovereign power, and that just brings differences much
       | more to the surface, both across the pond and here on the
       | continent.
        
         | wk_end wrote:
         | Can you elaborate on how Austrian politics are weird/tend to
         | differ from Germany's, in your view? I lived in Germany for a
         | bit and have visited Austria, but am otherwise ignorant, so I'm
         | not doubting you or anything - that just sounds interesting.
        
       | Bayart wrote:
       | Once in a while someone has the wild realization that European
       | countries are, in fact, different countries. Despite a common
       | background (and even that really needs to be taken with
       | precaution, a lot of the common ground in Europe has more to do
       | with the worldwide uniformization of material culture than
       | anything else), we do have strong differences, _especially_ when
       | it comes to governance, administration and political culture. For
       | example Britain and France have more to do with their former
       | colonies, in terms of how they 're structured, than any of their
       | direct neighbours.
        
       | koshergweilo wrote:
       | Man this guy has clearly never been to socal. Otherwise he would
       | never do something so silly as comparing orange county to LA
       | county.
       | 
       | It has three times as many people and twice the population
       | density, and the average person makes significantly less per
       | year. Is it that surprising that a smaller, less dense, richer
       | suburb doesn't need as many restrictions as the largest county in
       | the country?
       | 
       | This is all without even touching the historical political
       | differences between the two counties. Frankly I'm amazed (and
       | very glad, I'm visiting over the holidays) the two counties have
       | such similar vaccination rates.
       | 
       | Edit: Also he neglected to mention Orange County actually has a
       | _higher_ vaccination rate than LA County. Seems like a Federalism
       | success story to me.
        
       | zwieback wrote:
       | I was struck by another detail: even between "blue"
       | jurisdictions, e.g. coastal US/cities and cities in Germany the
       | details differ wildly. Natural immunity seems to count for
       | something in Germany but not in the US and it's the opposite with
       | PCR tests, those can get you into my US workplace, which has a
       | vaccine mandate, but not enough to get you into some venues in
       | Germany. I'm trying to sort all this since I'll be visiting my
       | parents in Germany for the first time in 2 years.
       | 
       | Also, it's politically very hard to pass vaccine mandates in
       | "obedient" Germany but easy in "wild-west" US. This has to do
       | with privacy laws more than medicine or science.
       | 
       | What's common, as far as I can tell: right-wing=anti mask/vaccine
       | and left-wing=pro mask/vaccine.
        
       | chrisco255 wrote:
       | The thing to takeaway from COVID-19 policy responses is that
       | there is no clear success in any strategy whatsoever. The virus
       | has confounded and mutated and spread in the face of masking,
       | social distancing, triple vaxxing, lockdowns, and medical
       | apartheid.
       | 
       | We are two years into this. It's clear that Covid is endemic and
       | here to stay. That its rate of mutation and spread is too high to
       | contain. Antiviral treatments and therapeutics should be given
       | more heavy support and research. People also need to move on, and
       | live freely, because life is too short to live in a bubble of
       | fear and dreariness. How many high school graduations, proms,
       | death bed visitations, dance recitals, wedding receptions, music
       | concerts, games and sporting events have been ruined by these
       | awful and ineffective government responses? How much life and joy
       | has been sucked out of the world to stave off the inevitable?
        
         | newacct583 wrote:
         | South Korea certainly seems like a success, with a per capita
         | death rate about 3% of what the US saw. In fact contrary to
         | your point, there is a very wide spread in covid impact from
         | nation to nation. Here's a graph of all nations with 10M+
         | populations (scaled to eliminate Peru, which is a significant
         | outlier that makes the graph hard to read):
         | 
         | https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countr...
         | 
         | And while there's lots of confounding issues here, like
         | developing nations or autocracies with underreported or suspect
         | data, it's pretty clear that some countries are doing a ton
         | better than others. And it certainly looks to my eyes that
         | among developed democracies, the nations with stronger popular
         | adherence to mitigation strategies (in particular vaccination
         | rates, but distancing and mask-wearing too) are the ones who
         | are winning.
         | 
         | (And needless to say, the US is pretty much at the bottom of
         | the list of industrial democracies.)
        
         | mft_ wrote:
         | With COVID rife, and too few people vaccinated, the outcome of
         | _" people also need to move on, and live freely"_ is spread,
         | mutation, infection, and many many deaths - both from COVID
         | directly, and also from people with other conditions who can't
         | get optimal treatment due to hospitals and especially ICUs
         | being (literally) full of COVID sufferers.
         | 
         | That's what restrictions and lockdowns are largely driven by:
         | preventing disasters within the hospital system.
         | 
         | So... how do you weigh up loss of human life on a massive
         | scale, against _" living freely"_?
        
           | throw10920 wrote:
           | > So... how do you weigh up loss of human life on a massive
           | scale, against "living freely"?
           | 
           | You know that the vaccine has been available for, like, nine
           | months, right? Anyone who wanted to get it got it months ago,
           | and has been rather safe. ICUs being full points to a problem
           | with the medical system (and, at least in America, the
           | medical system is well known to be broken), and if you don't
           | want to fix that, there's a really easy political fix (which
           | is to de-prioritize unvaccinated COVID patients, given that -
           | again - there's a vaccine available, so if you willingly
           | chose not to get it, then your medical care can wait until
           | those who have unpreventable issues are helped).
           | 
           | We're well past the point where you can make the argument
           | that these restrictions are for the greater good, because
           | we've been in a state where one's health is almost entirely
           | one's personal responsibility (you either take the vaccine
           | and you're safe, or you don't and you're not) for months now.
           | 
           | If other people want to remain unvaccinated and that leads to
           | them dying ("loss of human life on a massive scale"), _they
           | can do that_.
        
           | bserge wrote:
           | Got Covid, got the vaccine, will get the fucking "boosters",
           | will wear mask and be careful.
           | 
           | Now fuck off with any other restrictions, that's where I
           | think the line is.
        
         | beebmam wrote:
         | Seems like China's policy and Taiwan's policy are the only
         | nations that have clear success. And it's the zero tolerance of
         | COVID policy. One that many of us have been calling for near 2
         | years now.
        
         | callmeal wrote:
         | >How many high school graduations, proms, death bed
         | visitations, dance recitals, wedding receptions, music
         | concerts, games and sporting events have been ruined by these
         | awful and ineffective government responses?
         | 
         | I would think that not having a high school graduation / prom
         | /recital /wedding etc to be a lot less ruinous than having a
         | close relative die from one of these?
         | 
         | I agree with you: life is too short. Personally I would hate
         | for it to be cut even shorter because all the hospital beds are
         | taken up by people who contracted an avoidable, extremely
         | infectious disease.
         | 
         | https://people.com/health/college-student-dies-from-covid-af...
         | 
         | https://www.newsweek.com/bride-planning-funeral-instead-wedd...
        
           | commandlinefan wrote:
           | You realize that means we have to cancel all high school
           | graduations / proms /recitals /weddings etc forever, right?
        
           | version_five wrote:
           | Your argument is an old and tired one. Maybe we should all be
           | on mandatory medically supervised diet and exercise regimens,
           | not allowed to drive, not allowed any alcohol or caffeine or
           | other drugs. If your dream is to optimize for longevity over
           | all else, you can do that, at home. For many people, living
           | life is actually important, not just living long. You have no
           | right to tell them how to behave, or to rob them of life
           | moments because of your personal criteria you're trying to
           | optimize for.
        
           | throw10920 wrote:
           | > I would think that not having a high school graduation /
           | prom /recital /wedding etc to be a lot less ruinous than
           | having a close relative die from one of these?
           | 
           | The vaccine has been available for anyone who wants to get it
           | for the better part of a year now, boosters have been
           | released, and it's effective at preventing both transmission
           | and severe cases (to include death).
           | 
           | If your relative is vaccinated, the odds of them getting
           | severely sick from an unvaccinated person are _incredibly_
           | small, and as such, various gathering restrictions are not
           | only ineffective, but straight-up immoral.
           | 
           | (if your relatives aren't vaccinated, then they've made a
           | choice to increase their risk exposure, and that's on them -
           | given the effectiveness of the vaccine, it's pretty clear
           | that safety is a personal choice, not something that other
           | people impose on you - which is reinforced by _both_ of the
           | links you posted, wherein unvaccinated people died from the
           | virus, not vaccinated ones)
        
         | User23 wrote:
         | We should figure out what Sub-Saharan Africa is doing right and
         | then emulate that, because they've been by far the least
         | affected, despite a 6% vaccination rate. More on that here[1].
         | 
         | [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29278184
        
         | pangolinplayer wrote:
         | This is and was always about power. The idea they care about
         | the health of the less than 1% of people who die is laughable.
         | They unleashed a disease on the world, seized further power and
         | mocked you the whole time and everyone let it happen. We slaves
         | deserve our condition.
        
         | lezojeda wrote:
         | I seriously can't fathom at all how anyone could be in favor of
         | lockdowns still.
        
         | belltaco wrote:
         | "Accidents still happen and people die despite traffic lights,
         | stop signs, some wearing seatbelts and having airbags
         | installed, everyone needs to move on and ignore all road safety
         | rules and laws"
        
           | commandlinefan wrote:
           | So... you think mask mandates should be permanent?
        
         | woodruffw wrote:
         | Given that the US is sitting at a vaccination rate of around
         | 60% (i.e., around 10% _lower than the lowest_ estimate for
         | "some degree of herd immunity"), I don't think you can fairly
         | blame this on strategy (other than a general failure of public
         | education, but that's a doozy of a failure.)
         | 
         | One way or another, the restrictions are going to eventually
         | end. But they _could_ have ended sooner, with fewer deaths and
         | fewer severely ill, had more people decided to act
         | affirmatively and with their civic duty in mind.
        
           | graeme wrote:
           | Unclear this is true. There's no herd immunity for any other
           | coronavirus. Antibodies wane quicker than for other diseases.
           | 
           | We have a SARS virus that we hope is actually just a common
           | cold. That's the plan. Hope and see.
           | 
           | Even highly vaccinated European societies are seeing a sharp
           | rise in cases now that winter is here. Even Portugal, which
           | vaccinated basically 100% of adults, has seem cases triple in
           | a month.
           | 
           | They seem to be doing alright, but antibodies are currently
           | fresh from recent vaccines. We'll see how this goes long run.
           | 
           | But there's no empirical support from any society, anywhere,
           | that we could be done. Before any place can claim victory
           | they have to make it through their traditional flu season.
        
           | perihelions wrote:
           | > _" Given that the US is sitting at a vaccination rate of
           | around 60% (i.e., around 10% lower than the lowest estimate
           | for "some degree of herd immunity"),"_
           | 
           | Singapore has a "fully vaccinated" rate of 88% -- +29% above
           | the USA -- yet currently has a higher case rate than the US.
           | 
           | https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-
           | vaccina...
           | 
           | https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-
           | cases.h...
           | 
           | Other examples of highly-vaccinated hotspots: Germany (68%),
           | Netherlands (73%), Denmark (76%). (All data from NYT and
           | using their definitions).
        
         | version_five wrote:
         | > there is no clear success in any strategy whatsoever.
         | 
         | No clear success from a covid mitigation perspective, but lots
         | of huge wins in gaining power and growing bureaucracy. From the
         | perspective of an advocate that wants a way to push their
         | agenda forward, or a director that wants to get more budget and
         | headcount for their group, covid had been a huge boon. There
         | have been massive losers as well, in politics, business, and
         | personal freedom, but if you look at how some have benefitted
         | it's clear why there are lots of entrenched interests that
         | don't want us to move on.
        
         | mmazing wrote:
         | I disagree that there was no clear success. Look at New
         | Zealand. They took it seriously and took it seriously early.
         | Their cases dropped to near nothing and held that way until
         | September of 2021.
         | 
         | I would argue that most of these countries and US counties
         | being talked about in this article were deeply divided from the
         | start, and never had great adoption of mitigation efforts due
         | to politicization of the issue.
         | 
         | Had we all acted like New Zealand, actually having unified
         | messaging and adoption of efforts, maybe we could have cleared
         | this up early on and wouldn't be fighting all these variants
         | now.
        
         | TylerE wrote:
         | I think part of the problem is that things that work get
         | discontinued... "Oh, we're 70% vaxxed and positive rate is
         | under X%..we don't need to mask anymore.."
        
           | majou wrote:
           | Where I live dropped mask mandate only to bring it back in a
           | few months with a strict vaccine mandate.
        
         | mistrial9 wrote:
         | there you go, thinking as an individual -- a voice like a poet.
         | Decisions on governance are made from the point of view of
         | _administration_ .. that is, what are the financial costs, how
         | much attention is on the subject, things like that. The
         | monetary costs to insurers combined with Doctor 's Orders
         | (literally) are at stake. Individual people, their work places,
         | social lives, their free will, their own affairs, are counted
         | for naught it seems.
        
           | mft_ wrote:
           | How would you balance harm caused to other individuals?
           | 
           | If someone was walking around a mall with Ebola, I'd assume
           | you'd be comfortable with them being restrained and placed in
           | quarantine?
           | 
           | Everyone that contracts COVID and is seriously harmed (or
           | dies) contracted it from someone else - and through different
           | measures, that transmission and death was preventable. And
           | yet, because in the majority of cases, COVID isn't seriously
           | harmful or fatal, it's okay to be part of its transmission to
           | others?
        
       | warning26 wrote:
       | This article was disappointing -- I was hoping it would be a
       | detailed of comparison of different responses and their
       | performance, but instead it basically boiled down to something
       | like:
       | 
       | "Different areas responded differently, which sure is
       | _interesting_. The end. "
        
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       (page generated 2021-11-22 23:01 UTC)