[HN Gopher] The Greedy Doctor Problem
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       The Greedy Doctor Problem
        
       Author : ignored
       Score  : 116 points
       Date   : 2021-11-18 20:20 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (universalprior.substack.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (universalprior.substack.com)
        
       | teekert wrote:
       | I think most countries with a civilized, social and sustainable
       | healthcare system do this, right?
       | 
       | Maybe this is the kind of market that can never be free, because
       | you can never step away from a deal, as the alternative is often
       | death. As such perhaps in these matters we should just have some
       | faith in humanity. You know, it works for a lot of open source
       | software. Capitalism is not a silver bullet, people have a
       | consciousness for a reason, use it, have faith in it. You will
       | see that that is the exact thing that will make it flourish.
       | 
       | Btw, all "solutions" would piss me off as a doctor that just
       | wants to help. The vast majority of people deserve and want to be
       | trusted. We work better that way. What a cold piece.
        
         | dasudasu wrote:
         | Many countries with universal healthcare still pay by the act.
         | In Canada, doctors are mostly independent service providers
         | that bill the government directly. This can lead to two
         | problems: a) they don't do a whole lot of medical acts because
         | it already pays so well that they can afford to slack off
         | (e.g., work 3-4 days a week, see very little patients), or b)
         | do a lot of unnecessary acts because it goes directly into
         | their pockets.
        
           | belval wrote:
           | Yep and it's a pretty big issue actually as it creates a lot
           | of abuse in the system, doctors mostly interested in smaller
           | "easier" acts that they are known to pay well, doctors
           | getting referrals from a clinic outside of their
           | administrative region (those pay more), and of course
           | radiologists working 2-3 days a week because their acts are
           | even better remunerated.
           | 
           | Add on top that by being independent, doctors will have their
           | own company and be subjected to a much lower tax rate than a
           | "normal" person earning 400k$/year.
        
           | rectang wrote:
           | It's clear why performing unnecessary medical acts is
           | problematic, but what is the issue if doctors being paid by
           | the act work 3-4 days a week? Isn't this just piece work and
           | you can add more doctors?
        
             | dasudasu wrote:
             | Because the supply of medical doctors in most countries
             | including Canada is heavily constrained. People are wary of
             | opening the flood gates because it is expected that the
             | quality of care would drop (not necessarily a good
             | argument). Meanwhile, there is a huge access issue with
             | long wait times at the ER or for seeing specialists. A
             | large proportion of the population has no family doctor.
        
             | dahfizz wrote:
             | The median wait time to see a specialist in canada is 78
             | days[1].
             | 
             | Yes, in theory you could "just add more doctors". But there
             | is clearly already less doctors than there needs to be.
             | Policy that encourages doctors to work less exacerbates
             | this issue.
             | 
             | You can't just say "add more doctors" as if that helps
             | anything. Shortages exist for a reason, and analyzing and
             | fixing the system which creates the shortage is the only
             | way to resolve the shortage. You can't just tell poor
             | people to "make more money" and solve poverty in the blink
             | of an eye.
             | 
             | [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7292524/
        
               | vanviegen wrote:
               | > You can't just say "add more doctors" as if that helps
               | anything.
               | 
               | Why wouldn't it?
               | 
               | There are more than enough people who would want to
               | become a doctor, and would be capable. _Especially_ if
               | the work /life balance would be better. At least in my
               | part of the world, it seems that the system is rigged to
               | keep the number of docters artificially low.
        
               | dahfizz wrote:
               | > Why wouldn't it?
               | 
               | I explained in my comment: There is a shortage of
               | doctors. Unless you know 50,000 people with medical
               | degrees searching for a job, you are going to have to fix
               | the situation that created the shortage rather than just
               | wishing more doctors would appear.
               | 
               | This is what dasudasu was doing. They identified a cause
               | of the shortage (doctors are encouraged to work 60% of a
               | work week) and your response was "so what, more doctors
               | will just appear". More doctors have not been appearing.
        
             | klyrs wrote:
             | Yeah, that sounds ideal to me. I _hate_ seeing stressed
             | out, rushed medical professionals. In part, that 's selfish
             | -- they aren't doing their best work. But also, they set a
             | terrible example to their patients by ignoring the impact
             | of overwork on their own physical and mental health.
             | 
             | Less overwork results in better care, and more jobs. I'm
             | all for it.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | dang wrote:
         | Please don't take HN threads into generic flamewar, and please
         | particularly keep off the nationalistic flamebait track.
         | 
         | We detached this subthread from
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29270645.
        
       | throwaway14356 wrote:
       | odd that there is no mention of the traditional Chinese model
       | where the doctor gets paid only if you are healthy
        
         | Aaargh20318 wrote:
         | The article does mention that: "If you pay them whenever you
         | are diagnosed as healthy, they will diagnose exactly that."
        
       | goopthink wrote:
       | The article proposes prepayment options. Why not go to the
       | "other, other obvious" solution, which is results-based payments?
       | In healthcare, that's value-based care. In other industries w/
       | agent-principle problems, it's called "taking on risk". You're
       | incentivizing results and outcomes, rather than whatever specific
       | actions lead up to those results. It means that the focus is no
       | longer on the activity provided by the agent, but on the desired
       | outcomes from the principle. Pure alignment and it helps filter
       | out those who are good at getting results from those who are good
       | at doing the actions.
        
         | snarf21 wrote:
         | This is such an awful take. So if a doctor prescribes a
         | medicine and the patient never takes it and the patient dies it
         | is somehow the doctor's fault or they don't get paid?
         | 
         | Some doctors are greedy. Some ________ are greedy. There are
         | major factors in the waste in our health care system but by and
         | large it isn't doctor's fees. There are so many rent seekers
         | taking a cut.
         | 
         | There are other models than fee-for-service. They have tried
         | population health models where the Provider (Dr, nurse, etc.)
         | get $X per person per year. They are incentivized to be more
         | preventative where they basically get to keep whatever they
         | don't spend on patient care. However, you can lead a horse to
         | water but can't make him drink. Ask yourself this: would you
         | write web code where you got paid based on how many unique
         | visitors viewed the page your wrote?
         | 
         | We can easily fix health care with a few simple changes but
         | there is no real appetite to do so. One simple change is to go
         | to referenced based pricing. You can't charge more than 1.2 the
         | Medicare reimbursement. This change alone would reduce our
         | spending by 25%.
        
           | rsj_hn wrote:
           | > One simple change is to go to referenced based pricing. You
           | can't charge more than 1.2 the Medicare reimbursement.
           | 
           | Agree that this is huge. Price transparency, reference
           | pricing. You know "the law of one price" is supposed to be a
           | pillar of market economics, so this should be a no-brainer.
           | Additionally, don't allow charging more than the insurance
           | will pay with the exception of an agreed upon co-pay ahead of
           | time. If a hospital accepts insurance, then it shouldn't be
           | able to send you a bill later on that the insurance refuses
           | to pay. That needs to be worked out between the hospital and
           | the insurer. I would also like to see binding quotes before
           | any procedure, with no surprise billing.
        
             | sokoloff wrote:
             | Most of us have been in a codebase for an issue that turns
             | out larger or more complex than first understood. I don't
             | want to undergo surgery for cancer X, have the surgeon see
             | nearby, related cancer Y and sew me back up and tell me I
             | also have cancer Y but that he didn't want to go over the
             | estimate.
             | 
             | When asked for a choice by a medical professional (or a
             | home improvement contractor for that matter), I will more
             | often than not ask "if you were in my shoes, what would you
             | do?" I don't 100% of the time go with what they say, but I
             | think it helps me understand their expertise and judgment
             | better.
             | 
             | In the surgical case above, if the surgeon would have taken
             | it out and given me a single recovery experience and told
             | me about the bill when I woke up, I'm probably better off
             | for it.
        
               | rsj_hn wrote:
               | So in a surgery situation where you are under and
               | something else is discovered, then that's a situation of
               | unexpected costs. So you look to who is best able to bear
               | them and that's who bears them. What exactly is the
               | purpose of insurance if they do not cover you from
               | unexpected costs? And if there is no insurance (say a
               | cash procedure), then the hospital bears the cost and
               | bakes the possibility of complications into the price.
               | 
               | Point is, you need clarity of prices rather than the
               | situation today where you sign a promise to pay whatever
               | costs the hospital decides to charge you, and you may not
               | even know what those are until weeks after the procedure.
               | There is no meaningful way a market can operate under
               | conditions in which blank checks are demanded in order to
               | get anything done.
               | 
               | If that can't work, and the hospital insists it cannot
               | quote you a cost at all, then go full socialized
               | healthcare since obviously no market is possible.
        
             | snarf21 wrote:
             | And then you have the current bs where the anesthesiologist
             | for your operation at the hospital system that you always
             | use is somehow un-affiliated and out of network even if
             | everything else in that system is in network.
        
         | kwhitefoot wrote:
         | > Why not go to the "other, other obvious" solution, which is
         | results-based payments?
         | 
         | There is a story about doctors in ancient China who are paid by
         | their clients only so long as the client is healthy. When they
         | fall sick, the doctor is not paid again until the patient is
         | healthy again. Then the goal is not a cure for a disease but
         | the prevention of disease.
         | 
         | I don't know if any such thing ever really happened but it
         | seems like it might be worth exploring even if only to
         | illuminate the various possibilities.
        
           | themacguffinman wrote:
           | I think this only works if there's a scarcity of patients but
           | it's rarely true that patients are rare. This will probably
           | suffer from the real estate agent problem: in theory, real
           | estate agents are incentivized to get you the best price
           | because they get a cut for their efforts, but in practice
           | it's more lucrative for them to flip more houses than put in
           | the extra effort into your case. Likewise, I suspect doctors
           | will find it easier & cheaper to not care about you and just
           | move onto taking in other healthy patients.
        
           | ryanmcbride wrote:
           | It's an interesting idea but the pessimist in me just sees
           | this as incentivizing under-diagnosing, running fewer tests,
           | etc.
        
             | recursive wrote:
             | Running fewer tests is not necessarily bad, especially if
             | your baseline is a system where the system is paid per-
             | test.
        
             | rileymat2 wrote:
             | Also they have no interest in treating elderly (or anyone
             | all that ill) if it requires any effort at all, as future
             | healthy payments will not cover the expense.
             | 
             | It is easy to see an optimal strategy of never treating
             | anything.
        
             | brezelgoring wrote:
             | Well the other option, which is to pay when a problem is
             | found, can lead to over-diagnosis and finding issues where
             | there are none. Its 'taking your car to an unknown
             | mechanic' problem, he _will_ find a problem, and that is a
             | problem too.
        
             | foolinaround wrote:
             | what if the diagnosing and treatment were done by different
             | doctors?
        
         | R0b0t1 wrote:
         | Really good take, actually. In the extreme case you find that
         | doctors actually have no responsibility to their patients. You
         | can read board investigations. They are unusually soft on very
         | horrible doctors.
        
         | thenoblesunfish wrote:
         | I think that the author is assuming that you, the patient, have
         | no way to assess whether the diagnosis was correct. I think
         | that eliminates what I also thought of as a strategy, which is
         | how this works in real life - some combination of being able to
         | tell, as the patient, when treatment is working, combined with
         | (the threat of) second opinions, and of course all the "human"
         | stuff that the author sets aside about doctors wanting to help
         | people etc.
        
           | goopthink wrote:
           | The thing is, in many cases you don't need to know if the
           | diagnosis is correct, so long as the results are
           | directionally correct. If the outcome is an improvement in
           | health, that meets your threshold for value delivered, hence
           | payment rendered. I think there are many cases when you don't
           | need to be smarter than the other person to benefit from
           | their expertise. You can take it a step further and make the
           | distinction between absolute value versus perceived/relative
           | value -- if we have a patient with cancer, absolute value
           | might mean destroying all cancer cells (which is an absolute
           | metric but extremely hard to model). But perceived value
           | might be "feeling better". It's important to make this
           | distinction particularly in healthcare because absolute
           | benefits and relative benefits are _extremely_ important.
           | Hospice /end-of-life care is a good example of this (as is
           | the cancer example above). Most people would prefer relative
           | or perceived comfort as opposed to absolute results that only
           | end up prolonging a painful process.
           | 
           | Outside of healthcare, for another example example, you don't
           | need to understand engineering and tension dynamics in order
           | to appreciate that the second floor of your home support you
           | and your roof doesn't cave in on itself. I don't have
           | examples on hand, but in medicine we've had cases where
           | people do some logical variation of "the right thing for the
           | wrong reasons." I.e., rituals that correlate with healthy
           | outcomes because there is some not-yet-understood principle
           | at play (i.e, you don't need to understand germ theory to
           | benefit from cleanliness rituals).
           | 
           | I think this is one of those logical conundrums which falls
           | into the trap of "in theory, in practice". The artificial
           | constraints around the problem space result in artificial
           | logical conundrums.
        
             | IggleSniggle wrote:
             | It is a balancing act, to be sure, regarding "feeling
             | better" vs "less sick". Hospice care is indeed very
             | important. It can go too far in this direction, however,
             | and I have real sympathy for docs that get it "wrong" in
             | either direction (too much "comfort" or too much "let's
             | give you more years").
             | 
             | Notably: the prescription opioid epidemic is a great
             | example of how this can go wrong in the opposite direction
             | of healthcare providers valuing "relative" benefit vs
             | "absolute" benefit.
             | 
             | My spouse is a primary care provider, and there was a
             | period a couple decades ago where the prevailing wisdom was
             | "if a patient says they are in pain, they are in pain, and
             | you treat that pain. We are experts in medicine, but the
             | patient is the expert of their own perception." This is
             | still a complicated issue today, but there are clearly
             | outcomes where we can make people "feel better" all the way
             | to an early grave.
             | 
             | For the terminally ill, it seems absolutely appropriate to
             | me to let the patient guide whether they wish to accelerate
             | their death in exchange for quality of life. But
             | "terminally ill" is often not such a black and white
             | issue...we are all eventually mortal.
             | 
             | If things like heroin don't inspire a sense of horror or
             | dread, then we just aren't speaking the same language. I,
             | for one, don't want to live in a world where the human
             | priority-at-large is everyone defining "living" as
             | maximizing pleasure until their death. For the hedonists, I
             | get why this makes a certain nihilistic sense, but I think
             | the horror of the reality of it outweighs any momentary
             | benefit.
             | 
             | In the very abstract, maybe it doesn't really matter one
             | way or the other. In the concrete day-to-day reality of it,
             | it's absolutely awful to see anyone struggling with any
             | kind of addiction, out of control of their own
             | lives...sometimes because they got on a treadmill-to-death
             | on the _expert_ advice of someone trying to "help them
             | out."
        
         | dasudasu wrote:
         | Then doctors filter what patients they take to guarantee these
         | good outcomes. This is already done by some surgeons. Surgery
         | is already a subset of medicine heavily judged on outcomes.
        
           | handrous wrote:
           | This is featured in the Doctor Strange movie, in fact. IIRC
           | the good doctor is presented with a patient whose case is so
           | difficult that he's one of the only people in the world with
           | a chance at successfully performing the procedure they need--
           | but he turns it down because he thinks the odds would still
           | be too low, and it might hurt his record. I think there might
           | also be a karmic turn with that when his hands get messed up
           | --I wanna say there's a scene or short sequence of the same
           | thing happening to him, at least implicitly.
        
           | apyrros wrote:
           | Cherry picking and lemon dropping does happen in value-based
           | systems, but there has been work to address the issue. No
           | simple answer, but basically you pay doctors more for select
           | patients.
           | 
           | https://relentlesshealthvalue.com/audios/ep322/
        
             | solatic wrote:
             | Within the context of the article though, if one assumes
             | greedy doctors, then essentially cooperating doctors can
             | cooperate to refuse treatment N times, where N is an
             | equilibrium between the lemon-picking bonus and never
             | accepting any patients at all (and therefore never having
             | any revenue), in order to get the system to label non-
             | lemons as lemons.
        
         | ska wrote:
         | One potential difficultly here is that good metrics are hard,
         | and outcomes for a lot of medicine are hard to evaluate.
         | Obviously not true everywhere.
         | 
         | So a potential path will be that the incentives start to line
         | up with measurable impact on symptoms short term (easy outcome
         | to evaluate) instead of meaningful shift in root causes
         | (difficult and/or slow to measure)
        
       | joshuaheard wrote:
       | Competition cures greed. Instead of going to one doctor, go to
       | three. Go with the doctor that has the best value
       | (price/service). If the doctor gets greedy, shop around. Tell the
       | doctor you found a lower price, and if he is not competitive, you
       | will fire him, and find a new doctor.
        
         | kwhitefoot wrote:
         | How many people are in a position to find out which doctor has
         | the best value?
         | 
         | Is there even a theoretical possibility that this could be done
         | other than after the fact?
        
           | joshuaheard wrote:
           | Just like any service provider, there are crowdsourced
           | ratings like Yelp.
        
       | Gatsky wrote:
       | Substitute 'greedy healthcare organisation' for doctor and you
       | have an actual problem not a made up one.
        
       | desktopninja wrote:
       | On the streets this is akin to "taking your car to the mechanics
       | shop"
        
       | phkahler wrote:
       | Here is a story of an actual greedy doctor:
       | 
       | https://abcnews.go.com/Health/whistle-blower-helped-expose-m...
       | 
       | What a nightmare for the people involved.
        
       | evancoop wrote:
       | Let us posit that the patient's goal is to remain alive and well
       | (maximize quality-adjusted life years). Let us posit that the
       | doctor's goal is maximal renumeration. Cannot we simply
       | compensate the doctor quarterly as a function of quality-of-life
       | during that quarter along with some fixed retainer. Now the
       | doctor hopes we remain alive and well as long as possible?
        
         | staticman2 wrote:
         | Then the doctor fires you for being unhealthy and finds a
         | healthier patient. The patient would have been healthy even if
         | he never went to the doctor and the doctor gets credit and
         | payment for it.
        
       | jsharf wrote:
       | Pay the doctor a fixed amount each month that increases as you
       | get older. Sure he makes X right now, but if you live past 100 he
       | could making 5X that.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | cies wrote:
       | I leaned once that in ancient China they paid family doctors a
       | monthly free, unless someone in the household got sick, then the
       | fee was not paid until everyone was healthy again.
       | 
       | Doctors did due diligence on their clients and advised them
       | preventive. They did not want sickly households.
       | 
       | Also the incentive is on keeping the whole house in good shape.
       | 
       | I learned the opposite once: never let a capitalist near your
       | health care program. They make money when you are sick, and stop
       | making money when you are healthy.
        
         | d0gsg0w00f wrote:
         | > I learned the opposite once: never let a capitalist near your
         | health care program. They make money when you are sick, and
         | stop making money when you are healthy.
         | 
         | Wouldn't the same rule apply for IT Sysadmins?
        
           | Aaargh20318 wrote:
           | The same applies for everyone who charges an hourly rate,
           | they have an incentive to work as slowly as possible.
        
       | skinner_ wrote:
       | The original post focuses on the limiting edge case where the
       | only information coming out of the doctor is a single bit:
       | Treatment vs Healthy. I believe the subject can reasonably expect
       | some explanation from the doctor, and then we are in the
       | territory of Interactive Proofs and Arthur-Merlin Games.
       | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interactive_proof_system) Actually
       | I'm a bit surprised they were not mentioned in the original post,
       | nor in any of the 127 comments so far. They are the computational
       | complexity models of a situation when a (computationally) all-
       | powerful but unreliable agent has to convince another,
       | (computationally) limited agent. If there's a second greedy
       | doctor, or a greedy detective, we have Multi-prover Interactive
       | Proofs.
        
       | poulsbohemian wrote:
       | >The medical professional is greedy, i.e. they want to charge you
       | as much money as possible, and they do not (per se) care about
       | your health. They only care about your health as far as they can
       | get money from you.
       | 
       | I'm not even going to read the rest of the article because the
       | premise up front is so flawed. It assumes that doctors alone have
       | say over pricing / compensation, and that's just not reality.
       | It's much like engineers being blamed for things that rest
       | entirely with management. It also makes the same flawed premise
       | that I deal with in my profession every day - that I'm so greedy
       | and so focused on my own pocketbook that I will screw over my
       | clients. Are people motivated by money? Certainly. But a
       | professional will put their client above money assuming no other
       | perverse incentives.
        
         | spaetzleesser wrote:
         | "But a professional will put their client above money assuming
         | no other perverse incentives."
         | 
         | After dealing with some surgeons I am not so sure about this
         | anymore. They seem to feel very entitled to have big houses and
         | nice cars.
        
         | gampleman wrote:
         | This comment is like saying that Zeno's paradox is dumb because
         | proud Achilles would never consent to a foot race with a mere
         | turtle - imagine the insult!
        
           | poulsbohemian wrote:
           | Look I understand in making the statement I made that I was
           | hanging myself out there for further critique. My points were
           | simply that:
           | 
           | 1) The person doing the work often has limited say in the
           | cost / compensation model unless they are also an owner.
           | 
           | 2) Yes, there will always be people who prioritize money over
           | the quality of their services. But reputation has a way of
           | reducing their effectiveness.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | coding123 wrote:
       | For those that thought this was about healthcare, you didn't read
       | the entire thing. Actually you should guess by the first example
       | showing what looks like an NN setup that this has nothing to do
       | with Healthcare.
        
       | samcgraw wrote:
       | Very interesting read!
       | 
       | I suppose another such solution, for a patient with a given
       | medical condition X, is to have a very large pool of doctors and
       | see if any of _them_ have condition X (with similar age,
       | background, etc).
       | 
       | Then one could compare how treatment varies when doctors treat
       | themselves with the same issue.
       | 
       | "Physician, heal thyself."
        
         | loldk wrote:
         | This needs to happen. It doesn't have to be a requirement, but
         | it needs to be a norm for all doctor's visits. It would save
         | insurance companies money guaranteed.
        
       | kuiper0x2 wrote:
       | The obvious, obvious thing is to simply pay the doctor a fix
       | priced each month wether they diagnose you with something or not.
       | Well above what they would earn elsewhere.
       | 
       | Their incentive then becomes to keep a good relationship with you
       | so you continue to pay them. The best way to do that is to keep
       | you healthy and happy.
        
         | michaelrpeskin wrote:
         | That's what I do. It's called "direct primary care". In the
         | last 10 years, I've used two DPC doctors. I loved my first
         | doctor because we had the same philosophies towards health.
         | Last year she started drifting too "mainstream" and I didn't
         | like her style, so I switched and took my money elsewhere. I
         | found a new guy who is really aligned with me and it's been
         | great. It's almost as if having choice and market can work :)
         | 
         | I get the super high-deductible catastrophic with HSA plan from
         | my work, and then I pay $135/mo for my whole family for the DPC
         | doctor (I could pay that $135 with my HSA and have it be on
         | pretax money, but I'd rather invest my HSA pretax right now).
         | The total there is less than any other insurance available to
         | me. If I ever need anything, I just call or email my doc, most
         | of the time we just do a (secure) video chat and I'm done and I
         | don't need to make a trip in. If it is more severe, I can
         | easily get a same-day appointment. He knows me, knows my
         | history, and has an incentive to keep me healthy. The healthier
         | I am, the more I pay him and don't see him.
         | 
         | I love the model!
        
           | lotsofpulp wrote:
           | I pay $25 to $30 per hour to housekeepers. I question the
           | sanity of a doctor charging $135 per month for multiple
           | people.
        
             | michaelrpeskin wrote:
             | He's solidly middle class. Not pulling in tons of money.
             | But he doesn't have crazy stress either. He doesn't do
             | insurance or Medicare, so his overhead and admin cost are
             | really low.
        
             | ivalm wrote:
             | Typical panel size is ~1200 patients. So to get $300k/year
             | that's $20.8/person/month.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | That's a good point. I'll have to ask some friends about
               | overhead. Seems like a weirdly small number though
               | compared to insurance premiums + deductibles, and what
               | doctors usually get per visit when we go for run of the
               | mill fevers for the kids (~$150+ each time).
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | asimops wrote:
         | This was also my first idea when I read the problem. As the
         | payments stop as soon as you die, this is a strong incentive.
         | The only thing I could think of arguing is, that the doc could
         | keep demanding more and more. But that would imply a situation
         | with only one or very few skilled individuals, right?
        
         | catlikesshrimp wrote:
         | Pay a fixed rate.... Like a health insurance plan? That doesn't
         | work well in the US
         | 
         | Edit: The smarter person will charge you while you are healthy
         | and not treat you when you need it, or underdeliver for the
         | expectations.
        
         | winternett wrote:
         | >The obvious, obvious thing is to simply pay the doctor a fix
         | priced each month wether they diagnose you with something or
         | not.
         | 
         | Easy fix... "Just be wealthy!" lol... :|
         | 
         | I've paid for the absolute best insurance I could find this
         | year and gone to doctors my entire life that simply don't care.
         | I've had everything from colonoscopies to MRIs done and I
         | haven't spent more than one day in my entire life in a hospital
         | overnight in over 40 years.
         | 
         | Many would say I'm pretty healthy, but who knows?
         | 
         | It usually seems like doctors peddle as much fear as web MD now
         | in order to drive me through the service bay of fees every time
         | I have an ache or troublesome pain.
         | 
         | If it's any consolation though, my dentist, my auto maintenance
         | shop, my lawyer, and even my local supermarket want a constant
         | revenue stream out of me because they have a pipeline of
         | service that they know they can get a customer hooked on if
         | they coordinate their efforts and make their pricing variable
         | based on being properly opportunistic.
         | 
         | A lot of the tactics the health care industry regularly uses to
         | sell services (and drugs of course too) are from the nefarious
         | book of street drug dealers... In a bad economy, the scams and
         | opportunism are ripe. Getting a second opinion is often VERY
         | EXPENSIVE as well.
         | 
         | Be careful my friends, sometimes it's better to face your fears
         | of "WebMD prescribed" death head-on rather than to bankrupt
         | yourself, because if you don't die, living broke or in extreme
         | debt can be a "silent killer" and harmful mentally and
         | physically to you too. Maybe marry a doctor... That might cut
         | extreme health care costs... By about 5% if you're lucky... :P
        
           | d0gsg0w00f wrote:
           | I think the premise of the article is that this is _more_ of
           | a problem when you're wealthy and you want to be "as healthy
           | as possible". If you're poor you're only going to pay the
           | bare minimum to stay alive so capitalism takes over.
        
           | kiliantics wrote:
           | > Easy fix... "Just be wealthy!" lol... :|
           | 
           | Or have all doctors employed by the state on good fixed pay
        
         | mattficke wrote:
         | This is basically the Kaiser model. Kaiser's doctors are
         | salaried, rather than getting paid per procedure. Works pretty
         | well!
         | 
         | (I think the actual answer to the question in the OP is, at
         | least in part, to license more doctors. Then the cartel doesn't
         | have as much pricing power and medical care is less of a luxury
         | good. The rich person should really hire a lobbyist.)
        
           | infecto wrote:
           | I had Kaiser for a year and I actually enjoyed it. I saw a
           | couple specialist but I never had any major work done so
           | perhaps I am biased. It is funny to say it since I believe
           | Kaiser originally was one of the opponents of a single payer
           | system but using Kaiser kind of felt like what a government
           | health care system should be. Very low friction. Oh I need
           | blood work or whatever done, walk down the hall. Everything
           | felt more convenient.
        
             | hellbannedguy wrote:
             | It is so much better than driving office to office while
             | not feeling well.
             | 
             | Dealing with ego. Dealing with huge bills even when having
             | good insurance.
             | 
             | I sometimes hear people talk about doctors like they are
             | going to cure you when you need them. The older I get, the
             | more I see the profession as an art.
             | 
             | I remember Lance Armstrong commenting on his cancer
             | treatment. He basically said he knew he had the best
             | medical care because of his wealth. He said driving from
             | doctor to doctor was just depressing/agonizing, and he felt
             | it was unnessary.
        
             | spaetzleesser wrote:
             | Same here. I enjoyed knowing there is one place where I can
             | go and have everything done. They also sent reminders about
             | vaccinations and checkups. I have moved away from CA so I
             | don't have Kaiser anymore. I generally rarely go to a
             | doctor and if I ever get sick I don't even know where to go
             | :-(
        
           | lotsofpulp wrote:
           | The golden days of the doctor "cartel" (and people in the
           | healthcare chain in general) are over.
           | 
           | https://www.beckersasc.com/asc-news/9-cms-pay-cut-for-
           | physic...
           | 
           | The 80s/90s/00s were probably the golden years for them, but
           | they got in the political spotlight, and combined with the
           | decreasing proportion of young to old people, the government
           | is going to push down cuts to whoever lacks political power
           | to push back. Such as smaller businesses like independent
           | doctor offices and pharmacies.
           | 
           | The government has already increased supply by letting Nurse
           | Practitioners and Physician Assistants do stuff that doctors
           | used to do, and I suspect a lot more price discrimination is
           | on the way. Expect the average quality of care to fall (may
           | not be a bad thing if overqualified people were treating pink
           | eye), and paying more will result in being seen by someone
           | more qualified.
        
             | Robotbeat wrote:
             | Increasing the supply doesn't mean the average quality of
             | care will fall.
             | 
             | If I pay doctors $400,000 a year to work 80 hours a week
             | and then double the number of doctors and pay them $200,000
             | a year to work 40 hours per week, the quality of care would
             | almost certainly improve but costs would be constant. And
             | actually, do we pay doctors a premium for those overtime
             | hours where they're actually probably less effective? If
             | so, our costs would go down as quality of care improves.
        
               | ProjectArcturis wrote:
               | In theory, if you want to train twice as many doctors,
               | you have to relax admissions criteria to let in twice as
               | many people, and the new admitees wouldn't have qualified
               | under the previous system.
        
               | convolvatron wrote:
               | you're kind of assuming that the metrics that the use to
               | admit students are predictive of care quality. thats
               | certainly not true, but who knows how not true?
        
               | GloriousKoji wrote:
               | But what if the limiting factor of admission criteria
               | isn't scoring well but things like crippling amount of
               | debt, archaic culture of hazing and adversity to stupid
               | hours?
        
               | Robotbeat wrote:
               | Right. Are doctors ubermensch who are the cream of the
               | crop or did they just have a high tolerance for abuse?
               | I'm not sure being ultra-selective gets you people who
               | are fundamentally better doctors nor are the returns
               | gonna be very linear even if they were. I'd much rather
               | have enough well-rested doctors than have more "select"
               | but highly stressed, sleep deprived doctors.
        
             | ProjectArcturis wrote:
             | I'm kind of surprised that med schools haven't dramatically
             | opened up their admissions, like law schools have over the
             | past 20 years. It's such an obvious source of funds for the
             | school.
        
               | dsr_ wrote:
               | The med schools are accredited by (a body completely
               | governed by) the AMA. Number of seats is part of the
               | accreditation.
               | 
               | The AMA does not want more competition and lower income
               | per doctor.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | AMA claims the real bottleneck is residency funding,
               | since you cannot practice as a doctor without residency,
               | and for some reason, only the federal government funds
               | residencies, and the feds have not changed funding in
               | many, many years.
               | 
               | Also, increasing class sizes is not without its down
               | sides. Pharmacy schools cashed in and blew up the number
               | of pharmacists in the last 10 years, and now the
               | pharmacists' employers have so much power in the
               | negotiations due to so much supply of labor, that they
               | can make pharmacists accept metrics which pharmacists
               | know are excessive and unsafe since no one can possibly
               | do the job properly in the time they are expected to
               | check the medications and counsel people in.
               | 
               | A pharmacist family member says the law is to counsel
               | patients, but the reality is anyone who did that would be
               | fired and replaced so, in reality, people are not getting
               | the counseling they deserve when they pick up the
               | medications, and pharmacists are not able to properly
               | double check the doctors.
        
         | andrelaszlo wrote:
         | I had the same thought, but I can think of two problems with
         | it.
         | 
         | 1. The doctor's stake is pretty limited.
         | 
         | The old royal court doctor model is the perfect model for this.
         | It's based on the doctor having very few (one?) patient. If the
         | patient dies, not only do you risk your substantial income and
         | high status, but you might even lose your life if the royal
         | family gets suspicious enough.
         | 
         | It's a good solution if you're very rich. Much richer than the
         | average doctor.
         | 
         | 2. When you have more than one patient, at some point you
         | probably earn more by treating less.
         | 
         | The less work you spend on each patient, the more patients you
         | can take on. The more patients you can take on, the more you
         | earn. If you simply stop treating patients - "you're perfectly
         | healthy, don't worry" - you can basically take on an unlimited
         | amount of patients and collect their fees until they perish.
         | (This sounds like a caricature of the US insurance system, from
         | my western EU perspective.)
         | 
         | ---
         | 
         | What about this convoluted system:
         | 
         | - The doctors get paid a recurring fee that starts small and
         | increases the longer you keep a patient around. This counters
         | the problem that patients can just be replaced by a younger and
         | healthier patient.
         | 
         | - The doctors get assigned patients randomly. This addresses
         | the problem that doctors would choose young and healthy
         | patients.
         | 
         | - The doctors can only have a certain number of patients at
         | once. This makes each patient more valuable, and the doctor
         | will be incentivized to actually treat patients, instead of
         | having as many as possible.
         | 
         | Oh wait...
         | 
         | Now, the problem is that a young, ambitious, greedy doctor
         | would be incentivized to cull their set of patients and select
         | for the most viable ones in the long run. This actually
         | incentivizes them to kill off patients with minor defects?
        
         | pessimizer wrote:
         | Yeah, I don't get it. If you have infinite resources, and you
         | absolutely know the doctor is competent (a question omitted
         | here that would make this more interesting) just tie the
         | doctor's fate to yours.
         | 
         | I don't know if overpaying will work, because the marginal
         | value of money goes down the more you have. Once your doctor is
         | rich enough, he won't be overly concerned if you die and the
         | checks stop coming in.
         | 
         | The real answer is the action-movie/not-that-uncommon-in-
         | reality answer: Credibly promise to shoot the doctor if you
         | die, or to shoot the doctor's family members.
        
         | cfu28 wrote:
         | This assumes that actions that make a patient happy also make
         | them healthy. There's a risk that pursuing patient happiness
         | can come at the expense of patient health. The doctor may be
         | more inclined to keep a patient from switching doctors to keep
         | getting paid.
        
           | jtbayly wrote:
           | Such as doctors that prescribe sleeping meds to rich clients
           | that... end up dead.
        
         | khafra wrote:
         | For specifically the doctor version of the principle-agent
         | problem, Robin Hanson published an incentive-compatible
         | solution over 25 years ago:
         | http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/buyhealth.html
        
           | shonenknifefan1 wrote:
           | > To cure health care, give your care-givers a clear
           | incentive to keep you well. Make sure that when you lose,
           | they lose, and just as much. Buy lots of life and disability
           | insurance from your care-givers, and have a third party,
           | unable to act against your life or health, pay you to be the
           | beneficiary.
        
             | mattnewton wrote:
             | So, basically bundling insurance with the healthcare
             | provider, like kaiser?
        
               | khafra wrote:
               | The quantitative difference is big enough to be
               | qualitative. You have to buy a lot of life insurance,
               | more than people normally get, to make it work. The
               | disinterested third party beneficiary makes this
               | affordable:
               | 
               | > There are, however, two big problems with this
               | approach. The first is that even though my life may be
               | worth $10 million to me, most of the (huge) insurance
               | premium to pay for this insurance would be wasted from my
               | point of view -- there probably is not one person to whom
               | I would want to give this much money when I die. The
               | other problem is moral hazard -- heavy insurance may
               | reduce my incentive to keep myself healthy, and may even
               | create incentives for my relatives to try and hurt me. It
               | might be a problem if I could only give my doctor a 50
               | percent interest in my life by taking away 50 percent of
               | my own interest, or by giving a minus 50 percent interest
               | to my relatives.
        
             | lupire wrote:
             | Which doctor is selling disability insurance?
        
         | jrm4 wrote:
         | Right? I can't get over the "meta" point here of what we're
         | here doing: This is _not_ a conceptually difficult problem to
         | fix and a whole lot of countries besides the one I live in have
         | solved it quite easily, but here we are having to contend with
         | it. It 's just quite frustrating.
        
         | wayoutthere wrote:
         | I do this!
         | 
         | I've found that my employer-provided health insurance is less
         | than worthless for routine health care. I actually pay less by
         | going to providers who don't accept insurance -- even though I
         | maintain bare-minimum coverage and an HSA. I don't think I used
         | my health insurance at all this year -- at least not enough to
         | come close to meeting the deductible.
         | 
         | My primary care doctor uses this model -- I pay $300/yr for
         | basically unlimited access. I have a therapist who I pay $75 a
         | session. I use GoodRX for prescriptions and get better prices
         | than the post-deductible price on my insurance plan.
         | 
         | Basically, I pay _less_ out of pocket by _not_ using my
         | insurance. I also get to choose my doctors, and they treat me
         | as an actual patient rather than a number. Health insurance in
         | the US is a scam.
        
           | lupire wrote:
           | Thar only wokrs because you don't need substantial
           | healthcare. Like driving a car wothout insurance and not
           | getting crashed.
        
         | apyrros wrote:
         | Actually, we are increasingly doing that already in the US.
         | Value-based healthcare, aka Medicare Advantage uses something
         | called risk adjustment. Payments are based on patient
         | demographics and select disease categories (HCC codes) with
         | bundled payments. The intent is to slowly get rid of fee-for-
         | service healthcare.
        
         | bshep wrote:
         | This reminds me of something I think i heard ( or something
         | similar ) in a movie :
         | 
         | "I'm not going to kill you, but you would surprised how much
         | suffering you can live through."
        
         | thebean11 wrote:
         | That incentivizes doctors to avoid taking on sick patients, as
         | the work/reward ratio is much higher.
        
         | zz865 wrote:
         | Or even better pay nothing and get a government run system that
         | is smart enough to figure out what is important and what is
         | wasteful.
        
           | lupire wrote:
           | Thats a wish, not a plan. Medicare just committed to spend
           | $250 per person (not per patient) per year on an ineffective
           | Alzheimers drug....
           | 
           | https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/11/dubious-56000-alzhei.
           | ..
        
         | colinmhayes wrote:
         | This type of insurance is called capitated, seeing extensive
         | use by medicare and Kaiser Permanente.
        
         | thayne wrote:
         | they also have an incentive to keep you alive as long as
         | possible since they don't get paid if you die.
        
           | sokoloff wrote:
           | Having witnessed the terminal stages of several family
           | members, additional days of being undead is not necessarily
           | desirable for the patient.
        
         | gwerbret wrote:
         | I agree with the idea of paying the doctor a flat fee every
         | month, but in my variant, the doctor has to repay you the
         | entire sum you've paid to date, with 10% interest, if you
         | succumb to any preventable illnesses; in other words, the
         | doctor now has some real skin in the game. S/he becomes
         | motivated not only to keep you well, but to keep the fees
         | reasonable.
        
           | chriscross wrote:
           | That's horribly ignorant considering that many diseases have
           | a large genetic component and people are rarely 100%
           | compliant with the things they need to do to prevent a
           | disease. Even when a doctor lets them know how to prevent the
           | disease. How would this work for a disease, for example, like
           | Alzheimer's where the onset is much earlier in life (40s) but
           | doesn't manifest until much later in life and has no
           | diagnostic test at age 40? What about hypertension where the
           | majority of it is idiopathic? Would the doctor be blamed for
           | all this despite practicing evidenced based medicine? I'd
           | argue that a lot of diseases are this way and placing the
           | blame on a doctor is a way to shift personal responsibility.
        
             | oaktrout wrote:
             | Seconding your view points. If a patient dies from a
             | hypertension related cause (say stroke), and the patient
             | has not followed the strict low salt diet the doctor
             | recommended, does the doctor pay for that? At what point
             | does the doctor stop seeing patients who do not follow
             | their recommendations to the exact letter?
        
               | R0b0t1 wrote:
               | I know you're framing it as patient choice, but it would
               | incentivize doctors to actually want to research new
               | solutions instead of give stale advice that doesn't seem
               | to work.
        
           | gwerbret wrote:
           | Upon reading the responses my earlier comments generated, I
           | suppose I should have disclaimed that I'm seeing this problem
           | as the OP had portrayed it, which is as a thought problem in
           | logic and economics, rather than an actual approach to
           | preventative medicine. As a thought problem, it can be broken
           | into basic, of-necessity simplified elements, e.g.
           | preventable vs. non-preventable illnesses, fee optimization,
           | etc.
           | 
           | The idea of actual healthcare being dependent solely on
           | optimization of greed is, of course, ludicrous.
        
           | dstroot wrote:
           | The doctor will purchase "refund insurance" and pass that
           | cost along in the monthly retainer.
        
             | gruez wrote:
             | Yeah that just passes the buck to someone else (the
             | insurer), who is incentivized to investigate malfeasance.
        
             | gwerbret wrote:
             | Fair point, but if the client does develop a preventable
             | condition, it would be easy to show this is due to
             | dereliction/negligence on the part of the physician, so the
             | insurance would not pay out. If the client came down with a
             | condition and the physician was not negligent, the
             | condition would likely be non-preventable, wherein the
             | refund clause wouldn't apply, anyway. Thus, regardless of
             | outcome, insurance can never pay out, and the physician
             | retains all the liability, i.e. no use for insurance.
        
               | pc86 wrote:
               | How is it "easy" to show negligence?
        
             | catlikesshrimp wrote:
             | Some insurance policies must not exist. Malpractice
             | policies must not exist.
             | 
             | I am sure if I asked my mates they would all disagree with
             | me on this. Bad luck for the patients.
        
               | oaktrout wrote:
               | Without malpractice insurance, would doctors be
               | incentivized to not take on risky patients? Risky could
               | be defined as litigious (I know this patient has sued
               | another doctor before) or medically difficult to treat
               | (this patient needs this surgery but they are at high
               | risk of poor outcome due to their current state of
               | health).
               | 
               | Having sued a doctor once, you might never be able to get
               | medical treatment again.
        
               | pc86 wrote:
               | Which would also disincentivize ridiculous lawsuits that
               | you'd almost certainly lose.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | It would also disincentivize legitimate lawsuits.
        
           | sxg wrote:
           | This is such an oversimplified view of how medicine works.
           | I'm not even sure how to begin a counterargument. In
           | medicine, bad outcomes can occur without being sure of the
           | cause. For example, let's say a patient who currently smokes
           | gets lung cancer. Did the patient get lung cancer from
           | smoking, or is this a sporadic non-smoking related cancer?
           | There's no way to definitively find the answer to that
           | question. But for the sake of discussion, let's say it is due
           | to smoking. Do you fault the patient for smoking and not
           | quitting? Or do you fault the doctor for being unable to
           | convince the patient to quit smoking?
        
           | pc86 wrote:
           | Even for HN this is a pretty shockingly out of touch "I don't
           | know anything about $X but I can figure it out 'from first
           | principles!!1'" type of comment.
        
         | efsavage wrote:
         | If we're trying to handle the case of greedy doctors, why would
         | a doctor accept a very sick patient who is going to require a
         | higher-than average amount of care and probably not live (i.e.
         | pay) as long? If they can't pick their patients, how do you
         | protect the unlucky ones who end up with too many very sick
         | patients?
        
       | bullen wrote:
       | I would say doctors are the politicians of natural sciences, they
       | only act after the fact.
       | 
       | What you need is someone that tells you what do (or most likely
       | not to do) before you get sick.
       | 
       | Herein lies the very big problem, if you don't get sick doctors
       | have no job!
        
       | efitz wrote:
       | The ways to address this problem are "usual and customary[ed-
       | autocorrect] prices", consumer ratings, information transparency,
       | externalities such as courts to punish fraud and malpractice, and
       | skin in the game.
       | 
       | I have thought about this a lot in the context of real estate- up
       | to recently, agents typically got a fixed commission (generally
       | 3% each for buyer and seller in the places I've lived).
       | 
       | There is a moral hazard in that, assuming that the agent can
       | impact my sales price favorably with effort on their part. If
       | they're helping me buy a house, and they get a percentage, then
       | it's in their interest for me to overpay. If I'm selling a house,
       | then the margin for increasing the sale price above market value
       | is probably not worth the effort ($300 for every $10k increase in
       | sale price).
       | 
       | My solution (I have not tried it yet) is to structure a sales rep
       | contract such that we agree on a target price for the standard
       | commission, but increase the commission greatly for the sale
       | price amount above the target price. Maybe 3% up to the sale
       | price and 50% above that. That's what I term "skin in the game".
       | 
       | Assuming I have done a minimum of homework (looked for agent
       | ratings and avoided bad or inexperienced agents; looked at
       | comparables on Zillow to make sure the proposed sale price is
       | market appropriate, etc.) then I should get a good outcome.
       | 
       | Doctors and state license boards often make it difficult to get
       | informed consumer type information on doctors. Our insane medical
       | system in the US almost never supports price transparency. So we
       | have a long way to go there.
       | 
       | Note one other thing. I am trying to optimize for the best
       | outcome I can assuming limited resources. If you have unlimited
       | resources then you can hire and fire lots of doctors, overpay for
       | performance, and generally do things that are unavailable to mere
       | mortals. Also I am not assuming or eve trying to achieve perfect
       | results (most beneficial result available at the lowest price
       | point). I think that is a fool's game.
        
       | treeman79 wrote:
       | I blew half a million of healthcare companies money searching for
       | answers. Which I eventually got. Entire time desperately trying
       | to find a doctor to work with me. Instead had to educate myself
       | for a couple of years. I would have loved to just pay a doctor a
       | grand or more a month for a few hours to go over tests and
       | discuss next steps. Would have been drastically cheaper for all
       | involved.
        
       | durnygbur wrote:
       | I wonder how software world has the most sophisticated practices
       | and patterns for architectures, communication, and arbitration,
       | yet we are played by lawyers and doctors like blind children.
       | Once I was looking to address my non-obvious health issue.
       | Insurances, appointments, referrals, hospital, ended up with an
       | obsolete surgical procedure leaving visible incision scars. That
       | was in Germany. Somewhere at the back of my head I was thinking
       | "I'm smart, you're smart, we're pals and I can trust you right?".
       | Now I'm just left with infinite hatred and distrust towards
       | greedy medical frauds.
        
       | Vecr wrote:
       | This problem appears to be highly contrived, why are there only
       | two options (healthy or treat), why is the detective a clone of
       | the doctor, why can't anyone use a true quantum random number
       | generator, and how exactly are the two doctors supposed to act in
       | lockstep as actual agents?
        
       | sampo wrote:
       | > Should you _trust_ someone 's advice, when you can't pinpoint
       | their motivation? As a Ph.D. student, I run into this problem
       | around three to five times a week, when interacting with
       | colleagues or my advisor.
       | 
       | Maybe this should be named "The greedy thesis advisor problem"?
        
         | throwawaygh wrote:
         | This is very different from the Greedy Doctor problem.
         | 
         | Why? Because, generally speaking, the answer to this question
         | is "it doesn't matter". A student will never get a job in
         | academia without their thesis advisor's good word.
         | 
         | If a student is ready to leave and their thesis advisor isn't
         | ready to let them go, their best option -- assuming they have
         | at least a few publications (for CS) -- is to find an industry
         | job and say "Sorry, my hands are tied on the start date and I
         | need a better paying job for personal reasons. I really wish I
         | could write a better thesis but I think there's enough work
         | here at least to graduate."
         | 
         | (BTW: industry is much better than academia. The work is more
         | interesting, the teaching/mentoring is more rewarding, and
         | you'll make enough to retire in your 40s instead of desperately
         | clinging to a job in the increasingly MBA-ified Higher
         | Education Industry until your 80s. The "Academic Life" sucks
         | pre-tenure anyways. If what you want is the so-called
         | comfortable and care-free Full Professor days, just get
         | financial independence in industry first and then go be a
         | professor of practice or even ad junct somewhere for the
         | healthcare and vacation money... which, aside from pay, are
         | both _actually_ low effort and care free!)
        
       | recursivedoubts wrote:
       | They constantly try to escape       From the darkness outside and
       | within       By dreaming of systems so perfect        that no one
       | will need to be good.       But the man that is will shadow
       | The man that pretends to be.                              --TS
       | Eliot
        
       | hereme888 wrote:
       | Or...do something along the lines of what the healthcare world
       | has already come up with: doctors get paid for the quality of
       | care they give, rather than just quantity.
        
         | snegu wrote:
         | This is exactly what I was waiting to see at the bottom of the
         | article. It's what Medicare is trying to move towards in the US
         | - doctors are paid more if their patients are healthy (as
         | measured by biomarkers, time in hospital, etc.)
        
       | Eliezer wrote:
       | Conditional prediction markets on future health/QoL observables
       | if visiting alternative doctors.
        
       | BerislavLopac wrote:
       | The ideal solution is to move to a country with a great public
       | health care (say, Denmark or Switzerland).
        
         | zip1234 wrote:
         | Countries with public health care have problems with health
         | care as well. It is not a silver bullet. The incentives are
         | different but it is still an incentive driven system.
        
           | spaetzleesser wrote:
           | Very true. But it seems these countries try to keep the
           | system accessible and affordable for patients. The US system
           | seems designed to keep profits for providers, instances and
           | employers while the patient has to pay without having having
           | any market power. From a cost and transparency perspective I
           | think it would be hard to design a worse system than the US
           | system.
        
         | gruez wrote:
         | Isn't that just handwaving the problem away? eg. "high
         | corruption? the ideal solution to move to a country with a
         | great civil service"
        
           | BerislavLopac wrote:
           | Generally speaking, absolutely. But the original problem
           | statement begins with "you are very rich", which changes the
           | rules a bit.
        
             | skeeter2020 wrote:
             | Very rich people will do far better in a private or blended
             | system than a country with only a public system. Your best
             | approach would be to triage your own health requirements:
             | (1) spend as much as needed on preventative & health
             | components, (2) pay a retainer or monthly fee to a private
             | health network, (3) pay cash immediately for any rare,
             | critical or emergent needs. You can get #1 in lots of
             | countries, #2 in fewer and #3 in a handful including but
             | not restricted to the US. As a Canadian, if you are super-
             | wealthy you need to likely leave the country for #3.
        
         | dang wrote:
         | Please don't take HN threads on generic tangents. This isn't a
         | substantive response to the article; it just points towards a
         | version of the same discussion people have been repeating for
         | years.
         | 
         | Such massive generic topics are like black holes that suck in
         | unsuspecting threads that fly too close. Solution: consciously
         | steer clear.
         | 
         | https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...
         | 
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        
       | jeffrogers wrote:
       | Maybe start by actually hiring a doctor, a person you can form a
       | relationship with, rather than a health care system/company. The
       | doctor may charge high fees, but their behavior is more likely to
       | be bound by the relationship, and societal expectations around
       | decency and respect between people. This dynamic does not exist
       | between companies (read health care systems) and the people they
       | supposedly serve, but both internal and external corporate
       | incentives -however well meaning or small when considered alone-
       | come together to extract as much money as possible.
        
         | ubermonkey wrote:
         | In the US, this model is usually called "concierge medicine."
         | It sounds weird but it's exactly what you want for a GP
         | relationship IF you can handle the fees ($1-2K annually, and
         | that's going to be out of pocket).
        
       | mindslight wrote:
       | The answer is not to play games with the payment as if it's the
       | only thing you can engage with - it's to check the contents of
       | their work.
       | 
       | P != NP, as far as we've discovered. As a non-doctor, I can still
       | understand medical conditions. What I don't have are the
       | heuristics to diagnose a medical condition. The way I see it, I'm
       | hiring a doctor (or any other skilled knowledge professional) for
       | their ability to generate a _proof certificate_ (in the
       | algorithms sense) that convinces me of their declared diagnosis.
       | Any consultant who asserts  "The answer is X" without being able
       | to explain that answer to an intelligent non-domain-expert has
       | not done their job.
        
       | jmull wrote:
       | Not sure this is all that useful or interesting as thought
       | experiment...
       | 
       | That the Doctor is greedy is in the premise, but why would anyone
       | settle for a greedy doctor at all?
        
       | motohagiography wrote:
       | This seems like a mutual information problem.
       | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_information)
       | 
       | The price leverage of the doctor is proportional to how much
       | information the doctor has about how much money you have. If you
       | can't keep it secret, you can add noise proportional to how much
       | information the doctor likely has to cancel it out. The resulting
       | "fair" price will be a function of the net shared information
       | each side if the noise were removed.
       | 
       | Negotiations theory was a pet interest of mine, and I came to
       | believe that in zero sum adversarial bargaining situations like
       | that, the domainant position was the side with the most
       | information, so the best strategy was to use noise to diminish
       | their information, and then use whatever information you retained
       | as arbitrage. If you think of noise in terms of signal entropy,
       | and low entropy as signal, you can figure out whether their
       | gambit is signal or noise by repsonding with noise and gauging
       | the entropy of their response. This is crazy armchair stuff that
       | nobody articultes, but variations of it gets used in bureaucracy
       | and politics all the time, it's basically the game theory of
       | gaslighting.
        
       | Zababa wrote:
       | Here's my solution: each day you rate how you feel from 1 to 100,
       | 100 being the best. The doctor is paid how you feel * something
       | fixed.
        
       | staticman2 wrote:
       | One obvious solution is to have the diagnosing doctor not be the
       | treating doctor- and the diagnosing doctor doesn't get paid more
       | for a positive diagnosis.
        
       | bparsons wrote:
       | Pay doctors a fair salary in a properly resourced, publicly owned
       | system.
       | 
       | This is cheaper, and produces better outcomes than the
       | alternative.
        
       | xondono wrote:
       | Someone uses "greedy doctor" as an example to talk about an easy
       | to understand version of the Control Problem, and the comments
       | make it into a discussion of healthcare systems.
       | 
       | I'm starting to think most readers on HN don't really read the
       | articles and go straight into the comment section..
        
         | darkerside wrote:
         | They might as well have used abortion as an example. The choice
         | of analogy distracts from the content of the article itself.
         | 
         | Edit: Part of the problem is that the analogy is such an
         | amateur caricature as to be offensive. I am not a doctor.
        
         | CPLX wrote:
         | Welcome to Hacker News, a popular discussion forum where
         | vigorous conversations are initiated using the text of recent
         | headlines.
        
           | dang wrote:
           | " _Please don 't sneer, including at the rest of the
           | community._"
           | 
           | It's a particularly low-value form of comment, and also very
           | common, I think mostly because we try to secure our identity
           | in opposition to others. Since this mechanism appears to work
           | the same way in everyone, such comments are repetitive and
           | extremely tedious.
           | 
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        
             | CPLX wrote:
             | Point taken! Just for reference though it wasn't a sneer at
             | all. I love HN and think this format where people get into
             | a broader discussion about the general themes implied by
             | the article, rather than stick narrowly to the actual text
             | of the story, has been a successful one.
        
         | SuoDuanDao wrote:
         | I noticed that when the 'laws of stupidity' article [1] came up
         | here. I'm very familiar with it as I read it when I was young
         | and impressionable, almost all the comments had nothing to do
         | with the substance of the article.
         | 
         | What makes it more poignant is that I typically go straight to
         | the comments myself, assuming that intelligent commentary on an
         | article will convey what the article was about faster than the
         | article itself. Which would probably be a good assumption - if
         | I was the only member of the commentariate to make it.
         | 
         | [1]http://harmful.cat-v.org/people/basic-laws-of-human-
         | stupidit...
        
           | ashtonkem wrote:
           | There's a tragedy of the commons going on here. The best
           | outcome as a group is if everyone reads the article. The best
           | outcome individually is if you're the only one that doesn't
           | read the article, then you get all the informed comments
           | without spending the time to read it personally. The actual
           | outcome is that very few people read the article, and the
           | entire discussion is about the title and how people
           | interpreted it.
        
             | JoshCole wrote:
             | I don't think it is true that the best outcome individually
             | is if you're the only one to read the comments. In the
             | wisdom of the crowds formulation the average is closest,
             | but on Hacker News and similar websites there is a
             | popularity contest which biases the responses. The average
             | over a biased sample doesn't have the same mathematical
             | reasoning suggesting it is better than any individuals
             | estimate.
             | 
             | To use a specific example there was once a claim about a
             | board seat for Tesla going to someone that people tend to
             | dislike. The comments were largely in agreement that this
             | would happen and it would happen basically because it was
             | outraging and seemed evil which agreed with the commenters
             | preconceptions. Anyone who posted contrary to this - which
             | I did, quoting a primary source which disagreed with the
             | claim, got downvoted. Ultimately I was right and the board
             | seat didn't go to the 'evil' person.
             | 
             | This isn't intended to be a critique of me getting
             | downvoted. Instead I'm trying to point out that if you read
             | all the comments the consensus in the comments doesn't
             | approximate the correct answer. So what do you have to do?
             | You have to go primary sources in order to be able to get
             | an unbiased estimator. Maybe the comments link to one,
             | which is nice, but notice: you can't rely on the comments
             | alone. Which means it was the people who read the primary
             | sources, not the people who read the comments, which get
             | the best outcome individually.
             | 
             | Unfortunately, the people who are doing this aren't
             | becoming popular for doing this when it helps them. Quite
             | the opposite. When this is effective, it is effective
             | entirely because it is not in line with the popular
             | opinion.
        
         | dfxm12 wrote:
         | HN doesn't want to talk about the control problem, HN wants to
         | discuss health care. -\\_(tsu)_/-
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2021-11-19 23:01 UTC)