[HN Gopher] American trains need more than railfan nostalgia
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       American trains need more than railfan nostalgia
        
       Author : aww_dang
       Score  : 118 points
       Date   : 2021-11-06 15:39 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.slowboring.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.slowboring.com)
        
       | rayiner wrote:
       | I think it's worth considering that maybe Americans are just bad
       | at things that require centralized solutions (trains) as compared
       | to things that can be decentralized (cars).
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | Air traffic control is centralized and seems to work fine.
        
         | pjscott wrote:
         | That sounds plausible on the face of it, but when I went
         | looking for counterexamples they weren't hard to come by.
         | Supermarkets, big box stores like Walmart, and online retail
         | giants like Amazon all run centrally-managed logistics
         | operations of staggering scale, and they do such a solid job
         | that people hardly ever think about it. Airline companies
         | suffer from weather issues and operational hiccups, but still
         | manage to transport huge numbers of people all around the
         | world, quickly, while surviving on slim profit margins. America
         | has a lot of giant factories that actually do manage to have
         | high manufacturing throughput. All of these are centralized,
         | and all demonstrate truly impressive amounts of competence.
         | 
         | (One thing these companies all have in common is that they have
         | competitors and need to cater to their customers and
         | shareholders. If they were poorly run, their customers would go
         | somewhere else. Amtrak gets federal funding whether they're
         | well run or not. This is probably a factor, though probably not
         | the only factor.)
        
       | JohnJamesRambo wrote:
       | A good start would be reasonable prices. My gf and I would love
       | to take a train, but every time we check Amtrak it is way more
       | than flying. I mean come on! I can fly through the air cheaper
       | than a train on tracks?
        
         | pm90 wrote:
         | Amtrak long distance trains have like 4 or 5 "cars". Unlike
         | planes that carry hundreds of passengers, the trains carry far
         | fewer so the cost per passenger tends to be higher. I'm
         | guessing they don't add more cars because there isn't much
         | demand but IDK; could also be their engines can't tow more.
        
         | BurningFrog wrote:
         | Tracks cost a lot to build and maintain.
         | 
         | In contrast, air costs nothing.
        
           | occz wrote:
           | Flying is highly subsidized by the simple fact that their
           | externalities are allowed to simply be pumped out to the
           | atmosphere. Rectifying that makes electrified trains a lot
           | more competitive.
        
             | BurningFrog wrote:
             | That's decent counterargument to something I didn't write.
        
       | exabrial wrote:
       | The times I've taken Amtrak have been in the NE corridor and it's
       | been a nice experience.
       | 
       | I don't think I'd consider it for a long distance trip however,
       | unless I needed to pack some extra large cargo like a mountain
       | bike.
        
         | TheCoelacanth wrote:
         | Acela on the NEC is literally the single best Amtrak route in
         | the entire country, but even it is pathetically slow. Acela's
         | average speed from DC to NYC is only 75 mph and NYC to Boston
         | is even slower.
         | 
         | We desperately need true high speed rail on that route.
        
       | supernova87a wrote:
       | Well, as much as some of the (usual) points make sense about
       | Amtrak sharing rail unreliably, the role of subsidies (hidden or
       | overt) compared to other modes, I find that stories like this
       | miss a fundamental truth / constraint that I have come to
       | believe.
       | 
       | For better or worse, we have a country that is in its middle age
       | of infrastructure and people. We are a rich country with
       | established interests and property rights where land for
       | railroads can no longer be just appropriated or bought cheaply to
       | reconfigure a rail system. We have people who can pay to have
       | individual transportation and not have to put up with the minor
       | inconveniences of public transport. We have all the debt of a
       | middle aged country, plus we need to think of our other
       | healthcare expenses in middle age, and don't have the appetite to
       | pay for another muscle car from our youth.
       | 
       | All these reasons make investing in rail a relatively expensive
       | proposition compared to alternatives, and not only that, but it's
       | especially expensive because of our high wages, standards of
       | construction, environmental reviews, etc. So we stop investing in
       | it.
       | 
       | By the way, what happens along with this? When you get into this
       | phase of a country, your engineering capabilities change, and
       | specifically, your ability to even build these systems even
       | starts to degrade and fall out of practice.
       | 
       | Take rail, or any heavy construction/engineering industry. People
       | working in such a field join it to have exciting careers, see
       | growth, etc. Generally few people join just to maintain a static
       | system. Unfortunately, there's much less excitement in being
       | "maintenance" although some people are quite innovative even in
       | such fields.
       | 
       | So where you used to have a cohort of thousands of people trained
       | and skilled at all aspects of rail building (engineering,
       | operations, finance, project management, etc), now those people
       | have either consolidated to the few projects remaining in the US
       | (traveling around, moving cities to where the work is), work for
       | Parsons or others who can aggregate enough work to keep a team
       | together, or aged out, attrited away, gone to where the actual
       | business is booming: Asia.
       | 
       | You think about how in the US, if you had to get together the
       | expert team to build a new rail connecting 2 cities, you would
       | have to search far and wide to find the people qualified, and pay
       | them huge contractor sums. Not only that, they would be out of
       | practice of how to pitch such a deal to the cities and the people
       | along the route. Everything would have to be done custom.
       | 
       | In China, just to take an example, there are (up until just
       | recently) 10,000 rail engineers who stamp out such a rail every
       | goddamn month. How can you compete with a country that's in such
       | a growth phase, unless somehow your country has an active
       | strategy about how to renew itself in middle age?
       | 
       | It's a problem. A very hard to solve problem, deeper than just
       | rail schedules or simple subsidies.
        
         | klabb3 wrote:
         | > We have people who can pay to have individual transportation
         | and not have to put up with the minor inconveniences of public
         | transport.
         | 
         | Air travel is public transport and Americans use it all the
         | time. High speed rail has worked fabolous on 1-2h flight
         | distances for decades in many parts of the world.
         | 
         | It is preferable in every way to flights: total time, comfort,
         | leg space, security & check in hassle, window sizes & scenery,
         | luggage space and so on.
         | 
         | In many areas there are good arguments for why US
         | infrastructure can't be retrofitted into European, but for
         | intercity travel (eg SF-LA-SD or Boston - NYC) all the
         | prerequisites are there.
         | 
         | Obviously, I'm under no illusions that it would actually happen
         | due to attitudes, culture, politics and so on.
        
         | TulliusCicero wrote:
         | US big infrastructure projects tend to be 2x or more expensive
         | even compared to other developed nations, including ones much
         | older than us.
         | 
         | There's definitely a cost disease at play, and that makes it
         | vastly harder to build and maintain the infrastructure we need.
         | Unfortunately, neither major party seems to care in the least:
         | the Republicans just want to cut government spending in general
         | rather than make it more efficient, and the Democrats are happy
         | to intentionally balloon the cost of new buildings and
         | infrastructure to satisfy allies in the labor movement*. Hardly
         | anyone talks seriously about efficiency.
         | 
         | * It's common to have requirements to pay the 'prevailing union
         | wage', which means no price pressure from the government, no
         | negotiation to get a better deal is possible. Nothing against
         | unions, but intentionally going, "we're going to ban ourselves
         | from negotiating a good price when we're spending hundreds of
         | millions of dollars" is ludicrous.
        
           | selectodude wrote:
           | In 2012, Amtrak estimated that it would cost $150 billion to
           | upgrade the Northeast Corridor for legitimate high speed
           | rail. Almost $330 million _per mile_ for a right of way that
           | they _already own_. I 'm sure that would be $250 billion
           | today because why the hell not?
           | 
           | At prices like that, of course we'll never see a mile of new
           | track ever laid again. We've decided that the whole thing is
           | a grift, thrown our hands up and given up. Somehow the French
           | can dig under central Paris for the same price that we can
           | lay some rail on a plot of land that we already own.
        
             | jcranmer wrote:
             | > Almost $330 million per mile for a right of way that they
             | already own.
             | 
             | Actually, no. That proposal included entirely new tunnels
             | and city-center stations in Baltimore and Philadelphia, and
             | an entirely new ROW that went from NYC out Long Island, a
             | Long Island Sound crossing to New Haven, new ROW up to
             | Springfield, and then east into Boston, rather than reusing
             | any of the BOS-NYC right-of-way. All of which are expensive
             | and relatively low value (although the CT corridor does
             | need entirely new ROW suitable for HSR, the cost of
             | building such a ROW largely parallel to the existing one--
             | including the taking of expensive property in CT--is likely
             | cheaper than building the Long Island Sound crossing _by
             | itself_ ).
             | 
             | In a way, I think this is an example of where a large part
             | of American cost disease comes from--projects are designed
             | on the basis of large, flashy megaprojects rather than
             | looking for how to make multiple small, incremental
             | improvements that can be done on the cheap. For example,
             | you could probably squeeze a half an hour or so out of BOS-
             | NYC train time simply by fixing dispatching issues on the
             | New Rochelle-New Haven stretch, which would require very
             | little construction (turning Rye into a flying junction
             | would be the biggest piece I could imagine)--$10s of
             | millions at worst.
        
           | BuyMyBitcoins wrote:
           | I also can't help but think we Americans "democratize"
           | construction too much. Whenever a project is announced dozens
           | of people come out of the woodwork to protest any and all
           | aspects of the plan. Things get delayed because the local
           | busybodies bring up as much as they can to either halt the
           | construction entirely or to demand concessions. Some of the
           | regulations make sense for _most_ new projects, but does an
           | existing rail line they're trying to allow passenger trains
           | on _need_ a new environmental impact study because the locals
           | demanded a new 15 foot high sound wall? It's already inside
           | of a major city and it's not like there are any endangered
           | species it's going to impact.
        
       | kumarsw wrote:
       | Somewhat tangentially, I watched a recent Not Just Bikes YouTube
       | video that discusses the merits of commuter rail [1]. The video
       | is obviously trying to discourage infrastructure that supports
       | car-based suburbs, but another point came out that struck me:
       | commuter rail is very expensive infrastructure with very low
       | utilization, say 4 incoming trains in the morning and 4 outgoing
       | trains in the evening. Any public transportation option needs to
       | be compared against the default choice of "run more buses," which
       | it turns out is pretty hard to beat in terms of cost-
       | effectiveness.
       | 
       | [1] https://youtu.be/vxWjtpzCIfA
        
         | TigeriusKirk wrote:
         | Los Angeles did sort of a compromise in the San Fernando
         | Valley. Instead of light rail, they put extra long busses on a
         | dedicated busway. Part of the busway was an old rail line.
         | 
         | It's worked out pretty well. It seems to attract people who
         | wouldn't ride metro buses, for one thing.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G_Line_(Los_Angeles_Metro)
        
           | fulafel wrote:
           | The WP article explains that it was just to work around a
           | bill forbidding surface rail on that route.
        
             | mst wrote:
             | That might have been _why_ they decided to do it but the
             | question of return-on-investment in terms of infrastructure
             | costs is still interesting and doesn 't really depend on
             | the underlying motivation for the choice.
        
         | Spooky23 wrote:
         | Busses are similar in some ways to the Amtrak issue. They are
         | cheap, but very variable -- although things like bus rapid
         | transit help.
         | 
         | I live in a small city, and the return bus trip takes 45-60m.
         | The morning trip takes about 20. I pay about $80/mo to park at
         | work, and my commute is 6-10m each way.
        
         | nickpeterson wrote:
         | More high end, electric buses is probably the best option.
         | They're comfortable, take the room of 3 cars, fit way more
         | people, and use existing infrastructure.
        
           | himlion wrote:
           | Yes I think so too. I don't see rail competing with that once
           | the charging challenges have been solved.
        
         | urthor wrote:
         | I forget where I read it, but the cost per km of rail vs buses
         | is pretty appalling.
         | 
         | I suppose that rail has theoretically the advantage in being
         | more reliable. But I do wonder if you could carry the same
         | quantity (outside the subway cities) of passengers on a double
         | lane bus road as a train.
        
           | occz wrote:
           | You need to consider the price of road infrastructure in the
           | total cost of buses. If that is not considered, then you
           | could just as easily just calculate the cost of trains by
           | excluding the rail and signalling-cost (and you would be just
           | as incorrect).
        
             | sokoloff wrote:
             | You should certainly consider the buses' share of the road
             | cost, just like you should consider only the portion of the
             | rail cost that is built and maintained for the commuter
             | usage. If either of those shares is 100%, logically it
             | should be burdened with 100% of the cost. Bus depots, bus
             | maintenance yard, dedicated bus lanes, and bus stop
             | turnouts should all be 100%.
        
           | bombcar wrote:
           | The big advantage of rails is people don't try to drive on
           | them.
           | 
           | Build a dedicated bus lane across the country and everyone
           | will want to use it for their cars, and either do so or bitch
           | to the politicians that they can't.
        
           | MereInterest wrote:
           | Is the cost of roads handled in that comparison, or are the
           | roads assumed to already exist? (And are the roads being
           | continually expanded to keep up with the induced demand from
           | previous expansion?) If not, then that gives buses an unfair
           | advantage in the comparison.
           | 
           | Also, per kilometer probably isn't the best metric, unless
           | you're building into a low-density area. It would be better
           | to compare the cost per kilometer, divided by the throughput
           | (people/hour).
        
         | jeffbee wrote:
         | That sounds like the worst rail service imaginable. Very
         | American.
         | 
         | The Swiss town of Chur, which has the same population as Menlo
         | Park, California, and which is a good distance from Zurich, as
         | Menlo Park is from San Francisco, has five S-Bahn trains every
         | hour, all day long, plus 9 other regional, interregional, and
         | intercity trains per hour.
         | 
         | There's nothing fundamental about trains that says you have to
         | have insulting levels of service. It's a choice.
        
           | ravitation wrote:
           | It's a choice funded by the automobile and airline lobbies.
        
           | Fiahil wrote:
           | We went to switzerland for vacation last summer, and we were
           | quite impressed by the rail system there. Everything runs on
           | time, there is no shortage of space, you can buy your tickets
           | online and the trains are quiet and clean. I'm from France,
           | so I'm not easily impressed by a working train station.
           | 
           | I don't think you can hold any American state to that level
           | of expectation when they are 70 years late in their railroad
           | infrastructure. Not even California would be able to match a
           | 1/10 of your rail service before 2050.
        
             | jeffbee wrote:
             | I don't need the whole USA or even California. I'd settle
             | for fixing the Bay Area, which has close to the same
             | population as Switzerland, about the same economic
             | activity, and only half the territory to cover. It should
             | be a piece of cake.
        
               | rsj_hn wrote:
               | > It should be a piece of cake.
               | 
               | Eh, you can't compare a local area GDP to a national GDP
               | like this. Yes, tons of software licensing and ad revenue
               | are funneled to the SF region giving us a local area GDP
               | of 591 Billion dollars[1] which is comparable to
               | Switzerland's $750 Billion, but if you try to convert
               | that regional income into infrastructure spending, you'll
               | find that
               | 
               | 1) the ability of the bay area to tax that 591 Billion is
               | much less than the ability of Switzerland to tax it's
               | economic activity, as Switzerland captures ~32% of it's
               | national income, while the bay area captures something
               | like 10% of its regional income, so a ballpark 1/3
               | deflator.
               | 
               | 2) once revenue is obtained from taxing, the efficiency
               | with which the distributed bay area governments can make
               | use of the tax revenue is much, much lower than the
               | efficiency with which the Swiss government can spend the
               | money. I'd estimate a 1/10 deflator. This is because we
               | will waste tons of money doing various studies,
               | funnelling side payments to local machine politics,
               | battling environment impact reports in courts, funding
               | various diversity and equity initiatives, and set up a
               | dozen committees to oversee the spending plans.
               | 
               | 3) once a dollar is actually spent on the production of
               | infrastructure in the bay area, you'll find that the we
               | will get much, much less for that dollar in
               | infrastructure spending then the same dollar spent in
               | Switzerland on infrastructure. I'd say another factor of
               | 1/3 as per https://www.vox.com/22534714/rail-roads-
               | infrastructure-costs...
               | 
               | So when you multiply all those deflators, you'll find
               | that our 591 Billion can be usefully channelled to 1/90 *
               | 591/750 ~= 1% of the useful infrastructure that
               | Switzerland has.
               | 
               | Which seems about right.
               | 
               | Remember it cost San Francisco $3 Billion for the DTX[2]
               | which is 2 kilometers of transit. We are not Switzerland,
               | we are a dysfunctional, corrupt, patchwork of local
               | governments that doesn't really understand much of
               | anything when it comes to infrastructure or efficient
               | government.
               | 
               | [1] https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=70&step=
               | 1&acrdn...
               | 
               | [2] https://sf.curbed.com/2018/6/18/17464616/bay-area-
               | subway-tra...
        
               | jeffbee wrote:
               | I didn't say it _would_ work, only that it _should_ work.
        
               | umanwizard wrote:
               | Thanks for this. I always get irritated by comments from
               | Europeans like "why haven't the Americans fixed the
               | dysfunctional things about their country?". You might as
               | well ask "why don't Syrians just decide not to have a
               | war?". Reality is not so simple.
        
         | TulliusCicero wrote:
         | It depends on the commuter rail. The S-Bahn in Germany is sort
         | of 'commuter rail' but also gets regular use for other types of
         | trips. And actual commuter-specific train lines tend to go on
         | just general tracks that are used for other lines as well, so
         | it's not a huge deal.
         | 
         | It's just that US-style development -- more or less mandated by
         | the government -- makes public transit in general infeasible.
         | For example, in Munich where I lived, there are suburbs nearby
         | surrounded completely by farmland, where the whole town is
         | still a handful of minutes by bike to the train station. That
         | means that even in these sleepy little towns, it's dense enough
         | to where a car is unnecessary. In the US, that kind of
         | development is a rarity, because the local zoning makes it
         | literally illegal, and the roads have been designed to be
         | hostile to anything that's not a car.
        
           | jeffbee wrote:
           | That kind of town is vanishingly rare in the US. The only
           | ones I can think of in California where a meaningful amount
           | of the town is within walking distance of a train station are
           | Davis and Chico, both university towns. Chico only has one
           | train per day and it comes at 3 in the morning :-/
        
         | mushbino wrote:
         | Reliable rail has been supported very heavily wherever it
         | exists and it's the preferred option nearly everywhere.
         | 
         | Busses are slow, uncomfortable, and less reliable, even if
         | cheaper to operate. They can be a decent connector or last mile
         | option.
        
           | xabotage wrote:
           | Buses would be way better if roads were designed to
           | prioritize them over single passenger cars. Instead (in the
           | US), you're just stuck in traffic with extra stops, so you
           | might as well drive.
        
         | Doctor_Fegg wrote:
         | > commuter rail is very expensive infrastructure with very low
         | utilization, say 4 incoming trains in the morning and 4
         | outgoing trains in the evening
         | 
         | Post-COVID travelling patterns in the UK seem to suggest that
         | the peaks are being ironed out. Whereas previously rolling
         | stock procurement was dictated by the number of bums on seats
         | for the morning and evening peak, now there's much more
         | consistent demand across the day, and at weekends too - on some
         | lines, weekend usage is now reportedly exceeding weekdays. No
         | doubt it'll vary from place to place, but it looks like the
         | days of buying enough rolling stock for the peaks, then having
         | it sit empty for the rest of the day, might be over.
        
       | inglor_cz wrote:
       | There are basically two modes of operation where trains can
       | really be competitive:
       | 
       | a. Suburban-to-city center commuter trains stopping every two
       | miles or so, vacuuming up all the people from the suburbia that
       | want to get to the city without the hassle of endless traffic
       | jams. These need a certain density of the suburbs, so that the
       | stops make sense and the train is "just full", but not absurdly
       | crammed.
       | 
       | b. High speed connections between metropolitan areas, like
       | Madrid-Barcelona, Tokyo-Kyoto, Koln-Frankfurt etc. Usually, at
       | least a million people must live on either end of the connection.
       | 
       | One of the problems is that these two services need separate
       | tracks. Suburban commuter trains are much slower on average than
       | high speed trains and they cannot share the same track, unless
       | you want to risk chaos every day.
       | 
       | Unfortunately, few densely inhabited places in the U.S. have
       | space left for so many tracks, especially in the wider city
       | centers. A potential renaissance of rail travel in the U.S. would
       | likely require underground tunnels. Which is possible (see
       | London's Crosslink project), but not exactly cheap.
        
         | ravitation wrote:
         | The Texas Triangle has a higher population density than France,
         | a relative abundance of space between major cities, and four
         | major metropolitan areas... But it's private companies trying
         | to build high-speed rail, not Amtrak. The idea that it's a
         | geography problem, at least for regional rail lines, is not
         | very compelling.
        
         | reillyse wrote:
         | I think relatively speaking the US is not densely inhabited. So
         | sure in densely packed places there is not much space (by
         | definition) but then almost nowhere in the US is densely
         | packed. E.g. between LA and SF it's 99% farmland, between LA
         | and Vegas it's mostly farm or desert.
         | 
         | What the US needs is political will and I think the political
         | will in the US has been eroded (by bribes) by the petrol, car
         | and flying lobbies.
        
           | TheCoelacanth wrote:
           | DC to Boston is basically one continuous urban area, yet we
           | still don't have high speed rail on that route.
        
             | reillyse wrote:
             | Right, we are in agreement. I think there should be rail in
             | urban areas, but I was specifically refuting the idea that
             | there was no room for rail.
        
         | samstave wrote:
         | >>>a. Suburban-to-city center commuter trains stopping every
         | two miles or so, vacuuming up all the people from the suburbia
         | that want to get to the city without the hassle of endless
         | traffic jams. These need a certain density of the suburbs, so
         | that the stops make sense and the train is "just full", but not
         | absurdly crammed.
         | 
         | UHMmmmmm
         | 
         | Cal train from south SF to say - moutain view on a bike was the
         | worst...
         | 
         | They would only pull a couple cars and only one of them would
         | be a bike car.
         | 
         | Many times had the bike car been full and I had been physically
         | stopped from boarding the train with a bike... when there was
         | clearly more room on the train's bike car - it was that the
         | bike-hangers were full...
         | 
         | I was late to a number of meetings because of this.
         | 
         | Also - Rail is so poorly integrated that BART and Amtrak and
         | Caltrain all have less than optimal intersecting stations.
        
       | t0mmyb0y wrote:
       | I love trains, watching & riding, and not a railfan. What we need
       | is secure lines. Way too easy to derail trains in middle of
       | nowhere. It happens and is not reported so we can feel safe.
        
       | Lammy wrote:
       | Fun fact: the name "Amtrak" was a last-minute change. The company
       | was planned to be named "Railpax" as a pun on the industry
       | abbreviation for "passenger" (PAX) and "Pax Americana".
        
       | markus_zhang wrote:
       | I think one of the problems is that passenger trains don't get a
       | lot of business so it's difficult to scale up? Plus the railroads
       | seem to be owned by different private companies so maybe that
       | contributes to the problem too.
       | 
       | Off-topic:
       | 
       | In the early 90s I was a happy Chinese boy who travelled between
       | Hefei (the provincial city of Anhui province) and Wuhu (another
       | city in Anhui province) by train frequently. Back then the
       | passenger trains had three categories: 1) Slow (stopped at almost
       | every station); 2) Fast and 3) Passenger-Fast. "Passenger-Fast"
       | was the fastest and other trains including freights gave way to
       | it. But it was also the most expensive one so I generally took
       | "Slow" or "Fast". For a mere 150KM it usually took 5 hours and
       | more with half of the time spent on waiting for other trains to
       | pass. The worst part was that Hefei and Wuhu sit at opposite
       | sides of the Long River so I had to get off the train at the
       | north side and take a passenger ship to reach Wuhu. The whole
       | journey could take as much as 7~8 hours.
       | 
       | But it was also pretty fun. I was able to lift the windows and
       | stick my neck out to look for trains on the other track (very
       | dangerous!). The locomotives were steam engines (steam engines
       | were largely being replaced but some were retained) and I still
       | dreamed of their roaring occasionally when dreaming.
        
         | exolymph wrote:
         | Thank you for sharing your nostalgic memories with us, you
         | conjured the carefree wonder of childhood for me <3
        
           | markus_zhang wrote:
           | No problem :) Those were the better days.
        
         | neltnerb wrote:
         | I have heard it said that with public transit (including inter-
         | city travel) service drives demand. Until you can rely on it
         | for your commute people don't use it at all. For inter-city
         | rail the "service" includes getting you to a location where you
         | don't need to already magically have a car there to use.
         | 
         | But I'm not so sure where this idea comes from, I've heard it
         | said but not seen actual research. It seems simple, but you
         | can't just take a high speed rail and put a stop in the middle
         | of nowhere and expect a city to pop up. Clearly as in their
         | example for Waterloo thoughtful service might drive demand but
         | useless service not so much.
        
           | markus_zhang wrote:
           | I'm not sure about inter-city travel because as you said the
           | train can't just stop in the middle of no where. But I think
           | it works for subways and buses, at least in China.
           | 
           | China has a different model of city economic expansion and
           | here is the basic idea:
           | 
           | - Government identifies new areas to develop (they could be
           | "out of city" but usually just suburbs/rural);
           | 
           | - Public transits were developed to cover those lands before
           | others move (so no malls, no hospitals, no residential
           | buildings, etc.);
           | 
           | - Because it takes a lot of time and money to develop public
           | transit, city sometimes issue bonds;
           | 
           | - Other buildings start to move in, usually starting from
           | residential buildings and malls;
           | 
           | - City expects the revenue and tax from newly developed lands
           | to cover the cost of bonds
           | 
           | This sort of "creates" new cities (actually they are called
           | satellite cities) but I don't think it gets to extend very
           | far.
        
       | wpietri wrote:
       | Wow, this is a really good article.
       | 
       | In my youth I took trains a fair bit in the midwest for journeys
       | of a few hours. But I hadn't done a long trip until the summer of
       | 2019, where we did SF -> Chicago. I truly loved it; there's a
       | kind of enforced serenity to it that is a rare commodity these
       | days.
       | 
       | Admittedly the whole experience felt a bit retro; the the
       | passenger cars could use a modern update. Or at least an attempt
       | to seek parity with Europe. And there are long stretches with no
       | internet access, which I have mixed feelings about. But overall,
       | it was a joy.
       | 
       | And of course it gave me an idea for an app to build. The number
       | one question I had was, "What the hell is that out the window?"
       | It was also a frequent question Amtrak employees get. So I taught
       | myself Flutter and a little ML and built an app that was
       | basically a dynamic, POV-specific rail travel guide. Whenever you
       | opened it it would show you a map of your surroundings and nearby
       | Wikipedia points of interest, with the ability to tap for details
       | and photos.
       | 
       | Happily, a friend did a long trail trip in early 2020, so I even
       | had a beta tester. Result: positive! My other market data
       | suggested that what I was doing was dicey as far as a sustainable
       | business went, but it seemed worth a go. And then the pandemic
       | came along, killing the recreational travel market. Oops!
       | 
       | Anyhow, I also had joined the Rail Passengers Association, a pro-
       | train lobby group, and went to one of their semiannual meetings.
       | The audience wouldn't have been out of place in an Iowan
       | retirement home. There was a modest sprinkling of middle aged
       | people, and even a few representatives of the Numtot contingent.
       | [1] That "railfan nostalgia" was a major driver of attendance.
       | 
       | The people in charge were motivated by more, of course. They made
       | sharp, analytical cases for the value of trains and were keenly
       | aware of the pernicious underinvestment in rail and the
       | difficulty of competing with (subsidized) car and air travel. I
       | left convinced that a) especially as we decarbonize, there was a
       | good case for rail, b) getting anything done versus vested
       | interests, legislator cluelessness, and American business culture
       | was very much an uphill slog, and c) the geriatric nature of the
       | market meant the market for any sort of app was much smaller than
       | I was hoping.
       | 
       | I wish them all the best, though.
       | 
       | [1] https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/jul/05/meet-the-
       | numt...
        
       | jeffbee wrote:
       | Here's some math I have been trying to socialize for a few years.
       | The cost of simply nationalizing the Union Pacific is not very
       | high. You could take over the governance of the tracks with
       | serious conflicts between freight and passenger service and spin
       | off the rest of it into a new operating company with all of the
       | remainder of the freight network, the rolling stock etc. The net
       | cost would be a few percentage points of the value of the UPRR,
       | single-digit billions at most. It would be well worth it to solve
       | the conflicts in places like Sacramento-to-Bay Area.
        
       | occz wrote:
       | If car use and infrastructure wasn't so heavily subsidized, then
       | trains would likely fare a lot better.
        
         | aww_dang wrote:
         | Japan's private rail system is sometimes characterized as a
         | real estate development scheme with a railroad attached.
         | 
         | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-05-18/the-secre...
         | 
         | >That's the most of any private railway in Japan, as of 2006,
         | according to Calimente. That year Tokyu generated $2.63 billion
         | in revenue en route to $587 million in profits. Rail fares
         | brought in about a third of that figure, real estate holdings
         | reap another third, and retail about a fifth.
         | 
         | Even in a highly managed economy, private or semi-private rail
         | may be able to compete under the right circumstances.
        
           | pm90 wrote:
           | I could totally see railway stations becoming "hubs", with
           | restaurants/bars/coffeeshops for people to just hang out
           | pre/post journey. In SFBA the Caltrain stations are totally
           | deserted and have maybe a parking lot; this seemed really
           | unusual to me as someone who grew up in Mumbai where the
           | train stations have all kinds of stores selling food/books
           | etc. It seemed so... dead. Somewhat alarmingly they don't
           | even have public restrooms!
           | 
           | This is predicated on foot traffic though. And American
           | transit systems are, let's say, not the most appealing. I do
           | hope that it changes.
        
             | newleaf wrote:
             | This is the model being tried at the Miami Brightline
             | station. The owners were (are?): Florida East Coast
             | Industries, which is owned by Fortress Investment Group,
             | which owned by Japanese conglomerate Softbank.
        
             | drdeadringer wrote:
             | > In SFBA the Caltrain stations are totally deserted
             | 
             | Whilst some are, there are also a lot that are right next
             | to "downtown areas" with restaurants/bars/coffeeshops.
             | Sunnyvale, Mt View, Palo Alto, Redwood City for examples.
             | 
             | Are you thinking just of the San Francisco terminus or the
             | current "pre-Google development" San Jose Diridon terminus?
        
               | pm90 wrote:
               | Yes, I use the Sunnyvale/Santa Clara - SF route.
        
         | samstave wrote:
         | Im really surprised that there is no "Train Ferry" -- A train
         | that one drives their car onto and takes the train across
         | country/states and then disembarks with their car...
         | 
         | I used to take the train very often from sacramento to the bay
         | area... It was clean, has wifi, quiet, power, drinks, food...
         | 
         | It was a great commute - but the prices are still too high...
        
           | aww_dang wrote:
           | https://www.amtrak.com/auto-train
        
             | samstave wrote:
             | Well Hot Damn!... this is definitely on track.
             | 
             | The only problem that I have with Amtrak is their
             | disconnect with modern pricing for value of service.
             | 
             | Case in point being a train ride from say SF to Seattle is
             | WAY more expensive than a flight, many times longer and
             | other than no plane crash risks... what value is it for
             | that price?
             | 
             | I find it akin to the guy on a slow sunday morning drive on
             | an impassable two-lane highway where his old restored 1938
             | ford only goes 45 mph and the speed limit is 65 and there
             | are mad waitresses trying to make it to clock-in time and
             | the old guy is oblivious to other's need to be to work on
             | time...
             | 
             | (this is a true story based on a close friend of mine who
             | works at the French Laundry and is constantly thwarted by
             | oblivious slow drivers)
        
               | aww_dang wrote:
               | It only makes sense if you value it based on other
               | factors. Some of these items are more valuable to me than
               | the cost. The time factors are difficult depending on
               | your circumstances.
               | 
               | 1) No TSA (at least when I last used it)
               | 
               | 2) You can show up with a bicycle. They will provide a
               | box and you pack it yourself. Your bicycle will not be
               | molested.
               | 
               | 3) You can get a private compartment and drink your own
               | liquor
               | 
               | 4) You like trains
        
               | macintux wrote:
               | About 8 years ago I was caught off guard by TSA running a
               | checkpoint at the Amtrak station in Chicago. I don't know
               | whether that was a common occurrence at the time, and I
               | haven't ridden in years, but certainly in the moment I
               | was not enthused by the potential encroachment.
        
               | cheschire wrote:
               | A buddy of mine recently moved from DC to Florida. He
               | tested the auto-train once, with his family of 7 and a
               | car and the total cost was $1800. After COVID, it now
               | costs double that. Now he just drives the 12 hours using
               | a diesel pickup truck.
               | 
               | So they weren't always so disconnected from modern
               | pricing, but I don't think the effects of COVID have
               | fully played out across all the transportation options
               | yet to know what 2021+ prices should look like.
        
               | jdavis703 wrote:
               | There are two lane rural highways in Napa where the speed
               | limit is 65 MPH? I'm going to need a source for that one.
        
               | tomc1985 wrote:
               | Not Napa but I recall the 101 has some really high speed
               | limits for some of the two-lane sections through
               | Humboldt/Mendocino/Sonoma counties
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | TulliusCicero wrote:
           | The amount of storage space you'd need for each car would
           | likely make this too expensive for all but a handful of
           | people.
        
             | R0b0t1 wrote:
             | No, this exists between DC and Orlando on Amtrack. I
             | considered contacting Amtrack to charter a car train to my
             | location to another. They'll probably do it for enough
             | money and it's not that much money.
             | 
             | What you need to know to argue is, say, they're not losing
             | all of the berths on a vehicle transport car if you want to
             | move one car. They're having you pay the upkeep for that
             | one trip which is not the same as the fully loaded vehicle
             | car.
        
             | tomc1985 wrote:
             | They do it with the Eurotunnel, though I can't remember if
             | I saw anything but trucks and busses on it
        
               | c_hackett wrote:
               | With Eurotunnel Shuttle services you drive on with a road
               | vehicle, remain with the vehicle for the transit and then
               | drive off at the other terminal. Europorte runs freight
               | operations through the tunnel. Finally Eurostar is the
               | pure passenger service running the likes of London to
               | Paris.
        
               | ErikCorry wrote:
               | Cars too. These are pretty big trains though, don't fit
               | through normal bridges.
               | 
               | The auto trains that go across Europe are much narrower
               | and take a lot longer to load and unload. They are pretty
               | expensive and only used for very long distances. Most of
               | the time it makes more sense to rent a car at your
               | destination.
        
           | microtherion wrote:
           | That exists in Switzerland for a number of tunnels, but
           | passengers stay in their cars, which is presumably not what
           | you had in mind: https://www.bls.ch/en/fahren/unterwegs-
           | mit/autoverlad
        
           | c_hackett wrote:
           | Motorail operated in the UK 1966 to 1995.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motorail_(British_Rail)
        
       | sokoloff wrote:
       | I live in Cambridge (across the river from and on the same subway
       | system as Boston). In theory Amtrak should be able to attract my
       | business for trips to NYC. Prior to COVID, about twice as often I
       | flew to NYC as took rail. The times I took rail, the train
       | literally never arrived on time at either end of the journey.
       | We'd sit for an hour waiting for some track or switch problem to
       | be fixed. Or we'd sit for a few 15 minute stretches for no
       | apparent or announced reason.
       | 
       | If I could count on the arrival time, I could use the train for
       | business meetings near the train station. Since I can't, I fly in
       | and Uber over which, even if it takes longer per the published
       | timetable, has less tail-risk of being late.
       | 
       | No one needs hourly rail service between city pairs (as the
       | article implicitly calls for) while the variability is -10 to
       | +150 minutes.
       | 
       | Looking for a Nov 15-19 trip to NYC, Amtrak is $306 on Acela and
       | I could plan to start working around lunch on Monday and work a
       | full day on Friday if I was willing to arrive home around
       | midnight. On Delta, waking up around the same time, I could
       | reliably attend a 9AM meeting on Monday and working the same full
       | day Friday, get home in time to say good night to my kids. That
       | would cost $157 plus two Ubers. That's with spotting Amtrak the
       | advantage of a meeting walking distance from Penn Station and
       | riding on the crown jewel of the Amtrak network: Northeast
       | corridor Acela.
        
         | iso1210 wrote:
         | > No one needs hourly rail service between city pairs (as the
         | article implicitly calls for) while the variability is -10 to
         | +150 minutes.
         | 
         | While there's always a risk for delays (I've been stuck at
         | Heathrow for 3 hours before thinking "If I'd have taken the
         | train I'd be there by now"), you should be aiming for a network
         | at 95%+ of services arriving within a few minutes of the
         | arrival time. I understand that US passenger trains don't have
         | priority, and thus this isn't workable.
         | 
         | On that assumption, given the distance and size of
         | Boston/NY/Philly/Washington, I'd expect at least a 30 minute
         | service, taking well under 4 hours (should really be under 3)
         | from Boston to Washington (with stops in NY, and maybe
         | Phillidelphia). It's only 400 miles, that's like Paris-
         | Marseille, and far shorted than a 4 hour 560 mile Tokyo -
         | Hiroshima trip)
        
           | xxpor wrote:
           | >I understand that US passenger trains don't have priority,
           | and thus this isn't workable.
           | 
           | This is largely true, but _isn 't_ on the NEC. It's one of
           | the few corridors that Amtrak actually owns.
        
             | Redoubts wrote:
             | Mostly. They don't own the stretch through Connecticut for
             | example, and the train will come to full stops between
             | stations as a result.
        
               | PLenz wrote:
               | This stretch is owned by another rail network (ConnDot)
               | that prioritizes other passenger trains (Metro North and
               | Shoreline East)
        
               | iso1210 wrote:
               | There's a large advantage to passengers having a
               | nationally organized network - same as with air traffic
               | control (provided by government), or highways (provided
               | by government). Of course track segregation between non
               | stop services and local services would be better.
        
         | ardit33 wrote:
         | I am the opposite of you. I live in NYC and my parents in
         | Boston, and I take the train all the time.
         | 
         | Flying is very unpleasant, as you still have to deal with
         | getting in and out of airports, the whole stay in the TSA line,
         | remove your shoes and belt thing. You are completely omitting
         | the security crap you have to deal with air travel. Meanwhile
         | the train trip starts and ends in downtown. (I live in
         | manhattan and can just walk to the train station).
         | 
         | Also, just the taxi fare from JFK to Manhattan is about 70+
         | tips. Sure, you can take the subway ($8), but that will add
         | another 1hr to your trip.
        
           | carbocation wrote:
           | Doesn't really strike me as the opposite. If the GP post is
           | talking about being on time for specific meetings and you are
           | talking about visiting family, you're optimizing for
           | different objectives.
           | 
           | Personally, I use the train vs fly to NY from BOS depending
           | on my objective.
        
           | lddemi wrote:
           | your air travel could be significantly optimized with TSA
           | Precheck ($20year) and Clear ($120/year) to effectively
           | eliminate security headaches
        
             | fruffy wrote:
             | Why would you pay extra and deal with the additional
             | headache of being screened/having to enter your private
             | data if you could just take the more convenient and largely
             | anonymous train for under a $100? A train where you are not
             | squeezed into the seat like a sardine?
             | 
             | I am personally also really uncomfortable with the notion
             | that you have to pay an additional convenience fee just to
             | have a mildly more pleasant travel experience. Coach class
             | should not mean that you are cattle.
        
               | jdavis703 wrote:
               | People in coach can still use PreCheck. Work only pays
               | for economy tickets, so I can tell you PreCheck still
               | works fine.
               | 
               | Also, FYI there are two price levels for TSA screening.
               | One is the TSA PreCheck, the other is the 9/11 security
               | fee everyone has to pay. A universal PreCheck would
               | probably mean increasing the security fee.
        
             | samstave wrote:
             | And into what little database are my deets being entered
             | for eternity by using either of these options, and to whom
             | does the visibility to this data go?
        
               | iso1210 wrote:
               | Presumably the same database your details go in anyway,
               | just with less security theatre.
        
               | Scoundreller wrote:
               | Yeah, we can't make it look like we're relaxing security,
               | but if we charge you an application, sit on it, and make
               | felons lives worse, that's cool.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | Looking over the felonies for which TSA PreCheck is
               | unavailable, it doesn't appear to a thoughtlessly
               | compiled make-felons-suffer list:
               | https://www.tsa.gov/disqualifying-offenses-factors
        
               | Kye wrote:
               | I can see it for Part C, but why A and B? If someone's
               | been charged and done whatever was required to be free
               | enough that they can fly, then that should be the end of
               | it. Especially things on that list. If _treason_ isn 't
               | enough for the government to execute them or lock them up
               | and throw away the key, then it shouldn't matter to the
               | TSA.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | If you can't see how felony conviction for having illegal
               | explosives might reasonably preclude you from reduced
               | security screening, I'm not sure anything I can say will
               | convince you.
        
               | Kye wrote:
               | If you can't see how the government continuing to treat
               | someone like a criminal after they've paid their debt to
               | society is wrong, I'm not sure anything I can say will
               | convince you.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | Are they being treated like a criminal in this case? Or
               | are they merely being treated as requiring standard (not
               | reduced) security screening?
               | 
               | I'm far more concerned where felons are denied the right
               | to vote or to bear arms than I am with them having to
               | stand in the same security line as most people.
        
               | TigeriusKirk wrote:
               | Your deets are going in a little database every time you
               | buy a train ticket.
        
               | Symbiote wrote:
               | Can you not buy anonymous tickets, for example at a
               | counter in the station or from a machine?
               | 
               | There are still enough machines that take cash that this
               | is a practical option in most of Europe. Buying a ticket
               | in advance works, but requires a trip to the station.
        
             | lotsofpulp wrote:
             | Clear is one step too far to paying for freedom. Global
             | entry money at least goes to one gang I already pay
             | protection money to, the government. Clear is a non
             | government gang that somehow got the ability to get paid in
             | exchange for giving people more freedom.
        
               | bitwize wrote:
               | That's how America has always worked, though: freedom is
               | an asset you buy with money. They're just saying the
               | quiet part out loud now.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | When you buy it from the government, at least there is a
               | veneer of it having come from democratically elected
               | leaders and going back to a pot of resources that are
               | democratically spent.
               | 
               | As in there was zero reason for the government to give
               | Clear a cut of the money, other than outright corruption.
               | They already have the department of homeland security.
        
             | standardUser wrote:
             | Getting to/from the airport is the much larger headache
             | than security in a lot of places, especially in NYC. Even
             | if you're willing to pay $50-$100 each way for a car, it's
             | not always easy to get a car and it's a long drive. It
             | takes almost no time for Manhattanites to get to a train
             | and costs virtually nothing.
        
           | fennecfoxen wrote:
           | > $70 plus tips
           | 
           | LIRR into Penn. $16 air train + peak direction ticket (you
           | can buy the latter on your phone) and much faster (20 minutes
           | after you catch it at Jamaica). Less annoying going into Penn
           | than going out, at least.
        
           | samstave wrote:
           | I remember one time, before Uber existed, I was flying to LAX
           | from SFO.
           | 
           | The cab from my apartment on Upper Market, in SF to SFO was
           | $65 before 'tip'. 13 miles.
           | 
           | The FLIGHT from SFO to LAX was $99.
           | https://i.imgur.com/uXCj3MR.png
           | 
           | After this, I had several Black Cars that I made contacts
           | with the drivers - and would call them for rides to SFO (I
           | flew out every sunday morning at 7am - and it was a nightmare
           | getting cabs (I was banned by several taxi companies in SF
           | because I would call three diff taxi services and 2 out of 3
           | would never show up... but apparently they shared dispatching
           | info because the dispatchers knew that my number was calling
           | multiple taxis... and the guy told me "your banned for
           | calling multiple cabs!" to which I replied "because you never
           | show up and I need to get to the airport (said in a George
           | Costanza voice))
           | 
           | Then Uber was born...
        
             | clairity wrote:
             | why not take bart, especially anywhere near market? it's
             | roughly $10 to either sfo or oak and pretty reliable.
             | 
             | in LA, the flyaway is affordable and relatively reliable
             | too, if your destination is near downtown, or on the red or
             | orange lines.
        
             | asciimike wrote:
             | I paid $65.28 (before tip) for a Lyft from downtown to SFO
             | last night (14.27 miles), for a $120 flight to DEN.
             | 
             | I'd like to think that Uber/Lyft changed the industry for
             | the better (and in many ways they did: app is easier,
             | upfront pricing, easier/safer payment, more accountability
             | through location tracking and ratings), but I don't think
             | that the underlying economics have changed all that much
             | (other than the period of time where Sand Hill Road was
             | footing half the bill).
        
           | diebeforei485 wrote:
           | I usually took LIRR from JFK when I visited NYC, which is
           | faster and more comfortable than the subway and often faster
           | than Uber/taxi. Penn Station is convenient for most of
           | Manhattan, and Atlantic Terminal is good enough for the parts
           | of Brooklyn I typically stayed at.
           | 
           | A bit more expensive than the subway, especially during peak
           | hours, but worth it IMO.
        
           | systemvoltage wrote:
           | People from the 1950's would be shocked at today's
           | infrastructure progress in the US. "What!?? You guys are
           | still traveling at the same or worse speeds 70 years later!?
           | What happened?"
           | 
           | Also, it took 2x the cost and 8 years to build an access
           | bridge to Golden Gate bridge than it did to build the bridge
           | itself (3.5 years in 1930s) accounting for inflation.
           | 
           | Our government is so dysfunctional, it is hard to imagine
           | where my taxes are going. I live in Bay Area - No solution to
           | homelessness here, pot holes everywhere, trash on highways
           | that sometimes make me wonder if I am in a developing nation,
           | new construction is a forgotten concept, complete gridlock in
           | the CA gov for issuing permits of any high rises or building
           | new subway systems, security and crime through the roof, etc.
           | 
           | I am extremely against everything about CA government. It is
           | rotten to the deepest core. Anything it does bites dust. The
           | entrepreneur spirit and its natural beauty is what's keeping
           | it relevant. There is no point in voting any of these people
           | out, because the replacement is exactly the same kind of
           | people. Besides the tech industry, people here have no
           | optimism, they're more pro China than pro US, mostly busy
           | destroying this great state.
        
             | iso1210 wrote:
             | > There is no point in voting any of these people out,
             | because the replacement is exactly the same kind of people
             | 
             | So why don't you stand?
        
               | LeanderK wrote:
               | > So why don't you stand?
               | 
               | I am not an american, so I wonder whether it's realistic?
               | I imagine the US as a 2 party system, so if you're
               | unsatisfied with the performance with one party and
               | unable to vote for the other because of their actual
               | political stance...what are you're left with? In germany
               | we have a spectrum of pasties and therefore i have second
               | choice, a choice to build up pressure against the party I
               | am unsatisfied with even if I feel like I belong to this
               | party. What do you do? Vote for independents? Do they
               | even stand a chance?
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | > In germany we have a spectrum of pasties and therefore
               | i have second choice
               | 
               | That's obviously a typo but, in this context, it's
               | hilarious.
        
               | iso1210 wrote:
               | With a two party system you join one of them and you
               | stand for election to be that candidate.
               | 
               | I'm no expert on San Francisco politics, but looking at
               | this
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_San_Francisco_mayoral_
               | spe...
               | 
               | suggests the mayor is elected
               | 
               | 1) From non partisan choices (Although as it's SF I
               | suspect most will have Democrat leanings)
               | 
               | 2) Using an instant runnoff / ranked choice or similar
               | situation
               | 
               | The recent election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Sa
               | n_Francisco_mayoral_ele...
               | 
               | Shows that people seem happy with the current mayor
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_San_Francisco_Board_of
               | _Su...
               | 
               | Shows that the "board of supervisors" is an instant
               | runoff too, OK not brilliant, but far better than FPTP.
               | People don't even bother running in many situations --
               | district 9 for example. 16,000 votes would have won that
               | election.
               | 
               | Now OK if you aren't eligible to stand for election that
               | can be a problem, but surely you find people with similar
               | views than you and build a campaign (if you can't find
               | them, then your complaints really are fringe).
               | 
               | Complaining about politicians all being the same is easy.
               | Doing something about it isn't terribly hard though - not
               | at a local level, if there's really a problem. Personal
               | 100,000 SF residents to vote for you and you're in as
               | mayor. Persuade 20,000 and you're a council member. Of
               | course once you have pwoer you then need to fix the
               | problems, and that's often far harder than posting a rant
               | online.
        
               | Talanes wrote:
               | The election that you picked lacked any credible
               | candidates outside of London Breed: the rest had spent
               | their shot during the special election after Ed Lee's
               | death.
               | 
               | In the previous election, she controversially was given
               | the role of acting mayor and held it through the
               | election, giving her a huge boost of energy from people
               | who were willing to just let her stay since she was
               | already there.
               | 
               | > Persuade 20,000 and you're a council member.
               | 
               | Well, it's slightly trickier than that. Supervisor
               | elections are district-based, so you need to capture a
               | specific subset of San Francisco's voters. (And we call
               | them Supervisors rather than council members as they
               | serve as both city and county representatives for the
               | combined city/county structure of San Francisco.)
        
             | Macha wrote:
             | To be fair, 11 people died in the construction of the
             | Golden Gate bridge, and many bridges of the era fell down
             | due to insufficient safety standards. It's not like there
             | are no benefits to the extra time of modern construction
        
               | whiddershins wrote:
               | That's basically saying we made zero progress at all in
               | nearly a century, we just have different values.
               | 
               | This is incomprehensible. Building bridges should be 100x
               | as safe, cost 1/10th, and be done in 1/2 the time, by
               | now.
        
               | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
               | > Building bridges should be 100x as safe, cost 1/10th,
               | and be done in 1/2 the time, by now.
               | 
               | This seems like the sort of thing that only a software
               | engineer would say. So please, tell me that's not your
               | job.
        
               | systemvoltage wrote:
               | Mate, can we start by honestly and openly criticizing the
               | current situation? If we're not even able to criticize
               | it, reform feels like a distant fantasy. 90 years a very
               | long time. We invented transistors to deep learning.
               | Computer-tech has seen tremendous innovation. Physical
               | world is completely in a death grip of regulations. I am
               | actually fine with regulations where they make sense.
               | 
               | But, it all starts by not throwing rocks at each other
               | and name calling. It starts with deep introspection of
               | our policies. Try asking your fellow neighbor if they can
               | criticize their own party - you'll be met with blank
               | stares and profound confusion.
        
               | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
               | Why would bridges EVER be 100x safer? Twice as safe would
               | be a huge transformation for any mechanical engineering
               | project. 100x is the sort of process that happens over
               | centuries, and is probably asymptotic (there's a limit to
               | how safe any physical object in the world can ever be).
               | 
               | Cost 1/10th? Why? The materials haven't become massively
               | more available (or changed significantly). The technology
               | and therefore the labor involved in building large scale
               | civil infrastructure hasn't changed much in at least a
               | century, which you seem to view with alarm rather than
               | the idea that maybe we're pretty good at it. Costs due to
               | regulations represent the growing importance of values
               | other than "get it done as cheaply and quickly as
               | possible".
               | 
               | Take 1/2 the time? Why? The physical world isn't amenable
               | to the same sort of reconceptualization that symbolic
               | computation allows. Although the numbers and materials
               | have changed over time (e.g. the arrival of the iron
               | bridge, or suspension systems), the changes generally
               | involve trading off mass (e.g. compared to stone bridges)
               | versus complexity and precision. Why would anyone expect
               | this to reduce construction time by 50%?
               | 
               | And yes, software has seen incredible strides forward. At
               | the same time, sending someone a file is still an
               | enormous challenge for most computer users, most software
               | has failed to incorporate at least 50% of what we've
               | learned about UX over the last 40 years, and most of it
               | is still riddled with bugs that are not that hard to
               | find. So we have to be a little careful throwing stones
               | at those who build material objects.
        
               | whiddershins wrote:
               | To clarify I meant 100x as safe for the workers.
        
               | TigeriusKirk wrote:
               | Going back to gp's question, though...
               | 
               | Can you openly and honestly criticize the current
               | situation?
               | 
               | Not defend, not provide explanations for, but openly
               | address and describe problems that exist?
        
               | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
               | I think there's huge room for criticism. But my starting
               | point would not "it should be 100x safer, 1/10th the
               | price, 1/2 the time".
               | 
               | There have been some excellent links here on HN over the
               | last year or two (at least) about difficulties in the USA
               | in particular with civil engineering projects. I would
               | defer to their much-more informed authors (and the often
               | great comment threads here) regarding these matters.
               | Clearly, things are "not right" with the time and cost of
               | those projects in the USA relative to elsewhere in the
               | world.
               | 
               | If we were discussing "world best" rather than US-
               | specific, then I'm not so sure if there's the same need
               | for criticism.
        
               | whiddershins wrote:
               | If you see the multiple orders of magnitude reduction in
               | cost to launch satellites we've seen recently, as a
               | result of reusing landable rocket stages, how can you
               | been so bearish on physical engineering improvements?
               | 
               | Even computing advancements are technically a physical
               | engineering triumph, taking the form of increased
               | precision in chip creation.
        
               | systemvoltage wrote:
               | This is the exact defeatism that I am refering to. We had
               | 90 years to invent safe and fast measures to build
               | infrastructure. We have failed and its not because it is
               | technically infeasable.
        
         | adrian_b wrote:
         | I do not know if this was also true in USA, but in many
         | European countries, more than one hundred years ago, but still
         | also when I was a child, in the rural areas people used to set
         | their clocks at the correct hour when they heard the train
         | passing.
         | 
         | For some reason, unlike in the old times and despite the
         | advanced technology that we have now, wide variations in the
         | train arrival times have become common in many countries, even
         | if not so extreme as in USA. (Even in Germany, which in the
         | past had a reputation for punctuality.)
         | 
         | Perhaps the train companies have become too greedy and they no
         | longer allocate the appropriate funds for maintenance, like in
         | the old times.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | midasuni wrote:
           | In europe the infrastructure is run far more intensively than
           | in the past, a 60 second delay at a station while someone
           | holds the doors has a knock on at a busy junction which leads
           | to 20 minute delays 100 miles away for the next few hours,
           | just like someone cutting in on an interstate can cause a
           | brake wave causing delays an hour later 20 miles away.
           | 
           | This intensiveness is to transport the largest number of
           | people possible.
        
         | checkyoursudo wrote:
         | I just looked for an approximately similar trip in terms of
         | distance and dates in Germany. On Monday morning Nov 15, you
         | could take a train from Munich to Heidelberg starting at 23.90
         | euros (one way), while the first-class ticket (one way) appears
         | to be 33.90 euros.
         | 
         | Why are Amtrak tickets so expensive?
        
           | tyrfing wrote:
           | That's slightly over the distance of PDX-SEA on the west
           | coast, which is currently available for $28-47 depending on
           | capacity. The equivalent bus trip (Greyhound) costs $22.
           | 
           | The vast majority of people just drive instead. People doing
           | anything except driving is unusual.
        
           | sokoloff wrote:
           | I suspect largely because the ridership is so low. There were
           | 3.5 million total Acela passengers in 2019 (chosen to avoid
           | COVID effects on volume).
           | 
           | Acela is only part of the Amtrak service offering, but it's
           | the part they tout as being the best Amtrak has to offer.
           | Total Amtrak volume was around 32.5 million trips in 2019
           | (unclear if a round trip is 1 or 2 trips, but I assume 2).
           | 
           | In any case, that's slightly under 1 train trip (however they
           | are counting it) per 10 US residents per year.
           | 
           | From quick googling, the German comparables seem to be 151
           | million long-distance train trips for around 83 million
           | people, or around 5x the total usage and 20x the per-capita
           | usage.
        
           | spicybright wrote:
           | If you converted Euros to USD based on today's exchange rate,
           | that's
           | 
           | 23.90 EUR = 27.61 USD
           | 
           | 33.90 EUR = 39.16 USD
           | 
           | As an american that's the lowest I've seen _any_ kind of
           | train ticket regardless of distance.
        
             | cozzyd wrote:
             | Chicago to Milwaukee is ~$25, though that's only 90 miles.
        
               | spicybright wrote:
               | 20 bucks from suburbs to boston round trip. ~18 miles one
               | way.
        
           | bobthepanda wrote:
           | Amtrak charges the market clearing price. There is quite
           | frankly a fuckton of demand in the Northeast corridor with
           | its 52 million residents along the one line, and not a whole
           | lot of rail capacity due to the fact that Amtrak barely has
           | money to keep the lights on and the NEC is 100+ years old and
           | in need of significant capacity upgrades. (There are only two
           | tracks connecting New York to the entire south and west of
           | the country, for example.)
           | 
           | Even at the very high Amtrak prices the trains run full.
        
         | hakfoo wrote:
         | I think the Acela is comically more expensive than conventional
         | Amtrak though. They only offer the premium class seats with
         | comical levels of legroom.
         | 
         | I took it once in 2016 (Washington-Baltimore) and it was $45
         | one way, and the conventional, ACS-64 and Amfleet coaches
         | return trip was $15.
        
         | throwawaysea wrote:
         | Are these shared rails with freight priority? I think that is a
         | key issue with Amtrak service in most of the country. It is a
         | halfway investment that deters further investment due to its
         | poor quality of service but with dedicated infrastructure it
         | would be very different in performance.
        
         | bwanab wrote:
         | Your experience in flying between NYC and Boston on a Friday
         | afternoon/evening flight must be really different from mine.
         | I've spent hours in one or the other airport at times waiting
         | for god knows what "equipment" to become available.
         | 
         | The other side of the coin is that I find I can get a lot of
         | work (or book reading, or movie watching) done with a beer in
         | my hand on the train.
         | 
         | Obviously different people have different preferences, but I
         | wonder sometimes if our preconceived preferences affect our
         | perception of the real events we've experienced - that includes
         | my own to be sure.
        
         | dylan604 wrote:
         | >That would cost $157 plus two Ubers
         | 
         | Depending on market, those two Ubers could nearly double the
         | ticket price. I just checked my app, and a ride to the airport
         | is $53. It won't be any cheaper coming home. Just a reminder
         | that you can't really just write off the cost of the Ubers.
         | nevermind the hassle of just dealing with airports
        
           | Talanes wrote:
           | GP does have $149 worth of wiggle room to fit those two Ubers
           | in and have their point still work, so I think not trying to
           | exactly estimate their prices was fine.
        
             | dylan604 wrote:
             | Yes, I can do the arithmetic. $300 for a train ticket or
             | $150 + $50+ + $50+ is only ~$50 off. Plus, the hassle of
             | TSA x2 airports twice. My point is that, all things
             | considered, the price difference really isn't that great
             | and can be even smaller depending on the flex pricing of
             | Uber. I wasn't trying to quibble over a couple of dollars.
        
         | _delirium wrote:
         | Interesting, my experience for NYC-DC is completely different.
         | It's pretty much always on time, at most 15-20 minutes late, at
         | least if you buy NE Regional or Acela. I do avoid buying
         | northbound tickets on long-distance routes that originate way
         | off (e.g. the Crescent from New Orleans, or Palmetto from
         | Savannah), since they can get delayed way before they get to
         | DC. I've been taking it every other week or so since August. I
         | didn't realize NYC-Boston was that much worse. I also buy my
         | tickets way in advance (my schedule is predictable, and Amtrak
         | is offering free changes currently anyway) so usually pay
         | around $30 for the NE Regional or $70 for the Acela each way,
         | which is an amazing deal compared to flying (or even driving).
        
           | bink wrote:
           | My experience was similar to yours. It's been a few years but
           | I used to commute weekly from DC to NY. Sometimes I'd take
           | the Acela and sometimes the regional, depending on price. I
           | never had an issue either way. My biggest inconvenience was
           | the shitty waiting area and mob of people at Penn Station,
           | but even that was better than the TSA lines at the airport
           | (or the dreaded Dulles people mover _shudder_ ).
        
         | namdnay wrote:
         | The solution seems quite obvious: a big tax on flights,
         | reinvested in rail infrastructure. At some point we have to
         | help the market find lower carbon solutions, what better way
         | than replacing short haul flights with trains?
        
           | sokoloff wrote:
           | If you want to tax net carbon emissions, I'm all ears and,
           | unless you work very hard to come up with an intentionally
           | terrible plan, I'm very supportive.
           | 
           | If you instead want to tax specific conveniences to help
           | inconvenient services survive despite their inconvenience and
           | lack of improvement, well, let's just say that I'm
           | significantly less receptive.
        
             | crooked-v wrote:
             | Most of the major issues with Amtrak in the US come down to
             | not actually having control over the track that's in use,
             | and that's never going to be fixed without a real big money
             | infusion.
        
           | jazzyjackson wrote:
           | surprisingly flying is not that much worse per passenger
           | mile, really depends on occupancy. A full flight can be just
           | as efficient as a half empty train. (EDIT: consider how many
           | passenger miles you get from one flight from NYC to LA, vs
           | running two 1000hp diesel engines for 4 days for a similar
           | number of passengers)
           | 
           | pollution is a different story, the new amtrak fleet is very
           | clean burning, and doesn't dump jet fuel into the ocean, so
           | that's a plus.
        
             | laurencerowe wrote:
             | Where are your figures from? For electrified lines like the
             | NEC emissions will depend a lot on the grid's generation
             | mix. For various routes from London the train emits 10-15%
             | per passenger of an equivalent flight:
             | https://www.seat61.com/CO2flights.htm
        
               | jazzyjackson wrote:
               | You're right, electrified lines are very good. The
               | majority of Amtrak's routes are diesel.
               | 
               | I don't keep notes on where I read what, but this BBC
               | article is fairly thorough, and puts electric trains at
               | 40 grams carbon per passenger mile, diesel trains at 90g,
               | long haul flights at 102g, and short flights at 133g. It
               | mentions that occupancy is a factor but doesn't say if
               | those numbers assume full occupancy or are averaged out
               | over actual ridership.
               | 
               | https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49349566
        
         | jghn wrote:
         | I like the idea of the BOS-NYC Amtrak. When there aren't delays
         | it's fantastic. More pleasant trip than flying, no security
         | theater, and I'm right in the middle of the city when I arrive.
         | 
         | But to your point, more than half the time I take that trip
         | there's some delay on the rails, usually in the CT corridor.
        
           | Redoubts wrote:
           | Yeah they usually have to wait for Metro North CT trains to
           | move on from commuter stations.
        
           | sokoloff wrote:
           | The _idea_ is fantastic. The _reality_ is not.
        
             | throwaway0a5e wrote:
             | The reality is so bad that people would rather ride the
             | Fung Wa bus.
        
               | hawaiianbrah wrote:
               | Oh man! I remember riding fung wa over a decade ago. Wow,
               | time flies.
        
           | micromacrofoot wrote:
           | they're also speed limited in that CT area because it's a
           | residential area iirc, so it's not even full speed service
        
             | bobthepanda wrote:
             | Well the commuter trains don't run at the Acela speeds, and
             | even if they did they stop and go more often. If you were
             | to run the Acelas even faster that would mostly have the
             | effect of bumping into the commuter trains in front more
             | often. The only way to do this would be to run less
             | commuter trains, but those trains are fairly busy, and also
             | run by the actual owner of the tracks.
             | 
             | Amtrak's various unfunded fantasies for upgrading the
             | corridor have usually included a dedicated pair of tracks
             | for Amtrak for a reason. (I say fantasy because the
             | proposals are always in the $115B+ range and every time I
             | blink the number is probably going up, and that is an order
             | of magnitude more money than Amtrak has ever had in its
             | life.)
        
               | mst wrote:
               | "Not having a system where trains can pass each other
               | usefully" is, from a european perspective, exceedingly
               | strange.
        
               | bobthepanda wrote:
               | There are four tracks, but they are shared by local
               | commuter services, rapid commuter services, intercity
               | regional services, and the actual high speed trains.
               | 
               | To put this in context, by the time suburban development
               | started in earnest in the US, the private railroads were
               | in free-fall after the war. It took until the '70s for
               | Amtrak to put the (passenger) divisions of said railroads
               | out of their misery, and Nixon did not anticipate Amtrak
               | surviving the decade; Amtrak was supposed to decline out
               | of existence. It never quite did that, but it also never
               | quite got back on its feet, and so now the passenger
               | rails are quite lacking.
        
               | Tsiklon wrote:
               | In London on the main lines out of the main termini it's
               | usually 4 tracks abreast with commuter services +
               | stopping services taking one pair of tracks and express +
               | intercity services taking the other pair for in and
               | outbound services. High speed railways (greater than 250
               | km/h (155 mph)) are a different story usually running on
               | bespoke track.
               | 
               | Is that not the case in the Northeast Corridor?
        
               | bobthepanda wrote:
               | There are two tracks leading from Manhattan to the west
               | and south of the country. These tracks are shared between
               | both commuter trains from the New Jersey suburbs
               | (population 4.5 million) and Amtrak. Elsewhere, there are
               | still two tracks in places.
               | 
               | The particular problem segment being discussed here does
               | have four tracks, but it has commuter, regional, and
               | intercity services. This is causing congestion problems;
               | IIRC UK HS2 is being built because of a similar problem
               | where they need to get the intercity trains out of the
               | way of fast regional services.
        
               | jcranmer wrote:
               | The New Haven-New Rochelle stretch of track is a 4 track
               | corridor. You'd run the intercity trains on the inner
               | tracks and the regional trains on the outer tracks.
               | However, I don't think Metro North has ever successfully
               | had all 4 tracks in operation at the same time...
        
         | jcranmer wrote:
         | > riding on the crown jewel of the Amtrak network: Northeast
         | corridor Acela.
         | 
         | It is worth pointing out that it's unanimously agreed that the
         | worst part of the NEC is the Connecticut segment, especially
         | New Haven-New Rochelle, as Metro North is responsible for the
         | dispatching there and they do not do Amtrak any favors. Every
         | time I'm riding Amtrak on that segment, it feels like the train
         | is stuck behind some pokey local commuter rail rather than
         | expressing around it, and this is not something I ever felt on
         | the MARC, SEPTA, NJT, or MBTA portions of the line.
        
           | dantheman wrote:
           | It'd be great if Amtrack could improve its only profitable
           | line instead of using it subsidize all the ones that lose
           | money.
        
         | jonas21 wrote:
         | A few years back, I commuted almost every week between Boston
         | and NYC on Amtrak (~80 trips total) and had a very different
         | experience.
         | 
         | I took the NE Regional instead of Acela because it was $49 each
         | way and only ~30 minutes longer than Acela. With the exception
         | of blizzards (which wreaked havoc on everything), there were
         | only a handful of times the train didn't arrive within 30
         | minutes of schedule (a delay of 10-20 minutes was pretty normal
         | - but I just factored that into my schedule).
         | 
         | In that period, I flew the same trip maybe 5 or 6 times, and
         | that was more unpredictable. Once, my flight was delayed by
         | over an hour. Another time, I spent almost two hours in a Lyft
         | getting from JFK into Manhattan due to construction.
         | 
         | Plus, there was the stress of trying to get to the airport on
         | time on both ends. And worrying about whether there'd be a line
         | at security, and trying to figure out what I'd do if I missed
         | my flight. On the other hand getting to South Station and Penn
         | Station was easy, I could walk right onto the train, and if I
         | thought I was going to miss a train, I could just switch my
         | ticket to the next one.
        
       | musesum wrote:
       | Housemate is working on solar pod-cars - think of it package-
       | switched trains (as opposed to circuit switched)
       | 
       | Takeaway from our conversations: highest pain point is
       | floodplains. Like Jakarta, which is sinking. Like Houston, after
       | Harvey.
        
       | malchow wrote:
       | For those interested in software in this space: https://cedar.ai.
        
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