[HN Gopher] COP26 agrees new global climate deal
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       COP26 agrees new global climate deal
        
       Author : blacktulip
       Score  : 31 points
       Date   : 2021-11-13 19:54 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.bbc.co.uk)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.bbc.co.uk)
        
       | blacktulip wrote:
       | The language that has been agreed on for coal and fossil fuel
       | subsidies has been "further watered down as the result of an
       | untransparent process".
       | 
       | >The Indian delegate has just called for a change to the wording
       | of the draft climate agreement.
       | 
       | >He asks for the line to call for the "phase-down" not the
       | "phase-out" of unabated coal power.
       | 
       | >This would be a major change to the text.
       | 
       | >The line around coal and fossil fuels is seen as unprecedented
       | language in a COP agreement.
        
       | yesbut wrote:
       | Binding?
        
         | kelseyfrog wrote:
         | Not unless the Westphalian model is deconstructed.
        
       | MaxGanzII wrote:
       | The Paris agreement has not been kept to.
       | 
       | This agreement will not be kept to.
       | 
       | What will happen is climate change will continue, perhaps
       | accelerating a bit more slowly than it would otherwise have done,
       | becoming more and more destructive and harmful, until the
       | situation is so up-front right-now deadly serious that action is
       | finally taken, by which time action will not matter, because of
       | the huge lag between cutting emissions and reduction in the rate
       | of climate change.
       | 
       | What will be needed at that point is geo-engineering, on a global
       | scale. The technology for this does not exist, it will need to be
       | invented, and then cost-reduced, and then deployed on a global
       | scale on a point-blank timescale - like going from zero to
       | manufacturing every single car in the world in five or ten years.
       | I have no hope this will actually work, and it's madness for
       | civilization as we know it, and to avoid the deaths of billions,
       | to depend upon it.
        
         | ahevia wrote:
         | I agree with you except the last part. We are certainly on
         | track to experience the worse case scenario and have to
         | fallback on geoengineering. However there is work we can do to
         | start testing geoengineering in the field today. Some countries
         | like the UAE already work on cloud seeding pilot projects & the
         | cooling effects/mechanics of volcanos are still being
         | understood.
         | 
         | I am hopeful that the generation of leaders who will be in
         | power by then will have what it takes to deploy even a fraction
         | of a geoengineering solution. What the solar geoengineering
         | field needs today is funding for research & modeling methods
        
       | syshum wrote:
       | None of these agreements are worth the paper they are printed on
       | 
       | The only realistic solution from global warming will not come
       | from government action, or attempting to force nations into
       | economic untenable positions that have the effect of lowering
       | living standards for their populations.
       | 
       | The only realistic solution is via technological innovation where
       | by coal, oil, etc are made obsolete by natural market forces, not
       | artificial tax schemes, fines, or other such agreements.
       | 
       | People that continue down the path that making these fuels more
       | expensive by artificial government actions will continue to be
       | disappointed in the results, as people need to heat their home,
       | move goods, etc and they will always want do to that by the
       | cheapest means, injecting government policies that simply
       | increase prices of those basic needs of society to make
       | alternatives more attractive will never ever be popular with the
       | majority citizens of any nation which is why nations look to
       | water down the language.
       | 
       | This is a PR event with no substance, like most international
       | agreements.
        
         | framecowbird wrote:
         | I have three counter points.
         | 
         | First, my concern with technical innovation is that it will
         | simply be exploited for increased output. If the process for
         | making widgets is made twice as efficient, people will make
         | twice the widgets and pollute just as much.
         | 
         | Second, in your example of coal being made obsolete by market
         | forces: governments are already skewing these forces with
         | massive subsidies for fossil fuels. We need governments to stop
         | doing that.
         | 
         | Third, bringing new technology to market requires huge
         | investments and risks. We need governments to incentivize and
         | support this development so that it can happen as quickly as
         | possible. Free markets are not some efficient force that just
         | always magically do the right thing when left to their own
         | devices. They are marred by countless modes of failure.
         | 
         | The underlying social and political issues are almost
         | intractable, but they cannot be ignored just because it's too
         | difficult. I don't believe we can simply technology our way out
         | of this.
        
           | syshum wrote:
           | >>Second, in your example of coal being made obsolete by
           | market forces: governments are already skewing these forces
           | with massive subsidies for fossil fuels. We need governments
           | to stop doing that.
           | 
           | 100% agree, my entire post is about government inaction... My
           | ideal government does nothing ;) that that applies to both
           | sides of this, they should neither subsidize nor fine
           | technologies. It should be up purely to market forces.
           | 
           | >>Third, bringing new technology to market requires huge
           | investments and risks. We need governments to incentivize and
           | support this development so that it can happen as quickly as
           | possible
           | 
           | This has never been true for any advancement, Governments are
           | TERRIBLE at picking winner and losers from a technology
           | standpoint (see Ethanol) , and often time they SLOW not
           | accelerate advancement. It has been proven in many sectors,
           | including energy production, that once the government gets
           | out of the way real progress begins.
           | 
           | >I don't believe we can simply technology our way out of
           | this.
           | 
           | All of human history proves you wrong, but this time is the
           | one time we should ignore history right?
        
             | xg15 wrote:
             | > _All of human history proves you wrong, but this time is
             | the one time we should ignore history right?_
             | 
             | Except all the actual scientists are agreeing with GP.
             | 
             | The "tech will save us" mantra seems to come mostly from
             | business types and libertarian pundits, not from the people
             | actually working on those technologies.
        
             | sofixa wrote:
             | > This has never been true for any advancement, Governments
             | are TERRIBLE at picking winner and losers from a technology
             | standpoint (see Ethanol) , and often time they SLOW not
             | accelerate advancement. It has been proven in many sectors,
             | including energy production, that once the government gets
             | out of the way real progress begins.
             | 
             | You probably know this, but without government intervention
             | we'd still have leaded petrol, and renewables wouldn't have
             | been as developed without the massive subsidies.
        
               | syshum wrote:
               | Do we really know this? For decades various government
               | agencies shielded many companies from liability, and
               | continued to make public statements that leaded gas was
               | "safe".
               | 
               | in the 70s' public pressure, and outcry became large
               | enough that companies started phasing out leaded gas as
               | customers were demanded alternatives, it is at this point
               | that government, working with industry developed the
               | phase out plan that the public was demanded.
               | 
               | This is often how regulations go, technology advances (in
               | this case alternative anti-knock additives), public
               | pressure builds, and at a critical junction industry
               | allows (yes allows) government to "pass" regulation
               | outlining something they were already going to do anyway
               | based on public pressure.
               | 
               | Now often the question is well if they were going to do
               | it anyway why would they have government pass regulation.
               | That is easy to answer because there is always some fear
               | that some company will buck the trend, large companies
               | hate competition but they can not coordinate on their own
               | as that would be anti-trust violations, Thus government
               | provides a nice avenue to ensure no competition on some
               | matters or topics
               | 
               | This is why facebook is currently asking the government
               | for regulation. This is why Amazon supports a national
               | sales tax, and why Walmart now supports increasing the
               | minimum wage...
        
             | gefhfff wrote:
             | In Germany the government went out of the way when it came
             | to digital technology Look where we ended up
        
           | martythemaniak wrote:
           | To your first point, yes it will. The effect has a name:
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rebound_effect_(conservation)
           | 
           | This a good thing. The point of taming climate change isn't
           | to inflict random punishment on people, it is to stop
           | changing the climate. I drive an EV powered by carbon-free
           | electricity. Political programs that are aimed at curbing how
           | much I (and other people) move around aren't going to get
           | voted in.
        
             | xg15 wrote:
             | Except, it's often not even caused by "people" (i.e.
             | consumers) but by businesses and the general growth-above-
             | all-else mindset: If we could produce a widget at half the
             | resource cost and even if there were no demand for twice as
             | many widgets, companies would try to drive up demand for
             | widgets, _then_ produce twice as many widgets - because
             | this is the only way growth can be realized.
        
             | reitzensteinm wrote:
             | I'm curious how you're sourcing carbon free electricity -
             | would you mind elaborating.
        
         | varelse wrote:
         | But at this point you don't actually need to subsidize solar
         | with respect to coal you just have to discontinue all coal and
         | oil subsidies and the free market does this organically.
         | 
         | There are places where nuclear makes more sense but now that
         | solar has dropped in price by 10x it is incredibly competitive.
         | Can't we just let the free market work this out?
        
           | have_faith wrote:
           | What are the consequences to the poor of removing these
           | subsidies in the short term? It reminds me of Chesterton's
           | fence. It doesn't feel like a problem of markets, it seems
           | like a problem of will from people in power. What's the
           | guarantee that the free market will move in a favourable
           | direction with regards to the environment?
        
             | varelse wrote:
             | Because people are cheap and they don't like spending money
             | and as soon as coal and oil are expensive they'll stop
             | using it just like when you tell them they're fired if they
             | don't get vaccinated most of them get vaccinated but please
             | more downvotes because you want the world to work
             | differently even though it doesn't.
             | 
             | And by people I mean the 0.1 percenters who provide
             | electricity and love those dividends they got off the backs
             | of the rest of us not upgrading their systems and then
             | whined about bankruptcy the minute anyone tried to hold
             | them accountable.
             | 
             | We're talking the same people who now want to put a tax on
             | going off grid and installing solar because reasons and
             | racism and s___
             | 
             | https://calcoastnews.com/2021/11/pge-claims-home-solar-is-
             | ra...
             | 
             | I mean if coal is such a great solution why isn't it
             | competitive and why do you hate free markets? Starting to
             | think you might actually hate freedom and America. What
             | could be more freedom(tm) than an open level playing field
             | competition for our future?
        
               | syshum wrote:
               | >>Because people are cheap and they don't like spending
               | money and as soon as coal and oil are expensive they'll
               | stop using it just like when you tell them they're fired
               | if they don't get vaccinated most of them get vaccinated
               | 
               | While true, it does not make these actions ethical. Using
               | threats of violence( and yes the mandates are threats of
               | violence) to obtain a result you desire is unethical no
               | matter how much you believe that action to be necessary.
               | Once you use coercion via state violence to get your way
               | you have lost all moral and ethical authority.
               | 
               | >>And by people I mean the 0.1 percenters
               | 
               | The problem here is the comment you were replying to
               | asked about the poor, who if their heat bill goes up by
               | 20% will have to choose between food and heat, will have
               | to tell their kids "no Christmas for you this year" etc.
               | 
               | You seemly have no concern for these people.
               | 
               | To be clear, I am on your side when it comes to ending
               | subsidies, though all subsidies including though on
               | "green" energy as well
               | 
               | I just do not think your argumentation is valid or going
               | to win the hearts and minds of anyone
        
       | wiz21c wrote:
       | OK, I'm the president of a huge country. 50% of its population
       | tells me it wants me to leave fossil fuel. I write down my plan
       | in a COP26 agreement. That plan is everything but leaving the
       | fossil fuel.
       | 
       | I sleep well at night because I absolutely don't represent my
       | citizen's choice (cynical scenario)
       | 
       | OR I know something they don't know which allows me to sleep
       | well... (hopeful scenario)
        
         | im3w1l wrote:
         | Biden is 78 years old, Putin is 69. Xi Jinping is 68. Ram Nath
         | Kovind is 76.
        
         | ahelwer wrote:
         | Not very mysterious. The reason you were elected was due to an
         | intensely-expensive PR and media campaign. This requires a lot
         | of money. A potential source of this money is a small group of
         | people who financially benefit from the country's use of fossil
         | fuels, and who are wealthy enough to never be affected by
         | climate change. So you either comport your policies with their
         | desires or your opponents do, and get elected instead.
        
           | pyrale wrote:
           | > A potential source of this money is a small group of people
           | who financially benefit from the country's use of fossil
           | fuels, and who are wealthy enough to never be affected by
           | climate change.
           | 
           | They are not wealthy enough to never be affected by climate
           | change, no one is.
           | 
           | What I believe is happening is that these people are high on
           | power. They may realize that their course is self-
           | destructive, but they don't know how to avert it, and asking
           | them to abandon their power is antithetical to who they are.
        
             | ahelwer wrote:
             | If you can live anywhere in the world at negligible cost to
             | yourself with little change to your standard of living then
             | you will not be affected by climate change. The earth will
             | not be uninhabitable; just large swathes of it. The rich
             | will never be affected by climate change. They are not in
             | the same boat.
        
       | gefhfff wrote:
       | Depressing Frustrating
       | 
       | I don't know what to say
        
       | s5300 wrote:
       | Dear HN: What should those of us who are completely powerless in
       | this do?
       | 
       | I am a fairly empathetic person, and the fact that over a billion
       | people are likely to die from wet bulb or whatever else, purely
       | in the name of money, greed, & systematic buffoonery has me
       | pretty mentally fucked up already.
       | 
       | Would it be in my best interest to find some sort of drugs that
       | completely turn off my empathy for the next two decades? Because
       | the other options I can think of aren't very compatible with
       | life.
       | 
       | The outcome at this point is essentially inevitable, the U.S.
       | seems pretty incapable of rolling out the amount of nuclear we'll
       | need to divert a global catastrophe.
        
         | ahevia wrote:
         | You are not powerless. Cities & states have huge power to help
         | curb emissions. Check out the work by David Roberts over at
         | Volts on WA's amazing climate legislation that was passed in
         | the last year.
         | 
         | Legislation like that is possible because of average citizens.
         | Find a local political climate group in your area. Work with
         | them.
         | 
         | Check out the recent Green Amendment that was passed in NY.
         | That movement started from the everyday person. It's passing as
         | huge implications for future environmental law cases in the
         | state. A similar amendment in other states has stopped the
         | passage of expanding fracking operations, etc
         | 
         | Keystone XL was stopped by everyday people. Line 3 is facing a
         | resistance made up of everyday people.
         | 
         | This narrative that we are "powerless" is exactly what the
         | powers against us want. Research shows that climate anxiety
         | increases inaction. Research also shows that people involved in
         | community campaigns have lower rates of climate anxiety.
         | 
         | If you live in WA or FL feel free to PM me. I have a lot of
         | resources that could get you started
        
         | ahelwer wrote:
         | I'm thinking the only way forward is building an alternative
         | power structure to electoral politics that bullies the
         | politicians around. Corporations and money control the
         | government - it's a truism at this point. Place that which
         | controls the government under democratic control and you have a
         | democracy. So either building organized labor power within
         | existing corporations or starting entirely new democratically-
         | run cooperative companies to outcompete existing corporations.
         | 
         | People want to keep politics separate from work, but this seems
         | like nonsense to me. Reductively, politics revolves around who
         | does the work, who pays the costs of that work, and who
         | receives the benefits from that work. To separate politics from
         | work when politics is about work is to throw away the greatest
         | power you have - your contribution to the world through work.
         | Voting every few years is so unimaginably paltry compared to
         | using your economic output to have a say.
         | 
         | People have this idea that cooperatives are inefficient, but
         | ensuring profits stay within the company instead of being
         | extracted off to people who had no hand in its creation is a
         | burden they do not share.
         | 
         | Microsoft spends $250k/employee/year on dividends and stock
         | buybacks for shareholders.
         | 
         | If this idea sounds interesting read the book _Democracy at
         | Work_.
        
         | kelseyfrog wrote:
         | Deconstruct the idea that this is the best we can do - our
         | current political economy is not some inevitability. Human
         | nature, politics, and economics are not fundamental facts.
         | These are ideas are inherently self-limiting. They are
         | constantly reconstructed in social interactions. Anyone telling
         | you otherwise is unaware of how social knowledge works or has a
         | vested interest in maintaining this illusion. Spread this idea
         | and the idea of it spreading to everyone you know. Things are
         | impossible, until suddenly they aren't.
        
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