[HN Gopher] Ask HN: How is the "metaverse" concept different fro...
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       Ask HN: How is the "metaverse" concept different from the Second
       Life boom?
        
       Does anybody remember the Second Life boom when companies were
       trying to snap up linden-land and set up shop online? That failed,
       and I can't help but feel like the 'metaverse' concept being
       marketed to us is that, but with VR helmets and advertising
       strapped on.
        
       Author : 0des
       Score  : 210 points
       Date   : 2021-11-07 04:07 UTC (18 hours ago)
        
       | rswail wrote:
       | I remember in the earlier web days, boo.com tried to get fashion
       | on the web, before people had high bandwidth and the attempt
       | failed (and for lots of other mismanagement as well).
       | 
       | But now, people shop online all the time. The technology caught
       | up to the point where people don't go to physical shops.
       | 
       | VR/AR builds on that to allow for a more realistic display. So
       | that's a natural extension that will come into play.
       | 
       | The same changes in buying behavior affects things like direct
       | car sales and house sales. Spinning a 3D car on a 2D screen is
       | not the same as being able to walk around it and (figuratively)
       | "kick the tyres" yourself.
       | 
       | We're at the late stages of the "early adopters", and the rate of
       | change in technology is exponential so is increasing at an
       | increasing rate.
        
         | elliekelly wrote:
         | There's definitely a "ripeness" factor to monetizing new
         | technology. There were tons of grocery and delivery start ups
         | during the dot com era, too. They never got traction because
         | they were too early.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | comeonseriously wrote:
       | All this is, is Zuck trying to flood the news with something
       | other than the bad news about Facebook right now.
        
       | shoto_io wrote:
       | I think metaverse concepts/companies can only bet successful if
       | they fulfill there key criteria that all products need to have:
       | 
       | 1. It's gotta be useful (Jobs to done/value/utility whatever you
       | want to call it)
       | 
       | 2. It's gotta make me feel good/excited, it has to be fun
       | ("emotional value" if you want)
       | 
       | 3. It's gotta be socially acceptable ("what do others think of me
       | if I use this thing?")
       | 
       | My take is: It is unclear how and when the current concepts of
       | the metaverse will deliver on these dimensions. I bet there is a
       | version that will deliver on all 3. But, we haven't seen it yet.
       | Once we see it, we'll all laugh and say, "why didn't I invent
       | this?".
       | 
       | PS: The closest thing I have seen is gather.town. It's not quite
       | a metaverse (yet) though.
        
         | ahevia wrote:
         | Your 3rd point is really important and often overlooked.
         | Explains why Facebook/Meta is going through such lengths to
         | begin to fix its image.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | retrocryptid wrote:
       | second life. lively. there.com/forterra. OpenCroquet/Cobalt. that
       | thing diamond multimedia did in 2011-2012. entropia. eve online.
       | 
       | in the same way afghanistan was the graveyard of empires, virtual
       | worlds are where corporate product development teams go to die.
       | (and a couple open source teams as well)
        
       | lazzlazzlazz wrote:
       | There are three "branches" of the metaverse concept today:
       | 
       | 1. VR rebranded (Facebook's approach)
       | 
       | 2. a specific family of games that allow you to buy and own
       | land/territory, mediated by the blockchain (see Bit.Country[1] as
       | one of many examples)
       | 
       | 3. a term used widely in crypto/web3 world to refer specifically
       | to the fact that we can finally build networks that people can
       | own (buy/sell but also control directly via programmable
       | governance) and built on without being rent-collected by
       | extractive web2 companies (mitigated platform risk); using web3
       | platforms which externalize most of the value they create
       | 
       | Hacker News tends to understand the 1st but not the 2nd or 3rd.
       | The 3rd is most interesting and less well-understood: the
       | metaverse is about much more than a new viewing device (VR
       | headsets). It's about new kinds of economics around ownership and
       | control.
       | 
       | [1]: https://bit.country/
        
         | herbst wrote:
         | This so much! I earned money in second Life. Back then I
         | exchanged it all to bitcoin and lost it gambling, but the fact
         | that SL was rewarding my real efforts in real world money was
         | amazing. Investments I did in current projects (ex. Sandbox)
         | also doing well.
         | 
         | Facebook is going to have nothing of that. Money will flow into
         | one direction only and it essentially never be more than an VR
         | entertainment hub.
         | 
         | I honestly feel insulted in some way that zuck claims the word
         | metaverse for something that will fail horribly anyway.
        
           | dvh wrote:
           | So basically all Facebook need to do is allow people to earn
           | money from day one.
        
         | yesenadam wrote:
         | And if I want to understand the 3rd, what are some good things
         | to read? Thanks.
        
         | methusala8 wrote:
         | Can you share any sources to understand the 3rd point mentioned
         | above?
        
       | thom wrote:
       | People just don't want these embodied experiences outside of
       | extremely narrow and controlled circumstances (e.g. games). 3D is
       | just fundamentally not an efficient way of conveying information.
       | Almost all useful information in the world (especially at work)
       | is [hyper]text. Sometimes it's speech, which is just slow,
       | inefficient text. I am absolutely baffled by this movement.
       | Surely nobody actually wants any of this 3D stuff?
       | 
       | There is a genuinely interesting conversation to be had about the
       | metaverse. I think lots of conversations around identity are
       | interesting: what is durable, what is opt-in/opt-out, how do we
       | mediate a la carte personal identity with community standards
       | etc. That's a hugely important conversation the outcomes of which
       | we are feeling right now. This is _much more_ important than what
       | fucking 3D fox avatar you walk around with.
       | 
       | I think there are even interesting conversations to be had around
       | AR, and smart glasses etc. But that have to be predicated on the
       | fact that the technology just _isn't there_. Even if you had
       | amazing smart glasses that weren't massive shitty headsets (that
       | even if some people can tolerate, are worthless for work or on
       | the bus), you'd still have the problem that the UIs are useless.
       | Until we have way, way better AI assistants, you just can't have
       | AR/VR UIs. Because you _need_ high bandwidth text interfaces. In
       | the absence of keyboards that means voice, except the idea of
       | using crappy voice recognition at work, or walking around, is
       | deeply painful. So we'll need really good subvocalisation tech,
       | and that doesn't exist. We'll need really good AI agents (and I
       | genuinely believe the biggest concern of the metaverse is going
       | to be how machines interface with it, not humans), but they don't
       | exist. But that's fine, cos the headsets are crap so none of this
       | is a pressing concern and I am _utterly baffled_ why this
       | conversation is important in 2021. It's all years off.
       | 
       | So I do think this will all one day be relevant, but not now. But
       | even when it is, I think the _absolute least interesting_ bit of
       | it is embodied 3D spaces. Basically nobody has ever wanted that,
       | they don't want it now, they will never want it. It's just a
       | crappy way to do business. It's a fun way to play games, but you
       | know what, 3D on a 2D screen is still fine.
       | 
       | The longer this conversation continues, the more money gets sunk
       | into it, the crazier I feel. Nobody wants to go to work in
       | Minecraft. Nobody wants to go to the pub in Roblox. They're just
       | games that kids enjoy. You cannot build a trillion dollar
       | investment hypothesis off the back of games kids enjoy.
       | 
       | I dunno, this all sounds a bit grumpy, I'm sorry, but part of
       | that is that I genuinely do think there is interesting stuff to
       | discuss here. Maybe 3D worlds are dead on arrival. But making
       | internet spaces ubiquitous and ambient? Interesting. How can I as
       | a human, with privacy needs but a lust for reputation, inhabit
       | these spaces? Interesting. We're just concentrating on the
       | stupidest possible parts of the mataverse right now and there's
       | going to be a spectacular metaverse Winter if we don't dial down
       | the hype.
        
       | b20000 wrote:
       | there is no difference same bullshit different package
        
       | _Understated_ wrote:
       | I've often wondered if Mark Zuckerberg has anyone in his inner
       | corporate circle that is willing to say "no" to him.
       | 
       | Meta seems like there was a wall of post-it notes in Zuck's
       | office with a bunch of ideas to stop FB from becoming MySpace and
       | the dart he threw landed on this one.
       | 
       | My gut tells me that Meta is dead in the water but with the
       | billions that FB have in their war chest I wouldn't bet against
       | it completely, however, the fact it requires a headset, a massive
       | source of friction, will restrict the audience.
       | 
       | I dunno... seems like Zuck is living in a fantasy world here.
        
         | mabbo wrote:
         | Huh, that's a neat idea. What if Zuck is this generation's
         | George Lucas?
         | 
         | For context, after the success of Star Wars and Indiana Jones,
         | it's said that Lucas surrounded himself with yes-men who agreed
         | with whatever he said. Anyone who wasn't one of those didn't
         | last long in his inner circle.
         | 
         | The end result was "Star Wars: Episode 1 - The Phantom Menace".
         | There's an hour-long review video by "Mr Plinkett"[0] that
         | dives into the all the major issues of the film, along with
         | some honestly-not-great humour (imho) but at the end it really
         | explains what the problem was: Lucas had absolute control, and
         | everyone did what he said. And if the original Star Wars had
         | been that way it would have been a disaster.
         | 
         | [0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgWcNsdmoyE&t=3677s (The
         | whole video is good, but linking directly to the important bit
         | I mentioned).
        
           | prova_modena wrote:
           | There is also an official documentary about the making of
           | episode 1 that is viewable on YouTube.[0] Even though this
           | was produced as promotional material for the film's DVD
           | release, Lucas' total control and hubristic self regard are
           | barely concealed subtexts. There is a great scene where
           | Spielberg is visiting Lucas on set and they are just
           | repeating to each other "It'll be great!" or some such
           | platitude with forced enthusiasm. Even Lucas seemed to know
           | he was out of his depth.
           | 
           | [0] https://youtu.be/da8s9m4zEpo
        
       | mikevm wrote:
       | Only goofy asocial types think that you can actually replace
       | actual human interactions with virtual reality. Would you rather
       | actually meet your friends, or have your virtual avatars meet up
       | in some fake VR world?
        
         | wan23 wrote:
         | I'm sure someone said something similar when they first heard
         | of the telephone.
        
         | satyrnein wrote:
         | Used to be goofy asocial types on Usenet/IRC/etc, now the whole
         | world communicates via Facebook/Twitter/etc. So it's hard to
         | say!
        
         | Animats wrote:
         | That's an important point. Matthew Ball, the venture
         | capitalist, made the insightful comment a few months back that
         | COVID-19 changed that. It is now possible to use a virtual
         | world without being considered a loser.
        
           | mikevm wrote:
           | By the way, I'm a goofy introvert myself, so I hope people
           | don't see that as an insult or anything :).
           | 
           | COVID-19 might've made remote work mainstream, but I don't
           | think it will fundamentally change the way we interact with
           | other people in our social life. I think given the choice,
           | most people would rather go out to pubs, restaurants,
           | parties, etc... to experience other people face to face
           | rather than be stuck in a virtual world. The virtual world
           | was a last resort. Even during lockdowns people had
           | underground parties (I've even been in a few!).
           | 
           | I personally grew up spending much of my high school years in
           | IRC chatrooms, having virtual friendships with anonymous
           | people. But I'm an introvert, and most other kids did not
           | share my experience so I'm a bit skeptical on the mass appeal
           | of these virtual worlds.
        
       | keyle wrote:
       | If you strap enough rockets to a pig, it will fly.
       | 
       | If you throw enough cash at a problem, it will be "solved".
       | 
       | I remember google wave. Remember that? The noise it made when it
       | came out. What a mess. And then we got slack and discord and we
       | must admit it somewhat solves the same ideas.
       | 
       | So I don't know. We might very well be in VR goggles in 10 years
       | surrounded by 25 virtual screens, 5 notification systems and
       | parallel windows updates while bidding on a new VR background, on
       | a NFT trading platform using some shitty cryptocurrency we've
       | never heard of 2 weeks prior.
       | 
       | Or we could just be on a terminal in vim doing the same shit as
       | today.
       | 
       | I only hope we have choices. Because this new internet they're
       | trying to push is further away from RFCs and open protocols than
       | we've ever been. And that's very sad. Our parents gave us a free
       | internet where everything is possible, and we're doing our very
       | best to destroy that idea to a world of wall gardens and
       | consumerism where the very few will even know how it works.
        
         | mattdesl wrote:
         | Probably worth noting: many of the recent "metaverse/web3" (not
         | Metaverse) developments, for example ERC721, are also RFCs and
         | open protocols. Yet unlike typical web RFCs we've seen in the
         | last decade, they are generally not only decided upon and
         | ultimately driven by a small handful of browser monopolies.
        
         | high_5 wrote:
         | Google Wave was my first association when I've heard about FB
         | goin full meta(verse). The whole thing is just so "meta" it
         | just shows how they're trying to solve all the problems of
         | humanity by being blindsided by the opportunity of remote
         | work/life because of COVID. Metaverse is just too abstract as
         | Google Wave was.
        
         | manquer wrote:
         | Google wave was largely about real time collaboration.
         | 
         | Most of those ideas live on Google docs , SharePoint and notion
         | and other tools. Am not sure how discord or slack solves the
         | same ideas.
         | 
         | it was a hard problem to solve especially back then CRDTs were
         | not baked in to any out of box large scale db, however it
         | wasn't premature .
         | 
         | To me it always looked like an experimental product from which
         | mature product took the good parts, no different from Gmail
         | incorporating ideas from Inbox
        
         | herbst wrote:
         | Remember when Google worked on a second Life killer? I think it
         | was called lifely or so.
        
           | native_samples wrote:
           | Lively. One of the many Google products they killed that
           | nobody mourns or remembers.
           | 
           | Wave, Lively and Second Life have some useful lessons in them
           | that it may be worth recalling. Second Life is/was of course
           | the most ambitious attempt to build a metaverse, by far. It
           | never broke out of its niche in the way Minecraft did partly
           | due to insurmountable frame rate and resource usage problems
           | that Linden Lab assumed at the start they'd inevitably
           | overcome, but which they never really did. It's also the
           | reason SL couldn't have been used in VR. Lively was to some
           | extent an attempt to solve this problem with Second Life.
           | However it simply created a different, worse set of problems.
           | Lively also suffered from being seen as the pet product of
           | one of the (at the time) extremely rare female product
           | managers at Google, so she was basically given a team and
           | budget to do what she wanted because hey! Isn't that great!
           | Go women! But the project didn't actually have any executive
           | support and the cutesy design was seen as wildly out of step
           | with Google's brand at the time. So when it failed to set the
           | world on fire immediately it was quickly shelved and the PM
           | moved on.
           | 
           | SL's biggest problem is that it's very difficult to render
           | user-generated content performantly, in ways that look good.
           | Minecraft solves this problem by sacrificing the 'looks good'
           | aspect, partly because it had no pretence of being a
           | metaverse, but SL explicitly wanted to do the Snow Crash
           | thing and thus allowed you to place more or less arbitrary
           | scripted 3D meshes inside the world. Unfortunately the
           | structure of the world, and how users wanted to use it, were
           | the opposite of how you do performant 3D graphics:
           | 
           | 1. SL is set outdoors. Thus draw distances are huge and many,
           | many objects can be captured by the camera simultaneously.
           | This places huge load on the CPU and GPU. At the time, the
           | standard was for 3D games to be set indoors, largely to limit
           | draw distance.
           | 
           | 2. Many constructions in SL are buildings that contain
           | translucent windows. This is much more intensive to render
           | (requires overdraw).
           | 
           | 3. Many constructions in SL are very odd shapes which make it
           | difficult to rapidly determine if they intersect things. Part
           | of why "land" in SL was so expensive was the need to run
           | physics simulations and collision detection against objects
           | that were not designed to make it cheap.
           | 
           | 4. Because every object was fully dynamic and the user could
           | change the world at any time, all optimizations based on
           | batch processing of static data e.g. lightmap baking, were
           | unavailable to SL, trashing their performance still further.
           | 
           | 5. Because land was all adjacent in one uniform world, at the
           | edges renderer performance was effectively a tragedy of the
           | commons. Even in the rare cases that an SL content creator
           | learned about the limits of the SL 3D engine and worked
           | within them, their hard work could be undone by someone in
           | land next to them constructing a giant tower filled with
           | translucent windows.
           | 
           | Lively attempted to solve these problems by limiting art to a
           | team of professional 3D artists. However this gave the world
           | an entirely predictable, sterile corporate feel that appealed
           | to nobody. Same problem as why Lego Worlds failed to compete
           | with Minecraft. Additionally the Lively team had to spend a
           | lot of engineering effort dealing with Google's
           | infrastructure decisions, which at the time were optimized
           | for apps that could use eventual consistency. See my comment
           | from a few days ago on this topic [1].
           | 
           | The relevance to Wave is mostly that Wave was sort of the 2D
           | content version of Second Life. It went all-in on very hard
           | computer science problems, and did so _in a web browser_ , on
           | the assumption that they'd just figure out how to make it
           | performant later. But they never did. Moreover the
           | flexibility of the tool meant it was often confusing to
           | figure out and quickly developed a perception that it was
           | half baked, buggy and required a mastery of the tool to use.
           | For something explicitly about collaboration rather than
           | content creation, that was fatal. Finally it also suffered
           | the same problem as Lively in that the project was basically
           | a gift to the co-founders of Maps for their success and the
           | Australia office as a whole. The team played corporate
           | politics very badly, adopting a culture of internal secrecy
           | within Google that was not only alien and controversial but
           | which also meant they pissed off other teams (whom they were
           | competing with), and failed to build support amongst the
           | senior executive level. When they failed to take off quickly
           | enough they lost executive support and the project was
           | quickly killed.
           | 
           | [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29086825
        
       | pharmakom wrote:
       | Whatever happened to chat bots?
        
       | 01100011 wrote:
       | Do you mean the Facebook metaverse or the general concept?
       | 
       | I can't comment on Facebook. The current discussion surrounding
       | the 'metaverse' often describes something that is more open,
       | almost like the internet. Whether or not this happens in practice
       | remains to be seen. I think the idea is that you may be able to
       | teleport between worlds(servers run by companies or other
       | entities) and carry some amount of your state with you.
       | 
       | I remain cynical. As someone who grew up reading William Gibson
       | and dreaming of 'cyberspace' you'd think I'd be excited but I see
       | this as being just as boring as Second Life and There but with
       | better graphics. The metaverse talk lately reminds me of when CE
       | mfgs decided they needed to push 3DTV on everyone because they
       | were running out of fancy new things to drive TV sales. This is
       | likely just a way to create a new channel for monetizing.
        
         | 0des wrote:
         | The Facebook metaverse
        
           | Animats wrote:
           | Facebook has already had three tries at the metaverse - the
           | Oculus version, Facebook Spaces, and Facebook Horizon.
           | They're all so bad that Facebook won't give out user counts.
        
         | rhizome wrote:
         | Whatever anybody thinks "metaverse" means now, what it _really_
         | means, Facebook is going to change it permanently or go out of
         | business. They have to be able to define away every negative
         | aspect of their new metaphorical identity or they 'll be used
         | to undermine every future development of FB.
         | 
         | Meta was created out of a life or death situation (perceived or
         | otherwise), so they have to gain control over their future so
         | that it isn't possible for that to happen again. None of
         | Gibson's words can prevent or counteract this.
        
           | 88913527 wrote:
           | We're all talking about the Metaverse instead of whatever
           | else is going on with Facebook. So it changed the public
           | narrative. However, the latest earnings report was fine, so
           | rumors of Meta's demise are quite exaggerated. Their other
           | web properties will remain profitable for a long time.
           | 
           | I see many others here calling out FB's pending decline, but
           | I don't see anyone offering a clear thesis for how it
           | happens. It could simply be wishful thinking. Locking down
           | iOS doesn't mean Meta can't do targeted advertising with all
           | previously collected data. Less effective, sure, but not
           | meaningfully so.
        
             | manquer wrote:
             | Not financial death. Oracle is having the best years and
             | making a ton of profit, but it is boring company with
             | mediocre work and toxic reputations. Oracle cloud is still
             | being sold and no cares. FB doesn't want to become the next
             | Oracle
             | 
             | It is about its relevance as a cool tech company. They will
             | not be able to hire or retain the best engineers with
             | current reputation problem they have.
        
             | herbst wrote:
             | IMO Facebook's actual death is mostly visible in RL.
             | 
             | The only people in my circle left on Facebook were the
             | party seeking folks. Now with Corona the organisation of
             | parties changed enough to render facebook irrelevant. Now
             | left are mid 30 single moms who likely spend more time on
             | Instagram anyway.
             | 
             | Then there is WhatsApp. I can tell it had bad news again
             | when I get a sudden rush of 'x is now using telegram'. I
             | can't remember the last time someone asked me for a
             | WhatsApp number.
             | 
             | Instagram is similar, once a daily driver for some it now
             | looks and appears like a ad platform where most content
             | wandered elsewhere (tiktok for that matter)
             | 
             | Sure this is anectotal, but in my environment Facebook
             | actually is visible dying.
        
       | mgraczyk wrote:
       | I'm a former Facebook employee, and also worked on VR at Google
       | ~2015.
       | 
       | I don't think it's different. I think if you went back in time
       | and asked 18 year old Zuck what the future of online interaction
       | would be, he'd basically tell you about second life.
       | 
       | The only difference is that now the technology is better and
       | enough people who are not Zuck are talking about it, so Zuck can
       | steer the ship without everyone jumping off.
        
       | concinds wrote:
       | I just see it as a business opportunity. Half an hour better
       | spend in nature than with goggles, but surely you can make good
       | money from it early on.
        
       | Ono-Sendai wrote:
       | Hardware, internet connections, and software is better now.
        
       | rudian wrote:
       | Reality is that this is just Zuck yapping his mouth. Nobody cares
       | nor will care about this, video calls will continue as they've
       | always done, Second Life will stay niche, there's no AR until my
       | phone makes me hallucinate.
       | 
       | We got a couple more decades at least for AR to happen.
        
       | MrRiddle wrote:
       | I am completely guessing here, but I assume average device used
       | to visit Facebook is an $150 Android phone. Metaverse would
       | require multiple times more expensive equipment. Until the whole
       | world gets a lot more prosperous, average user simply won't be
       | able to use the product. The product that relies on number of
       | users.
        
         | higeorge13 wrote:
         | I came to write exactly this. The app ecosystem grew due to the
         | insane numbers of users having a >50$ smartphone everywhere in
         | the world; and this is what made fb and the rest of companies
         | what they are at the moment. The price barrier to enter the
         | vr/ar world would be considerably higher and almost unreachable
         | in the 3rd or developing world, which is fb's main audience.
        
           | satyrnein wrote:
           | _3rd or developing world, which is fb's main audience._
           | 
           | Maybe by volume, but where do they make their money?
        
             | higeorge13 wrote:
             | There are so many apps targeting people in developing
             | countries; fintech, crypto, ads, commerce, etc all
             | accessible by a 50$ smartphone from some remote city in
             | Nigeria or Guatemala. I can't really see a vr/ar
             | marketplace targeting these people, but perhaps i am short
             | sighted.
        
       | bitwize wrote:
       | SL was actually closer to Stephenson's metaverse than whatever
       | adtech nonsense Zuck is pushing is likely to be.
        
       | tdeck wrote:
       | It's popped up again because they made a movie out of Ready
       | Player One, so now lots of people are talking about the VR
       | immersive world concept after watching that movie.
        
       | musicale wrote:
       | Pretty much.
       | 
       | The possibly good news is it shows that Facebook doesn't really
       | know how to avert its own decline.
        
         | rhizome wrote:
         | Google Search and Android are worse than they were before
         | Alphabet.
        
       | nbzso wrote:
       | From accessibility POV - AR/VR is not an easy and comfortable
       | enough to be mass adopted.
       | 
       | If you have to "wear" your Desktop on your head and put on a
       | "sensors" body costume, guess how much people will do it
       | voluntarily. Yep. Small group of people.
       | 
       | You have to provide something "out of this world" to even think
       | for mass adoption. This in my view is just another data-grabbing
       | platform and push to walled garden SaaS. It is logical big tech
       | to push it hard. Microsoft, Apple, you name it.
       | 
       | And this is in my view the controversy with Facebook. FB is mass
       | social network. Successfully integrated in the daily routine of
       | the "normies" trough several apps.
       | 
       | Suddenly they push Meta, which as I mentioned is clearly small
       | use-case. Branching this as a tool for "immersive" experience is
       | vague attempt for justification and clearly PR move for
       | distracting public from the toxic reality of the company which
       | used dopamine hacks and psychology driven dark UX to become "the
       | next advertising" platform.
       | 
       | Until AR/VR is hologram driven, nothing will come out of this
       | Metaverse. Just some corporations capitalizing on "enthusiast"
       | market and suckling more data than usual.
        
       | npunt wrote:
       | Web 1 had a lot of ideas that failed because they were too early,
       | not because they were inherently bad ideas. Not sure if Metaverse
       | will work exactly like SL did, or if its even the right idea, but
       | it certainly will have a larger audience and lower cost of entry
       | for both users and developers.
        
         | sillysaurusx wrote:
         | This is the correct answer. Lots of old ideas were in fact
         | horrible ideas, until suddenly they weren't. Cannons were
         | awful, right up till Napoleon proved otherwise.
         | 
         | I think people are so skeptical due to a combination of
         | disliking Facebook and the usual "overestimating the impact of
         | years, underestimating the impact of decades."
         | 
         | Wouldn't it be remarkable if 2021 happened to get the web
         | exactly right? Think of it: in 3021, people will be using
         | Twitter just like they do now, with Chrome and plugins and all
         | the rest.
         | 
         | Projecting forward helps dispel your own preconceptions. And
         | then you conclude "Why not build it now?" -- There's often not
         | much standing in the way, except a whole lot of work (along
         | with a fair bit of luck).
         | 
         | It seems like most of us just don't want Facebook to own the
         | next Twitter. Admittedly, that's a scary proposition.
         | 
         | I suppose my advice would be to become comfortable with that
         | sooner than later. Zuck has never gotten big bets wrong. It's
         | possible this will be the first, but I wouldn't want to take
         | the other side of that bet if my money was on the line.
        
         | 88913527 wrote:
         | It's hard for me to imagine one of the incumbents leading the
         | next generation of innovation, despite the copious amounts of
         | capital to execute it. They view the world through their own
         | Overton window, such that the next leap forward will originate
         | from some perspective independent of their own. Brick-and-
         | mortar stores weren't going to be the ones pushing online
         | sales. A lot of the last few years have been copy/paste product
         | ideas from other smaller social media companies: that's the
         | reality. FB realized not everything has to be a timeline. At
         | best, Meta could be something truly novel, but at its worst,
         | it's just marketing to paper over the lack of innovative
         | Product leadership within FB.
        
           | psyc wrote:
           | Meta can buy fresh blood. Oculus was acquired. Parts of
           | Oculus were acquired and acquihired. If a smaller company
           | innovates in this space, acquisition by Meta is an obvious
           | business plan. Zuckerberg is a geek almost young enough to be
           | my kid. If I can imagine a thriving metaverse, and I can, I
           | don't see why he can't.
        
       | brundolf wrote:
       | My question with the metaverse concept is always, "Why? What's
       | the point?"
       | 
       | I can think of two parties that have their own answers:
       | 
       | 1) A certain group of people who like computers and grew up
       | reading sci-fi think it would be cool; some even tell themselves
       | it's very important, but for vague reasons that they can't really
       | articulate
       | 
       | 2) Centers of capital are interested in it as yet another
       | platform for consumption, attention-capturing, and rent-seeking
       | 
       | I think Zuckerberg is both. But I'm not convinced that society at
       | large has any real motivation to buy into something like this,
       | unless the sheer novelty ends up being powerful enough to rope
       | people in.
       | 
       | Note that a world without a "metaverse" still has a place for
       | VR/AR. Having a complete, interconnected virtual world is not a
       | prerequisite for all the utilities and entertainment that that
       | hardware technology can be used for. And to me it just feels like
       | an incredibly unnecessary layer on top, which serves no real
       | purpose to anyone outside of those first two groups.
        
         | crubier wrote:
         | I agree. At this point Zucks metaverse sounds just like another
         | XBox Home Screen, in VR. A place were you want to spend as
         | little time as possible, on your way to use the real apps.
        
         | monkzero wrote:
         | Books told stories for ages, but movies enhanced the experience
         | and created a new breed of people who pre movies over books.
         | Similarly we use phones for all our purposes, xr will enhance
         | it
        
           | brundolf wrote:
           | The difference is that your phone is a _utility_ , not a
           | piece of art. So XR would have to be more _practical_ than
           | the current interface, which, maybe advanced AR will be. But
           | even then, that 's just an AR GUI, not a "metaverse".
           | 
           | And then on the non-utilitarian side, XR
           | entertainment/storytelling is already a thing. You don't need
           | a metaverse for that.
        
         | eismcc wrote:
         | Maybe like Ready Player One, people will use Meta if the
         | outside / real word sucks enough. Here you can be anything you
         | want to be...
        
           | pessimizer wrote:
           | Only if what you want to be is two floating eyes and two
           | floating hands in a videogame.
        
         | ridruejo wrote:
         | It's an evolution of how you can communicate: pictures/written
         | form -> 2D movies -> 3D movies -> AR/VR.
        
         | Xplune13 wrote:
         | You wrote the exact same thing I wanted to write. I still
         | haven't got a satisfactory answer to that question though.
        
         | captn3m0 wrote:
         | I have a similar take on how VR lets you show ads much beyond a
         | rectangular screen, so plausibly commands higher ad revenue if
         | monetised. FB needs to grow the pie bigger: the user growth is
         | flatlining.
        
           | otabdeveloper4 wrote:
           | Facebook's ad product is shit. They exist because they're a
           | monopoly. Their ad product is shit because they don't
           | understand their clients (advertisers) _at all_ and would
           | rather sink R-n-D into keeping the monopoly thing going
           | instead of figuring out market fit for their product. (In
           | that regard Facebook is exactly like Google.)
           | 
           | t. Worked more than 16 years in ad tech.
        
             | stonecraftwolf wrote:
             | Out of curiosity, what don't they understand about
             | advertisers?
        
         | polote wrote:
         | The only thing that counts when you create a B2C product is how
         | much time each user will spend time on your product per day.
         | 
         | There is no goal to achieve for the user. Zuck is a very smart
         | guy and knows that Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok,
         | Twitter, Youtube ... are activities for people. And those
         | activities will keep being popular only a handful of years. If
         | you don't want the Meta Inc, company's revenue to collapse you
         | have to innovate and be part of the next hot thing.
         | 
         | Nobody knows what is going to be the next hot thing, Zuck just
         | want it to be the metaverse. So the metaverse doesn't need to
         | have a point, it just needs to be successful
        
           | brundolf wrote:
           | > There is no goal to achieve for the user
           | 
           | I mean... there won't be users at all if there's _nothing_ in
           | it for the user.
        
           | freewilly1040 wrote:
           | The value to Mark Zuckerberg is obvious, the question is
           | what's the value to users? Why is it fun? Why is it
           | interesting?
        
       | bunkydoo wrote:
       | Mark fuckerberg is just cracked out. This is his rich guy thing.
       | Bezos and musk have rockets, but this guy thinks he's gonna bring
       | Tron or the Matrix to reality. Luckily most people don't want
       | this
        
       | fulafel wrote:
       | Metaverse was coined and the concept introduced in Snow Crash in
       | the beginning of the 90s.
        
       | meheleventyone wrote:
       | The metaverse is noise.
       | 
       | The interesting long term stuff that will come out of this is
       | computing more integrated into your whole life with AR. This is
       | going to need a more networked, spatially aware, OS like
       | abstraction than we've had to date. The scary part of that is FB
       | making the play to own it and presumably all the data that can be
       | harvested by being implicitly jacked into your entire life.
       | 
       | Apple are presumably working on the same thing for the same
       | reasons but want you jacked into their ecosystem instead.
       | 
       | I believe the net result of what we'll get is several competing
       | walled gardens with interop at the app level as we see with
       | phones these days.
       | 
       | The Web3 side of this is a mix of vultures taking easy money,
       | well meaning people without backing and VC backed companies
       | preaching decentralisation but offering themselves up either as
       | middlemen or the beginning of another platform with the attendant
       | lock-in. It primarily seems to be a way to get out of the rent
       | seeking world of platforms into a rent seeking world for
       | everything.
        
         | Def_Os wrote:
         | Although slightly depressing, this seems to me the most likely
         | outcome too.
        
       | ToddWBurgess wrote:
       | As a mobile dev (and former Second Life player), I am skeptical
       | about the metaverse due to limitations of current mobile
       | hardware. Using the metaverse is going to require the screen to
       | always be on and will consume the CPU which leads to a huge
       | battery suck. We already saw this play out with Pokemon Go
       | leading to lots of players to carry around external battery
       | packs.
       | 
       | Unless mobile technology has some major revolution with battery
       | life or Facebook/Meta can find a way to use the metaverse without
       | a screen or sucking battery life, I think mobile tech will
       | severely hinder users from using the metaverse.
       | 
       | Now to bring things back to the original quesion, when Second
       | Life was a thing, mobile tech was mostly flip phones and
       | Blackberries so mobile wasn't an option. Users could only use the
       | desktop and were fine with it because it is all we knew at the
       | time. Being a desktop only application was never an issue for the
       | users. The current demand to support multiple platforms when many
       | of those platforms are not capable of supporting the metaverse is
       | what makes the current metaverse different than Second Life.
        
       | retrocryptid wrote:
       | maybe FB figured out a way to do a virtual world on the cheap and
       | this is there way to force google and apple to jump in play catch
       | up. a bit of misdirection... while aapl and xyz are distracted by
       | shiny objects, FB is working on their _REAL_ product.
       | 
       | meh. it's a fun conspiracy theory.
        
       | wy35 wrote:
       | The comments here are much, much more pessimistic than I
       | expected. Yes, AR/VR is still a novelty, and it has been for a
       | while. However, anything innovative started off as being
       | dismissed as toys [0]. VR tech has improved immensely from its
       | inception, but there is a gap -- people need a reason to use it
       | beyond its initial wow factor. The "metaverse" is the proposed
       | solution for the gap.
       | 
       | [0]: http://paulgraham.com/startupideas.html
        
       | alex_young wrote:
       | Remember when they were going to fix the entire financial system
       | with a new crypto currency centralized amongst a few nodes? That
       | was only a couple of years ago. Seems unlikely that this grand
       | idea is any more likely to actually happen.
        
         | herbst wrote:
         | Or when they wanted to bring 'free walled garden intranets'
         | over the whole world and the related countries like India
         | pushed them away.
        
       | jl6 wrote:
       | Are there any interesting Long Bets being made about the future
       | success or failure of the metaverse?
       | 
       | I could imagine making some money on the following: "by 2030, the
       | number of VR users of the metaverse will be less than 1% of the
       | number of users of other social media apps".
       | 
       | (Unless they pull some definitional stunt like saying "you used
       | AR once on the Facebook app therefore we are counting you as a
       | metaverse user").
        
       | gfodor wrote:
       | It's simple really, and most commenters don't "get" what is going
       | on with all this.
       | 
       | Remote communication tools like video conferencing fail to
       | deliver what academics call "social presence", which is the
       | feeling of being together in unmediated communication. VR and AR
       | have the necessary capabilities to do so, and deliver social
       | presence on par with face to face. With a fully immersive
       | experience, you can feel like you are standing next to a person
       | talking to them, regardless of their physical location. Body
       | language, eye contact, etc all come through.
       | 
       | That is the core capability that will disrupt all industry, it is
       | more a matter of when not if. The current hardware clearly is not
       | hitting the mark for sudden mass adoption. The hardware will
       | eventually, even if we have to wait until it becomes something
       | like sunglasses or even contact lenses.
       | 
       | From first principles, having computers override what photons you
       | see will have huge effects, but don't focus so much on the shiny
       | video game world aspects: it's all about removing the need for
       | physical co-location to communicate, work, and spend time
       | together with full social presence. This is why Zuck bought
       | Oculus, and why he has pivoted his company around the entire
       | thing. It's not because of "Ready Player One", but because he
       | feels that hardware/software will modulate most person to person
       | communication soon, and he wants it to be his stack.
        
         | Havoc wrote:
         | Pretty clear explanation. Thanks for posting
        
         | tomp wrote:
         | Just because "remote social presence / coworking" is the
         | future, doesn't mean that Facebook is on track to capitalize on
         | it.
         | 
         | For example, I'd much prefer a "mirror-sized realtime video"
         | (i.e. a "window into the other office") kind of experience,
         | where I don't _actually_ need to wear a helmet.
         | 
         | And there aren't even that many technological obstacles to
         | that; just good TVs, with good software, and fast enough
         | internet connection. Add a bit of eye/head tracking (to
         | approximate 3D from different viewpoints) and it'll be very
         | real-like.
        
         | shafyy wrote:
         | I agree that social presence is the most underrated aspect of
         | VR, especially from people who have never tried it. Of course,
         | it's not there yet, but if you experience it today you can see
         | glimpses of how it will be in the future.
         | 
         | However, that has nothing to do with the "metaverse". Metaverse
         | is just a fancy word Facebook is trying to establish to somehow
         | rebrand their walled-off social media platforms.
        
           | gfodor wrote:
           | I agree Facebook is kinda taking their eye off the prize by
           | focusing on the metaverse concepts. But they're not dumb,
           | they understand what I wrote above, so there might be a
           | reason this is being done towards that end.
        
             | shafyy wrote:
             | No, they are not dumb at all. That's why they are
             | rebranding "social media" as "metaverse" and trying to own
             | the whole stack (hardware + software) this time around.
             | They are not taking their eye off the prize. The VR tech
             | they build is objectively amazing, and if they continue
             | like this they will own the biggest VR social network, at
             | least initially.
             | 
             | Edit: All I'm saying is that the metaverse is not some new
             | concept. It's bascially social media enabled by the
             | internet, but for some reason we start calling it metaverse
             | when access through the medium of VR.
        
           | tehbeard wrote:
           | > ... social presence is the most underrated aspect of VR ...
           | Of course, it's not there yet, ...
           | 
           | All this "body language" talk neglects that vr tracks at most
           | your head and hands. Not how people are stood, or even facial
           | expressions. "Body language" indeed. Too day nothing of the
           | whirly Hurley motion sickness from it.
           | 
           | Maybe one day, but I put it in the same bucket as fusion.
        
             | gfodor wrote:
             | No, we were doing full body tracking with perception neuron
             | inertial sensors tracking 7 years ago in AltspaceVR. My
             | guess is the zero cost option is going to be using a home
             | mirror, as recently demoed. It can also be done with
             | outside in cameras, was done with Kinect literally almost a
             | decade ago or with lighthouse pucks from valve 4-5 years
             | ago. Facial and eye tracking will almost certainly be in
             | the next meta headset.
             | 
             | Motion sickness goes down with each generation and is also
             | largely a function of software design anyway. You're very
             | behind the curve.
        
         | dathinab wrote:
         | > fail to deliver what academics call "social presence", which
         | is the feeling of being together in unmediated communication
         | 
         | Do they fail? I don't thinks so, when I e.g. play D&D like
         | games over voice only chat + a shared map it totally convoys
         | the "felling of being together" (just one of many examples).
         | 
         | On the other side when in-person sitting in a conference room
         | where a person takes 30min to convey some (for me) mostly
         | irrelevant facts which could have been summarized in a single
         | slide there isn't really any "feeling together" and weather I'm
         | sitting there or at home or use a headset on a train station
         | makes literally no difference.
         | 
         | What makes people "feel together" is interaction and being
         | focused together on a specific think. This doesn't need VR or
         | AR at all.
         | 
         | Also what people totally forget is that moving company meetings
         | and similar into VR has a number of problems:
         | 
         | - everyone needs to have a VR headset with them and a
         | reasonable good internet connection
         | 
         | - everyone needs to be able to use a VR headset, but even with
         | the best headset there are tons of people out there which get
         | motion sickness from it (or from many things which convey 3D
         | weather it's in VR or in a PC game) this people are much less
         | rare then many thing.
         | 
         | - the platform needs to convey the feeling, as I mentioned
         | above "just putting it in VR" doesn't mean it works. Also more
         | important the "virtual venue" you meet has no reason to be
         | anything like the real world, like at all. So there is no
         | reason to replicate all the limitations from the real world.
         | But Facebook seems to be exactly trying to do this.
         | 
         | Facebook positioned themself well by owning one of the most
         | affordable VR headsets.
         | 
         | But the meta-verse thing isn't looking too good IMHO.
         | 
         | What companies want isn't a virtual world, but a virtual
         | meeting room.
         | 
         | What people want is being whatever they want to be in VR, and
         | potentially have different identities for different social
         | cycles (mainly work, friends, family). So not quite what
         | Facebook is building, to some degree even the opposite thing.
        
           | gfodor wrote:
           | You quoted half of my definition. Google it.
        
         | somewhereoutth wrote:
         | Until we can see each other's faces in VR, this won't work for
         | social presence. Shrinking everything down to contact lenses
         | (even sunglasses get in the way of social contact) is likely to
         | be beyond us for quite some while if ever. I'd rather not put
         | something in my eye anyway.
         | 
         | Further, VR does not work well for switching - you can't be in
         | VR and scribble notes at the same time. AR might be an
         | improvement, but not by much.
         | 
         | Video conferencing does not suffer from any of these problems,
         | and works pretty well for collaboration. 'Zoom fatigue' is
         | definitely a thing though - it's unclear whether VR fatigue
         | would be better or worse.
         | 
         | VR/AR will see limited adoption for certain specialised use
         | cases only.
        
           | crawsome wrote:
           | We all just need our own Council of Thirteen (From the
           | Venture Bros)
           | 
           | https://i.cdn.turner.com/adultswim/big/image-
           | upload/thumbnai...
        
           | Taylor_OD wrote:
           | All of these points could start with the word, "Currently, ".
           | Don't you think having one of the world largest companies
           | throwing massive amounts of time and money into these issues
           | could solve a few of these?
        
             | mulderc wrote:
             | Given that several of the largest and wealthiest companies
             | (google and Microsoft) in the world can't make decent chat
             | apps and meta seems unable to make a product that doesn't
             | incite ethnic tensions around the world. I'm skeptical of
             | such organizations to solve many of these issues.
        
               | gfodor wrote:
               | The progression from DK1 to Quest 2 proves that effective
               | technological miracles are in the reach of Facebook's VR
               | group. It's pretty insane what has been done so far.
        
               | mulderc wrote:
               | We have very different definitions of insane apparently.
               | I enjoy my quest 2 but it still very much feels like a
               | smartphone strapped to my face. Basic aspects of the
               | software like the guardian have issues all the time. Each
               | software update seems to fix some bugs and introduce new
               | ones.
               | 
               | I am deeply skeptical meta is going to make the kinds of
               | fundamental breakthroughs that will make VR mainstream
               | and useful to people. Right now they are basically brute
               | forcing the issue with tons of money and even then I am a
               | bit underwhelmed and I use my quest almost daily.
        
               | dathinab wrote:
               | You need to separate technical progression of VR headsets
               | from the whole meta-verse idea.
               | 
               | It's out of question that Facebook (and other companies)
               | did a good job in progressing VR headsets technology
               | (through I wouldn't call it a miracle).
               | 
               | But the meta-verse idea as presented by Facebook doesn't
               | look too promising IMHO. It looks out of touch with
               | reality and it's from Facebook. A company well known to
               | try to force their world view onto all other people
               | around the world, ignoring any ethical questions arising.
               | Sure by renaming themself they will manage to somewhat
               | run away from their responsibilities, but as they don't
               | really change their ways it's just a mater of time until
               | we will have the next batch of scandals, now attached to
               | the "meta"-name instead of Facebook.
        
           | roveo wrote:
           | There are algos that reconstruct photorealistic 3D facial
           | expressions from headset cameras in realtime.
           | 
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3XcQtoja_Y
        
           | charlesju wrote:
           | https://twitter.com/cdixon/status/1442201621266534402
           | 
           | Please read this, and then read up on why everyone is talking
           | about web 3.0.
           | 
           | This isn't a phase of the metaverse that is going to be
           | different because of screen and control technology, it's an
           | ownership and control shift.
        
             | gfodor wrote:
             | These trends are converging but the most valuable
             | contribution of HMDs imo is remote social presence. It's
             | not their only contribution, and the economic revolution of
             | web3 would have happened without HMDs imo.
        
           | mettamage wrote:
           | You don't need to shrink down, you might be able to scan
           | faces in vr glasses and put them in the vr world
        
             | runnerup wrote:
             | The HP Omnicept, based on the Reverb G2, adds a camera that
             | points at the lower half of the face and a Tobii eye
             | tracker looking at the eyes.
             | 
             | You could do a LOT of avatar face reconstruction with that.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | TigeriusKirk wrote:
             | Meta is of course working on exactly this.
        
           | gfodor wrote:
           | What you're posting here is "common knowledge", but it is
           | actually in conflict with social presence research. VR beats
           | video conferencing even without any facial tracking, and the
           | abject failure of video conferencing in the pandemic to
           | replace most of the feeling of face to face communication
           | should be enough to convince people there is merit to the
           | studies that have been done showing it scores poorly.
           | 
           | In VR you multitask by bringing the computing environment
           | into the virtual environment. So there is no deficit there. I
           | think you haven't tried these things before so you are just
           | speculating.
        
             | teucris wrote:
             | Interesting. Links to research?
        
               | sweetdreamerit wrote:
               | The literature I know defines social presence as
               | something that has only partially to do with technology
               | (and Virtual Reality) [0]. The advantage of VR is that it
               | can enhance the sense of immersivity in some
               | circumstances [1]. [0] https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/ab
               | s/10.1080/01587919.2017.13... [1]
               | https://scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu/handle/10125/50061
        
               | gfodor wrote:
               | Here is a talk I gave a few years ago - I haven't kept up
               | tho so there may be better sources now.
               | 
               | https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_5w8xbeCc2Q
        
             | somewhereoutth wrote:
             | I'd be curious to know how VR beats video conferencing - by
             | what metrics etc.
             | 
             | Video conferencing has certainly been wildly _successful_
             | in actually getting (collaborative) work done - though in
             | fact it is screen sharing that is the secret ingredient
             | here. Would screen sharing in VR be any different? I guess
             | 3D models or images could be shared usefully.
             | 
             | It is notable the difference between tele conferencing and
             | video conferencing - and that difference is faces (and
             | screensharing). Until VR can show faces, it is basically a
             | tele conference with a puppet show.
             | 
             | My point about switching is that in VR you are completely
             | immersed, so are limited to what the VR provides, whereas
             | with a vid conference I can e.g. go make some coffee while
             | still participating. I'm limited mainly by social
             | convention, not the technology itself. The nature of modern
             | work is we are at the centre of various tools and
             | technologies (half of which are a bit broken) that we
             | choreograph together to get useful stuff done. No VR system
             | could hope to replicate it all.
             | 
             | Actually I'm currently working on a VR project (amongst
             | other things), so these concerns are real and pertinent to
             | me.
             | 
             | (As ever with engineering there is a tendency to focus on
             | the what and the how, instead of the who and the why.
             | Furthermore, people will use technology as they see fit,
             | which might be quite different from how it's inventors
             | intended or envisioned. To develop on this point, even the
             | most 'non-technical' human is an accomplished tool user,
             | and they won't be reading the manual anymore than they
             | absolutely have to.)
        
             | dathinab wrote:
             | The ting is the "felling together" part is less dependent
             | on the medium (real workd, audio, video, VR) but on the way
             | the meeting is held.
             | 
             | Video conferencing didn't fail because video conferencing
             | is fundamentally bad but because:
             | 
             | - meetings are often done in a fundamental bad way, where
             | people don't have any "felling together" even is they sit
             | physically in the same room.
             | 
             | - people having bad microphones, the video part in a video
             | conference is the least important the audio part is what
             | makes it work or fail (because meetings are all about
             | speaking, except if you are mute/deaf, in which case VR
             | might help).
             | 
             | - technical difficulties all over the place, there is no
             | reason for this to get better with VR
             | 
             | - peoples homes being fundamental unsuited for conferences
             | (i.e. a lot of background noise), again nothing which will
             | change with VR
             | 
             | - also VR headsets and mimic don't work well together,
             | proper gestic is possible but often requires full body
             | tracking which put more requirements to the environment you
             | use it in.
             | 
             | - VR headsets are much more straining to use then audio-
             | only conferences, and somewhat more straining then video
             | conferences. Which can be a major no-go for anyone doing
             | many conferences, like the management deciding weather or
             | not to buy into it.
             | 
             | - Companies want virtual meeting rooms not a meta-verse,
             | something which already exists, and looks better then the
             | honestly crappy looking thinks Facebook presented.
        
               | Tagbert wrote:
               | If people use microphones with noise cancellation, it can
               | remove most of the background noise. When I was still in
               | the office I used a Jabra headset with a noise
               | suppressing microphone, I could speak on a call with
               | people talking nearby and their conversation was not
               | noticeable on the call. I would hope that a VR/AR headset
               | for this purpose would have a similar microphone setup.
        
               | gfodor wrote:
               | I wrote "feeling together in unmediated communication" on
               | purpose. The unmediated part is the most important part
               | of the definition.
        
             | jonnycomputer wrote:
             | And the actual benefit of the feeling of face to face
             | communication is?
        
               | gfodor wrote:
               | We spend a sizable % of US energy moving physical bodies
               | around, so apparently people do in fact like face to face
               | communication.
        
             | johnny53169 wrote:
             | > In VR you multitask by bringing the computing environment
             | into the virtual environment. So there is no deficit there.
             | 
             | Writing/typing would be really bad in VR though, and that's
             | a major need for meetings, I don't see a good solution for
             | that.
        
               | gfodor wrote:
               | The solution is you use a keyboard and mouse. No need to
               | reinvent the wheel. It can be brought in via passthrough
               | camera tracking.
        
               | dbbk wrote:
               | This seems like an awful lot of hoops to jump through to
               | get to something which is still not at all compelling.
        
         | umvi wrote:
         | I'll believe it when I see it. I think most people will find
         | the cost of strapping on headsets to be greater than benefits
         | of the social presence it provides
        
           | gfodor wrote:
           | For a given headset there is an activation cost and presumed
           | benefit that gets someone to use it. The activation costs
           | will continue to trend downward as passthrough AR gets
           | deployed and size/weight goes down, among other things, and
           | the presumed benefits will go up as cultural norms start to
           | interface with this technology and more and more applications
           | come online.
        
         | twobitshifter wrote:
         | If that's the plan, Google is well ahead of Facebook for
         | recreating presence with their starline demo. That gives you
         | body language eye contact etc without the big headset and
         | paddles - and you're still able to interact with your real
         | world environment.
        
           | gfodor wrote:
           | I agree I've been working in and out of VR for the last 8
           | years or so and it was the first thing I saw that made me
           | question the assumption that VR was the only possible
           | solution to this problem.
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | As someone who spends way too much time on video--including
             | meetings I should be in in case something directly relevant
             | to me comes up but mostly can pay partial attention to
             | while I do stuff on another computer--I would mostly hate
             | the idea of wearing a headset. Heck, at in person meetings
             | for better or worse, a lot of people do the same thing.
             | 
             | High-fidelity, lifesize, no stuttering, etc. plus
             | collaborative docs and I'm pretty sure you may have a
             | better experience than VR.
        
               | gfodor wrote:
               | Yeah the headsets are a distraction, the way to think
               | about this is there are three distinct tech tracks:
               | 
               | - full photonic override (HMDs -> passthrough visors
               | (lynx-r is a half step) -> passthrough swim goggles ->
               | contact lenses)
               | 
               | - partial photonic override (HoloLens -> AR glasses ->
               | contact lenses)
               | 
               | - magic windows (google's thing)
               | 
               | They all have trade offs but the first track in
               | particular it is an error to look at current form factors
               | as a fixed condition. They will be changing rapidly
               | insofar as traction and/or investment continues.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | Certainly. Though I'd be inclined to argue that full
               | VR/immersion is mostly of interest in an exploration
               | context (e.g. 3D construction walk through, virtual
               | tourism) or simulation (including gaming)--especially for
               | situations where you can participate from a fixed
               | location.
        
               | gfodor wrote:
               | I think if another tech hits face to face social presence
               | scores then yes things get a lot more interesting. I
               | don't know if google has run a study.
        
               | buu700 wrote:
               | Rather than contact lenses, how plausible would it be to
               | project an image into someone's eyes from a distance?
               | 
               | As in you'd have an external VR unit that's as bulky as
               | needed to handle face tracking, photonic override, etc.
               | without any direct physical contact or uncomfortable
               | accessories. Does that kind of tech sound further or
               | closer than contact lenses, or would it be so different
               | as to be hard to say?
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | There was some pro type contact lens technology in a talk
               | at Hot Chips but nowhere near prime time yet. Saw a
               | thread. Forget if it was here or Twitter.
        
               | gfodor wrote:
               | Yeah I would put that into the same bucket as contact
               | lenses: really hard to imagine tech in terms of
               | execution, but probably possible from first principles.
               | The invariant is basically if code is determining what
               | photons you see, and if it has full governance or partial
               | governance (ie, the real world has the ability to leak in
               | or not.)
        
           | dbbk wrote:
           | Yes! I can't wait for this to go mainstream. Seems like the
           | perfect solution. I love their description of it as a "magic
           | window".
        
         | psychlops wrote:
         | I have a feeling that part of social presence will require
         | absolute privacy among participants. Once we see permanently
         | recorded leaks of these social conversations, there will be a
         | halt of adoption.
        
           | gfodor wrote:
           | Yep this is part of the goals of one of the projects I worked
           | on, Mozilla Hubs: ensuring that there is always a self hosted
           | privacy preserving open source option for this basic use case
           | of VR avatar based communication.
        
         | przeor wrote:
         | Based on your comment, the biggest difference then ( second
         | life ) and now is tokenisation and non fingible stuff
         | monetization at scale, you can check it here
         | https://experty.io/web-3-0-vs-metaverse-similarities-and-dif...
         | to read more
        
         | msoad wrote:
         | The hardware is so behind this kind of application that
         | Facebook's pitch sounds like selling billboard ads on future
         | Mars highways!
        
           | meheleventyone wrote:
           | It's surprisingly not that far behind. We're already close to
           | having commercial headsets with full-body tracking, eye
           | tracking and facial tracking.
           | 
           | Even without those technologies current VR is quite different
           | in terms of social presence to interacting on a flat screen.
           | A lot of body language comes through even just tracking the
           | head and hands.
           | 
           | I think we're quite a bit away from having mass adoption of
           | VR though. But that's more form factor and comfort.
        
           | gfodor wrote:
           | No, there is a study that was done on PC rift hardware that
           | showed it was already competitive with f2f on most measures
           | of social presence except for facial expressions (which makes
           | sense, given the lack of facial tracking.)
           | 
           | The bottleneck for adoption is probably mostly about UX,
           | comfort, norms, marketing, etc. Not raw capabilities.
        
             | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
             | Laughable - that's like saying "this cake has 80% of the
             | required ingredients, we're almost there with the exception
             | of flour and sugar".
             | 
             | The uncanny valley on the raw capabilities of these current
             | products is a grand canyon. Holodeck it ain't.
        
               | rackjack wrote:
               | I wonder how much we need facial expressions for VR
               | communication. You can convey a lot in Source games just
               | by crouching and violently shaking your mouse... plus
               | nobody's trying to blow you up in a work environment
               | (hopefully).
        
               | gfodor wrote:
               | You can also fake it. My app jel.app has avatars that
               | have a lot of facial animation and it's either random or
               | just driven off voice, and conveys a lot imo.
               | 
               | There is a limit and a point where this can make things
               | worse, but if it approximates what a person expects well
               | enough and never conflicts with that expectation it's a
               | good tool.
        
               | gfodor wrote:
               | Not really, I'd imagine if you ran the same trial today
               | with face and eye tracking HMDs you would match f2f
               | social presence scores. Wouldn't surprise me if the study
               | has already been done. You're confusing graphics quality
               | and realism with just the subset of what is needed to hit
               | face to face social presence. That bar is much lower:
               | high resolution, low latency, good tracking. The actual
               | GPU power beyond that doesn't put a ceiling since
               | conveying non verbal communication doesn't require
               | expensive rasterization.
        
               | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
               | It feels like you're just moving goalposts by defining
               | some arbitrary metric of "f2f social presence scores". It
               | doesn't really matter how much any individual test does
               | against these "scores" if your average person walks away
               | feeling "That felt nothing like a face to face meeting
               | I'm used to having with actual, live humans."
        
               | gfodor wrote:
               | You're just arguing at this point. The scores I'm talking
               | about are not arbitrary, there are a few standardized
               | measures used in social presence research to attempt to
               | make apples to apples comparisons between communications
               | tools attempting to compete with f2f. The point is that
               | the scores people give are literally asking users to
               | convey their feeling that the experience met the baseline
               | of face to face, or not, along various dimensions. You
               | sound like you have an axe to grind, and aren't actually
               | looking to understand anything new here.
        
         | charlesju wrote:
         | I agree this is one facet, but other is we now have a trustless
         | ownership protocol (ie. cryto + NFTs) that will lay the
         | foundation for people "caring" about the stuff and status you
         | have in the metaverse.
        
           | roywiggins wrote:
           | What stops me from minting an NFT that says I own anything I
           | want? If platforms are only honoring NFTs minted by other
           | platforms then they might as well just share that information
           | in a database.
        
             | charlesju wrote:
             | Same way you can't just print out a copy of the mona lisa?
             | 
             | People care about status and authenticity.
             | 
             | Imagine a virtual world where
             | 
             | 1. You have the validate you are an avatar you own
             | 
             | 2. You can be anything you want
             | 
             | The virtual world 1 is way more interesting because it's
             | authentic and the people of status will want to use it and
             | people of less status will build towards being higher
             | status.
        
               | abeppu wrote:
               | Who arbitrates which NFTs-based claims are respected
               | versus not? How does one decide authenticity? And once
               | you have an answer to such a question (relying on some
               | preexisting system of ownership in the real world), then
               | why should we care about tokens?
               | 
               | E.g. if someone _does_ try to create an NFT for the Mona
               | Lisa, our ability to refute / accept its authenticity is
               | premised on the knowledge that in the real world, the
               | French Republic itself owns the work. How would we trust
               | that the keys associated with minting the NFT were
               | controlled by the French Republic? Presumably we'd need
               | some public statement of attestation from an official
               | French government body, and perhaps with the concurrence
               | of others, to have confidence that this wasn't a rogue
               | intern at the Ministry of Culture, or a hacker that got
               | control to some official accounts or pages.
               | 
               | But applying this logic to "avatars" seems to be either
               | broken or creepy. Who has the authority to say that you
               | are or aren't you?
        
               | gfodor wrote:
               | The people who decide which NFTs matter are the
               | communities and cultures you participate in, and entities
               | who have sovereignty over you. Which is no different than
               | anything else.
        
               | abeppu wrote:
               | Right but the point the grandparent I was adding to, and
               | also what I understand delecti is saying is roughly: Meta
               | or a similar platform is an "entity who has sovereignty".
               | For users to have a coherent experience in the platform,
               | it may essentially be required that the platform
               | exercises some decision-making power on what NFTs to
               | respect and which not to. Do I get to bring in and use
               | item X just because I say I own it, or not? Once the
               | platform is exercising a choice on how/when to recognize
               | ownership or not, the ownership system is no longer
               | "trustless" and why should we bother with the complexity?
        
               | gfodor wrote:
               | I would agree a centralized authority like Facebook
               | basically "owning" what gets blessed is a world where the
               | promise of these technologies has not been met. The hope
               | is that we can have a more egalitarian outcome where
               | there are a variety of actors who align based on shared
               | interests to agree on what contracts to recognize and
               | confer benefits based on. Of course, one challenge with
               | realizing this can be seen elsewhere in this thread,
               | where people are dismissive of the entire concept (and
               | ironically have boxed it in as a Facebook thing now,
               | effectively ceding the entire territory before the first
               | battle.) It's important that technologists get sped up on
               | what is at stake and the likelihood that correcting a
               | misstep will be hard or impossible for future generations
               | if a singular entity "wins" this emerging space in the
               | next several years. There really won't be another
               | platform turnover to try to correct the error and disrupt
               | the existing players as there has been for the last
               | several computing platform changes.
        
               | abeppu wrote:
               | We're perhaps escaping the reasonable scope for a thread
               | like this, but can you point to something that describes
               | a potential version of "the metaverse" where no such
               | authority exists in any form?
               | 
               | To my layperson's view (this is def not my wheelhouse),
               | either such an authority exists (even if it's a
               | foundation backed by several "actors who align based on
               | shared interests"), in which case we're going to be
               | required to trust it so we may as well drop the overhead
               | of the blockchain, or no such authority exists, and
               | there's a potentially high degree of fragmentation among
               | platforms recognizing different subsets of ownership (or
               | identity, or canonicity of speech or whatever), in which
               | case ... is it a metaverse or just a bunch of distinct
               | rooms?
               | 
               | > There really won't be another platform turnover to try
               | to correct the error and disrupt the existing players as
               | there has been for the last several computing platform
               | changes.
               | 
               | What makes you say that with such apparent confidence?
        
               | TillE wrote:
               | Right, it's just shoving some arbitrary data in a
               | decentralized database. People will still need to get
               | together and agree on which bits of data to care about,
               | and at that point the blockchain is adding very little
               | value besides a cumbersome way to transfer ownership.
        
               | gfodor wrote:
               | The value is that the blockchains (or analogous tech)
               | maximize durability and odds of societal consensus across
               | time and space. For example, I would put higher odds on
               | the Ethereum blockchain still existing and being citable
               | in a century or two than most centralized authorities
               | today. (These may be low odds in absolute terms, but in
               | relative terms I think the Ethereum chain wins.)
        
               | roywiggins wrote:
               | Okay, Ethereum is still around, but all it says is that
               | in 2023 you bought a string of digits that referred to a
               | special hat in Fortnite. But it's 2040 now and the
               | special hat has linkrotted away because Fortnite got
               | taken over by Zuckerberg.
        
               | woodruffw wrote:
               | I can only speak for myself, but I do not feel any
               | particular predilection towards "social consensus" when
               | I'm told that a think has cryptocurrencies mixed into it.
               | If anything, it's a negative signal that tells me that
               | someone has undisclosed financial interests in whatever
               | they're trying to tell me about.
        
               | gfodor wrote:
               | Sure, the argument made by crypto people is that is a
               | transitional condition and in a few decades society at
               | large will in general consider information on blockchains
               | (or their descendants) as authoritative in many
               | situations.
        
               | woodruffw wrote:
               | Sure, I can understand the vision. I guess the more
               | salient "why?" question is the one that still feels
               | lacking to me. Current easy money aside, it's not clear
               | why society as a whole would be willing to cast aside the
               | last 250 years of physical ownership and financial
               | infrastructure in exchange for digital ownership(?) and
               | immutable ledgers with irrecoverable error conditions.
        
               | gfodor wrote:
               | Possibly last man standing phenomenon after a few decades
               | of turmoil unwinding present day nation states.
        
               | Nasrudith wrote:
               | Sounds like the same fallacy as preppers getting ripped
               | off buying Krugerrands at a premium to keep value safe
               | after a complete collapse of all civilization. When it is
               | like putting platforms on the boughs of a tree to stay
               | safe when the trunk is cut and felled. It fundamentally
               | misunderstands the order of dependencies.
        
               | roywiggins wrote:
               | > The virtual world 1 is way more interesting
               | 
               | What use are NFTs in such a world? If it's permissioned
               | _anyway_ , and there's only a few approved vendors, you
               | can do this with a database. Suppose you already
               | developed a Roblox/Fortnite/Minecraft metaverse, why do
               | you want NFTs on top of that?
        
           | tomc1985 wrote:
           | Yes let's crystalize greed and avarice into our brave new
           | virtual meta world thing
           | 
           | How about a virtual world of _no_ ownership? Why must we give
           | the wealthy yet another venue to lord their status over us?
        
             | Nasrudith wrote:
             | Like the answer to all of the juvenile notions of "the
             | rich" - because they are the ones making, running, and
             | maintaining the goddamned servers in question!
             | 
             | NFTs are dumb but so is the concept of no ownership in a
             | way that conflates definitions so.
             | 
             | If it is popular to have say a World Tree in a pool as your
             | spawn point and said map is a popular one you would still
             | have instance ownership even if the map itself is free
             | software. Having your own instance would be found
             | preferrable to most compared to a common flooded one with
             | millions clipping through each other and trolls rampant.
        
               | tomc1985 wrote:
               | > If it is popular to have say a World Tree in a pool as
               | your spawn point and said map is a popular one you would
               | still have instance ownership even if the map itself is
               | free software. Having your own instance would be found
               | preferrable to most compared to a common flooded one with
               | millions clipping through each other and trolls rampant.
               | 
               | I don't really understand how lack of ownership strips
               | the ability to shard instances.
               | 
               | > because they are the ones making, running, and
               | maintaining the goddamned servers in question!
               | 
               | They are, because they are most capable. But do not
               | underestimate that others do so as well, often in a much
               | more just and equitable fashion. (See: The Pirate
               | Bay/private trackers vs Spotify or Youtube)
               | 
               | And watch what you call juvenile, that perspective
               | explains the world so much more clearly than any
               | explanation that the guilty might offer
        
             | gfodor wrote:
             | The ultimate scarcity is human attention and creativity -
             | so in the limit that will always be a thing that is a form
             | of wealth. The ownership of digital assets (NFTs or not) is
             | fundamentally an output of a system where someone chooses
             | to expend creative energy into making the asset, and traded
             | that opportunity cost off based on the expected outcome. A
             | scenario where that work would not be something they could
             | capture value from by enforcement mechanisms of scarcity
             | would lead to some of these efforts not happening. (Not all
             | of course, many people do amazing CC licensed work. But it
             | doesn't pay the bills.)
        
               | tomc1985 wrote:
               | But digital is a realm of infinite copying, and where
               | true ownership of bits means that you can never show them
               | off (like Shkreli and that A Tribe Called Quest album).
               | NFT 'ownership' is an additional layer on top of the data
               | that can easily be stripped away, as the exclusivity only
               | exists in the minds of those gullible enough to actually
               | value it.
               | 
               | I am very tired of watching humans constantly try to
               | impose real-world economic scarcity into a digital land
               | of infinite plenty. Rather than fight the nature of a
               | digital economy, why not embrace it?
        
               | gfodor wrote:
               | People who want to create works that can be infinitely
               | copied, will. People who want to create works that have
               | various kinds of cultural norms imposing scarcity, will.
               | There is no "fight", it's just saying that you'd prefer
               | less options for people to choose how to expend their
               | creative energy. Nobody is stopping a person from turning
               | the knob all the way to "infinite free copies," but the
               | idea here is to make a knob that is granular,
               | multidimensional, and under their control, as opposed to
               | under the control of a few centralized actors.
               | 
               | Besides, NFTs actually embrace your philosophy: allow
               | copies, and shift scarcity elsewhere to things like
               | social status. It is not DRM, obviously. You should be a
               | fan.
        
               | tomc1985 wrote:
               | While they permit infinite copies, the ownership bit
               | strips away potential egalitarianism. Scarcity needs to
               | be stripped and not an option. There shouldn't be a knob
               | that allows one to select 'infinite copies', that should
               | be the default. And ownership should either be collective
               | or none at all.
               | 
               | Permitting ownership enables an unnecessary layer of
               | stratification that humanity is best without, in a rare
               | environment that actually allows for the lack of it.
        
               | Nasrudith wrote:
               | You don't get to decide that. Your prejudices and
               | carefully bonsaie gardened imperatives about how you
               | think the world should work be do not change that fact
               | any more than the tantrums in congresses and parliaments
               | demanding encryption that doesn't work for "bad guys". It
               | is fundamentally about information and its shapes.
        
               | tomc1985 wrote:
               | > You don't get to decide that.
               | 
               | Such is the nature of idealism. It is a shame we allow a
               | world of plenty to artificially lock up value so a few
               | people can feel better than others
               | 
               | Alternatively, why is a piece of data not allowed to just
               | be? You can see this everywhere, even outside the digital
               | world and in the realm of the mind. An idea is never
               | allowed to stand on its own merits, we always have to
               | attach our bullshit culture to it
        
           | delecti wrote:
           | The virtual stuff you "own" in virtual environments are going
           | to be siloed in individual companies' ecosystems. Just like
           | GTA Online is never going to give me any sort of benefit from
           | the fancy sword I have in World of Warcraft, neither is
           | Facebook/Meta going give me any benefit from the couch I have
           | in whatever system Microsoft or Valve puts out. NFTs are
           | never going to materialize into that sort of cross-ecosystem
           | unified ownership because no large company benefits from
           | honoring assets obtained in another company's ecosystem.
        
             | nkingsy wrote:
             | Never say never. A "stuff" import seems like the kind of
             | feature that would have to be copied by other platforms as
             | soon as one does it, but there's a chicken and egg aspect.
             | 
             | I disagree with the whole "value of ownership" thing.
             | Making knock off nfts is trivial, so this relies on people
             | caring enough about provenance to police this and shame
             | people that have knock offs in their virtual environment.
             | 
             | Digital goods can be copied for free. It's the killer
             | feature of digital. No more scarcity!! Any system that
             | fails to embrace this will be outcompeted long term. See
             | the music industry.
        
               | tehbeard wrote:
               | > shame people that have knock offs in their virtual
               | environment
               | 
               | Because the bullying at school for having non-brand
               | clothing or things wasn't enough. You'll need Supreme(TM)
               | nfts, or become a digital pariah?
        
             | charlesju wrote:
             | This is already happening. You're thinking about this in
             | reverse.
             | 
             | The web 1.0 and 2.0 way of thinking if we build the
             | product, then we own the community.
             | 
             | The web 3.0 way of thinking is there are existing
             | communities out there (BAYC, Punks, etc.) that we can
             | enable to use our product and come into our space.
             | 
             | And this is already happening.
        
               | TigeriusKirk wrote:
               | BAYC is light years beyond everything else in the NFT
               | space. The way they've built a community and played up
               | their cool factor to make you want to be a part of it all
               | is impressive.
               | 
               | Their parties this last week in NYC for NFT week pretty
               | much locked them as the model to strive for. I don't know
               | if others can do it, but they've set the standard.
        
               | TillE wrote:
               | > played up their cool factor
               | 
               | C'mon. This is very "rich nerds desperately trying to be
               | cool", it's not an actual thing that normal people will
               | ever care about. We already have status symbols that you
               | can show off in the real world.
        
               | woodruffw wrote:
               | At every cryptocurrency party I've been to, the people
               | (i.e., the normal ones, not the true believers) stop
               | coming when the free drinks and food stop flowing. I
               | wouldn't confuse that with a "cool factor."
        
         | indymike wrote:
         | > Remote communication tools like video conferencing fail to
         | deliver what academics call "social presence
         | 
         | When we have Star Trek's transporters, we can achieve "social
         | presence". Until then, you can have "this is cool". There is a
         | real problem with VR: it requires way more focus and attention
         | that being live, in person. Where VR does shine is shared
         | experiences you can't have in real life. Those shared
         | experiences are really cool, but are not such that people want
         | to have them whenever they want to interact with grandma or Bob
         | in accounting.
         | 
         | > it's all about removing the need for physical co-location to
         | communicate, work, and spend time together with full social
         | presence.
         | 
         | We already have technology that may be "good enough". The issue
         | with VR is that it requires so much cognitive effort to work...
         | so you really are dealing with something that is cool. Cool to
         | the level that it seems magical, but not cool enough to beat
         | the ease we can communicate via other channels. Playing a
         | flight sim with VR? actually great. Trying to have a
         | conversation with my kids via VR? Not so great.
        
           | gfodor wrote:
           | No, you don't need transporters to archive social presence,
           | this is a specific measure that is quantifiable to a large
           | degree via standardized surveys and measurements. Doesn't
           | require transporters, just the ability to deliver the feeling
           | of unmediated communication. VR gets closer than any other
           | tool I know of on this specific measure, though the recent
           | google work on their magic light field window may also be
           | able to compete with face to face.
           | 
           | Note this has nothing to do with photo realism, seeing the
           | physical form of people, or cool immersive environments. It's
           | the feeling of unmediated communication.
           | 
           | I suspect you haven't actually tried hanging out with your
           | kids in VR on a reasonable setup when they are physically far
           | away from you. I'd suggest trying it to get a more concrete
           | view on what is probably going to happen with regards to
           | physical co-locality and it's value prop.
        
         | littlestymaar wrote:
         | I see this conflation happening all the time from metaverse
         | enthusiasts, but the metaverse != VR.
         | 
         | Would a high quality VR version of Zoom/Teams be awesome? Of
         | course it would, it would be freaking amazing! But the
         | "metaverse" ain't that, it's supposed to be a _virtual
         | universe_ (hence the name), where everything happens, including
         | games, watching movies, etc. A gigantic MMORPG, containing
         | every possible kind of online interaction and games. And _this_
         | part is complete bullshit.
         | 
         | Which user story seems the most likely:
         | 
         | - the user open the app, select their contact or group, puts
         | the VR headset on, join the chat room.
         | 
         | - the user puts the VR headset on, login in in "virtual flat",
         | go out, jump in his virtual (flying, as a DLC) car, and go to a
         | virtual bar where your friends are waiting.
         | 
         | Only the second one is worth the "metaverse" name (the first
         | one being just a "virtual chat over the internet"(r)), and even
         | if it could be really fun in the beginning, and could even have
         | a decent success as an MMO, it won't be the mainsteam way of
         | communication.
        
           | gfodor wrote:
           | Frankly there are like 50 working definitions for "metaverse"
           | at this point so it's not really worth the energy of trying
           | to unpack it as a way to ground an argument.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | swman wrote:
       | No idea but buy FB to find out
        
       | throwawayswede wrote:
       | I'm curious if there been any mention of AR/VR in sci-fi or
       | popular culture in general in a positive light? Almost all I can
       | think of is dystopian and does not invoke the positive imagery
       | that Fb seems to be playing at.
       | 
       | Who's their target market?
        
       | laserbeam wrote:
       | Isn't this just a forced rebranding during s time of pr
       | nightmares that has nothing to do with actually building a
       | successful "metaverse"?
        
       | ravenstine wrote:
       | I would not take marketing around things like VR and AR very
       | seriously because _nobody knows_ whether any of them will catch
       | on, and their track record isn 't very good. Oculus, for the most
       | part, is a niche. A lot of people have an Oculus but it's
       | primarily for games, and it hasn't reached the level where
       | _everyone 's gotta have one_.
       | 
       | Only time can tell whether Metaverse has something that Second
       | Life did not. My guess is that it will be considered a joke in 5
       | short years, but I don't actually know. Overall, I think Silicon
       | Valley is overestimating people's willingness to wear headsets
       | and paddles for extended periods of time. Just because 12 year
       | old boys will do it doesn't mean that everyone else wants to.
        
         | snarf21 wrote:
         | Yeah, I think the main use case for VR will be just be porn
         | with connected devices. I do think there is some ability to do
         | a VR-ish remote tele-presence use case. Think Google Street
         | View data capture for walking the Great Wall of China. So real
         | life data used to power a VR world you can explore as you wish.
        
         | bingohbangoh wrote:
         | Oculus devices have this strange effect. The first time I got
         | one, it was a total "wow." Then I put it on the shelf after a
         | week and never touched it again.
         | 
         | Talking around, I don't think I'm the only one.
        
           | nh43de wrote:
           | Same here. When I first experienced HD VR, I knew it had the
           | power to be extremely addictive. However, the plug and play
           | experience isn't there. Yet. Still waiting for the killer
           | app.
        
         | jostmey wrote:
         | Palm pilots didn't become pervasive. So you could have applied
         | that argument to iPhones. It is a matter of if the technology
         | is ready. When it is, it will take off
        
           | ravenstine wrote:
           | That's definitely a factor, but these technologies need to
           | solve real problems for people. Modern phones have a clear
           | advantage over not having one because they are so general
           | purpose. They've effectively out-tricorder'd the tricorders
           | from Star Trek in their usefulness. VR not only pales in
           | comparison to the _holodeck_ , but it isn't clear whether
           | they have any real utility beyond being a toy. Is VR more
           | efficient at relaying information than a standard phone or
           | laptop? That's yet to be seen. Is VR better for socializing
           | than real life or even Discord? Maybe for some people, sure,
           | especially for the immobile or those who can't leave home,
           | but the answer isn't clear for a wide general audience. Does
           | VR help people do their jobs? There are already VR surgical
           | operations, but is Zuckerborg the one who's gonna make it
           | even better?
           | 
           | My best guess is that until we can beam visions directly into
           | our eyes and brains, VR will end up in a similar domain as 3D
           | printers (remember all those articles touting how we would
           | have "santa claus machines" in every home by now?). For the
           | average person, 3D printers don't solve anything despite how
           | many people would consider a 3D printer to be a "cool" thing.
           | Most people won't deny the cool-factor of VR, but that
           | doesn't mean they will use it for any reason. After all,
           | personal computing didn't really take off until it started to
           | solve more problems for the average person other than word
           | processing and playing Oregon Trail. (yes I'm
           | oversimplifying, don't jump down my throat, I was using
           | computers before we had the web)
           | 
           | Again, I don't really know, and nobody really does. Maybe
           | people _will_ want to join the Metaverse. Hopefully
           | Zuckerborg doesn 't _set back_ the adoption of VR by virtue
           | of association with Facebook.
        
           | WhiteNoiz3 wrote:
           | I agree. VR is allows for great game experiences, but today's
           | devices are still cumbersome and we won't see a VR device get
           | mass adoption until we have something that is: - Not much
           | bigger or heavier than a pair of glasses - Lets me work all
           | day on virtual screens to replace my monitor. It would be
           | great if it also connected to my phone to give me more screen
           | real estate there, showed my notifications etc. - has pass
           | through video so I'm not totally unaware of my environment
           | and other people.
           | 
           | Outside of VR, AR glasses need to be all of the above, plus
           | offer something that works better in glasses than on a phone
           | - like indoor wayfinding, using the cameras to allow people
           | to search by image for things they are looking at, virtual
           | assistants that are proactive and context/location aware, or
           | just being able to do things quickly and privately without
           | pointing a phone at something. Or it could just be that the
           | immersive/spatial experience is just better than looking at a
           | small phone window.
           | 
           | Facebook / Meta is working on all these things, so I think
           | the Metaverse talk kinda distracts from some of the more
           | concrete and useful applications and paints an unrealistic
           | picture for how much time people will want to spend in VR
           | worlds.
           | 
           | There are so many challenges and so much interoperability
           | required to make this happen and be useful - I think it will
           | be some time before it becomes a reality. But, the original
           | iPhone was pretty limited initially, and I can remember lots
           | of people saying "Why would I use a smartphone when I can
           | just browse the web and send emails on my computer more
           | easily?". I think it's likely that VR/AR will follow a
           | similar trajectory with it becoming much more powerful and
           | easier to use as time goes on.
        
             | MauranKilom wrote:
             | > or just being able to do things quickly and privately
             | without pointing a phone at something.
             | 
             | From what I've read, you'll more or less have the opposite
             | effect. People assumed Google Glass wearers always had the
             | camera on, or were taking pictures, even if they were
             | unambiguously not. Wearing any gadget with this capability
             | will not be significantly different from pointing a phone
             | at something, I believe.
        
           | coffeefirst wrote:
           | Sure, but it was always clear what the palm pilot was for,
           | even if the early versions were scrappy they had use cases
           | that made sense.
        
           | topkai22 wrote:
           | I've for years argued that the iPhone didn't succeed because
           | of the technology (or at least technology in solutions had
           | been sufficient for a while). It succeeded because it was an
           | iPod a phone- a logical progression of something people were
           | familar with and loved.*
           | 
           | VR suffers from a number of technological problems still (eye
           | strain, etc) but a major issue is how much a departure it
           | feels like from other things we do.
           | 
           | * Apple also utilized the proved wild popularity of iPods to
           | wield tremendous power over its carriers and partners to keep
           | them from interfering with the experience. Other smart phones
           | of the were sold with carrier firmware mods that kept you
           | doing things like transfering photos unless you paid the
           | carrier a dollar per photo.
        
           | nkingsy wrote:
           | I feel like most people got it as soon as they saw the iPhone
           | in action.
           | 
           | A similar "you'll know it when you see it" applies here I
           | think.
           | 
           | For iPhone it was "everyone has a phone, and now that phone
           | can give them turn by turn directions anywhere. Everyone will
           | want this."
           | 
           | For vr, there's no incumbent device to disrupt. Glasses are
           | the obvious choice, but they're not in the same category.
           | 
           | I don't think there's room for more than one digital device
           | that people carry everywhere, which means vr will need to
           | disrupt the phone again.
           | 
           | Carrying that to logical conclusions, apple seems like the
           | best bet to pull this off.
           | 
           | Facebook making this move seems very strange. Building tools
           | for a gold rush that isn't possible yet or even in sight. I'd
           | imagine it's more about recruiting than anything.
        
         | geerlingguy wrote:
         | I'll start thinking more seriously about it when I know anyone
         | who's not hardcore into gaming, or a deep technologist, who
         | owns one.
         | 
         | I can count on one hand the number of people I know with
         | something like an Oculus.
         | 
         | Two of those people don't use it because they couldn't feel
         | comfortable using it, but they like seeing other people try it
         | out the first time, as a novelty.
        
         | tjpnz wrote:
         | >Overall, I think Silicon Valley is overestimating people's
         | willingness to wear headsets and paddles for extended periods
         | of time.
         | 
         | I think the issue is that a significant portion of the
         | population will have issues consuming the content and not
         | ending up with eye strain or getting sick. It was one of the
         | factors which killed off the resurgence of 3D in the 2010s and
         | VR headsets suffer from many of the same problems.
         | 
         | Bumping up the frame rate didn't fix it, nor did all the other
         | tricks cinematographers and cinemas employed to make stereo
         | screenings less jarring.
        
           | mojuba wrote:
           | The two main problems with VR not feeling quite right is the
           | virtual world not reacting to focus and aperture changes in
           | our eyes. The brain gets confused, and that creates this
           | sense of confusion and that something is wrong.
           | 
           | These can be solved some day though by following the eye's
           | aperture and focus and adjusting the "world" with minimal
           | latency.
        
           | ravenstine wrote:
           | To be fair, after motion pictures was initially invented,
           | audiences are legitimately frightened by things that were
           | happening on-screen. Yet here we are today with over 100
           | years of cinematic history and nearly everyone watching some
           | form of entertainment at home.
           | 
           | I have a feeling that future generations will simply know how
           | to mentally process VR in a way that fully grown adults can't
           | easily adapt to.
        
             | Jasper_ wrote:
             | > To be fair, after motion pictures was initially invented,
             | audiences are legitimately frightened by things that were
             | happening on-screen.
             | 
             | For what it's worth, there's no record of that ever
             | happening. There's been no account of this sort of thing,
             | even in newspapers of the era, which at the time tended to
             | exaggerate spectacles with catchy headlines, nor are there
             | any police reports describing panic. As far as we know,
             | people enjoyed the film and sat and watched it just fine.
             | 
             | https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/did-a-silent-film-
             | abou...
        
             | bink wrote:
             | Unless we come up with a way to override the inner ear I
             | can't see future generations being able to mentally process
             | away the sickness that comes with VR motion.
        
           | SavantIdiot wrote:
           | VR goggles make me wanna barf. I get crazy vertigo. So at
           | least some %age of people will actively avoid anything
           | requiring them.
        
       | demeyer1 wrote:
       | I don't think you are off entirely here. The 3D creator community
       | is growing very quickly with new tools, lowering the barrier of
       | entry to 3D design, emerging consistently. That provides the
       | content. Hardware, to your point, is getting better, cheaper and
       | more accessible to more content consumers. The last component, as
       | I have been thinking about it, is then the network that brings
       | users together. As other posters have already mentioned - the
       | user experience is an improvement vs the original Second Life..
       | which may be enough, over time, to become a new inflection point.
       | 
       | I do think there is more hype than substance right now around the
       | metaverse, but I don't have to squint too hard to see a world
       | where this becomes real relatively soon.
        
       | kaffeeringe wrote:
       | The biggest difference is, that it ties together existing, living
       | communities like fortnite, facebook and so on. It ist supposed to
       | connect allthe communities you use instead of just creating a new
       | one. So as long as people use any service that is part of the
       | metaverse, the metaverse diesn't really need a hype of its' own.
       | The metaverse is supposed to become the operating system of the
       | internet owned by Mark Zuckerberg.
        
         | aaron695 wrote:
         | This is the correct answer.
        
       | ed wrote:
       | Don't read much into the product side of meta. Metaverse is just
       | a hedge, so that if Apple shows us how to do VR/AR "right,"
       | Facebook will have $10B worth of pieces on the board to be
       | competitive, allowing them to avoid another iOS platform risk.
       | Owning a platform provides leverage elsewhere too. Apple will be
       | Apple, but maybe Facebook can be Android, next time around. (As a
       | side benefit, it also helps "rally the troops," which is needed
       | given current morale.)
        
         | kooshball wrote:
         | ya obviously it's reasonable that Facebook changed the name of
         | their company for a "hedge"
        
           | symlinkk wrote:
           | Actually it's totally reasonable. They got bad press and
           | rebranded to seem hip and futuristic. It's that simple
        
           | ed wrote:
           | Eh, I don't know. Nothing of value was renamed -- Facebook,
           | Instagram, and WhatsApp are unchanged. And "Meta" is a good
           | name for an umbrella organization, even if they drop their VR
           | ambition entirely.
        
       | yokoprime wrote:
       | The metaverse needs a killer app - something that makes it
       | appealing for a large user-base besides gamers, academics and
       | tech bros. At the moment the metaverse is simply a concept with
       | some very interesting tech demos, but without any broadly
       | appealing use cases.
        
       | cloudking wrote:
       | It's a vision for when VR/AR transitions from being heavy clunky
       | hardware with niche use cases and early adopters, to lightweight
       | powerful hardware with wide use cases and majority adoption.
       | Similar to how mobile phones started out with a small group of
       | adopters, then technologically evolved enabling more use cases,
       | got small enough to fit in our pockets and now everyone has one.
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_life_cycle
       | 
       | The idea that we will work and play in the metaverse is blocked
       | by the hardware right now. If the hardware is amazing (say, a
       | regular looking pair of glasses) and can actually enable an
       | immersive computing experience, that is more productive and
       | better at connecting people, why wouldn't you use it? Regardless
       | of who builds the platforms and experiences.
        
         | cybernautique wrote:
         | I wouldn't use a non-FOSS platform or experience for non-
         | corporate reasons. My employer wants me to use a particular
         | hardware? Fine, but I'm not using my money for it, I won't like
         | it, and I'll break it every chance I get.
         | 
         | The idea that _I_ will work and play in the metaverse is
         | forever and eternally blocked by which particular group of
         | assholes is trying to wrangle me. If it 's a group that allows
         | me the same access they have, which enable me to wrangle the
         | tech and myself? I'll pay triple the premium, just to stick it
         | to Zuck and other proprietary scum.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | perryizgr8 wrote:
           | > I wouldn't use a non-FOSS platform or experience
           | 
           | You are in the extreme minority, if smartphone trends are to
           | be treated as any kind of indication. So your actions likely
           | would not matter to Meta/Apple/Google.
        
             | retrocryptid wrote:
             | you replied to this message using open source code and an
             | open protocol.
        
               | perryizgr8 wrote:
               | I used a locked down phone to do it. I can't even get
               | root on this phone, and this is the more open platform,
               | compared to the only other alternative.
        
               | grey_earthling wrote:
               | _Nothing_ is also an alternative.
               | 
               | It's impressive how comprehensively consumerism has
               | persuaded people that you have to buy _something_.
        
             | rndmind wrote:
             | I'm with him in that. And I am glad I am able to clarify
             | this for you, Android OS is built upon a FOSS project (
             | AOSP ) and that is by and large the most popular OS in the
             | world. There's ton of community projects that prove that
             | millions use and contribute to FOSS mobile software.
             | 
             | Oh and there's no way in hell this corny Horizon Workrooms
             | will ever, ever take off.
             | 
             | To me, Meta is a more nefarious hint at the collection and
             | backroom sale of users' metadata.
        
               | perryizgr8 wrote:
               | Whether meta fails or succeeds is not related to the
               | openness of the solution. People do not care. They will
               | literally pay thousands of dollars for a device they do
               | not own if you show them shiny things.
        
             | cybernautique wrote:
             | Unfortunately, I was born into a world without FOSS phones
             | yet where phones are mandatory. I've therefore unhappily
             | furnished Google with more money than I'd ever have liked
             | to, did my best to scrub the hardware of their taint, and
             | treat it like an adversary.
             | 
             | Thankfully, for now, VR is not mandatory. If it becomes
             | mandatory in the long dusk of my latter years then I will
             | be content as a grumpy old man humbuggering about the kids
             | with their newfangled record players.
             | 
             | And, yes, I am in the extreme minority. It has a
             | negatively, and severely, impacted my social life (on top
             | of being socially ungraceful, I have relatively far less
             | space to ply my social wares). I'm so thoroughly
             | radicalized that this is merely another price I'm happy to
             | pay.
             | 
             | My actions don't matter to them, and I aspire to a day
             | where their actions have a similar impact to me.
        
           | cloudking wrote:
           | I respect your opinion and completely understand where you
           | are coming from, but I think you should also consider the
           | amount of technical effort, organization and money required
           | to build something like an open platform/protocol for the
           | metaverse + all the advanced hardware required. It would be
           | awesome if a group of strangers from the internet were able
           | to band together and build this, but let's face it, they will
           | have no where near the resources and talent a place like
           | Meta, Google, Apple or Microsoft has. They have the top
           | engineers on the planet, hardware pipelines and the resources
           | to actually make these ideas become reality.. or virtual
           | reality? :)
        
             | cybernautique wrote:
             | I absolutely respect the technical challenge of the
             | Metaverse, but also: I'm not really interested in it.
             | 
             | I live a fairly tech-minimal lifestyle already. I have my
             | computer, which is largely a tty machine, and my phone. All
             | of my media is either downloaded music files, pirated
             | lectures, or physical books.
             | 
             | I think of VR/AR, the Metaverse, etc. ... and it fills me
             | with a sort of vertigo. I'm desperately in love with my
             | physical existence, as such. I very much abhor any attempt
             | to make computers _more_ present in my life.
             | 
             | I'm happy to wait 30+ years for a Metaverse that doesn't
             | repulse me. If I were to die without ever having worn a VR
             | headset, I'd be likewise happy.
             | 
             | I'm much more interested in finding ways to meaningfully,
             | socially, connect via my terminal. I've been happy with IRC
             | for the past 5 years and see no reason why I won't be happy
             | in the future.
             | 
             | EDIT: thanks to mosh and termux, my phone is also largely a
             | tty machine.
        
       | whatgoodisaroad wrote:
       | In the most recent episode of the Exponent [1] Ben Thompson and
       | James Allworth make the interesting argument that it's intended
       | to recreate the enterprise-to-consumer transition that PCs made
       | but for VR technology. That is to say that very low price-
       | sensitivity enterprise money will end up funding dramatic
       | technological improvements in VR that can then be more
       | effectively deployed to capture consumers.
       | 
       | [1] https://exponent.fm/episode-196-forecasting-the-metaverse/
        
       | L_226 wrote:
       | Personally I think the "metaverse" will not be a thing until
       | climate change makes going outside impossible or at least
       | extremely uncomfortable for a large percentage of the global
       | population.
       | 
       | Covid did increase teleconferencing software usage (Meet, Zoom
       | etc) - but I think that work-related (i.e. forcible) usages can
       | only go so far. Online education solutions were lacking this time
       | around, but I think next time there might be better options that
       | end up "sticking".
       | 
       | Imagine a holistic lockdown going on for years at a stretch, and
       | your only possible respite is to explore some virtual worlds, or
       | meet others in an MMO style setting.
       | 
       | Something I would personally enjoy is wikipedia converted to a VR
       | "Library of Alexandria" - which you can browse at will, or take
       | guided tours, or attend lectures by subject matter experts, or
       | just chat in general with others who are browsing the same topics
       | as you. Just need to write an engine that converts the wiki graph
       | into some rooms....
       | 
       | EDIT: this is not bad: https://wikiverse.io/
        
         | ph4 wrote:
         | Man if we ever get to this point I'll just kill myself.
        
       | HWR_14 wrote:
       | Second Life didn't have the resources of a (approx) trillion-
       | dollar company to pour into a solution by a CEO convinced it's
       | the future. That can fix a lot of problems and force a lot of
       | adoption.
        
         | psyc wrote:
         | A company that already makes the best selling VR hardware by a
         | healthy margin.
        
       | junon wrote:
       | Second Life required you were at least 18 at one point. It was
       | meant more for social gatherings and meeting spots and I think
       | (though I'm not 100%) that they shifted toward "virtual" office
       | spaces with a focus on community building and digital trade using
       | real-life currency.
       | 
       | The metaverse, as I understand it, is just Facebook Games but in
       | VR, for kids and bored adults.
       | 
       | I think the outcome will be the same, though. I can't imagine how
       | anyone at Facebook thought this idea would work.
        
         | BoorishBears wrote:
         | I'm shocked people are taking "Meta" at face value.
         | 
         | To me it's a way to signal to outsiders that Facebook is still
         | cool and hip. That's it.
         | 
         | Now when recruiting they can play the Meta-not-Facebook angle.
         | 
         | Now if they can pad earnings calls with the amazing success the
         | metaverse is seeing (so what if it's losing us money, that's
         | the future!)
         | 
         | -
         | 
         | It's like an inverse Alphabet. Where Alphabet silently serves
         | as an umbrella for moonshots, Meta is a moonshot that's an
         | umbrella for boring old Facebook
        
           | cm2012 wrote:
           | They are spending insanely on r and d on this compared to
           | companies their size. 10b a year.
        
             | BoorishBears wrote:
             | Their market cap has risen over 70B since the announcement,
             | so I think they'll be ok
             | 
             | (Yes I know market cap != war chest, but expenditure on
             | Meta is nothing compared to the "soft power" it provides
             | FB)
        
             | manquer wrote:
             | honestly I am not sure how actually are they spending that
             | kind of money.
             | 
             | I dont see a ton of fb recruiters hiring for VR skills, I
             | dont see a lot of training/certifications /open source
             | libraries /platform Sdks for other devs etc that feels like
             | _$10B a year_ kind of budgets are behind VR /AR.
             | 
             | That's a lot of money, Hard space companies like SpaceX or
             | Blue Origin which have big hardware expenses spend only 1-2
             | billon/year and have thousands or tens of thousands of
             | staff working and their progress is visible .
             | 
             | Does FB have 20,000 + engineers working on metaverse? even
             | if so, doing what exactly ?
        
               | retrocryptid wrote:
               | you're looking in the wrong place. i have reality labs
               | recruiters calling me frequently and my linked in feed is
               | a never ending cascade of sponsored posts about how
               | working ar FB^H^HMMVRS is so much fun.
        
               | manquer wrote:
               | > FB^H^HMMVRS No sure what this meant
               | 
               | I am sure FB is recruiting, my point is not that reality
               | labs is fake , I am sure it is real and they do recruit,
               | it just that I don't see recruitment that would signal
               | that large a number of investment.
               | 
               | I wasn't saying from a personal engineer anecdotal
               | experience, but as some one working in recruitment tech,
               | I keep an eye on industry patterns.
               | 
               | I could be wrong in my impression but I think they are
               | just doing bit of creative accounting on existing
               | expenses to show high spends on their flagship project.
        
           | nowherebeen wrote:
           | > Meta-not-Facebook
           | 
           | I am going to start using this term to satisfy people that
           | argue its not called Facebook anymore.
        
             | jackTheMan wrote:
             | Meta-pk-Facebook = Meta-previously-known-Facebook
             | 
             | would be better, because in case of the Meta-not-Facebook,
             | 'not' might be strong enough to remember that way.
        
             | brundolf wrote:
             | "The artist formerly known as Facebook"
        
               | dreamcompiler wrote:
               | s/artist/criminals/
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | aerosmile wrote:
           | Nailed it.
        
         | retrocryptid wrote:
         | fwiw, SL launched the "teen grid" in 2005. later they merged it
         | in with the main grid and disallowed youngsters from entering
         | "adult themed regions"
        
         | mherrmann wrote:
         | > The metaverse, as I understand it, is just Facebook Games but
         | in VR, for kids and bored adults.
         | 
         | I don't think that's true. Search for "Horizon Workrooms" to
         | see an (IMHO) significant product they have in the
         | collaboration tool space.
        
           | legostormtroopr wrote:
           | That's the most dystopian thing about this - the best, most
           | aspiration use for VR they can show case is... meetings, but
           | in VR.
        
             | mherrmann wrote:
             | What's wrong with that? That meetings are necessary in
             | modern working life is a fact. So might as well have
             | products and services that make them better on some axes.
             | And it doesn't necessarily have to be just office meetings
             | either. University lectures or tutorials this way also
             | sound pretty cool to me. You could have a student from
             | Taiwan, the US, Germany and Sweden sit in the same
             | classroom and interact, without having to travel thousands
             | of miles. I think that's very cool.
        
               | gsich wrote:
               | So, voicechat?
        
               | manquer wrote:
               | The point is not that meetings are not a good
               | application, there really doesn't seem to be a lot of
               | useful productivity stuff beyond that.[1]
               | 
               | Also in person meetings are useful over a video call
               | largely because there is lot of information from body
               | language you can pick up being up close to someone. There
               | is a lot of information on how someone breathes, moves or
               | posture etc.
               | 
               | AFAIK there is no good VR solution that is able to solve
               | that today. Even if there was enough cameras on you to
               | pick up that level of detail , the bandwidth on transist
               | across continents today or in next 15 years is not going
               | to be available even for it make sense for businesses let
               | alone regular users. VR as a replacement for zoom sure is
               | interesting gimmick , but as replacement or equivalent to
               | sitting next to each other we are atleast 2 decades away
               | .
               | 
               | [1] real estate is only successful business application I
               | have seen in the VR space
               | 
               | I keep reading about this multi billion army contract , I
               | am sure the money is real, but whether it is actually
               | effective remains to be proven.
        
               | paulryanrogers wrote:
               | > Also in person meetings are useful over a video call
               | largely because there is lot of information from body
               | language you can pick up being up close to someone. There
               | is a lot of information on how someone breathes, moves or
               | posture etc.
               | 
               | I keep hearing this but don't feel I've lost anything
               | working fully remote for the last five years. Are there
               | experiments proving that a call with high quality audio
               | is so much worse in business than a physical meeting?
               | 
               | Perhaps I'm just not perceptive enough to pick up on all
               | the nonverbal cues. Though even if so I think calls are
               | more equitable and accessible.
        
               | Jasper_ wrote:
               | The last in-person meeting I attended, I drew on a
               | whiteboard, made exaggerated gestures with my hands to
               | point to different parts of it, and established spatial
               | metaphors by establishing one side of the room as the
               | backend, and the other as the front-end.
               | 
               | When people asked me questions, they walked up to the
               | whiteboard and pointed directly, and then scribbled on it
               | to clarify. I felt a lot more connected when I was able
               | to make direct eye contact and get backchannelling.
               | Perhaps it was my perception, but I felt like it was a
               | lot better for communication as a whole.
               | 
               | I'm sure you can replicate all of this stuff in Zoom or
               | VR, but it sure is a lot more clunky and annoying.
        
               | paulryanrogers wrote:
               | "get backchannelling"
               | 
               | Curious what this refers to?
        
               | qdot76367 wrote:
               | Not sure what axis Horizons makes meetings better on
               | though.
        
         | ilaksh wrote:
         | You used the lowercase metaverse. THAT metaverse is a broad
         | concept definitely not specific to Facebook. It encompasses
         | things like Second Life and Meta's attempts, but the more pure
         | connotation is something like the world wide web but with
         | virtual spaces and avatars. Not controlled by any particular
         | company.
         | 
         | The strange thing to me is that web browsers do support VR, and
         | they used to even support navigating seamlessly between VR
         | pages without exiting VR mode. But for some reason the seamless
         | navigation was removed. And browsers are almost never even
         | mentioned in these discussions of the Metaverse, even by people
         | who seem concerned that some proprietary platform will take
         | over.
         | 
         | This type of utter failure to understand or recognize the
         | significance of various technologies even by groups like HN,
         | makes me seriously support the idea of AI taking over control
         | of the planet.
        
       | jordanpg wrote:
       | I've very little exposure to this tech but my instinct tells me
       | that it is no more than a curiosity for tech folks so long as you
       | are required to wear a large, uncomfortable, expensive thing on
       | your head.
       | 
       | I don't know what the next evolution of this is, but if it
       | involves "wearing" something, it needs to have characteristics
       | like being featherweight, as trivial to take on and off as a pair
       | of glasses, 0 friction to operate, and be extremely robust and
       | durable. IIRC, Google Glass, for example, had none of these
       | properties (and it wasn't VR/AR in any sense).
       | 
       | Are we anywhere near this? How far off is hardware that's
       | _really_ mass-market ready?
        
       | fareesh wrote:
       | Serious people don't need to feel like they are in the same room
       | as others to get work done
        
       | abvdasker wrote:
       | Second Life allowed for a lot of the NSFW content and
       | interactions that people tend to enjoy both in entertainment and
       | in real life (this is also true of VRChat to some extent).
       | Metaverse will be a sanitized, sterile project for children.
       | Fundamentally the people like Zuckerberg responsible for its
       | execution do not understand what people want, which is why
       | Metaverse has no chance of success.
        
         | long_time_gone wrote:
         | > Fundamentally the people like Zuckerberg responsible for its
         | execution do not understand what people want
         | 
         | I agree with the broader point, but Facebook owns three of the
         | most popular apps in the world. They have at least some idea of
         | what people want.
        
           | tremon wrote:
           | Do they really? Only one of those they created, the others
           | they bought after they'd already become the most popular
           | apps. You don't have to have any ideas to just measure what's
           | already popular and buy it.
        
             | wy35 wrote:
             | Instagram acquisition price (2012): $1B Instagram projected
             | ad revenue (2021, projected): $18B
             | 
             | They do more than just buy apps. We shouldn't underestimate
             | Meta -- they can do to Oculus what they did to Instagram.
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | long_time_gone wrote:
             | They built Facebook and Messenger from zero users to
             | billions. Instagram had 50 million users when Facebook
             | bought them. WhatsApp had around 300 million. Now they each
             | have over a billion.
        
         | ilaksh wrote:
         | I have owned land in Second Life continuously for probably ten
         | years or more. Haven't been on recently but very familiar with
         | what you are talking about. NSFW is a big part of it but by no
         | means the only part.
         | 
         | Meta has a very dominant position in VR headsets. All they have
         | to do is add add a "teleport friend" button to message
         | notifications inside of Oculus Quest 2 when you are in the
         | default home environment, allow some movement in the space, and
         | they will have by far the most popular version of the
         | Metaverse. If they want to start doing brand deals, place some
         | store portals near the door.
         | 
         | You really think that won't start taking away a ton of business
         | from VR Chat and the rest? They will win by default. They
         | completely control the experience. From the moment you turn the
         | headset on, you are already IN their Metaverse. It's just a
         | shit Metaverse with no features. But regardless of what Zuck
         | understands, there are too many highly paid geniuses around him
         | absorbing some of his billions to not take advantage of the
         | situation.
        
           | herbst wrote:
           | I honestly don't know a single person with a oculus. Many
           | with the PlayStation or the HTC one.
           | 
           | I also barely know people that use Facebook. And many that
           | are not willing to create a FB account for whatever reason.
           | 
           | It's just anectotal. But I don't see how this walled garden
           | will find any widespread use around here. Just as I know no
           | one who uses Apples walled garden chats, simply because apple
           | never reached a critical mass and people don't like to be
           | locked out of their friends.
        
             | satyrnein wrote:
             | I think you may _already_ be living in an alternate
             | reality!
        
             | ilaksh wrote:
             | Lol. Look up some statistics. Quest has a 75% market share,
             | Facebook has more than 2 billion users, and there are more
             | than 1 billion iPhone users.
        
             | skinnymuch wrote:
             | Yeah. Like sibling comment said. You are already in your
             | own wild bubble. You're taking your anecdotes and having
             | them explain why people are or are not doing things in
             | general. When in reality things like Facebook, Oculus,
             | iMessage/FaceTime are all popular.
        
               | tremon wrote:
               | I must be living in the same alternate reality as the GP,
               | then. Facebook and Whatsapp are commonly used around
               | here, but the others hardly exist at all.
        
               | skinnymuch wrote:
               | You named Facebook and WhatsApp as being popular. Of
               | course everything popular won't be popular in your
               | anecdotal experience. The difference is the OP dismissed
               | a bunch of popular stuff without exception.
               | 
               | It is interesting you know many people with Playstation
               | and HTC VR but none with Oculus.
        
         | qdot76367 wrote:
         | Guard rails never work completely, even in kids worlds (i.e.
         | the "babboing 4 furni" trend in habbo hotel).
         | 
         | NSFW content will always find a way.
         | 
         | Always.
        
           | PeterisP wrote:
           | What is "babboing 4 furni"? Search seems to find only this
           | very comment for these terms.
        
       | parkaboy wrote:
       | For the most part, I think it's mostly (but not all!) the same,
       | where the hype and excitement is from a new generation of VCs and
       | founders who didn't experience the VRML/second-life era.
       | 
       | Of course, not only is the technology to facilitate a metaverse
       | is better, but I think society has also evolved a lot since then.
       | Remote work/life is now much more of a mainstream/accepted thing
       | than it used to be. Internet is now a mainstream full-blown
       | appendage via our smartphones.
       | 
       | I'm much more optimistic a metaverse (in a Platonic ideal sense)
       | could catch on this time around, BUT I'm much less sure that what
       | will be hawked to us is the "right thing" (whatever that means).
       | 
       | I do think this article posted on HN last week is definitely onto
       | something that Meta and other attempts may not be thinking about.
       | https://debugger.medium.com/the-metaverse-is-already-here-it...
        
       | Stevvo wrote:
       | Zuckerberg's Metaverse: Lessons from Second Life
       | 
       | https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-59180273
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | jollybean wrote:
       | When the tech is as easy as putting on a pair of glasses and not
       | that much more, and it's solid, fast, reliable, cheap - then we
       | will have that revolution.
       | 
       | But it's probably 20 years and a few 'Magic Leaps' away from
       | reality, 'pun intended'.
       | 
       | It may happen gradually as techines buy the big googles, they
       | then get smaller like Ski Googles, more people get on board, then
       | they'll just be glasses and we'll look at VR headsets like horse
       | and carriage.
       | 
       | I suspect we will really start to face social problems as people
       | in that era will not be exposed to humans that lived before the
       | internet and were 'normal' and the hyper connectivity we did not
       | evolve for will throw us all for uge loops.
        
       | mupuff1234 wrote:
       | I kinda view TikTok, Instagram, etc as part of a metaverse
       | already - it's all basically fake online personas in one way or
       | another.
        
         | TheOtherHobbes wrote:
         | Underrated point - social media turns everyone into their own
         | exaggerated avatar.
        
       | przeor wrote:
       | relevant Web3 vs Metaverse article:
       | https://experty.io/web-3-0-vs-metaverse-similarities-and-dif...
        
       | theptip wrote:
       | The Metaverse is a Second Life that everybody wants to hang out
       | in, not just some subset of gamers.
       | 
       | (Steel-manning the concept of course).
        
       | retrocryptid wrote:
       | towards the end of SL's heyday, we were trying to make an open
       | metaverse with OGPX, MMOX and VWRAP. alas, the company ran out of
       | money before we could complete the work (and IBM kind of stiffed
       | us on some IP issues.)
       | 
       | it's interesting to note that cory and babbage and beez and a
       | raft of other lindens wound up at FB between 2009 and 2011. i
       | went to pitch the idea of continuing the "open metaverse" and try
       | to get FB to fund the VWRAP work, but no dice. 2010-2011 was way
       | too early for virtual worlds or augmented worlds to be on the FB
       | radar.
       | 
       | at linden, at the end, we wanted to build a shared world which
       | could be fed with real or made up geo data and with a common
       | protocol different organizations could use to cause a consistent,
       | shared experience be delivered to end users.
       | 
       | the key here is "different organizations." by the end we were
       | trying to build an open protocol linden could be a key player in,
       | but not own it as a walled garden.
       | 
       | i think the prime difference here is FB wants to own the venue
       | (walled garden) and sell different data layers to different
       | communities.
       | 
       | i would be very surprised if they weren't working on an AR
       | experience where advertisers could buy a data overlay identifying
       | most likely consumers for specific services. so you're minding
       | your business at the mall and someone walks up and says "excuse
       | me ma'am, i notice you bought floral print shirt last week. we're
       | having a sale on slacks that would complement that shirt and your
       | colour pallette."
       | 
       | not to mention strossian "cop space" or a raft of less intrusive
       | layers for different communities.
       | 
       | so... "own the venue" and "sell distinct value-added layers to
       | different parties"
        
       | chrisco255 wrote:
       | Second Life was limited in many ways, as far as gameplay goes.
       | Ultimately it failed because it was boring, in my opinion. More
       | modern examples of games that approach this concept are Minecraft
       | or Roblox (public company valued at $45B). Roblox in particular
       | is interesting as it created a platform for others to make game
       | experiences and re-sell them, and it's been very successful.
       | Minecraft, too, has had a lot of staying power and has an active
       | community.
       | 
       | The problem with Roblox, is that it's geared for kids primarily,
       | it's centralized and it also has I believe a 30% fee. You have
       | the same issues as you have with the mobile app stores: an
       | excessive take rate and risk of being deplatformed at any time
       | (like the early Facebook and Twitter apps). You don't really have
       | ownership. But it does underscore the idea that if you create the
       | right environment for shared gaming experiences and creativity it
       | can be very interesting and entertaining.
       | 
       | The crypto metaverse is attempting to use digital property rights
       | represented as NFTs to facilitate permissionless value creation
       | and exchange. Just as real world property rights give owners the
       | stability and framework with which to build long-term
       | investments, understanding they can take risks and potentially
       | reap rewards for those risks, the hope is that digital property
       | rights will do the same.
       | 
       | The NFT space is very interesting and the gaming sector in crypto
       | is evolving pretty rapidly. Some interesting attempts I see at
       | creating these experiences are Sandbox
       | (https://www.sandbox.game/en/), Decentraland
       | (https://decentraland.org/), and Treeverse
       | (https://www.treeverse.net/).
       | 
       | I think it's still super early days for this stuff. It's likely
       | that a lot of the current attempts will fail, but I believe this
       | concept is going through its 90s dot com phase, and we'll get a
       | few gems out of this movement that stand the test of time.
        
         | Animats wrote:
         | _Ultimately it failed because it was boring, in my opinion._
         | 
         | This, in fact, the real problem. Second Life really is a
         | virtual world, not a game. You log in, and you're somewhere in
         | a virtual world the size of Greater London. Now what? The
         | virtual world itself is completely indifferent to you. You can
         | do nothing, if you choose, and nothing will happen. You will
         | not be attacked by monsters. You will not be destroyed by a
         | shrinking vortex. You can go to an area that's not busy and sit
         | or stand for as long as you want to stay logged in. A car might
         | drive by. The sun will rise and set. Not much else will happen.
         | 
         | You can travel around and look at stuff. You can talk to
         | people. There are games to play if you can find them. You can
         | build stuff. You can sell stuff. But you have to find things to
         | do. There are guides and search tools, but you have to use
         | them. It's a "pull" system like the web, not a "push" system
         | like Facebook.
         | 
         | This totally throws a sizable fraction of new users, mostly
         | those who want a pre-structured entertainment experience. It's
         | great for the fraction of the population that likes to build
         | something from nothing. That small fraction.
         | 
         | The second part of "boring" is that Second Life is really
         | sluggish. This is a fixable problem, stemming from legacy code
         | from the era of OpenGL and single-CPU desktops.
         | 
         | Nobody has really looked hard enough at metaverse client theory
         | yet. You have many of the problems of an MMO client, in that
         | you have to present a real-time 3D environment. And you have
         | many of the problems of a web browser, in that the network
         | throws un-optimized stuff at you and you have to deal with it.
         | The big game engines, UE5 and Unity, don't address that latter
         | problem.
         | 
         | All this looks quite fixable, if you target a gamer-level GPU
         | (even one from 5 years ago), a few CPUs, an SSD disk for
         | caching, and over 100mb/s networking. This is what the average
         | Steam user has. We ought to be able to get up to GTA V level
         | visual quality and frame rate. Second Life has content that
         | good.
         | 
         | A third problem with Second Life is that the social features
         | are terrible. The group message system has been losing messages
         | for a year due to a scaling problem. (It was designed so that
         | you could talk to people in your party, not broadcast to your
         | store's customer base.) The voice system, outsourced to Vivox,
         | is flaky. There's two decades of technical debt and not much
         | will or money to fix it.
         | 
         | Mainstream metaverse adoption may be a problem in the era of
         | the $1000 phone and the $200 laptop. What we're seeing right
         | now are new low-end virtual worlds that look like games from 15
         | years ago. Many run inside a browser. This may be why few
         | people actually spend time in Decentraland. The VR headgear
         | people really don't have much more compute power than a phone.
         | Beat Saber, fine. Breakroom, OK. Big virtual world, not so
         | much.
         | 
         | On line right now:
         | 
         | - Roblox: 1,446,121 users.
         | 
         | - Second Life: 35,008 users.
         | 
         | - VRchat: 29,072 users.
         | 
         | - Decentraland: 604 users.
         | 
         | - Facebook Horizon: they're not saying.
        
       | rswail wrote:
       | I have a friend that just got an Oculus, she is early 40s, found
       | out about it via online zoom yoga classes and now uses it for
       | exercise, as well as gaming, especially gaming with friends and
       | even actually meeting because it is more comfortable than just
       | the 2D nature of zoom.
       | 
       | So I can see it growing. I think AR has a better chance than full
       | VR to be the game changing technology longer term, especially
       | considering things like AR Facetime and equivalent.
        
       | ve55 wrote:
       | We have better technology (and thus immersion) now. It's a simple
       | answer, but I think largely sufficient enough to explain why
       | things may be quite different now.
       | 
       | The immersiveness that can be attained via modern high-end VR
       | systems is simply not comparable to what we had a decade ago; it
       | enables many more use cases and paradigms that wouldn't have felt
       | usable, interesting, fun, or sometimes even particularly social
       | in the past. To me at least, VR/AR seem like a pretty large
       | medium shift, and I really expect them to stick around and become
       | a large part of society.
        
       | rjakobsson wrote:
       | XR is the unavoidable future, whether we want it or not. It is
       | mind blowing to be able to dance with life-sized 3D models.
       | Imagine when we cannot tell the difference between what's in the
       | headset and what isn't. Not too far away.
        
         | martin-adams wrote:
         | I personally believe that the gap to a life-like virtual
         | experience will be closed with the use of neural networks
         | generating the experience. I also believe that's a long way
         | off.
         | 
         | Reminds me a bit of 'photorealistic cg'. The gap between close
         | and indistinguishable has an exponential curve of effort
         | required. I remember when Final Fantasy the Spirits Within was
         | released in 2001[1], and it was said to be extremely
         | photorealistic. It was good for it's time, but you wouldn't
         | think it was anywhere close to believable by today's standard.
         | That was 20 years ago and still I don't think I've seen a full
         | CG movie that I thought was real.
         | 
         | So my take is that, without the help of AI filling in the
         | exponential curve in ways we've not yet seen, it's longer than
         | we think.
         | 
         | [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaI7ZPA9I1c
        
       | Waterluvian wrote:
       | It's a way for Zuckerberg to learn firsthand just how much luck
       | was involved in his success.
        
         | juancampa wrote:
         | It's not like he invented the concept. They are trying to take
         | over the term though
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | nowherebeen wrote:
           | Its a powerplay. If he succeeds, he can solidify himself as a
           | product genius, but in reality its just his money at play.
           | Its easier to use money to take over something than to use
           | money to invent something new.
        
             | manquer wrote:
             | How is that different from FB 1.0 or apple under jobs for
             | that matter ?.
             | 
             | Money is always needed, but money alone is not enough.
             | Every funded startup has some money, many have raised a ton
             | of money only to fail badly.
             | 
             | Also it is not his money i.e. he is not selling/leveraging
             | his FB stock to invest personally. FB is investing
             | shareholder money of which he only owns 16.7% .
        
               | nowherebeen wrote:
               | > FB 1.0 or apple under jobs
               | 
               | Two very different companies and scenarios. Jobs as
               | famous for cutting down >10 products product offerings
               | down to 1-2 to refocus the company. His skillset was very
               | much product strategy. He used money mostly for marketing
               | and design. Two things Apple is very much well known for.
               | 
               | Facebook is known for copy, acquire, kill. They offer
               | tons of money to try to acquire competitors. If they say
               | no, then they hire tons to engineers to clone your
               | product, then they kill your product.
               | 
               | Money is required by both, but arguably how both
               | companies spend money is vastly different. Facebook very
               | much uses money as a powerplay than Apple under Jobs.
               | 
               | > Money is always needed, but money alone is not enough.
               | Every funded startup has some money, many have raised a
               | ton of money only to fail badly.
               | 
               | This is such a generalized statement. It's not even worth
               | commenting. Water is wet and the sky is blue.
               | 
               | > FB is investing shareholder money of which he only owns
               | 16.7%
               | 
               | No. Its company assets. Although he owns 16.7% equity, he
               | has >50% of the voting power. Meaning he has absolute
               | authority to dictate how that money is spent. The other
               | 80% can only sell their equity and this doesn't mean they
               | get to take away 80% of the company assets.
        
               | manquer wrote:
               | Control doesn't make it his money. His money is only
               | small fraction of the money being spent.
               | 
               | You made two statements that he is spending _his_ money
               | and spending money makes it not an achievement if it
               | successful.
               | 
               | Neither of it is true , bootstrapping your way to success
               | may make it even more impressive achievement, but success
               | with or without money is difficult achievement that
               | shouldn't be belittled.
        
               | nowherebeen wrote:
               | > he is spending his money
               | 
               | Say I have >50% control:
               | 
               | Can I make it a dynastic company and ensuring my kids
               | gain control of the company? Yes.
               | 
               | Who can stop me? No one.
               | 
               | Can I dilute everyone else's shares and issues dividends
               | when I want? Yes.
               | 
               | Can I issue dividends only to a certain class of shares
               | ensuring those shares which I own a super majority get
               | paid? Yes.
               | 
               | Can I fire the board when I want? Yes.
               | 
               | I mean sure. Its not _his_ money, but its his _company_.
               | Through and through.
               | 
               | > His money is only small fraction of the money being
               | spent.
               | 
               | Company assets is not equity. I am not sure you fully
               | understand how equity works.
               | 
               | > spending money makes it not an achievement if it
               | successful.
               | 
               | No. Depends on how you spend it. Again, read my last
               | comment.
        
       | DigitallyFidget wrote:
       | I think this "metaverse" concept is going to turn into yet
       | another VRChat clone and flop. Sansar is a great example, made by
       | Linden Lab. The problem I see is that it fails to have a demand
       | for it to exist. There will not be an emergent userbase that will
       | flock to it. There's already alternatives. VRChat, NeosVR,
       | Sansar, and others I'm not even aware of. Anyone with VR already
       | knows of VRChat, or isn't the type to care or be interested. So
       | my question is this: How is it going to be an effective VRChat
       | killer? How is it going to make people switch from a massively
       | established community and virtual world that's known and enjoyed
       | by so many people? How is it going to compete as a (probably) VR-
       | Only against a platform (VRChat) that allows both pancake (flat
       | monitor) and VR modes?
       | 
       | I feel like the concept is pure hype with a trivial amount of
       | userbase interest (at best). They're late to the party. I don't
       | see it as anything except a failure in waiting. Secondlife is
       | still holding up to this day, since its creation in 2003. Try and
       | figure out why SecondLife is still around and you may see why I
       | see no future for this "metaverse". The only way to bring users
       | is to have users and content, and the only way to bring content
       | is to have users, and they don't have the users. I don't know a
       | single person who is looking forward to it. Of all the social
       | chat groups I am in, it's come up in only one, and the
       | overwhelming response was just pure negativity about it sounding
       | dumb, being a waste of money, and a failure in the making.
        
       | Shank wrote:
       | Conceptually speaking, the difference with AR/VR is that you can
       | have a truly immersive experience, which really does give you
       | more possibilities than just Second Life, which was always just a
       | 3D game world on a 2D screen. The pitch from Meta and with AR/VR
       | is that with the ability to use 3D space, you can actually turn
       | Second Life-style virtual worlds into something useful with
       | actual tangible benefits. For example, VR/AR sense-of-presence
       | totally outclasses video calls, if the intent is to feel like
       | you're really in a room with someone. VRChat is already one of
       | the most popular VR apps for a reason.
       | 
       | Long term, I think that you have to look at it like this: most
       | desktop computing is very very 2D centric and touch centric. If
       | you want to, e.g., buy a product on Amazon, you're dealing with
       | photos and imagery of a product, and reviews. But if you had a
       | "Metaverse equivalent" you could view a 3D model, see it in
       | action, and physically size compare it to other objects in your
       | house much easier than manually checking dimensions.
       | 
       | Obviously the applications and benefits aren't as clear cut right
       | now. I'm not sure that the windowed operating systems we have
       | today would have been the obvious way that computers would be
       | used if it weren't for constant iteration on keyboard centric UI
       | and experimentation over many years. That same innovation trend
       | hasn't happened with AR/VR, and "the metaverse" that people talk
       | about now will likely be totally different 20 years after it
       | becomes a thing, post-iteration and innovation.
        
         | dudul wrote:
         | I understand that you point is that it would be such a new
         | paradigm that it's hard to imagine applications. That being
         | said, it is funny that the only 2 use cases you mentioned are
         | 1) a way to see people in person less frequently and 2) a way
         | to buy more stuff.
        
         | hakfoo wrote:
         | To me, the problem is finding situations where immersiveness
         | actually adds value.
         | 
         | I think for a lot of social interactions, it doesn't, or it
         | offers rapidly diminishing value.
         | 
         | This conversation would not be meaningfully better as a
         | virtual/augmented reality 3D live chat.
         | 
         | The Google Hangouts (or whatever it's called this week)
         | meetings with my team at work would not be better either.
         | 
         | I'm not even sure it would beat playing a pen-and-paper RPG
         | with friends over Discord and Roll20.
         | 
         | Now, there's two ways this could end up panning out:
         | 
         | 1) The "metaverse" ends up sticking to the scenarios where
         | immersive experiences add value. I'd expect this would be
         | mostly gaming, media consumption, and some specific built-for-
         | the-platform educational products.
         | 
         | 2) We figure out new paradigms that make it worthwhile to
         | replace current collaboration or communications tools.
         | 
         | What confuses me on point 2 is that I think we're going to have
         | to basically invent new paradigms for "window management". The
         | thing I'm picturing is doing a PowerPoint presentation in VR.
         | We'd have people jostling for the best view, and whatever
         | "immersive" metaphor for presenting is likely to be clunkier
         | than a classic Zoom call where the slides are just walked
         | through on one big window.
         | 
         | I'm not sure the 3D shopping model will come to meaningful
         | fruition. We have plenty of retailers who can't even get text
         | descriptions right, especially when it comes to huge
         | catalogues. Are they really going to spend bazillions of
         | dollars building accurate models, making sure the sizes track
         | properly, etc?
        
           | kibwen wrote:
           | Note that Amazon already supports product listings with
           | interactive 360 degree product visualizations. It's only a
           | small step from there to full 3D modeled product renderings.
           | That said, I can't say I would find it especially compelling
           | to peruse a 3D model in VR as opposed to perusing it on a
           | normal screen. Either way it just involves rotating our
           | perspective around the rendering and observing it via the 2D
           | planes of our eyes. I can imagine some small utility if I
           | could accurately measure the dimensions of the product at
           | arbitrary angles in VR, as a sort of freeform replacement for
           | schematic diagrams, but that requires trust that the product
           | listers will actually get the scale correct, and it would not
           | be an overwhelmingly common use case.
        
             | goopthink wrote:
             | From experience in DTC retail, this is more of an AR (not
             | VR) benefit. I _think_ (because I can't remember the exact
             | examples) that Amazon, IKEA, and a few others already do a
             | "See it in your room!" feature. With smartphones with LiDAR
             | /equivalent scanning this becomes really easy. Other
             | retailers like H&M already use digital human models and
             | clothes so it's a short leap there as well.
        
           | swman wrote:
           | You don't need to spend billions. Generating 3d models from
           | stitching images together is possible and with some
           | automation and focused products it will become much easier
        
           | notsureaboutpg wrote:
           | I think that immersiveness would be great for programming.
           | 
           | Stacking windows with a z axis may give you a sense of how
           | nested an abstraction is. You could follow a function in a
           | class to it's base definition a lot easier, etc.
        
           | drusepth wrote:
           | >What confuses me on point 2 is that I think we're going to
           | have to basically invent new paradigms for "window
           | management". The thing I'm picturing is doing a PowerPoint
           | presentation in VR. We'd have people jostling for the best
           | view, and whatever "immersive" metaphor for presenting is
           | likely to be clunkier than a classic Zoom call where the
           | slides are just walked through on one big window.
           | 
           | As someone who has given a couple presentations in VR (and
           | spent ~400 hours coding/working in VR), there's a lot to be
           | done here. Some very basic examples of value-adds are:
           | 
           | - You (or your audience) can manipulate the presentation
           | "viewport" to any size and/or replicate it wherever each
           | viewer prefers in their own space (e.g. you can sit down on
           | your couch and watch the presentation on a big screen, or
           | have it as a "second monitor" next to something else, or
           | treat it Hololens-pinned style and have the screen follow you
           | around in your vision while you're working on something with
           | your hands). IME, it's much nicer than effectively giving
           | yourself a limited vertical screen monitor when you split
           | screen a meeting/presentation on Zoom.
           | 
           | - Streaming a replicated presentation video (like a
           | powerpoint) to each individual person instead of streaming a
           | singular one over a Zoom call lets viewers refer back to /
           | rewind to previous slides without disturbing others' views.
           | 
           | - Having a large view of a presentation yourself means you
           | can also take notes directly on that presentation in real
           | time, circle/underline text, draw arrows between concepts,
           | whatever you need to help yourself remember what the speaker
           | said later. I helped beta an app (that unfortunately shut
           | down) for taking notes in the margins of videos in VR which
           | would probably be a perfect use-case for things like
           | presentations/classes. You could play back or scrub through
           | the video later to see your notes in time.
           | 
           | - Obvious, but any presentation about a 3D _thing_ will
           | benefit from being displayed in a 3D space. I'd much rather
           | see a new Tesla in front of me than look at a 2D image of it,
           | or see the scale of a new roller coaster, statue, building
           | plan, etc. In "physical presense" situations like this,
           | there's also a value-add over the real thing because you
           | don't have to "jostle for the best view" -- you can just
           | phase through (or not even see) other viewers and always have
           | a front-row seat (and teleport around if you want more
           | angles). For smaller objects, being able to manipulate the
           | scale of the object (especially without also affecting the
           | scale other people are seeing it at) is a nice QoL, too.
           | 
           | - For meetings and things with audience participation, it's
           | way more intuitive in a 3D space to split up into groups (and
           | e.g. only be able to see/hear people near you) by just...
           | walking over to a group and joining in. I can't imagine doing
           | something like small group icebreakers in a company's Zoom
           | presentation.
           | 
           | There's probably a lot of new paradigms and workflows to
           | emerge when the VR space is a little more mature, as well.
           | I've been out of it for a few months now (moved and haven't
           | re-set-up base stations) and I tried to limit my value-adds
           | to just presentations, but I'm excited to see where it goes
           | in the productivity realm.
        
         | noduerme wrote:
         | I'm pretty skeptical it'll ever take off. Having tried to hang
         | around in the Oculus Go spaces early on, it was pretty clear no
         | one really had a great reason for being there. You'd sit around
         | a badly rendered bonfire and hear people talking, sometimes
         | interestingly, but it had about the same level of interest as
         | getting on a CB and talking to strangers.
         | 
         | There are two kinds of people you can meet in VR: Friends and
         | strangers. Friends, you can meet privately. You don't need a
         | public space 'verse for that. And as for jostling around or
         | randomly talking to strangers, well, you can walk outside or go
         | to a bar.
         | 
         | It seems pretty nuts that Facebook would actually put its chips
         | on this proposition. I can only view it as a totally desperate
         | attempt to distract from the train wreck of their core business
         | model.
        
           | kristiandupont wrote:
           | >Friends, you can meet privately
           | 
           | if you live close to one another. If you don't, I guess this
           | could be interesting? I don't really see myself using it but
           | I am so old fashioned that I prefer my laptop over my phone
           | so I get that the world doesn't always agree with me.
        
             | kibwen wrote:
             | My friends are far-flung and we meet privately in our
             | Discord. We have an audio channel, and anyone who's free
             | hops into it at their leisure. VR wouldn't add much there;
             | to take advantage of it would require us to look at each
             | other, which precludes doing an actual activity like
             | playing a game together.
        
             | noduerme wrote:
             | Well, or you can meet privately on Zoom, or in VR if you
             | prefer to see fake bodies instead of actual faces. I mean.
             | My friends from around the country have a Zoom poker night
             | every week or two which we started during the pandemic. I'd
             | rather just see their ugly mugs and their kids in the
             | background than sit in a fake room with a bunch of cartoon
             | avatars.
        
               | fossuser wrote:
               | The photo realistic avatars they showed off change this.
               | They were impressive - still in research stage, but it's
               | not just a cartoon.
        
               | samuli wrote:
               | Not really sure if photorealistic avatar can really
               | express all the emotions and facial expressions in a
               | detail that people perceive subconsciously.
               | 
               | This might lead to people becoming more tone-deaf and
               | having less empathy when reading others.
        
               | headsoup wrote:
               | Not to mention Facebook gathering a dataset that is a
               | virtual replica of your physical self. Imagine how much
               | that would me sold on for...
        
           | quickthrower2 wrote:
           | But there is clubhouse (presuming it's still popular?) which
           | has turned strangers into friends but maybe that's because of
           | it being pure audio and minimal interface. It's possible
           | someone will create a similar popular "gameplay" in vr?
        
             | JimDabell wrote:
             | > But there is clubhouse (presuming it's still popular?)
             | 
             | Nope: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27489374
        
           | arisAlexis wrote:
           | This sounds like Krugman's fax machine prediction
        
       | egypturnash wrote:
       | This time it's being pitched by a company who's expanded about as
       | far as they can across the existing internet, with the goal of
       | replacing it with a new 3d world where everything happens, and
       | where they get a cut of every transaction.
        
       | uhtred wrote:
       | Do you miss listening to your colleagues obnoxious opinions all
       | day? Metaverse will fix that with the metaoffice virtual work
       | space!
        
       | Gravyness wrote:
       | Because Mark has a lot of marketting money.
        
       | FounderBurr wrote:
       | And yet SL still exists and generates tons of essentially free
       | revenue. How much worse of an idea is it than the 99.999% of
       | flaccid techno spun garbage seen here that never turns a dime of
       | profit?
        
       | jrootabega wrote:
       | It's not different. The first couple attempts to pioneer
       | something will always fail just due to being new and unfamiliar.
       | When it's computers you also have the nerd/weirdo stigma, which
       | was still around in the early 2000s. Not to mention the sexually
       | charged content of second life. If the average person back then
       | was connecting to second life for polite, socially acceptable
       | content, it would have taken off. Later, giant megacorps, who
       | always recognized the potential in the tech, figure out when
       | their masses will be ready for it. It's almost more about getting
       | the people ready for the tech rather than getting the tech ready
       | for the people.
        
       | outside1234 wrote:
       | It will include scanning people's faces and a thousand other
       | privacy vortexes
        
       | cblconfederate wrote:
       | Would you prefer that Facebook throws its money somewhere else? I
       | 'd rather it be VR goggles than more spying tech.
       | 
       | Second Life has figured things out. A 3D world in a 2D screen is
       | much easier to build and interact with than a 3D world in VR
       | goggles with your hands tied. High fidelity and Sansar both tried
       | it , and both failed, and were scrapped despite "enormous
       | potential". The Oculus Quest is great, but my main use of it is
       | to view Street View imagery exactly because it doesnt require
       | much control or interaction with other users. I had tried Second
       | life in VR briefly, it was indeed nice to walk butn difficult
       | interactions made you feel like an incapacitated person. Future
       | VR can make some interactions compelling, but they won't reach
       | the expressiveness of clicks and keyboards.
       | 
       | VR is here to stay for a few million users, it's not going to
       | become mainstream even when the FOV and resolution increase. It's
       | an uncomfortable blindfold that creates stress and anxiety (as
       | any blindfold should). This is nothing like smartphones, which
       | are unobtrusive and adopt the age old tried-and-tested form of a
       | book. AR is a cool looking gimmick as well. I will wait for
       | neural implants until we can talk about VR worlds again.
        
       | newacc9 wrote:
       | Remember Myst? People went crazy for that game, they wanted to
       | explore a pretty island. I imagine the metaverse as a metropolis
       | with winding Dickensian streets that you could get lost in --
       | each with all sorts of interesting shops and experiences: jazz
       | bar, nft art gallery, movie theater, live music venue, even
       | coding lounges. The walk should be rewarding with beautiful
       | architecture, graffiti, leaves blowing in the wind, political
       | posters, adverts (basically street life). I think it could work,
       | but not in cartoon form - it would be as beautiful as Paris and
       | in hi-rez.
        
       | nsonha wrote:
       | the fact that mobile computing/IoT/social network/super
       | apps/e-commerce are already mainstream.
       | 
       | Slap almost ready VR/AR tech on top of that but we'll see how
       | that plays out
        
       | ChildOfChaos wrote:
       | I think that is only one part of the metaverse, which will likely
       | floop or at least struggle, the real metaverse is still further
       | away and that is when things will be more interesting.
       | 
       | Like AR, basically getting rid of phones and a lot of computers
       | and integrating digital into our real world, rather than just
       | having avatars moving around in a space.
       | 
       | I'm talking about, putting on a set of AR glasses to watch TV,
       | instead of having an actual TV, this way you can watch movies,
       | your GPS not being google maps on your phone but in your glasses
       | that point you in which direction to go.
       | 
       | The Metaverse is basically what Google Glass was trying to be,
       | but will include a lot of other tech as well.
        
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