[HN Gopher] A 1980s space telescope may have seen planet nine
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       A 1980s space telescope may have seen planet nine
        
       Author : starwind
       Score  : 64 points
       Date   : 2021-11-16 20:52 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (gizmodo.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (gizmodo.com)
        
       | starwind wrote:
       | Relevant part:
       | 
       | For the recent work, [Michael] Rowan-Robinson redid his search
       | from nearly 40 years ago and found three points in the data from
       | late summer 1983 that indicate some object moving across the sky.
       | The data sources sit low on the galactic plane, though, meaning
       | that the satellite was taking the data through plenty of dusty,
       | cloudy material that can emit infrared light. In other words, the
       | work is something of a long shot. And Rowan-Robinson is well
       | aware of that. "Given the poor quality of the IRAS detections, at
       | the very limit of the survey, and in a very difficult part of the
       | sky for far infrared detections, the probability of the candidate
       | being real is not overwhelming," he wrote in his paper.
        
         | _Microft wrote:
         | Isn't that bigger news than it sounds at first? Part of the
         | problem of finding planet nine must be knowing where it
         | currently is on its orbit. A few possible observations should
         | help to narrow down the space in which to look for it by a lot
         | (rather: would make it almost clear where it currently is).
         | Maybe JWST could be of help with testing the hypothesis that
         | these early infrared observations of a moving object were of
         | planet nine - once it has finally and savely launched and begun
         | its operations?
        
           | xook wrote:
           | Would have commented this same thing. It should be a matter
           | of translating the coordinates into a search pattern to look
           | at with JWST.
        
       | api wrote:
       | If they don't name it Yuggoth I will be disappointed.
       | 
       | https://lovecraft.fandom.com/wiki/Yuggoth
        
         | Hemospectrum wrote:
         | There's all kinds of silly names they could borrow from stories
         | hypothesizing its existence. Nemesis, Nibiru, Vulcan, and
         | Planet X, just for starters. But in all likelihood it will end
         | up as something much more anodyne.
        
           | BitwiseFool wrote:
           | I think the IAU will only accept names from Mythology.
        
       | gre wrote:
       | Here's a youtube video by Anton Petrov describing the paper
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSyAO4fGZOE
        
         | ziddoap wrote:
         | He's always quick on these, and always with quality videos.
         | 
         | Anyone with an interest in space who has not watched any of
         | Anton's videos are seriously missing out.
        
           | Diederich wrote:
           | So say we all.
           | 
           | I watch all of his videos and it's always an interesting,
           | learning experience.
        
       | lutorm wrote:
       | Lol, Hubble is a "1980s space telescope". It was launched in
       | April 1990....
        
         | lp0_on_fire wrote:
         | Amazing how they could design and built such a device in four
         | months...
         | 
         | /s
        
       | HenryKissinger wrote:
       | If Planet 9 contains rare earth metals, mining and manufacturing
       | facilities could be built there. This should help alleviate the
       | chip shortage.
        
         | echelon wrote:
         | We have plenty of rare earths here on our homeworld. If we run
         | out (which we won't), we'll scavenge before we build the
         | trillions of dollars of infrastructure necessary to mine the
         | solar system.
        
         | guerrilla wrote:
         | Rare Earth metals aren't actually that rare. We even have a lot
         | of big mines that are closed right now because its not
         | profitable enough yet and many other sites enrirely
         | undeveloped.
        
         | gameswithgo wrote:
         | Is this performance art? Do some napkin math on the quantities
         | of fuel alone required to do this.
        
         | kjs3 wrote:
         | Or we could, you know, build mining and manufacturing
         | facilities on a planet that's, say a couple of AU away, instead
         | of a couple of hundred AU. There's reasons we've done neither.
        
         | nsf39k wrote:
         | The technology and infrastructure needed to reach Planet 9,
         | build a mining outpost, then transport everything back at a
         | _profitable_ cost is likely decades if not centuries away.
         | That's not counting the fact that Planet 9 is so far away that
         | getting there with current technology is a lengthy affair in
         | itself (the New Horizons probe wouldn't even be halfway to a
         | theoretical Planet 9, and it's been flying for over 15 years!)
         | 
         | Not saying I don't want this to happen - I would love nothing
         | more than to have humanity push out into the solar system, but
         | recycling or scavenging is infinitely more of an realistic
         | option.
        
         | pfdietz wrote:
         | Rare earths are neither particularly rare, nor particularly
         | likely to be unusually abundant on a Planet 9.
         | 
         | However!
         | 
         | A Mars or Earth-sized planet sufficiently far out in the solar
         | system might be sufficiently cool to be able to retain helium
         | in its atmosphere, without being a gas giant planet. If so, it
         | might conceivably be the best place in the solar system to
         | obtain 3He, an isotope that has considerable attractiveness for
         | use in fusion reactors. A D-3He fusion rocket might even
         | provide a nice way of getting out there and back in a
         | reasonable time.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | WarOnPrivacy wrote:
       | _The Vera Rubin Observatory in Chile is under construction and
       | will image the entire sky every week using the largest digital
       | camera ever built._
       | 
       | Hopefully searches along the plane of the ecliptic won't be
       | sabotaged by Starlink or other LEO satellites.
        
         | tick_tock_tick wrote:
         | Large facilities were never threatened by Starlink as they
         | easily compensate the issue was amateur's and very small
         | facilities.
        
           | spacemark wrote:
           | Not true at all, totally depends on the type of observation
           | campaign. Plenty of big observatory projects are negatively
           | impacted by the eternal march of "progress."
        
             | tick_tock_tick wrote:
             | > "progress."
             | 
             | Do you really think Starlink is not a step forward? It is
             | realistically the only path to get the whole world access
             | to the internet.
        
       | croddin wrote:
       | If this object did exist, wouldn't it be classified as a dwarf
       | planet since, like Pluto, with a highly elliptical orbit it would
       | be difficult to clear it of other Kuiper belt objects?
        
         | alex_young wrote:
         | An object with multiple Earth masses could hardly be classified
         | as a dwarf planet.
        
           | vikingerik wrote:
           | It very well could. Defining a planet as major or dwarf goes
           | by its ability or inability to "clear the neighborhood", to
           | control or remove objects of smaller mass in its orbital
           | area.
           | 
           | 225 AU is a long way, and the volume of space to clear goes
           | up quadratically with distance; this object would have 50,000
           | times more space to clear than does Earth. The orbital period
           | also goes up with distance [edit, reply is right that it's
           | the 3/2th power], so so does the time between interactions
           | with any particular object.
           | 
           | Multiply those together and you would have an object more
           | than cubically (3.5th power) less effective than Earth at
           | clearing its neighborhood over time, such that it may not
           | have happened in the lifetime of the solar system.
        
             | lanna wrote:
             | > The orbital period also goes up quadratically with
             | distance
             | 
             | By Kepler's Third Law, isn't it proportional to the square
             | root of the cube (3/2th power) of the distance?
        
             | ithinkso wrote:
             | It's on a plane. Circumference goes up lineary
        
               | vikingerik wrote:
               | It's undefined whether "clearing the neighborhood"
               | involves the spheroid at that distance or just the plane.
               | It hasn't come up, since all eight known major planets do
               | satisfy the three-dimensional criterion. We'd probably
               | revise or clarify the definition if we discovered an
               | object that cleared its plane but not its volume.
        
           | kbelder wrote:
           | "A "dwarf planet" is a celestial body that (a) is in orbit
           | around the Sun, (b) has sufficient mass for its self-gravity
           | to overcome rigid body forces so that it assumes a
           | hydrostatic equilibrium (nearly round) shape, (c) has not
           | cleared the neighbourhood around its orbit, and (d) is not a
           | satellite."
           | 
           | According the the wrong-headed AIU definition. So, yes,
           | _Jupiter_ could be a dwarf planet, if it hasn't cleared it's
           | orbital neighborhood for some reason.
        
         | skykooler wrote:
         | I think the criteria are more along the lines of
         | "gravitationally dominate its orbit", which due to the
         | perturbations of KBOs this object would do. Otherwise,
         | basically all planets would be demoted (e.g. Neptune has not
         | cleared its orbit because Pluto is there, Jupiter hasn't
         | because of the Trojans, etc.)
        
         | slyall wrote:
         | I asked Mike Brown this on twitter earlier this year and he
         | said it will have cleared out it's orbit so that won't be a
         | problem.
         | 
         | " definitely clears! "
         | 
         | https://twitter.com/plutokiller/status/1433802812945625095
        
         | odyssey7 wrote:
         | The sufficient-but-not-necessary conditions for identifying a
         | planet are called into question as a workable definition once
         | more.
         | 
         | We've duck-typed the solar system, I guess.
        
         | readthenotes1 wrote:
         | "Scientists who search for Planet Nine estimate that its mass
         | is several times bigger than Earth's... "
         | 
         | So no. It won't be a dwarf planet.
        
       | mgaunard wrote:
       | There's always something weird beyond Uranus.
        
       | worewood wrote:
       | That subtitle was in no way accidental.
        
         | bshipp wrote:
         | I might physically appear be middle-aged but the 12-year-old in
         | me snickered loudly.
        
         | ptidhomme wrote:
         | Should have been Neptune right.
        
       | nashashmi wrote:
       | Honest question:
       | 
       | Can't the oddity of planet orbits also be explained by a sun in
       | motion causing the orbits to be a little dragged shape? The
       | direction of drag is probably the ghost planet 9?
        
       | smlacy wrote:
       | Am I the only one who's mildly annoyed by the 9th planet being
       | referred to as Planet X?
       | 
       | Seems like "Planet Ix" (same pronunciation!) would have been a
       | better name?
        
         | cheaprentalyeti wrote:
         | I just bent space from Ix. Many new machines there.
        
         | kjs3 wrote:
         | The theory was proposed and it was anointed 'Planet X' when
         | Pluto was the 9th planet, with X as the Roman numeral for 10.
         | Now it's a play on 'X' being something unknown. Nothing to get
         | annoyed about.
        
         | lainga wrote:
         | The designation was not a Roman numeral but Lowell's
         | designation for "unknown". It would have been the 9th planet if
         | discovered, at the time Lowell coined it, anyway
        
           | usefulcat wrote:
           | Pluto was still considered a planet in the eighties, so at
           | that point an additional planet (if discovered) would have
           | been the 10th planet.
        
             | Asraelite wrote:
             | Pluto was discovered in 1930. The term was coined decades
             | before that.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | rich_sasha wrote:
         | I think it's a semi-deliberate pun. It was Planet 10 when
         | people started looking for it. Then it would be "Planet 9",
         | which is confusing. So they called it then "Planet X" as in
         | 'ex', nerdily harking back to the good old days when Pluto was
         | still a planet.
        
       | tectonic wrote:
       | Mike Brown recently wrote a summary of his and Konstantin
       | Batygin's paper 'The orbit of Planet Nine'. By looking at Kuiper
       | belt objects (KBOs) whose orbits appear skewed by the invisible
       | gravity of a possible Planet Nine, accounting for observation
       | bias, and running a ton of simulations and MCMC, they concluded:
       | if it exists, Planet Nine has a mass of 6.2 (+2.2/-1.3) Earth
       | masses and a perihelion (closest approach to the Sun) of 300
       | (+85/-60) AU. The median distance at aphelion is around 500 AU.
       | Those are not small error bars, but they do constrain the search,
       | and this proposed finding of 225+-15 AU and a mass of 3-5 ME
       | could just ~barely~ fit.
       | 
       | The summary: https://findplanetnine.blogspot.com/2021/08/the-
       | orbit-of-pla...
       | 
       | We've been covering this search in Orbital Index
       | (https://orbitalindex.com), subscribe if you want updates.
        
         | staticautomatic wrote:
         | Perhaps a dumb question, but if we have some idea of where it
         | was and its probable orbit back then, then why don't we have
         | some idea of where it is now?
        
         | tectonic wrote:
         | Also, Mike Brown's free 'The Science of the Solar System'
         | course on Coursera is excellent. Highly recommended.
         | https://www.coursera.org/learn/solar-system
        
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       (page generated 2021-11-16 23:00 UTC)