[HN Gopher] Used car market gets even more bizarre
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Used car market gets even more bizarre
        
       Author : cwwc
       Score  : 105 points
       Date   : 2021-11-09 14:57 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.axios.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.axios.com)
        
       | eof wrote:
       | anecdotally; the lower end of the car market doesn't really seem
       | affected. prices for 10+ year old cars that aren't "nice" but are
       | easily reliable with regular maintenance still seem widely
       | available and cheap.
       | 
       | tangentially; I have always seen the premium for a nice car to be
       | a really low value at normal income levels.
        
         | djrogers wrote:
         | Widely available and cheap doesn't equate to 'as cheap as last
         | year'.
         | 
         | I bought a fairly well used 2006 Honda in Jan of 2020 for $5k.
         | After denting the rear fender badly and putting 20k miles on
         | it, it's worth $7-8k.
         | 
         | A vehicle like that has _never_ appreciated like that. Cash for
         | Clunkers had an impact on availability of $1000 beaters, but
         | nothing like what we're seeing now.
        
         | olyjohn wrote:
         | I used to be able to pick up decent cars (something that needs
         | a little work but runs and drives) for like $500-1000 all day
         | long. Those days are gone. If it runs and drives, you're lucky
         | to get it under $1500-2000.
        
       | tobyjsullivan wrote:
       | What would it look like if asset speculation hit the used car
       | market? Would it look much different than this?
       | 
       | Normally that would be a poor investment because same-car prices
       | steadily trend downward. But if the market changed such that used
       | car prices were increasing - say, due to a shortage of new car
       | availability - then would some investors be inclined to start
       | hoarding used cars?
        
         | mpol wrote:
         | If prices are increasing faster than the maintenance that is
         | needed :)
         | 
         | Hoarding used cars for a slightly long time will have them
         | deteriorate somewhat. Some will have small issues, some might
         | have bigger. Theoretical value might be higher, but when
         | selling time comes the practical value might be a
         | disappointment. Getting them ready for sale will have costs.
         | 
         | Car dealers just go for fast profit, like they always did.
        
       | larrydag wrote:
       | Here's the flip side of that from auto lenders. They are seeing a
       | huge recovery benefit from repossession of vehicle after
       | chargeoff. Lenders portfolios are seeing a net benefit in
       | chargeoffs which has hardly ever happened in recent history. Even
       | more bizarre.
       | 
       | https://www.yahoo.com/now/ally-financial-ally-beats-q3-12451...
        
         | wpietri wrote:
         | Wow, those are some terrible incentives. I've never had a loan,
         | so maybe I misunderstand the experience. But I'd hate to owe
         | money to somebody that is hoping I fail badly enough that they
         | take my stuff and while keeping my money.
        
           | nostrademons wrote:
           | Usually the bank has no mechanism to alter whether you make
           | payments or not. Keep making payments and they can't
           | repossess the car.
           | 
           | It'll be interesting to see what this does to the credit
           | quality of _future_ borrowers, which is the only leverage the
           | bank has. Secured loans on appreciating assets mean that at
           | some point, the bank has an incentive to write loans that
           | they _know_ are not going to be repaid, because they buy only
           | part of the asset, receive a stream of cash payments for it,
           | and then get the full asset anyway when the borrower
           | defaults. It 's like a call option that you get paid for
           | instead of paying for.
           | 
           | Come to think of it, I wonder if this is why we got NINJA
           | loans with the 05-07 housing bubble. Once housing prices
           | started going up consistently enough, it becomes profitable
           | to write loans to borrowers that you know are going to
           | default, because you can take the house and enjoy the asset
           | appreciation while getting a nice stream of cash flows in the
           | process.
        
             | mdavis6890 wrote:
             | "...it becomes profitable to write loans to borrowers that
             | you know are going to default, because you can take the
             | house and enjoy the asset appreciation while getting a nice
             | stream of cash flows in the process."
             | 
             | Not the way it works, for two main reasons. First, people
             | who owe less than the house is worth are generally not
             | foreclosed on - in the worst case they just sell and keep
             | whatever equity they get away with. Second, legally the
             | bank can't keep any surplus. If they foreclose on your
             | house, they have to sell it at auction and keep only up to
             | the amount you owed. They would have to give you any
             | excess. At least for houses, banks aren't allowed to profit
             | from foreclosures.
        
           | larrydag wrote:
           | It's in the best interest of a bank not to repossess because
           | there are operational expenses and the bank will get more
           | return if the loan goes to completion.
        
             | eof wrote:
             | unless the collateral appreciates past some threshold of
             | expectation
        
             | vkou wrote:
             | Aren't you on the hook for those operational expenses?
             | 
             | The bank only loses if you default early in your loan, and
             | the price of the collateral collapses.
        
         | oasisbob wrote:
         | That's insane.
         | 
         | If only all the small US banks and credit unions held off on
         | their (~2005) indirect lending strategy and saved it for now,
         | it might have actually been profitable!
        
         | Y_Y wrote:
         | How can you honestly "charge off" a debt as unlikely to be
         | repaid, when you are quite likely to be repaid? It seems that
         | in the case of a car loan you can usually reposses the
         | collateral, which recently will have held value oreven
         | appreciated in the interim.
        
           | kevstev wrote:
           | Historically, car values underwent significant depreciation
           | over time and loans that went delinquent were for vehicles
           | that were "underwater"- their value was less than the loan.
           | Its pretty much unprecedented for the value of a vehicle to
           | actually increase at any point in time over its life, and how
           | long this anomaly will go on for is very uncertain- another
           | way to put it is that you don't change all of your process
           | and accounting norms because of a temporary (at least as we
           | think for now) supply issue.
        
             | Y_Y wrote:
             | > you don't change all of your process and accounting norms
             | because of a temporary (at least as we think for now)
             | supply issue
             | 
             | Is this why some people stick insist on making payments by
             | sending cheques through the post?
        
         | latortuga wrote:
         | Another flip side effect. My dad is a CFO at a car dealership
         | and tells me that the banks are having problems due to the lack
         | of cars as well. A dealership will normally float all their
         | inventory on a big bank note but they basically have no cars on
         | the lot to sell which means the banks underwriting those notes
         | are making no money on interest. Multiply it by thousands of
         | dealerships nationwide and this has big impacts on revenue to
         | those banks.
        
           | shard wrote:
           | Could you clarify what this means for a layman? AIUI you are
           | saying that a car dealership will borrow money from the bank
           | to purchase their inventory, but nowadays with no inventory,
           | banks are not getting payments from the dealers for the money
           | they've borrowed. 1. With no inventory, why does the dealer
           | need the money from the bank? 2. If the dealer is still
           | borrowing money from the bank despite having no inventory,
           | don't they still need to pay interest? I think there is
           | something fundamental that I am misunderstanding here.
        
             | skybrian wrote:
             | It sounds like dealers choose how much to borrow. If they
             | borrow less, banks get less interest, meaning less income,
             | unless they replace it by finding other people to make
             | loans to.
        
             | mdavis6890 wrote:
             | Dealers have a line of credit, like a credit card, that
             | they use to purchase inventory. They pay it back as they
             | sell cars, and run it up as they buy new inventory to
             | replace it. So the overall loan balance roughly represents
             | their current unsold inventory. No inventory means no loan
             | balance, which means no interest payments to the bank.
        
           | KiranRao0 wrote:
           | This seems like a really good thing for the dealership. They
           | are able to operate with ~0 inventory and ~0 inventory
           | holding costs.
        
       | speedgoose wrote:
       | In Norway it's relatively normal.
       | 
       | Plenty of used cars at normal prices and if you want a new car
       | you can buy a Tesla and get it next month.
        
         | rupi wrote:
         | USA here - ordered a Tesla Model Y in July 2021. Estimated
         | delivery was October 2021. A couple of weeks ago, that date
         | changed to April 2022.
        
           | speedgoose wrote:
           | Yes the Tesla cars we can buy without too long wait are from
           | the Chinese factory. I ordered my Model Y late August and got
           | it beginning of September.
        
             | mrfusion wrote:
             | You can choose the factory?
        
               | chrisjc wrote:
               | Configuration probably dictates origin.
        
               | wbsss4412 wrote:
               | And tariffs. USMCA heavily biases car manufacturing
               | towards North America.
        
               | speedgoose wrote:
               | Its not explicitly said but Long range is from China, and
               | Performance is from USA.
        
               | mrfusion wrote:
               | So you can get a long range a lot sooner?
        
               | speedgoose wrote:
               | If you buy the car in Norway, yes.
        
           | aesclepius wrote:
           | Man, that's crazy how sudden this car demand surge happened.
           | I was in the market for a Model Y in February 2021 and got
           | mine in March.
        
       | Digory wrote:
       | So the working explanation is that the disappearance of new cars
       | (due to chip shortages) has doubled the price of used cars?
       | 
       | How long can that bubble last? Is it the same globally?
        
         | toxik wrote:
         | In northern Europe, it's business as usual. Maybe our volumes
         | are so small that the market need for new cars is still met?
        
       | pengaru wrote:
       | I daily drive a beater NA Miata, and throughout the past year or
       | so I keep getting harassed to sell it. In the parking lots of
       | grocery stores, post office, home depot, you name it and someone
       | has literally camped out waiting for me to return just so they
       | can try pressure me to sell, often quite rudely too.
       | 
       | From my perspective it's pretty crazy, the car appears neglected
       | with a very rough exterior... it doesn't scream "buy me, you
       | won't regret it". People are behaving desperately.
        
         | jjav wrote:
         | Two years ago you could go to craigslist and search for Miata
         | and get a hundred cars for sale any day.
         | 
         | Today, hard to find a reasonable one.
        
         | Hamuko wrote:
         | NA Miatas are becoming rarer, especially if yours is not
         | modified to hell and back. And collector car prices have been
         | climbing a lot recently.
        
           | pengaru wrote:
           | Sure, but mine is a ~350k mile piece of shit with a salvage
           | title after someone T-boned it at low speed, and I haven't
           | made any real attempt to repair that damage. Nobody in their
           | right mind looks at my Miata and thinks "collector car!"
        
             | olyjohn wrote:
             | Someone wants to build an Exocet or a Miata-kart out of it.
             | I think that's where a lot of them have gone.
        
               | pengaru wrote:
               | These are usually quite obviously parents with a newly
               | licensed kid anxiously watching the interaction from the
               | back seat.
               | 
               | But yeah, occasionally it's a gearhead who wants to do
               | something like that - it's the exception though. Those
               | instances we end up talking shop, and that's kind of
               | always been a thing (I've driven Miatas for over a
               | decade, this is my third).
               | 
               | The ~recent thing is the parents harassing me, it's like
               | they can't find cheap first cars for their newly licensed
               | children.
        
             | culopatin wrote:
             | No rust? In todays Miata market? 3k.
             | 
             | Back in 2016, 3k was a clean sub 100k mi Miata
        
       | jedberg wrote:
       | I just priced out my minivan -- only down 20% since I bought it
       | 4.5 years ago. Crazytown.
        
         | azinman2 wrote:
         | I sold my car to Carvana after buying it used 3 years later for
         | $700 less than I had bought it for, and that was months ago.
        
       | symlinkk wrote:
       | Used car prices have doubled, yet the "official" inflation figure
       | is only 6%?
        
         | erehweb wrote:
         | The average selling price may have doubled, but this is
         | affected by the mix of cars that get sold, as outlined in
         | https://publish.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehi...
         | - correcting for that says prices went up 38% Y/Y
        
         | baggy_trough wrote:
         | Who are you going to believe, your wallet or a government stat
         | laundered by bureaucrats who want it to be as low as possible?
        
         | golemiprague wrote:
         | Because the media supports the current government and doesn't
         | want to make it look bad, the actual inflation is probably 20%
         | or even more.
        
         | alphabettsy wrote:
         | It's based on weighted numbers.
        
         | standardUser wrote:
         | This isn't macroeconomic inflationary pressure, this is simply
         | a shortage.
        
         | wbsss4412 wrote:
         | What percentage of your personal monthly budget gets spent
         | buying a used car?
         | 
         | That is, not in servicing loan payments, but actually buying
         | cars.
         | 
         | Inflation is weighted for this reason.
        
           | symlinkk wrote:
           | It's probably the number 2 most expensive monthly payment the
           | average person has beyond a mortgage. What's your point?
        
             | wbsss4412 wrote:
             | "Not servicing loan payments, actually buying cars".
             | 
             | The average family isn't but a whole new (used, but new to
             | them) car every month. The percentage of people actually
             | buying cars right now is a small fraction of the
             | population. For everyone else, the price they bought their
             | car was set when they bought it, and inflation has no
             | affect on their loan payments.
        
       | Hamuko wrote:
       | Apparently the Honda e is bucking the trend. I could buy a brand
       | new Honda e Advance from Honda for 39 886 EUR, or I could buy a
       | 2020 model with 2000 km on the odometer from a car dealership for
       | 29 800 EUR.
       | 
       | I'm guessing its subpar battery range doesn't do wonders for
       | values.
        
       | dionidium wrote:
       | I explored trading in my car a couple months ago and got
       | lowballed by the dealership. I wonder if it's time to try again.
        
         | _fat_santa wrote:
         | If you have another car you can use then it's a good deal. The
         | problem now is any profits made from selling your car will be
         | eaten up by the inflated price whichever car you are trying to
         | buy.
        
           | dionidium wrote:
           | I don't have another car, but I have a flexible remote work
           | arrangement, so I might be able to float a few months without
           | one, if trading my 2017 for a 2021 makes sense financially
           | (i.e. if the increase in the value of my used car offsets
           | enough of the purchase price of a new car to make it worth
           | it).
        
       | 1vuio0pswjnm7 wrote:
       | Anyone have more details on specifically what these chips are and
       | what they are used for in the "modern" automobile.
        
       | CoastalCoder wrote:
       | Anyone know if this is happening with used cargo vans, e.g. the
       | Amazon-branded delivery vans, or something larger e.g. the
       | smallest Ryder box trucks?
       | 
       | I was considering getting a new or used pickup in the next year
       | or so, but one of those babies would serve me even better.
        
         | RandallBrown wrote:
         | I've been trying to buy a new cargo van from Ford since May.
         | They originally told me it would be ready in November but then
         | there were so many orders mine got pushed to the next model
         | year. I'm hoping to get it before the end of winter...
         | 
         | I'm not super sure about the used market but these vans have
         | been _very_ in demand for things like camper conversion.
        
       | stillbourne wrote:
       | I bought my car, a 2015 Toyota Rav4, in 2017 for 18.5k It is now
       | has a resale value of 20.6k.
        
       | dlmiller wrote:
       | My car died, needing a new engine, so I was forced to get one in
       | October. I usually only buy used, but prices are so inflated it
       | didn't seem worth the premium. Used 2017-2020 Toyota Rav4's with
       | 30-60k miles were the same price as a new 2021 model, if you
       | could get one.
       | 
       | I knew it was bad, but I was shocked of how bad it was. I went to
       | multiple mega dealerships with 500-1000 cars that were all spoken
       | for. Most had 0 new cars available.
        
         | devilbunny wrote:
         | I've done significant work to a 20-year-old car recently. Over
         | $4k. It's easy to justify when you consider how much replacing
         | it right now would cost.
        
         | kybernetyk wrote:
         | Same here. For just 10k euros more I got a current year new
         | model vs a used 2016.
         | 
         | Used car market is crazy.
        
           | bogota wrote:
           | That doesn't seem that crazy to me.
        
             | toxik wrote:
             | Yeah, 10kEUR is certainly not change.
        
         | Syonyk wrote:
         | At that point, why not just put a new (junkyard from a wrecked
         | one) engine in?
        
           | dlmiller wrote:
           | $7,000 to put a new engine in a 2011 GMC Terrain that was
           | worth maybe $8000. The engine was recalled by GM for excess
           | oil consumption, my engine had the fixed installed and still
           | died 30k miles later.
           | 
           | I went with a new one because that particular vehicle ended
           | up costing me more monthly than a car payment.
        
             | hourislate wrote:
             | Stop buying shitty GM's. I learned my lesson back in in the
             | late 90's when I couldn't keep a GMC Sonoma running long
             | enough to sell it (was like 3 years old). In 2000 I became
             | part of the Toyota family (worked for FORD at the time) and
             | never bought anything else since.
             | 
             | The 2 Toyota and 1 Lexus we own are between 14-11 years old
             | and look and run like they came off the assembly line
             | yesterday (all 3 were bought used). I figure I am still
             | good for another 5 years minimum on all of them.
        
               | throwaway0a5e wrote:
               | Lifetime TCO is a thing.
               | 
               | If you bought a Bubble Taurus in '99 and fed it a new
               | transmission every 100k you'd probably come out the same
               | after adjusting for inflation between then and now.
               | 
               | I deal exclusively in shitboxes that are about 10yr
               | beyond what the demographics most represented. Anyone
               | peddling a "just buy a particular brand and you'll be all
               | set" narrative is just wrong. If you said "be rich enough
               | to do maintenance on the book schedule and not abuse your
               | vehicles" you'd be on to something. There's a reason
               | everyone wants a used grandma car.
        
               | jdmichal wrote:
               | Funnily enough, my first car was a used grandma '99
               | Taurus. I sold it to a family member, and it's still
               | driving.
        
               | WkndTriathlete wrote:
               | That depends on how much you value your time. I have had
               | Hondas for the past 25 years that have not required major
               | repairs for _anything_. Worst was having to get the
               | automatic transmission solenoid replaced on a Pilot with
               | 240k+ miles on it. In your world that would be 6
               | transmissions over three cars over 25 years; there 's no
               | way I would make that trade, since those 6 transmission
               | failures represent significant lost time (opportunity and
               | time costs when the car breaks down, getting it back and
               | forth to the repair shop, etc., etc.)
        
               | olyjohn wrote:
               | Eh... my anecdote is that I know multiple people with GM
               | vehicles with over 200,000 miles that run fine. And my
               | 2007 GMC Sierra is still like new, and should have way
               | more than 5 years of life left in it.
               | 
               | Your Toyotas probably have well more than 5 years left in
               | them too. Unless you're someone who replaces cars at
               | 100,000 miles, which a lot of people do.
        
             | mytdi wrote:
             | I think OP's advice is good, that's what I would do, but I
             | think for this particular vehicle it's not a good idea to
             | replace the engine with a used one from a junkyard, because
             | they have a lot of engine problems and the replacement
             | engine wouldn't last long either. A friend of mine found
             | out the hard way. Other vehicles though, I think it would
             | be worth it replacing the engine with a used one in good
             | condition.
        
         | clavalle wrote:
         | I was in the same boat.
         | 
         | I usually avoid buying new but used cars are nearly the same
         | price as new (if you can find a dealer that hasn't done
         | ridiculous 'market adjustments').
         | 
         | So we bought new. We had to buy a car that was just off the
         | delivery truck before the dealership had it inspected. The one
         | we'd looked at two days before was long gone and they expected
         | the one we bought to be sold the next day.
         | 
         | My neighbor traded in his truck for more than he paid for it
         | two years ago. It's bonkers.
         | 
         | Mechanics are about to make a killing.
        
           | jiveturkey wrote:
           | Why are dealer market adjustments ridiculous? We live and
           | breathe market forces. No one ever, ever, complains about
           | market adjustments in their favor.
        
             | SilasX wrote:
             | It's the opposite:
             | 
             | Normal market: "this product costs $2.60."
             | 
             | 'Wasn't it like, $2.10 a week ago?'
             | 
             | "Yes it was."
             | 
             | Cars:
             | 
             | "This car is $26k. Oh, also you have to pay a $2k market
             | adjustment, because man things are just crazy."
             | 
             | That is, in normal markets, _you just raise the price_ ,
             | you don't need to refer to an explicit "market adjustment",
             | especially not as a random addon.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | On a used car, they do as you describe. On a new car, the
               | sticker generally starts with something like
               | "manufacturer's suggested base price" then various
               | options, then local adjustments. You can't just claim
               | that the manufacturer's suggested base price is $2K
               | higher than it actually is.
        
               | greedo wrote:
               | This is an industry famous for charging a small fortune
               | for BS undercoatings. For Doc fees, Nitrogen air in
               | tires, destination fees etc.
        
           | JKCalhoun wrote:
           | > My neighbor traded in his truck for more than he paid for
           | it two years ago.
           | 
           | Sold my 2018 Toyota Tacoma pickup to Carmax for over $32K. I
           | probably paid more than that a few years ago when I bought it
           | new, but I thought it would have depreciated much more than
           | that.
           | 
           | It's nice on the selling end.
        
           | lastofthemojito wrote:
           | The narrative earlier in the pandemic was that the reduction
           | in driving was brutal for mechanics as it meant a reduction
           | in need for auto maintenance and repair. Fewer of us are
           | staying at home these days, but it looks like we're still not
           | quite back to pre-pandemic levels of driving[0].
           | 
           | I'd imagine it's probably a bit of a mixed bag for mechanics,
           | depending on what sort of vehicles they specialize in, where
           | they're located, etc.
           | 
           | 0: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M12MTVUSM227NFWA
        
             | csteubs wrote:
             | Might be anecdotal but on top of that, I've noticed that
             | many car owners who previously only had services performed
             | by a shop began doing their own maintenance. A friend who
             | works as a service manager at CarMax had similar
             | observations in conversations with some customers,
             | including one DIY-er who forgot to torque their oil drain
             | bolt correctly, lost the oil, and is now the recipient of a
             | refurbished engine.
             | 
             | I had only done light maintenance/upgrade work on my cars
             | prior to the pandemic. In the last year I've replaced a
             | rear main seal, front + rear rotors + pads on all my cars,
             | new control arms, shocks, and struts on a sedan, a ton of
             | electrical work, cold air upgrades, every single fluid
             | drained and filled, etc. DIY content on YouTube is getting
             | to the point where a middle schooler can fab a car from
             | scratch given enough time and motivation. YMMV (literally).
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | Jumping from only light maintenance to changing a rear
               | main seal is quite the leap!
        
               | csteubs wrote:
               | No better feeling though! Especially when running the
               | numbers post-fix (insert CS joke here) and comparing to
               | shop quotes. I keep spreadsheets for two cars and an
               | older jet ski and I've saved ~$12k this year alone by
               | wrenching solo assuming $100/hr = standard labor rate.
               | I've learned a TON of cross-functional skills, have full
               | control over the parts and repair, and it's just a feel-
               | good way to step away from my desk when things slow down
               | at work.
               | 
               | I remind myself of the the 5-digit savings whenever I'm
               | in line at Harbor Freight... which is often.
        
           | baggy_trough wrote:
           | Why do you think those market adjustments are ridiculous?
           | Isn't that how supply and demand will adjust?
        
             | lotsofpulp wrote:
             | If you are adversely affected by price changes, then price
             | changes ridiculous, absurd, and ripoffs.
             | 
             | If you are beneficially affected by price changes, then
             | price changes are a result of supply and demand.
        
           | kspacewalk2 wrote:
           | >Mechanics are about to make a killing.
           | 
           | If you're a mechanic and already have plenty of business, I
           | imagine it's a tough call: do you jack up your hourly rates
           | and take advantage of the windfall, at the risk of customer
           | loyalty in the future? This insanity will pass, after all.
        
             | vkou wrote:
             | Keep rates steady for old customers, raise rates for new
             | ones.
        
             | NDizzle wrote:
             | Will the insanity pass, though? There's talk of putting
             | cameras in all cars starting in 2026 to prevent... drunk
             | driving[1]?! What's next?
             | 
             | I can't be alone in never buying a car that has this
             | feature.
             | 
             | [1] https://www.latimes.com/world-
             | nation/story/2021-11-09/congre...
        
               | noduerme wrote:
               | I still won't even buy a car with GPS. Seems I'm in a
               | vanishing minority. It won't pass, because people born
               | after 1990 have spent their adult lives in a world with
               | surveillance machines in their pockets at all times.
               | Their cars are just big phones. By 2040 you probably
               | won't even be allowed to drive your own vehicle.
        
               | hyperman1 wrote:
               | To be honest, not being allowed to drive your own vehicle
               | is probably a good thing.
               | 
               | See e.g. https://www.cdc.gov/injury/features/global-road-
               | safety/index.... From the first few paragraphs:
               | Road traffic crashes are a leading cause of death in the
               | United States for people aged 1-54                 More
               | than half of those killed are pedestrians, motorcyclists,
               | or cyclists.
               | 
               | Drivers risk other people's lives, hence, other people
               | have a right to demand safety from drivers' actions.
               | Supposing computers do get better than humans in the
               | future, why not just stop humans from doing this
               | dangerous activity?
               | 
               | If someone wants to do some old school driving in 2040,
               | go have fun on a private racetrack or whatever. You can
               | even ignore speed limits.
        
               | zizee wrote:
               | It does wrestle a lot of control from the individual
               | though. It's not hard to imagine possible abuses of
               | power. Tracking everyone's movements is just the start.
               | What if some government decided to deny service to
               | someone? Or not let certain groups travel to certain
               | places. Imagine opportunities for havoc due to hacking
               | 
               | I'd still like driverless cars, but privacy and freedom
               | of movement rights protections need to be thought about.
        
               | postsantum wrote:
               | I am sure it would work great with the upcoming
               | quarantine of 2038. Fellow citizen, for your own good,
               | your car has been geofenced to your local grocery shop
        
               | KennyBlanken wrote:
               | I have news for you: not getting a car with _navigation_
               | doesn 't mean squat.
               | 
               | Any vehicle sold with telematics _available_ not only has
               | GPS, but that telematics system is feeding the
               | manufacturer data from the vehicle, including your
               | location.
               | 
               | This happens whether you're subscribing to the telematics
               | service or not. It's always on. Some vehicles do it
               | multiple times an hour or more.
        
               | OnlineGladiator wrote:
               | GPS is a one-way communication. It's really no different
               | from radio in that regard (a signal sent from far away
               | and you have an antenna to read the signal). Unless
               | there's also a cellular modem in your car (which pretty
               | much every modern car has today so I'm not pretending
               | this is unusual) it's impossible for others to monitor
               | your location. You can simply disable the cellular modem
               | and enjoy using GPS without anyone else knowing where you
               | are.
               | 
               | Also, those cellular modems in cars tend to use older
               | technology (this is fairly standard for the auto industry
               | in general since there is such a long regulatory approval
               | process for anything). My 2018 model year car will no
               | longer be able to communicate remotely in January 2022
               | because the cellular network is being deprecated.
        
               | emaginniss wrote:
               | Right, but they can access your car later and see all the
               | places you've been.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | Seems like a futile effort to avoid cars with GPS if you
               | carry a device around that is connected to a mobile
               | network. Is there anyone that does not carry around a
               | dumb phone, if not a smartphone?
        
               | oceanplexian wrote:
               | This brings up an interesting point which is why I
               | recently bought a used car. The late 90s, 00s are
               | probably the last road-legal vehicles that won't spy on
               | you. I wouldn't put it past lawmakers to make phoning
               | home mandatory like they did with backup cameras. I'm
               | guessing this will also cause prices to skyrocket since
               | there is a sizable minority of people like us who will
               | refuse to buy a car that's plugged into the Internet.
        
             | Wistar wrote:
             | A friend owns a high line/niche used car dealership and his
             | service shop, who has a legendary mechanic, has not
             | increased rates at all but just got more selective about
             | the service work they are doing. Also, effectively no new
             | service customers as they are booked solid for months.
        
             | fshbbdssbbgdd wrote:
             | One compromise is jacking up rates for new customers only.
        
             | barrenko wrote:
             | Yes it will, just like real estate prices.
             | 
             | Joke.
        
             | ska wrote:
             | Perhaps you just get pickier about the jobs you take.
        
               | randycupertino wrote:
               | My mechanic does this! He loves to work on classic cars
               | as a passion project and has a bunch of classics in his
               | lot that he's slowly working on, however if you call him
               | now, his voicemail says, "Please note if you are calling
               | to inquire work on a model over 20 years old the waiting
               | list is 5-6 months."
               | 
               | He's a great guy- if anyone is in Bay Area and needs a
               | good honest mechanic for foreign or domestic, shout out
               | to Jack at Tom and Jacks in San Bruno!
        
               | olyjohn wrote:
               | I tried to get in for an alignment a couple of months
               | ago. I'm used to making an appointment 1 or 2 days out
               | for this sort of thing. All the local shops were booked
               | out over a month. I eventually found a place that had an
               | opening, which ended up being a chain... But I couldn't
               | drive my car for 2 weeks with a bad alignment while I
               | wait for the appointment.
        
               | throwaway0a5e wrote:
               | That message does nice double duty as a PC way of saying
               | poors need not bother shopping him for a quote to replace
               | something on their '99 Grand Caravan.
        
               | CoastalCoder wrote:
               | IIUC, you're implying that that mechanic is disdainful of
               | poor customers, and that this just provides convenient
               | political cover.
               | 
               | If so, I'm not sure why you'd assume that. It seems more
               | likely to me that the mechanic is simply choosing his
               | work based on personal interest and perhaps
               | profitability. I don't see why we'd ask anything more
               | than that from him.
        
               | throwaway0a5e wrote:
               | I'm not assuming. Everyone even remotely close to the
               | industry knows that mechanics don't like the people who
               | want to do the bare minimum amount of work all the time
               | and that fairly strongly correlates to "poors". Of course
               | given the choice a mechanic would rather do an oil change
               | on a '15 4Runner owned by some yuppie he can upsell a
               | cabin air filter to than do a timing set on a '03 Outback
               | for someone who'll decline the water pump that they
               | traditionally try and sell with it.
        
               | greedo wrote:
               | Eh, it also correlates to "cheapskates." I know a lot of
               | people who make FAANG money who do the bare minimum in
               | home/auto repairs. Just cheap SOBs.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | I would have thought 4runners were disproportionately
               | bought by people who want to fix the car themselves.
        
               | bityard wrote:
               | If you were even remotely close to the industry, you
               | would know full well that the older a car is, the more of
               | a pain in the ass is to repair. It only takes one rusty
               | bolt snapping off to turn a 30 minute job into a 3 hour
               | one. When that happens, the mechanic has to eat those
               | extra hours. They don't get to crawl back to the customer
               | and beg for triple the price. The shop owner certainly
               | isn't going to pony up the difference. It (effectively)
               | comes right out of their paycheck.
               | 
               | I feel that the instant knee-jerk accusation of
               | discrimination against someone you never even met says
               | quite a bit about you.
        
             | raisedbyninjas wrote:
             | It's not just inflated labor pricing. Customers are willing
             | to make more extensive repairs because it's more economical
             | than buying a replacement.
        
             | CoastalCoder wrote:
             | I noticed a similar dynamic with general contractors /
             | handymen a few years ago.
             | 
             | There was a multi-year period where the demand far exceeded
             | supply, but they didn't seem to adjust their billing rates
             | accordingly.
             | 
             | I never got a clear answer as to why. The one guy I talked
             | to seemed scarred by a very demand-limited market some
             | years prior, so maybe he was fearful of making _any_
             | changes that might leave him under-employed.
        
               | greedo wrote:
               | I had the exact opposite occur. The missus wanted a patio
               | installed (pavers or bluestone) and the quote we got from
               | one guy was 10k over what others were bidding. He didn't
               | even submit any drawings/diagrams, just told us the
               | quote. Obviously didn't want the job.
               | 
               | Same thing happened with a flooring guy who could have
               | done $30k worth of work. He kept claiming he'd send us a
               | bid but eventually ghosted us.
               | 
               | Tradespeople can skip doing the hard/less-profitable jobs
               | right now while the market is hot.
        
           | satronaut wrote:
           | I bought a tesla about a year ago. I only had to wait a week
           | for it. 0 down and something like 2% APR. I feel like I
           | really lucked out there
        
         | hedgehog wrote:
         | I bought a RAV4 over the summer. There was no inventory (hint:
         | dealer web sites will lie to you about what's actually
         | available to purchase), I ended up reserving one that hadn't
         | been shipped to the dealer yet and waiting for around a month
         | for it to arrive. Autotrader shows zero of the same trim for
         | sale used within 500 miles so not even sure what it would sell
         | for.
        
           | Loughla wrote:
           | Bought a new Subaru Impreza this spring. We had been saving
           | for a couple years for my (close enough) dream car (wanted
           | the WRX STI, but that maintenance is a real bitch).
           | 
           | We have now had 4 calls from the dealership where we bought
           | it offering to buy it back for _thousands of dollars more
           | than we paid this spring_. So far their best offer was $6500
           | more than what we paid.
           | 
           | It's outrageous.
        
         | aeturnum wrote:
         | My car isn't dead yet, but it's around the time I would look at
         | buying another used car. I bought a used motorcycle instead and
         | am splitting miles.
        
         | willis936 wrote:
         | My SO's Subaru Outback's engine died recently. It would be
         | $5000 to replace it. Not being able to justify the cost when it
         | had an engine replacement 2 years ago, was already 9 years old,
         | had 160k miles on it, and us not needing a second car, we
         | decided to just sell it. A dealer bought it for $6500 knowing
         | that the engine was shot. I was expecting like half of that
         | with an optimistic estimate.
        
           | mdoms wrote:
           | An engine replaced 2 years ago should absolutely not fail and
           | should be under warranty.
        
             | olyjohn wrote:
             | It was likely replaced with another used engine. No
             | mechanic is gonna warranty that for 2 years, and I doubt
             | they'd even warranty a new engine for 2 years unless they
             | rebuilt it themselves. You'd have to take that up with the
             | engine manufacturer / refurbisher or the person who sold
             | it.
        
               | selimnairb wrote:
               | It's a Subaru, they blow through engines. A relative had
               | a 2014 Forester and it had two engines replaced under
               | warranty. This is apparently a known problem with a
               | certain recent version of their 4 cyl. boxer engines.
        
         | gremloni wrote:
         | I bought a new car about a year and a half ago. With 3 years 0%
         | interest, I put the entire amount in an index fund and have
         | been paying installments. At this point I've paid ~18,000 but
         | because of market profits and taxes it has only been around
         | $8000 I've really ended up paying.
        
       | neogodless wrote:
       | All I can offer is an anecdote. I have a 2015 Mazda 3 (top trim
       | level, with 34,000 miles on it.) Purchased 4.5 years ago with 8k
       | on it for just under $20k.
       | 
       | Well over a year ago, I started checking KBB.com values to either
       | trade it in or sell it. Back then, trade was close to $12k, and
       | private party was a bit over $13k.
       | 
       | I've checked several times since then, and the price has
       | basically grown and grown. As of today, it's showing $18k trade-
       | in and $18.5k private party.
       | 
       | As little as I drive, I'm very tempted to sell. But at the same
       | time, I could drive this car for the next 10 years easily. With
       | remote work being a permanent fixture for me, I don't really need
       | the car, but I'm still a bit emotionally attached to it. But am I
       | more emotionally attached than I would be to $18,000?
       | 
       | I am curious, though, how well KBB aligns with real world
       | transactions and what dealers are willing to pay. (It's always
       | been a hassle negotiating dealers to give you anywhere close to
       | KBB trade-in values.)
        
         | peteradio wrote:
         | You are in a good position to wait for a sweet private party
         | deal. I'm not sure if you will ever get KBB at a dealer but
         | many private buyers will use it as a reference point so you
         | should be able to get close to that asking as long as you have
         | assessed its condition properly.
        
         | bityard wrote:
         | If you live in the rust belt, I'd advise to sell it within a
         | couple years. I had two Mazdas they both died of rusted-out
         | frames while the engines and interiors were still perfectly
         | fine.
         | 
         | If you're in a dry climate, it'll last a very long time as long
         | as you keep up on maintenance.
        
         | mead5432 wrote:
         | My wife was in a similar position. 2013 Mazda 3 base trim. She
         | was going to sell it early 2020 because we didn't need the
         | second car and KBB said ~$4k.
         | 
         | We decided to actually get rid of it last weekend and KBB said
         | $6500-$7500 for trade-in. There were some cosmetic issues with
         | it so figured we'd be on the low end. Not wanting to deal with
         | posting it to craigslist and coordinate visits, we asked if the
         | dealership would purchase it. They offered us $6k so reasonably
         | close.
        
         | axiosgunnar wrote:
         | What would you do after selling? Go by foot? Or buy another car
         | at similarly inflated prices?
        
           | capableweb wrote:
           | They said themselves that they don't really need the car
           | anyways. Is walking (or bicycling) to places really such a
           | foreign concept to so many people?
        
           | neogodless wrote:
           | As I hinted, I work from home, as does my spouse. We could
           | share her car, as we often do now. My car is just a
           | luxury/convenience item at this point, not a necessity.
           | 
           | (Though I have an irrational desire to eventually get a truck
           | to help with my chores around the property. But no rush on
           | that.)
        
       | llamataboot wrote:
       | I am out of the country for a few months and was going to sell
       | back my car but decided that at 0% financing it was actually an
       | investment to let it sit. Not often does a used car become an
       | appreciating asset, but here we are.
        
       | AtlasBarfed wrote:
       | A huge price inflation in ICE is perfect for making EVs more
       | affordable from a perception standpoint.
       | 
       | When the drivetrain cost drops well under ICE (pre-inflation,
       | which should happen with Tesla in about a year depending on 4680
       | production) and charging takes off, ICEs will look completely
       | noncompetitive.
       | 
       | If solid state batteries become feasible and/or LFP hits the
       | magic density number of around 200-250 wh/kg? Look out. The
       | bottom is going to fall out.
        
       | 0xFreebie wrote:
       | Might their be some need to legislate chip allocation?
       | 
       | What would sink GDP more: one year of no new cars, or one year of
       | no new phones? Which would have the greater domino effect on the
       | economy?
       | 
       | Because auto manufacturers are such low margin, they can't buy
       | chips reserved by monopoly businesses. But what happens when
       | people can't afford a new phone because they can't get to work?
        
         | nemothekid wrote:
         | I'm not sure that would help at all; the issue isn't that Apple
         | used up all the capacity, it's that the auto makers scaled down
         | a process that needs months to scale up.
        
       | RC_ITR wrote:
       | The real problem will be when supply normalizes, used cars return
       | to their sub-20k wholesale price, and a bunch of people are
       | underwater on bad loans for (once again) depreciating assets.
       | 
       | Have fun with that everyone!
        
       | _fat_santa wrote:
       | I bought a 2009 4Runner back in March for $15k. Back then $15k
       | would buy you the nicest 4th Generation (03-09) 4Runner. Now days
       | that seems to be the average asking price, most 4Runners from
       | that generation are going for at least $12k (with over 200k
       | miles) and the nicest ones (with low 100k miles) are fetching
       | over $20k.
       | 
       | That's 15k to 20k for a car that is 11 years old at it's youngest
       | and mileage under 150k is considered "low mileage"
        
         | skt5 wrote:
         | 4Runners are notorious for holding their resale value well
         | since they're known to be very reliable vehicles that can run
         | 400k miles+ if you take care of them. You can put Land Cruisers
         | in this category too.
        
         | AutumnCurtain wrote:
         | 09 Accord with 70k miles, bought in 2012 for 15k. Appraised in
         | September 2021 at $6800 at Carmax and then sold to them in
         | November 2021 for $7900. Dealership had offered $5000 for it in
         | 2020.
        
         | hermanradtke wrote:
         | I found a 2008 4Runner v6 engine with 4 wheel drive some years
         | back. People ask me all the time to sell and I never will
         | because that platform is so solid.
        
           | lotsofpulp wrote:
           | Does the 4 in 4Runner not mean they all have 4 wheel drive?
        
             | arh68 wrote:
             | Nope! Many are 2WD (RWD), perhaps even most depending on
             | the area. Some are full-time 4WD, but many have the manual
             | 4WD selector 2H-4H-4L.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | Interesting. I assumed they all had the 4WD selector.
        
             | [deleted]
        
       | OldHand2018 wrote:
       | One of the other oddities of this market is that prices for
       | "normal" cars have increased at a higher rate than prices for
       | "upmarket" cars.
       | 
       | There is now some pricing overlap that never used to be there.
        
         | beh9540 wrote:
         | I noticed the same thing - Nissan and Infiniti models that are
         | basically the same chassis but with fancier features going for
         | the same price. Infiniti was lower than MSRP but Nissan was
         | above.
        
         | nostrademons wrote:
         | Interesting that we had the same effect for housing (at least
         | in the Bay Area) during and immediately after the pandemic. Hot
         | zip codes like San Francisco, Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Mountain
         | View, Portola Valley, Woodside, etc. actually fell. Second-tier
         | suburbs like the mid-peninsula, Sunnyvale, Fremont, Berkeley,
         | Oakland, El Cerrito, etc. exploded.
         | 
         | I suspect that it's a function of shortages. When there are not
         | enough goods to go around at the high end, some fraction of
         | those buyers get displaced to the next tier down. They keep
         | their high-end incomes and ability to pay, though, and bid
         | against each other so that the next tier of goods becomes
         | almost as expensive.
        
         | CamperBob2 wrote:
         | Someone in the market for a new Porsche can probably wait.
         | Someone in the market for a new Kia probably can't.
        
         | avn2109 wrote:
         | This is interesting, can you give some examples?
        
           | lastofthemojito wrote:
           | It's interesting to browse Carvana - many of their listings
           | include a link to a window sticker, which includes the
           | original MSRP.
           | 
           | Some normal cars, especially ones in high demand like the Kia
           | Telluride, are quite marked up. Here's an almost-new
           | Telluride listed for $46,990, but if you look at the window
           | sticker, the MSRP when new was $35,770.
           | https://www.carvana.com/vehicle/1936818
           | 
           | One the other hand, the Mercedes GLC isn't at the top of most
           | people's lists. Here's an almost-new one listed for $49,990.
           | According to the window sticker, original MSRP was $51,125.
           | https://www.carvana.com/vehicle/2059912
           | 
           | MSRPs $15k apart, but now listed for a just a $3k difference.
        
           | OldHand2018 wrote:
           | I had an article that had a big list, but unfortunately I
           | can't find it any more. You can do some web searches and see
           | that the brands with the largest price gains are "normal"
           | while the brands with the smallest price gains are "luxury"
           | cars.
           | 
           | You may do best with some anecdotal evidence, however.
           | 
           | I moved from the city to the country this year and needed to
           | buy a 2nd car to get me to/from the train station once work
           | went back in person. We were targeted for an October return,
           | so my plan was to buy a cheap used car starting around July.
           | I quickly found that cheap used cars don't exist, but
           | certainly the ones that were the least overpriced were luxury
           | makes, which I associated with concerns over long-term
           | reliability - but I now think that was incorrect.
           | 
           | Once I gave up on used cars, I started looking at new cars.
           | "Normal" dealerships were an incredible pain, especially once
           | they found out that I was not going to trade in the car I
           | arrived in. They all wanted high prices above sticker price,
           | long waits, all sorts of games with add-on packages, etc. The
           | two closest dealerships to me were Mercedes and Audi, and
           | when I went to them I found no games, no markups, no giant
           | crush of buyers clogging everything up, etc. I ended up with
           | an Audi Q5 at ~$2k below sticker price (~$46k), the same
           | price range I was being quoted for a Honda Ridgeline (well
           | over sticker - and not even the top model).
           | 
           | In normal times it probably would have been $5k below
           | sticker, but whatever. The return to office got delayed again
           | - maybe early 2022 - so it now just sits in the garage
           | getting dusty. Still has the new car smell.
        
           | el_benhameen wrote:
           | As another poster noted, Kia is a particularly good example.
           | I am trying to buy a Kia suv and would normally have thought
           | of it as a mid- to lower-level consumer brand, but there's
           | insane markups and competition for them right now. The
           | Sorento tends to be marked up $3-8k over msrp in the bay
           | area, and I've seen the Telluride marked up $10k+. I went to
           | test drive a Telluride; the first one was bought as I was
           | getting in and the new owner shouted me out of the car, and
           | the salesperson told me to decide whether I wanted the second
           | one before I got back or he'd have it sold. Anecdotal, but he
           | told me that folks who would usually go for a Range Rover
           | like the style, so they're happy to pay $60k for a marked up
           | Kia versus $100k for whatever else they would have bought.
        
       | boringg wrote:
       | Is this across all makes and models?
        
       | acd wrote:
       | It would be interesting if house and car prices counted when
       | reporting inflation figures.
        
         | alphabettsy wrote:
         | They do afaik.
         | 
         | https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/used-cars-and-trucks.htm
         | 
         | There are different CPIs and debate over accuracy.
        
         | baq wrote:
         | housing and rent is ~1/3 of CPI. used cars are ~2.5%.
        
       | speeder wrote:
       | Anything that depends on Silicon right now is heavily warped.
       | 
       | For example my GPU used is seemly now more valuable than I paid
       | for it new, I will soon attempt to sell it.
       | 
       | Meanwhile new GPUs area crazy expensive too, people like to blame
       | miners but even GPUs terrible for mining are crazy expensive, I
       | actually then considered mining to pay a new GPU, only to find
       | out that mining is not being too profitable either, the most
       | profitable GPU I could find visiting mining calculators would be
       | whatever one in my country would take me 2 YEARS to pay off, so I
       | doubt miners are actually that hot for GPUs...
       | 
       | I also need a SSD ( don't have any, I still use HDDs), found out
       | my mobo has poor suport for one.
       | 
       | Calculated price for new computer assembled from parts, found out
       | it is not even POSSIBLE to build one, a lot of parts are 100% out
       | of stock, for example every single website I entered has mobos
       | with AMD X570 chipsets sold out, sound cards, even crap 5 USD
       | ones to plug on USB? sold out. SSDs bigger than 500gb? Sold out.
       | GPUs? Mostly sold out excepting really crap ones (those tiny
       | boards that fit in a 1x slot) or really good ones (those that
       | cost as much as a motorcycle).
       | 
       | CPUs? A bunch of them sold out too, one I actually saw with
       | plenty of stock is EPYC 7742 that has the same price as a SUV
       | here O.o (I am not even sure what someone would use that CPU
       | for... seriously what you do with 128 threads???)
       | 
       | Also my wife wanted a TV (we didn't had one, we were using a
       | borrowed one). We visited a lot of stores before we found one in
       | stock, and when we found it and purchased it, it triggered
       | multiple stores from the same franchise to start to angrily
       | message each other arguing about who should have the last pieces
       | in their storefront...
        
         | traceddd wrote:
         | I agree it's shortages and not really miners to primarily blame
         | for the GPU issues... but the type of mining you are doing is
         | not the same as professional miners. There is tons of demand.
        
         | gigel82 wrote:
         | GPUs are bad, CPUs are getting better, but the rest (except for
         | RAM during mid-2020) are in plenty supply... I'm also looking
         | for a SSD and there's quite a few options going on special
         | (well below MSRP) these days. I'm waiting for Black Friday to
         | pull the trigger, but maybe I shouldn't if things continue
         | going this route.
         | 
         | FWIW, I just extended the lease on my Leaf for the 2nd 6-month
         | term because there is simply no new Leaf in stock anywhere
         | within 100 miles of Seattle; at this rate, I might as well buy
         | it out (even though when I got, I negotiated for a great
         | monthly rate and didn't care about the residual).
        
         | bentcorner wrote:
         | I realize this is just an anecdote, but I replaced the
         | motherboard for my PC (an HP Z420) and it was dirt cheap IMO
         | ($50). I have no idea what a fair market price for it is but
         | it's perfectly reasonable.
         | 
         | You can find tons of similar models like my PC for sale on ebay
         | for dirty cheap and they are perfectly acceptable for home use.
         | 
         | No, they will not sip power like an M1 or pair well with a RTX
         | 3090 but they will do everything else just fine.
         | 
         | That said, I think it's only because the demand hasn't reached
         | this low yet. But there's still a fair amount of supply left
         | and it's a mixed blessing that the last few years hasn't seen
         | drastic CPU performance gains that hasn't yet been stripped
         | away by software, so anything even a decade old could be
         | suitable, depending on your use case.
        
       | andrewmunsell wrote:
       | The MSRP for my Tesla Model Y, which I got May 2020 and has 17k
       | miles now, was ~$54k. For kicks I asked Vroom for a quote and
       | they were willing to pay $61.5k in my area... If this weren't my
       | only car, I would probably be taking them up on it.
        
         | grubbs wrote:
         | Carmax was willing to pay a couple grand more than I paid brand
         | new for my 6-speed manual Golf Alltrack (10k miles).
        
       | mrfusion wrote:
       | I found the key to getting a new car is being flexible with the
       | make and model. I found a few males that had a nearly reasonable
       | level of inventory. They still wouldn't negotiate price but at
       | least I got a vehicle.
        
       | atarian wrote:
       | So is this a good time to sell my car if I don't really use it or
       | should I hold onto it?
        
         | jzymbaluk wrote:
         | Probably the best time in history to sell a car you don't need
        
         | obmelvin wrote:
         | I think it depends on how long you can wait until you would
         | need another car.
         | 
         | Yeah, you can potentially lose little to none in depreciation
         | (or gain in some situations) selling your car currently. If you
         | have another car or just don't need one, can be quite nice to
         | get great value + reduce your insurance/gas etc. But if you
         | will need another car again in 12 months I think it's a bit
         | unclear whether it's worth it & where the market will be
         | (granted - i'm no market analyst). If it's no issue to wait 24+
         | months I definitely think it's an amazing time to sell cars
         | that get little use.
        
         | codegeek wrote:
         | For sure. My 2010 used Acura has never been valued so high even
         | though I am not looking to sell.
        
       | syshum wrote:
       | My truck is worth more today then when I bought it 4 years ago...
       | Crazy that automobiles are now an appreciating asset...
        
         | culopatin wrote:
         | Are you accounting for inflation?
        
         | carabiner wrote:
         | My truck, a 2015 Tacoma, is worth $4k less than what I bought
         | it for 3 years ago. So totally normal depreciation in my case.
        
           | nathancahill wrote:
           | Worth to whom? Have you listed it for sale? The market for
           | used Tacomas and 4Runners is off the hook.
        
             | lotsofpulp wrote:
             | Someone left a post it note on my friends 2002 4Runner with
             | their phone number in case my friend wanted to sell it. In
             | northeast USA, after 20 years of salted winter roads.
        
             | carabiner wrote:
             | Carvana. Do you think it'd be much different if I tried
             | listing it on Craigslist?
        
               | Domenic_S wrote:
               | Very much yes. Tacos have a cult following and were
               | somewhat tough to get decently optioned models of even
               | pre-pandemic. I would not be surprised in the _least_ if
               | it's really worth more than you paid.
        
               | nathancahill wrote:
               | Besides the advice in the other response, doing a search
               | for your model across different websites should give you
               | an idea of what they're listing for.
        
               | lastofthemojito wrote:
               | I entertained the idea of selling my '16 Mazda6 during
               | all this madness so I filled out the online appraisal
               | forms for Carvana, CarMax and Vroom. CarMax's offer was
               | the highest - more than I paid for the car in 2018.
               | Carvana and Vroom's offers were a bit lower. If you get
               | serious about selling, you should obviously get multiple
               | offers.
        
               | carabiner wrote:
               | Interedasting. I just tried Carmax, Vroom, and KBB.
               | Carmax gave $16k (so about what I originally paid), Vroom
               | gave $12k about the same as Carvana. KBB said it was
               | worth $17k.
        
           | post_break wrote:
           | A tacoma is one of the few vehicles that don't depreciate. My
           | 2017 Chevy colorado I just offloaded for 3k less than I paid
           | essentially, that's crazy.
        
             | mrfusion wrote:
             | I wonder why their lease prices don't reflect the low
             | depreciation?
        
               | throwaway0a5e wrote:
               | Because why would they when they can just not and make
               | even more money.
               | 
               | It all makes sense when you realize that luxury car brand
               | economics apply to pretty much every Toyota (other than
               | arguably whatever their most subcompact hatch offering of
               | the year is) because that's who their buyer demographics
               | are.
        
               | technothrasher wrote:
               | A quick look has the three year lease residual values on
               | a Tacoma in the 75-80% range. That's higher than other
               | trucks in its class (such as the Chevy Colorado at like
               | 64%). With seemingly similar money factors and sticker
               | prices, that will absolutely reflect in a monthly lease
               | payment.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | davidw wrote:
         | This is exactly what we've done to the housing market in the
         | US. For some reason, people intuitively get why it's happening
         | with cars, but housing... it's some kind of weird mystery why
         | it's so expensive in so many places.
        
           | alphabettsy wrote:
           | Housing doesn't seem like a mystery at all. Home prices have
           | been increasing rapidly for several years and supply is
           | partly constrained by the pandemic.
        
           | dionidium wrote:
           | This has actually been a favorite analogy of YIMBYs for quite
           | some time. "What if the supply of new cars were constrained
           | for some reason?," they'd ask. "What would happen to the
           | market for new cars? Would prices go up or down? Would people
           | who had planned to buy a new car settle for a used one? Would
           | this drive up prices?" Etc, etc.
           | 
           | And of course that's _exactly_ what happened.
        
         | oceanplexian wrote:
         | The thing is, cars aren't actually worth more today than they
         | were 4 years ago, it's just that your money is worth less and
         | assets like cars+housing are where inflation is most visible.
        
       | cmckn wrote:
       | I bought a new car in 2019 and it has about 10,000 miles on it. I
       | could sell it for what I paid for it, which is completely absurd.
       | If I knew I'd be able to buy another car in ~6 months, I'd sell
       | it in a second. But the auto industry backlog is looking more
       | like 12-18 months to me.
        
         | sushsjsuauahab wrote:
         | These are micro-optimizations that aren't very meaningful.
         | 
         | It's more important to simply just have a car, than it is to
         | have a car for a very specific price.
         | 
         | It's the same reason why people would pay $12 at an airport for
         | what they could get in bulk for $0.50
        
       | jmspring wrote:
       | Recently had a car totaled. Blue book was about 19k private party
       | sale in excellent condition. Insurance gave me $27k.
       | 
       | So yes it's nuts.
        
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